ERGONOMIC DESIGN

Poznan University of Technology, Poznan, Poland

Modern Water-Resource Management:

Application of Novel OR-Analytics
Snow Classification on Sentinel 2 Imagery by MARS

Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber a,d,e Semih Kuter b

Zuhal Akyürek c,e Selma Gütmen a,d
aPoznan
University of Technology, Faculty of Engineering Management, Chair ofDepartment of Marketing and Economic Engineering, Poznan, Poland
bÇankırı Karatekin University, Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Çankırı, Turkey
cMiddle East Technical University (METU), Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Ankara, Turkey
dMETU, Institute of Applied Mathematics, Ankara, Turkey
eMETU, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Department of Geodetic and Geographic Information Technologies, Ankara, Turkey
 Outline
 Introduction
 Global Challenges
 Role of Operational Research for addressing Global Challenges
 Significance of Snow Cover Mapping for Water-Resource Management

 Our Tool supported by Applied Mathematics and Modern Methods of Continuous Optimization
 Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines – MARS

 Satellite Dataset
 Area of Study
 Sentinel 2 Imagery

 Results

 Other Example Studies

 Implementations of MARS, CMARS, RMARS and RCMARS

 Conclusion and Outlook

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Global Challenges
 Global warming, drastic changes in weather and climate,
devastating impacts of natural disasters (e.g., typhoon attacks,
floods, tsunamis), downsizing in agricultural areas, expanding
urbanization, pollution of world’s natural resources, increasing
scarcity in fresh water supplies, etc.

Global Warming

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Global Challenges
 Global warming, drastic changes in weather and climate,
devastating impacts of natural disasters (e.g., typhoon attacks,
floods, tsunamis), downsizing in agricultural areas, expanding
urbanization, pollution of world’s natural resources, increasing
scarcity in fresh water supplies, etc.

Global Warming
Typhoon Attacks

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Global Challenges
 Global warming, drastic changes in weather and climate,
devastating impacts of natural disasters (e.g., typhoon attacks,
floods, tsunamis), downsizing in agricultural areas, expanding
urbanization, pollution of world’s natural resources, increasing
scarcity in fresh water supplies, etc.

Global Warming
Tsunamis
Typhoon Attacks

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Global Challenges
 Global warming, drastic changes in weather and climate,
devastating impacts of natural disasters (e.g., typhoon attacks,
floods, tsunamis), downsizing in agricultural areas, expanding
urbanization, pollution of world’s natural resources, increasing
scarcity in fresh water supplies, etc.

Global
TyphoonWarming
Tsunamis
Attacks
Floods

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Global Challenges
 Global warming, drastic changes in weather and climate,
devastating impacts of natural disasters (e.g., typhoon attacks,
floods, tsunamis), downsizing in agricultural areas, expanding
urbanization, pollution of world’s natural resources, increasing
scarcity in fresh water supplies, etc.

Global
UrbanizationWarming
Tsunamis
Typhoon Attacks
and
Floods Pollution

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Global Challenges
 Global warming, drastic changes in weather and climate,
devastating impacts of natural disasters (e.g., typhoon attacks,
floods, tsunamis), downsizing in agricultural areas, expanding
urbanization, pollution of world’s natural resources, increasing
scarcity in fresh water supplies, etc.

Water
Global
Typhoon
UrbanizationScarcity
Warming
Tsunamis
Attacks
and
Floods Pollution

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 OR & Sustainable Development
 In parallel with recent developments in information
technologies, more computer demanding algorithms have
started to involve in almost all scientific, economic and
engineering applications.
 Gigantic and continuously growing supply of information by
all kinds of measurement devices Big Data …

Let us position the machine learning issues within the areas

of data mining and model optimization, and elaborate our
work in the area of OR.

