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you sign up with a link in the description China is huge the kind of huge that's hard to wrap your head
around beginning in the 1950s is population exploded from an already respectable 500 million two
almost three times that today which makes it bigger than all of North America Australia and Europe
combined it consists in economic growth has made it one of the world's great Powers with enough
military might to clean the strategically important South China Sea and enough influence to begin the
most ambitious infrastructure project in history A-1 trillion-dollar Network ports pipelines and railroads
across 65 countries but none of this was inevitable wild China rapidly and forcefully industrialized it
faced massive famine and housing shortages it's a condom time to develop in the world if we feared
overpopulation China's response was the famous one child policy which limited ethnic Chinese Families
2 a single child with a few exceptions to enforce the law women were forcefully sterilized and fined for
having too many children the problem is it worked or something did historians doubt it prevented 400
million births claimed by the government but China's total fertility rate the average number of children a
woman will have in her lifetime has fallen all the way to 1.6 well below the 2.1 needed to maintain its
eyes there simply aren't in the children that will begin to shrink the one child policy was repealed in
2015 but it won't make a significant difference because it only ever sped up the unavoidable as Nations
develop a choose to have drastically fewer children China's problem isn't unique about half the world
lives in a country that is or soon will be in the same position but it is uniquely Pig and the timing
uniquely bad the story of China in the 21st century is just as much about demographics as it is GDP
military power and the rule play the coming demographic crisis don't understand why it's such a threat
and whether something can be done we need to look a little more closely are the individuals humans are
unpredictable we don't know what someone will do or say or bride because if they don't know impulse
guides your decision to add guacamole just as it does what college you attend what countries don't care
about individuals they care about groups in the beauty of demography is that groups are predictable
beri of course nothing is certain fitri compete and estimates vary but it's much easier to guess how many
eighteen-year-olds will have in 30 years and in general what they'll be doing then say the next three
decades of foreign policy or culture new country as yet figured out how to manufacture 18 year olds not
even China and that means population today is a good peek at population Tomorrow release
information is combined with Tio politics or economics it goes from a mildly interesting to downright
powerful here's what we know about China these lines is one of his age groups with babies at the
bottom and elderly at the top first or consumers from 18 to 45 we know people are spending their going
to school saving not so much and despite what this group says about Millennials they're very important
because consumer spending is one of the biggest contributors to economic growth next or the money
makers these people have paid off their debt now they're saving for retirement and even though they're
a smaller share of the population that they generate most of its income in the US for example real Road
call me Samantha firman's best friend finally at age 65 people are done working done saving and largely
done spending what's special about this group is how quickly in a single day a retiree often goes from
contributing the highest taxes of their lifetime to almost nothing as they slowly collect pensions and
social security phone right now let's ignore the total number of people tryna could be bigger like this or
smaller like this what's important is the balance between these different groups and that's why this
graphic is so useful is called a population pyramid because for most of History it has been a constant
stream of babies at the bottom and a small number of deaths with each subsequent year a good
example is Niger where the average woman has six point five children mortality is very high making the
average age only 15 but much of the world no longer looks like a pyramid as you can see there are two
big bulges and its population here and here the first is currently in its peak spending years II right in the
prime of its Higher Learning tytax intervening years it's no wonder taina is seeing massive economic
growth but that's what makes a demographic crisis such an ugly one it happens very slowly and then all
at once remember this huge group of workers will soon and quite suddenly retire as they start waiting
for the checks to arrive but the group responsible for writing those checks or at least funding them is
getting smaller and smaller the problem isn't just Financial a single child must now care for two parents
and for grandparents to the United Nations expect China's dependency ratio of the number of non-
working compared to working age people to increase at roughly the same rate as Japan's whose
population began shrinking in 2011 and now sells more adult diapers than infant by 2050 China may
have more retirees than all of Germany Japan France and Britain worse than one child policy combined
with a cultural preference for males as created a massive gender imbalance as a result it's likely that by
2030 1/4 of Chinese men in their late 30s will have never married at a minimum an abundance of
Forgotten young man that woke are some social anxiety or possibly as some experts suggest serious
conflict it sounds a lot like the plot of a movie perhaps No Country for young men of course China is
aware of the problem but it's fighting and inevitable demographic transition in the beginning or China
the early 20th century children are abundant because you can only expect you to survive you don't have
the education or tools for Family Planning and because the best way to grow tomatoes is the first grow
children seriously for enny sleep-deprived parents wonn this will be a shock but giving birth was once
the ultimate productivity hack before there were tractors there were children and then people stop
