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Equity Valuation and Financial Statement Analysis for Pfizer Inc. and
AstraZeneca Inc.

Preprint · January 2021

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.15416.37126

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 Equity Valuation and Financial Statement Analysis

Assessment title:

Equity Valuation and Financial Statement

Analysis for Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca Inc.

(Hussain Alsaffar)

Word count: 2937

20th December 2020

1
Contents
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 3
Valuation Models .............................................................................................................................. 3
Dividend Discount Model............................................................................................................... 3
Discounted Cash Flow .................................................................................................................... 4
Price to Earnings ratio (P:E)............................................................................................................ 5
Price/Earnings to Growth Ratio (PEG) ............................................................................................ 5
EPS Multiplier Method................................................................................................................... 5
Earnings Yield ................................................................................................................................ 7
Market to Book (M:B) Ratio or Price to Book (P:B) Ratio ................................................................ 7
Price to Cash Flow Ratio ................................................................................................................ 7
Return on Asset (ROA) ................................................................................................................... 7
Price to Operating Profit (P:OP) ..................................................................................................... 8
Performance over the last five years.................................................................................................. 8
Global performance:...................................................................................................................... 8
Pharmaceutical Industry performance: .......................................................................................... 9
Comparing the performance of both Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca Inc, ................................................ 9
Evaluating trends in the companies’ financial position and stock price over the last five years ........... 9
Summary of the key findings from the equity analysis ..................................................................... 11
Comparing the valuations with the current market .......................................................................... 12
Appendix 1 ...................................................................................................................................... 16

2
Introduction
In this report we are going to carry on a comparative study of the equity performance of both Pfizer
Inc. and AstraZeneca Inc, through a financial analysis. They are both listed companies in the London
Stock Exchange. Pfizer Inc.’s headquarter is based at the Unites States of America. It is specialised in
six therapeutic areas (Anti-infectives, inflammation and immunology, internal medicine, oncology,
rare diseases, and vaccines) Whereas AstraZeneca Inc,, United Kingdom based, is specialised in
oncology, cardiovascular, renal and metabolism, respiratory and immunology as well as infection and
vaccines. In 2014, Pfizer Inc. attempted to buy AstraZeneca Inc, for nearly 70 billion pounds but that
had failed (Hirschler & Berkrot, 2014). There is a demand on the pharmaceutical industry as there is
always a disease and the world is looking for a safe and effective treatment.

Since the COVID-19 infection was declared as a pandemic and it became a global issue, the
pharmaceutical companies started competing each other to produce an effective vaccine that protects
the humanity from this highly contagious virus, that has caused the pandemic. Pfizer Inc. and
AstraZeneca Inc, both were among those first companies who worked on developing the vaccine.

This report is produced to the stakeholders of both companies to advise them on the equity
performance, using an Absolute Valuation Model and Relative Valuation Models. The analysis, mainly,
will be based on data obtained from the annual reports (2016-2019) of both companies as well as the
financial statements of each company viewed through Yahoo Finance.

Valuation Models
Absolute Valuation Models help to find “intrinsic” or true value of an investment focusing on
dividends, cash flow, and the growth rate (Nguyen, 2020).

Dividend Discount Model

Since Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca Inc, pay shareholders, so the dividends will be used here for
valuation, as they can represent the actual cash flow going to the shareholders, by which we
could study how much do the shares worth.

The estimated stock value will be determined by the present value of all expected future
dividend payments, taking in consideration the interest rate.

𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 = 𝑊𝑑 𝑟𝑑 (1 − 𝑡) + 𝑊𝑒 𝑟𝑒
WACC = weighted average cost of capital, Wd = Weight of debt, Rd(1-t) = cost of debt, We= Weight of equity,
re =cost of equity

Then, the common stock (P) can be valued using the Gordon Growth Model
𝐷0 (1 + 𝑔)
𝑃=
𝑟−𝑔
D0= Current value, g= constant growth rate, r= rate of return, (WACC) used for this value

3
Starting with Pfizer Inc.’s financial analysis, the average growth rate of 6.09% was higher than
the rate of return (5.21%), by which it led to a limitation of this valuation model, calculations
in Appendix1.

