Vulnerability and risk

produced by natural hazards

Assoc. prof. dr. eng. Cristian Arion

www.utcb.ro Bucharest
CRED. Natural Disasters 2019. Brussels: CRED; 2020.

2
Course 3
1. Major earthquakes
Earthquake
Note: Use your keyboard arrow keys to move through the slides

An earthquake is the
motion or trembling
of the ground
produced by sudden
displacement of rock
in the Earth's crust.
Earthquakes result
from crustal strain,
volcanism,
landslides, and
collapse of caverns.

Photo Credit:
National Geophysical Data Center
Structural failure #1

Northridge, California Earthquake

January 17, 1994
Magnitude 6.7 Photo Credit: J. Dewey,
U.S. Geological Survey
Structural failure #2

Loma Prieta earthquake,

October 17, 1989
Oakland, California
Magnitude: 6.9

Photo Credit: H.G. Wilshire,

U.S. Geological Survey
Structural failure #3

Santa Monica Freeway

Northridge earthquake,
January 17, 1994
Magnitude 6.7

Photo credit: M. Celebi,

U.S. Geological Survey
Structural failure #4

Armenian Earthquake December 7, 1988

Spitak, Armenia
Photo Credit: C.J. Langer,
Magnitude 6.9 U.S. Geological Survey
Structural failure #6

Izmit (Kocaeli) earthquake, August 17, 1999

Izmit, Turkey
Magnitude 7.4 Photo Credit: National
Geophysical Data Center
Landshift #8

Motagua, Guatemala
February 4, 1976 Photo Credit: U.S.
Magnitude 7.5 Geological Survey
Landslide #10

El Salvador
January 13, 2001
Magnitude 7.6 Photo Credit: USGS
Landslide #13

Alaska Earthquake
March 27, 1964 Photo Credit: U.S.
Geological Survey,
Magnitude 9.2 Menlo Park, CA
Liquefaction #14

Niigata, Japan
June 16, 1964
Magnitude 7.4 Photo Credit: National
Geophysical Data Center
Resulting fires #15
Great Alaska Earthquake
March 28, 1964
Valdez, Alaska
Magnitude 9.2

Photo Credit: EERI,

Slides on Learning from Earthquakes, Set IV
Resulting tsunami #16

Alaska Earthquake
March 28, 1964
Whittier, Alaska
Magnitude 9.2

Photo credit: U.S. Geological Survey

August 17,1999 İzmit earthquake (also known as the Kocaeli, Gölcük, or Marmara earthquake
August 17,1999 İzmit earthquake (also known as the Kocaeli, Gölcük, or Marmara earthquake
 Nobi earthquake 1891

Akira Wada
 Kanto earthquake 1923

Akira Wada
 On January 17, 1995

2020/10/12 New Seismic design of Buildings

2011 TOHOKU- Great East Japan Earthquake/Tsunami

Taro, Miyako city Taro, Miyako city Otsuchi town

Onagawa town Onagawa town Arahama, Sendai city

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 Damage Analysis of 2011 Great East Japan Eq.

Damage Comparison by three (3) Prefecture

Prefecture (A) (B)Totally (A)/(B) Damaged Flooded
Casualties Collapsed % Houses Km2
Iwate 6035 20184 29.8 32052 58
Miyagi 11367 82754 13.7 423271 328
Fukushima 1823 19770 9.2 223441 111
Iwate+Miyagi+Fukushima
19225 122708 15.6 678764 497
Japan 19295 127185 15.1 1011704 561

25
Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction, Germany - $365 billion
 Damage of 1992 earthquake (Liquefaction phenomenon)

EGYPT
EGYPT: Damage of 1992
earthquake

School building damaged by The shear failure occurred in the Cracks occurred on exterior wall
collision of buildings column above buildings

Damaged interior stone stairways of Shear failure of column facing expansion

non- reinforced masonry building joint (lateral re-bars cannot be seen)
 Damage of 1995
earthquake

EGYPT
 The Earthquake in Zhezkazgan Field
(01.08.1994, M=4.7)
Kazakhstan
 THE EARTHQUAKE IN ZHEZKAZGAN FIELD
(24.06.2005, M=3.9)
Kazakhstan
 THE SHALKARSKOE EATHQUAKE (26.04.2008, M=5.1)

Kazakhstan
New Zealand, 2010
 Christchurch before 2011 Earthquake

Akira Wada
Christchurch after 2011 Earthquake
 This research was performed within the
framework of the RO-RISK research project
“National Risk Assessment – RO RISK” –
(SIPOCA code: 30)

