Statistika Rekayasa
(Engineering Statistics)
Discrete Probability Distributions
Departemen Teknik Sistem Perkapalan
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember
Marine Engineering Statistika Rekayasa
Course outline
● Random Variables
● Discrete Probability Distributions 0,35
● Expected Value and Variance 0,3
● Binomial Probability Distribution 0,25
● Poisson Probability Distribution
● Hypergeometric Probability Distribution 0,2
0,15
0,1
0,05
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
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Random Variable
● A random variable is a numerical description of the outcome of an experiment.
● The particular numerical value of the random variable depends on the outcome
of the experiment.
● A random variable can be classified as being either discrete or continuous
depending on the numerical values it assumes.
● A discrete random variable may assume either a finite number of values or an
infinite sequence of values, such as 0,1,2,3……
● A continuous random variable may assume any numerical value in an interval or
collection of intervals, for example 0<X<20
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Examples of discrete random variables
Possible Values
Experiment Random Variable (X) for the Random
Variable
Contact five Number of customers 0,1,2,3,4,5
customers who place an order
Discrete random variable
with a finite number of
Inspect Number of defective 1,2,3,…,49,50
shipment of pumps values
50 pumps
Sell an Gender of the customer 0 if male; 1 if
automobile female
Operate a toll Number of cars arriving 1,2,3,….. Discrete random variable
road in a day the tollbooth in a day with an infinite number
Sequence of values
Ferry services Number of passengers 1,2,3,…..
in a day using the ferry services
in a day
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Continuous Random Variables
● A random variable is continuous if it can assume any numerical value in an
interval or collection of intervals
● Experimental outcomes that can be described by continuous random variables:
○ Heights, weights, temperature, etc
○ Waiting times
○ Measurement errors
○ Length of life of a particular equipment
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Examples of Continuous Random Variables
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Discrete vs continous variables
A discrete variable takes, countable values. A continues variables is the result of a
measurement (a floating point number).
Examples:
● Outcome of a coin toss: {head, tail) Example:
● Number of students in the class ● Height of person
● Questionnaire responses {very ● Flow rate in a pipeline
unsatisfied, unsatisfied, satisfied, very ● Volume of oil in a drum
satisfied)
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Discrete Probability Distributions
● The probability distribution for a random variable describes how probabilities
are distributed over the values of the random variable.
● The probability distribution is defined by a probability function, denoted by f(x),
which provides the probability for each value of the random variable.
● The required conditions for f(x):
f(x) > 0
f(x) = 1
● We can describe a discrete probability distribution with a table, graph, or
equation.
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Example
● Probability distribution for the number of automobiles sold during a day at
DicarloMotors
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Example
● Graphical Representation of the Probability Distribution
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Discrete Probability Distribution
● Discrete uniform probability distribution
● Binomial probability distribution
● Poisson probability distribution
11
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Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution
● The discrete uniform probability distribution is the simplest example of a
discrete probability distribution given by a formula.
● The discrete uniform probability function is:
● Note that ALL values of the random variable are equally likely.
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Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution
For example, suppose that for the experiment of rolling a die we define the random
variable x to be the number of dots on the upward face. For this experiment, n = 6
values are possible for the random variable; x =1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Thus, the probability
function for this discrete uniform random variable is
f(x) = 1/6 x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
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Expected Value and Variance
● The expected value, or mean, of a random variable is a measure of its central
location.
● The variance summarizes the variability in the values of a random variable.
● The standard deviation, 𝜎, which is the positive square root of the variance.
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Example
Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable
Calculation of the expected value for the number of automobiles sold during a
day at Dicarlo Motors
The expected value is 1.50 automobiles per day. We
therefore know that although sales of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or
5 automobiles are possible on any one day, over
time DiCarlo can anticipate selling an average of
1.50 automobiles per day.
Assuming 30 days of operation during a month, we
can use the expected value of 1.50 to forecast
average monthly sales of 30(1.50) = 45 automobiles.
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Example
Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random Variable
Calculation of the variance for the number of automobiles sold during a day at
DicarloMotors
The standard deviation is measured
in the same units as the random
variable (σ =1.118 auto-mobiles)
and therefore is often preferred in
describing the variability of a
random variable.
