Human Capital, Exports, and Economic Growth:

A Causality Analysis for Pakistan, 1975-2005

Arshad Hasan, Ph.D. Scholar, Mohammad Ali Jinnah University, Islamabad
Muhammad Shoaib Abdullah, Ph.D. Scholar, International Islamic University, Islamabad

ABSTRACT

Human capital and exports play a vital role in the economic growth of a country. This article examines the
causal relationship between human capital, export, and economic growth using data for Pakistan from 1975 to 2005.
Results of multivariate cointegration analysis indicate the presence of at least one cointegrating equation. Bivariate
Cointegration analysis discovers the long term relation ship between export and economic growth. Granger causality
test also confirms the presence of unidirectional causality between exports and GDP. It is also found that in the long
run there exists a unidirectional Granger causality between human capital and GDP. However no relationship is
found in human capital and exports. Therefore, government should concentrate on developing human resource
which will serve as engine for economic growth and prosperity.

Key words: Human capital, Exports, Economic Growth, cointegration, causality

JEL classification C13, C22, C51, O15, O53

1. INTRODUCTION

Role of human capital in determining the level and growth of GDP per capita has been emphasized during
last few decades. Various theoretical models include human capital as a factor of production and assess the
accumulation of human capital as an element of the growth process. But most of the work is mainly theoretical and
focuses on different growth model specifications and their associated economic properties.. Economic theory
suggests that human capital would be an important determinant of growth, and empirical evidence for a broad group
of countries confirms this linkage.

Macroeconomic models incorporate human capital into growth specifications either through extensions of
the Solow neoclassical growth model (Solow, 1957) or through endogenous growth equations, as developed by
Romer (1986), Lucas (1988) and others. A current application of such a model is shown in the associated study by
Izushi and Huggins (2003). Fundamentally, neoclassical models imply that a one-off increasein the stock of human
capital leads to an associated one-off increase in productivity growth, whereas endogenous growth models suggest
that the same one-off increase in human capital can lead to a permanent increase in productivity growth. Most
studies which have examined the relationship between economic growth and human capital accumulation have used
either a growth accounting framework (Baumol, 1986; Barro, 1991; Barro and Lee, 1993) or endogenous growth
model (Lucas, 1988; Romer, 1990; Grossman and Helpman, 1991). The growth accounting framework posits that
education, through increasing the human capital stock of individuals, improves their productivity and therefore
contributes to growth. The endogenous growth models of Romer et al. (1990) assume that the creation of new ideas
is a direct function of human capital, which is manifest in the form of scientific knowledge. Therefore investment in
human capital causes growth in physical capital and this, in turn, results in economic growth.

Section 2 of study provides a brief Review of literature. It not only discusses the work done in the
developed world but also focuses on research done in developing countries. Section 3 deals with methodological
issues. It provides information regarding data used in study. Methodology used to test Cointegration of economic
growth, human capital, total trade and external debt has been explained in detail. Section 5 consists of the results of
the study and related discussion. Finally recommendations and policy implications of study are presented.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

There are number of studies that examine the correlation between economic growth and human capital and
trade. These studies are based on endogenous human capital based economic growth and export led economic
growth hypothesis. Now we take a brief overview of these.

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 Barro (1991), Benhabib and Spiegel (1994), and Barro and Lee (1993) among others find that growth and
schooling are positively correlated across countries. Literature on economic growth models explores directly the
quantitative relationship between investments in education and training and the level and growth of per capita GDP.
These studies use various model that include classical growth models , endogenous growth models. However, there
are few studies which examine the relationship between economic growth and human capital formation within a
causal framework. Some studies which test for causality between human capital and growth within a bivariate
framework are De Meulemeester and Rochat (1995), In and Doucouliagos (1997), and Asteriou and
Agiomirgianakis (2001). These studies have mixed results.

