Weekly Report

02nd May - 07th May 2011

Global Research Limited

AGRI MAR
AGRI MARKET
“SPICES ENDS HIGHER ON ACTIVE BUYING”

>>

www.capitalvia.com
 J E E R A ( M AY )
JEERA TRADES UP ON EXTENDED BUYING Weekly Report
02nd May - 07th May 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Jeera futures prices traded on positive note on lower Ÿ Lower level buying Script
level buying on previous losses. Futures witnessed
Levels
Ÿ Decline in arrivals
gap up opening on short covering. R3 16343
However, later on prices took decent corrections but R2 15681
declined in arrivals at spot market pushed the prices R1 15418
and futures closed the week on higher note. Jeera
May futures are projected to open on positive note PP 15019
MARKET OVERVIEW
on extended short covering next week. Declining S1 14756
arrivals at spot market of Unjha might support the Last week Jeera was initially bearish but S2 14357
prices. However, prices are vulnerable to sharp later we saw good buying coming at lower
S3 13695
corrections on selling on gains. Arrivals at spot levels and price was sustaining at higher
market of Unjha were reported around 21,000- levels for the rest of the week and even
22,000 bags (Each bag= 55Kg.). According to closed the week near to its high. For the
traders, decline in production is expected to be next week Jeera has resistance at15725
around 10-15% only against the earlier
and support at 14430.
expectations of 25-30% decline. Fall in arrivals in
last few days at spot market of Unjha is supporting
the prices to trade up. As per trade sources, by May-
June crop expectations for Syria and Turkey will also
arrive at the market which might further weigh on STRATEGY
prices. According to derivative analysis, prices and
volumes have shown a positive move while and Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one
open interest is falling. Market has a lot of traders should use the strategy of sell on higher
initiating from both sides but larger traders may be levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains
liquidating into the higher prices. The market may below the level of 14430 then we can
be vulnerable to large price swings as shorter time expect the level of 13950, and if it sustains
frame traders attempt to trade from both sides of above 15725 then we can see the level of
the market but liquidating before end of day. Often
16100.
a signal of a market turns near-term or continued
volatility.

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 2
 G U A R S E E D ( M AY )
GUARSEED RISES ON WEAK ARRIVALS
Weekly Report
02nd May - 07th May 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Guar seed spot as well as futures gained 0.67% and Ÿ Weak arrivals Script
2.23% respectively due to better offtakes amidst
Levels
Ÿ Firm demand
lower arrivals in the major mandis. Arrivals were R3 3296
almost nil in Ganganagar, where stockiest are not R2 3173
offloading the stocks on expectations of further rise R1 3107
in the prices. Official data revealed that exports from
March to December of the financial year 2010-11 PP 3050
MARKET OVERVIEW
were 82% higher compared to the same period last S1 2984
year. Total exports during the FY 20 10-11 might Last week Guarseed was bullish for most S2 2927
have crossed 3 lakh tonnes, however, no official part of the week but we saw good profit
S3 2804
data is available as of now. Record exports during booking coming at higher levels later in
the FY 2010-11 is the only factor that is supporting the week. Guarseed was facing stiff
the bullish trend in Guar complex during the current resistance at 3070 level and price was not
crop season (Oct-Sep 2010-11). Daily arrivals of able to sustain above it. For the next week
Guar in the domestic mandis on an average is
Guarseed has resistance at 3120 and
around 15 thousand bags since last 2-3 weeks.
support at 2940.
According to the Rajasthan farm Department, Guar
seed output in Rajasthan in the current season is
estimated at 14.9 lakh tonnes. The forecasted
Indian output this year is much higher than the 4.5 STRATEGY
lakh tonnes of 2009-10 and 9.5-10 lakh bags in
2008-09. India is the largest Guar producing For next week in Guar seed traders should
country in the world contributing 80% in total go for buying at lower levels strategy, if
supplies followed by Pakistan with 10% share in Guar seed sustains above the level of 3120
world production. Guar futures are expected to gain we can see the level of 3180, and below
further on robust export demand. IMD, in its initial 2940 it can touch the level of 2890.
forecast has not shown any probability of deficient
or excess rains for the monsoon season June —
September 2012, Thus, Guar price movement
would be dependent on export demand as long as
the monsoon forecast remains favorable. Prices are
expected to trade in the range of Rs. 2900-3200 per
qtl levels in the medium term.

