Economic Recovery

After almost two years the economy of some countries has fallen due to the Covid-19 which has
killed various sectors so this time the good news comes from Indonesia the Indonesian
economy is slowly recovering following the partial reopening of the domestic and global
economies. Indonesia and the global economy were severely affected during the second
quarter of this year by mobility restrictions and other public health measures introduced to
contain the COVID-19 pandemic. Global economic growth and trade picked up during the third
quarter as countries reopened partially and deployed unprecedented policy support to fight the
pandemic-induced recession. Indonesia’s economy also appears to be slowly recovering
(growth contracted by 3.5 percent yoy in the third quarter against a 5.3 percent yoy contraction
in the second quarter) driven by a partial recovery in consumption – including a significant
increase in public spending – investment and net exports. But the impact of the crisis is lingering
with domestic demand still significantly weaker than before the crisis (2.8 percent below its 2019
level as of September)

risks to the outlook are severely skewed to the downside due to the uncertainty associated with
the future path of the pandemic, the depth of the crisis and its scars, and potential adverse trade
and commodity price developments: • The future path of the pandemic: a surge of new cases
could trigger a tightening of mobility restrictions or greater individual precautionary behavior and
social distancing. Similarly, a resurgence of cases in advanced and EMEs could weaken global
growth, trade and investment flows.

The unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic has harmed not only human health but also economic
health as countries around the world apply massive restrictions. Travel restrictions and social
distancing measures are globally applied and affect business activities in nearly all economic
sectors. The list of selected countries and regions. Using the RunGTAP interface, the simulation
illustrates the shocks that the pandemic injected into the economy. Those shocks are as follows:
Change in international trade volume As massive activity restrictions are applied all over the
world, global demand is also significantly decreased. At the same time, the implementation of
social distancing slashed domestic demand. Hence, total production has declined. The number
of exports and imports have decreased due to the massive reduction in production activity. In
the GTAP database, this global international trade volume disruption is illustrated by the
increase in international trade costs for all countries around the world. • Change in tourism
activity As the COVID-19 pandemic pushes countries to restrict travel in-and-out of their
borders, disruption in tourism activity is inevitable. We illustrate the decreased demand for
tourism activity as the final demand shock on the sectors related to tourism activities, such as
accommodation and air transport services. • Change in unemployment Another shock we
employ is a decrease in the number of employees. As global demand decreases, massive lay-
offs and decreased work hours are inevitable. The shock of higher unemployment is illustrated
by each country’s projection of higher unemployment rates due to the COVID-19 pandemic. •
Change in labor productivity due to social distancing Limited labor mobility during social
distancing is expected to decrease workers’ productivity. This shock is imposed to the
simulation by assuming that productivity in all countries is lower with various magnitudes aligned
with Google mobility data across sectors in each country. The CGE-GTAP model simulation
results show that the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic produce a decline in GDP across all
countries in the study., we see that each country’s GDP contracted by approximately 5.0% to
9.0% of the baseline, or “business as usual” (BAU), condition due to the COVID-19 5 pandemic.

From the considerations above, I think it is necessary for youth to intervene in

helping to overcome economic problems because later it will be he who will
participate in economic recovery, cooperation and exchange of ideas and knowledge
of youth between nations to open up more open thinking insights to sudden changes.