Bex Wey With) Sept Cane (LDSC) ad pr he oa ak be Unies Kington Rose tah ere, une tora peony nner ear Farr tfomiton about the DSC exe eg nd Sing serves as oad ty Soon Seb estos (13780 ‘ine nes Tx O19 6060 Fac 18H7 sana sal etme srs Beck Sore sc An Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering Charles B. Ebeling (aoe BRITISH LSRARY DOCUMENT SUPPLY CENTRE = 2 APR 2008 nea tae (Fidnccraw-vin Boston, Mstsachussts Bur Rie nts ‘bug, one” Madon econ New York New York Sen Francie callomia” 8 Lous, sourMcGraw-Hill A ere ine AN INTRODUCTION 10 RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY ENaINEERING me epi 7 9 Mc api, eA ee: 9 Ua Sten Ee pein a tt Ce ‘Sole ton spc ee ‘ots os eb i eo tae anc ne Lent) 2 May ein ABOUT THE AUTHOR Cares Hing an site poe fxg anaes sd tern inte Slo Easing Verso Dayton meh asi lei ens. He ceed PD. eyes inl els ‘Ohio Ste Unversity in 1973 when are uy te Unicd Ss Ac Fe. ‘as Eltng me» enact! eet er se ne [At fort Hs Al Fons expences munca eke, eat, ‘abi simolaon ding, and manponer planing, Artes ew Theron prance fr DM Canin. ats cy ested {e devlyent as age computerized mabe nominee tin spe prs euiement ere Air ec: north tee me Ae Fee he ws fly meer fethe A Fc Ite ect, wee {au cores it pst st, and operon reach When ati a fe ‘Suber aaj ay mente for Gere Wong Desi een ‘Gt Univers the Cale Willan an Mary Ft tpt es Pa {esr Ebeling hs ah cures nthe erates of Ennis Musee st the Unser of Dann pty andatics oper seh thy "titre smo option ser hey nd pchonenpeerne His resrch eres comely cemr snd 3 maltyear NASA gre develop Feb and maiminabiy eels computer maason mdi, an ele esi odes toe sed Gui he concep dep of pce anaprtin tem Pfc Bing etre caine ss of OhCONTENTS, Co Stare Introduction he Sy of Relay 2 Nei Reston 112 no ‘Coops Tess Detitons ets Scpeatthe eat Basie Reliability Models ‘The Failure Disteibuion “Tee Rly Panton Mn Tine to Fale Bata Care Cena Relabiy Arent 24 Detain of Eqn 28) ‘pene 28. Deron Eau 12) ‘Appenc 2C ‘Cron Rely ad ‘Aen 2D. Ite Caleslatons or The ina Batak Cae Append 28 Tie of egas 2 ie uel 32 One tw3 Constant Failure Rate Mode 31 The spunea Realty Fron SE er ew | 112 Rie 34 Tete renner Espns 25 Rtn Pes 3G Redan) ad the CFR Node 44 TimeDependent Fal re Models ‘The Weal Diebation ST Dog fe Mata, on Mae 412 deminer a Pe ein nh al Fare ‘Thema Don The Lomond Dstt Ape Dros of he MITE or "he Well Dae pena a aston of he Moe oe "he Wehul Duron Agent 4C Minny Exe Vale ‘Append 4D. Hazard Rate forthe wo ‘Congosent Weal Rens Ste 5 Relibity of Systems ss Serial Cofewon Comins Sees Pll Systems ‘SST ghee vo lnk Ry 152 Ramp tency 1339 Cole Coie Sytem Siocnre Factinn, Miia Cu, ‘sd Minns Path (Opoa) 1 Coheet Syme S82 Min Pak nd Ou Ser | 5 Si Baan ‘ironed ater ae seen 56 Tse c Sepa : “ Rees i Appendix 6C Solution to Standby System 2 Excries iat 122 Consont Sess and Rane Strength 1 Dp a oni ay = ieee a Serre eee em0 83. Dosgn Mats Donne 1 2.5 Secrest imp an Ter 7 5 Redan’ 4 Fale Asie {241 Syren 142 Hanif of Foe Mas 59 Domi of Cte 1408 Aes of ier 4 Cs tovfSewny 126 rma Pai, tfasure | 847 Cogunten 55° Sys Sey a Fa Toe Anas See €8 Que Ant Mointsinabiity 81 Assi of Dawatine 92, Tekin ation ga Emin ie 8? 