2021 – 2030 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast

Market Briefing

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 Utilization – Europe, US and China
Indexed utilization rates in hours in Europe, US and China – January to September 2020

Wuhan Italy New York

120 lockdown lockdown lockdown
Indexed flight hours (100 = ave. for first week of January 2020)

100

US utilization fell 80% In Europe and US utilization

80 between 13 March and declined again in September
21 April. Europe by 90%. and stand at less than 50%
of pre-pandemic levels
60

40

Utilisation fell first in

China following the
Recovery in US and Europe
Wuhan
20 lockdown in
gathered pace in June and
January
July but appears to have
stalled in August.
0
1/1/2020 2/1/2020 3/1/2020 4/1/2020 5/1/2020 6/1/2020 7/1/2020 8/1/2020 9/1/2020
Europe US China (Domestic only)

Source: AWIN Flight Tracking Data, Copyright 2020

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 In-Service Aircraft Fleet
Annual count of active commercial aircraft, historical & forecasted
Aircraft
40,000
Aviation Week Network Forecast Highlights
• 2.4% CAGR expected after 2.9% historical fleet growth.
35,000
• In-service fleet in 2020 is expected to fall to 27,370 aircraft –
below 2015 levels - losing 3,200 aircraft vs. 2019.
30,000 • Narrowbodies are key growth driver over decade.
• 737 MAX is BIGGEST driver in 2021.

25,000

20,000
Forecast
2.4% CAGR 2021-30
15,000
Fleet increases from
2.9% CAGR 27,370 in 2020 to
10,000
2015-19 38,300 in 2030

Boeing 737s Awaiting

5,000
Recertification

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (f) 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
3
Source: 2021 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, Fleet Discovery, Aviation Week Network, Copyright 2020.
 New Deliveries - Analysis 2021-30 Share of Deliveries
Turboprop
Annual deliveries historical & forecasted 6%
Highlights Regional Jet
Aircraft
2,000 • 16,200 new deliveries 7%
over 10-years.
Aviation Week Network Forecast
1,800 • Deliveries 30% lower
Widebody
than previous 16%
1,600 expectations.
Narrowbody
• Narrowbodies lead
71%
1,400 recovery efforts, 71%
share.
1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0
Boeing 737 MAX Airbus A320neo
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Source: 2021 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, Aviation Week Network, Copyright 2020.
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 Aircraft Retirements
Annual retirements historical & forecasted

# Retirements % Active
1,200 3.5% Highlights
Aviation Week Network Forecast
• Used spare parts/green time engines will flood markets for
popular legacy types depressing pricing.
3.0%
1,000 • Retirements peak in 2020 at 719.
• Retirement values continue to increase, peaking at 1,122 in
2.5%
year 2028.
800 • Historic high percentage of fleet rates dominate the decade.
• ~2,060 737s, ~1,951 A320s retiring in next 10-years.
2.0%

600

1.5% Boeing 747s Awaiting

Forecast
2021-30 Average = 917
Recycling
400 ~9,400
1.0% retirements
2015-20 Average = 668 over 10-years
200
0.5%

0 0.0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

5
Source: 2021 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, Fleet Discovery, Aviation Week Network, Copyright 2020.
Most valuable programmes, 2021-2030 – by family
$2 trillion worth of aircraft to be delivered over the next decade with $1 trillion spent on MRO

$700
Retail value of deliveries (billions)

Boeing 737
$600 Retail value: $563 billion
MRO demand: $203 billion
Airbus A320
$500
Retail value: $613 billion
MRO demand: $259 billion
$400 Airbus A350
Retail value: $267 billion
MRO demand: $47 billion Boeing 787
$300 Retail value: $267 billion
MRO demand: $88 billion

$200 ATR
A220 A380

DHC-8 767 Boeing 777

$100 ERJ170/190 Retail value: $140 billion
C919 A330 MRO demand: $129 billion
747
$0
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300
MRO Demand (billions)