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OR & Sustainable Development
 Operational Research & Sustainable Development

 Analytics

 Management Science

 Data Mining

 Deep Learning

 Inverse Problems

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OR & Sustainable Development
 “Sustainable development is development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs.”
(United Nations Brundtland Commission, 1987)

 “Sustainable development is improving the quality of human

life while living within the carrying capacity of supporting
ecosystems.”
(World Conservation Union, United Nations Environment
Programme, WorldWide Fund for Nature, 1991)

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OR & Sustainable Development
 To deal with Global Challenges
 Early Warning and Management

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Snow Cover Mapping
 Snow can cover up to 40% of the Earth’s land surface during
the Northern Hemisphere winter.
 The extent and variability of seasonal snow cover are
important parameters in the climate system, due to their
effects on energy and moisture budgets, and because surface
temperature is highly dependent on the presence or absence
of snow cover.

MODIS image in February 2004 (NASA)

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Snow Cover Mapping
 Thus, snow-cover trends serve as key indicators of
climate change.

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Snow Cover Mapping
 As a frozen-water reservoir, snow holds precipitation until
snowmelt runoff is released. Snow is essential for water
supply of more than one sixth of world's population that
relies on fresh water from seasonal and glacial snowmelt.

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Snow Cover Mapping
 Runoff from snow supplies the necessary water for sustaining
forest ecosystems in watersheds, too.
 However, snowmelt runoff can also pose a flooding hazard
due to its rapid release during spring.

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Snow Cover Mapping
 Water Management
 Household, Drinking, Cooking, Cleaning Water, Agriculture, Energy and
Industry, Tourism, Sports, etc.

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Snow Cover Mapping
 Continuous monitoring of snow for developing countries:
 http://ifors.org/developing_countries/index.php?title=Main_Page.

 Snow Extent Variability in Lesotho Derived from MODIS Data (2000–2014)

 http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/8/6/448.

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Snow Cover Mapping
 As a result, comprehensive understanding of present and
future climate, water cycle, and ecological changes requires
continuous and accurate assessment of seasonal snow cover.
 Remote Sensing (RS) of snow cover by
Earth-observing satellites:

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MARS
 MARS – Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines
 A state-of-the-art nonparametric regression procedure introduced by
Jerome Friedman in 1991.
 Expansions of the truncated piecewise linear Basis Functions (BFs):
Reflected Pair
τ ( x   ) ( x   ) 
 x   , if x   ,
 x    
 0, otherwise.
  x, if x   ,
  x   
 0, otherwise.
τ

 General model: • y: response variable,

• x = (x1, x2,…,xp)T: vector of predictors,
y  f ( x)   • ε: observation error with zero mean and
finite variance.
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MARS
 Can only piecewise linear functions be formed?
 Reflected pairs can be multiplied together to form nonlinear
functions:

( x1  1) (1  x2 )  ( x1  1) ( x2  1)

e.g., interaction of (x1-1)+ with (1-x2)+ and (x2 -1)+ forming higher-order terms.
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MARS

Tensor products of univariate Spline fitting in

spline functions higher dimensions

  
 Multivariate spline BFs: Km
Bm  x  :  s m  x m    m
j j j
j 1
M
f  x   0    m Bm  x ,
m 1
where
 Km : total number of truncated linear functions multiplied in mth BF,
 x m : input variable of kth truncated linear function in mth BF,
j
  : knot value for x m ,
 m

 s m  1.
j j

 j

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 MARS

 Forward Pass: The product resulting in the largest decrease

in RSS continuously added into the current model.
 Forward Pass:
 Backward Pass: Removing BFs giving the smallest increase
in RSS.
 MARS algorithm can be modified to handle multi-
response problems, i.e., classification tasks. In this
approach, the response, Y, has k columns and the MARS
algorithm generates k simultaneous models (Hastie et al.,
2009). 22 /52
Satellite Dataset
 ESA Sentinel 2
 Sentinel 2 is the name of two multispectral instruments, i.e., Sentinel 2A
and 2B, developed and operated by European Space Agency. The instrument
has 13 spectral bands ranging from 442 to 2202 nm at three different spatial
resolutions, i.e., 4 visible and near-infrared bands at 10 m, 6 red-
edge/shortwave-infrared bands at 20 m, and 3 atmospheric correction bands
at 60 m.