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 3
 S O YA B E A N ( M AY )
SOYBEAN TRADES DOWN ON GLOBAL CUES
Weekly Report
02nd May - 07th May 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
NCDEX May Soybean futures traded lower on Ÿ Weak Global Market Script
account of weak global market sentiments due to
Levels
Ÿ Slow import demand
China's tightening monetary policies, slow import R3 2537
demand from China. Higher US sowing acreage of R2 2477
Soybean (shifting from corn) and harvesting started R1 2444
in South America (Argentina and Brazil) will increase
the supply provided support to the bears. Higher PP 2417
MARKET OVERVIEW
production of domestic oilseeds and peak arrivals in S1 2384
Rabi oilseeds also added bearish market sentiments. Last week in Soybean we saw good profit S2 2357
Weekly export inspections report realesed on April booking coming at higher levels and price
S3 2297
25, 2011, which is reached 8.336 million bushels, it was not sustaining at higher levels. Last
was well below than expectation of 13-20 million week Soybean took support from its
bushels and down from 15.5 million last week. important level of 2390 and bounced back
Cumulative shipments have reached 85.2% of the from this level. For the next week Soybean
USDA forecast for the season as compared with
has resistance at 2455 and support at
82% as the 5-year average for this time of the year.
2380.
Government in its third advance estimate has
estimated the record production of India's oilseeds
at 30.25 million tonnes in 2010- 11 vs 24.93 million
tonnes in 2009-10. Soybean output is estimated at STRATEGY
12.59 million tonnes against 10.05 million tonnes in
2009-10 and Groundnut at 7.09 million tonnes Soybean is moving in a consolidation
against 5.5 million tonnes in 2009- 10. Oilseed phase on charts and one should look for
complex are expected to trade lower on account of selling opportunities at higher levels, if
weak global market sentiments as harvesting Soybean sustains below the level of 2380
pressure in South America and increase in US we can see the level of 2340, and on the
Soybean plantation are in favour of the bears. upside if it sustains above the level of 2455
we can see Soybean at 2490 level.

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 4
 C H A N A ( M AY )
CHANA WEAKENS ON HIGHER ARRIVALS
Weekly Report
02nd May - 07th May 2011

Daily Chart
FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW REASONS FOR MOVEMENT WEEKLY PIVOTS
Rising supplies of Chana in the domestic markets Ÿ High arrivals Script Levels
amidst ongoing harvesting, led futures to fall further Ÿ Selling pressure
by 0.22% on Wednesday. Chana spot prices have R3 2410
declined by more than 5% since last one month R2 2361
when the arrivals from Rajasthan commenced. R1 2338
Arrivals in Rajasthan stood at around 1.10 lakh bags
on Wednesday. Harvesting in Rajasthan, the second
PP 2312
MARKET OVERVIEW
largest Chana producing state in India after MP is on S1 2289
its peak and would continue till mid May. Last week Chana broke its important S2 2263
Apart from Chana, other Pulses like Tur are also support of 2300 but was not sustaining
S3 2214
trading lower on expectations that the sowing below it and later price bounced back from
acreage might increase owing to normal monsoon. this level. Still Chana is week on charts and
Chana prices in the intraday are expected to decline price is not sustaining at higher levels. For
further owing to higher supplies in the domestic the next week Chana has resistance at
markets. In the short term (Till mid May), we expect
2360 and support at 2280.
May contract to trade in the range of Rs. 2,200 —
2,350 per qtl levels. However, in the medium term,
we expect Chana prices to recover as prices arrival
pressure from the fresh crop would start declining
gradually. Also, fresh demand might emerge STRATEGY
thereby as prices would be trading almost near the
MSP levels. Thus from the long term perspective, Overall trend of Chana is bearish and one
any significant decline in the prices may be treated should go for selling at higher levels
as a good buying opportunity expecting prices to strategy in it. For the coming week if
recover by Rs. 300-3 50 per qtl by June. Chana sustains below 2280 level we can
see it at 2240 and above 2360 we can
expect the level of 2395.

