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Occurring Mental Disorders
Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008.29:115-129. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
115
ANRV337-PU29-08 ARI 14 February 2008 16:0
High prevalence, early age of onset, substan- ple was carried out in parallel with the NCS-R
tial persistence, and high comorbidity were to study patterns and predictors of onset and
all documented consistently in these compar- progression of mental disorders (31).
NCS-R: NCS
ative analyses (17). The NCS-R and the other WMH surveys Replication
Perhaps the most concerning issue raised documented, consistent with the results of the
WMH Surveys:
by the ECA, NCS, and the other surveys that post-hoc ECA and NCS analyses, that many surveys carried out in
followed them was that the number of peo- mental disorders are mild (11, 25). However, the World Health
ple estimated to meet criteria for a mental the NCS follow-up study documented some- Organization’s
disorder in any given year was much higher thing else that was quite important: A substan- World Mental
Health Survey
than the number that could realistically be tial proportion of initially mild mental dis-
Initiative
treated. Commentators suggested that this orders progress to become serious disorders
observation might represent less of a prob- within a decade (31). This progression was
Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008.29:115-129. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
lem than it might at first seem because some common especially for seldom-treated child-
untreated cases almost certainly have mild or adolescent onset anxiety disorders, raising the
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self-limiting disorders that do not need treat- question of whether expanded early detection
ment (42). However, in the absence of infor- and treatment of mild disorders during the
mation about disorder severity there was no school years might have an important public
way to know how many cases were in ques- health effect in preventing the subsequent de-
tion. The ECA and NCS were unable to pro- velopment of more serious disorders.
vide definitive data on this issue because the The NCS-R, as a replication of the NCS,
main concern of these surveys was to make was also used to study time trends in the
categorical assessments of specific DSM dis- prevalence and treatment of mental disor-
orders. Clinical severity of these disorders ders during the 1990s. This was an impor-
was not a major focus. Nonetheless, post hoc tant exercise because substantial changes oc-
analysis provided some indirect information curred in mental health care delivery in the
about severity. These analyses strongly sug- United States during the decade between the
gested that a substantial proportion of DSM NCS and the NCS-R. The Substance Abuse
cases in the general U.S. population are mild and Mental Health Services Administration
(42). Comparable results were obtained in sec- (SAMSHA) found that annual encounters in
ondary analyses of surveys carried out in other specialty mental health treatment centers in-
developed countries (6, 11). creased by nearly 50% between 1992 and
Because the results regarding disorder 2000 (38). The National Ambulatory Medical
severity based on the ECA and NCS method- Care Survey documented that people receiv-
ology were post hoc, the next generation of ing health care treatment for depression more
epidemiological surveys invested much more than tripled between 1987 and 1997 (44). The
heavily in assessing severity. The U.S. survey Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Commu-
involved in this effort was the NCS Repli- nity Tracking Survey documented that the
cation (NCS-R) (30), which was carried out proportion of people with serious mental ill-
a decade after the NCS (2001–2003) using ness who received specialty care increased by
a substantially expanded interview that in- nearly 20% between 1997–1998 and 2000–
cluded a wider range of disorders and much 2001 (39). To the extent that these increases
more detailed information about disorder in treatment were effective, we might expect
severity (32). This expanded interview was that the prevalence of mental disorders would
also used in a series of community epidemi- be lower in the NCS-R than in the NCS.