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Satellite Dataset
 Study Area: North-Eastern Turkey
 Sentinel 2 tile T37TFE

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Satellite Dataset
 Since modeling of snow-covered area in the mountainous
regions of Eastern Turkey, as being one of the major
headwaters of Euphrates–Tigris basin, has significant
importance in order to forecast snowmelt discharge
especially for energy production, flood control,
irrigation and reservoir operation studies, three Sentinel
2 T37TFE tiles taken in 29 Dec 2017, 19 March 2018
and 8 April 2018 are selected as dataset.

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Satellite Dataset
 December 2017, March 2018 and April 2018 images
of the area (from left to right).

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Satellite Dataset
 December 2017: Ice, Land, Snow and Water

Snow

Land

Water body Frozen water body

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Satellite Dataset
 March 2018: Cloud, Ice, Land, Snow and Water

Clouds

Snow

Cumulus clouds Land

Water body
Frozen water body

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Satellite Dataset
 April 2018: Cloud, Land, Snow and Water

Snow
Land

Cumulus clouds

Water body

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Satellite Dataset
 Reflectance values of Sentinel 2 bands 2-7, band 8A, 11
and 12, as well as two auxilary variables directly derived
from these bands, namely, Normalized Difference Snow
Index (NDSI) and Normalized Difference Water Index
(NDWI), are used as predictor variables (i.e., 11
predictors in total).
 Two basic MARS parameters to control the model tuning
process: 1) maximum allowed numbers of BFs in the forward
pass (max_BFs), 2) maximum allowed degree of interactions
between predictor variables (max_INT).

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Satellite Dataset
29 December 2017 8 April 2018

Class Label Training Test Class Label Training Test

Ice 2,434 362 Cloud 8,196 757
Land 19,313 1,039 Land 13,265 534
Snow 12,102 1,136 Snow 6,268 568
Water 3,169 542 Water 2,568 594
TOTAL 37,018 3,079 TOTAL 30,297 2,453

19 March 2018 max_INT = 1, 2, 3

max_BF = 5, 10, 15,..., 200
Class Label Training Test
Cloud 10,255 786
Band 3-Band 11
Ice 2,466 620 NDSISentinel 2 
Band 3+Band 11
Land 12,893 1,744
Snow 12,621 1,827 Band 3-Band 8A
NDWISentinel 2 
Water 2,325 675 Band 3+Band 8A
TOTAL 40,560 5,652
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Results
 Basic classification accuracy metrics are derived from the
related error matrices. Producer’s accuracy (PA), user’s
accuracy (UA) and overall accuracy (OA) values of both
MARS and Maximum Likelihood (ML) are shown
(December 2017):

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Results
 Basic classification accuracy metrics are derived from the
related error matrices. Producer’s accuracy (PA), user’s
accuracy (UA) and overall accuracy (OA) values of both
MARS and Maximum Likelihood (ML) are shown
(March 2018):

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Results
 Basic classification accuracy metrics are derived from the
related error matrices. Producer’s accuracy (PA), user’s
accuracy (UA) and overall accuracy (OA) values of both
MARS and Maximum Likelihood (ML) are shown (April
2018):

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 Results
 Ice-Snow misclassification: As visually interpreted from
Dec 2017 image, misclassification of ice occurs in both
MARS and ML; however, MARS performance in
resolving the confusion between ice and snow classes is
much better than the ML’s.
Frozen water body

Water body

Land and Snow

RGB false-color image MARS image ML image 35 /52

 Results
 Land features obscured by cloud shadows: As seen in Apr
2018 image, MARS over-performs in correctly labeling
land, snow and water features obscured by cloud
shadows.

