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Intelligent path loss prediction engine design using machine learning in the
urban outdoor environment

Conference Paper · May 2018

DOI: 10.1117/12.2305204

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 Intelligent Path Loss Prediction Engine Design using Machine
Learning in the Urban Outdoor Environment
RuichenWanga, JingyangLua, YiranXua, Dan Shena, Genshe Chen*a,KhanhPhamb, Erik Blaschc
a
Intelligent Fusion Technology, Inc., 20271 Goldenrod Ln, Germantown, MD, 20876;
b
Air Force Research Lab, Kirtland AFB, NM, 87117;
c
Air Force Office Scientific Research (AFOSR), Arlington, VA22203;

ABSTRACT

Due to the progressive expansion of public mobile networks and the dramatic growth of the number of wireless users in
recent years, researchers are motivated to study the radio propagation in urban environments and develop reliable and fast
path loss prediction models. During last decades, different types of propagation models are developed for urban scenario
path loss predictions such as the Hata model and the COST 231 model. In this paper, the path loss prediction model is
thoroughly investigated using machine learning approaches. Different non-linear feature selection methods are deployed
and investigated to reduce the computational complexity. The simulation results are provided to demonstratethe validity
of the machine learning based path loss prediction engine, which can correctly determine the signal propagation in a
wireless urban setting.
Keywords:Machine Learning, Propagation,Urban Outdoors.

1. INTRODUCTION
As the size of wireless networks and the number of internet users are growing, it is of great importance to offer an
acceptable level of quality of service (QoS) to users in wireless data systems, which significantly relies on the
understanding of how signals attenuate in realistic environments. Over past decades, researchers and engineers have
devoted effort towards developing a myriad of propagation models to predict signal path loss in different environments.
These propagation models can be divided into three classes: empirical, deterministic and semi-deterministic. The empirical
models are based on measurements such as millimeter wave propagation models1,2 and classical models3,4 are developed
to describe the relationship between path loss and environment factors from a statistical point of view. The deterministic
models are based on theoretical derivations by using geometrical theory to calculate the field strength of all kinds of rays
at receiving points, namely, direct, reflected, diffracted and scattered rays5,6. The most basic deterministic model is the 2-
ray model7, which simulates both the direct and ground reflected rays. The semi-deterministic models are a compromise
of empirical models and deterministic models8,9. The empirical models are easy to implement and require less computation
power but usually are environmentally sensitive and less accurate as compared to the deterministic models; while the
deterministic models need more computation power and environment information to perform accurate path loss
predictions. Specifically, for propagation analysis in urban environments, the most commonly used path loss models are
the Hata3,4 and COST 231 models10,11based on previous measurement campaign data. These models may suffer from the
errors due to environment differences. In this paper, we use the Hata and COST 231 model prediction results as a bench
mark and compare them to the proposed path loss prediction engine results to show the improvement and novelty of our
machine learning path loss model.
Machine learning is the most trending technology in recent years. There are many machine learning techniques developed
for different learning tasks, such as decision tree learning, artificial neural networks, deep learning, support vector
machines, reinforcement learning, etc12,13.These machine learning techniques can be classified into three categories:
unsupervised, supervised and semi-supervised machine learning. In this paper, we consider the propagation problem as a
regression problem and thus use supervised machine learning to estimate the parameters in the regression formula. By
using machine learning, the prediction accuracy and computation efficiency is significantly improved as compared to
conventional propagation models. In addition, machine learning (ML) enables feature selection which can learn the
dominant features of complex environments to help better understand the propagation behaviors.

*gchen@intfusiontech.com
Sensors and Systems for Space Applications XI, edited by Khanh D. Pham,
Genshe Chen, Proc. of SPIE Vol. 10641, 106410J · © 2018 SPIE
CCC code: 0277-786X/18/$18 · doi: 10.1117/12.2305204

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 The focus of this paper is to develop a novel path loss prediction engine based on machine learning to perform fast and
reliable propagation calculations in urban environments. In general, the path loss prediction can be considered as a
regression problem where all the known parameters of operating frequency, transmitter and receiver information, and
environment effects are regarded as inputs, and the output is the path loss. All kinds of input data13 come from the
measurements and are further fed into the machine learning based path loss prediction engine. The ML engine will perform
feature selection and data regression on the online informaion and is pre-trained with real data. After the engine processes
the collected information, the output will be the path loss of the points of interest.
This paper is organized as follow. In Section 2, a detailed description of the propagation basics is presented. In Section 3,
the machine learning based prediction engine is described. Section 4 presents the propagation simulation and the evaluation
results for the prediction engine. In Section 5, conclusions are drawn and possible future work areas are discussed.

