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A forest in Newark, Vermont turns an impressive array of red and gold as October ushers in
cooler weather and shorter days. Climate change is making fall temperatures warmer, on
average, and disrupting the annual display of fall foliage in the eastern U.S.
P H O T O G R A P H B Y T AY F U N C O S K U N , A N A D O L U A G E N C Y, G E T T Y I M A G E S

ENVIRONMENT NEWS

Fall foliage was disrupted by

climate change. It might be the
new normal.
Throughout the eastern U.S., fall colors arrived behind schedule, which
scientists say is a sign of things to come.

BY SARAH GIBBENS

PUBLISHED NOVEMBER 25, 2021 • 10 MIN READ

Fall is a special time of year in the forests along the eastern seaboard, as
trees explode in brilliant shades of red and gold. The air is crisp, the days
are still warm, and the turning foliage offers an irresistible riot of color—
one that, by one rough estimate, generates as much as $30 billion a year in
tourism revenue from Maine to the Carolinas.

“The mountains here in general are gorgeous,” says Larry Deane, a

professional photographer who lives in the foothills of the Blue Ridge
Mountains outside Asheville, North Carolina. “You combine that with vivid
fall colors and it’s just sort of magical.” 
But fall is getting warmer as a result of climate change. LOGIN Renew SUBSCRIBE MENU

This past October was the world’s fourth warmest October in a 142-year
record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration. That’s no surprise: The eight warmest Octobers have come
in the last eight years. And the Northeast, which is most famous for fall
foliages, is warming faster than the rest of North America.

From Vermont to North Carolina, fall foliage appeared behind schedule

this year—continuing a long-term trend that, according to one recent study
of maples by researchers at George Mason University, has pushed the
appearance of fall colors back more than a month since the 19th century.
Temperature is not the only driver of that; precipitation or the lack of it,
extreme weather, and insect infestations all play a role. As climate change
affects all those factors, it’s making the timing of peak foliage harder to
predict.

In New York City's Central Park, people enjoy golden fall

colors in November. The city experienced warmer than
average fall temperatures, which scientists say will
continue in the future.
P H OTO G R A P H BY L I AO PA N , C H I N A N E W S
SERVICE , GETTY IMAGES
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What’s more, climate-related delays in leaf coloration are disrupting

annual cycles of growth and rest that trees undergo. What that means for
forests—how well trees grow, where they can live, and whether they can
keep storing carbon at the same rate—is still being sorted out by scientists.

“We ought to be concerned potentially, not just about timing of change for
autumn, but whether or not it portends some forest collapse,” says George
Mason University ecologist Rebecca Forkner. “While nobody wants to be
the ‘sky is falling’ kind of person, we do understand these changes are the
plants telling us something is not right.”

Why trees need rest

Like people, trees must prepare for the cold, dark winter. All spring and
summer, their leaves produce a green pigment called chlorophyll that
captures sunlight, providing trees the energy to create the sugars and
carbohydrates they need to grow and survive.

As temperatures drop and days grow shorter, signaling an end to the

growing season, trees respond by ending chlorophyll production and
absorbing any remaining nutrients—in effect laying down stores for
winter. 

But lurking under that chlorophyll all spring and summer are orange and
yellow-hued chemicals, which are unveiled as trees begin to go dormant.
In addition, shorter, colder days prompt some tree species, including red
and sugar maples, to produce red anthocyanins. Scientists think these red
compounds are like a leaf’s winter coat, helping stave off the cold and
allowing trees to absorb any last nutrients from the leaves before a cold
snap kills the leaves.
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In Wernersville, Pennsylvania, maple leaves turn a shade of rust as October brings cooler
temperatures. Red leaves result from chemicals called anthocyanins, which help trees absorb
nutrients in leaves before winter.
P H O T O G R A P H B Y B E N H A S T Y, M E D I A N E W S G R O U P, R E A D I N G E A G L E , G E T T Y
IMAGES

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The process leading up to shedding is known as leaf senescence. Climate

change is disrupting it in some species more than others, with unknown
consequences. 

“Plants have this amazing capacity to cope,” says Forkner, but scientists
don’t yet know the limits of trees’ ability to adapt. “If they’re not getting
their nutrients back, we could see some problems in our forest, but it’s too
early to know. We don’t have enough people researching it.” 

