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‘ergy Strategy Reviews 33 (2021) 100578 Contents lists a lable at ScienceDisest Energy Strategy Reviews ELSEVIER Journal homepage: hitp:/Wwww.elsevier.comilocatelesr ‘A whole-economy Deep Decarbonization Pathway for Mexico Daniel Buira"’, Jordi Tovilla*, Jamil Farbes”, Ryan Jones”, Ben Haley”, Dennis Gastelum" Tops anaitea AG Meso * bed Brow Reseach USA ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT ower “Mexico's curent climate change policy ses the country on a development pathway which is inconsistent with Deep denronizaton pathways the goals ofthe Paris Agreement. The Deep Decarboniztion methodology has been usod 19 develop an alter native whole economy pathway to 2050 consistent with limiting warming to Between 15 and 2°C above pe. Industrial times, covering energy and non-nergy sectors and achieving comparable population and GDP growth to those expected from current pois. n this pathway, renewable electricity subsites fossil fel as he main energy source before 2040, urban regulation and infartrocure favor public transport wile electri ‘ohlles are rap rolled out to both public and private fet, and improved agricultural and forest manage ment practices reduce emissions and inrease absorptions. Rapid uptake of renewable electricity and electri ‘ehieles wil require decisive policy action, and the resulting reductions in ol and gas demand will require {Changes to fal policy and industrial eretegy. This work i part ofthe "Deep Decarbonization Pathray for Lan Ameria ciate poley esi Climate paiey essa Climate change Long tem ciate rte Lain America” project. 1. Introduction 1.1, Mexico and the Parl agreement ‘The Paris Agreement and the need for DDP planning. In 2015, the Paris Agreement established a colletive alm to limit the global tem- perature increase to between 1.5 and 2°C above that of pre-industrial times. Parties agreed to communicate and implement Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) which describe their planned actions to achieve their part of the deal. The Agreement also laid out an “ambition mechanism” that is expected to achieve a “ratcheting up” of imate action within a five-year cycle, witha view to aligning country ‘commitments to the long-term global goal over time. The Agreement further urges Parties to formulate Long Term Strategies (LTS) to struc: ture their own low-emissions development pathway and provide a po fey instrument laying out the planned steps to achieve carbon neutrality by mid-century. ‘The 2018 publication ofthe 1PCC Special Report on Global Warming ‘of 1.5°C presents updated information regarding the time available to ‘achieve the Pars Agreement goals. Coneretely, it states that global 2030, ‘emissions must be 45% lower than those of 2010, for which unprece ‘dented transformational change must begin immediately. I also states * Corresponding author that existing NDC commitments from 2020 through to-2030 (or 2025 in Some cases) fall so short of the required transformation that their implementation will make the 1.5°C target impossible to achieve, since they will delay many urgent deeper changes until 2030 at the earliest. ‘The IPCC urges countries to plan decarbonization pathways so thatthe NDC updates expected by 2020 can be made compatible with such pathways All countries should thus be called upon to consider the best avail: able science and policy planning techniques as guides to their work, even if this implies a significant departure from accepted policy-making approaches, aiming to achieve economic and social development goals while reducing emissions within a shorter timeframe than previously planned. ‘The DDP-LAC project fits neatly into this context. By enabling research teams from six countries of the Latin America and Caribbean (LAO) region to generate decarbonization pathways for their countries aligned with the IPCC recommendations in a manner which engages with policymakers, this technical work ean provide timely inputs to national NDC updates and LTS formulation processes. ‘Mexico's NDC and LTS in the context of Paris. Mexico's response to the Paris Agreement, as presented within its NDC (March 2015) and Its Mid-Century Strategy (November 2016), sets out a number of Ball dire: dont bula@tempos-analiica. og, daniel bulra@gmail.com (D-Burs), ord tolla@tempusanalitcaorg (J. Tvl, ml farbes evolved. ‘nergy G. Farbe) yan onesqevolved.energy (R Jones, ben hley@evolved energy (8. Maly) dennsgatelim gmail.com (B Gast). pe: /dok.org/10.1016/jest:2020.100578 Received 31 March 2020; Recelved in revised frm 29 July 2020; Acepted 22 October 2020, ‘Available online 9 nary 2021 2211-4874/© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elser Le. This san open aces article under the GC BY license p//

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