2. PROPAGATION BASICS
The propagation basics are described in this section. To understand the basic concepts of radio propagation, the inspired
readers may refer to the textbooks14for more detail. For ease of understanding, the bench mark models, Hata and COST
231, are described in this section.

2.1 Signal propagation

Signal propagation methods mainly study how signals behave and interact with the environments during transmission. For
most theoretical studies, the signal transmission process can be viewed as the combination of three parts: the signal’s
generation and modulation at transmitter, the direct signal transmission in the environment, and the signal received by the
receiver and its demodulation process. In fact, the signal paths are more than the line of sight (LOS) path, where the
obstacles in the environment will reflect, diffract or scatter the signals and thus cause attenuations to the received signals
and introduce multi-path effects. The signals arriving at the receiver via paths other than LOS path will have additional
power losses and delayed times, and in some cases when these multipath signals are out of phase, they even interfer with
one another, which makes the propagation analysis much more complicated. The interval of the time delay is called the
delay spread and the resulting attenuation is the multipath fading. When considering the mobile users, the received signal
may also have frequency shift by the Doppler effects.
2.2 Path loss
Once the transmitter is set up, it is assumed that the transmission power 𝑃𝑇𝑋 and the antenna gain at transmitter 𝐺𝑇𝑋 are
determined. At the receiver side, the receiving power 𝑃𝑅𝑋 and the antenna gain 𝐺𝑅𝑋 at the direction of transmitter can be
collected. Then, the path loss term 𝑃𝐿 is simply defined as
𝑃𝐿 = 𝑃𝑇𝑋 + 𝐺𝑇𝑋 + 𝐺𝑅𝑋 − 𝑃𝑅𝑋 (1)
in dB scale. From the view of fading types, the path loss can be written as the sum of three types of fading: free space loss,
slow fading, and small scale fading.
𝑃𝐿 = 𝐿𝐹𝑆 + 𝐿𝑠 + 𝐿𝑠𝑐 (𝑡) (2)
where 𝐿𝐹𝑆 is the free space path loss, 𝐿𝑠 is the slow fading (also called shadowing) caused by large obstacles, and 𝐿𝑠𝑐 (𝑡)
is the small scale fast fading resulting from multipath effects and small scatters, which varies with time, t. For most
propagation models, 𝐿𝑠𝑐 (𝑡) is stochastically computed by empirical distributions such as Rayleigh and m-Nakagami15,
because it is difficult to model the small scale fading effects without perfect knowledge of the environment.
2.3 Hata and COST 231 models
2.4 Hata model
The Hata model is an empirical path loss prediction model valid for frequencies from 150 to 1500 MHz, which is based
on measurements by Okumura4 and proposed by Hata3. The Hata model uses the environment geographical information
to realize the effects of reflected, diffracted, and scattered rays in city areas. The original Hata model was developed for
urban cities, since Okumura’s measurements were conducted around Tokyo, but it can be extended to suburban and rural
environments by applying particular corrections terms3. In this paper, we are only interested in the propagation in urban
areas, and thus the Hata model is expressed as