Discounted Cash Flow

It is a valuation method, where it helps deciding on the investment today based on the
projected future cash flows (Fernando, 2020). Taking in consideration the cash flow of both
Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca Inc, over the last 5 years (Mactrotrends, 2020), there was a marked
reduction of the free cash flow (FCF) in 2019 for Pfizer Inc. (-24.47%) with an average growth
of cash flow over the past 5 years of -5.05%, which was used in the calculations for forecasting
the next 3 years, however a growth rate of 2.5% was selected for the terminal value (TV)
calculation. The growth rate of 2.5% was selected as the market growth is generally between
2- 3%. (Fig1)

Fig.1 Discounted cash flow for Pfizer Inc., calculating the projected price per share, FCF=free cash flow, TV=
Terminal Value, WACC = weighted average cost of capital

On the same time, AstraZeneca Inc, showed 27.73% positive growth of FCF in 2019, giving an
average growth of 3.94% (Fig.2). The analysis showed an estimated price per share of $125.11
when the current price is $50.79. This is giving a better opportunity for investors to buy in
AstraZeneca Inc, as the potential upside is 146% compared to 29% for intrinsic value of Pfizer
Inc..

4
 Fig.2 Discounted cash flow for AstraZeneca Inc,, calculating the projected price per share, FCF=free cash flow,
TV= Terminal Value, WACC = weighted average cost of capital

One of the possible reasons explaining the previous finding is that despite equity values for
both companies is comparable, but the shares outstanding is far more in Pfizer Inc. $5.56B
compared to $2.62B for AstraZeneca Inc, and the total debt in Pfizer Inc. is much higher than
in AstraZeneca Inc,.

Relative valuation model is based on comparing, that is why it is also known as “comparable
valuation”. So, in order to value an asset, there is a need for another comparable asset to compare
with, and similarly stocks can be also used to determine the value of other stocks (Gad, 2019). Previous
studies have shown using some ratios may help the investors to realise abnormal returns (Leong, et
al., 2009).

Price to Earnings ratio (P:E)

This ratio refers to the market value per share in relation to the earning per share. The lower
is the better as a rule of thumb, unless there is an issue with the company’s finance and
strategy.
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
𝑃: 𝐸 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 =
𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
So, the P:E ratio for Pfizer Inc. is 24.5 and 53.41 for AstraZeneca Inc,, whereas the P:E ratio
according to S&P 500 Index for the same period is 28.9, by which indicating the Pfizer Inc. is
cheaper and the paid money for the stock can be earned quicker in comparison to the best
single gauge (S&P 500) and certainly in almost half of the period for AstraZeneca Inc, i.e paid
money for shares can be earned back in 24 years with Pfizer Inc., but in 53 years with
AstraZeneca Inc,. In other words, the stock’s price is high relative to earnings.

Price/Earnings to Growth Ratio (PEG)

It is the P:E ratio divided by the growth of EPS. EPS growth rate of AstraZeneca Inc, was
higher than of Pfizer Inc. (20% vs 6%), this makes the PEG ratio of AstraZeneca Inc, lower
than of Pfizer Inc. (2.67 vs 4.08). So investors may initially thought investment in Pfizer Inc. is
more attractive since it has a lower P:E ratio between the two companies. But compared to
AstraZeneca Inc,, it doesn't have a high enough growth rate to justify its P:E. AstraZeneca
Inc, is trading at a discount to its growth rate. Therefore, investors in AstraZeneca Inc, are
paying less per unit of earnings growth.

