You are on page 1of 48

Accepted Manuscript

Is all politics local? Regional political risk in Russia and the panel of stock
returns

Savva Shanaev, Binam Ghimire

PII: S2214-6350(18)30149-7
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2018.11.002
Reference: JBEF 174

To appear in: Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance

Received date : 29 October 2017


Revised date : 12 October 2018
Accepted date : 1 November 2018

Please cite this article as: Shanaev S. and Ghimire B., Is all politics local? Regional political risk in
Russia and the panel of stock returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance (2018),
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2018.11.002

This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to
our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo
copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form.
Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the
content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.
   
  
    

Savva Shanaev

 "2*16 -% 20(,$00 ,#  4 -/1'2+!/(  ,(3$/0(16 (16  +.20  01
 $4" 01*$2.-,

6,$
,(1$#(,&#-+

+ (* ##/$000 33 0' , $36 ,#$5/2

Binam Ghimire

 "2*16 -% 20(,$00 ,#  4 -/1'2+!/(  ,(3$/0(16 (16  +.20  01
 $4" 01*$2.-,

6,$
,(1$#(,&#-+

+ (* ##/$00!(, +&'(+(/$,-/1'2+!/(  "2)

  

'(0012#6(,3$01(& 1$01'$./$0$,"$-%.-*(1(" */(0)./$+(  +-,& *(01$#"-+. ,($0%/-+ 

200( , /$&(-,0 -3$/  %(3$6$ / .$/(-# 



 
 0(,&  /$&(-, * .-*(1(" * 01 !(*(16

0"-/$,-1 3 (* !*$(,1'$*(1$/ 12/$1'(0. .$/ ..*($0. ,$*# 1  ../- "'1-$3(#$,"$1'$./("(,&

-%/$&(-, *.-*(1(" */(0)(,%-/+0-%*-,&1$/+.-*(1(" *(,01 !(*(16./$+(2+2.1-  +-,1'

*6 ,# 0'-/11$/+ (+. "10'-") ./$+(2+ '$ %(,#(,&0 (,#(" 1$ 1' 1 /$&(-, * .-*(1(" * /(0) (0

+-/$ (+. "1%2* 1' , "-2,1/64(#$ -/ (,1$/, 1(-, * /(0) ,# 1' 1 /$&(-, * .-*(1(" * ./-"$00$0 /$

"/2"( *%-/1'$2,#$/01 ,#(,&-%1'$06,"'/-,(0 1(-,-%01-")/$12/,04(1'!/- #$/+ /)$10

    


 

200( ,01-") + /)$1.-*(1(" */(0)$+$/&(,& + /)$10/$&(-, *.-*(1("0/(0)./("

(,&. ,$*# 1  , *60(0


   
  
    

  

(()*-#+())()%'(#$%$!)!'( %'""$# !()$"%#('$" 

*((#'$#($+'+-'%'$

 
(#*#&*()$'$#!%$!)

!()!)-($')(%%'%%!(%#!)%%'$)$+#)%'#$'$#!%$

!)!'( #$'"($!$#)'"%$!)!#()!)-%'"*"*%)$  "$#)!-#($')

)'""%)($ %'"*"##(#)))'$#!%$!)!'( ("$'"%)*!

)#$*#)'-,$'#)'#)$#!'( #))'$#!%$!)!%'$(((''*!$')*#

'()##$)(-#'$#()$#$()$ ')*'#(,)'$'"' )(

    


 

*((#()$  "' )%$!)!'( "'# "' )('$#!%$!)('( %'

#%#!)#!-((



   
6-:9-/165)37631;1+)391:2)..-+;:;6+24)92-;9-;<95:$0-56;)*3-9-+-5;7631+@:01.;:

)5,7631;1+)37-9;<9*);165:15;0-%;0-%#)5,#7)15$0-')33#;9--;6<95)3
)
*


)
* )5, ;0- )::6+1);-, 4)92-; 46=-: +3-)93@ :06> ;0- 147)+;.<3 +0)5/-: 7631;1+)3

91:2:+)5*915/15)5-+6564@5;01:7)7-9>-796=1,-14769;)5;-=1,-5+-65;01:;671+*@)5)

3@:15/"<::1)59-/165)37631;1+)391:2)5,:;6+24)92-;,);)

515=-:;69>1;0)"<::1)*):-,769;.63166.:;6+2:1:=-9@312-3@;6/)156936:-4<3;173-

,1/1;:<4:6=-9;0-+6<9:-6.,)@:69-=-506<9::<*:-8<-5;;67631;1+)391:2-=-5;:69-?)473-

15
):0269;6:;)5*):-,613796,<+-9):05-.;!#0):9)71,3@36:;  6.1;:4)92-;

=)3<- ).;-9 ;0- )556<5+-4-5; 6. 1;: 5);165)31:);165 644-9:)5;


 5 ;0- :)4- @-)9 ;0-

>063- 4)92-; 73<44-;-, ,6>5 ,<- ;6 ;0- %29)51)5 +91:1: )5, ;0- 15;-95);165)3 :)5+;165:

 1=696A0215 )5, ):;)/5-;61::-@


 -*-,-= *9)/146= )5, 52<,156=
 6>

-=-97631;1+)315:;)*131;@-4*-,:<7:1,-):>-33):,6>5:1,-91:26:;9-+-5;3@"<::1)515,<:

;91)3 +647)5@ ()>63A0:2@ 6;695@ ()=6, !# )5, -5-9/@ 796,<+-9 $ # 5-9/6 1A05@

6=/696,!#*6;0*):-,15 1A05@ 6=/696,6*3):;


:6)9-,<7 
)5,
 9-

:7-+;1=-3@>1;015):15/3-;9),15/,)@;1:7<AA315/>0@;0-:;6+2791+-:6.;>6+647)51-:.964

,1..-9-5;:-+;69:)779-+1);-,:69)71,3@15;0-)*:-5+-6.)5@9-3-=)5;4)+96-+65641+5->:69

*96), :;6+2 4)92-; 46=-4-5;: 9/<)*3@ ;0- 653@ -?73)5);165 3-.; 1: ;0- ,1:41::)3 6. ;0- 9-

/165)3/6=-9569&)3-9@#0)5;:-=65 ;0#-7;-4*-9
644-9:)5;
)5;-9-:;15/3@

)346:;)51,-5;1+)3:;69@6++<99-,15#)4)9)6*3):;>0-51;:/6=-9569 1263)1-92<:0215>):

)3:6,1:41::-,644-9:)5;
*#<+0:0)9776:1;1=-:;6+2791+-9-:765:-:;6/6=-95699-:

1/5);165:+)5*--?73)15-,15;-94:6.;0-796,<+;1=-7631;1+)3+0)5/-;0-69@)2-9)5,3664



6*3):;29)1)5,629</)9-<51;:6.),4151:;9);1=-,1=1:16515"<::1)


 $'$% #$%)!%%%%(!! %(%% #' &#! %

  '# %

$$%&*$%% $*$%%**$%! %#$)! $&# &$$

$% $( %#!#$%%'$! %*$%%&% %%

% &#%%*! %#$% #*%$%  ! $%& ! %!# $$$

 % $%  #% %  % ! % #$ !#&  % !%$  !#& $!#%

%&#%%* &%&#'%$# %%$ !$%&##%! %($ # '#%

$%&* $ % #$% %  !!#  % $$& #  % #  !#$!%'  #  #

$ ! %$%%*(%'#% $#$#%&##%#$%$ %$% $ % 

*%!# '$"&%%%'$%% $ ! %#$!#&$&%  %$!#

%% #$

## %!!#$ #$$  ($% #'($$&$$$%

)$%%#%&# ! %#$%$%&$ %&$$$% #%

%  % % $!%"&$&$#)!%#%   

!% $#*$% 
 &%$$&$$$%%   * %$%&*%  

!#$%$%$ %#$#*$%   &$

 
  

$ $%  ' !$  #'(  #'% %#%&# #% %  ! % #$ % # 

$%  #%&#$ & #'% $%&$  &$$ $%  #% % $  !# ! $$ '# &$ 

'%$*%$!!#% %!$%%# &%%#%&##'(!# $$

Political risk in the literature


"#'*),.() *)&#.#&-.#&#.3(#(-.#./.#)(&+/&#.3 ),)()'#( #((#&

0&)*'(."-(%()1&!#(."&#.,./, ),)0,.1)-()1)&#.#&-.#&

#.3#-*,)0(.)-#!(# #(..,'#((.) )()'#!,)1."&-#(.& ),)

0,(1#(-.#./.#)(&!,)1."."),#-.-*/.*)&#.#&#(-.#./.#)(-#(."(.,) ."#,2*&(.#)(

) ,)--)/(.,3# ,(-#(#()'')!&/)"(-)(()#(-)( (',))

()'# -.#&#.3 ')!&/ . & 


 #."**&#.#)( .) #((#& ',%.-#.#- 1#&3

*. .". ',!#(! -.)% ',%.- #(*)-.-)#&#-. )/(.,#-.".1, '),*)&#.#&&3-.&

/,#(! ." .,(-#.#)(,3 *,#) ($)3 -#!(# #(.&3 '), ,*# 0&)*'(. ,)..# ( (

#$(  )&#.#&,#-% #-  ,/#&.,'#((.)  ),*),. -.,.!3 ")#0( #(0&

)*)/(.,#--/"-*#(#'5(4/#-#)((#.)-),#)  1",#.#-)() 

."'$),#(.,(.#)(&#-.#)(,#0,-(.-./#--")1.".,#-% .),--)(+/&#..#0

.",.,#-.#) *)&#.#&#(-.#./.#)(--/"-)()'# ,)'('(#(! /&#(&/

-#)(-#(.)."2#-.#(!--.*,##(!')&-.)%,  -*)&#.#&*"()'("0().&

)()'#( #((#& .-)()."."'#,)(',)&0&-.",#-&,-)* ),."

-./3) *)&#.#&,#-%)(,*,-(..#0',!#(!',%.-/"-/--#

)&#.#&,#-%#- #(-."*)--##&#.3) "(!-#(.")()'#(0#,)('(./-

3.".#)(-) !)0,('(.--.),(,)(-#  %,(&))' 


" .

) *)&#.#&#(-.#./.#)(-(0(.-)(-.)%*, ),'(()(*./&&3-*,.#(.)polit-

ical risk premium 7 )0,&& /(,.#(.3 ,!,#(! /./, *)&#3 #-#)(- 7 ( impact-shock

premium 7.",-*)(-) ."-",*,#.),&0(.*)&#.#&,#-%0(.--.),(,)(-#


"#&)(."0&)*',%.-*)&#.#&,#-%#-')-.&3,*,-(.3."-)()'

*)((. -.), ( ,)(-# 


 ." ',!#(! ',%.- '3  -#!(# #(.&3 #( &/( 3

).".")'*)((.--#'/&.()/-&3)-.) ."'*#,#&*)&#.#&,#-%&#.,./, )/--#.",


105*'21.+5+%#.3+4-23'/+6/$:.11-+0)105*'417'3'+)0:+'.&423'#&4#421.+5+%#.3+4-2319+'4

4''(13'9#/2.''-#'35'5#.  133'#'5#.  13105*'+/2#%54*1%-23'/+6/$:

2'3(13/+0)'7'05456&+'4134536%563#.4*+(5#0#.:4+44''(13'9#/2.'*#0#0&"'+ +/

#0&'+ 13+#'7#0&10+0  '3'4'54-:  +7131;*-+0#0&#45#)0'51+44':

 '$'&'7'5#.  *+4456&:+/2317'462105*'23'7+164&'7'.12/'054+05*'(+'.&$:

+0%13213#5+0)$15*3+4-23'/+#4163%'4+051+54#0#.:4+4

0'1(5*'('8456&+'4+/2.+%+5.:+0%13213#5+0)21.+5+%#.3+4-<+/2#%54*1%-&+45+0%5+10

#.$'+510.:#4#5*16)*5'92'3+/'05+4#%.#44+%#.=23'4+&'05+#.26;;.'>2#2'3$:#05#.#3##0&

!#.-#017  
 *'+3 5*'13'5+%#. #2231#%* #..184 10' 51 &+45+0)6+4* $'58''0 7#.6' #&&+5+10

#0&3+4-23'/+# 1( '/1%3#5+% #0&'26$.+%#023'4+&'0%+'4 +0 5*' 0+5'& 5#5'4$: .11-+0) #5

451%- 23+%' ,6/24 8*'0 5*' 21.+%: 3')+/' %*#0)'4 ( 5*'3' +4 # 4+)0+(+%#05 #0& 46&&'0 451%-

23+%' 4*+(5 (1..18+0) 5*' 3')+/' %*#0)' 5*'0 5*' 1652'3(13/#0%' 13 60&'32'3(13/#0%' &63+0)

5*'45#$+.+5:1(5*'3')+/'%#0$'#553+$65'&513+4-(#%51345*'38+4'+5+47#.6'#&&+5+10'

42+5'#05#.#3##0&!#.-#017?4 
%10%.64+104*#7'$''03'%'05.:%*#..'0)'&$:#/13'

412*+45+%#5'&/+%31%'053+%456&:'.1#..##0&+ 
5*'+3(3#/'813-8*+%*5*+42#2'3

+0%13213#5'4 +4 45+.. '953'/'.: *'.2(6. +0 5*' #44'44/'05 1( 21.+5+%#. 3+4- #0& +/2#%54*1%-

23'/+#

Political effects on the stock market

*'5*'13'5+%#./1&'.4#0&'/2+3+%#.456&+'41(21.+5+%#.3+4-46))'455*#55*'(1..18+0)

21.+5+%#.'(('%54#3'1$4'37#$.'105*'451%-/#3-'5

Positive political risk premium0')#5+7'21.+5+%#.45#$+.+5:23'/+6/</13'6045#$.'