Water body obscured by cloud shadow

Land and snow obscured by

cloud shadow

Cloud
shadow

Snow Snow underestimated

RGB false-color image MARS image ML image 36 /52

Other Example Studies
 CMARS – Conic Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines
 Alternative method to MARS by utilizing the theories of statistical
learning, inverse problems and multiobjective optimization.
 Modern techniques of continuous optimization and
Conic Quadratic Programming (CQP).
 Instead of backward step of MARS:

PRSS with the BFs built up during

the forward step of MARS

Penalty terms added to the least-

squares estimation to control the
Lack-of-Fit
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 Other Example Studies
 PRSS summed up during the forward pass of MARS:
M max
PRSS :   yi  f  xi     
N 2

 m  
2

  r ,s m  ,
 
2
 2
G
m B
h m
d h m

i 1 m 1  1 r s Qm
 1 , 2 
T r , sVm

 where
 Vm : variable set related with the mth BF,
 hm : vector of variables contributing to the mth BF,
 m : penalty parameters (trade-off between accuracy & complexity),
 Qm : integration domains,
 Gr , s Bm  h  :   Bm  1 hr  2 hs   h  for   1 ,  2  ,
 m   m  m m T

 : 1   2 , 1 ,  2  0,1.

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 Other Example Studies
 Trade-off between accuracy and complexity established
through the penalty parameters m ,

M max  N 1Km
PRSS  y  B  g   2   m 
PRSS 2
approximated as L2imm2 ,
m 1 i 1

 where
 y : the vector of responses,
 B  g : an (N × (Mmax+1))-matrix,
 2
: Euclidian norm.

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Other Example Studies
 One penalty parameter employed rather than using distinct
penalty parameters:   m :  2.

PRSS  y  B  g   2   L
2 2
Then, 2

 where
 L : a diagonal ((Mmax+1) × (Mmax+1))-matrix,
 λ : an ((Mmax+1) × 1)-parameter vector.
A classical
PRSS problem Tikhonov Regularization (TR)
problem with φ>0, φ=ϕ2
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Other Example Studies
 TR problem treated by CQP with a convenient choice of
bound Z  R :
minimize h
h ,

subject to y  B  g   2
 h, L 2
 Z

 CQP re-written as:

minimize cT x
x

subject to Gi x  gi 2
 piT x  qi 1, 2, ,k

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Other Example Studies
 Quality management in production:

Weber, G.-W., Batmaz, İ., Köksal, G., Taylan, P. and Yerlikaya- Özkurt, F. (2011).
CMARS: A new contribution to nonparametric regression with multivariate
adaptive regression splines supported by continuous optimization. Inverse Problems
in Science and Engineering, 20, 371-400.
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Other Example Studies
 Modeling of precipitation:

Özmen, A., Batmaz, İ. and Weber, G.-W. (2014). Precipitation Modeling by

Polyhedral RCMARS and Comparison with MARS and CMARS. Environmental
Modeling & Assessment, 19(5), 425-435.

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Other Example Studies
 Predicting credit-default possibilities:

Alp, Ö. S., Büyükbebeci, E., İşcanoğlu Çekiç, A., Özkurt, F. Y., Taylan, P. and
Weber, G.-W. (2011). CMARS and GAM & CQP-Modern optimization methods
applied to international credit default prediction. Journal of Computational and
Applied Mathematics, 235, 4639-4651.

Weber, G.-W., Çavuşoğlu, Z. and Özmen, A. (2012). Predicting default

probabilities in emerging markets by new conic generalized partial linear models
and their optimization. Optimization: A Journal of Mathematical Programming and
Operations Research, 61, 443-457.
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Other Example Studies
 Predicting ground motion and earthquakes:

Yerlikaya-Özkurt, F., Askan, A. and Weber, G.-W. (2014). An alternative

approach to the ground motion prediction problem by a non-parametric adaptive
regression method. Engineering Optimization, 46(12), 1651-1668.