94° Spon Reporte 83 Rely onl Revenne Moienonce 9% Site Depend Sys vi epi Append A. TheMIT TE eth Preventse Agen 98 Silahonathe Active Reda "tem nh Rep ‘Arr Sh Say Sym Design for Malntinbity 10.1 Maneance Regenesis {at serra 12 tng Detgestti “ 1022 Fo Stn sn hag " 2 403. man Fates Epos 104. Maseranc me Spe Povsoning 14s Fine Pye Quin Model ih Se 11042 Coopers 105. mata Pedion nd Detonation Ange 08” Bi Deh Queving Mosel vailabliy HLT Conc na Defnins ‘tata T 109 pod aT sia es Smet sia tate doom Cones Cat Fanci 11083 read fe ‘pea Soe Sige Ut ih ‘The Analysis of Failure Data Data Colleton and Empirical Methods 122 piel Metis 122 UnrpeCap Ds 1 1222 Grp Compe D1 1223 Unpped Cre, Dam 1 1226 inp Cd Ds 123 Sie Lie Eman Be es13. Reliabiliy Testing 4 1s 1 Pri Tsing, 132. Relay Lie Teng 183 Tettine Cane 117 tf ter 134 amv ising DSS mrt Megae eg #1182 16 Atoraa e estig Tai Nena Vn Ts 11262 de 137 Expermena Dee 1B Compan Fare Hodes ‘penn 1A" Detamo Esped Te, Aopen 130, aged Tet Tine cy Tine ~~ xecbet Reliability Growth Testing 151 Rei Gre Pots 142 ele Gra Cave 163. uane Gro Mose 10 AMSA Nae eA Po iio Poe oe 145 Other omth Met "denttying Faitar and Repair Distributions 151 Kenting Canine Dsnbtios 352 iy Pte and Ler Sars Ce: 11823 Normal Pa 1124 Log os 11823 Spy Cn ne Pe 153 Parmer Exim enn / 132? Wal) 183 ‘Noma nd opel MLE? 1843 Met ‘mn wh Magy oe 6 18 154 Condens nels a st) €or Conn Pai te ape Mat | 1542 Cane a foe Drone 155 Parmesan fr Covarinte Models ws Deni 18" Weal Miu ond sma a" ‘Apenlc 38 Weta MLE 9h Mainly Cersre Das a Appel SC MLE NomalanLagsona ‘srs ws Cee Da a vere ” Goodaessof Ft Tests a 161 Ch Sq Goades oF Te » 162-Baets Test fete Exponent Disibton se 13. Mn’ tes or Weal ute ie 1. Kehmpr Siteoy Tes for Noa ad Leptomal stant “ 165 Teens owes aw cess Mode pt 6. Op Fig Dstabetons on Brees pa Application Reliability Estimation and Applicaton as 171 Cae Reding a 172. Giee2 Bema Teng as 113 Gio 3 Preventive Mcmenace Anas a TA. Gi Rea Nation a 175. Case Relay Growth Tei a 176 Case Repu sytem Anais ot 103. Gare Maly Coed Bat oe Implementation es MLD Obpetves Punting an Process py 182 Thetis of Reka nd Maia sn sem Desh oo 22 tee ot Mee 822 Moa eer 183 Oranzatna Consens ” 184 Dam Sores an Dts Clean Mth & Ti Pelle! 1802 Pc Rlyent Oprin Fle F124. Exel Da 165 Produce lain, Waa, and Raat 186 Sata Relaiy References Appendix Index PREFACE, ANOUP THE HOOK ‘is isan incor teak on lity mia egnecting i wie tthe underoath ny of iistextmay be covered none semester cose rte eet Deca intwo sea quer Thee edd ine arte Te ft ut coves ‘ent ad ata mdse. the send prt aes he oa ot ‘ate ot ep dt a i pa poe vane sd apc bit nosing eases pe nnan laity a easy Frotins Chen xtson ey fave spay eased on eet me ‘ng eo the sta ayo fe dt Many ar wien at aan evel tees extensive conti petty and ass ne a | shea sth nee snk ve teeadcoveg a pa cs ini) dina wands meal ery et "port The sae ners in aon piece oe ‘Meme ane xs vabl wel spp ese pals, ‘vale withthe texts MS-DOS ssn at my eased fr pobe svi Since fae in repaints nesve so ‘Narre este brn pring meron ands Sle eae tone on hea cna any plage alle neenouraged abe Te ring ebony eng tear willed mae exes te cmp poring aa ays ‘Thee compute apts sl old a toy ey nla 1: The alle vie sia fr cone onsrerive ‘Ternary tet of hie io site ast fey and min imi ene te enncering se pang engoee eccal ‘manage os inl ey med oma hci nly sal sic opty ss aconpsednpar yt nto pty and se ‘cseonps win een fire sc. aay, deraonc! ayers wees apes hte ay fcc cn =ryonon, Naaman ans pb tng ont laces Nerden coi th hese ae ad emul instr couse coun probly an acs ec ‘frais ia A seen above pe hte eee vanced ‘ned endmaimasmby engin sn cnt aes es1s pe tat tem in het wl col he ste cls and nae fare nd ep te pon cay aod vay ‘ead ply hese mos in he dese fps, conoe and 9 ten heed eal sould be pods st reo ashy ACKNOWLEDGMENTS wh nk he several (sory) ewer fr te any hell sues fc To he exe tha ane ben ie ere ot ie tte teen inmesaay prove esta of epee ttn at ‘enmin aloe wold te ems Ld a atop eet a ‘estan Ken Bese and Callen Doosan exp ped toi ‘irc nomerur ays The twinge ave court examples ‘ech oeverbedsnanone Wie gat Asean, Dal Rom ‘ehou Ibs Sa ap mes Wee fei ago othe nal and po {ction sa t Mow lant Fulton Serves. 