ological surveys coordinated by the WHO in However, this was not the case. Compari-
its World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Ini- son of the NCS-R with the NCS found that
tiative (27). In the United States, a ten-year the prevalence of DSM disorders among peo-
follow-up of the original baseline NCS sam- ple in the age range 18–54 (the age range
included in both surveys in the U.S. household are used in all results reported here. The core
population) did not change during the decade CIDI disorders assessed in the NCS-R in-
between the two surveys (26). The prevalence clude mood disorders (major depressive disor-
DSM-IV: The
Fourth Edition of estimate was 29.4% in the NCS and 30.5% der, dysthymic disorder, and bipolar disorder),
the DSM in the NCS-R. However, treatment was anxiety disorders (panic disorder, agorapho-
CIDI: WHO’s found to increase dramatically, from 20.3% bia, specific phobia, social phobia, generalized
Composite of people with a disorder receiving treat- anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disor-
International ment in the NCS to 32.9% in the NCS-R. der, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and sep-
Diagnostic Interview Significant treatment increases were limited, aration anxiety disorder), substance disorders
Lifetime though, were much more pronounced in the (alcohol and drug abuse and dependence), and
prevalence: general medical sector than in other parts of impulse control disorders (intermittent ex-
Proportion of
the treatment system (159% increase) com- plosive disorder, oppositional defiant disor-
Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008.29:115-129. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
population ever
having a disorder as pared with a lower increase among psychi- der, conduct disorder, and attention-deficit/
of time of atrists, and showed an even lower increase hyperactivity disorder). Lifetime prevalence,
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assessment, among psychologists and other mental health age of onset, and 12-month prevalence were
recognizing that professionals (a 59% increase). Despite these assessed separately for each disorder (24). A
some could have a
increases, most people with mental disorders blinded clinical reappraisal study using the
subsequent onset
remain untreated, and those in treatment of- Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV
SCID: Structured
ten received suboptimal treatment (53). (SCID) (13) as the clinical gold standard found
Clinical Interview
for DSM-IV generally good concordance between DSM-
IV diagnoses based on the CIDI and the SCID
THE NATIONAL COMORBIDITY for anxiety, mood, and substance disorders,
SURVEY REPLICATION with area under the receiver operator char-
As implied above, the most recent estimates acteristic curve in the range .65–.88 for indi-
of the prevalence and correlates of DSM-IV vidual diagnoses (15). The CIDI diagnoses of
mental disorders in the United States come impulse-control disorders were not validated.
from the NCS-R. Because the remainder of
this review presents an overview of NCS-R
findings, we now discuss the NCS-R de- ESTIMATES OF LIFETIME
sign. The NCS-R is a nationally represen- PREVALENCE
tative household survey of 9282 respondents Table 1 shows the lifetime prevalence esti-
ages 18 and older in the coterminous United mates of the mental disorders assessed in the
States who were interviewed face to face in NCS-R. Some 46.4% of respondents had an
their homes between February 2001 and April estimated lifetime history of at least one of
2003. The survey included a diagnostic assess- the DSM-IV disorders assessed in the survey,
ment in a wide range of DSM-IV disorders whereas 27.7% of respondents had a lifetime
in addition to measures of many risk factors history of two or more disorders and 17.3%
and correlates. The response rate was 70.9%. had three or more disorders. The most preva-
More details on the NCS-R design and field lent class of disorders was anxiety disorders
procedures are presented elsewhere (23). (28.8%), followed by impulse-control disor-
DSM-IV diagnoses were made in the ders (24.8%), mood disorders (20.8%), and
NCS-R using Version 3.0 of the WHO’s substance use disorders (14.6%). The most
Composite International Diagnostic Inter- prevalent individual lifetime disorders were
view (CIDI) (32), a fully structured lay- major depressive disorder (16.6%), alcohol
administered diagnostic interview that gener- abuse (13.2%), specific phobia (12.5%), and
ates diagnoses according to the definitions and social phobia (12.1%).