De Meulemeester and Rochat (1995) shed light on the relationship between higher education and economic
development by means of econometric tools designed to evaluate the existence and direction of causality. They use
cointegration and Granger-causality tests to find the the long term relationship and direction of causality between
higher education enrollments and economic growth in six countries: Sweden , United Kingdom , Japan , France ,
Italy and Australia. Their findings suggest unidirectional short-run Granger causality running from higher education
enrollments to economic growth in Sweden, the United Kingdom, Japan and France and neutrality between higher
education enrollments and economic growth in Australia and Italy. Results also suggest that this relationship is
indeed not mechanistic as already pointed out by some social scientists In and Doucouliagos (1997) examine the
causal relationship between economic growth and human capital formation using U.S. annual data for 1949 to 1984
and find string evidence of bi-directional causality. Asteriou and Agiomirgianakis (2001) consider the causal
relationship between economic growth and human capital formation using annual data for Greece from 1960 to 1994
and generally reach the same conclusions as In and Doucouliagos (1997).

Narayan and Smyth (2004) explore the causal relationship between human capital and real income using
data for China from 1960 to 1999.Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are used to test the
unit root. The results indicate that the variables are integrated of order one or I(1). Zivot and Andrews (1992) test ,
crash model and crash cum growth ,is also performed to test the stationarity in the presence of a structural break in
the trend.. Johansen (1988) approach is used to test the cointegration between real income and human capital stock.
Maximum eigenvalue test and the trace test show that there is one cointegrating vector between real income and
human capital. As Johansen (1988) test does not take into account the effect of a structural break on the long-run
relationship between real income and human capital. Therefore, Gregory and Hansen (1996) test for cointegration
which incorporates a structural break into the cointegrating vector is also used. It also confirms the existence of a
long-run relationship between real income and human capital. The Granger causality test suggests that in the long
run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from the accumulation of human capital to real income, while
in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from real income to human capital This supports
the existence of a long-run relationship between real income and human capital and provide strong support for the
hypothesis that schooling is driving growth. The results suggest that human capital accumulation has been important
in explaining real income in the long run, while there are feedback effects from real income to human capital
formation in the short run. Sianesi and Van Reenen (2000) have identified possible problems of reverse causality
(i.e. growth stimulates education and training) in the links between investment in human capital and economic
growth. As per capita income increases, so educational inputs, both in terms of quantity and quality, also grow, but it
is not obvious that this economic growth is caused by the rising educational standards. Income growth is likely to
induce a higher demand for education and training and much of this demand will be income elastic. In countries
experiencing significant economic growth, governments are more able to increase public spending on education and
training, and to ensure better access to such education for more of the population.. Sianesi and Van Reenen (2000)
maintain that the most plausible answer to the causality problem is that both processes are at work simultaneously,
so that there is a bi-directional causality between investment in human capital and economic growth. Such
considerations suggest that growth models ideally should recognize the endogenous nature of human capital and
control for the simultaneity bias. A review of international literature on the demand for higher education shows that
one of the key determinants is real income per capita (Briscoe and Wilson, 1998)

Further, the export-led hypothesis postulates that export expansion leads to economic growth through
better allocation of resource and improving production efficiency. This is possible as a result of capital formation,
technological development and employment creation which are by product of exports(Ahmad, 2001). Many
empirical studies examine the relationship between exports and growth using either correlation or causality
techniques. The empirical evidence on the export-growth nexus is mixed with no clear consensus. However, Ahmad
(2001) who reviews approximately 40 studies from the 1970s to the 1990s concludes that empirical support for the

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export-led growth in developing and developed countries is considerably weaker in more recent studies which have
used cointegration and causality testing, compared with earlier correlation based studies. Chuang, Yih-chyi (2000)
uses Cointegration and error-correction representation methodology to test the causal relationship among human
capital accumulation, exports, and economic growth using data pertaining to Taiwan's real GDP, real exports, and
higher education attainment over the period 1952-95. He discovers that investments in human capital account for
nearly half of Taiwan's remarkable growth in manufacturing production in recent decades. This study also finds that
the social rate of return to investment in education among those working in Taiwanese manufacturing was 29% per
year, of which 7% was the private rate of return and the other 22% represented knowledge spillover effects. Results
reveal that human capital accumulation fosters growth and stimulates exports, while exports promote long-run
growth by accelerating the process of human capital accumulation. Taiwan's case study thus supports the human
capital-based endogenous growth theory and the export-led growth hypothesis.

