16/11/21, 02:00 Probability and Risk: Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?

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Probability and Risk

Improving public understanding of probability and risk with special emphasis on its application to the law. Why Bayes theorem and
Bayesian networks are needed

Sunday, 14 November 2021 Book "Risk Assessmen

and Decision Analysis
with Bayesian
Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion? Networks"

Book blog page

To evaluate the risk/benefit of a
vaccine for treating a virus, such as covid-19, we can compare the all-cause
Buy (Amazon)
mortality rate of vaccinated against unvaccinated people on a periodic basis.
If the mortality rate for those
Buy (CRC Press)
vaccinated is consistently lower than that for
unvaccinated then we might conclude the vaccine must be
beneficial.
Key readings
Placebo Vaccination
Norman Fenton Bayes and causal
Imagine that a placebo rather
than a vaccine is quickly rolled out to a population of one million people of
similar modelling in
Norman Fenton is decision making,
age and health. Let’s assume the weekly non-virus mortality rate for
this population is 15 per 100,000 (100k),
Professor in Risk uncertainty and ris
so we would expect about 150 out of
the million to die in any given week. Because the placebo changes
Information Irrational
Management at
nothing, the
mortality rates for both vaccinated and unvaccinated average the same 15 per
100k, each week restrictions on
Queen Mary every week. Hence, on average, what we should observe – as the
‘vaccination’ programme rolls out to most of Bayes in the Law
University of London the population - is shown in Table
1. Notice that the placebo vaccine roll-out programme is enacted at pace and Probability
and also a Director of the cumulative percentage of the population vaccinated rises to 98% within 12
weeks. Fallacies and the
Agena, a company Law
that specialises in risk Table 1
Roll out of placebo ‘vaccine’. No observed differences in mortality rates (no
population growth and each week total population reduced by
management for previous week’s
deaths)
critical systems.
Labels
  Vaccinated Unvaccinated AgenaRisk

Cumulative Deaths Population Mortality rate Deaths Population Mortality rate Bayes and
Percentage
probability theory
Week Population vaccinated case study
COVID
1 1,000,000 0.5 1 5,000 15 149 995,000 15
legal reasoning
2 999,850 1 1 9,999 15 148 989,852 15 likelihood ratio
medical
3 999,700 2 3 19,994 15 147 979,706 15
New paper
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Martin Neil 5 999,400 7 10 69,958 15 139 929,442 15 risk assessment

Martin is Professor in 6 999,250 14 21 139,895 15 129 859,355 15

Computer Science Links
and Statistics at 7 999,100 28 42 279,748 15 108 719,352 15
QMUL and a Director BAYES-
8 998,950 45 67 449,528 15 82 549,423 15 KNOWLEDGE
of Agena Ltd.
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Contributors networks
10 998,651 80 120 798,921 15 30 199,730 15 Book: Risk
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13 998,201 98.5 147 983,228 15 2 14,973 15 Bayesian nets to
predict football
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Probability:
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and Puzzles
16 997,752 98.9 148 986,777 15 2 10,975 15
Risk Assessment
and Decision
17 997,603 99 148 987,627 15 1 9,976 15
Analysis at Queen
Mary
18 997,453 99.1 148 988,476 15 1 8,977 15

19 997,303 99.2 148 989,325 15 1 7,978 15

Blog Archive
20 997,154 99.3 149 990,174 15 1 6,980 15
▼ 
2021
(25)
▼ 

  ▼ 
November
(1)
▼ 

Is vaccine
Now suppose there is a one-week
delay in the reporting of deaths. Such delays are routine in statistical efficacy a
reporting of mortality and vaccine data. Then the data reported by the
authorities is different from reality, here statistical
illusion?
shown in Table 2, which is the same
as Table 1 but where the death totals are simply ‘shifted’ down one week.
► 
October
(2)
► 

Table 2 Death reporting delayed by one

week
► 
September
(3)
► 

  Vaccinated Unvaccinated ► 
August
(3)
► 

Cumulative Deaths Population Mortality rate Deaths Population Mortality rate ► 

June
(4)
► 

Percentage
► 
May
(1)
► 

Week Population vaccinated

► 
April
(3)
► 

1 1,000,000 0.5 - 5,000 - - 995,000 -

► 
March
(2)
► 

https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vaccine-efficacy-statistical-illusion.html 1/6
16/11/21, 02:00 Probability and Risk: Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?
2 999,850 1 1 9,999 7.50 149 989,852 15.08 ► 
February
(5)
► 

