No Bulan Prod Predict Alfa Index

1 Jan 14780 15097 0.133333 1

2 Feb 15670 15054.73 2
3 Mar 14490 15136.77 3
4 Apr 16788 15050.53 4
5 May 13990 15282.2 5
6 Jun 14509 15109.9 6
7 Jul 15767 15029.78 7
8 Aug 15489 15128.08 8
9 Sep 15898 15176.2 9
10 Oct 13999 15272.44 10
11 Nov 14768 15102.65 11
12 Dec 15123 15058.03 12
13 Jan 14856 15066.69 13
14 Feb 15231 15038.6 14
15 Mar 15064.25
Plot Trac
3
n = 14 2.5
2

Tracking Signal
1.5
1
0.5
0
0 2
-0.5
-1
-1.5
 Prod Predict Error Kum Er Abs Kum Er Kum Abs MAD Track
14780 15097 -317 -317 317 317 317 -1
15670 15054.73 615.2667 298.2667 298.2666667 615.2667 307.6333 0.969552
14490 15136.77 -646.7689 -348.5022 348.5022222 963.7689 321.2563 -1.084811
16788 15050.53 1737.467 1388.965 1388.964741 2352.734 588.1834 2.361448
13990 15282.2 -1292.195 96.76944 96.76944198 2449.503 489.9006 0.197529
14509 15109.9 -600.9026 -504.1332 504.1331503 2953.636 492.2727 -1.024093
15767 15029.78 737.2178 233.0846 233.0846031 3186.721 455.2458 0.511997
15489 15128.08 360.9221 594.0067 594.006656 3780.727 472.5909 1.256915
15898 15176.2 721.7991 1315.806 1315.805769 5096.533 566.2815 2.32359
13999 15272.44 -1273.441 42.365 42.3649994 5138.898 513.8898 0.08244
14768 15102.65 -334.6487 -292.2837 292.2836672 5431.182 493.7438 -0.591974
15123 15058.03 64.97116 -227.3125 227.3125116 5658.494 471.5412 -0.482063
14856 15066.69 -210.6917 -438.0042 438.0041767 6096.499 468.9614 -0.933988
15231 15038.6 192.4006 -245.6036 245.6036198 6342.102 453.0073 -0.542163

Plot Tracking Signal Exponential Smoothing

3
2.5
2
Tracking Signal

1.5
1
0.5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
-0.5
-1
-1.5
Banyak Data