#0&60%'35#+021.+5+%#.'07+310/'0544*16.&231&6%'*+)*'3451%-3'56304#4513#0&!'310'4+

  
   /2+3+%#..: 5*+4 +4 /#+0.: 4''0 +0 417'3'+)0 :+'.& 423'#&4 '-#'35 '5 #.


 !23(%1%!1%5%17,)-)3%$1%')/.!,234$)%2/.0/,)3)#!,1)2+/.3(%23/#+-!1+%3(%234$7)2

$%$)#!3%$3/&),,).'3()2'!0

 Positive impact-shock premium 9 %5%.32 0/2)3)5%,7 .%'!3)5%,7 !&&%#3).' 23!"),)37

2(/4,$'%.%1!3%0/2)3)5%.%'!3)5%1%20/.2%).3(%23/#+01)#%!.3!,!1!!.$!,+!./5 


!23/1!.$%1/.%2) 
!+%1!.$,//- 
%')/.!,$)&&%1%.#%2).3(%)-0!#32(/#+

%&&%#3(!5%"%%.%5)$%.#%$"7(!.!.$ %) ).#!2%/&/.'/.'!.$-!).,!.$()

.!"!2%$#/-0!.)%2!.$!1'4!",7"7(!4%%2/-2!+!.$ !.'  &/12,!-)#!.$#/.

5%.3)/.!,23/#+2).3(%)$$,%!23!.$/13(%1.&1)#!.341.3()2234$7!)-2!33%23).'3()2

#,!)-/.!,!1'%12!-0,%&/1422)!6()#((!224"23!.3)!,,7()'(%11%')/.!,$)5%12)37


Synchronisation theory93(%)-01/5%-%.32).3(%0/,)3)#!,%.5)1/.-%.3).#1%!2%3(%

#/11%,!3)/./&3(%23/#+1%341.26)3("1/!$%1-!1+%32()2(70/3(%2)2)2-/1%/&3%.01%2%.3%$).

!&1!-%6/1+/&)$)/27.#1!3)#2723%-!3)#1)2+$)#(/3/-7,/60/,)3)#!,1)2+23/#+2!1%3)'(3,7#/1

1%,!3%$6)3(3(%-!1+%36(),%()'(0/,)3)#!,1)2+23/#+2!1%-/23,7!&&%#3%$"720%#)&)#1)2+%5%.32

(!4%3!,  %1%2%32+7  /6%5%1!.!,3%1.!3)5%27.#(1/.)2!3)/.3(%/17$%5%,/0%$

"7!23/1!.$%1/.%2)  &1/-3(%)14.#%13!).37!1'4-%.3#,!)-23(!3!.7#(!.'%).3(%0/

,)3)#!, %.5)1/.-%.3 9 %)3(%1 0/2)3)5% /1 .%'!3)5% 9 2(/4,$ ).#1%!2% 3(% ).3%1#/11%,!3)/. /& 23/#+

1%341.2(%&)123(70/3(%2)21%,!3%$3/)$)/27.#1!3)#2723%-!3)#1)2+$)#(/3/-76!21%*%#3%$&/1

3(%)$$,%!23!.$/13(&1)#!(!4%3!,  6(),%3(%1%)22/-%%5)$%.#%).)322400/13

&/1422)!%1%2%32+7  )5/1/8(+).!.$!23!'.%3/)22%7  (%1%&/1%3()2234$7

!)-2 3/ 3%23 3(% 27.#(1/.)2!3)/. 3(%/17 !00,)%$ 3/ 422)!. 23/#+ -!1+%3 -/1% 1)'/1/42,7 6(),%

31%!3).'3(%36/!001/!#(%2$%2#1)"%$!"/5%(%3%1/'%.%/42,7

Measuring political risk


)&2&"2&4)2&&./4"#,&"002/"$)&34/4)&-&"352&-&.4/'0/,*4*$",2*3+*2344)&*-0,*&%

0/,*4*$",2*3+02&-*5-$".#&"33&33&%15".4*4"4*6&,9#9$/-0"2*.(3/6&2&*(.#/.%9*&,%3&+"

&24&4",  &$/.%"35''*$*&.402/89$".#&$/-054&%53*.(-&%*"$/6&2"(&/'2&,&6".4

4/0*$3/2&8"-0,&"+&2&4",  %&6&,/0&%"0/,*$95.$&24"*.49*.%&8'/24)& $/5.429

0".&, *.$,5%*.(533*" #"3&%/. 4)& '2&15&.$9/' 6"2*/53 7/2%3 ".%$/,,/$"4*/.3 *..&730"

0&23*.",,90/,*4*$",2*3+$".",3/#&"$$/5.4&%'/2./.0"2"-&42*$",,94)2/5()&6&.4345%*&3/2

3425$452", 3)*'4 ".",93*3 )". ".% !&*   *- ".% &*  /2*"&6 ".% /.*.  

&2&3&43+9  *6/2/:)+*.".%"34"(.&4/*33&9  &#&%&6&4",   )&3&-&4)

/%3)/7&6&2)"6&3&2*/53,*-*4"4*/.3"33/6&2&*(.#/.%9*&,%32&',&$43/6&2&*(.$2&%*42*3+

$/5.42930&$*'*$&$/./-*$2*3+3".%4)&0)"3&/'4)&#53*.&33$9$,&&2./4)".%2%/(".  

"0"24'2/-0/,*4*$",2*3+3".%4)53%/./4",,/74/0&2'/2-".&15",(2/5.%".",93*3 5.$&2

4"*.49 *.%*$&3 #"3&% /.-&%*" $/6&2"(& -"92&',&$4 $/.35-&2 ".% -"2+&4 3&.4*-&.4 *. $"3&/'

-"$2/&$/./-*$".%34/$+-"2+&40)&./-&."2"4)&24)".2*3+*.&330&23&"+&2&4",   


./.0"2"-&42*$ &34*-"4*/.3 /' 0/,*4*$", 2*3+ 490*$",,9 '"*, 4/ 02/6*%& 2&,*"#,& ".% (&.&2",*3"#,&

15".4*4"4*6&&34*-"4*/.3/'2*3+02&-*"

%%2&33*.(4)&3&3)/24$/-*.(3/'4)&&8*34*.(,*4&2"452&4)*3345%954*,*3&3"%*''&2&.40/

,*4*$",2*3+-&"352&2&(*/.",0/,*4*$",34"#*,*49*.%&8%&6&,/0&%#9&4&23#52(/,*4*$35.%'/2

%&4"*,33&&"4"3&$4*/.#&,/77)*$),"2(&,9/6&2$/-&3",,4)2&&,*-*4"4*/.3/54,*.&%"#/6&

The Russian stock market in perspective

)&533*".34/$+-"2+&4".%*43%*34*.$4'&"452&3)"6&#&&.4)/2/5(),9345%*&%*.4)&,*4

&2"452&#9."4*6&".%'/2&*(."$"%&-*$3"4,&"343*.$&  .&/'4)&'*2342&35,4335((&3434)"4

4)& 533*". 34/$+ -"2+&4 7"3 7&"+'/2- &''*$*&.4 &6&. *. 4)& ,"4& ;3 ".% &"2,9 ;3


 )&"#*,*49/'0/,*4*$",2*3+*.%*$"4/23%&2*6&%'2/--&%*"$/6&2"(&4/&80,"*.34/$+2&452.6"2*"4*/.%&$2&"3&3*(
.*'*$".4,9"+&2&4",  "'4&2$/.42/,,*.('/23&.4*-&.42&02&3&.4&%#9*$)*("./.35-&2&.4*-&.4.%&8
".%"34)&2&*3./&15*6",&.43&.4*-&.4%"4"3&4'/2533*"4)*3"002/"$)*3"2(5"#,9*.35''*$*&.4'/24)*3345%9


#304*.07" *44"/"*,& "/% */084,*   / 1"35*$6-"3 5)&3& 8"4 /0 &7*%&/$& 0' 4*(/*'*

$"/5 "#/03."- 3&563/4 (&/&3"5&% #: .0.&/56. 453"5&(*&4 */ 5)&   
 1&3*0% 03*"&7

 5)"4"-40#&&/4)08/5)"5%63*/(  5)&644*"/450$,."3,&58"44-08-:#&

$0.*/(.03&&''*$*&/5"--"/%3("  08&7&35)*4$-"*.8"4$)"--&/(&%-"5&38)&/*5

8"4 4)08/ 5)"5 5)& 450$, 3&563/4 '0--08 13&%*$5"#-& 1"55&3/4 &41&$*"--: 8)&/ 5)& */'03."5*0/

'-0840/5)&."3,&5"3&-08*//6/&/ 
)*4*4&41&$*"--:3&-&7"/5"45)&-*5&3"563&1307

*/(450$,."3,&5&''*$*&/$:*/644*"*43"5)&3065%"5&%"/%5)&/6.#&30'-*45&%644*"/$0.1"

/*&4)"4*/$3&"4&%$0/4*%&3"#-:4*/$&  03*"&7"/%!"#05,*/  635)&3.03&.0.&/

56.*4*/5&3&45*/(-:"7&3:0-%1)&/0.&/0/0/5)&644*"/450$,."3,&58*5)'*345&.1*3*$"-&7*

%&/$&0'104*5*7&.0.&/56.&''&$54$"/#&53"$&%#"$,50
0/5)&5)&/$"1*5"-"*/5&5&34

#63(450$,&9$)"/(&0&5;."//"/%6"/(  

/05)&3 ."+03 *446& 3&-"5&% 50 644*" #&*/( 1&3$&*7&% "4 "/ 0*-%&1&/%&/5 "/% &91035

%&1&/%&/5&$0/0.:*45)&*.1"$50'0*-13*$&4"/%'03&*(/&9$)"/(&3"5&40/5)&450$,."3,&5

)&3&&9*454"$0/4&/4645)"50*-'"$503)"4/05#&&/1"35*$6-"3-:4*(/*'*$"/5'03"5-&"45"%&$"%&

/08&3&4&54,:  03)0/&/"/%&3&4&54,:  "/%5)"50*-13*$&.07&.&/54"3&/055)&

.045 *.1035"/5 (-0#"- 4)0$,4 '03 644*" "..06%&) &5 "- 


 08&7&3 5)04& 3&46-54

.*()5 46''&3 '30. )&5&30(&/&*5: #*"4 */ 580 %*''&3&/5 8":4 '*345 "4 4)08/ #: "/( "/% 06

  5)&644*"/&$0/0.:*44530/(-:"''&$5&%#:4611-:4*%&0*-."3,&54)0$,4"/%.045-:

6/"''&$5&% #: %&."/%4*%& 4)0$,4 4&$0/% 0*- 13*$&4 4*(/*'*$"/5-: "''&$5 65*-*5*&4 .&5"-4 "/%

$0/46.&345"1-&48)*-&#&*/(/054*(/*'*$"/5'03"/:05)&34&$5034"/%$0/4&26&/5-:5)&#30"%

."3,&5 */%&9 */ (&/&3"- 03*"&7 "/% !"#05,*/   )&3&'03& 0*- .*()5 45*-- #& " 3&-&7"/5

3*4,'"$503*/&91-"*/*/(*/%*7*%6"-450$,3&563/4&("3%*/(5)&'03&*(/&9$)"/(&3"5&3*4,'"$503

5)&3&*4&7*%&/$&5)"5*5*4"113013*"5&-:13*$&%0/5)&644*"/."3,&5"-&&."/%"*)&,04,*


 %1( -6 )63)'-%//< -03257%17 *25 87-/-7-)6 %1( '21680)5 67%3/)6 25-%)9 %1( $%&27.-1

 27%&/<,2:)9)5-7,%6&))168++)67)(7,%77,)5)/%7-216,-3&)7:))1*25)-+1);',%1+)

5%7)%1(672'.5)78516-1'28175-)6-1'/8(-1+866-%-6-19)56)7,)672'.0%5.)7'%86)6

7,));',%1+)5%7)72',%1+)1279-')9)56%,.-/-%1(+8<)1  

((-7-21%//<6-=))**)'7,%6&))1-()17-*-)(217,)866-%1672'.0%5.)7&27,35-25%1(

3267  25-%)9  =25129  !,))9-()1')*257,)35)6)1')2*9%/8))**)'7%6:)//

%6/-48-(-7<35)0-80-608',025)0-;)(25-%)9  25-%)9%1($%&27.-1  =25

129  %1(7,86-7-69)5<81')57%-1-*7,)6)*%'7256'2175-&87)727,)3%77)5162*672'.35-')

029)0)176

2/-7-'%/ 5-6.6 21 7,) 866-%1 672'. 0%5.)7 ,%9) &))1 678(-)( %7 /)%67 6-1')   *-567

)9)17678(<-17,)*-)/(&)-1+-163-5)(&<7,)#" '%6)21)2*7,)*-56735-9%7)2-/);75%'7-21

'203%1-)6-1866-%%1(7,)%55)672*-.,%-/,2(25.296.<%1-1*/8)17-%/&86-1)663)5621%1(

#"  2:1)5 25-%)9 %1( 21-1   -1') 7,)1 -7 ,%6 &))1 )67%&/-6,)( 7,%7 32/-7-'%/

6,2'.6 %5) )9)1 025) -03257%17 *25 7,) 866-%1 0%5.)7 7,%1 *-1%1'-%/ 25 '2002(-7< 6,2'.6

%0028(), )7 %/ 


 9)17 678(-)6 ,%9) 6,2:1 7,%7 32/-7-'%/ 1):6 ,%9) 68&67%17-%/ &87

6,257/%67-1+ -03%'7 21 7,) 866-%1 0%5.)7 )5)6)76.<   267 5)')17/< 6758'785%/ 6,-*7

%1%/<6-6 ,%6 &))1 81()57%.)1 72 3529) 7,%7 7,) ".5%-1-%1 '5-6-6 -9252=,.-1 %1( %67%+1)72

-66)<  %1(7,)-17)51%7-21%/6%1'7-216)&)()9)7%/ ,%9)6-+1-*-'%17/<-1'5)%6)(

866-%1 672'. 0%5.)7 92/%7-/-7< 2:)9)5 ,%5(/< %1< 0)7,2(2/2+-'%/ ()9)/230)176 ,%9) &))1

0%() 72 %''85%7)/< 0)%685) 7,) 866-%1 32/-7-'%/ 5-6. 35)0-80 ,)1') 7,) 678(< %/62 %-06 72

:%5(6*-//-1+7,-6+%3




'(11$"2(-,#(1"311$12'$(+.*(" 2(-,1-%2'$# 2 "-**$"2(-, ,#1 +.*(,&2$"',(/3$1 .