3 999,700 2 1 19,994 7.50 148 979,706 15.16 ► 

January
(1)
► 

4 999,550 4 3 39,982 7.50 147 959,568 15.31 ► 

2020
(39)
► 

► 
2019
(22)
► 

5 999,400 7 6 69,958 8.57 144 929,442 15.49

► 
2018
(30)
► 

6 999,250 14 10 139,895 7.50 139 859,355 16.22

► 
2017
(9)
► 

7 999,100 28 21 279,748 7.50 129 719,352 17.92 ► 

2016
(15)
► 

8 998,950 45 42 449,528 9.33 108 549,423 19.64 ► 

2015
(22)
► 

► 
2014
(9)
► 

9 998,801 65 67 649,220 10.39 82 349,580 23.57

► 
2013
(7)
► 

10 998,651 80 97 798,921 12.19 52 199,730 26.25 ► 

2012
(8)
► 

11 998,501 93 120 928,606 12.91 30 69,895 42.86 ► 

2011
(11)
► 

12 998,351 98 139 978,384 14.24 10 19,967 52.51

13 998,201 98.5 147 983,228 14.93 3 14,973 20.00

14 998,052 98.6 147 984,079 14.99 2 13,973 16.07

15 997,902 98.7 148 984,929 14.99 2 12,973 16.16

16 997,752 98.9 148 986,777 14.97 2 10,975 17.73

17 997,603 99 148 987,627 14.99 2 9,976 16.50

18 997,453 99.1 148 988,476 14.99 1 8,977 16.67

19 997,303 99.2 148 989,325 14.99 1 7,978 16.88

20 997,154 99.3 148 990,174 14.99 1 6,980 17.15

 (Update) Here's a 60-second video showing how to this is done in Excel and proving there are no tricks
involved other than simply shifting the deaths down by one week:

Suppose we want to examine and

compare the mortality rates of the unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts
based on
the data in Table 2. Figure 1 shows this comparison, and we can see that the
mortality rate is
consistently lower for the vaccinated than that for the unvaccinated
throughout the roll out of the vaccination
programme and it reduces as soon as vaccination
nears population saturation at close to 100%.

Figure 1
Reported weekly mortality rates vaccinated against unvaccinated

We might conclude that those who

remain unvaccinated look to be suffering much higher levels of mortality
than
the vaccinated. The reporting delay therefore creates a completely artificial
impression that the vaccine
must be highly effective.  In fact, it looks like a magic ‘cure all’
wonder drug!

https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vaccine-efficacy-statistical-illusion.html 2/6
16/11/21, 02:00 Probability and Risk: Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?
The fact that the mortality rate
of the unvaccinated peaks when the percentage of those vaccinated peaks
should
ring some alarm bells that something strange is going on (unless there is independent
evidence that the
virus was peaking at the same time).

 
ONS data on Covid-19 Vaccination
While the placebo vaccine example
was purely hypothetical, Figure 2 shows the vaccinated against
unvaccinated mortality
using the data in the latest ONS report mortality in England by Covid-19
vaccination
status (weeks 1 to 38)[1],
complemented by NIMS vaccination survey data (up to week 27 only). Here we show
other-than covid mortality to remove the virus signal.

Figure
2
Reported weekly other-than covid mortality rates for vaccinated versus
unvaccinated for 60-69 age group for weeks 1-38 2021

Note that we see the same

features as the shifted graph in Figure 1. In other words, a perfectly
reasonable
explanation for what is observed here could be that there is no
difference in mortality rates between vaccinated
and unvaccinated and the mortality
differences are simply a result of a delay in death reporting. Moreover,
given
we have removed covid deaths (which were only a small percentage of all-cause
deaths in the reported
data) we get a near identical result for non-covid
mortality to that which would result if the vaccine were a
placebo! Thus, we
appear to have created a statistical illusion of vaccine efficacy.