EPS Multiplier Method

Earnings per share for the trailing twelve months (EPS TTM), means all the earnings made by
company over the last 12 months (Yahoo, 2014), can also be used in a way to evaluate the
profitability of a company. In this method, using the estimated growth rate over next 5 years
obtaining it from Yahoo Finance, the EPS TTM and P:E ratio from MSN (MSN, 2020), it revealed

5
 that the current Share Price for Pfizer Inc. is overvalued, whereas there is a great potential for
the Target Share Price for AstraZeneca Inc, (Fig. 3)

Fig.3 EPS Multiplier method shows the target share price (EPS based on TTM and estimated growth over 5yrs)

As a result, the investors would get more encouraged to buy shares from AstraZeneca Inc,
rather from Pfizer Inc.. Furthermore, by using the above same method of Price/Earnings to
Growth but using the estimated EPS and estimated growth for next year (based on Yahoo
Finance), the Target Price of shares will be $37.87 and $59.16 respectfully for Pfizer Inc. and
AstraZeneca Inc, (Fig. 4).

Fig.4 EPS Multiplier method shows the target share price using estimated EPS and growth rate over next year.

6
Earnings Yield
It is the inverse of P:E ratio i.e it is E:P ratio. The value of this ratio is mainly when the focus is
on rate of return on investment. So, it is 4% and 2% respectfully for Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca
Inc,.

Market to Book (M:B) Ratio or Price to Book (P:B) Ratio

It measures how many times over investors are willing to pay for a stock relative to the stock
book value.
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
𝑀: 𝐵 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 =
𝐵𝑜𝑜𝑘 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒

Fig5. Calculations of market to book ratio for both companies

A market to Book ratio of less than 1 indicates that company is not performing well. However,
investors are generally looking for small M:B ratio to buy stocks.

Price to Cash Flow Ratio

It relates the cash flow earnings per share to the stock price, some investors prefer this ratio
over P:E ratio.
𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑡𝑜 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 =
𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝐹𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
Price to Cash Flow Ratio is 12.68 for Pfizer Inc. and 17.1 for AstraZeneca Inc,, the lower is the
undervalued compared to the other.

Return on Asset (ROA)

This ratio gives an idea on how efficient the company in generating earnings using the assets
(Hargrave, 2020).
100 𝑥 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝑅𝑂𝐴 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠

7
 Therefore, for Pfizer Inc. in 2019, it is 100x16272/167489 = 9.7% and for AstraZeneca Inc, is
100x1335/61377 = 2.2%.

Price to Operating Profit (P:OP)

𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 =
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔

𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒
𝑃: 𝑂𝑃 =
𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒

The reason of using this ratio is because the P:E ratio gets calculated using the net income,
therefore the ratio could be sensitive nonrecurring earnings and capital structure. It was 14.36
for Pfizer and 74.05 for AstraZeneca. Calculations are summarised in Fig. 6

Fig. 6; Calculations of P:OP Ratio for both companies

Performance over the last five years.

Global performance:
The global stocks market had started improving dramatically after the financial crisis of 2008 reaching
its best in 2019. That was observed in FTSE100, S&P500, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC and even
Japan’s Nikkei and China’s CSI 300 (Wearden, 2019). However, things went on the other direction since
COVID19 infection became a pandemic, which lead to lockdowns, curfews in many cities across the
world. In March 2020, the global stocks market had the biggest and sharpest fall since the 2008
financial crisis (Partington & Wearden, 2020). But later, when the light started to be seen at the end
of tunnel, global stocks rose as Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech’s announced their 90% efficient coronavirus

8
vaccine is going save the humanity and end the death toll caused globally by the pandemic (Jolly &
Wearden, 2020). Saying that, the chief economist at Wilmington Trust, Mr Luke Tilly, had a wise
opinion, that another stimulus is needed for the economy’s growth as if there will be no other stimulus
package, then unemployment issue will continue in the United States and people will continue losing
their jobs (Levy, 2020).

Pharmaceutical Industry performance:

Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology, and life sciences are under the healthcare sector. Fig7. summarises
the healthcare sector’ performance over the last 5 years as per Novel Investor (Investor, 2020).