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With ee except ip noma hgh the leputmedei wich ina fr eat fae pes ae nen This allows he ert oc several exon he sae i st wa ‘oie the di The he excepto erupts md lee ae {omthcarve, anda mn apt rte hsql ees, ack ete rin valve tae fp a fs {any iets DAT whic spi yb ran ‘uta pncrated ao dled he ying hs vss she Bi a esate te ty a ee tr dap Ths le a hen be ey wad psu raed Tip sts i ain Te pg sy ace Data Sas Four daa re itd wih he tne rth sto in besaming um with tare. Theda wendy seers este bans shown ine blowing be Bt Ba Lpmmt tyetnes? Gamee Introduction ‘Things. Dugg he ast oye hi utr a experienc awe omer ching ko wahig ache aes batey gy caster ve ca Pg ura were ek Noppy deve go TV ema cna gut Fervony 9c apie quan sbi nine aaa ae heft Thectackedwt-oeraing way ares ft liu comer ving sic sgh 0 witha ssc and on Tc ey, ‘iccnpne ster andthe washing mathine nator espe west RO ml ieTeteser ove pl wes pie coming hesroun of en posing tough Cayo ate hot water keane i eke The come ‘Separate wie ko fresemive mameanc, tick coed om “lunge he mote Te ect he dk dv es oan ‘kw cman) mechan ent rene co fe we ‘Sse yard leo component fare. On the of ad he see Spier fare wa casdy an open taser Po cnstton eed ‘hefowero eating dace othe omer Some of se ares eed moc incmsenence in adion thet economic ip. 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Which edge te aus othe haere hs tn platen ein dest on como at ings ml pn fe on fn angen yo oor tans and on inet epere The Hrd Comes) Ce {Covet Cte ot agen 1978 fo tae do the gh ‘ie stow and ce ccumaned ote oA mae hing a fe ‘ye asthe icone) of meray he wn sn ete. a Amine qe ity sna econ The Tee Mies Grin 197. whch pul kd os ae ea tbe eaf bab neha oda er When flop ting sect ‘esd frre mana sia he ow of king mr te ate ‘Wain iss ween by mnrance tape Anema i ie aed toch casing tom rte ton sling en, Oper wee ier renga nent woking pel aking te og os mth hte tar wee operating Te 198 expos fhe pe sl {hanger was a sah fhe are a he ber Orne tt were ed the cl he es Te ces efi "Bich comedy mang he nies” rm sve empl ne cance th ing pods ad 9 se irs i om minnie ct pan. See hci mantic pect aman ro a le {xceve emioneta shee Under cuts Se Su das te asc canbe ate fer ang am propery or it ty {ely Engines spose fr prt den hoe de a "sah aml mania sdesgn crt The eth fh exam ce he weal mnie ad the engine ote cmp mde ed aay "eces at Frm te aslo ety an ey cginsoang. “hs then, saoa on hearer charcer ote fs ‘ott compet et Rely a aby ene sen Sy hacer, mess andanethe fate anes aro note peratonal wy nrg signe inating cing Ie enlarge they es ing vn opeating ine Cll assed ith aye mana iy fer ten mpm canbe pie oe opetaing ste they have all ste ones, Ay mens the combined Eppraisal fet of the ie nthe epi pees nah npontantchrstersic of ut ‘Tile STUDY OF RELIABILITY AND MAINTAINABILITY Aseointing dines, rabid isi re eaey new The {ou hs ten med y soe facto, wich ole ett ety an sopisiestion fens, pic amarees of alist ot pest {alone we nd reultone cong psc ay, goverment cna ttl reiremen omen edad aaa ronan species, tn rt otra ean fr he gh co fale repr, ed way pegs "AGalp pol xn in 1985 othe Ansan Sak fr Qty Cont ried oer nal termine wt ibs te ot mgt en slecting od. The 1 aes se Tale 1 were rane ty ‘ching on scl et porn 10th ser {Spetowe ae shown the the Obes oh ety 8 masa {Me ination psamer prs, ee and may rem cny an porn pr of i nse espn pct sa necesry ncn in e-le song,e ntan Pars ruemen eermnaton replacement deco h staihe ity Improvement ‘Aros we 3 su of tty or prtoance inating eed ‘semen Fas tht conto igh efor apd st sea,2s of ey. ett, and ready. The pensar een eit nd "smi engineing to mprone th clay a sey ty ‘trap be deped nd xy lo alae Duca oe Nes thy. ts mprvement ca be