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Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions
Volume 8, Issue 4, August, 2016

Citation: Abbas T, Nabi G, Boota MW, et al., 2016. Uncertainty analysis of runoff and sedimentation in a forested watershed using sequential
uncertainty fitting method. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 8(4): 0297–0310. DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1226.2016.00297.

Uncertainty analysis of runoff and sedimentation in a forested

watershed using sequential uncertainty fitting method

Tanveer Abbas 1*, Ghulam Nabi 1, Muhammad W. Boota 1, Fiaz Hussain1,

Muhammad I. Azam 1, HuiJun Jin 2, Muhammad Faisal 1

1. Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Lahore, Lahore
54890, Pakistan
2. State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soils Engineering, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research
Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China

*Correspondence to: Tanveer Abbas, Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and
Technology Lahore. G.T. Road, Lahore 54890, Pakistan. E-mail: tanveer.abbas6@gmail.com

Received: April 9, 2016 Accepted: June 1, 2016

ABSTRACT

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was implemented in a small forested watershed of the Soan River Basin in
northern Pakistan through application of the sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) method to investigate the associated
uncertainty in runoff and sediment load estimation. The model was calibrated for a 10-year period (1991–2000) with an
initial 4-year warm-up period (1987–1990), and was validated for the subsequent 10-year period (2001–2010). The
model evaluation indices R2 (the coefficient of determination), NS (the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency), and PBIAS (percent
bias) for stream flows simulation indicated that there was a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows.
To assess the uncertainty in the model outputs, p-factor (a 95% prediction uncertainty, 95PPU) and r-factors (average
wideness width of the 95PPU band divided by the standard deviation of the observed values) were taken into account.
The 95PPU band bracketed 72% of the observed data during the calibration and 67% during the validation. The r-factor
was 0.81 during the calibration and 0.68 during the validation. For monthly sediment yield, the model evaluation co-
efficients (R2 and NS) for the calibration were computed as 0.81 and 0.79, respectively; for validation, they were 0.78
and 0.74, respectively. Meanwhile, the 95PPU covered more than 60% of the observed sediment data during calibration
and validation. Moreover, improved model prediction and parameter estimation were observed with the increased
number of iterations. However, the model performance became worse after the fourth iterations due to an unreasonable
parameter estimation. Overall results indicated the applicability of the SWAT model with moderate levels of uncertainty
during the calibration and high levels during the validation. Thus, this calibrated SWAT model can be used for as-
sessment of water balance components, climate change studies, and land use management practices.
Keywords: hydrological modeling; uncertainty analysis; SWAT model; the Soan River Basin; SUFI-2 method

1 Introduction on the planet Earth. It is a vital factor for economic

development and augmenting the growth of agricul-
Water is the most precious and primary natural ture and industry, especially in the perspective of
resource and a major constituent of all living matter rapidly increasing population and urbanization. Many