.*($#!72'(1123#7

'$# 2 "-**$"2(-,.0-"$11"-,1(12$#-%2'0$$#(12(,"212 &$1 0$&(-, *.-*(2(" *12 !(*(27

# 2 "-**$"2(-,
311( ,12-")+ 0)$2 ,#"-+. ,7*$4$*%(, ,"( *# 2 "-**$"2(-, ,# 2'$

17,"'0-,(1 2(-,-%2'$1$25-1 +.*$1($2'$ 11(&,+$,2-%"-+. ,($12-2'$0$&(-,15'$0$2'$7

0$! 1$# ,#2'$0$%-0$5' 2.-*(2(" *0(1)2'$7 0$$6.-1$#2-

,2'$%(01212 &$2'$123#732(*(1$12'$# 2 .0-4(#$#!7$2$01!30&-*(2("13,#


 

9 ,(,#$.$,#$,2,-,. 02(1 ,,-,.0-%(2-0& ,(1 2(-,#$#(" 2$#2-.-*(2(" *1"($,"$ ,#1-"(-*

-&70$1$ 0"'0$&(-, *123#($1 ,#.-*(2(" *"-,13*2 ,"7$2$01!30&-*(2("13,#


 (,"$

"2-!$0

2'$3,#' 1!$$," *"3* 2(,& ,(,#$6-%.-*(2(" *12 !(*(27%-0311( ,0$&(-,1-,

+-,2'*7! 1(15'("'#$2$0+(,$12'$1 +.*$"'-("$-%2'$123#7 




 '$(,#$6

"-4$01 ** 0$&(-,1-%311( ,$#$0 2(-,2' 2 0$(,2$0, 2(-, **70$"-&,(1$# ,#,-2(,4-*4$#

(, ,71(&,(%(" ,22$00(2-0( *#(1.32$1-0"-,20-4$01($12'$0$%-0$2'$0$(1,-# 2 .0$1$,2$#%-02'$

0(+$ -0$4 12-.-* "'0$&(-,(12'$, 11(&,$# 4 *3$%0-+ 2-  !$(,&2'$*$ 12.-*(2

(" **7 12 !*$ ,#  !$(,& 2'$ +-12 .-*(2(" **7 12 !*$ $%*$"2(,& ,-2 !*$ 1-"( * $"-,-+(" ,#

.-*(2(" * #(4$01(27 -% 311(  27.(" **7 '(&'*(&'2$# (, 2'$ *(2$0 230$ 3! 0$4("' ,#  %0-,-4

 2'$0$(113!12 ,2( *"0-111$"2(-, * ,#(,2$02$+.-0 *4 0( 2(-,(,0$&(-, *.-*(2(" *12 !(*

(271$$0 .' !$*-5

[insert Graph 1 here]

-0$-4$0 1 1'-5, (, 2'$ &0 .' 2'$0$ $6(121  ,-2 !*$ #$"0$ 1(,& 20$,# 0$.0$1$,2(,&

-4$0 **#$12 !(*(1 2(-, ,#2'$(,"0$ 1$-%.-*(2(" *0(1)1 %2$02'$)0 (,( ,"0(1(1(4-0-8')(,

,# 12 &,$2-(11$7
 $!$#$4$2 *
 


$!*0$!%* !4%/(1(0! +0$0$!+2!.((,1(%(5,!.!%2! * !4,!.0(5//!//! 

/0%(%05* .!(!2*0,+(%0%((5%),0"1(!2!*0/.!+1*0! "+.$!%* !4%/)!0$+ +(+#%

((5+*/!.20%2!/%00.!0//001/-1+,.!/!.2%*#!#*!(!0%+*3+*5*%*1)!*0,+(%

0%%*!2!*0//,+/%0%2!*  !/0%(%/%*#!2!*0/!#/1!//"1(0%+*/,!."+.)! 50$!+,,+

/%0%+*/*!#0%2!3$%$%/+*/%/0!*03%0$1*!.0%*05/! !4,(*0%+*/+",+(%0%(.%/',.!2

(!*0%*0$!(%0!.01.!/0+.* !.+*!/%   
!((5/0+.* !.+*!/%  $!

%* !4%//+(10!.0$!.0$*.!(0%2!0$!.!"+.!%0((+3/"+.2(% * )!*%*#"1( 5*)%* 

.+///!0%+*( +),.%/+*/ *  *(5/%/ /%)1(0*!+1/(5 $!/! ,.+,!.0%!/ +" 0$! %* !4 ((+3

+*!0+"+.).!,.!/!*00%2!(*! ,*!( 1.0$!.)+.!/0$!%* !4"+.!$)+*0$%/,1

(%/$! *+0!.(%!.0$*0$! 0$+"0$!"+((+3%*#)+*0$!#!,0!)!. %* !43/2%((!

+*(500$! 0$+"0+!. %0+1( *+0$2!*5!$2%+1.(%),0+*/0+'.!01.*/* 

0$!.!"+.!%/% !( "+.,.+45%*#,+(%0%(.%/'0 0$! /)! 0%)! 0$! 1, 0!/+" 0$! 0/! .!

".!-1!*0 !*+1#$ (35/ ,1(%/$!  3%0$%* 0$! "%./0 03+ 3!!'/ +" 0$! "+((+3%*# )+*0$ )+/0

+))+*(5%*0$!/!+* 3!!'*+00+/1""!.".+)$%* /%#$0%/!#(!((%*#*!10.(!2!*0

$,,!*!  %* !,0!)!. / !/0%(%/%*# $2%*# (.! 5 '*+3* 3$0 $,,!*!  %* +2!)!.

+.!+2!. / 0$! %* !4 %/ (1(0!  5 /+%+(+#%/0/ *  ,+(%0%( /%!*0%/0/ .0$!. 0$* "%**!

 !)%/ *  %*2!/0+./ %0 %/ %))1*! 0+ /1/0%010%+* *  +*"%.)0%+* %/!/ !# /1&!0%2!

!.!/!/+"0$!.!#%+*(,+(%0%(/0%(%05%* !4"+((+3%*#,++./0+',!."+.)*!+.+),*5

.!(0!  % %+/5*.0% .%/' !2!*0/ 1$ $%#$".!-1!*5 *  $%#$-1(%05 .!#%+*( %*/0%010%+*(

0%/2!.5..!* !40.!)!(52(1(!"+."%**!.!/!.$!/,%0!!%*#/+)!0%)!/1/! %*

1//%* .!#%+*( .!/!.$ %* ,+(%0%( /%!*! *  /+%+(+#5 (!%0 +*(5 !/.%,0%2!(5 /!! "+.

!4),(!+#1(%$  *+(%0!.01.!$/!!*"+1* 0$010%(%/!/0$%/ 0/!0/,+(%0%(.%/'

"0+.%*"+.)(-1*0%00%2!*(5/%/+.!2!*/*! +0(!2% !*!*!%0$!.%*!+*+)%/*+.%*


+.3&3(*+.*1)746*4:*65*6-&57)9*841&3,9&,*'&66.*678-**8*67'96,41.8.(793)>7;*'

7.8*.7&:&.1&'1*741*1=.3977.&38-.7)&8&'&7*.793-*&6)4+&243,3,1.7-75*&0.3,&(&)*2

.(7&3)56&(8.8.43*67!-*6*+46*8-.7789)=+.117&(437.)*6&'1*,&5.38-*1.8*6&896*'='*.3,8-*

+.67884*<5146*&3)&3&1=7*3*;8=5*74+)&8&8-&8(491)'*97*)'=*(4342.(7&3)+.3&3(*6*

7*&6(-*67

38-*7*(43)78&,*8-*789)=6*7468*)848-*1442'*6,)&8&'&7*84)4;314&)2438-1=

848&16*89634+977.&3!6&).3, =78*27! 3)*<! !3)*<977.&75*(.+.(6.70+6**

6&8*6*56*7*38*)'=
=*&6,4:*632*38'43)=.*1)"
$3)*<&)/978*)+46
2438-5*

6.4) 2438-1= " " *<(-&3,* 6&8* " " 963(= &3) 6*38 (69)* 4.1 56.(* 


42)8=7)&8&43977.&75*(.+.("6&174.1'1*3).7).7(438.39*)&3)93&:&.1&'1*+4624784+

8-*7&251*5*6.4)8-*789)=97*76*38.378*&)&7&7*(43)'*7874198.43!-*6*+46*8-.7789)=

(&3&)-*6*848-*+6&2*;460*78&'1.7-*)'=8-*5.43**6.3,1.8*6&896*43977.&3784(07>5*6+46

2&3(* 46.&*: &3) %&'480.3  &1**2 &3) #&.-*0470.  *25-&7.7.3, +46*.,3 *<

(-&3,* 6&8* &3) 4.1 6*89637 &7 6*1*:&38 6.70 +&(8467 +46 8-* 977.&3 784(0 2&60*8 *75.8* 2478

6*(*38 6*7*&6(- &6,9.3, 3*.8-*6 4.1 &2249)*- *8 &1


 &3, &3) $49
 46-43*3

&3) *6*7*870=
 346 8-* *<(-&3,* 6&8* &2249)*3 *8 &1
 -0.1. &3) ,9=*3


 &6* (437.78*38 &3) 7.,3.+.(&38 )6.:*67 4+ 8-* 977.&3 784(0 2&60*8 8-*7* +&(8467 &6* 78.11

97*+91&7(438641:&6.&'1*77.3(*541.8.(&178&'.1.8=2&='*)*5*3)*3843-.,-4.156.(*74678&'1*

+46*.,3*<(-&3,*6&8*&81*&78+46742*6*,.437+46*<&251*4.1564)9(*671.0*!=92*34'1&78

&3)$&2&14*3*870= &9843424974069, 46 86&)*)*5*3)*38 6*,.4371.0* 241*370 4'1&78 &3)

6.24670= 06&. 7 79(- 43* 2&= &6,9* 6*,6*77.3, 784(0 6*89637 43 541.8.(&1 6.70 &3) 2&60*8

6.70&143*(491)2.775*(.+=8-*24)*1&7541.8.(&16.70;491).3+&(8.87*1+'*&564<=+464.146


),#!(2"(!", ),)(.,)&&#(! ),2"(!,.(,(.,./,('3-,0-(

#.#)(&,)/-.(--"% ),."')&

2.')(."&3-.)%.).&,./,(.1-).#(0#&))',!)&#'#(.-/,0#0),

-"#*#-(.)(-/,.",*,-(..#0(--) ."-'*&&&/--#-)'*(#-&#-.#(

."!#((#(!) ."-'*&*,#)  



1,#(#.#&&3)(-#, ),-'*&#(&/-#)(

 .,1,-)(&3.")--.)%-.".".&-.)(.*)#(. ),')(."&3.).&,./,(.",)/!")/.

."-'*&*,#)1,#(&/"/-)/.)   #(#.#&&3..)'*(#-)(&3
 )(-.#

./. ." -'*& )(."&3 ,./,( . "- ( ")-( )." .) ,'#( )(-#-.(. 1#." ." ,

+/(3 )  *)&#.#& -.#&#.3 . ( .) -/-- /&&3 *./, ." .#'*,-#-.(. #'*.-")%

*,'#-*)&#.#&0(.-,-")1(.)"0-/-.(.#&/.-"),.&-.#(!#'*.)(."/--#(

-.)%',%.,-.-%3
 ",)/!")/.."-./3-#'*&")&#(!*,#),./,(- ),&&."