acive in seve ways Beal Sa atu a cpnens dnd tapi otto ay bee fs wll te he bat of ae Dera ein tpn eo tenis ve pois ase man fai doe Icy gl Forexampi nelson conf maybe denne eboae 12s aspected temper bt mal vane my sty an {heats such mechan ee sho ansat ens inept eet can ve sgt fe on rt Rel ey heen, acl mee te nr conprt ‘eon ila rene fara lay tr a ber fconpncs ina tem inseae ecy fh compcr at ‘zu ceed nadernet spn lily oe ee ino ingen tence is Sten ty arty fe aol sn pa ‘eve ey bets nme mn sp au ees For can tng nal de Sle on gree mini pth fran aoe mar fla clay Daa a {sin cits pdactn yitetons ances nd yee "ty inthe maturing pcs open nd acces ae Sis eae ht aw ml a pps pats met aed sald oe ds cn pero le ay edie gh pene na "stn am us eplacemene pais, egiosing mies an te sto evita tions an peg le Once te nom a “ial ene ate od nai np ie oe ule pre ats Seo comes such sil evel ep ead ine mati bo tin anil pose nay. Rely nd ima engicg hace hae Feat tonpon pce * 2 Random versus Deterministic Failure Pherae ‘Te aia pach ost in ngorng isto ein igh ey magn hay et the rae Tas demise meio wha ey "at of pep ies repens il ses soa esol seh Sy int ten eae anderen, eligi ne asec yan cane ad sata wees On oe sep vew then asceapg cab ito ust system an comp ais, pbs fuentes fe were eo coped te ena poston chit) ‘ate pce many ral ae of congener etait practi, boever ih ed tae py Seo scom ‘Sct nan nape Hud the py shen on poas o le roceer hat os far ares il appar oc net tie: Even re cased y een ie ee omen cape. ‘inner endo stchahorkans eats or cei so, Wit spear eno However fe al sate dca ofthc ‘hin resign event wl then chan evem wl neo th npn thn we non lo be so pee te aes deers Tse. ie hn hat pcs 3 ‘Throne may ea ors acne dd a ‘uty dsm Soh penne sien served in pss ec whe age ners compan re ole, Weare see pit ae ‘Aco Isonable terme ew iy ars analyze he phys eft pce ad hohe ml ne he tine oie. Th pecs rte vg he re mes id {he bse casey ares ean test ine a er oe of own oe ett sees ent fos petting soon: mei propria at omen We wl in oe ys fale spc tT dette pe macho chp a foe sad on he Prva nd sl iw fib CONCEPTS, TERMS, AND DEFINITIONS ety sd bee probably ato cnet oe ys il erie {tug fncton foro he pera of tin sl nic sed erg fans. hs the preity a2 sare serie. To stein iy {nn opera see, the don matte male specie Fs om wane san seal eso os are mt cbs al se fe Seed eae the neo eng proomed y he sytcn, Ssw tine mat be ee. Fc ean, sete tn ra ay ado (Sendra tine oering sor cpl A ee fr cxanp yb Ting fanart ad eel tang of le mt ‘Sesrlliy ot dtd ove neste esenen ih mes ‘onl For ration see fares ay bedtime aces [rode Tide system tol be served ner tral yrtorcge The ‘rule sch actos as sin nase weigh la reve) Fenmea (empresa pectin ons (eg. ae sage ain, nortanMainaiabitiy deed bh i thle component 9 tem il be restored or esi 0 0 pie enon iin foie of ‘then maberance permed i acs pred pede Mai {myth sity pr zn tn, Ul hes sab is cot, time dtd ca tn atngh olor example e dry rt in). ray sack es wang Fe tance persue! an pvc inl mina vine Oe, weer mini ter oe rt ea esi ic ony Uhetnivon rept te aed unit nd ny miaaves sue ey Presid maine psc nce mato he mame in which iis we pete ba asthe sas sf arene soe pete Shares as and maou he owns matennce pa sil vel [esamel a th smb ope ne he manos “Aoi deed prob componet ote spe ointment fn nbn see sd “econ Arby may tbe cp he pees ie scsi pig ne Ma oe ers teeny heed nsec cen way psn bow spa ap inca dwaime ie mesure io chay aye frosty hat hcp ary nfs ste chen tity ve previ fal an ben ested nk loa Sn, The re avait ca Revere ess asso ey Avy ay uns bots fare eli) and pas uaa). Tse dons tr eso me pei in suse chapcm whe te Sep edt aerial Retbity versus quay Reta lost soit with the guy of ps ani