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 𝑃𝐿𝐻 = 69.55 + 26.16𝑙𝑜𝑔10 𝑓 − 13.82𝑙𝑜𝑔10 ℎ 𝑇𝑋 − 𝐶𝐻 + [44.9 − 6.55𝑙𝑜𝑔10 ℎ 𝑇𝑋 ]𝑙𝑜𝑔10 𝑑 (3)
For medium-sized or small cities,
𝐶𝐻 = 0.8 + (1.1𝑙𝑜𝑔10 𝑓 − 0.7)ℎ𝑅𝑋 − 1.56𝑙𝑜𝑔10 𝑓 (4)
And for large cities,
8.29(𝑙𝑜𝑔10 1.54ℎ𝑅𝑋 )2 − 1.1 , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 150 ≤ 𝑓 ≤ 200
𝐶𝐻 = { (5)
3.2(𝑙𝑜𝑔10 11.75ℎ𝑅𝑋 )2 − 4.97 , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 200 ≤ 𝑓 ≤ 1500
where 𝑃𝐿𝐻 is the Hata model path loss, 𝑓 is the transmitting signal frequency, ℎ 𝑇𝑋 and ℎ𝑅𝑋 are heights of transmitter and
receiver antennas, 𝑑 is the horizontal distance between transmitter and receiver,𝐶𝐻 is the Hata correction factor.
2.5 COST 231 model
The COST 231 model, also known as Walfisch-Ikegami model, is proposed by COST-231, resulting from the combination
of Walfisch-Bertoni16 and Ikegami17 models with some additional empirical corrections. The name derives from the
European forum that developed the model (COopération européenne dans le domaine de la recherche Scientifique et
Technique). It operates in the frequency range of 800 to 2000 MHz. The COST 231 model has different formulas for LOS
propagation and non line of sight (NLOS) propagation. According to the analysis10, it shows very good performance in
urban areas when the transmitter antenna height is lower than the average surrounding building height. In our case, the
transmitter is located strictly lower the building roofs and most of the propagation links can be specified as a LOS link,
where the COST 231 model yields a simple formula as
𝑃𝐿𝐶−𝐿𝑂𝑆 = 42.6 + 26𝑙𝑜𝑔10 𝑑 + 20𝑙𝑜𝑔10 𝑓 (6)
where 𝑃𝐿𝐶−𝐿𝑂𝑆 is the COST 231 model LOS-path loss, 𝑓 is the transmitting signal frequency, and 𝑑 is the horizontal
distance between transmitter and receiver.
In this paper, we use Hata and COST 231 models as bench marks to compare to the path loss ML prediction engine
simulation results to evaluate the proposed method.

3. MACHINE LEARNING BASED PREDICTION ENGINE DESIGN

In this paper, inspired by paper18 which deploys a support vector machine (SVM) in determining the received power
strength without considering the high dimension of the input data, where dimensionality reduction is taken into
consideration. A number of linear dimensionality reduction frameworks have been designed, such as Principal Component
Analysis (PCA), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), and SVM. When a non-linear relation exists between the features
and desired output, each data 𝑥𝑖 is represented in a Euclidean space 𝑥𝑖 ∈ 𝑅𝑑 , where 𝑑 denotes the number of signal
features. 𝑥𝑖 is assumed to be an image of some 𝜃𝑛 in a topological space. Let space Ψ resemble 𝑅𝑟 with 𝑟 ≤ 𝑑. Ψ is known
as a manifold with reduction dimensionality 𝑟.

Figure 1: 2-D manifolds embedded in a 3-Dspace (linear subspace, s-curve, and swiss roll)
Figure 1 illustrates the examples of 2-D manifolds embedded in a 3-D Euclidean space. The objective of manifold learning
is to directly uncover the one-to-one map from 𝑅𝑑 to 𝑅𝑟 . The mapping function preserves the geometric structure of space
𝑅𝑑 . Geometrically, this can be interpreted as uncurling a curved surface into a super-plane. Popular approaches for
manifold learning include locally linear embedding19, IsoMap20, Laplacian eigenmap21, and Maximum variance
unfolding23.These approaches have been successfully applied in the heterogeneous data fusion22,24, in which the non-linear
correlation among multiple sensor reading is taken into consideration. Manifold learning can significantly reduce the

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 computational complexity and resources needed as compared to the traditional data fusion approaches such as compressed
sensing which involves much computation.

Figure 2 shows the dimensionality reduction of the 3-D Swiss roll based on manifold learning. Figure 2displays the results
of several manifold functions, e.g., IsoMap, Locally Linear Embedding (LLE), Hessian LLE, and provides the comparison
results from linear approaches, such as Multidimensional scaling (MDS) and Principle component analysis (PCA). Since
the 2D embedded manifold in Swill Roll is nonlinear, the linear approaches always fail to “uncurl” it. Also, in Figure 2,
we can see that for manifold learning, IsoMap and Hessian LLE can successfully “uncurl” the original data, but LLE
cannot. Hence, based on the computational capability of each edge node, manifold learning can be applied to feature
extraction for the data (such as dynamic spectrum access in path loss analysis).
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Figure 2: Dimensionality Reduction of 3-D Swiss Roll Based on Nonlinear Manifold Learning
With manifold learning approaches; large volume, high dimension data can be reduced for visualization, compression, and
denoising, which makes it easy to achieve the insight into the data set. Besides, the compressed data set is better for the
data storage, model development for prediction, and incorporation of additional information Further details are presented
in [25].