0,#&-,&/&.#(-.) &)!,./,(-.)*./,&#(,,#-%,./,(,&.#)(-"#*-#(*(&

. (&3-#- 1#." '), *,#-#)( #.#)(&&3 2-- ,./,(- , /- #( - )  -.)% (

',%.,./,(--."#-&&)1-.)+/.&3*./,.",#-%*,'#) -.)%-1"#&&-)(./,&&3

$/-.#(! ),#( &.#)(().&#--/ ),."/--#()()'3#(-)'3,--1&&-!&)&

()/(.,3&0&*)&#.#&,#-%-."/-*, ),'#(!."(&3-#-)((+/&!,)/(-#-

(."."#,-.!.)**,)*,#.&3)(-.,/.." #(&-'*& ),."(&3-#-."-./3

1-,+/#,.)#(.# 3."&).#)() &&


 )'*(#-)(-#,(--/"."(./,) 

."#,*)&#.#&,#-%2*)-/,.1---/'."..")'*(#-(/,."*)&#.#&,#-%---)#

. 1#." ." ,!#)( ."#, "+/,.,- , #(),*),. ,.", ."( 1", ."#, )*,.#)(- ,

-",(0,#.3) *&/-#&."),.#&,-)(-*,)0# ),-/"(--/'*.#)(

#,-.-*)&#.#&,#-%#-'#(&3--)#.1#.".2.#)(,!/&.),3)'*&#(#'5(4

/#-#)((#.)-),#)
 */&#*,)/,'(.&).&
 (*,)*,.32*,)


+-$/$*)$)) 0.#  $/$.(*./- ' 1)//**0)/!*-/# .+ $!$.*!- "$*)'' "$.'/$*)

/# *(+)4(0./$ 2$/#)*!/# !*-(')$)!*-('*((0)$/$*)#)) '. /2 )

/# 0.$) ..*2) -.)/# .// *!!$$'..0..$2#$'  %0-  $)"!  -/$*)$.)*/ 

 )/-'$. $)/ -(.*!(*./$)!'0 )/$'+*'$4 $.$*). '()



/# !*-( --"0( )/$.

)*/+-/$0'-'4- ' 1)/*2 1 -.$)!*-('- '/$*).#$+. /2 )0.$) ..+ *+' )- "$*)

'+*'$/$' '$/ .- -0$'*/#!*-0)$)/ --0+/ !0)/$*)$)"*!0.$) .. .# )&*1


 

) !*- /#  *((0)$/$*) *! +*'$/$' ) ' "$.'/$1  #)"   '()

 /#  '// - -"0

( )/ $. -0$''4 $(+*-/)/ !*- #**.$)" /#  - "$*) *! !$-(.5 +*'$/$' -$.& 3+*.0-  .  *)

# ,0-/ -.$)*-+*-/$*)-/# -/#)*)/# . *!*+ -/$*).

 *).(*./0..$)*(+)$ .*+ -/ -*..1-$*0.- "$*).$/) $!!$0'//*

.. ../# -*../ --$/*-$'*+ -/$*).,0)/$//$1 '4/#0.0))  ..-$'4*(+'$/$)"/# ,0)/$

//$1 )'4.$.- ,0$- !*-!0-/# -(* '.+ $!$/$*)

#$-.# ,0-/ -.'*/$*)./ )/**$)$ 2$/#(%*-. .*!*+ -/$*)!*-++-

)/ *)*($- .*). "/-).+*-//$*)*./.)/# 1'0 *!- "$*)' 3+ -/$. /# - (4$)

!/)*/ 3$./)4.$")$!$)/$!! - ) $) ./$(/$)"/# +*'$/$'-$.& 3+*.0-  $/# -24

$)''4# ,0-/ -$)*-+*-/$*)/$.(0# .$ -/**/$))1 -$!40.$)"2$ 

1-$ /4*!.*0- ./#0.$)- .$)"/# - '$$'$/4*!/# ./04

 )  # ,0-/ - '*/$*) 2. #*. ) .  .+ $!$/$*) !*- /#  *(+)$ .5 +*'$/$'

-$.&# /2.*/$) !-*(*(+)4+-*!$' .$)'**( -") 0/ -.)1 -$!$ 0.$)"

*-+*-/ ))0'- +*-/.!*-''


*(+)$ .*.(+' *(+)$ .2 - !*0)/*#1 (*1 

/# $-# ,0-/ -.2$/#$)/# .(+' + -$* 




 /# - !*- /# ./04..0( ./#/

/# - ' 1)/- "$*)!*-/# $-+*'$/$'-$.& 3+*.0- - ($) /# .( (*)"


.(+' *(

+)$ .   2 -  - "$./ -  $) *.*2 )


 $) $)/  / -.0-" #  *1 -'' -*..- "$*)'


"'01/' 21',+,$-2 )'!!,*-+'#0'+200''0-/#0#+1#"'+'%2/# #),41&#0'7#,$1&#*/(#/

/#-/#0#+1'+%1&#+2* #/,$!,*-+'#0&#".2/1#/#"'+/#%',++"1&#!,),2/'))201/1'+%1&#

'+'1')-,)'1'!)01 ')'16,$1&#/#%',+'+!1, #/  )'%&1#/ #'+%*,/#-,)'1'!))601 )#+"

"/(#/ #'+%)#0001 )#

[insert Figure 1 here]

3#/)) '+    ,21 ,$


 /#%',+0 &" 1 )#01 ,+# -2 )'!)6 )'01#" !,*-+6 4'1&

3') )#1,1)/#12/+"11&20'+"'!1'+%1&#0*-)#'0/#-/#0#+11'3#4&')#1&#/#, 3',20)6#5'01

0'%+'$'!+1 "'0-/,-,/1',+0 '+ 200'+ /#%',+) "#3#),-*#+1 02--,/1'+% 1&# -/,*'+#+1 !)'*

&'%&)'%&1#"'+1&#)'1#/12/#2 /#3'!&+"$/,+,3 2/1&#/*,/#+'+1#/#01'+%, 0#/

31',+ '0 1&1 +'+# 0*-)# !,*-+'#0 4#/# )#%))6 /#%'01#/#"  /," '+!)2"'+% ,1& 0*)) +"

*#"'2*!-,$$0&,/#!,*-+'#0/#%'01#/#"'+6-/20+"#/*2"+")/%#!,/-,/1',+0-/#

$#//'+%,3#/0#0'+!,/-,/1',+)'(#3/7+" #1')/,2-"#0-'1#&3'+%,$$'!')20

0'+&#".2/1#/004#))1!+&3#0,*#*#1&,",),%'!)'*-)'!1',+0$,/1&#012"60$,/#'%+

/#%'01#/#"!,*-+'#0*6 #)#00$$#!1#" 6200'+-,)'1'!)/'0(#3#+10,/#3#+ #-,)'1'!))6

*,1'31#"1,'+!,/-,/1# /,"'+1&#$'/01-)!#'*8+#7#1)  0,1&'0'002#'0"'0!200#"

$2/1&#/'+1&##1&,",),%60#!1',+

3'+%""/#00#"1&#"1!,))#!1',+'002#0+"0,*#'*-)'!1',+0,$011'01'!)-/,-#/1'#0

,$1&#"1+#511&'0012"6*,3#0,+1,#5-),/'+% /,"#/"1+)60'0+"0-#!'$'!1',+'002#0

'+1&##1&,",),%60#!1',+

 


 


" (' '(#" ( -$#('' # ( '()- &  #&( " ( &&''#" %)(#"'

)'(#('((!"'((!$& *"&$&'"((#" -('!$ "$&#

''"(&#)'("'''&')''

'#"(,'(" (&()&#"$# ( &'"()''"'(#!&(#)&'

("(&'&-$#(''"#&!) (

 & ,'('  $#'(* &#"  $# (  &' $&!)! "(* $# (  '( (-

$&!)!#"()''"'(#!&(

 & ,'('  $#'(* "(* '(# &()&" &(#" !$('# $&!)! (#

$#'(*"(*"'"&#" $# ( '( (-#"()''"'(#!&(

$# ( &'"!$('#$&!$&''(+"#"(&# #&!&(,

"&("# &''+ '"*) '(#* )(#"

"'"$# ( '( (-(('(#&()&",$#')&(#(&#'(#

)&&"-"# !&('

#('(('-$#(''('()-)( '''(#%)(#"'$&'"( #+

     
    

     
        

     
             


     
    
      
      
       

     
  
     

     
  
        

     
  
             

     
  
             

     
  
    
       
      
      

     
  
    
       
      
      


             
        

(%1%

  )23(%%7#%221%341-.&3(%i3(23.#*)-,.-3(t#!+#4+!3%$!21%2/%#3)5%1!63.3!+1%341-,)

-423(%1)2*&1%%1!3%

 )23(%)-$%7.&/.+)3)#!+23!")+)38.&3(%1%').-6(%1%3(%i3(#.,/!-8)2 )-#.1/.1!3%$)-

,.-3(t

 )23(%#(!-'%)-/.+)3)#!+23!")+)38.&3(%1%').-6(%1%3(%i3(#.,/!-8)2)-#.1/.1!3%$)-

,.-3(t#!+#4+!3%$!2   

  )23(%%7#%221%341-.&3(%,!1*%3)-,.-3(t#!+#4+!3%$!23(%,!1*%33.3!+1%341-,)-42

3(%1)2*&1%%1!3%


 )23(%1%341-.&3(%422)!-1.4"+%)-3(%#411%-#8/!)1)-,.-3( t;

 )23(%1%341-.&1%-3.)+)-,.-3(t

)23(%#.,,.-2!,/+%)-3%1#%/3.&23.#*1%341-22),)+!1#.-#%/34!++83.%-2%-<2!+/(!

 )23(%#1.222%#3).-!+$)&&%1%-3)!+)-3%1#%/3.&23.#*1%341-21%&+%#3)-'3(%!")+)38.&23.#*23.

'%-%1!3%$)&&%1%-35!+4%!$$%$!-$%23),!3%$42)-'!-$.,&&%#32.1)7%$&&%#32,.$%+

)23(%/.+)3)#!+1)2*/1%,)4,3)2%7/%#3%$3."%-%'!3)5%1%&+%#3)-'3(%4-#%13!)-383(%.18

.&/.+)3)#!+1)2*!23.1!-$%1.-%2)
 %++8%3!+
 !-$3(%-!341%.&3(%/.+)3)#!+1)2*

$!3!$$)3).-!++8)3)2%7/%#3%$3."%-%'!3)5%!-$2)'-)&)#!-3)-!++3(%%04!3).-2  !##.1$

)-'3.

)23(%23.#*1%341-1%!#3).-3.2()&32)-/.+)3)#!+1)2*3(%),/!#32(.#*/1%,)4,3)2%7/%#3%$

3. "% /.2)3)5% !##.1$)-' 3.  3(% +)3%1!341% .- /.+)3)#!+ %5%-3 234$)%2 (!- !-$ %)  

), !-$ %)


  %1%2%32*8
  3(% /1.$4#3)5% /.+)3)#!+ #(!-'% !1'4,%-3 !*%1 !-$

+..,
 !-$3(%1)2*"!2%$3(%.18.&3(%:/1%2)$%-3)!+/499+%;!-3!+!1!!-$!+*!-.5



#.#)(&&3#.#-2*..)*)-#.#0(-#!(# #(.#(&&."+/.#)(- ),

#(!.)

#-.")'')(-&)*) ',%.,#-% .),

#-.")'')(-&)*)  ),#!(2"(!,#-% .),

#-.")'')(-&)*) )#&*,#,#-% .),

      , ." ,)---.#)(&# ,(.#&-&)*-)  ',%. ,#-% 2"(! ,. ()#& .),-

)/(.#(! ),0,#)/-(./,&,#-%#(--) # ,(. #,'-&/&./-#(!."/''30,#&

**,)" #,-.0&)*3/$,.#

    ,." .-) ,!#)(&*)&#.#&-.#&#.3)(',%.,#-%2"(!,.()#&2*)-/,

) )'*(#-7-.)%,./,(-

    ,." .-) ,!#)(&*)&#.#&,#-%-"# .-)(',%.,#-%2"(!,.()#&2*)

-/,) )'*(#-7-.)%,./,(-"3,2*..)*)-#.#0"#!"&#!".#(!(."5-3(

",)(#-.#)(6 ."),3 "/ . &   ),")(( ( ,-.-%3   #0),)4"%#( (

-.!(.)#--3   -*#&&3 #( ." - )  ',%. .), - *)&#.#&&3 -.& ',%.-

.( .)  .#!".&3 ),,&. 1"#& *)&#.#&&3 /(-.& ',%.- , )'#(. 3 ##)-3(,.#

,#-% )10, , &.#(! ." /(,.#(.3 ,!/'(. 0&)* 3 -.), ( ,)(-#   

+/.#)(#--.#'. ),&&*)--#&)'#(.#)(-) ,&.#0(-)&/.# ,(.#&-&)*-

##(&/#(!
    (
     - .),-

 #-.",,),.,'

"-./3*, ),'-."+/.#)(-.#'.#)(-#(#-.#(.-.*-#+/.#)( .,+/.#)(

#(),,.)#(.# 31#."'2#'&&,#.3")1*)&#.#&,#-%2*)-/,-.#'.),-"(!1#."."

#(&/-#)() #.#)(& .),-#(.)."')&(.", ),.)-*).(3*)--#&#()(-#-.(#-

), -*# #.#)( #--/- ), 2'*& - .", #- 0#( .". ),#!( 2"(! .), )( ."