criteria of both the ICD-10 (54) and DSM-IV Investigators sound significant differences
(2) diagnostic systems (32). DSM-IV criteria in prevalence estimates with age for almost
Table 1Lifetime prevalence of DSM-IV/WMH-CIDI disorders in the total NCS-R sample and by age.a
Reproduced with permission from Kessler et al. (24)
Total 18–29 30–44 45–59 60+
% (se) % (se) % (se) % (se) % (se) χ2 3
I. Anxiety disorders
Panic disorder 4.7 (0.2) 4.4 (0.4) 5.7 (0.5) 5.9 (0.4) 2.0 (0.4) 52.6b
Agoraphobia without panic 1.4 (0.1) 1.1 (0.2) 1.7 (0.3) 1.6 (0.3) 1.0 (0.3) 4.5
Specific phobia 12.5 (0.4) 13.3 (0.8) 13.9 (0.8) 14.1 (1.0) 7.5 (0.7) 54.3b
Social phobia 12.1 (0.4) 13.6 (0.7) 14.3 (0.8) 12.4 (0.8) 6.6 (0.5) 109.0b
Generalized anxiety disorder 5.7 (0.3) 4.1 (0.4) 6.8 (0.5) 7.7 (0.7) 3.6 (0.5) 39.9b
PTSDc 6.8 (0.4) 6.3 (0.5) 8.2 (0.8) 9.2 (0.9) 2.5 (0.5) 37.9b
Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008.29:115-129. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
OCDd 1.6 (0.3) 2.0 (0.5) 2.3 (0.9) 1.3 (0.6) 0.7 (0.4) 6.8
SADe 5.2 (0.4) 5.2 (0.6) 5.1 (0.6) – –e – –e 0.0e
disorderf 89.9b
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Any anxiety 28.8 (0.9) 30.2 (1.1) 35.1 (1.4) 30.8 (1.7) 15.3 (1.5)
II. Mood disorders
Major depressive disorder 16.6 (0.5) 15.4 (0.7) 19.8 (0.9) 18.8 (1.1) 10.6 (0.8) 49.9b
Dysthymia 2.5 (0.2) 1.7 (0.3) 2.9 (0.4) 3.7 (0.7) 1.3 (0.3) 10.6b
Bipolar I–II disorders 3.9 (0.2) 5.9 (0.6) 4.5 (0.3) 3.5 (0.4) 1.0 (0.3) 62.0b
Any mood disorder 20.8 (0.6) 21.4 (0.9) 24.6 (0.9) 22.9 (1.2) 11.9 (1.0) 58.0b
III. Impulse-control disorders
ODD 8.5 (0.7) 9.5 (0.9) 7.5 (0.8) – –e – –e 3.0g
∗g
OD 9.5 (0.8) 10.9 (1.0) 8.2 (0.8) – –e – –e 7.6
ADHD 8.1 (0.6) 7.8 (0.8) 8.3 (0.9) – –e – –e 0.2g
Intermittent explosive disorder 5.2 (0.3) 7.4 (0.7) 5.7 (0.6) 4.9 (0.4) 1.9 (0.5) 74.7b
Any impulse−control disorder 24.8 (1.1) 26.8 (1.7) 23.0 (1.3) – –e – –e 4.0bg
IV. Substance disorders
Alcohol abuse 13.2 (0.6) 14.3 (1.0) 16.3 (1.1) 14.0 (1.1) 6.2 (0.7) 60.2b
Alcohol dependence 5.4 (0.3) 6.3 (0.7) 6.4 (0.6) 6.0 (0.7) 2.2 (0.4) 45.2b
Drug abuse 7.9 (0.4) 10.9 (0.9) 11.9 (1.0) 6.5 (0.6) 0.3 (0.2) 168.7b
Drug dependence 3.0 (0.2) 3.9 (0.5) 4.9 (0.6) 2.3 (0.4) 0.2 (0.1) 90.0b
Any substance disorder 14.6 (0.6) 16.7 (1.1) 18.0 (1.1) 15.3 (1.0) 6.3 (0.7) 71.4b
V. Any disorder
Anyf 46.4 (1.1) 52.4 (1.7) 55.0 (1.6) 46.5 (1.8) 26.1 (1.7) 115.4b
Two or more disordersf 27.7 (0.9) 33.9 (1.3) 34.0 (1.5) 27.0 (1.6) 11.6 (1.0) 148.3b
Three or more disordersf 17.3 (0.7) 22.3 (1.2) 22.5 (1.1) 15.9 (1.3) 5.3 (0.7) 140.7b
VI. Sample sizes
Part I (9282) (2338) (2886) (2221) (1837)
Part II (5692) (1518) (1805) (1462) (907)
Part II OCD subsample (1808) (493) (566) (457) (292)
a Abbreviations: ADHD: attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder; CD: conduct disorder; OCD: obsessive-compulsive disorder; ODD: oppositional-defiant disorder;
PTSD: post-traumatic stress disorder; SAD: separation anxiety disorder.
b Significant age difference at the 0.05 level.
c PTSD was assessed only in the Part II sample (n = 5692).
d OCD was assessed only in a random one third of the Part II sample (n = 1808).
e SAD, ODD, CD, and ADHD were assessed only among Part II respondents in the age range 18–44 (n = 3199).