dying it really only takes a few improvements to health care for Rapid reduction in mortality and that's
how the world Grew From 1.6 to 6.1 billion people in one century that short window of work you were
people are dying but everyone still having children but it is just a window after immortality drops
fortuity is right behind it as industrialization that brings all workers Define jobs in the city children
become less a utility and Maura liability the kind that screams and cries and generates a student loan
debt the saying goes the best contraceptive is economic development affected countries like China the
u.s. Italy and Germany have this problem isn't otherwise good sign dangerously low fertility is side effect
of many good things increase education opportunities for women and health care it's a new kidding first
world problem there are many ways to offset the damage you can increase productivity jasa
immigration and or fertility but it's hard to find a solution that doesn't come with its own set of
problems many countries for example now offer incentives for having children one of the most generous
is Sweden or couples have the right to 480 days of paid maternity leave her child the downside
employers are more hesitant to hire young women who are far more likely to take those days off and it
doesn't help that iwan adjusted for inflation the cost of raising a child as a reason for decades babies just
can't compete with dogs Lina is already gone from issuing fines per second children to issuing checks but
people just don't seem to want them this paper predicts the new two child policy will only as you can
see there too big bowl jizz and its population here and hear the first is currently in its peak spending
years the 2nd right in the prime of it higher renting I tax contributing years it's no wonder China is seeing
massive economic growth but that's what makes a demographic crisis such an ugly one it happens very
slowly and then all red once remember this huge group of workers will soon and quiet suddenly retire as
they start waiting for the checks to arrive but the group responsible for writing those checks or at least
funding them is getting smaller and smaller the problem isn't just financial a single child must now care
for true parents and for grandparents the United Nations expects China's dependency ratio the number
of non working compared to working age people to increase at roughly the same rate as depends who's
population begin shrinking in 2011 and now says more adult diapers an infant once by 2050 China may
have more retirees then all of Germany Japan France and Britain worse the one child policy combined
with a cultural preference for males has created a massive gender and balance as a result if likely that by
2031 4th of Chinese men in there late 30's what have never married at a minimum an abundance of
forgotten young men will cause some social anxiety or possibly as some experts just serious conflict it
sounds a lot like the plot of a movie perhaps No Country for young men of course China is aware of the
problem but its fighting and inevitable demographic transition in the beginning for China the early 20th
century children are abundant because you can only expect a few to survive you don't have the
education or tools for family planning and because the best way to grow tomatoes is the first grow
children seriously for any sleep deprived parents watching this will be a shock but giving birth was once
the ultimate productivity hack before they were tractors there were children and then people stop dying
it really only takes a few improvements towels care for rapid reductions and mortality and that's how
the world grew from 1.6 to 6.1 billion people in one century that short window if you were people are
dying but everyone still having children but it is just a window after immortality drops fertility is right
behind it as industrial isation that brings rule workers to find jobs in the city children become less a
utility and more reliability the kind that screams and cries and generates student loan debt the same
goes the best contraceptive is economic development the fact that countries like tryna the US Italy in
Germany have this problem is in otherwise good sign dangerously low fertility is actually a side effect of
many good things increased education opportunities for women and health care it's a new kidding first
world problems there are many ways to offset the damage you can increase productivity taxes
immigration and or fertility but its hard to find a solution that doesn't come with its own set of problems
many countries for example now offer incentives for having children one of the most generous is
sleeping or couples have the right to 480 days of paid maternity leave her child the downside employers
are more hesitant tire young women or 4 more likely to take those days off and it doesn't out that even
adjusted for inflation the cost of raising a child has risen for decades babies just can't compete with dogs
China has already gone from issuing finds for second children to issuing check or people just don't seem
to want them this paper products the new to trial policy only increased Ryan is population from 1.4 to
1.45 billion and 2029 because the person is ideal family size is largely determined by their own to
generations of Chinese now see one child as the norm plus young people are pressured to work longer
and harder to keep up with the raising taxes and you did to support the older population none of this
means China can't come up with a solution in fact it has a few things going for it as people move to the
city though we come bigger contributors to the economy and today's young workers are far better
educated than those there replacing 11 years of schooling compared to just 6 there's also the bigger
Trent warden automation based economy which doesn't rely on a large number of workers that too has
the potential for chaos and even if it does manage to increase fertility remember that demographic
changes are slow children born today won't start contributing for at least 18 years whatever the
outcome it'll define China's role in the 21st century the one how policy will test China's national security
just as you're one password policy to threaten your security I know I know it's easy to use the same
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