Example

ROMANIA
36
 Major earthquakes on Romanian territory in the
XXth century
Date Time Mw Casualties Building affected, economical losses
1 November 03:39 7,7 593 deaths Low rise buildings seriously damaged
10th 1940 (140 in Bucharest) The tallest reinforced concrete building in
1,271 injured Bucharest collapsed.
(300 in Bucharest)
2 March 21:21 7,4 1578 deaths - 156,000 apartments in urban zones and
th
4 1977 (1,424 in 21,500 rural houses destroyed or very seriously
Bucharest) damaged;
- 366,000 apartments in urban zones and
11,321 injured 117,000 rural houses to be repaired;
(7,598 in Bucharest) -destroyed 374 kindergartens, nurseries,
primary and secondary schools and badly
damaged 1,992 others.
-destroyed six university buildings and damaged
60 others
- destroyed 11 hospitals and damaged 228 others
hospitals and 220 polyclinics (health care centers)
- destroyed or damaged almost 400 cultural
institutions such as theatre's and museums
www.utcb.ro - damaged 763 factories.
US$ 2.048 billion equivalent loss
 Major earthquakes on Romanian territory in the
XXth century
Date Time Mw Casualties Building affected, economical losses
31 November
August 03:39
23:28 7,7
7,1 593 deaths
8 deaths Low rise buildings seriously damaged
30th 1986 317 injured
4 May 12:40 6,9 9 deaths
30th 1990 296 injured
5 July 12:42 5,6 2 deaths 5,000 rural houses in Banloc, hundreds to
12th 1991 30 injured thousands of homeless in Timi? County

www.utcb.ro 38
www.utcb.ro 39
Population and economic
exposure
 Population exposure might be characterized by the number and geographical
distribution of all city residents.
Exposure data is available from the latest census data, 2011.
The economic exposure is reflected in GDP at purchaser's prices (the sum of gross
value added by all resident producers in the economy).

Romania. Official information from the National Institute of Statistics

1992 Census 2002 Census 2011 Census
Population 23.286.794 22.628.665 20.121.641
No. of buildings 4.482.119 4.837.215 5.341.908
Housing units 7.666.181 8.111.391 8.723.699
GDP (current US$ Billions) 25,12 46,18 185,36

www.utcb.ro 41
www.utcb.ro 42
 This research was performed within the
framework of the RO-RISK research project
“National Risk Assessment – RO RISK” –
(SIPOCA code: 30)

Conclusion
According to the assessment developed, 75% of the population and 45% of the
vital networks are exposed to the risk of an earthquake.

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 Natural environmental HAZARDS

FLOODS

Floods (hydrologic) are the most common

environmental hazards. It regularly claims over
20,000 lives per year and adversely affects around 75
million people worldwide.
Koblenz, Germany, January 27,1995
Tanks holding
chemicals are
pilled up as a
result of the
extraordinary
flooding in the
region

/Source: Partner Re/

Ostrava, Czech Republic,

July 17, 1997
 Floods of 1987 in the Swiss Alps

The ground under a pillar foundation of a highway

viaduct was washed out by the Reuss River
 Venezuela, December 1999

Effects of Torrential Rains

 Snow hazard

Heavy winter – Bucharest 1954 Snow drift 2014

National Meteorological Institute of Romania was established in 1884
2013 – 258 stations
71% in lowlands, 12% in hilly areas,
4% on the sea shore and
13% in mountains

Highest altitude station at “Vȃrful Omu” – 2504 m

September 17, 2017 - West of Romania Windstorm
8 deaths
(Arad — 1, Bistrita Nasaud — 2, Timis — 5)

137 injured
(Alba — 6, Arad — 15, Bihor — 35, Bistrita-Nasaud — 15,
Cluj — 5, Hunedoara — 1, Maramures — 10, Salaj — 1,
Timis — 49)

Wind hazard
 “Welcome” to Timișoara

ISU Timiș
Timișoara - 92 damaged roofs, affected 204 trees and 30 cars.
Lugoj – 7 affected roofs,

Enel
Incidents on HVDC lines - 110 kV, affected the transformers in: Sânnicolau Mare, Giulvăz, Sebiș, Făget, Buziaș.
Damaged 8 HVDC lines and 70 of medium voltage lines, including 3 steel tower and 5 RC poles
energy supply was interrupted in 30 cities
Anthropogenic (man-made or
technologic) hazards

Major fires
 One explanation for the small number of old buildings in Bucharest
is the large number of fires during centuries (Ionescu Gion, History of
Bucharest, 1899):

1691 Fire and deaths ;

1739 Fire burnt 16 big houses, 49 mid hours, 77 small houses,

9 shops, Sf. Sava Monastery, Colţea Church and 3 other
churches;

1804 Fire in the entire town, carried by the wind. About 600
large and small houses, as well as shops, were burnt;

1824 419 houses were burnt down.

55
1847, 23 March, Easter Fire, at noon

This was the largest historical fire in Bucharest

The fire rapidly extended on the all streets of historic city center.