If this is not a statistical

illusion how is it possible that the unvaccinated are dying from non-covid
causes at a
higher rate than vaccinated? Also how is it possible that, at the
time vaccination rates are ramped up to nearly
100% of the population, the
nonvaccinated are dying from non-covid deaths at almost twice the rate of those
who are vaccinated?

These same patterns are also observable

in the 70-79 and 80+ age groups (with the mortality peaks for the
unvaccinated
appearing at different weeks because these age groups received vaccinations
earlier). This
strongly suggests that what we are observing is a genuine statistical
illusion unexplainable by any real impact
of the vaccine on mortality rates. There
could, of course, be reasons other than just delays in death reporting or
misclassification.
For example, any systematic underestimation of the actual proportion who remain
unvaccinated would lead to a higher mortality rate for unvaccinated higher than
that for the vaccinated, even if
the mortality rates were equal in each
category.

 
Consider a deadly placebo
It is also important to note that
even if the actual mortality rate for the vaccinated was higher than that of
the
unvaccinated, where the vaccine was causing death, as a side effect, we
would still likely observe the same
illusion.

To see this effect let’s revisit

our placebo vaccine example and make a small change to Table 1 where instead
of
a mortality rate of 15 per 100k for the vaccinated, suppose it is 17 per 100k
(a rise in mortality of
approximately 13%). So, the placebo vaccine is killing two
more people per 100k and gives no mortality benefit
otherwise. In this scenario
the reported mortality rate for the ‘deadly placebo’ is compared to the first
‘placebo’
scenario, in Figure 3. Even here we see the illusion that the mortality
rate for the vaccinated is lower than
unvaccinated. Both scenarios are the
opposite of reality, and both look interchangeable. This means the
chance of
picking up a vaccine side effect signal is close to impossible and instead the
illusion is created of
vaccine efficacy.

https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vaccine-efficacy-statistical-illusion.html 3/6
16/11/21, 02:00 Probability and Risk: Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?

Figure
3
Reported weekly mortality rates vaccinated against unvaccinated for ‘placebo’
scenario and ‘deadly placebo’ scenarios

 
The illusion of declining vaccine efficacy
Finally, it is important to note
that the same statistical illusion applies to all measures of vaccine efficacy
whether
they be cases, hospitalizations, or deaths. In fact, replacing the number of
deaths in Table 1 with
number of cases, with a one week reporting delay, would
result in vaccine efficacy rates as shown in Figure 4.

Figure
4
Reported vaccine efficacy rates equivalent for placebo vaccine

This occurs when the actual placebo

vaccine efficacy for cases is zero.

This reporting bias is one type

of bias that might be called ‘reporting lag censoring’, a phenomenon whereby
structural
or process factors systematically interfere with when data is handled and
reported with the
consequential effect that it is then misinterpreted, leading
to false conclusions.

[1]
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvol
vingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand24september2021

at
13:23

Labels:
COVID,
risk assessment

18 comments:

Duncan Cragg 14 November 2021 at 14:55

Can you reverse this effect in the ONS data somehow, knowing how you modelled it?

Reply

N23 14 November 2021 at 18:02

How the hell do you even notice something like this?

Reply

David 14 November 2021 at 19:56

Great piece by the way and (as a teacher myself), I love the combination of the original model being simple
enough that a high school student could build it with spreadsheet software, yet the final conclusion being rather
profound. Look how easily you could be fooled.

Reply

Replies

gazooks 15 November 2021 at 03:44

https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vaccine-efficacy-statistical-illusion.html 4/6
16/11/21, 02:00 Probability and Risk: Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?
..look how easily we are fooled.

Reply

FR 14 November 2021 at 22:46

Same question as Duncan Cragg: if your explanation is correct then you should be able to cancel the illusion by
shifting mortality data backwards in time... did you try it?

Reply

Anonymous 14 November 2021 at 22:55

Can you show what the curves would look like for an effective vaccine with reporting delay, for comparison?

Reply

Replies

Anonymous 15 November 2021 at 11:20

I tried this on spreadsheets I created. It is possible that I did something incorrect but my first model
matched the one presented here so I think I am doing it right. Then I did one with a 13 per 100K
mortality rate for vaccinated and retained the posited 15 per 100K death rate for unvaccinated -
presuming that to be a baseline. I found essentially the exact same shapes and magnitudes of the
curves in the graphs and with only some very slight shifting. Intriguing.