f These summary measures were analyzed in the full Part II sample (n = 5692). OCD, SAD, ODD, CD, and ADHD were coded as absent among respondents who
all the disorders assessed in the NCS-R, with that the patterns are substantively plausible
generally monotonic increases found starting and generally consistent with those found in
with the youngest (ages 18–29) to the next prospective studies. An examination of AOO
AOO: age of onset
oldest (for the most part, ages 30–44) age distributions is important for at least two rea-
Projected lifetime
groups, followed by a decline in the oldest age sons. The first reason is that information on
risk: Proportion of
population estimated group(s). The lifetime prevalence estimates of AOO allows us to distinguish between life-
to have a disorder at the disorders considered in the survey were time prevalence (the proportion of the popu-
some time in their always lowest in the oldest age group (60+), lation who had a disorder at some time in their
lives based on with the most extreme examples of this pat- lives up to their age at interview) and pro-
statistical projection
tern of differences occurring for drug abuse, jected lifetime risk (the estimated proportion
drug dependence, post-traumatic stress disor- of the population who will have the disorder
der, and bipolar disorder. by the end of their lives). Lifetime risk cannot
Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008.29:115-129. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
The NCS-R is not alone in finding these be estimated directly from community surveys
age patterns in estimated lifetime preva- because respondents differ in age and, there-
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lence. Most community epidemiological sur- fore, number of years at risk. However, pro-
veys find very similar patterns (17). A number jections of estimated future risk can be made
of methodological factors could account for from AOO distributions.
this pattern. For instance, people living in in- Second, an understanding of AOO is im-
stitutions (including nursing homes and other portant for targeting research on prevention
assisted-living facilities) are usually excluded of mental disorders (3), early intervention
from general population surveys, and people with prodromal or incipient mental disorders
who die early are always excluded, which in- (33), and primary prevention of secondary
correctly implied that elderly survey partici- disorders (19). In the absence of AOO
pants were especially healthy. It is noteworthy information, we would have no way to know
in this regard that mental disorders have sig- the appropriate age range to target preventive
nificant risk factors for early mortality (8). The interventions. A related issue is that early
lower reported lifetime prevalence of men- AOO is often associated with greater disorder
tal disorders among older respondents may severity (28), persistence (10), and lack of
also be due to a genuine cohort effect, that is, treatment response (43). On the basis of these
the risk could actually be increasing in people associations, AOO information can be useful
born in the younger generations. Regardless in making projections of aggregate illness
of the interpretation of the pattern, though, course associated with primary and secondary
the implication is that lifetime prevalence es- disorders.
timates in community surveys should be con- The disorder-specific estimates of AOO in
sidered lower bounds on the estimates in re- the NCS-R, which are shown elsewhere (24),
cent cohorts. are very similar to those in the other WMH
surveys (22) in all major respects. In all these
surveys, the impulse-control disorders have
AGE OF ONSET the earliest AOO distributions of any disor-
Although age of onset (AOO) is one of the ders studied, with median AOO in middle
least commonly studied aspects of descriptive childhood for attention-deficit/hyperactivity
epidemiology, it has important implications disorder (ADHD), middle-late childhood
for clinical practice and research. The dearth for oppositional-defiant disorder (ODD) and
of information on AOO of mental disorders conduct disorder (CD), and late childhood
is presumably due to reluctance on the part of to late adolescence for intermittent explo-
epidemiologists to rely on the retrospective sive disorder (IED). Impulse-control disor-
reports obtained in general-population sur- ders also have an extremely narrow age
veys. However, analysis of these data shows range of onset risk. For example, 80% of all
lifetime ADHD cases begins in the age range is noteworthy that the projected lifetime risk
4–11, whereas the vast majority of ODD and of a given DSM-IV disorder in the NCS was,
CD cases begins between ages 5 and 15. Fully on average, one third higher than estimated
Comorbidity: the
half of all lifetime IED begins in childhood or lifetime prevalence. This means that for ev- joint occurrence of
adolescence. ery 10 people who already have a history of two or more
Some anxiety disorders—the phobias and any given mental disorder, 3–4 people in the disorders in the same
separation anxiety disorder (SAD)—also have population are likely to develop the disorder at person
very early AOO distributions in the NCS- some point in the future. Not surprising, the
R, with median AOO in the range of early- highest class-specific proportional increase in
middle childhood and interquartile range projected lifetime risk vs. prevalence was as-
(IQR; 25th–75th percentiles of the AOO dis- sociated with mood disorders, and the low-
tributions) of 4–20 years of age. The other est was associated with impulse-control dis-
Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008.29:115-129. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
anxiety disorders, in comparison, have consid- orders. This demonstrates the fact that many
erably later AOO distributions than the pho- mood disorders begin in middle age or old
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bias and SAD do, although the cross-national age, whereas most impulse-control disorders
variation in both median AOO (age range 25– begin in childhood or adolescence.