4. SIMULATION RESULTS
All the models considered in this paper are implemented in Python language. The mobile radio wave propagation sensor
reading is conducted at a carrier frequency of 853.71 MHz in the city of Fortaleza-CE, Brazil. Around 8000 measurements
have been performed and the overall power strength can be visualized in Figure 3, in which the color demonstrates the
power strength of each location. Interested readers can refer to paper18 for detail.
The Ground Truth

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 The input features include base transmitter height, base transmitter station latitude, longitude, terrain elevation, antenna
azimuth, and receiver position. Please refer to paper18 for more detail which is not repeated here.

The objective is to find the optimal feature reduction framework to achieve the good received power strength with lower
system computational complexity. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is used to evaluate the selected model prediction
performance, which can be characterized as
𝑁
1 2
𝜇 = √ ∑(𝑦𝑖 − 𝑓(𝒙𝑖 , 𝒘))
𝑁
𝑖

where 𝑁 is the sample size, 𝑦𝑖 is the ground truth of the received power strength, 𝒙𝑖 is the input data, and 𝒘is the weights
achieved from the training process. The overall system flow chart can be seen in Figure 4.
Off -line Training data Real Received Data

[Mapping Matrix Feature

Feature Selection
Il Selection

1
Transformation
Machine Learning
y =XWA +B

Prediction

Learning Performance
Analysis

Machine Learning Diagram

Figure 4: The machine learning flow chart

In this case, 75% of data measurements are used for the model training, and 25% of the data are used to evaluate the trained
model performance regarding RMSE. In order to reduce the computation burden, the number of features can be selected
respectively. In the simulation results, two features are deployed in the received power strength prediction.
t-SNE (24 sec): MSE=0.122dB
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Figure 5: Received power strength prediction using t-SNE

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 We have investigated 8 manifold learning approaches including Locally Linear Embedding (LLE), Local Tangent Space
Alignment(LTSA), Hessian LLE, Modified LLE, Isometric Mapping (IsoMap), Multi-Dimensional Scaling (MDS),
Spectral Embedding, and t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE), among which the t-SNE outperforms the
other approaches with an RMSE 0.122dB. Figure 6 shows the absolute difference between the prediction and ground truth.
The training process takes around 24 seconds.

From Figure 5, we can see most of time the t-SNE based machine learning model can effectively predict the received
signal strength by only using four projected features learned from the original database. Besides, all the other manifold
learning approaches can also be compared in the Table 1 in terms of processing time and prediction accuracy. In Table 1,
the complexity of the LLE is the lowest compared to other approaches, but the accuracy is less. Based on different system
requirements, different approaches can be selected in order to satisfy the performance requirements.
Table 1: Performance comparisn among different manifold learning approaches
Methods Prediction accuracy (dB) Training time (~seconds)
LLE 0.256 𝟏. 𝟔
LTSA 0.267 4.6
Hessian LLE 0.267 2.5
Modified LLE 0.265 2
IsoMap 0.188 6.3
MDS 0.146 91
Spectral Embedding 0.265 19
t-SNE 𝟎. 𝟏𝟐𝟐 25

5. CONCLUSION
In this paper, contemporary path loss prediction models are investigated using manifold learning approaches. Different
feature selection methods are utilized to reduce the computational complexity. The empirical models such as the Hata and
the COST 231 models have been studied and investigated in order to enhance power strength prediction. The simulation
results are provided to demonstrate the validity of the machine learning based path loss prediction engine, which can
effectively determine the signal propagation. Also, from the simulation results, we have found that the t-SNE based
manifold learning approach can achieve the best received signal strength prediction performance. Current efforts include
optimizing the training time, incorporating more features into the model, and applying the method for real-time
applications assessment.

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