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Parasitic Fish: Case Study
Parasitic Fish: Case Study
Case Study
Example 9.3 beginning on page 213 of the text describes an experiment
in which fish are placed in a large tank for a period of time and some
Probability and Conditional Probability are eaten by large birds of prey. The fish are categorized by their level of
parasitic infection, either uninfected, lightly infected, or highly infected. It
is to the parasites advantage to be in a fish that is eaten, as this provides
Bret Hanlon and Bret Larget
an opportunity to infect the bird in the parasites next stage of life. The
Department of Statistics
observed proportions of fish eaten are quite different among the categories.
University of Wisconsin—Madison
Uninfected Lightly Infected Highly Infected Total
September 27–29, 2011 Eaten 1 10 37 48
Not eaten 49 35 9 93
Total 50 45 46 141
The proportions of eaten fish are, respectively, 1/50 = 0.02, 10/45 = 0.222,
and 37/46 = 0.804.
The proportion of bitten cows among those in estrous is 15/22 = 0.682 while
the proportion of bitten cows among those not in estrous is 6/328 = 0.018.
Probability Case Studies Infected Fish and Predation 3 / 33 Probability Case Studies Infected Fish and Predation 4 / 33
Questions The Big Picture
Are the probabilities of being bitten different for cows in estrous or When comparing two categorical variables, it is useful to summarize
not? the data in tables.
How do we estimate the difference in probabilities of being bitten? Data in the tables can be used to calculate observed proportions
How do we estimate the odds ratio? sampled from different populations.
Here, the odds of a cow in estrous being bitten are roughly 2 to 1, We may have interest in estimating differences between population
while the odds of a cow not in estrous being bitten are roughly 2 to probabilities.
100, so the odds ratio is about 100 times larger to be bitten for cows We may wish to test if population proportions are different.
in estrous compared to those not.
We may wish to test if two categorical variables are independent.
How do we quantify uncertainty in this estimate?
Probability Case Studies Infected Fish and Predation 5 / 33 Probability The Big Picture 6 / 33
Ω = {(1, R), (1, W ), (1, B), (2, R), (2, W ), (2, B)}
P(Ac ) = 1 − P(A)
Example
The probability that either Bucket 1 is chosen or the ball is red is
Example
P Bucket 1 or Red = P Bucket 1 + P Red Let A = {Ball is Red}.
Earlier, we found that P(A) = 0.1.
−P Bucket 1 and Red
The probability of not getting a red ball is then
= 0.5 + 0.1 − 0.05 = 0.55
P(Ac ) = 1 − P(A) = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9
Example
Definition Define W to be the number of white balls sampled.
A random variable is a rule that attaches a number to each W has possible values 0 and 1.
elementary outcome.
As each elementary outcome has a probability, the random variable
specifies how the total probability of one in Ω should be distributed P(W = 0) = P (1, R) or (1, B) or (2, R) or (2, B)
on the real line, which is called distribution of the random variable.
= 0.05 + 0.15 + 0.05 + 0.25 = 0.5
For a discrete random variable, all of the probability is distributed in
discrete chunks along the real line. P(W = 1) = P((W = 0)c ) = 1 − P(W = 0) = 0.5.
A full description of the distribution of a discrete random variable is:
Here is the probability distribution of W .
I a list of all possible values of the random variable, and
I the probability of each possible value. w 0 1
P(W = w ) 0.5 0.5
Definition
The conditional probability of an event given another is the Example
probability of the event given that the other event has occurred.
Define events B1 and B2 to mean that Bucket 1 or 2 was selected and
If P(B) > 0, let events R, W , and B indicate if the color of the ball is red, white,
P(A and B) or black.
P(A | B) =
P(B)
By the description of the problem, P(R | B1 ) = 0.1, for example.
With more formal notation, Using the formula,
P(A ∩ B)
P(A | B) = , if P(B) > 0. P(R ∩ B1 )
P(B) P(R | B1 ) =
P(B1 )
The vertical bar | represents conditioning and is read given. 0.05
= = 0.1
P(A | B) is read 0.5
The probability of A given B.
Definition Example
Events A and B are independent if information about one does not The events R that a red ball is selected and B1 that Bucket 1 is
affect the other. selected are independent.
That is, We can show
P(A | B) = P(A) P(R ∩ B1 ) = P(R)P(B1 )
Example Example
In the example, B1 and B2 form a partition as exactly one bucket is For example, the probability of a black ball is
selected.
P(B) = P(B1 )P(B | B1 ) + P(B2 )P(B | B2 )
Also, R, W , and B form a partition as the ball must have exactly one
color. = (0.5)(0.3) + (0.5)(0.5) = 0.4
Probability Probability Independence 25 / 33 Probability Probability Law of Total Probability 26 / 33
Problem 2 Problem 3
Problem
A species of plant was present at a site in northern Wisconsin in 1950
Problem and appeared in ten percent of randomly located quadrats. If the plant
The prevalence of a certain type of cancer among women aged 50–60 is 1 in is present in 2010, it has a ten percent chance of appearing in a quadrat
150. A blood test will be positive 98% of the time if the cancer is present, independently. However, if the plant has gone extinct at this site, it has
but is also positive 7% of the time if the cancer is not present. no chance of appearing. Before seeing new 2010 data, an ecologist believes
that there is a 30 percent chance that the plant is extinct at this site.
1 In a routine check-up, a 55-year-old woman receives a positive blood
test. What is the probability that she has this type of cancer? 1 Given that the plant is present at the site, what is the probability that
the plant is not present in any of a random sample of five quadrats?
2 How would you interpret this calculation if the test were ordered
because of the presence of other symptoms associated with the 2 What is the unconditional probability that the plant is not present in
disease? any of a random sample of five quadrats?
3 Given that the plant is not present in any of a random sample of five
quadrats, what is the probability that the plant is extinct at this site?
4 What if the same is true for 20 quadrats?