672&.5(785160,*+7,1)$&76+2:5(9(56(&$86$7,21,1&$6(2)&28175,(6+.,/,$1'*8

<(1  (48$7,216 $1' $5((67,0$7('%()25(


$1'5(63(&7,9(/<

// 02'(/6$5(63(&,),('86,1*67$1'$5'3$1(/ 81/(6627+(5:,6(67$7('//(67,0$

7,216$1'(&2120(75,&7(676$5(3(5)250(',1",(:6 67$7,67,&$/62)7:$5(

#+(1%27+$1'20))(&76$1',;('))(&7602'(/6$5($33/,&$%/(727+((67,0$7,212)

7+(3$1(/02'(/(48$7,216$1'$860$17(67$860$1,6(03/2<('72'(7(50,1(

:+(7+(5$1'20))(&76(67,0$7,216$5(&216,67(17)7+(<$5(3529(172%(,1&216,67(17,;('

))(&7602'(/,686(',167($'//',))(5(17,$/6/23(6,1(48$7,216 $1'$5((67,0$7('86,1*

7+('800<9$5,$%/($3352$&+'(9(/23('%<8-$5$7,

'',7,21$//<7+(3523(57,(62)6$03/(&203$1,(6='$7$68**(677+(1((')257+5((',67,1&7

52%8671(66&+(&.6

,567$67+(5($5(&203$1,(6:,7+9(5<60$//180%(52)2%6(59$7,216,17+(6$03/(3(5,2'

0267/<9(5<,//,48,'25($5/<'(/,67('672&.63$1(/(67,0$7,216,192/9,1*&52666(&7,21$/',))(5

(17,$/,17(5&(376$1'6/23(6(48$7,216$5(3(5)250(':,7+$'',7,21$//<),/7(5(''$7$&20

3$1,(6:,7+/(667+$1 0217+62)'$7$$9$,/$%/('85,1*7+(6$03/(3(5,2'$5((;&/8'(')5207+(

6$03/(7235(6(59()8//5$1.$1'72'(&5($6(7+(/,.(/,+22'2)6385,2865(68/76!+(5()25((67,0$

7,216$1'$5(%$6('21$6/,*+7/<60$//(56$03/( &203$1,(6&203$5('72 ,1$//

27+(5&$6(6

(&21''8(720,;('5(68/76,17+((;,67,1*/,7(5$785(217+(5(7851$872&255(/$7,21217+(

866,$1672&.0$5.(7:,7+),1',1*6%27+(9,'(1&,1*,1181(1 
$1',03/,&,7/<1(*$7,1*

%526,029$(7$/  25,$(9(7$/  7+(35(6(1&(2)$872&255(/$7,217+,6678'<(67,

0$7(6(48$7,216 $1':,7+$1':,7+2877+(/$**('(;&(66672&.5(78519$5,$%/(,1&/8'(',172


/# (* '/* / -($) */#/# .$")$!$) *!/# (*( )/0(!/*-)/# *).$./ )4*!/# 

+*'$/$'-$.&+- ($ ./$(/ .

#$-.,0'$//$1 /)'4.$.- 1 ' )$) 0..$)'$./ *(+)$ ./#/- - "$.

/ - *1 -. . ,0/$*).


)  -  ./$(/ */#2$/#)2$/#*0//#*. *(+)$ .$)

'0  $)/* /#  .(+'  *)/-./$)"'4 !*- ,0/$*)  /#  $!! - ) . $) (-& / !*- $") 3

#)"  *$' ) +*'$/$' -$.& 3+*.0- . !*- /#  *!!.#*-  ) !*- $").  *(+)$ . -  ./$

(/ 0.$)"/# 0((41-$' ++-*#*0/'$) *1 /*/ ./2# /# -/# $-+*'$/$'-$.&. 3

+*.0- - $!! - )/!-*(/# - ./*!/# .(+' #$.. -1 ./2*!*'+0-+*. *./$(+*-/)/

'4 $/ ''*2. /*  / -($)  2# /# - /#  $)$/$' ./$(/$*). -  1'$ ) !-  !-*( # / -*" ) $/4

$. *)$/)+-*1$ .*( $).$"#/.*).$")$!$) *!0) -'4$)"+*'$/$'(*/$1/$*)!*-

$)/ -)/$*)'$./$*)$)0..$.*(+- /*+$)$(6) 5 /'  

*  -$1   *)$.  ,0)/$//$1  ./$(/  *! +*'$/$' -$.& +- ($ *) /#  0..$) ./*&

(-& /!-*(.0#.0./)/$'. /*!(* './# ./04- .*-/./*&$& $)!*-(/$*)-$/ -$*)

&$& 
)/# (* '1 -"$)"/ #)$,0 . *)/# *)$/$*)''$& '$#**+-*+ -/4

*!&$& 2 $"#/." )(& -.)-- ''  

*/ /#//# )0( -*!*. -1/$*).$..'$"#/'4'*2 -$). *! ,0/$*)./#/$)'0 

 ./# .*'0/ (*)/#'4#)" $)+*'$/$'./$'$/4) '0'/ *)'4./-/$)"!-*(

*1 ( -  # .( ++'$ .!*-/#  ./$(/$*).$)'0$)"'""  3 ..- /0-).$) .*( 

./*&.- /- $)!- ,0 )/'4*-2 )/+0'$%0.///#  "$))$)"*!/# .(+' + -$**2 1

- $/ $. ).0-  /#/ /#  )0( -*! *. -1/$*). $. '24. .0!!$$ )/'4'-"  !*- /#  )0( - *!

!/*-.$)'0 $)/*/# (* '

# - .0'/.*!/#  ./$(/$*).- +- . )/ !0-/# -$)/# (+$-$' .0'/.. /$*)


 
  

(()$#%'(#)()"%'!'(*!)($)()*.#)'#!.((#$##)$#)$

)!)')*'

[insert Figure 2 here]

&* !$$ ))'$(('$#!()$ ')*'#((*' $+(*()())"$'

*#()! '$#( %'$+ ' -(( ')*'#( )$ #+()$'( $,+' )$ *#'()# ,)'

)$('#('())()!!.(##)#,)()'($*')()")$#$&*)$#(

('&*'

[insert Table 1 here]

!$+(*()()))%$!)!'( %'"*"((##))'$*$*)!!()

")$#(#!#,))/()!).%'"*"0(#)+#'( %'"*"(%$(

)+$'$+')()")%'"*"$(#$)'((*()#)!!.,#$#)'$!!$'"'

)'( -#')$!$'+##(#'( -%$(*'('(#'$"%$!)!()!).$'

#()!).()")$#( 
' )'( !$##-%!#$#!.
 $)%'"*",!

"' )'( -#')#$!$#)!.'()%$!)!()!).)$'(!$%.  

)*(%'$+#'!.+##(*%%$')$+')!((#$#$)%$!)!()!).

'#)!(!$%('(##)(*()#))$"%#(&*')'#!((()!'$#($#

+'$#$)'(%$#)$'( )$'('#)!.

()")$#( %'$+)))%$!)!()!).#-'#)!(+!*!)$#

)$)"$!())$'((##),#$#)'$!!$')"' )'( )(%$()+#(

##)#(-$*)$(+#()")$#(+'.))))$#)$#!.becomes (#

#),#-(("' )')*'#()$)"$!+$*(#()%$((!!"($"$!

"((%)$#*)$%$!)!'( %'$-.#$'$)''!+#))$'(#)*(+#()


"4&/0"* " +# &), 0/%+ ' ,.")&1) +* 0%" 1//&* /0+ ' ).'"0 /1,,+.0&*$  +."+2". &0

,+//&(5/&$*(/ 0%00%" %*$"&*,+(&0& (/0&(&05)5",.0& 1(.(5 ."("2*0&*"4,(&*&*$

).'"0.&/'"4,+/1."//1$$"/0"!5

/0&)0&+*  &*0.+!1 &*$ !&##"."*0&( /(+,"/ /"! +* )+*0%(5 ,+(&0& ( /0&(&05 &*!"4

%*$"/%+3/0%"/&$*&#& *0,+/&0&2"&), 0,+(&0& ("*2&.+*)"*0!5*)& /%/+*0%").'"0

*!#+."&$*"4 %*$""4,+/1."%"*,+(&0& (/0&(&05&*0%"."$&+*&),.+2"//0+ '."01.*/+#

+),*&"/%"!-1.0"."!0%"."" +)")+." +.."(0"!3&0%0%".+! +1*0.5/0+ ').'"0&*

!"4*!0%" 1.."* 5).'"0"2&!"* &*$&*0%"/"*/"+#&!&+/5* .0& /5/0")0& .&/'!& %+0

+)5"."/"0/'5
 %1"0(
 1.,.&/&*$(50%"."&/*+/&)&(."##" 0+# +*

0%"+&("4,+/1."+.)+."!"0&("!!&/ 1//&+*+#,+(&0& (/0&(&05 %*$"*!/+(10",+(&0&

(/0&(&05 %*$"&), 0+*/0+ '."01.*/5* %.+*&/0&+*/""(" 

"$.!&*$0%"&4"!*!*!+)##" 0/)+!"(/,,(&"!0+"/0&)0&+*1/)*0"/0

1/)*  $"*".0"!  %&/-1."! 2(1" +#   /&$*&#& *0 0  0%"."#+." *!+)

##" 0/ "/0&)0+./ 3"." *!+*"! / &* +*/&/0"*0 #+. 0%" &4"! ##" 0/ "/0&)0+./ &)&(.(5

&4"!##" 0/)+!"(3/(/+ %+/"*&*"/0&)0&+* 0%"."1/)*%&/-1."!2(1"+#

/&$*&#& *00 3/+0&*"!

&4"!##" 0/)+!"(/1,".&+.&05/1$$"/0/0%00%" +),*&"/&*0%"/),("."1*&-1"*!

0%"2.&0&+*/&*0%"&.!&##"."*0&(&*0". ",0/(,%/)5&),(52(1"!!&0&+*+.&*!&2&!1(.&/'

"4,+/1."/ 1* +1*0"! #+. &* 0%" )+!"( *0"."/0&*$(5 3%"* !&##"."*0&( &*0". ",0/ ." &*0.+

!1 "!0%",+(&0& (.&/'"4,+/1."()+/00.&,("/"-1((&*$  )+*0%(5 #+."/0&)

0&+* ,".."$&+*(,+(&0& (/0&(&05&*!"4,+&*0 +),."!0+"/0&)0&+*/2.5&*$#.+) 

0+ &*0%",++("!."$."//&+*)+!"(/1 %!&##"."* ")'"/&01* (".3%00%"60.1"7

2(1" +# 0%" .&/' ,.")&1) &/ *! )5 /1$$"/0 2.5&*$ ,+(&0& ( .&/' "4,+/1."  .+// !&##"."*0


$/-0".*&3&,/&4",
 /4*$&"#,94)&*-0"$43)/$+02&-*5-&34*-"4*/.%/&3./4$)".(&

35#34".4*",,9
 ".%
 -/.4),90&20/*.4/'0/,*4*$",34"#*,*49*.%&8$)".(&'/2&34*-"

4*/.3".% $/-0"2&%4/  
 *.02&6*/53&34*-"4*/.3

*.",,9 &34*-"4*/.  $/.42/,3 '/2 6",5& "%%*4*/. "3 7&,, "3 '/2 *.%*6*%5", $/-0".*&3;

-"2+&4'/2&*(.&8$)".(&".%/*,2*3+3,/0&343)/734)"44)&0/,*4*$",2*3+".%4)&*-0"$43)/$+

02&-*""2&./44)&2&35,4/')&4&2/(&.&*49#*"3#542"4)&2"0&23*34&.4&''&$4/.4)&533*".34/$+

-"2+&402/6*%*.(/6&27)&,-*.(&6*%&.$&*.3500/24/'".%524)&2-/2&2&,"4*6&,9

,/7 6",5&3 /' 315"2&% *. ",, &34*-"4*/.3   3)/7 4)"4 4)& 533*". 34/$+ -"2+&4 *3 *.%&&%

6&29 *%*/39.$2"4*$ 2*3+%2*6&. /2)/.&. ".% &2&3&43+9


  *6/2/:)+*. ".% "34"(.&4/

*33&9
 &#&%&6&4",
 &6&.7)&.$/.42/,,&%'/20/,*4*$",'"$4/23/7&6&24)&'"$4

4)"4 &34*-"4/23 /' 0/,*4*$", 2*3+ ".% *-0"$43)/$+ 02&-*" "2& )*(),9 3*(.*'*$".4 &6&. /. 35$) "

6/,"4*,&-"2+&402/6&4)&*202/-*.&.$&".%*-0/24".$&'/2*.6&34/23

[insert Table 2 here]

"#,&
"#/6&2&0/2434)&2&35,43/'"54/$/22&,"4*/.2/#534.&33$)&$+&30*4&",,&34*-"

4*/.3   02/%5$*.( 52#*.!"43/. 34"4*34*$3 /' 


 ".% 4)53 *.%*$"4*.( 4)& "#3&.$& /'

"54/$/22&,"4*/.4)*302/$&%52&*334*,,&-0,/9&% 43)/734)"4*..&*4)&2/'4)&&34*-"4*/.34)&

*.$,53*/./',"((&%&8$&332&452.*3"3*(.*'*$".4'"$4/2/23+&734)&2&35,43.'"$44)&&34*-"4&%

0/,*4*$",2*3+".%*-0"$43)/$+02&-*"",7"93increase "'4&2,"((&%&8$&332&452.*3"%%&%*.4/

4)&-/%&,)&.$&342/.(,93500/24*.(

[insert Table 3 here]

)& 2&35,43 '/2 4)&/''3)/2& 2/#534.&33 $)&$+"2&02&3&.4&% *. "#,&  "#/6&'4&2 4)&

/''3)/2&".%'/2&*(.#"3&%$/-0".*&37&2&&8$,5%&%'2/-4)&3"-0,&/242&"4&%3&0"2"4&,96*"

%5--96"2*"#,&%*''&2&.4*",3,/0&"002/"$)4)&2&35,43%*%./4$)".(&.4&2&34*.(,9&34*-"4*/.