fa con sided a abet any: uy canbe sed gies he aut ch he rot sate we enome equemets Pet uly Inpa foncto a dsenancotoanset beignets Halo penis ne produto Sse ann adheeno sarang cee aa let ‘cee. Qualys schieveoupna pl giy suns am, ety ss es pled sett poess an oom fecesnay Wachee gh ort ait ‘hi ce a eat concer wih ow ge rt ontines ‘otic nc tbc operanal poe qsty pod wil ly ae peo ‘alia ahighuaiy pc il have igh elabliy As we ave an weer reliably mn def eer tor sl mt te eyo rod isle Nevenhles ety may ecw oe uly fe pd {rs eration! proce vernon sch etn ule ee APPLICATIONS, “The yes of oben elo tough be ef hiya iii ea ons ae theallowing example fxanrucs.t. The A Mie Coop ace slat hme aor es ae 00 rue Safe es row ‘insert gyre say: ect aes ay Steen sso Oe open i oie i yyy‘smi ea Fr es YOR sn sey We WV Coy Eevee asin itn ey et nd ing eis ded nat Lt ete te fon ata mernsetie Rr eng af saurits4 Acomnsow pnt Ine ee prt epee ‘ia mt erg Si imp ing eit ea Diy oe pci ine.14 hnaee mistory ay fasts of aii may be fain acai ons ed he i ‘ura ypu nc stay hana sural pbc eee ‘ha 840 Weta gee immotas- eng ote te Sato eating sma The sal scr ya foes ee ‘pn ihe 1930s anda ace comin, Alin ear 1934 sar oe pet nschateas a5 ein a eval eo play ech gE ‘be apne shaban povided we the acral eta oi Zi s'wano ni ae Woe Wa steht bese sean a, ‘Tis cane abt bce of heaves eames eles egceea ood oe ing he wan erates hg are ts tere. I pons ses hs SE monly ae lowing he wo Area a fae CARING ‘5 cine by the camera sinc ingest eke ee ‘ent lene w anc bythe mil) In 80 de USA Fe ft 2a go ipve penile lynn ee Depart ase the Adve Gp on Relay of Eten ores (AGREE) Therutenent of eb ting an demon seo ‘ered rm adn eo ‘Nak psd ding he 190 centred aan te ao expe tan to repeat ae ins althgh ene man the rae te Weil Gabon incensed by teen fie sae Ilene ‘ety ince Barly {961} nd Baw sd Prt 196) Thee feawe by Sit (1976 ad Kapur an ane [1971 he br Ne a ‘eld, Dring he 170 eas shied al ea as ‘aus of concen abt ua eats Posing note ND, ay ‘eovaks reid isle aetna the Mra bh ey sat {anabiiy esived venevedeapbasia thems 180s wh he acoso ‘he Ar Fac Raby and Manainabuly (RAM) 200 progam Odeo "he RM 2100 program were oimvese syste rains in ya sad ‘eee msmenace panel uence a Isp cos ph ccoed ‘nb nd aoty by eset Same fb caret erent nny may be oan in ‘he llowing unas nd pass BEE Transactions on Rly Proveeigr Aaa Rely and Meninaity Symp Tecmomcry Sper Bech Jou of he Ameicon Siicatseciaion ‘Sch eine a tet ep hy me Mee ‘mea ry ny ta ae a al fel een ‘oval Resorch gies IherateraSara of ein, Quy ond Safes Engcering eceronte Rey ety Engineering Jol of pied Reiiy 1s SCOPE OF THE TEXT Figure 4 sows he watz isbok. The k did nto the as aC, "Retail Mosahervetape mana eds wet nang ongoent sd en abi. asain, and alain Capen e el netttamen |} [sea oc | aioe onion waze H_ a rpm tetevel he come fe ous sed von exponential, Well noma nd Topol csibaton. The ale ston Seine ee most ea ‘epee the dey ft th lly Ton, ae ad ate ‘eeson. Candin lai and he mean tet fare te a Peete. {Chane a6 develo te mathemati or amleing compen sym cy pntentnowedge ote ly he component te Conson wie thesptn Cher S asses ndpenence mgt compen, sod Caper {ses he es ich conan Fees depen nt se hos ‘These depen ih thn ensue nh sch sed oad ‘yen re mye wih Maroy raceme Cpr? vas sme om 1 ary develmere fet by nsrng mess aed ne py <2 rcs vem Chaplet pra stn hy oa he Enicering des pres spent. Ts te developed the neat he haps n wh mati ad ait ede. hy low ini ds tt en yc mani pty, Chip {Su Chup devel in, naan seats sales Chapr 1 “tases nity ote des pt ew The Arata of ale Da conc wit tail extiges sig etre ao inayat ina «hia espectly pc sopra) ety datos ne ved inch 12. anl Caper randori perf cay eg Relay tesing poids