Source: 2021 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, Aviation Week Network, Copyright 2020.
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 MRO Demand Pre-COVID vs, COVID
MRO Demand 14% lower,
$36.6 billion across 2021-23
MRO aftermarket and the impacts from the pandemic
Pre-COVID-19
Forecast Highlights
$110
• MRO grows at 3.6% CAGR 2021-30, worth
Billions

$887 billion.
$90 • Engine MRO demand is $405 billion over
decade and grows the fastest at 4.9%
CAGR.
MRO Demand 2021-30
$70 3.6% all MRO categories • 2021 MRO is $15.4 billion lower.
4.9% Engine MRO • Engine MRO grows quickly over 10-years
and comes out nearly equal over decade.
$50
Total MRO Demand
6%
$30
7%

$10
20% 46%

-$10
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 21%
Engine Maintenance $30.2 $35.6 $36.7 $41.7 $39.7 $43.9 $43.3 $43.5 $43.3 $46.5 21%

Line Maintenance $16.3 $17.3 $18.0 $18.2 $18.4 $18.6 $18.8 $18.9 $19.0 $19.2
Year 2021 Engine MRO
Components $13.8 $15.5 $16.8 $17.5 $17.8 $18.2 $18.6 $18.7 $19.2 $19.5
2020 forecasted vs. 2021 forecasted Engine Mainenance Line Maintenance
Modifications $5.2 $5.6 $6.1 $6.4 $6.9 $6.8 $37.4$6.6 $6.6 $6.5
billion vs. $30.2 billion $6.4
Airframe Heavy $5.6 $4.9 $4.5 $5.5 $5.3 $4.3 $5.6 $5.0 $4.7 $6.4 Components Modifications
Pre-Covid Forecast $87.3 $87.9 $93.6 $92.7 $95.1 $97.3 $99.3 $100.3 $106.8
Airframe Heavy
Source: 2021 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, Aviation Week Network, Copyright 2020.
 Engine MRO
Engine maintenance demand (overhauls and LLPs), demand and trends

$50 Highlights
$ billions

• $405B in demand is expected over the 10-year forecast

$45 • Fastest growing MRO category with demand expanding at
above average 4.9% CAGR
$40
• Engine MRO comprises 46% of all MRO demand.
$35 • Almost 90,000 engine shop visits expected over the
decade.
$30

Engine MRO by
$25
Aircraft Category
$20
11%
$15
42%
$10

47%
$5

$0 47% of demand relates to

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 engines on twin aisle aircraft
Single Aisle Twin Aisle Regional
Engine Shop Visits Engine LLP

Source: 2021 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, Aviation Week Network, Copyright 2020. 8
 Heavy Airframe Demand
Heavy airframe maintenance demand will be driven by the timing of checks influenced by return from storage aircraft.

$2.0
Billions

Highlights
$1.8 • $52 billion will be spent on heavy airframe
$1.6 maintenance by operators over the next decade.
• 46% of demand relates to maintenance on the Airbus
$1.4 A320 Boeing 737.
• COVID-19 groundings have created a bow-wave of
$1.2
calendar checks which will drive near term demand.
$1.0

$0.8

$0.6

$0.4

$0.2

$0.0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

A320 737 777

747 A330/340 787
767 ERJ170/175/190/195 A350
A380

Source: 2021 Commercial Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast, Aviation Week Network, Copyright 2020. 9
Registered for MRO TransAtlantic?
Visit the On Demand Library to view the below sessions from
the analysts you heard from today:

 2021 – 2030 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast: Focus on North American Fleets
 2021 – 2030 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast: Focus on European Fleets
 2021 – 2030 Business Aviation Fleet & MRO Forecast: Where We’ve Been & Where We’re Going
 2021 – 2030 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast: Focus on US Engines
 2021 – 2030 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast: Focus on European MRO

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Presentation title 11
 Commercial Aviation
Fleet & MRO Forecast

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Presentation title 12