Paudel and Shrestha (2006) explore the role of external debt, total trade and labour force in the economic growth
in Nepal in an integrated way using the data for 1970-2003. GDP is employed as proxy of economic growth. It is used as
dependent variable. Total trade, external debt and labor force are independent variables. Unit root test is conducted to
check the stationarity of data series and results show that Ln GDP and Ln(Labor Force) are non stationary whereas Ln
(External Debt) and Ln( Total Trade) are stationary. The dependent variable under goes a structural change in 1983. Due
to mix of stationary and stationary data, OLS based ARDL approach suggested by Pesaran is used for Cointegration. The
result show that total trade is associated positively with economic growth but there is no significant relationship between
external debt and the economic growth. He concludes that external debt has not been utilized properly so as to make it
contributor to economic growth in Nepal. The results also do not support to assertion that labour force contribute to
economic growth positively. Narayan and Smyth (2004) employs cointegration and error-correction modeling to test the
causal relationship between real income, exports and human capital stock using data for China over the period 1960 to
1999. He examines the human capital-based endogenous growth theory and export-led growth hypotheses using causality
testing within a multivariate cointegration and error-correction framework for China. He also uses bounds testing approach
to cointegration, within an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) framework, developed by Pesaran. Parameter stability
is also confirmed by using Pesaran (1997) and the Hansen (1992) suite of tests. Variables used in the study were real
exports , real GDP and an index of human capital for the period 1960-1999. The human capital index constructed by
Wang and Yao (2003) by using the perpetual inventory method is used. A three-stage procedure is followed to test the
direction of causality. In the first stage the order of integration is tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and
Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests. The ADF and PP statistics for the levels of real income, real exports and human capital
revealed that these variables are integrated of order one. In the second stage the existence of a long-run equilibrium
relationship between real exports, real income and human capital is examined within a multivariate framework by using
bounds testing approach to Cointegration. In the third stage Granger causality tests augmented with a lagged error-
correction term are performed. The results of the cointegration and causality testing showed that real exports, human
capital and real income are cointegrated when real exports is the dependent variable, but are not cointegrated when human
capital or real income are the dependent variable. In the long run both human capital and real income Granger cause real
exports. In the short-run there is bi-directional Granger causality between human capital and real exports, unidirectional
Granger causality running from real income to human capital and neutrality between real exports and real income. The
results do not support the export-led hypothesis. The results indicate that in the long-run China’s exceptional economic
performance was not propelled by export expansion with, instead, causality running from human capital stock and real
income to real exports. Short-run results were consistent with the hypothesis that real exports have contributed to human
capital formation and vice-versa, but because there is no causation running from human capital to real income. Khan and
Fazal (1991) uses the granger causality test to estimate cause and effect relationships between literacy and labor
productivity in Pakistani manufacturing and agricultural sectors and find that despite data set limitations, literacy appears
to "cause" labor productivity to increase in the manufacturing sector. These studies examine the relationship for
developed countries. A little work is available for developing countries such as Pakistan that have considered the causal
relationship between exports and economic growth.. This article contributes to the existing literature by employing
cointegration and error-correction modeling to test the causal relationship between human capital stock and export, debt
and economic growth using annual data for Pakistan from 1975 to 2005.

3. DATA DESCRIPTION AND METHODOLOGY

3.1 Data Description

The data used in this article are exports (GDP) (Yt) and an index of human capital HC for the period 1975-
2005 Ln GDP is used as proxy of economic growth. GDP is used in constant prices for 2000. Exports are also at
constant prices of 2000. Human capital has been calculated by using the following formula.
H = L x exp(S x E)

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where, L is the total labor force between the ages 15-64, S is the return to education, and E is the average stock of
education in the economy, proxied by average number of school years per worker.