In Maine’s Acadia National Park, scientists have noted a possible link

between warm nights in September and delayed fall colors.

“This is the biggest signal we have seen,” says Stephanie Spera, an

environmental scientist at the University of Richmond who is studying leaf
changes in the park. “The whole season is being jeopardized. LIOthink
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getting a lot shorter. Spring is starting earlier. Everything is shifting."

In the past century, the park has warmed by 3.4°F. Trees and other plant
life are feeling this change. One out of every five plant species documented
in the park a century ago can no longer be found today.

Sorting out the changes in trees

To gain historical perspective on changes in fall foliage, Forkner and Alexis
Garretson, now a doctoral student at the Jackson Laboratory in Maine,
turned to herbaria—the plant collections maintained by universities and
other institutions. Sifting through digitized records of maple tree leaves
collected from the central and eastern U.S. and dating back to the 19th
century, they found that the first appearance of fall leaf color had shifted
an average of about six hours a year since 1880. Over the course of more
than a century, those delays added up to more than a month. 

“Both of us expected to see a change, and a pretty large one, but both of us
were surprised that the signal was so strong,” says Garretson.  

The pair also examined the leaves for damage by pathogens or plant-eating
animals. They found that the extent of damage has increased over time. It
seems to be associated with an increase in summer drought—and also with
leaves changing color later but falling off trees earlier: Damaged leaves
tended to fall as much as three weeks earlier than undamaged ones.  

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With temperatures staying warmer longer, and with spring arriving earlier,
trees are experiencing longer growing periods with shorter transition times
between warm days and cold frosts. In effect fall is getting shorter. One
concern is that trees may not have a chance to finish absorbing the sugars
and carbohydrates that remain in their green-tinted leaves before the first
winter frost. 

“The harm could come if you get a sudden freeze. The trees may not be
acclimated, and the leaves may fall off before they’ve withdrawn all their
nutrients,” warns Howard Neufeld, a biologist at AppalachianL OState
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University.

That could impact how well a tree grows in the following spring. For a tree,
the color change process is “how it goes to the grocery store and gets all the
food it needs for next year,” says Forkner. “If it doesn’t do that, there are
consequences for the lifespan.” 

How climate change affects trees, in turn, has a feedback effect on climate.
Forests absorb an estimated 30 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions
released every year, and if their health wanes, so too might their climate
benefits. 

“These ecosystems are buffering us from the worst impacts of climate

change,” says Mukund Palat Roa, a climate scientist at Columbia
University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who is monitoring the
timing of fall leaves to better understand how changes might impact the
carbon cycle. “If the ability of forests to do that decreases, then what
happens to the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere?”

Roa says it’s unclear just how much carbon trees can absorb; a longer
growing period may not equate to a bigger climate benefit. One recent
study of trees in Europe found, as Forkner and Garretson did, that climate
change is causing some trees to drop their leaves earlier than they used to.
That could reduce the amount of carbon that forests remove from the
atmosphere.

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“Very severe droughts or stress events, makes the tree shut down more
quickly,” says Paul Schaber, a Vermont-based plant physiologist with the
USDA Forest Service. “If it is just very, very dry, they’ll drop their leaves in
August.”

A glimpse of changes to come 

Some trees may be more successful at adapting to climate change than
others, and as the less adaptable trees die and recede from the landscape,
fall colors may also change. Trees that produce red pigmentsLtend
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more northern ranges, and some scientists speculate that the fall color ADVERTISEMENT

palette could become more golden in southern latitudes. 

“Because of warming in New England, sugar maples will shift north to find
cooler temperatures. Instead of Vermont maple syrup, we might have to
think of Toronto maple syrup,” says Neufeld.

For now, falls will certainly keep getting warmer—just like springs,
summers, and winters. 

“This fall is not just a kind of one-off exceptionally warm event. It’s part of
a continuing trend we’ve seen over the past several decades. And that’s
what climate change is about—individual events that are part of a longer-
term trend,” says Benjamin Cook, a climate scientist at Columbia
University. “This fall was pretty warm in New York. In 30 years, it might
seem like a cold memory.”

The annual ritual of admiring fall foliage is a good chance for people to
reflect on that trend, Neufeld says. “Fall has the best weather. It's cool, it's
crisp out. Fall color is big time tourism,” he says. “If more people get out
and see nature and appreciate its fragility, they might be more conducive
to doing something to protect nature.”

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