The variance σ2 is measured in
squared units and is thus more
difficult to interpret.
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Binomial Probability Distribution
● Binomial Distribution is one of the most important discrete distributions. It is
associated with a multiple-step experiment called Binomial Experiment.
● Properties of a Binomial Experiment
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trials.
2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible on each trial.
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does not change from trial to
trial. (p is fixed)
4. The trials are independent.
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Binomial Probability Function
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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem
Let us consider the purchase decisions of the next three customers who enter the
Martin Clothing Store. On the basis of past experience, the store manager estimates
the probability that any one customer will make a purchase is 0,30.
What is the probability that two of the next three customers will make a purchase?
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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem
Using Tree
● S to denote success (a purchase) and F to denote failure (no purchase), we are interested in
experimental outcomes involving two successes in the three trials (purchase decisions).
● Checking the four requirements for a binomial experiment, we note that:
○ The experiment can be described as a sequence of three identical trials, one trial for each of
the three customers who will enter the store.
○ Two outcomes – the customer makes a purchase (success) or the customer does not make a
purchase (failure) – are possible for each trial.
○ The probability that the customer will make a purchase (0,30) or will not make a purchase
(0,70) is assumed to be the same for all customers.
○ The purchase decision of each customer is independent of the decisions of the other
customers
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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem
Using Tree Diagram
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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem
Using Tree Diagram
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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem
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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem
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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem
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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem
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Example: Martin Clothing Store Problem
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Example
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Binomial Probability Distribution
● Expected Value
E(x) = 𝜇 = np
● Variance
Var(x) = 𝜎 2 = np(1 - p)
● Standard Deviation
SD( x) = s = np(1 - p)
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Example: Martin Clothing Store problem
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Poisson Probability Distribution
● The Poisson random variable X is used for determining the number of
occurrences of specified event in a particular time interval or space.
● Examples:
○ Number of arrivals at a car wash in one hour
○ Number of machine breakdowns in a day
○ Number of repairs needed in 10 miles of highway
○ Number of leaks in 100 miles of pipeline.
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Poisson Probability Distribution
● Properties of a Poisson Experiment
1. The probability of an occurrence is the same for any two intervals of equal
length.
2. The occurrence or non-occurrence in any interval is independent of the
occurrence or non-occurrence in any other interval.
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Example
● Using the Poisson Probability Function
The average machine breakdowns during their operation is three per week. Find
the probability of exactly one machine breakdown during a week.
𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇 31 𝑒 −3
𝑓(𝑥 ) = 𝑥!
= 1!
= 3𝑒 −3 = 0,1493
Other time interval also can be used. For example, what is exactly one machine
breakdown during two weeks?
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Example
● Using the Table of Poisson Probabilities
The average machine breakdowns during their operation is three per week. Find the
probability of exactly one machine breakdown during a week.
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Example
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Unit consistency in probabilities calculation
● Example:
○ Average machine breakdown during their operation is three per week
○ Average machine breakdown during their operation within two weeks is six
machines
○ Average machine breakdown during their operation within five weeks is
fifteen machines
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Example
Using the Poisson Probability Function
The average machine breakdowns during their operation is three per week. Find
the probability of exactly 10 machines breakdown during five weeks.
𝜇 ! 𝑒 "# 15$%𝑒 "#
𝑓 𝑥 = = = 0.0486
𝑥! 10!
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Example
● Karena kurangnya pengawasan saat penggelaran pipa, diketahui bahwa kejadian
kebocoran pipeline diketahui mengikuti distribusi Poisson dengan rata-rata
adalah 0,7 kebocoran setiap 10 km pipa. Dari informasi tersebut hitunglah:
○ Peluang dalam 20 km pipa terjadi kurang dari 2 kebocoran.
○ Peluang dalam 20 km pipa terjadi lebih dari 2 kebocoran.
○ Peluang dalam 50 km pipa tidak terjadi kebocoran pipa sama sekali.
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References
● Anderson, Sweeney, Williams., Statistics for Business and Economics, 11th
Edition., West Publishing Company, 2011.
● Statistics for Business and Economics., Slides Prepared by John S. Loucks St.
Edward’s University,South-Western/Thompson Learning