3.2 Methodology
A three-stage procedure is followed to test the direction of causality. In the first stage, unit root tests
proposed by Phillips (1987) and Perron (1988) and Augmented Dickey-Fuller proposed by Dickey and Fuller (1979)
is used .to test the stationarity of data. The second stage involves testing for the existence of a long-run equilibrium
relationship between real exports, real income and human capital and economic growth by using Johansen and
Juselius Test. within a multivariate framework and third stage involves detecting Granger causality.

Unit root tests are used to test that financial time series is non - stationary which is a necessary condition
for a random walk. Two different tests are used to test the null hypothesis of a unit root;(i)Augmented Dickey-Fuller
Test , and (ii)Phillips-Perron Test.

The Augumented Dickey-Fuller test tests whether a unit root is present in an autoregressive model. A
simple AR(1) model is yt = ρyt − 1 + ut, where yt is the variable of interest, t is the time index, ρ is a coefficient, and
ut is the error term. The regression model can be written as ∆yt = (ρ − 1)yt − 1 + ut = δyt − 1 + ut, where ∆ is the first
difference operator. This model can be estimated and testing for a unit root is equivalent to testing. δ = 0. The
augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) statistic, used in the test, is a negative number. The more negative it is, the stronger
the rejection of the hypothesis that there is a unit root at given level of confidence. The distribution theory
supporting the Dickey-Fuller tests assumes that the errors are statistically independent and have a constant variance.
This may not be the case with some of the data used here. Fortunately, an alternative test, the Phillip-Perron test,
allows the error disturbances to be weakly dependent and heterogeneously distributed.
yt= αo + α1 yt-1 + αt {t- T/2} + ut
Test statistics for the regression coefficients under the null hypothesis that the data are

generated by yt = yt-1 + ut , where E(ut) = 0.

To test for cointegration among human capital stock, trade and debt and economic growth we first use the
Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) approach. There are two Johansen cointegration tests. First, the
maximum likelihood estimation procedure provides a likelihood ratio test, called a trace test, which evaluates the null
hypothesis of at most r cointegrating vectors versus the general null of p cointegrating vectors. The second likelihood ratio
test is the maximum eigen value test, which evaluates the null hypothesis of r cointegrating vectors against the alternative
of r + 1 cointegrating vectors. The reported statistics are for the case where the data generating process has no linear trend
but allows a constant term to be confined to the cointegrating relations, although the result is robust to alternative
specification of the deterministic variables. We use the AIC to determine the lag length. Because we have annual data, we
set the maximum number of lags equal to 2. Johansen (1988), and Johansen and Juselius (1990) apply the maximum
likelihood procedure to determine the presence of cointegrating vectors in a set of non stationary time series. The null
hypothesis is that there is no cointegration among the series. If the system of financial time series is to return to the long-
run equilibrium, the movement of at least some variables must respond to the magnitude of the disequilibria (error-
correction). To test multivariate cointegration, the approach used is Vector Autoregressive (VAR). This assumes all the
variables in the model are endogenous. If Johnston and Juselius test of co-integration confirms that both the time series are
co-integrated in the long run, then the system of equations should be modified by inserting an Error Correction Term to
account for the short-run divergence of prices from their respective equilibrium values. Granger (1986, 1988) states that if
two variables are cointegrated then Granger-causality must exist in at least one direction, which is a consequence of the
relationships described by the error-correction model. Since the variables may share common stochastic trends, then the
dependent variables in the VECM must be Granger-caused by lagged values of the error-correction terms which
themselves are functions of the lagged values of the level variables. Hence, the temporal Granger-causality between the
variables can be investigated by applying a joint F-test to the coefficients of each explanatory variable in the VECM.
Therefore we consider that a variable Granger-causes the other if it helps predict its future values.

4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

4.1 Unit Root Tests

We first tested for unit roots using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests. The
results are reported in Table 1.