Reply

Anonymous 15 November 2021 at 00:19

Isn't the use of 'Efficacy' for description of outcomes within lab conditions and the use of the word 'Effectiveness'
for discussion of reaults in the real world?

Reply

Anonymous 15 November 2021 at 01:45

Even worse if you consider that many vaccine deaths appear to have been recorded as "unvaccinated."

Reply

Anonymous 15 November 2021 at 03:46

Yes and it would be good to label correctly the people who are in their first 14 or 21 days post-vac (i.e. in the vac
group, just not seeing any benefit yet).

By the way, if we're all worried about Big Brother, could this blog transfer from G***** to another platform?
Censorship is rife after all and led by G*****.

Reply

Anonymous 15 November 2021 at 03:58

How is unvaccinated being defined? Is it people who have had no shots, or does it include those who have had
one shot or are less than 21 days after their second shot?

Reply

Replies

Nrvr 15 November 2021 at 14:38

in this simulation im pretty sure unvaccinated were completely unvaccinated and vaccinated had 1+

Reply

Tim Thorpe 15 November 2021 at 09:32

Thank you for your analysis.

Just to make sure we pin all the tails on the right donkeys:

Where you discuss the deadly placebo and the inability to pick up a 13% excess mortality, the delay effect clearly
makes this difficult while the vax/unvax ratio is changing, but I'd expect it to become obvious once things had
asymptotically settled. It appears not to in your examples, but I thnk this is an effect of rounding errors not the
delay. If figures were given per million, you would see it clearly by week 12?

Reply

Replies

Maggie Zhou PhD 15 November 2021 at 11:37

That's exactly what was seen in the >21 after 1st dose group by ONS data, which a previous blog
(Sep 21) discussed. And the rush to roll out boosters is precisely to cover up the slowly revealing
truth, to keep the illusion going.

The newly released dataset needs the same analysis as that Sep blog! I could already see that the
same higher mortality in the >21 after 1st dose group continued just like in the earlier dataset. This
new dataset additionally provided the age-stratified mortality, so it's much better.

Reply

https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/11/is-vaccine-efficacy-statistical-illusion.html 5/6
16/11/21, 02:00 Probability and Risk: Is vaccine efficacy a statistical illusion?

John Day 15 November 2021 at 10:06

Just saying that more people are vaccinated, than actually are vaccinated hides a multitude of vaccine sins.

Listing deaths as "unvaccinated" by default, unless full evidence of full vaccination is in-hand, as is the case at
most hospitals, makes vaccineslook good, even if there is ADE at work after 6 months, and they are predisposing
to infection and death.

This exercise is most instructive.

Thank You! John Day MD, COVID-19 treating physician, until fired for mandatory vaccination refusal

www.johndayblog.com

Reply

LA_Bob 15 November 2021 at 12:01

This is encouraging if it is noticed, correctable, and corrected. It is discouraging if it is not corrected, whether
because it isn't noticed, deliberately ignored, or not correctable because the reporting issues make it impossible
to correct correctly.

I suspect we live in the latter world and thus have no idea what's really going on.

Reply

Anonymous 15 November 2021 at 15:38

It seems to be the case here: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/22/health/covid-vaccines-death-rates/index.html

Reply

Maggie Zhou PhD 15 November 2021 at 15:57

I checked the dataset from the latest ONS release (Nov 1), which said they were using date of death, not date of
registration of death, so perhaps their trick was not achieved by a delay in death reporting, but by the other
equivalent option, i.e., inflating reported vaccine rollout speed, since the vaccinated population estimates at any
timepoint was based on the weekly announced vaccinations - see Table 7, Notes 3,4 in link below - which many
had suspected were inflated.)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsbyvacc
inationstatusengland

Bill Gates told us in the summer of 2020, that he enjoys reading a book titled "HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS".
Like with everything they do to us, it's all in plain sight if we pay attention. Starts at 0:45 mark.

https://www.facebook.com/catcrosby.idealist.dreamer/videos/993764841059908/

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