ne other man saree athe oe Ing eltor opera data lab et dns es fo in ‘enn io ay oi Tu ot mo ‘ret rhs bn ted pare aes Sa ‘io mst ested fom anon sem se n Pa Pi ies "stton the dstonprssers, hes a Chap Sal tia ones of tes dese Chg 1, che pet tel ype ‘Sized Gatitaon. From the mana presente in Pat the sty egies ‘Shui te ae esti est pln cl re op Gt nd aoe {Stil ana of the dt esting inn arp ih aa ly mode The aeceped mode ay hm be man sng anes feveiped Pa Pa, *Appliation” codes the escent frilly engineering by preseing see apis fn Caper 7a yng pe, pe dures, hate and cones inplenening ety Poem hoger {8 Topeer teas we chapter sept tg th eal Pare sel es eset inacry teats oo relay ne Bun and Engel [991 las {1922} Bada (1991) Crore [991 Da sod Wg Gre 98),Kescan [1991] Lezns (1995, Rana 193), Ro 1983, Sharan (191) aed Zach (193) APPENDIX 1A ATROBABILITY PRIMER faye The moe buted ker ofthe sen sample poe snd eve SE ert app pty of ee td ‘neo lenenry event The scoel mse shat on these of ran ables By spetyng pcs tin fra anal weet opty rer the anion pron: We wl have cesuen hgh is scum tems ease RANDOM EVENTS nat emerge cn be dsb nde event A and eat il os Wi soe ratty Sete by PIE) whoreD = REN = | IE} = Ouse aninpsbleevent nd PE) = Iden cence Te ‘hot PUES he mel stat te event eg fe) wl oc Thecoletinn fal posible uta (evens) eae anon pone cai saree wie 8am N= vey ever hoe aoted wih compenenay ena ih the rept the even Far eka I Eepesent fale ten represen ttle Sace ser th cen Os omplennt mt 8) + PE) = 1 ME) = 1- RE) oy ‘Thee worry operations permed on events Te siden ste inencatono toc od Bad writen 498 Te ecto the ot nsing ne cme coon oth events Aa The sco operon ‘Seen steno teen aod Bands write AWB. Peni ven costing hse acres in ete event Ae eve Bo one toa1 Aneta an Manny Engi “Too event and ae sully exe ifthe ecurenc of one pees the cceurene oe ter Foran an vet song se tal ‘live A sampneet cnet thant faa eso ane oct Igoe Aan emul tle, PAE) = may + 8) 2 PANE = Fi re ere isthe mo isi even: 1D) "Teves sl Bnet sol if RAN = male aa atthe iy oie gi eps of hk ps SSL AD) 03. Then ATH = N02) “02 he poet tt be com Io events mt independ atte ate pend he rsbaily rts teectin ms be tie! wig sno pty Deletes toa pas matey = PAB Ls l= Pan us ih nea te probabil of ven BT Pra 8) = PA BB) a9 gunn 16) proven general emul ing i teen cay icone sbi ios a Tena ay posi cucanes (eh ace sample space) andthe toon 04a 8 ‘ese hse veal ae i ato 4 Froth peng, Eg (1.3) et ‘Se pcenage ies nia ae nin I sd ae dpe mang _ wayne, 7 ~~ PB) “Tis ret roves i int he conc of independent evens I ad ce Indopenche ceurenc est ons se ie pba Paley ma ‘aah eet component 2 ogc I FA) = AB) ~ 05 ‘al Sh) Owe ae eed whe cet ft compen ei 8. ainn| a) = 0080.10 Panrcat eaurnice,Atecomn pl rm pina em tt, ‘Sie een 8) = S8- OS a | a1 Se = BSS ‘The aoe scusionpvites gene ape analyzing iescton of ese. The ling le feted We ao ke, Ses ch he sae ‘ete viet two ese . PAU) ~ PU) PUB) RAN un uatn (12) can be expined by absevng tat A) and PB) oh inte [hah 8) Tote PAB) rte soba at once IA and ae nde. em Eq (17 comes PAU) = RA) PUB) RAH ay ihenwie ALU) = KA) + FB) RAL ANP as) srpuraci: Gignac ni Eo 43. wig.) ‘Sunn Al, YA U8) = 1D © Obi he pet at ese ‘Sines etic rata ay ftom MAP OT BAYES" FORMULA, sys fuses cond rabies of to evens ean be ive iyoering ct mang rena) Pa ETAT ay Puan) RaTARAN + RB) A tet even Aan 7A ae ly ease, PALM = EAM 4 Ask ein inp. gy pn te oe sored pence en rt ono[stewie powers: Ten A) = 02 A 4) = hand 643) = PAL = sy a Hae ~ O87 Pa = PBA any Sp Para whee evens A =. fa pin, Th they smal xc Sivan trimer Gonna space ey cle foave) Ara rete ena aE (1) alo A, [RANDOM VARIABLES Ath he concep fs el nn sbi ano po Sosa eel om os nn va ona ae “arabia