Fig7. S&P 500 Sector Performance over last 5 years, adapted from Novel
Investor
25 22.1
20.8
20

15

10 6.9 6.5

0 -2.7
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-5

Health Care Index

A big drop was noted in 2016, but since then a significant improvement noted until the emergence
of COVID-19 pandemic where all sectors got markedly affected.

Comparing the performance of both Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca Inc,

In 2019, Pfizer Inc. was ranked the third company among the top 50 global pharmaceutical companies
by prescription sales and expenditure on research and development, whereas AstraZeneca Inc, took
the 11th rank (Mikulic, 2020).

In 2019, Pfizer Inc. had 290 active programmes in 52 countries. The top 3 medications by revenues in
2019 for Pfizer Inc. included Prevnar®13 (a vaccine, $5.8B), Ibrance® (an anti-breast cancer agent,
$4.9B) and Eliquis® (a blood thinner, $4.2B) (Pfizer, 2019). On the other hand, AstraZeneca Inc, is active
in more than 100 countries, with its top 3 medications by revenues in 2019 including Tagrisso® (an
anti-lung cancer agent, $3.1B), Symbicort® (Asthma medication, $2.5B) and Brilinta® (a blood thinner,
$1.5B). In 2019, the highest revenues for AstraZeneca Inc, were from the emerging markets and US
markets (Mikulic, 2020a).

Evaluating trends in the companies’ financial position and stock price

over the last five years

9
In Pfizer Inc., 70% of the shares are held by institutions. 3183 institutions are holding shares in this
company. The top three are the vanguard Group Inc., Blackrock Inc., and State Street Corporation. The
shares outstanding for Pfizer Inc. decreased by 6.7% between 2017 and 2019, associated with 6%
increase in the adjusted net income margin. However, there was 1.5% decrease of revenues from
$52.5B in 2017 to $51.8B in 2019. The stoke price increased from $33 at end of 2017 to $38.4 in the
first quarter of 2020 (17% rise), but then with the impact of pandemic it dropped sharply to $27.5,
followed by a recovery over a 9-month period, to reach the highest in this fiscal year $41.1 after the
vaccine announcement, before it went down again reaching $38 at time of writing this report. Overall,
it is still higher than it was back in 2017. The P:E ratio showed an increase over the last few years
(Trefis, 2020). Pfizer Inc. was the top buy this week especially when the vaccine started to be given in
the United Kingdom (Qai, 2020).

Over the last 5 years, number of big events took place, one of the most painful ones was the Brexit,
that divorce between United Kingdom and European Union said to cost the US based company “Pfizer
Inc.” almost a $100M due to moving the product testing and licensing to other countries, as well as
going again through different clinical trial procedures...etc. (Bloomberg, 2018).

In AstraZeneca Inc,, only 16.84% of the shares are held by institutions. 835 institutions are holding
shares in this company. The top three holders are Wellington Management Company LLP, Primecap
Management Company, and FMR LLC. The global sales of this company grew by 11% between 2017
and 2019, from $0.9B to $1.03B. The revenues improved in 2019 after a drop back in 2016-2017 with
a 10.38% increase of revenues just between 2018 and 2019 reaching $24.4B. The stock price is on the
rise over the last 5 years, after a dip in 2015-2016, the stoke price had risen from $30.04 in 2016 to
$51.87 in the first quarter of 2020 (72.6% rise). On March 16th of this year, with the declaring the
pandemic status, the stock price dropped to $39.42, but it has improved since. In fact, it reached $61.1,
the highest ever, in July 2020. That coincides with releasing data from phase I/II trial about the COVID-
19 vaccine. (Fig 8)

Fig8. Pfizer Inc.’s Share Price over the last 5 yrs (left) and AstraZeneka’s Share Price (right) , from Yahoo Finance

10
Summary of the key findings from the equity analysis
Below is the summary of key findings from the equity analysis. The left column summarises the
findings related to Pfizer Inc. and the right column related to AstraZeneca Inc,.