 2(.62 3(!3 /.+)3)#!+ 1)2* !-$ ),/!#32(.#* /1%,)! &.1 .&&2(.1% !-$ .5%12%!2)-#.1/.1!3%$

#.,/!-)%2!1%%04!+3.3(.2%.&$.,%23)#!++81%')23%1%$&)1,22)-#%3(%)1$)&&%1%-3)!+2+./%2&.1

3(.2%&!#3.12!1%()'(+8)-2)'-)&)#!-33(425).+!3)-'3(%(8/.3(%2)2.&/.+)3)#!+$1)5%12.&)-3%1-!

3).-!+)2!3).-),:-%9%3!+
 )-#!2%.&422)!()2)2-.3241/1)2)-'')5%-3(%)-&+4%-#%.&

1%').-!+ %+)3%2 .- 422)!- #.,/!-)%2 )2 ,.23+8 )-&.1,!+ %+,!-



 (%"!-*.5!
 

.6%5%13(%%7/.241%2.&&.1%)'-"!2%$#.,/!-)%23.#411%-#8!-$.)+1)2*2!1%-.3!"+8$)&&%1

%-33(%1%&.1%)324''%2323(%,.3)5%2&.1.5%12%!2)-#.1/.1!3).-,!8"%)-&!#3/41%+8%#.-.,)#

%'!1$+%223(%1%24+32.&3(%%23),!3).-2!'!)-/1.5%3(%1."423-%22.&/.+)3)#!+1)2*!-$),/!#3

2(.#*/1%,)!!-$3(4224//.13

[insert Table 4 here]

-3(%#!2%.&%23),!3).-6!2/%1&.1,%$6)3(!++/.22)"+%#.,")-!3).-2.&$)&&%1%-

3)!+2+./%2"!2%$.-#(!-'%)-/.+)3)#!+23!")+)38 !-$!"2.+43%#(!-'%)-/.+)3)#!+23!")+

)38 &.1"1.!$23.#*#411%-#8!-$.)+,!1*%322%%!"+% !".5%(%1%24+326%1%

5%18#.-2)23%-3<)-#!2%.& !-$%7#(!-'%1!3% &!#3.126%1%!+6!82

2)'-)&)#!-3)-$%/%-$%-3.&.3(%1,.$%+&!#3.123(%1%&.1%24//.13)-'3(%#.-#%/3.&28-#(1.-)2!

3).- $%5%+./%$ "8 (!4 %3 !+ 


  !-$ %1%2%32*8 
  .-31!23)-'+8 3(% .)+ $)&&%1%-3)!+

2+./%6!22)'-)&)#!-3.-+8)-3(%!"2.+43%#(!-'% &.1,!224''%23%$"83(%4-#%13!)-

383(%.18!23.1!-$%1.-%2)


 4#(!(%3%1.'%-%.421%2/.-2%.&23.#*1%341-23.

$)&&%1%-3,!1*%32#.-$)3).-!+.-3(%#(!-'%2)-/.+)3)#!+23!")+)38)25%18)-3%1%23)-'%,/)1)#!++8

"43,!8"%1!3(%1(!1$3.%7/+!)-3(%.1%3)#!++8- #!2%.&,!1*%31)2*3(%424!+)$).28-#1!3)#

2823%,!3)# 1)2* $)#(.3.,8 %1%2%32*8


 !+)'-2 /%1&%#3+8 6)3( 3(% %5)$%-#%.6%5%1 3(%

)-3%1/1%3!3).-)2,4#(,.1%#(!++%-')-')-#!2%.&3(%#411%-#8,!1*%3-%.&3(%1%!2.-2&.1

24#( ! /%#4+)!1 "%(!5).41 ,)'(3 "% 3(% &!#3 3(!3 )-3%1-!3).-!+ )-5%23.12 !1% "48)-' !-$ 2%++)-'


.+1(!/.!"(!0%*#0$!%. !/%.!0+15+./!((1//%*.!#%+*(+),*%!/7/0+'/3$!*0$!,+(%0%

(/%010%+*%),.+2!/+.3+./!*//"+.!%#*%*2!/0+./)5$2!(!//!4,!.0%/!+"1//%*.!

#%+*(,+(%0%(,.+!//!/0$!5*!""!0! 5/1$$*#!/ %/,.+,+.0%+*0!(5$%/+*&!

01.! %/ (/+ %* %.!0(5 /1,,+.0!  5 0$! "0 0$0 3$!* 0$! ,+(%0%( !*2%.+*)!*0 %/ /0(! !4

$*#! .0! %),0 +* /0+' .!01.*/ %/ +* 2!.#! %*/%#*%"%*0 !2!.0$!(!// /1$ 0$!+.%/%*#

+!/*+0,.+2% !#++ !4,(*0%+*/"+.0$!"00$0/0+',.%!/* 0$!.+1(!)+2!%*0$!+,

,+/%0! %.!0%+*/3$!*,+(%0%(!*2%.+*)!*03+./!*/*/!+"0$!+%().'!00$!.!/1(0//1,

,+.0 0$! %*%0%( 1*!.0%*05 .#1)!*0 "+. %*0!.+..!(0%+* /0+. *  !.+*!/%




  

)%.+!4,(*0%+*+"0$%/)5!0$0%*2!/0+./.!,5%*#)+.!00!*0%+*0++),*5"1* )!*

0(/* .!(!2*0*!3/3$!*0$!.!#%+*%/,+(%0%((5/0(!* 0. %*#"+((+3%*#0$!0.!* +"+%(

3$!*0$!,+(%0%(!*2%.+*)!*0$*#!/* 0$!-1(%05+"0$!,.%20!/%#*(/0$!5+/!.2!%/1*

!.0%*

$!.!"+.!0$!/01 5$/,.+2% ! /1""%%!*0!2% !*!%*/1,,+.0+"3$%(!(/+/$+3

%*#0$003+0$!+.%!/+"/5*$.+*%/0%+*,.!2(!*0%*0$!(%0!.01.!.!+),(!)!*0/.0$!.0$*

/1/0%010!/!$+"0$!)$2%*#/%#*%"%*0!4,(*0+.5,+3!."+. %""!.!*0).'!0/

[insert Table 5 here]

"0!. 0$! .+1/0*!// +" 0$! .!/1(0/ 3/ !*/1.!  '%'! 3!%#$0/!  )+ !( 2!.#%*#

'%'!  #!*)'!./* ..!((


 3/,!."+.)! 0++),10!0$!,+(%0%(.%/'* 

%),0/$+',.!)%/! +*/!0+" %""!.!*0!/0%)0%+*/(! ,.!/!*0/0$!3!%#$0! 2!.

#!,+(%0%(/0%(%05  )+*0$(5* %),0/$+'


 
)+*0$(5,.!)%/0%)0! 

%*0!.!,0  %),(%!/0$0,+(%0%(.%/',.!)%1)%/6!.+%*.!#%+*/3%0$,+(%0%(/0%(%05

%* !4 !-1( 0+ +. $%#$!. 0$* 

 +*/%/0!*0 3%0$ 0$! 0 !0!./1.# +(%0%/ 1* 


 


0!+,.!/%.,()(%"-"%,-"%"-2"'1+/+2++'.,.%%2--+".--(&(,-,-%

+ "(',('%2

[insert Table 6 here]

1-)(%"-"%+",$)+&"(+.,,"'+ "(',0,%.%-,('-!&(,-+'-

)(%"-"% ,-"%"-2 ,(+, -+,.+  (%"-", .'


  ' -! 0" !-/+  ,-"&-,

(&).-(/!"&)%"-"(',(-!+,.%-,(+-!"'/,-(+,+-0((% "+,-(',!(.%

.'+-$-!(+(. !(--(&.)'%2,",(+"'/,-"' "'-('2+ "('%.,,"'(&)'2-(

',.+ " -! %/% ( )(%"-"% +",$ -$' &-!, ('4, +",$ ))-"- ,(' "'/,-&'-, "'-(

.,,"'(&)'",,!(.%+*.'-%2-+$'+/",,-!+",$+-.+'!+-+",-",(

-!,-($,&2!' (%%(0"' + "('%!' ,"')(%"-"%'/"+('&'-

[insert Table 7 here]

% (/,!(0,-!2'&",((.'-+2'+ "('%)(%"-"%+",$)+&"(+-!

,-($,(.,,"'(&)'",!*.+-+"'(,(0'"'--+,.+ /'0!' 2+

(/+'&'-('&('-!%22"%'+ .%21 +-"/)(%"-"%+",$)+(12+'(-!'+

( '

",-$',&,.+((.'-+20")(%"-"%+",$)+&".&-!+ "('%)+&"

+&.!!" !+%02,)-.+"' (/+ (-(-%)(%"-"%+",$1)(,.+)+"('-!&+$-

(+(/+-!+ "('%)(%"-"%+",$(&)(''-!' ,,.,-'-"%%20"-!-"&-!+(+"-",

)(-'-"%%2&(+.,.%"'1)%"'"' +",$'+-.+'/+""%"-2

'&2+ .-!-,-!,-.2(,'(-('-+(%(+'(-%'(&%",,.!,,"3'

/%.-,(+&(&'-.&(+(-!+(+&,(+",$)+""' ,.!,%"*.""-2)+&".&-!+,.%-,

&2,).+"(.,(0/+-!",",!" !%2.'%"$%2, -!(/+0!%&"' &#(+"-2(-!%+ ,-

' -! &(,- %"*." (&)'", + !*.+-+ "' (,(0  + "(' 0"-! &(+- %/% (

)(%"-"%,-"%"-20!"%,&%%+(&)'",+,--+%"-,(&0!-.'/'%2+(,,,-%


)0)./' - "$*).
1'0  !! /$.)*/1 -4)*/' *)/# 0..$)./*&(-& /5*-)*1

  (*( )/0(#. )$(+'$$/'4*0)/ !*-$)*) *!/# -*0./) ..# &. ,0

/$*). ))$!)4/#$)"#.*)'4increased/# +- ($ ./$(/ .

1 -'' /#  !$)$)". *! /#  ./04 #1  +-*1$  .$")$!$)/ ) .0!!$$ )/ 1$ )  /*

*)!$-( '' /#  #4+*/# . . )#1   (*)./-/  /#  - ' 1)  ) 3+')/*-4 +*2 - *! /# 

+*'$/$'-$.&/# *-$ .++'$ /*) ( -"$)"(-& /0..$

 
 

# *)'0$)". /$*)*!/# ./04.0((-$. .$/.(%*-!$)$)".$(+'$/$*).!*-

 ($.$)1 ./*-.)+*'$4(& -.$.0.. .$/.'$($//$*).).0"" ./..*( $ .!*-!0-/# -

- . -#$)/# !$ '

$-.//#$../04 1$ ) /# +-$$)"*!+*'$/$'-$.&*)/# 0..$)./*&(-& /*/#$)

/ -(. *! political risk premium ) impact-shock premium ) #$"#./$'$/4 - "$*). .0# .

40( ) *'./ )  ( -*1* *'./ (*)/#'4 +*'$/$' -$.& +- ($0( $. ,0' /*   )

 - .+ /$1 '42#$' ' ..+*'$/$''4.*0)- "$*).'$& -$(*-.&4&-$  )" 

./)

*!! -(0##$"# -+- ($)/2*(*./+*+0'*0.0..$)$/$ .*.*2)$)/

 / -.0-"2# - (*- /#) *!''0..$)'$./ *(+)$ .- # ,0-/ - /# - "$*)'

+*'$/$'-$.&+- ($- '.*.0./)/$')- .+ /$1 '4 "-$)"/# $(+/

.#*&+- ($0(/#  +*$)/$)- .  - . *!+*'$/$'./$'$/4$) 3$)/# - "$*)- .0'/.$)

+*.$/$1  ) "/$1  ./*& +-$  #)"  *!


  *) 1 -"  #  - .0'/. -  #$"#'4 .$")$!$)/

)-*0./2# )*)/-*'' !*-(-& /-$.&!*- $") 3#)" )*$'+-$ #)" .2 ''.

-*..*(+)41'0 $/$*)*- *1 -/# - "$*)'+*'$/$'-$.&+- ($0($.(0##$"# -/#)

*0)/-4+*'$/$'-$.&$)(*./*!/# - "$*). 1 )2# )/# '// -$. ./$(/ 4.0#) 3"


 " !  "   % "         "    

! 