There were burnt:

• 12 churches,
• 130 houses,
• 1072 shops – on ground floors,
• 385 shops having ground floor and an upper storey,
• 91 inns;
• 15 persons were dead

56
Even today fire is one of the major enemies of the national built-up
heritage and of historic monuments.

Report no 72334/9 June 2008 of The General Inspectorate for

Emergencies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administrative
Reform for the Presidential Commission for Built-up Patrimony,
Historical Sites And Natural Sites in Romania, indicate between 1995
and 2008 a number of more than 550 fires on religious edifices in
Romania.

57
Approx. 30% of those fires severely affected religious edifices of
different confessions: 50% of fires were caused by technical issues;
30% of fire were caused by organizational issues.

Examples of modern-time fires with major effects on the cultural

heritage of Romania are those affecting:

- the National Village Museum „Dimitrie Gusti” in Bucharest:

- the Cathedral in Bistriţa (June 2008),

- and Asan Mill, Lizeanu / Obor, Bucharest (May 2008).

58
The fire at the Cathedral in Bistrita, June 2008
 The fire at the Asan Mill, Bucharest, May 2008

Asan Mill, built in 1853, is the first steam mill in Romania. It is an industrial architectural
monument under category A in the List of Historic Monuments, 2004, code B-II-m-A-19692.

It is located on a large area of land which is very attractive for immobiliare developments.
 California fires (9-12 October 2017)

23 deaths, 600 missing and more than 20.000 evacuated

Wildfires have burned nearly 170,000 acres (690 km2)

throughout the state.
The largest fires were in Northern California's Sonoma,
Napa and Mendocino counties,
Terrorism
Oklahoma City bombing
USA, 1995
 Mean Return Period/Interval
Values of a random
variable (natural hazard)
RP it is not the same
RP – return period
The loads due to natural hazards such (random variable)
as earthquakes, winds, waves, floods
were recognized as having randomness x
in time as well as in space.
The randomness in time was
considered in terms of the return
years
period or recurrence interval.

The recurrence interval also known as a return period is defined as the average (or expected) time
between two successive statistically independent events and it is an estimate of the likelihood of events
like an earthquake, flood or river discharge flow of a certain intensity or size.
It is a statistical measurement denoting the average recurrence interval over an extended period of time.

The actual time T between events is a random variable.

 Mean Return Period/Interval

Researchers proposed to use the term mean return period in relation -MRP with
the effects
and
to use the term mean recurrence interval - MRI in relation with the causes.
These concepts are used only to Natural/Anthropic hazards characterised by
randomness in time
These concept are not related/implicate with and cyclic regularity of the events!
In the natural hazard domain such as for: earthquake, wind, snow, floods, landslides
are the most use of these concepts.
The complete definition of MRI (or MRP): the mean recurrence interval, MRI of a
value larger than x of the random variable X.
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 Mean Return Period/Interval

Parameters which characterized the natural hazards such as earthquakes, winds,

waves, floods were recognized as having randomness/aleatory in time as well as in
space.
The randomness/aleatory in time is considered in terms of the return period –MRP
or recurrence interval –MRI.

The actual time T between two successive independent events that exceeded the
value x, is a random variable.
MRI (or MRP) of a value greater than x is defined as average time between two
successive independent events that exceeded the value x.
MRI (or MRP) are the average value of T .
69
 DISTRIBUTIONS OF PROBABILITY
4. Mean recurrence interval

a 10-year flood has a 0.1 or 10% chance of being exceeded in any one year and
a 50-year flood has a 0.02 (2%) chance of being exceeded in any one year.
It is commonly assumed that a 10-year earthquake will occur, on average, once every 10 years and that a 100-year
earthquake is so large that we expect it only to occur every 100 years.
While this may be statistically true over thousands of years, it is incorrect to think of the return period in this way.

The term return period is misleading. It does not necessarily mean that the design earthquake of a 10-year return
period will return every 10 years. It could, in fact, never occur, or occur twice. This is why the term return period
is gradually replaced by the term recurrence interval.

Researchers proposed to use the term return period in relation with the effects and to use the term recurrence
interval in relation with the causes.
 Mean Return Period/Interval
70
64.5

60 56.4
54.5

50
Vlori maxime anuale (cm)

44.4 45.6
42.3 42.6 42.3
39.5 40.3
38.8
40 37.6
36.1
34.3 35.5 35.4 36.5
33.5 32.3
30.9 31.6 32.0
30.4 29.8 29.5 30.3 30.2 30.430.5
29.3
28.6 27.9 28.8 27.7 28.5 28.7
30 27.5 26.6 27.4 26.2
27.6 27.0 26.8 26.9
25.7 25.3 24.1 25.2
24.3 24.9 25.2 23.4 23.3 24.3
24.0 23.4 23.0
21.0 21.6 22.6 22.0 21.2
21.1 22.1 21.922.5 22.6 22.3
19.9 20.2 19.3 20.0 19.3 19.8 19.0 19.8 18.8
20 17.3 17.4 17.817.4 17.0 17.1
16.4 15.7 15.8
15.2 14.0 15.9 15.2 16.2
14.8 14.2
12.2 12.412.2 12.8 11.8
11.4
9.8
10