53) and IQR AOO (age range 15–75) is con- The high comorbidity known to exist
siderably wider than for the impulse-control among impulse-control disorders (18, 20, 35)
disorders or the phobias or SAD. The mood is expected to result in many respondents
disorder AOO distributions are quite simi- who developed child or adolescent impulse-
lar to those for the later-onset anxiety disor- control disorders or early-onset anxiety disor-
ders, with consistently low prevalence until ders and experienced subsequent onsets of co-
the early teens followed by a roughly linear morbid disorders that typically have later ages
increase through late middle age and a declin- of onset, such as substance, mood, or later-
ing increase thereafter. The median AOO of onset anxiety disorders. This possibility was
mood disorders has a very wide range across investigated in the NCS-R by comparing the
countries (ages 25–45) and an even wider IQR risk-to-prevalence ratios of any disorder vs.
(ages 17–65). individual disorders. Most projected new on-
Finally, the AOO distributions of sub- sets of individual disorders were found to be
stance use disorders in the NCS-R are quite secondary disorders, as indicated by the fact
tightly grouped in that few onsets occur prior that the risk-to-prevalence ratio for any dis-
to the mid-teens and cumulative increase in order was close to 1.0. Very similar patterns
onset is rapid in adolescence and early adult- were found in other WMH surveys (22).
hood. Considerable variation exists, however,
in the sharpness of the change in the slope
as well as in the age range of this change, TWELVE-MONTH PREVALENCE
leading to wider variation in both the me- AND SEVERITY
dian (ages 18–29) and the interquartile range Mental disorders that were active within the
(ages 16–43) of the AOO distributions than 12 months of the NCS-R interview were clas-
for impulse-control disorders or early-onset sified by severity using a complex classifica-
anxiety disorders but lower variation than for tion scheme. Cases were classified serious if
mood disorders or other anxiety disorders. they had any of the following: a 12-month
suicide attempt with serious lethality intent;
work disability or substantial work limitation
PROJECTED LIFETIME RISK due to a mental or substance disorder; a posi-
As noted in the previous section, one impor- tive screen for nonaffective psychosis, bipo-
tant reason for estimating AOO distributions lar I or II disorder; substance dependence
is to obtain data on projected lifetime risk. It with serious role impairment (as defined by
ability Scales (SDS) [the SDS assessed dis- lar disorder had the highest proportion of
ability in work role performance, household serious cases (82.9%) among mood disor-
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maintenance, social life, and intimate rela- ders, ODD had the highest (49.6%) among
tionships on 0–10 visual analogue scales with impulse-control disorders, and drug depen-
verbal descriptors, and associated scale scores dence had the highest (56.5%) among sub-
of none (0), mild (1–3), moderate (4–6), se- stance disorders.
vere (7–9), and very severe (10)] (36). All other Tetrachoric correlations between all log-
cases were classified mild. This classification ically possible pairs of these disorders were
scheme is somewhat more refined than the estimated and found to be nearly all positive
one used in comparative analyses of all WMH and statistically significant (25). The highest
surveys (11) because the NCS-R has more de- correlations involved well-known syndromes:
tailed information than the other WMH sur- bipolar disorder (major depressive episode
veys. To assess the meaningfulness of these with mania-hypomania), double-depression
severity ratings, number of days in the past (major depressive episode with dysthymia),
12 months when respondents were totally un- anxious-depression (major depressive episode
able to carry out their normal daily activities with generalized anxiety disorder), comorbid
because of mental or substance problems was mania-hypomania and ADHD, panic disor-
compared across categories. The mean of this der with agoraphobia, comorbid social phobia
variable was significantly higher (F2,5689 = with agoraphobia, and comorbid substance
17.7, p < 0.001) among respondents classified disorders (both alcohol abuse and dependence
serious (88.3) than those classified moderate with drug abuse and dependence).