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 5
 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report
02nd May - 07th May 2011

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver *
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 14792 14907 15282 14620 15155 40845 363 17466 54,066.89

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 27847 27975 29342 27521 29069 74186 1222 9354 188,339.35
TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 8850 8810 9186 8742 8850 23440 0 14330 18,508.74
GARSEDJDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 3053 3054 3117 2994 3041 1070510 -12 153300 293,380.58

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 8694 8643 8890 8511 8698 53965 4 12410 42,523.95
CHARJDDEL NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2343 2335 2335 2286 2315 388820 -28 143600 81,691.83

SYBEANIDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Soybean RS/QUINTAL 2444.5 2450 2450 2390 2411 204960 -33.5 151140 45,222.68

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 629.2 631 632 614.7 625.75 532610 -3.45 98760 299,260.78

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Rape Mustard Seed RS/QUINTAL 2746 2750 2764 2728 2752 355910 6 135410 85,731.11
COCUDAKL NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Cotton Seed Oil Cake RS/QUINTAL 1156 1155 1156 1074 1102 349310 -54 88920 35,922.92

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 20-JUL- 11 Gur RS/40KGS 1054 1056 1080 1038 1059 48700 5 11850 12,012.52
POTATO NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Potato RS/QUINTAL 510.5 514 522.8 489 507.7 69945 -2.8 20250 3,069.35

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 30-APR-12 Kapas RS./20KG 923 935 935 830 850.4 268 -72.6 176 379.95
WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 20-MAY-11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1192.8 1193 1223 1188 1221 18200 28.2 26930 1,388.46

MENTHA OIL MCX 31-MAY-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1042.5 1034 1070 1023 1039.7 2734 -2.8 617 11825.04
CARDAMOM MCX 14- MAY-11 Cardamom RS/KG 1062.4 1057 1057 969 988.6 5056 -73.8 1579 4701.23
* Turnover Till Friday

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 15155 2.45

NCDEX PEPPER 29069 4.39
NCDEX TURMERIC 8850 0.00
NCDEX GUARSEED 3041 -0.39
NCDEX GUARGUM 8698 0.05
NCDEX CHANA 2315 -1.20
NCDEX SOYBEAN 2411 -1.37
NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 625.75 -0.55
NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2752 0.22
NCDEX COTTONSEED OIL CAKE 1102 -4.67
NCDEX GUR 1059 0.47
NCDEX POTATO 507.7 -0.55
NCDEX KAPAS 850.4 -7.87
NCDEX WHEAT 1221 2.36
NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1039.7 -0.27
NCDEX CARDAMOM 988.6 -6.95

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 6
 W E E K LY M A R K E T U P D AT E
Weekly Report
02nd May - 07th May 2011

Weekly Gainers Weekly Losers

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
PEPPER 20-MAY-11 29069 4.39 KAPAS 30-APR-12 923 -7.87
JEERA 20-MAY-11 15155 2.45 CARDAMOM 14- MAY-11 1062.4 -6.95
WHEAT 20-MAY-11 1221 2.36 COTTON SEED OIL 20-MAY-11 1156 -4.67
CAKE

Weekly Pivots
Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3
JEERA (MAY) 16343.00 15681.00 15418.00 15019.00 14756.00 14357.00 13257.00
PEPPER (MAY) 32286.00 30465.00 29767.00 28644.00 27946.00 26823.00 25002.00
TURMERIC (MAY) 9814.00 9370.00 9110.00 8926.00 8666.00 8482.00 8038.00
GUARSEED (MAY) 3296.67 3173.67 3107.33 3050.67 2984.33 2927.67 2804.67
GUARSGUM (MAY) 9457.67 9078.67 8888.33 8699.67 8509.33 8320.67 7941.67
CHANA (MAY) 2410.00 2361.00 2338.00 2312.00 2289.00 2263.00 2214.00
SOYBEAN (MAY) 2551.17 2477.00 2444.00 2417.00 2384.00 2357.00 2297.00
REFINED SOYA OIL (MAY) 658.75 641.45 633.60 624.15 616.30 606.85 589.55
MUSTARD (MAY) 2820.00 2784.00 2768.00 2748.00 2732.00 2712.00 2676.00
COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (MAY) 1274.67 1192.67 1147.33 1110.67 1065.33 1028.67 946.67
GUR (JUL) 1143.00 1101.00 1080.00 1059.00 1038.00 1017.00 975.00
POTATO (MAY) 574.10 540.30 524.00 506.50 490.20 472.70 438.90
KAPAS (APR 2012) 1081.80 976.80 913.60 871.80 808.60 766.80 661.80
MENTHA OIL (MAY) 1138.23 1091.23 1065.47 1044.23 1018.47 997.23 950.23
CARDAMOM (MAY) 1180.87 1092.87 1040.73 1004.87 952.73 916.87 828.87

DISCLAIMER
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have
the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most.

Investment in Commodity has its own risks. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources
that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred
based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above.

The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice.

CapitalVia does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Analyst or any person related to CapitalVia might be holding positions in the stocks recommended.

It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone
can be held responsible for.

Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is
received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer.

All Rights Reserved.

Global Research Limited

www.capitalvia.com 7