  !%" synchronisation%   

  !     !  !%  

#  % %     %  $!     !   

   #    "  "   #   # 

! " !% #"    ! 

 "!  "     !  %"

  %   " "!  

  !  

  !% !  ! "!  

 !   !  !  

 %     !        !    $!  

#"  % # $




%!     "  !%   

#     #!# %

 "  "      ! 

 !%   !  %    !     !   

 

 !%   

      !

"     #  % ! %

  #  !       #    !   


'  !&(#!&! ! "!! #!#"

!  "&  !!"! ! ! ! !!  !"  $

!&!  $!!!! &  !!" )% "!#" 

    #"   !  !   ! ! !"   

! &! #!%!&$!!!!!!

  !!political risk premiumimpact-shock premium 

#! !!"!# ! ! !"&  $!!!!"&  !

" ! !!!# !!" !!!#!

 ! % !% #  !!& ""!" !  $

 !
! " &!# ! !"&!  #!!

 % "#!  $!!! ! " ! !

&!% ! " !!!   !!!!

!"#% "!&! # &!!!!" 

# !!!! !! !# ! ! !! "  !

! #!  " !! " # !&"& !$ $#!&

# ! ! !!! $!! !!! "!  !

& ! ! !"&  $!!! !!&  !

!! !"! ! ! ! #! "!&$

!!!"!!& $ " !  " "

! !!&!  ! !! !

 $!"   !!# !!##$"!&" ! " 

! !!"! !"!&#


"%#&#--#(',( -",-.2+&#'%2,,(#-0#-"-",&)%#-.-#%#,,,0%%,

0#-"-/#%#%#-2#,,.,,)#--",-.24,,&)%#'!,. ##'-%2%+!'+)+,'-

-#/-" --"--")(%#-#%,-#%#-2#'1",'%.%-('%2,#'-(+

%#&#-,

-")(,,##%#-#, (+,&)%"(#"+ (+-"+)%#-#('( -",-.20"'-"+#,&(+

-/#%%('-"+!#('%)(%#-#%,-#%#-2!#'
 &#!"-)+(/#/%.%#',#!"-,('

-"(',#,-'2( )--+','#'-+)''#,+/%2-",-.2#'-",-.2", (

.,1%.,#/%2('.,,#-"!'+%#,#%#-2( -"+,.%-,#,+!.%2%#&#-'/+-"%,,

-",-+('!-"(+-#%,#,( -"+,+"%%(0, (+,(&)%.,#%,).%-#(','&'#'!

.% )+#-#(', ,)#%%2 (+ (-"+ &+!#'! &+$-, (0/+ ,#&#%+ ,-.#, (+ -"  

+&'2'(-%/%()&+$-('(&#,' +-#(',0#-""#!"*.%#-2)(%#-#%#',-#

-.-#(','#(+ +3#%%#$.,,# &&+(.'-+#,0#-"&+!#'! #''#%&+$-,

' +-#/(+*.,# +-#/,--,-+.-.+,&#!"-(/#(.,%2#&)+(/-".'+,-'#'!( 

)(%#-#%+#,$)+##'!'-"+!#('% -(+(',#+%2.+-"+&(+/+#(.,(&)'2 .'

&'-%,,,(#-0#-"-"#+,',#-#/#-2-(!(/+'&'-)(%#2,--(0'+,"#),.,##,).%#

)+(.+&'- - (.%  #'(+)(+- #'-( .+-"+ '%2,#, -( # +'-#- -0' )(%#-#%

+#,$1)(,.+,( /+#(.,.,#',,&(%,'(0'+,"#),-+.-.+, #-#('%%2')+"),

&(,- #&)(+-'-%2 -"#, ,-.2 ", +/%  ' (+ ,#&#%+ +!#('% )(%#-#% ,-#%#-2 #'#,

'+#!(+(.,)(%#-#%+#,$,-.#,-%,- (+-"&+!#'!&+$-,,-"2&#!"-)+(/#-"#'

/,-(+,0#-"--+.'+,-'#'!( -"+#,$,-"2+-$#'!'-".,#&)+(/&+$- ##'2

 


+(,#&(/  #,,'#$   #'(0,$#  



 ,-#'! 0$ (+&  ##'2 (  -"

.,,#',-($&+$-European Finance Association Conference.


+-46/3;605965$#6*15965
The colonial origins of comparative de-

velopment: An empirical investigation  6 =  ):165)3 *;8-); 6. -+65641+ 8-

9-)8+0

+-46/3;605965$#6*15965%0)1+0)86-5(
 59:1:;:165)3+);9-94)+86

-+65641+9?47:649<63):131:?+819-9)5,/86=:0Journal of monetary economics50 


 
2)12-  )>14;4312-31066,1,-5:1.1+):1656.);991)5);:68-/8-991<-46<15/)<-8

)/-46,-39Biometrika60


 

3-915)  A@3-8 $ #6;*151   $=)/-3 "   "631:1+)3 159:)*131:? )5, -+65641+

/86=:0Journal of Economic growth1


 
 
)2-8$#3664 
 Does uncertainty reduce growth? Using disasters as natural

experiments 6=    ):165)3;8-);6.+65641+#-9-)8+0

)2-8 $ # 3664   )<19 $  


  -)9;815/ -+65641+ 7631+? ;5+-8:)15:?The

Quarterly Journal of Economics131     

-2)-8:)8<-?#;5,*3),%$1-/-3$
 "631:1+)38192978-),9Journal

of International Business Studies45     

-36)3)&1
 6<-854-5:97-5,15/7631:1+)3+?+3-9)5,:0-+86999-+

:1656.9:6+28-:;859Journal of Financial Economics107


  


-856:0   8,6/)5  



 $6<-8-1/5 *65, ?1-3, 978-),9  :14-<)8?15/ +6-..1+1-5:

)7786)+0Journal of International Money and Finance31    


0)5 (   '-1     "631:1+)3 8192 )5, 9:6+2 781+- <63):131:? :0- +)9- 6. 65/

65/Pacific-Basin Finance Journal4




 


0);--9649)2#')5/
"631:1+)3;5+-8:)15:?)5,9:6+24)82-:<63):131:?15

:0- 1,,3-)9:)5,!68:0.81+)5 !+6;5:81-9Journal of International Financial

Markets, Institutions and Money28





0-*)526<)  
 ;915-99 )5, 7631:1+9 15 :0- #;991)5 8-/1659Journal of Communist

Studies and Transition Politics26


  

02131 '  !/;?-5   


 >+0)5/- 8):- 46<-4-5:9 )5, 9:6+2 4)82-: 8-:;859 15 )

8-/14-9=1:+015/-5<18654-5:<1,-5+-.68#$+6;5:81-9Research in International

Business and Finance31 

688-)#--$)781@)$;)8-@
$6<-8-1/5+8-,1:8192*)529/6<

-854-5:9;7768:)5,*)529:6+28-:;859)86;5,:0-=683,Journal of Money, Credit and

Banking469
 



)5/#(6;$(
%0-147)+:6.613781+-906+2965:0-3)8/--4-8/15/+6;5

:81-99:6+2781+-9<1,-5+-.864015)5,1))5,#;991)International Review of Eco-

nomics & Finance29  

-34)5 &   %0- 7631:1+9 6. 36+)3 /6<-854-5: 15 #;991) %0- 5-/3-+:-, 91,- 6. :0- 9:6

8?Perspectives on European Politics and Society3   

6-:@4)55';)5/$
Momentum in imperial Russia!6=
 !):165)3;

8-);6.+65641+#-9-)8+0

681)-<    Risk factors in the Russian stock market.'68215/ ")7-8 !-= +65641+

$+0663!)20146<92? 
G681)-<$6515 Prosecutors and financial markets: an event study of the YU-

KOS affair'68215/")7-8!-=+65641+$+0663!)20146<92? 


8;2*.?)*+8=427 "2<4<8/27?.<=27027=1."><<2*7<=8,46*;4.=.<<87<8/

=1./2;<=-.,*-.Emerging Markets Review7    

>3*;*=2
 %<.8/->66A?*;2*+5.<27=.<=270/8;.:>*52=A+.=@..7<.=<8/,8.//2,2.7=<

27=@8527.*;;.0;.<<287<*78=.The American Statistician24


  

*55 #  %;0*    $.<=270 /8; 8708270 .//2,2.7,A 27 =1. "><<2*7 <=8,4 6*;

4.=Emerging Markets Group, Discussion Paper




*668>-.1# #*;2"%B>74*A* 2> $


$1.-A7*62,<8/"#<,8>7=;A

;2<4;*=270<*7--86.<=2,<=8,46*;4.=<%#<=8,46*;4.=*7-8259;2,.Mathematics and

Computers in Simulation94   

*><6*7
#9.,2/2,*=287=.<=<27.,8786.=;2,<Econometrica: Journal of the Econ-

ometric Society





277.+><,1"
8,*59852=2,<27#A;2*8;0*72B*=287*7-68+252B*=28727/8>;?255*0.

,*<.<Middle East Journal30



 

26C7.B  >2<"2,8   .72=8 <8;28  


 $1. 27/5>.7,. 8/ 9852=2,*5 ;2<4 87 =1.

<,89. 8/ 27=.;7*=287*52B*=287 8/ ;.0>5*=.- ,869*72.< 7<201=< /;86 * #9*72<1 <*6

95.Journal of World Business49 






.55A!*<=8;&.;87.<2!
$1.9;2,.8/9852=2,*5>7,.;=*27=A$1.8;A*7-.?2

-.7,./;86=1.89=2876*;4.=The Journal of Finance71


  

26(.2!
'1*=6*4.<=1.<=8,46*;4.=3>697*7*5A<2<8/9852=2,*5

;2<4 87 870 870 <=8,4 ;.=>;7<Journal of International Money and Finance20






277>7.7
A7*62,;.=>;79;.-2,=*+252=A27=1."><<2*7<=8,46*;4.=Emerging Mar-

kets Review15





422*67&38 
  “Bashneft” flew backwards. *86.*:*) (84'*6 
  +642

;;;0422*67&3869

422*67&38 
 & .>-3= 4:,464) -&7 (-&3,*) .87 (-.*+ 5*6743 *86.*:*) (84'*6 


 +642;;;0422*67&3869

422*67&38
 '$1&).2.698.3-&7+.6*)!&2&6&4'1&78,4:*6346.041&.*6097-0.3 *

86.*:*) (84'*6
 +642;;;0422*67&3869

46-43*3   *6*7*870=  


  %-&8 .3+19*3(*7 784(0 2&60*8 '*-&:.46 .3 977.& &3)

48-*6*2*6,.3,(49386.*7Emerging Markets Finance and Trade52 






*'*)*:'6&,.24: 309).34:
 !&3(8.437&3)8-* 977.&3784(02&60*8

Research in International Business and Finance, 40 ? 




.:464>-0.3&78&,3*84.77*=
  977.&3784(02&60*8.38-*&+8*62&8-4+8-*

#06&.3.&3(6.7.7Russian Journal of Economics2 


 

>4634:!
 $&1.).8=4+&2&&3)6*3(-24)*143 "!.3)*<Review of Business and

Economics Studies 

&7846   $*643*7.  



 #3(*68&.38= &'498 ,4:*632*38 541.(= &3) 784(0 56.(*7The

Journal of Finance67 



 

&7846   $*643*7.  


  41.8.(&1 93(*68&.38= &3) 6.70 56*2.&Journal of Financial

Economics110 
 

*6*7*870=  
  %-&8 )6.:*7 8-* 977.&3 784(0 2&60*8 ;461) 2&60*8 &3) 541.8.(&1

7-4(07International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics4 





 

*6488.$&3./*3
 6.:&8.>&8.43541.8.(&16.70&3)784(02&60*8)*:*1452*38

.3*2*6,.3,*(4342.*7Journal of International Money and Finance20  


*9*78':7,41.9.(8:3)
 Rating by the Petersburg Politics Fund. *97.*;*)(94'*7 


 +742<<<+5585'7:

4,:1.(-  # 


  39.(477:59.43 &(9.;.9= .3 9-* "7&38'&.0&1 7*,.43. Transbaikal State

University Herald, 20  

!&1**2   #&.-*0480.  


 7.(.3, 4+ ,14'&1 &3) 14(&1 84:7(*8 4+ 7.80 .3 :88.&3

894(02&70*9Emerging Markets Review9   

!&39& 1&7&#&10&34; 


 "-*57*8.)*39.&15:>>1*41.9.(&1(=(1*8&3)9-*894(0

2&70*9The Journal of Finance58    




!94(0*7
 "-*57.(*4++7**)42&2&?7*3(-+7**)42+&(947Emerging Markets

Review26  

"-*$&11!97**94:73&1
 &Political risks loom large on European markets *97.*;*)(

94'*7 
 +742<<<<8/(42

"-*$&11!97**94:73&1
 'Political risks loom over buoyant markets. *97.*;*)(94'*7


 +742<<<<8/(42

"-*$&11!97**94:73&1
 &Pain in Spain? Investors see lingering political risk in Catalo-

nia. *97.*;*)(94'*7 


 +742<<<<8/(42

"-*$&11!97**94:73&1
 'U.S. versus Europe: the political risk reverses in markets. *

97.*;*)(94'*7 
 +742<<<<8/(42

$&,*32&0*78    &77*11 ! 