ts on manic as none aha prety is itn Reds vray sos gol ne) tr sre (ly taking 90 once eg ae The aly Be ‘Stn tt ain a pobliy ech oe of sate one woe Scasins pay an ml sais os Stas vor Catbedocin i sh on me Se Froth acetone Gn ate an ton {COP Fe) teed The Pu or POF Sos te tae of ea ‘iy duet, sen te CDF pre Comat py, = bra. By exmvenon copiers eet he adn 2s ad he Saved ora te Ste ur wes th andon vatae y DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS, Forany discrete dno, we il dfn ps) = FX = 2} whe ts probity Foy Pree ed = Sone) um {the CDF Thre Fs mantic nceaing with O = Fe) = Londo pater FO) = Osa Ao) = Foran ore carat, Lowaes : 2 St so Sa cas) 42S aPoe oy evra of te dt, "Tu de Sst re ery el in eli he ini nd te Poison tas BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION ee spices ra nthe variance Va) = apt. Oh us) “Themen orgie BU) = SSrpechne shoce'n Wel fang Then = GS tt hetsn laity ad nity Enineing {yO = 005th var 0 = OO dhe pobaiy f Peer = 1) = (}}oo0! nent = 0% 1K6 POISSON DISTRIBUTION 1a the acter vibe peeing th umber of random es sec ee) na ap is = 2 The Pn pay as a2. 19 a vec = 0 she men mer faeatnces i he id tne a rors ner SSE - 6 a eSknisvous pista Toss 1 ing oe oa cies say aan amiren=n | sna wn 3 po) = 8 aww s mte eet frunee=F0)- Fn om 00 = 4 | sade aan ~ fie-wrsinee ae Fy = S74 where X arene random vars ing ens ore Sam, at wes Se? 125 In gna ey descr ation ofa ran varie in tas of ro fshat CDE Aaa nae ay Ren (hl oul cen es th ve sof he og aos Ren? weld ret chang, The concep ann arb a pte ht nratons ar expel more fl nth net sever er he ae ely anche ements tisePART 1 Basic Reliability Modelscuarrer 2 The Failure Distribution “Tren oc of bk onthe deepest mate els ha de Sree lay of opr ste Ts caper deve or led uty fasion the ey fc, bey dita in {he pou dey font an the ara tft. ach of se fe eatin to coor ray bry fr ore prt Senay een i tne ca {Shute sro tere iso, nd the men eo ae the be cnn Subsouet tapes wl ene ee enon ancy Teel eo hab model u {Tie RELIABILITY FUNCTION Rey seine ah silty ha ye (pone wlantion vr nce pr Tespras bs laonspmatmataly we eine the co ‘Sorrendoy rare Flobe thie fae ote Sten componen, 7 = 0. ‘hon laiy canbe expel A) = Prt =) en seer) = 8.0) = 1 ne RE) = 0. Fora given wa, AC she Feb ute ine ee eter ta regalo ‘we eine mare) en Fay Rewere Fo) =0 nt igen he Fhe robb ha ere oss efi Ne wl tera) ashe ey ton dF) cma ‘ttn to (CDE) fe fle dan, A ct dey - #0) an) 10 eG en ‘scaled he pis des ction (DI, Ths anton dees he spe the are dtbutn Ths he fone stadia 2 ype PD. hn thw ope oso amt [seo (Given te POF. fen ins [sera ey ~ = [' 40a a Inter wots, ah he ely ncn and he CDF eect as wa bre dened by (helices ones he Ce ‘ethene Fare proba wl be dns a OsRnst o=FO=1 ‘The fncton Ris oly wed when habs re og cuted nd he Fanon Fray sd ena praise beng comp Gh ing the PDF, prods ssl resentation oh ale debut, (heels The cove tin nin. (Gre penny ey cnn‘ay This RU) = RTofnd he sign ei artigo 098 ene, we sk - aa = vs 1 0 6 ‘Te robaiity ofa ate cering win amen of ie a] my be few ny fee pray fost las T=) Aw—Fa)= Raab) = [fn 29) Frome press expe, PID = = 100) = RO) RO) = Sa ayy MEAN TIME TO FAILURE, “he mean sinew fale (RETA) ie by serte = £7 = ["syenat en whichis tn ean, oF expected as, epost ei by J TMeanaieshown (penis 24) werte = {rene ee yun (2 ten ei spt tan (2, ‘Themen ofthe sre tion ely oe of sever eases fea tendency hea drain Anse tm ne als ee Riga) = 03 = PAT = tn @) ‘Te mean dies be distin noo ares, ih 9 pee he fa es curing eee the on ine fare 30 ese cen he che ‘mein The mean may be pete thea wee Wey ih Saunt wed average i th mide, os lychee are tine dod Ml) = go $0 a0) ‘ora umal einer oft centered und heel ile il general te grea tha oan nena