(4.7) or mild (1.9). The correlation matrix was explored with
Table 2 shows the 12-month prevalence factor analysis, and a two-factor solution was
estimates of the DSM-IV disorders assessed the best fit (25). Rotation to a varimax solution
in the NCS-R. The highest of these esti- showed that the first factor had high factor
mates is for specific phobia (8.7%), social loadings for internalizing disorders (anxiety
phobia (6.8%), and major depressive disorder disorders, major depressive episode), whereas
(6.7%). Among classes, anxiety disorders are the second factor had high factor loadings for
the most prevalent (18.1%), followed by mood externalizing disorders (CD, substance disor-
disorders (9.5%), impulse-control disorders ders). This pattern is very similar to the one
(8.9%), and substance disorders (3.8%). The found in previous factor analyses of comor-
12-month prevalence of any of these disor- bidity matrices using community epidemio-
ders is estimated to be 26.2%, with more than logical studies (20, 34, 49).
half of cases (14.4% of the total sample) hav- Among the 219 or 524,288 logically pos-
ing only one disorder and smaller proportions sible multivariate disorder profiles that can
having two (5.8%) or more (6.0%). be made from the 19 NCS-R disorders
Post-traumatic stress disorderb 3.5 (0.3) 36.6 (3.5) 33.1 (2.2) 30.2 (3.4)
Obsessive-compulsive disorderc 1.0 (0.3) 50.6 (12.4) 34.8 (14.1) 14.6 (5.7)
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Separation anxiety disorderd 0.9 (0.2) 43.3 (9.2) 24.8 (7.5) 31.9 (12.2)
Any anxiety disordere 18.1 (0.7) 22.8 (1.5) 33.7 (1.4) 43.5 (2.1)
II. Mood disorders
Major depressive disorder 6.7 (0.3) 30.4 (1.7) 50.1 (2.1) 19.5 (2.1)
Dysthymia 1.5 (0.1) 49.7 (3.9) 32.1 (4.0) 18.2 (3.4)
Bipolar I–II disorders 2.6 (0.2) 82.9 (3.2) 17.1 (3.2) 0.0 (0.0)
Any mood disorder 9.5 (0.4) 45.0 (1.9) 40.0 (1.7) 15.0 (1.6)
III. Impulse-control disorders
Oppositional-defiant disorderd 1.0 (0.2) 49.6 (8.0) 40.3 (8.7) 10.1 (4.8)
Conduct disorderd 1.0 (0.2) 40.5 (11.1) 31.6 (7.5) 28.0 (9.1)
Attention-deficit/hyperactivity 4.1 (0.3) 41.3 (4.3) 35.2 (3.5) 23.5 (4.5)
disorderd
Intermittent explosive disorder 2.6 (0.2) 23.8 (3.3) 74.4 (3.5) 1.7 (0.9)
Any impulse-control disorderd,f 8.9 (0.5) 32.9 (2.9) 52.4 (3.0) 14.7 (2.3)
IV. Substance disorders
Alcohol abuseb 3.1 (0.3) 28.9 (2.6) 39.7 (3.7) 31.5 (3.3)
Alcohol dependenceb 1.3 (0.2) 34.3 (4.5) 65.7 (4.5) 0.0 (0.0)
Drug abuseb 1.4 (0.1) 36.6 (5.0) 30.4 (5.8) 33.0 (6.8)
Drug dependenceb 0.4 (0.1) 56.5 (8.2) 43.5 (8.2) 0.0 (0.0)
Any substance disorderb 3.8 (0.3) 29.6 (2.8) 37.1 (3.5) 33.4 (3.2)
V. Any disorder
Anye 26.2 (0.8) 22.3 (1.3) 37.3 (1.3) 40.4 (1.6)
One disordere 14.4 (0.6) 9.6 (1.3) 31.2 (1.9) 59.2 (2.3)
Two disorderse 5.8 (0.3) 25.5 (2.1) 46.4 (2.6) 28.2 (2.0)
Three or more disorderse 6.0 (0.3) 49.9 (2.3) 43.1 (2.1) 7.0 (1.3)
a Percentages in the three severity columns are repeated as proportions of all cases and sum to 100% across each row.
b Assessed in the Part II sample (n = 5692).
c Assessed in a random one third of the Part II sample (n = 1808).
d Assessed in the Part II sample among respondents in the age range 18–44 (n = 3199).
e Estimated in the Part II sample. No adjustment is made for the fact that one or more disorders in the category were not assessed for all Part
II respondents.
