BIA/Kelsey’s Deal-a-Day

Forecast, 2010-2015
Marketplaces
March 2, 2011

EXCERPT
Introduction

 The deal-a-day industry has experienced incredible growth during its

three-year incubation period (2008-2011).
 Groupon and LivingSocial are well ahead of the pack of 200-plus
players. The broader field includes destination sites and white labels
working with local media.
 Deal-a-day growth may result in some shift in local media spending.
 Volume will increase, but growth rates will taper off:
– With increased volume and industry development, users will be
better targeted by geographic and demographic needs.
– The novelty of untraditional deals will fade and e-mail open rates
will fall. New users will be more representative of the population
but less passionate than the current core of “college educated
women.”

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3 Scenarios: Low End, Most Likely
and Optimistic
 As of March 1, 2011, BIA/Kelsey estimates there are 178 cities with
deal-a-day sites reaching 102 million people in the United States.
 Our 2010 estimate of domestic deal-a-day gross revenues is $873
million.
 We see three cases for growth from 2011 through 2015: low end,
most likely and optimistic.
 Differences in three cases:
– Growth in number of cities/sites
– Growth in number of registered users
– Number of transactions per year for average user
– Growth in average price per transaction over period

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 Deal-a-Day U.S. Gross Revenues: Most
Likely
$3,934
4,000

3,500
$3,076
3,000
$2,339
2,500
US$ Millions

2,000 $1,730

1,500 $1,246
+35.1% CAGR
$873
1,000

500

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: BIA/Kelsey (2011)

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 All 3 Cases: Deal-a-Day U.S. Gross
Revenues

7,000
Optimistic
$6,073
6,000 Most Likely
Low End
5,000
$3,934
US$ Millions

4,000

3,000
$2,141
2,000

$873
1,000

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: BIA/Kelsey (2011)

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Media Contacts:
Eileen Pacheco | eileen@tango-group.com | 508.888.7478
Robert Udowitz | rudowitz@bia.com | 703.621.8060

Copyright © 2011 BIA/Kelsey. All Rights Reserved.

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