fhe sae ete cee ‘iin the distin. Figure 22 wath acoso he mete aad ‘eater faribton sowed oe it 102 Sore a fine ‘efoto, teat te cin 9 (neOvi he MTFs wll niu chart ae dba, ‘ter meas ae nectsary One mee tht on se fr deere ‘let natn tne by a= [e-netmesinae any “The vance presen avenge sed dance lene wile fom he MITE tis amessare of he sealer perio, fhe are mesa te ‘mean ieshownin pend 23 ae varance co ake wena @ [Prod orrre? any union 2.12) computa single tan te dfn 212. The ‘Sern of theyre tent devin, Se he st eaten Ine! tha he variance (ich senda ot th, From wt 0) = ise = sn, 1-0 =" 83155 DEES ine TI we il eon er ‘tobe nee die We ald gay pce Son ang Sorts Why HAZARD RATE FUNCTION In alion othe probably factions defied ear, ante Fon, cll he fire at cba raft een ae ne, provi an a Tanna ine tf een E29) Pr[e SP A) = Ro) BD die condo probity fain tein iv om 1 given ‘tte sytem a sods ie nlrersrsalred = RO= RUD i Hrd = Re Ru + 9) mar sia pay aie ero i te) ine eA 40 fa mo ay Ano) 1 $0 a RO” RD “Toe AO kon 8 he nstnonou nd oe ere rate fet. The Taree otin A) pods sheave ayo ecg ar tb tn. atures some canes maybe cared a iceanng FR) ere. Ing (DFR or const (CFR) when A) an neni densi ost ‘arcu hazed efron wi uigey deine eal fon 80 ap ee) - una = =i nein. [aerar = [" a ere RO) ~ Fess the owe it in eto he ig nd ie, « = enf-[nra] wy qt 2). he iy fon ame ar oon, ‘od png ars wari degee f 494 ee sy onl [ sera] =n aseCumulative and average fare rate ‘Tecoma Taste overs rid fines sid by ay ~ [aa ais ‘rele ad use concept inthe serie fle te, dfn tween wo ines armune)= 1 "aya = MAMA aig) Prom B.(.14 an etn, = O ands = 7216) ay be wren amo) —taRe) WR) _ 9 Aree) since = Int = 0. TW AFR nodes fos, th file dbo i characte sing a ncreaing fare te teage (FRA) fe anc oir ‘he ditibaontaa DFRA. vis IR DFR) trae 0 FRA ERA, bette comene cere xan. .conron a suMPLrs Acompethaeiiy tin en by mn-1-2 etsese Ho~ a Barirun curve ‘an impor fr af the za ate ain shown Fig 23. Bocas is ‘Ropes con refed asthe bub eave. Systems ting ths {nisi mom ego eteing fare rater te fcc in ‘wae by sma cons aire tel flue hy 30 ‘Reaigteate suo, Tis carve maybe sane. eto Ie ‘Spout of sel ore ribs, rar shown he following expe 2 ‘Taco eee laranconst re sles sane... Asn the ve bp consid Jar-liwear-oo'n} ozs en (ue Sere say foro $ foes) ‘egal Amin oes MeTee 2s CONDITIONAL RELIABILITY Condos rity suet i dsb he ety of acon oye felon turnin pid To or aes wsrany pen To We Ste cna ‘elt sees of ten ena has opt te Te ‘gene ane ae, i |To) = PrP > Tot eT > To} mrs a sean w= Bly) mem ihe DER Ten om 2.10, eae £090, an vm nen 1 fn? = ye noiro = REDD ira “na3) Sate tran -nes i a sae nye kelty sete Sie xp-ATo ir A> 0 doing at ye een tyes tr She hh ot MT tin on [BB a= gta [ie ain ger ‘ota harbor ny spo te spt cbt sue ane Ij, Aner ntl cons fae me abo dase Ie ale es (ai ae mateo compere conan sod np het he veal fete a econo 89 stan {TIME EXPONENTIAL RELIABILITY FUNCTION ‘nef he mt oon le Staion ey ening isthe exo eae CFR sd Falls de empl random er cane evens Wi — Flows on st inte ing est eo 5s 0 co pote iso one ewes dstnboons analyse stately accaod parmesan ex con neva ante easly computed ifr esting consons ne psec fem) ‘Webesinthe developmen of he ote bysuming hat) = t= AsO Then tom tg 15) mf] ‘Tooth pba fneons ae ila gical Fig 3. fr seve i fect ates ofA To ind the MITE we ws ‘The variances given by Eq (2.1.06 ea [ (pera d es) shes deviation V/A = MITE. Tis an interesting es ae tim es hate vay of ln ae ireater athe aby NTE) ee on (2) The pet ly ain, Seep ei set ae tain FIGURE 1 ome igh aay in eine is ten ceed sol Beate Tha the mem neo fate ces he alr Along A) vain tne ine per Bets aes the ean te aes "send bervaon oneing hi stboton OTT) = TINT = = 0368