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 Results of Unit Root Test
ADF-level ADF-Ist Diff PP-level PP-Ist Diff
Ln GDP 0.2578 -5.6013 0.5908 -5.9815
Ln Export -0.9266 -5.9418 -1.0050 -6.2125
HC 1.5043 -3.7662 2.8500 -3.5145

Critical. Value 5% -2.9640 -2.9678 -2.9640 -2.9678

The ADF and PP statistics for the levels of economic growth, export and human capital do not exceed the
critical values (in absolute terms). However, when we take the first difference of each of the variables, the ADF and
PP statistics are higher than the respective critical values (in absolute terms). Therefore, the ADF and PP tests
suggest that the variables are integrated of order one or I(1). As time series is integrated of same order so
Cointegration analysis can be performed.

4.2 Cointegration analysis

Table 2 reports the results of multivariate Cointegration analysis.
Table 2 Results of Multivariate Cointegration Analysis
Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigen value Trace Statistic Critical Value 5%

None 0.473921 31.73706 29.79707

At most 1 0.249633 13.75253 15.49471
At most 2 0.184512 5.71113 3.841466

Trace test indicates 1 co integrating equation at the 0.05 level

We also tested bivariate Cointegration among the variable of interest. Table 3 shows the results of bivarate analysis
Table 3 Results of Bivariate Cointegration Analysis
Hypothesized No. of CE(s) Eigen value Trace Statistic Critical Value 5%
Economic Growth and Export
None 0.4341 16.49136 15.49471
At most 1 0.040606 1.119236 3.841466
Export and Human capital
None 0.327812 11.2237 15.49471
At most 1 0.018305 0.498827 3.841466
Economic Growth and Human capital
None 0.29376 11.24439 15.49471
At most 1 0.066355 1.853804 3.841466

Above table indicates a Cointegration between export and economic growth whereas no Cointegration is
found in economic growth and human capital and export and human capital. The result support the export led
hypothesis of economic growth which is in line with the historical evidence about the phenomenal growth of far
eastern countries. Similarly low levels of average schooling, low returns to education, which are basis of human
capital, indicate that Pakistan could not get the benefit of its immense human resource in past.

4.3 Granger Causality

The existence of a cointegrating relationship among economic growth, export and human capital suggests
that there must be Granger causality in at least one direction. Table 4 reports the results of granger causality within
the error-correction mechanism (ECM).
Table 4 Results Granger Causality
Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability

Ln Export does not Granger Cause ln GDP 30 0.8893 0.3540

Ln GDP does not Granger Cause Export 3.5555 0.0401

HC does not Granger Cause ln GDP 30 1.8328 0.1870

ln GDP does not Granger Cause HC 4.2298 0.0495

HC does not Granger Cause ln Export 30 1.5378 0.2256

ln Export does not Granger Cause HC 0.0836 0.7747

Results indicate the existence of unidirectional granger causality between human capital and economic
growth and exports and economic growth

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 5. CONCLUSION

Human capital and exports play a vital role in the economic growth of a country. Human capital is one of
the most important factors of production and serves as engine of economic growth through innovation, creation and
value addition. Its importance in this competitive world has increased manifold. Therefore, investment in human
capital causes growth in physical capital and this, in turn, results in economic growth. Similarly, export expansion
leads to economic growth through better allocation of resources and improving production efficiency. The
empirical evidence on the export-growth nexus is mixed with no clear consensus. However, it is generally argued
that Human capital accumulation increases the quality of labor, which in turn, enhances the productivity of the
workforce and stimulates further exports and economic growth. Multivariate cointegration analysis indicates the
presence of long term relationship between economic growth, human capital and exports. Bivariate Cointegration
analysis among economic growth, human capital and exports also confirms the existence of long term relation ship
between exports and economic growth. The granger causality analysis also depicts unidirectional causality among
economic growth and human capital. Pakistan is experiencing significant economic growth and government has also
increased public spending on education and is making efforts to ensure better access to quality education. Therefore,
results have economic rationality and are in line with review of international literature on the demand for higher
education. One of the key determinants of demand for higher education is real income per capita. So it is the need of
the time that we should focus on development of our human resources which will ultimately accelerate the pace of
economic development and growth and said growth will help to allocate more funds for education.

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