Nama Ryas Ramzi

NIM 2018530025

TAHUN JMLH PELANGGAN Berdasarkan data tersebut, carilah jumlah pelanggan tahun 20
dan 2020 dengan cara:
2004 15,000
2005 17,300 1. Semi Average Methode
2006 20,000 2. Least Square Methode
2007 24,000 3. Quadratic Trend Methode
2008 31,000 4. Exponential Trend Methode
2009 36,500
2010 40,100 183,900 366,500
2011 43,000
2012 46,500
2013 49,000
2014 50,000
2015 52,000
2016 54,000
2017 56,000
2018 59,000

1. S E M I RATA-RATA

NILAI X UTK NILAI X UTK

K TAHUN JMLH PELANGGAN RATA-RATA THN DSR THN DSR
2004 2012
2004 15,000 -3 -10
2005 17,300 -2 -9
2006 20,000 -1 -8
K1 2007 24,000 26,271.43 0 -7
2008 31,000 1 -6
2009 36,500 2 -5
2010 40,100 3 -4
2012 46,500 4 -3
2013 49,000 5 -2
2014 50,000 6 -1
K2 2015 52,000 52,357.14 7 0
2016 54,000 8 1
2017 56,000 9 2
2018 59,000 10 3
2019 11 4
2020 12 5

2. LEAST SQUARE METHODE

 TAHUN JMLH PELANGGAN X XY X²
2004 15,000 -13 - 195,000 169
2005 17,300 -11 - 190,300 121
2006 20,000 -9 - 180,000 81
2007 24,000 -7 - 168,000 49
2008 31,000 -5 - 155,000 25
2009 36,500 -3 - 109,500 9
2010 40,100 -1 - 40,100 1
2011 43,000 1 43,000 1
2012 46,500 3 139,500 9 b = 2.414.600/1.135
2013 49,000 5 245,000 25
2.127,40
2014 50,000 7 350,000 49
2015 52,000 9 468,000 81
2016 54,000 11 594,000 121
2017 56,000 13 728,000 169
2018 59,000 15 885,000 225
JUMLAH 593,400 2,414,600 1,135

3. QUADRATIC TREND METHODE

TAHUN JMLH PELANGGAN X XY X² X²Y

2004 15,000 -13 - 195,000 169 2,535,000
2005 17,300 -11 - 190,300 121 2,093,300
2006 20,000 -9 - 180,000 81 1,620,000
2007 24,000 -7 - 168,000 49 1,176,000
2008 31,000 -5 - 155,000 25 775,000
2009 36,500 -3 - 109,500 9 328,500
2010 40,100 -1 - 40,100 1 40,100
2011 43,000 1 43,000 1 43,000
2012 46,500 3 139,500 9 418,500
2013 49,000 5 245,000 25 1,225,000
2014 50,000 7 350,000 49 2,450,000
2015 52,000 9 468,000 81 4,212,000
2016 54,000 11 594,000 121 6,534,000
2017 56,000 13 728,000 169 9,464,000
2018 59,000 15 885,000 225 13,275,000
JUMLAH 593,400 2,414,600 1,135 46,189,400

4. EXPONENTIAL TREND METHODE

TAHUN JMLH PELANGGAN X LnY X² X LnY
2004 15,000 -13 10 169 - 125
2005 17,300 -11 10 121 - 107
2006 20,000 -9 10 81 - 89
2007 24,000 -7 10 49 - 71
2008 31,000 -5 10 25 - 52
2009 36,500 -3 11 9- 32
2010 40,100 -1 11 1- 11
2011 43,000 1 11 1 11
2012 46,500 3 11 9 32
2013 49,000 5 11 25 54
2014 50,000 7 11 49 76
2015 52,000 9 11 81 98
2016 54,000 11 11 121 120
2017 56,000 13 11 169 142
2018 59,000 15 11 225 165
JUMLAH 593,400 158 1,135 211
rilah jumlah pelanggan tahun 2019

26,271 3,260.71 11
Menghitung nilai perubahan

b= (𝐾2 −𝐾1)/(𝑇𝑎ℎ𝑢𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑠𝑎𝑟 2 Jadi persamaan pelanggan adalah:

−𝑇𝑎ℎ𝑢𝑛 𝑑𝑎𝑠𝑎𝑟 1) Y' = 26.271,43 + 3.260,71X, dengan tahun dasar 2004
Y' = 52.357,14 + 3.260,71X, dengan tahun dasar 2012
b= (52.357,14
−26.271,43)/(12 − 4) =
3.260,71
Perkiraan pelanggan pada tahun 2019 dan 2020 Apabila menggunakan tahun dasar 2004
Apabila menggunakan tahun dasar 2004 Y' = 26.271,43 + 3.260,71
Y' = 26.271,43 + 3.260,71 Y' = 26.271,43 + 3.260,71 (12)
Y' = 26.271,43 + 3.260,71 (11) 2 Y' = 39,128.52
0
Y' = 35,868 1 Apabila menggunakan tahun dasar 2012
Apabila menggunakan tahun dasar 2012 9 Y' = 52.357,14 + 3.260,71
Y' = 52.357,14 + 3.260,71 Y' = 52.357,14 + 3.260,71 (5)
Y' = 52.357,14 + 3.260,71 (4) Y' = 16,303.55
Y' = 13,042.84
 39,560 2,127.40
a = Ʃ𝑌/𝑛 Jadi persamaan tren adalah
Y' = 39.560 + 2.127,40 X

a = 593.400/15 =
39.560 Perkiraan pelangaan pada tahun 2019 dan 2020

b = Ʃ𝑋𝑌/Ʃ𝑋² Y' = 39.560 + 2.127,40 X

19
Y' = 39.560 + 2.127,40 (17)

20
Y' = 75,725.81
b = 2.414.600/1.135 =
2.127,40 Y' = 39.560 + 2.127,40 X

20
Y' = 39.560 + 2.127,40 (19)

20
Y' = 79,980.62

36,165.81 4,913 40,420.62 6,498

38,176
2,127.40 18
X^4 Y' = a + bX + cX² Jadi persamaan trennya
28561 Y' = a + bX + cX²
14641 a = (Ʃ𝑌 (Ʃ𝑋^4 ) − Y' = 38.176 + 2.127,40X + 18X²
6561 〖 (Ʃ𝑋^2 𝑌) (Ʃ𝑋 〗 ^2))/(𝑛
2401 (Ʃ𝑋^4 ) −(Ʃ𝑋^2 )^2 ) Perkiraan pelanggan pada tahun 20
625 a = ((593.400) (156.367) −(46.189.400)
81 (1.135))/(15 (156.367) −(1.135)^2 ) = 38.176 Y' = 38.176 + 2.127,40X + 18X²
1 b = (Ʃ𝑋𝑌 )/(Ʃ𝑋^2 ) Y' = 38.176 + 2.127,40 (17) + 18 (17
1 Y' = 38.176 + 36.165,81 + 4.913
81 Y' =
625 b = (2.414.600 )/1.135 =
2401 2.127,40 Y' = 38.176 + 2.127,40X + 18X²
6561 Y' = 38.176 + 2.127,40 (19) + 18 (19
c = (𝑛 (Ʃ𝑋^2 𝑌) − 〖 (Ʃ𝑋^2 )
14641 Y' = 38.176 + 40.420,62 + 6.498
(Ʃ𝑌 〗 ^ ))/(𝑛 (Ʃ𝑋^4 ) −
28561 Y' =
(Ʃ𝑋^2 )^2 )
50625 c = (15 (46.189.400) −(1.135)
156,367 (593.400))/(15 (156.367) −(1.135)^2 ) =
18

Y' = a (1 + b)²
n dasar 2004
n dasar 2012

gunakan tahun dasar 2004

+ 3.260,71 (12) 2
0
gunakan tahun dasar 2012 2
0
+ 3.260,71 (5)
adi persamaan trennya
' = a + bX + cX²
' = 38.176 + 2.127,40X + 18X²

erkiraan pelanggan pada tahun 2019 dan 2020

' = 38.176 + 2.127,40X + 18X²

' = 38.176 + 2.127,40 (17) + 18 (17)²
20
19

' = 38.176 + 36.165,81 + 4.913

79,255.28

' = 38.176 + 2.127,40X + 18X²

' = 38.176 + 2.127,40 (19) + 18 (19)²
20
20

' = 38.176 + 40.420,62 + 6.498

85,095.08
 0.32 7 49 0
15.68
12,892.90 10,164.90 -5
13,911.90 17 11,279.50
14,190.90 289 12,254.90
14,850.10 12,425.50
55,845.80 46,124.80 11,531.2
13,961.45

4913 50
-9 81
52,357.14
26,271.43 205
26,085.71 3,260.71 212
236
5 653
10.42
176 186.42 932.1 228.1
1108.1
 625

19
361 6498 -1.5 5
213.75
92.5

-9 -450

217.67 41.67 10.42