0
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
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35
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An
Example:
Maximum yearly value of the ground snow depths during 100 year observation time
and the exceeded the value of x=40cm 71
 Mean Return Period/Interval

If we consider the Maximum yearly values of the ground snow depths

during 100 year observation time and the exceeded the value of x=40cm
We observed that in 100 years, the and the exceeded the value of
x=40cm occurred 9 times.
Time intervals,T between two successive independent events are 19,
11, 14, 7, 1, 5, 11 and 21 years

Consequently MRI of a value exceeded the value of x=40cm is 11 years.

This result is obtained even by divided the 100yr observation period
at 9 (times exceeded value) or we can calculate the average value of the
8 time intervals T. 72
 DISTRIBUTIONS OF PROBABILITY
Mean recurrence interval

The mean recurrence interval, MRI of a value larger than x of the random variable X:

Where: p is the annual probability of the event (X≤x) and FX(x) is the cumulative distribution function of X.

The mean recurrence interval of a value x is equal to the reciprocal of the annual probability of
exceedance of the value x.
The mean recurrence interval or return period has an inverse relationship with the probability that the
event will be exceeded in any one year.

MRI of MRP of an value x greater than fractil value, xp is:

 Mean Return Period/Interval

Example, MRI (or MRP) of an fractile value of x0,98 is:

1
MRI ( X  x p ) = T ( X  x p ) ; example: x0.98 similar xT 50 ; MRI 
1  0,98
 50years

MRI (or MRP) are statistically concepts. 100-year earthquake (i.e. the earthquake with
magnitude having MRI = 100years) is considered as appearing, on average, once in a
century.
Since the natural hazard is a random/aleatory event, the 100-year earthquake can occur
twice in a century or do not appear at all in a century.
Statistically we still have the 100-year earthquake because if we increase the
observation period over hundreds or thousands of years, in average he will appear
once in a century.
74
 DISTRIBUTIONS OF PROBABILITY
4. Mean recurrence interval

The mean recurrence interval is often related with the exceedance probability in N years.
The relation among MRI, N and the exceedance probability in N years, Pexc,N is:

Pexceedance, N (>x) = 1 – Pnon-exceedance, N (≤x) = 1 - [Pnon-exceedance, 1 (≤x)]N =1-pN

NN
 1  
T
Pexceedance, N (>x) = 1 - 1    1  e
 T (  x ) 

Usually the number of years, N is considered equal to the lifetime of ordinary

buildings, i.e. 50 years.
 Mean Return Period/Interval
70
Average of maximum value in 10 years = 44,9 cm 64.5

Standard deviation of maximum value in 10 years = 10,8 cm

60 56.4
54.5

50
Vlori maxime în decadă

45.6
44.4
42.3
40.3
40 36.5
34.3

29.8
30

20

10

0
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An

Maximum values of the ground snow depths, grouped on 10 years intervals, during 100 year
observation time
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 DISTRIBUTIONS OF PROBABILITY
4. Mean recurrence interval

Usually the number of years, N is considered equal to the lifetime of ordinary buildings, i.e. 50 years.

Correspondence amongst MRI, Pexc,1 year and Pexc,50 years

Mean recurrence interval, Probability of exceedance Probability of exceedance

years MRI, in 1 year, Pexc,1 year in 50 years, Pexc,50 years

10 0.10 0.99
30 0.03 0.81
50 0.02 0.63
100 0.01 0.39
225 0.004 0.20
475 0.002 0.10
975 0.001 0.05
2475 0.0004 0.02
 DISTRIBUTIONS OF PROBABILITY
4. Mean recurrence interval

The modern earthquake resistant design codes consider the definition of the seismic hazard level based on the
probability of exceedance in 50 years.
The seismic hazard due to ground shaking is defined as horizontal peak ground acceleration, elastic
acceleration response spectra or acceleration time-histories. The level of seismic hazard is expressed by the
mean recurrence interval (mean return period) of the design horizontal peak ground acceleration or,
alternatively by the probability of exceedance of the design horizontal peak ground acceleration in 50 years.
Four levels of seismic hazard are considered in FEMA 356 – Prestandard and Commentary for the Seismic
Rehabilitation of Buildings, correspondence between the mean recurrence interval and the probability of
exceedance in 50 years.
Seismic Hazard Mean recurrence interval Probability of
Level (years) exceedance

SHL1 72 50% in 50 years

SHL2 225 20 % in 50 years
SHL3 475 10 % in 50 years
SHL4 2475 2 % in 50 years
Thank You!
www.utcb.ro