   24)*1 8*1*(9.43 :8.3, 0&.0*

<*.,-98Psychonomic bulletin & review11  


 

%:'&7*;.(-  #  !&+7434; !  


  *,.43&1 .3*6:&1.9= .3 1&7,* 5489!4;.*9 (4:3

97.*8Regional Research of Russia1  





 
"'! #')(%#,#%+,#%#,0#'+(& -++#'* !#('+(. *," +&)% ) *#(

* !#('%)(%#,#%+,#%#,0

   
&(',"

(+(/ #', , *+-*!  *&+$0$*# ,*+,' +"$(*,(+,'


#1"'0(.!(*((%+, " %0#'+$(%+,  & *(.((%+, "',0'+#

    , *+-*!(%#,#+-'   




  !""!"#!
$#$"" $ "!
  #"##'


  !#!!$"#!#% $! """!!!!""! !"#!!$!"#!! """#!
  !!!!""#

&! #"#
#'  $#
!"($#""# !%
' !$#!"#!"$!#"$  

 "(

$! !#"





  ($
! &+*%%%&!$&'$ % '%% $! % 

 
 "!
!$&!$'%&$&("'$"!%%

  "!$&!$$'%&$&("'$"!%%%$$$$%%$"$% &$$($*%%$&'$  +&%&!%!%&!


 " %#'$&&$ &
$
$! $$$$$% &!)$$"!&%&&+   '&!$%,'&! %%! &"$!(
+!!$' '&$%&$%'$!
!&%' 


  !" %, '$"!$&%%



!"*%  (,. ,$*# 2  , *61(10$13*21%-0$/3 2(-,1  

$&0$11-0   
          (8.R)    (10.R)  

 
 
  

 

       
    0.03366    0.03217 
-,12 ,2

     
     
   (0.0119)     (0.0162)  
                    -0.00426      -0.00401  
-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14
  

              (0.0366)    (0.0493) 
   
  
 
  0.02314 
 
 0.02702 

'!,&%(,.-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14
    
   (0.0322) 

 
 (0.0146)  
   
     
  
  
 0.48097  

   0.50171
5"$11+ 0)$20$230,   
       (0.0000)   (0.0000)
     
   -0.06556       -0.03506
0$230,  

        (0.0060)  
 
 (0.331)
            0.10204      0.09970
0$,2-(*0$230, 

     (0.0000)   (0.0000)

-*(1(#!*01!"(*(143#%00+!/)%1 

/%12/,  


-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14  /%12/, 



  



-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14/%,1-(*/%12/,  
  
'!,&%(,.-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14 
    0.71142
3#%00+!/)%1/%12/,
 
  (0.0053)

'!,&%(,.-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14    0.90867


  /%12/,    (0.0007)

'!,&%(,.-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14 

    -0.01354


/%,1-(*/%12/,    (0.9244)

1/3 0$#    


          
      0.01841   

 0.01954 

3+!$0-%-!1$04 2(-,1






  13137
  13137 
-1%/3 2(-,1 ,# $12(+ 2$#!-2'31(,&(5$#%%$"21 ,# ,#-+%%$"21+-#$*1/3 2(-, 0$.-021 4$0 &$1*-.$1%-0+ 0)$2$5"' ,&$0 2$ ,#-(*
% "2-01,#(4(#3 *"0-111$"2(-, *#(%%$0$,2( *(,2$0"$.21 ,#1*-.$1(,$/3 2(-,1  ,#  0$,-20$.-02$#%-0"-,"(1$,$11.30.-1$1,"-,1(12$,2$12(+ 
2(-,1 0$.0$1$,2$#in italics%-00$%$0$,"$.30.-1$1-,*6-*(2(" *0(1)0$* 2$#$12(+ 2(-,1 0$&(4$,(,"-*$ ,#.4 *3$1 0$0$.-02$#(,. 0$,2'$1$1-2/#%
32'-017" *"3* 2(-,1! 1$#-,# 2 .0-4(#$#!6*--+!$0&$32$01$2$01!30&-*(2("13,#
  ,#"-+. ,($17 ,,3 *0$.-021 



!"*%
."423-%22#(%#*&.1!43.#.11%+!3).-/1%2%-#%
%'1%22.1          

           


       
.-23!-3
      
 
      
                   
-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14
                  
     
  

 
 

 
 


'!,&%(,.-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14
      
 
  
 

   
-0.00906 -0.00821 -0.00851 -0.00917
Lagged excess return (ER(-1))
(0.2985) (0.3417) (0.3244) (0.2884)
 
    
     

   
7#%22,!1*%31%341-
     

        
  1%341- 
     
 


     
       
1%-3.)+1%341-
   
'!,&%(,.-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14 
    
3#%00+!/)%1/%12/,
 
  

'!,&%(,.-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14   


  /%12/,    

'!,&%(,.-*(1(#!*01!"(*(14 

 
/%,1-(*/%12/,    

204!1%$      


            
4,"%1.&."2%15!3).-2
 
 
 
 
-1%04!3).-2 !-$!1%%23),!3%$6)3(!-$6)3(.433(%)-#+42).-.&+!''%$%7#%221%341-)-3.3(%,.$%+23),!3).-21%+!3%$3.!43.#.11%+!3).-!1%/1%2%-3
%$in italics.+)3)#!+1)2*1%+!3%$%23),!3).-2!1%')5%-(,"-*$!-$/5!+4%2!1%1%/.13%$)-/!1%-3(%2%2-2/#%!43(.129#!+#4+!3).-2"!2%$.-$!3!/1.5)$%$"8
+..,"%1'%43%12%3%12"41'.+)3)#24-$
 !-$#.,/!-)%29!--4!+1%/.132
 


&!
/#534.&33$)&$+'/2/''3)/2&$/-0".*&3:*-0"$4/.4)&&34*-"4*/.2&35,43
&(2&33/2 
 
                

                

  
    
   
        
/.34".4
       
  
  
           
  
   
  
  
   
  
 
 
  
  
    
 

 
  
 
 
  
)&%-%&,-%&%-/
 
         

        


   
  
      
      
    

$(#!%(*)&%-%&,-%&%-/
  

 
  
    
    
           
    
  
         
8$&33-"2+&42&452.
                             
                  
    
!! 2&452.! 
    
       
       

  

  
 

  
 

2&.4/*,2&452.
                 

)&%-%&,-%&%-/"",$)+! .''/  


 

$(#!%(*)&%-%&,-%&   
%-/"",$)+! .''/
  

8$&33-"2+&42&452.''3)/2&%5- 



-9     

!! 2&452. 

!     
 
 
2&.4/*,2&452. 
   

315"2&% 
   
  
  
  
      
  

 
 
  

 

5-#&2/'/#3&26"4*/.3












 

 

 





)-!15"4*/.3
 &34*-"4&%7*4)".%7*4)/544)&*.$,53*/./'/''3)/2&".%'/2&*(.#"3&%$/-0".*&3*.4/4)&3"-0,&".%&15"4*/.&34*-"4&%53*.(*8&%
''&$43-/%&,7*4)".%7*4)/54/''3)/2&%*''&2&.4*",3,/0&3/,*4*$",2*3+2&,"4&%&34*-"4*/.3"2&(*6&.*.#/,%".%06",5&3"2&2&0/24&%*.0"2&.4)&3&3).+!
"54)/23:$",$5,"4*/.3#"3&%/.%"4"02/6*%&%#9,//-#&2(&54&23&4&23#52(/,*4*$35.%
".%$/-0".*&3:"..5",2&0/243
 



 !+(6(56,0*1)5;0&+410,5$6,10+;216+(5(5)14#&744(0&;$0'1,./$4-(65

(*4(5514   


 
 
 

 

 

 

 )7..

         

  
  
 
  

1056$06
 
   
  
  
   
  
  
  
  


     
                    
1.,6,&$.56$%,.,6;  
                             
    
    

 
     
   

+$0*(,021.,6,&$.56$%,.,6;
    
            
   

       
     
   
  
       
        
:&(55/$4-(64(6740
                          
  
       
   

                  

"" 4(6740" 
 
  
   
          
         




  
 
    
   
       
4(061,.4(6740
          
             

    

+$0*(,021.,6,&$.56$%,.,6;       


      

:&(55/$4-(64(6740    
   


+$0*(,021.,6,&$.56$%,.,6;    
       
"" 4(6740"        

+$0*(,021.,6,&$.56$%,.,6;        

 


   
4(061,.4(6740              
 

%51.76(&+$0*(,021.,6,&$.56$%,.,6;      
    
  
  


:&(55/$4-(64(6740<<        
  
   


%51.76(&+$0*(,021.,6,&$.56$%,.,6;    
   
   
  
 
"" 4(6740<<"      
     
     

%51.76(&+$0*(,021.,6,&$.56$%,.,6; 
     
   
 

4(061,.4(6740<<        

537$4(' 
  
  

 
  
 
  

 
   
7/%(41)1%5(48$6,105
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
$..2155,%.(&1/%,0$6,1051)$%51.76($0'4(.$6,8(21.,6,&$.56$%,.,6;&+$0*(5,/2$&610/$4-(6&744(0&;$0'1,.4,5-(:21574(5$4(24(5(06(',0(37$6,105
 

37$6,10)7..,5(56,/$6('9,6+$..5,:2155,%.(',))(4(06,$.5.12(561(0574(4(57.641%7560(55 ,*0,),&$064(57.65)14',))(4(06,$.5.12(5$4(24(5(06
('$76+145=&$.&7.$6,105%$5('10'$6$2418,'('%;.11/%(4*(76(45(6(45%74*1.,6,&570'
$0'&1/2$0,(5=$007$.4(21465



 &%&!1!%#$.! (* !'

.*,          

*)-.). 
 

 
  
  
     
*'%.%'-.%'%.2   

 
 
 
 
   

$)#!%)+*'%.%'-.%'%.2     
              

&%&!%)"*,(.%*),%.!,%*)             


           

      
  

  
&%&!1!%#$.-   
    
 &%&!%)"*,(.%*),%.!,%&%&!
) 1!%#$.-1!,!'/'.! *)'2"*,(* !'-+,*0!).*!*)-%-.!).%)+,!0%*/-!-.%(.%*)-) .!-.-* !'
0!,#%)# 1- +!,"*,(!  1%.$%) .$! *) %.%*)' '%&!'%$**  ",(!1*,& #!)(&!,- )  ,,!''   )  ,!+*,.!      /.$*,-3 '/'.%*)-
-! *) .+,*0% ! 2'**(!,#!/.!,-!.!,-/,#*'%.%-/)  ) *(+)%!-3))/',!+*,.-

 


&(*/.",0/,*4*$",2*3+02&-*"'/23&,&$4&%533*".2&(*/.3
   
85-&./#,"34 
  
&-&2/6//#,"34   
)".48".3*   

"+)"    
"4"234".   
"3)+/24/34".   
/3$/7   
!"2/3,"6,/#,"34   
&2-3+8+2"*   
/34/6/#,"34   
"*.4&4&23#52(  
*9).8/6(/2/%/#,"34   
2"3./8"23+8+2"*    
2+543+/#,"34  

)&,8"#*.3+/#,"34  

-3+/#,"34    
"-"2"/#,"34    
2*-/23+8+2"*   
/24)33&4*"
 

"(&34".





4)&0/,*4*$",2*3+02&-*""2&2&0/24&%'/2 533*".2&(*/.3)"6*.(4)&,"2(&34.5-#&2/',*34&%$/-0".*&3)&"%15"24&2&%"37&,,"3'/2 -/342*3+82&
(*/.37*4)"4,&"34/.&,*34&%$/-0".8"6"*,"#,& )&02&-*""2&$",$5,"4&%53*.(+"*+&7&*()4&%&34*-"4*/.33&& "#,& ".%4)&-/342&$&.40/,*4*$",34"#*,
*48 %"4" "6"*,"#,& &04&-#&2
  
 "54)/23: $",$5,"4*/.3 #"3&% /. %"4" 02/6*%&% #8 ,//-#&2(  &54&23 &4&23#52( /,*4*$3 5.% 
  ".%
$/-0".*&3:"..5",2&0/243
 



 "1'&#+( (-',*1'*!#('%&(',"%1)(%#,#%*#+$)*&# (*(+(/'#',,*+-*!

 
 


 
 

   

   

   

(+(/)(%#,#%*#+$)*&#-&
#',,*+-*!)(%#,#%*#+$)*&#-&
   



 &(',"  



 &(',"  

(-',*1)(%#,#%*#+$ !#('%)(%#,#%*#+$ (-',*1)(%#,#%*#+$ !#('%)(%#,#%*#+$
(,%)(%#,#%*#+$ (,%)(%#,#%*#+$
   ," )*(01 (* (-',*1 )(%#,#% *#+$ #+ ," &(',"%1 1#% (  -++#'
1* !(.*'&', (' !#('% )(%#,#% *#+$ #+ %-%, -+#'! ," $#$
/#!",+,#&,#('+%  
-,"(*+2%-%,#('++(',)*(.#1%((&*!-,*+,*+-*!(%#,#+-'
'(&)
'#+2''-%*)(*,+


Highlights

 Returns of Russian stocks are inversely related to regional political stability

 Political risk premium is substantially high and varies across Russian regions

 Political factor is impactful both as long-term risk premia and short-term shocks

 Political processes crucially contribute to the synchronisation of stock returns

You might also like