As the US economy tries to progress and move pass the COVID pandemic, it has hit some

bumps in the third quarter. Three alarming concern for the current state of the economy are
the labor market, FED tapering, and supply chains.
In the article, “Capital Market View: Biden's Vaccine Mandate and the U.S. Labor Market”, it
discusses the impact that mandating vaccines for all work places with over a 100 employees will
have on the US labor market. This mandate could cause workers to leave their jobs, be laid-off
for not complying, and/or slow to re-entry into the labor force for others. A Census Bureau’s
Pulse Survey was used to estimate the number of workers who “will probably not” or “will
definitely” not get fully vaccinated and it showed that 16.5% of individuals 18 and older fall
within one of the two categories. The labor market was already a concern due to the Delta
variant wave which caused a number of workers to quit so this mandate can potentially worsen
the situation. This would slow economy growth and be a set back from all the progress we have
been making.
Second, in the article, “U.S. Chartbook: Tapering Gets a Timeline”, it talks about the Federal
Open Market Committee meeting which entailed cutting back on purchasing of securities, the
labor market and inflation. FOMC members were in agreement about being tapering as soon as
late November. This means that they believe they economy is in a well enough place for
interest rate to start becoming determined by the market. The disagreement was surrounding
inflation as inflationary pressure seems to be lasting longer than expected. Rising house prices
(increases in rent) was the main cause for concern about inflation. Also, CPI was an added
concern due the its September results rising more than expected. The forecast was a 0.3%
increase and the actual result was 0.4% increase. If inflation continues to increase it would be a
negative sign for the economy because it can cause exports to decrease which in turn will low
GDP and slow economic growth.
Lastly, in the article, “Economic Roundup: U.S. Supply Chains Remain Top of Mind”, it discusses
the US supply chain issues. The primary concern about the supply chain issue is its impact on
inflation. Due to global semiconductor shortage, reduce production and depleted inventories it
has caused the CPI for new and used vehicles to increase sharply this year. The U.S. Supply-
Chain Stress Index is a great indictor to gauge the state of the US supply chain because it
composed of 3 broad categories; production, inventory and transportation. Unfortunately, the
SCSI has increased over the past months which is a negative sign for the economy because it
suggest that there will be lingering inflation pressures which will lead to downside for economic
growth.
Overall, the current state of the economy is not looking too bright. With the FED tapering and
persisting inflation and supply chain situation, there is a lot of uncertainty about the future.