Pfizer Inc. AstraZeneca

Inc,

Market Cap $209.441 B $133.687B

Shares outstanding $5.56B $2.62B
Current Share Price $38.03 $50.79

Earnings per Share 1.54 0.95

Price per Book 3.3 9.01
Price to Cash Flow 12.68 17.1
Price to Earnings x24.5 x53.4
Earnings Yield 4% 2%
Target Share Price (EPS multiple) $29.58 $90.66
Return on Asset 9.7% 2.2%

Price based on Earnings Price based on Earnings

30x 30x

0x 60x 60x
0x
Market P:E Market P:E

Price based on Expected Growth Price based on Expected Growth

2x 2x

0x 4x 4x
0x
PEG PEG

11
Comparing the valuations with the current market

Return on assets (ROA) (Fig. 9) shows that Pfizer Inc. is more efficient in using its assets than
AstraZeneca Inc, (9.7% vs 2.2%). In fact, AstraZeneca’s ROA was steadily drifting down over the last
few years. Whereas Pfizer Inc.’s ROA was going almost hand in hand with ROAs of the sector
(Pharmaceuticals) and industry (Healthcare) especially over the last 2 years, by which investors
perhaps will be more attracted to Pfizer Inc. compared to AstraZeneca Inc, since the impression from
ROA is the presence of an efficient management in Pfizer Inc.

Fig.9 ROA, trends compared to sector (Pharmaceuticals) and

industry (healthcare)

14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
—
2016 2017 2018 2019

Pfizer AstraZeneca Sector Health Care

Pfizer Inc.’s earnings per share (EPS) was higher than AstraZeneca Inc. The variance was more evident
over the last 2 years (Fig.10). Despite that EPS of Pfizer Inc. is dropping during this fiscal year, and it is
improving for AstraZeneca Inc, but overall, the EPS is still better in Pfizer Inc.

Fig.10 EPS from Pfizer Inc. and AstraZeneca Inc, over the last 10 years, graph was obtained from macrotrends

12
P:OP ratio has markedly increased for AstraZeneca in Dec 2019 compared to a drop of P:OP in Pfizer
Inc. that was already lower than the P:OP for the sector and industry (Fig. 11).

Fig. 11, P:OP Ratio for both Pfizer and AstraZeneca compared to sector and
industry
80.00

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

—
2016 2017 2018 2019

P/OP ratio Pfizer P/OP ratio AstraZeneca

Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care

The price to book value has markedly increased for AstraZeneca Inc. compared to Pfizer Inc, becoming
even higher than the sector and industry. It indicates the market judgment about the relationship
between a company’s required rate of return and its actual rate of return. Therefore, Pfizer Inc. is
performing better according to this ratio.

Fig.12 P:BV for both companies compared to Sector and Healthcare

10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
—
2016 2017 2018 2019

P/BV Pfizer P/BV AstraZeneca Sector Industry

13
The EPS multiples showed overvalued share price for Pfizer. However, we have learnt that this
company is doing much better than AstraZeneca from efficient management point of view as it was
reflected on some relative ratios such as Price to Book Value, Price to Operation, and Return on Asset
ratios. Now it is more encouraging to invest with Pfizer Inc. which has a relatively stable ratios in
comparison with market ratios (sector or industry). Saying that, the discounted cash flow for
AstraZeneca was strongly encouraging to invest buy buy shares as potentially the intrinsic value is
much higher than the current stoke price.

I think there is a potential for investment in both companies, as the stocks of both of them had
brilliantly recovered well after the drop happened because of the COVID-19 pandemic and because
there is a great demand on the coronavirus vaccine. In addition to that, both companies are
manufacturing generic which gives them a great opportunity to grow.

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Yahoo, 2014. Yahoo Finance. [Online] Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investing-

education--earnings-per-share--ttm-
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%20year. [Accessed 17 12 2020].

15
 Appendix 1

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