f The estimated prevalence of any impulse-control disorder is larger than the sum of the individual disorders because the prevalence of
intermittent explosive disorder, the only impulse-control disorder that was assessed in the total sample, is reported here for the total sample
rather than for the subsample of respondents among whom the other impulse-control disorders were assessed (Part II respondents in the age
range 18–44). The estimated prevalence of any impulse-control disorder, in comparison, is estimated in the latter subsample. Intermittent
explosive disorder has a considerably higher estimated prevalence in this subsample than in the total sample.
assessed, 433 were observed (25). Nearly 80% generally support these lay diagnoses in the
of these patterns involved highly comorbid aggregate, arguing against an overestimation
cases (three or more disorders), which ac- of prevalence based on invalidity of diagnoses
counted for 27.0% of all respondents with a from lay interviews. Indeed, the more gen-
disorder and 55.9% of all instances of these eral pattern is for clinical interviews to di-
disorders. The distribution of comorbidity in agnose more cases than lay interviews. Fur-
these profiles was significantly different (χ 2 3 thermore, the fact that the diagnoses in these
= 110.2, p < 0.001) from the distribution we interviews do not include all those in DSM-
would expect to find if the multivariate struc- IV adds another layer of conservative bias to
ture among the disorders was due entirely to the overall prevalence estimates. It seems safe
the two-way associations that are the focus of to conclude, on the basis of these considera-
factor analysis. The full set of implications of tions, that a very high proportion of people in
Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008.29:115-129. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
this finding is not yet clear, but one important the general U.S. population meet criteria for
implication is that the structure of comorbid- a DSM-IV disorder.
Access provided by 114.5.108.204 on 10/28/21. For personal use only.
ity is too complex to study merely with the Along with their high prevalence, perhaps
kinds of factor-analytic models that have been the most striking finding is the generally early
used up to now. AOO of mental disorders, with first onsets
concentrated in the first two decades of life
and later-onset disorders occurring largely as
DISCUSSION temporally secondary comorbid conditions.
The results of the NCS-R and other commu- These findings are, of course, limited by the
nity epidemiological surveys are limited by the fact that they are based on retrospective re-
fact that they focus on the household popula- call, but the results based on these retrospec-
tion and exclude population segments likely tive reports are consistent with the results of
to have high proportions of the severely men- epidemiological surveys of children and ado-
tally ill (e.g., the homeless and people living in lescents. These early AOO distributions sug-
institutions). Furthermore, systematic survey gest that mental disorders are uniquely bur-
nonresponse (i.e., people with mental disor- densome to the young. This contrasts sharply
ders having a higher survey refusal rate than with almost all chronic physical disorders,
those without disorders) and systematic non- which have conditional risks that increase with
reporting (i.e., recall failure, conscious nonre- age rather than having their highest risk in
porting, or error in the diagnostic evaluation) childhood or adolescence, typically peaking in
could lead to bias in the estimates of disor- late middle or old age (41).
der prevalence or unmet need for treatment in The cohort effect in the NCS-R, with in-
these surveys, particularly for lifetime events. creasing prevalence of many types of disor-
Given what we know about the associations ders in more recent cohorts, deserves further
between true prevalence and these errors (1, consideration. This pattern varied in plausi-
9, 12, 23, 50), it is likely that disorder preva- ble ways (e.g., largest with substance disor-
lence is underestimated. This makes the high ders, which are independently known to have
prevalence estimates found in these surveys all increased among cohorts that went through
the more striking. adolescence beginning in the 1970s) and had
An additional limitation is that surveys like plausible sociodemographic correlates (e.g.,
the NCS-R use fully structured diagnostic increasing similarity of women and men in
interviews administered by trained lay inter- substance use disorders in recent cohorts).