Yerlikaya-Özkurt, F., Askan, A. and Weber, G.-W. (2016). A Hybrid

Computational Method Based on Convex Optimization for Outlier Problems:
Application to Earthquake Ground Motion Prediction. Informatica, 27(4), 893-
910.
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Other Example Studies
 Prediction of natural gas demand:

Özmen, A., Yılmaz, Y. and Weber, G.-W. (2018). Natural gas consumption
forecast with MARS and CMARS models for residential users. Energy Economics,
70, 357-381.

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Other Example Studies
 Medical diagnosis:

Çevik, A., Weber, G.-W., Eyüboğlu, B.M. and Oğuz, K.K. (2017). Voxel-MARS:
a method for early detection of Alzheimer’s disease by classification of structural
brain MRI. Annals of Operations Research, 258(1), 31-57.

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Conclusion & Outlook
 Spatial and temporal distribution of snow is important.
 A surface condition that affects radiation and water balance
calculations which are inputs to hydrological cycle and climate
studies.
 Promising results in snow classification and other various fields
represented by MARS and CMARS.
 MARS and CMARS have been proven as efficient as, and in some
cases, even better than other Machine Learning and AI algorithms,
e.g., ANNs, SVMs, etc.
 Robustified versions of MARS and CMARS:
RMARS and RCMARS.

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Conclusion & Outlook
 Spatial technologies (i.e., GIS and RS):
 Powerful tools with data management, geo-processing, modeling and
visualization capabilities.

 GIS & RS:

 The opportunity of more effective planning and decision making.
 Early-Warning Systems.

 Integration of Operational Research with

Spatial Technologies and Sustainable Development:
 Ability to deal with local and global challenges more effectively.

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Conclusion & Outlook
 Implementation of MARS and CMARS in snow mapping:
 Contribute to the World Development,
 Sustainable Management of Water Resources,
 Integration of snow data with Early-Warning Systems.

 Operational Research with GIS and RS:

 To improve the evaluation of spatial data,
 To increase our quality of life,
 To provide a better future for the next generations.

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 References
 Ayyıldız, E., Purutcuoglu, V. and Weber, G. W. (2018). Loop-based conic multivariate adaptive regression splines is a
novel method for advanced construction of complex biological networks. European Journal of Operational Research,
270(3), 852-861.
 Dobreva, I. D. and Klein, A. G. (2011). Fractional snow cover mapping through artificial neural network analysis of
MODIS surface reflectance. Remote Sensing of Environment, 115(12), 3355-3366.
 Friedman, J. H. (1991). Multivariate adaptive regression splines. The Annals of Statistics, 19(1), pp. 1-67.
 Hall, D. K., Riggs, G. A. and Salomonson, V. V. (1995). Development of Methods for Mapping Global Snow Cover Using
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 54, 127-140.
 Haslam, R., & Waterson, P. (2013). Ergonomics and Sustainability. Ergonomics, 56(3), 343-347.
 Kuter, S., Weber, G.-W., Akyürek, Z. and Özmen, A. (2015). Inversion of top of atmospheric reflectance values by conic
multivariate adaptive regression splines. Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering, 23(4), pp. 651-669.
 Moray, N. (1995). Ergonomics and the global problems of the twenty-first century. Ergonomics, 38(8), 1691-1707.
 Özmen, A., Weber, G.-W., Batmaz, İ. and Kropat, E. (2011). RCMARS: Robustification of CMARS with different
scenarios under polyhedral uncertainty set. Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 16, pp.
4780-4787.
 Salomonson, V. V. and Appel, I. (2004). Estimating fractional snow cover from MODIS using the normalized difference
snow index. Remote Sensing of Environment, 89, pp. 351-360.
 Weber, G.-W., Batmaz, İ., Köksal, G., Taylan, P. and Yerlikaya- Özkurt, F. (2011). CMARS: A new contribution to
nonparametric regression with multivariate adaptive regression splines supported by continuous optimization. Inverse
Problems in Science and Engineering, 20, pp. 371-400.

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 ERGONOMIC DESIGN
Poznan University of Technology, Poznan, Poland

Thank you very much

for your attention…

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