viewers rather than clinician-administered in- These patterns argue for the cohort effect in
terviews. This practice could introduce im- the survey data being caused at least in part
precision into prevalence estimates. However, by substantive rather than entirely method-
as noted above, clinical reappraisal interviews ological factors. Nonetheless, methodological
effects are likely based on the fact that longi- Despite these uncertainties, the NCS-R
tudinal studies demonstrate that mental dis- findings of high lifetime prevalence, early
orders are associated with early mortality (7) AOO, high comorbidity, and substantial per-
and that resolved mental disorders reported sistence, when coupled with independent data
in baseline interviews often are not reported documenting adverse effects of mental disor-
in follow-up interviews (5). To the extent that ders on role functioning (14, 37, 40), suggest
these biases are at work, the high prevalence that greater attention should be paid to public
found in the younger NCS-R cohorts might health interventions that target the childhood
also apply to older cohorts. The only way to and adolescent years when mental disorders
resolve this uncertainty is to carry out par- so often begin. With appropriately balanced
allel longitudinal surveys of mental disorders considerations of potential risks and bene-
in successive cohorts, possibly along the lines fits, focus is also needed on early interven-
Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008.29:115-129. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
of the surveys of drug use that the National tions aimed at preventing the progression of
Institute of Drug Abuse and, more recently, primary disorders and the onset of comorbid
Access provided by 114.5.108.204 on 10/28/21. For personal use only.
the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Ser- disorders to supplement the current focus on
vices Administration have carried out since treatment of more serious disorders begin-
the 1970s to monitor trends in drug use. ning in adulthood.
SUMMARY POINTS
1. The prevalence of mental disorders in the United States is very high, with roughly half
the population meeting criteria for one or more DSM-IV disorders at some time in
their lives and more than one fourth of the population meeting criteria for a disorder
in any given year.
2. Most people with a lifetime mental disorder had their first onset in childhood or
adolescence.
3. Later-onset disorders typically are temporally secondary comorbid conditions.
4. Disorder severity is strongly associated with high comorbidity, even though the tem-
porally primary disorder is often relatively mild.
5. Little is known about the public health effects of early detection and intervention to
treat child-adolescent disorders on the subsequent progression of primary disorders
or the onset of temporally secondary comorbid disorders, but this is an obvious area
for future investigation.
FUTURE ISSUES
1. Little is known about the epidemiology of child mental disorders. Controversy ex-
ists, in fact, about how best to assess mental illness in children. Reports obtained
from parents, teachers, and children themselves often differ greatly. Resolution of
uncertainties about measurement and expansion of available data about prevalence,
correlates, and changes over the course of childhood and adolescence are needed.
2. Long-term longitudinal studies are needed of the associations between childhood
mental disorders and adult mental disorders and about risk factors for persistence-
progression in the transition to adulthood as well as throughout the adult years.
3. Although categorical models of mental disorder are dominant in the existing DSM
system, considerable evidence shows that dimension models might make more sense
for many mental disorders. Future epidemiological research is needed to help shed
light on this issue.
4. Advances in our understanding of the genetics of mental disorders will make it in-
creasingly important to integrate the collection of genetic information into population
epidemiological studies.
5. Expansion of our understanding of risk and protective factors for the onset and per-
sistence of mental disorders requires more serious efforts than researchers have made
up to now to search for and analyze the effects of natural experiments and natural
Annu. Rev. Public Health 2008.29:115-129. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
R.K. has been a consultant for Astra Zeneca, BristolMyersSquibb, Eli Lilly and Co,
GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, and Wyeth and has had research support for his epidemiological stud-
ies from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Company, Ortho-McNeil, Pfizer, and the Pfizer
Foundation.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Preparation of this paper was supported by NIMH grant U01-MH60220 with supplemental
support from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), the Substance Abuse and Mental
Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF;
Grant 044780), and the John W. Alden Trust and was carried out in conjunction with the World
Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Survey Initiative. The core activities of
WMH are supported by the National Institute of Mental Health (R01 MH070884), the John D.
and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Pfizer Foundation, the US Public Health Service
(R13-MH066849, R01-MH069864, and R01 DA016558), the Fogarty International Center
(FIRCA R03-TW006481), the Pan American Health Organization, Eli Lilly and Company,
McNeil Pharmaceutical, Inc., GlaxoSmithKline, and Bristol-Myers Squibb. A complete list
of WMH publications can be found at http://www.hcp.med.harvard.edu/wmh/. The views
and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and should not be construed to
represent the views of any of the sponsoring organizations, agencies, or the U.S. Government.
The authors appreciate the helpful comments from Kathleen Merikangas, Michael Von Korff,
and Hans-Ulrich Wittchen on an earlier draft of this review.
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viii Contents
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A Critical Review of Theory in Breast Cancer Screening Promotion
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Contents ix
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