th

105 FoCARS
Foundation Course For Agricultural Research Service

Digital Repository of
Course Materials

• Stakeholder analysis
• Gender Issues in Agricultural
• Technology Assessment
• Tech Forecasting -I
• Technology Forecasting -II
• Technology Diffusion in Agriculture Sector
• Participatory Technology Development
• On–Farm Research and Constraint Analysis in Technology Adoption
• ITK and its Relevance for Sustainability
• Reforming the Agricultural Extension System in India
• Modernizing National Agricultural Extension Systems:
• A Practical Guide for Policy-Makers of Developing Countries
Course Coordinators
K. Kareemulla and S. Ravichandran

Support Team
P. Krishnan and P. Namdev
 TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING
– AN OVERVIEW

D. Rama Rao1
Technology Forecasting (TF) is a planning tool to be at use in
dynamic environments which undergo rapid changes. The
technological backwardness of developing countries is primarily due
to lack of planned attention to the maintenance, development of
technology capabilities and utilising resources efficiently. Rapid
technology progress and the increased rate of obsolescence of
technologies necessitate technology forecasting for any planning
process. Since technologies play a major role in planning of business,
industry, government and society's growth, it becomes essential to
determine its direction and magnitude by systematic analysis and
study.

TF can be defined as a probabilistic prediction of technological

changes in terms of future characteristics of useful machines, systems
or procedures. In other words, technology forecasting attempts to
predict rate of technology advance. Primarily TF attempts to bring
potential future technology into focus. Decision-makers are concerned
about the desirable and undesirable effects of fast growing
technologies. Anticipation of such technologies serve as early warning
signals before a particular technology is imported or manufactured
indigenously.

Need for technology forecasting

The need for technology forecasting is essential for the following
reasons:
 Future oriented R & D
 Prevention of import of obsolete technologies
 Anticipating technical innovation
 Shift towards appropriate technology
 Effective technology transfer
 Development of exportable technologies

1
Former Director, NAARM

1
 th
105 FOCARS

 Leap across generations

 Rapidity of innovations
 Trade restrictions
 Avoid surprises
Elements of technology forecasting
There are four essential elements in a technology forecast, namely:
 Time
 Qualitative
 Quantitative
 Probability of occurrence depending on the purpose
The time element deals with resource-time relationship. The qualitative
element attempts to identify the factors that are likely to change the
activities or technology trends in areas of interest to the forecaster.
The quantitative element attempts to measure and assess the level of
performance of various technologies. The element of probability of
occurrence attempts to predict different alternatives and its confidence
level.
Technology forecasting methods
The available technology forecasting techniques, both qualitative
and quantitative methods, can be classified into two broad
categories, viz. Exploratory forecasting and normative forecasting.
Various TF techniques are given in Table-1.

Table-1: Technology forecasting techniques

Exploratory forecasting
Delphi method
Analytical methods
Multivariate analysis
Trend extrapolation
Growth models
Brainstorming
Scenario writing
Substitution analysis
Input-output models
Monitoring
Normative forecasting
Operations research models
Network techniques
Cross-impact analysis
Relevance trees
SEER
Morphological analysis
Dynamic modeling

2
 National Academy of Agricultural Research Management

i) Exploratory methods
Exploratory methods start with the present state of technology and
quantitatively project future possibilities. In other words, it provides
means for exploring the shape of tomorrow given the state, trends, and
promises of today. These methods are applicable in systems which grow
under a specific environment. Exploratory methods can be grouped
into four categories, viz., intuitive, extrapolative, growth curves and
technology monitoring.
a) Intuitive methods
Intuitive methods are based on the ability of one or more experts to
assess the future. Some commonly used intuitive methods are:
Individual forecasting: Experts in specific fields often prepare
forecasts in their field. This method lacks multidisciplinary interaction,
and is often biased. Probability of failures is high.
Opinion polls: Opinions are obtained from several individuals and
combined. The minimum sample size should be twenty. One of the
disadvantages of this method is that the minority opinion will be
drowned by majority opinion irrespective of its significance.
Panels: A group of experts interact across a table. This has the
advantage of being multi- disciplinary. The major disadvantages are:
 Extreme views get eliminated
 Vociferous or dominant personalities influence the forecast
 Some experts don’t agree failure of their earlier stand
 Subordinates refrain from speaking against bosses views.
Brainstorming: In situations where evaluation of unconventional
alternatives is needed, the effects of bureaucracy and band wagon have
to be reduced. Brainstorming is a frank and free unconventional
alternative search technique.
Scenario writing: This is a creative method of deriving possible
composite scenarios of future by considering alternate options.
Delphi: The delphi is a group process technique for eliciting, collating
and generally directing expert judgment towards a consensus on a
particular topic. This study is typically conducted by mail through
several rounds of questionnaires for convergence of opinions. The
detailed procedure is described later.
b) Extrapolative methods
Trend extrapolation: The past trend is projected into the future using
linear or semi-logarithmic or double logarithmic extrapolation or curve
fitting techniques. These are the most widely used techniques and are

3
 th
105 FOCARS

cheap in terms of fund requirements. Some extrapolation techniques

are: Linear extrapolation, exponential extrapolation and trend
correlation.
c) Growth curves
Technology capabilities grow mainly in `S' shaped fashion having a
finite limit. In such cases, use of other techniques will lead to erratic
end results. Some of the commonly used growth models are:
 Pearl curve
 Gompertz curve
 Fisher-pry curve
Substitution: In cases where technology substitutions occur
substitution models can be used which are very simple for usage.
d) Technology monitoring
Technology grows many times through breakthroughs, and
prediction of future is possible by monitoring the early signals of the
innovation. This is mainly achieved by a search of patents, radical
alternatives and literature for the embryo of new technologies.
Multivariate analysis: In cases where the cause and effect
relationship is not obvious, multivariate analysis between the
dependent variable and the independent variables can give results
which can be used in forecasting.
ii) Normative methods
Normative methods begin with an objective/ goal and work backwards
to the present to find out the best approach to realise the predetermined
objective. This is need-based in which needed capabilities are
identified for the achievement of the goals. Some of the available
normative techniques for TF are:
Network techniques: These techniques are used for mission-
oriented planning exercises mainly to analyse the road blocks to
achieve the final target of objective. These are widely used and known
mainly as SOON charts (Sequence of opportunities and negatives).
System for Event Evaluation and Review (SEER): This is a modified
variance of Delphi ideal for corporate exercises not necessarily the ones
aimed at consensus. This consists of a single round of event evaluation.
Cross-impact analysis: Different events interact with different
strength towards other course of events, and forecasts are made using
these interactions and random numbers so as to derive combine
forecasts or for depicting the interaction of events.
Morphological analysis: This is a method for structured thinking

4
 National Academy of Agricultural Research Management

identifying all possible system alternatives. The main idea behind using
this method is not to miss any options.
Relevance trees: A number of steps may be available to achieve a
given objective but each step may be different in its effectiveness in
terms of cost or profit or probability of success. Evaluation of these
multiple choices may be done through decision trees.
Dynamic modeling: These are computer aided structural modeling
techniques in which time varying effects can be explicitly considered.
Examples: Forvestor model, Mesarovic model, Meadows model (club
of Rome), etc.
Some of the methods are simple variants of techniques used in other
areas. These methods are mainly used to eliminate subjective errors
associated with intuitive forecasting techniques.
Criteria for application of TF
Few searching questions that are relevant for application of
Technology Forecasting are:
1. Is the system prepared to absorb / contribute to arising technology
needs of the Society?
2. Does the system has any mechanism to
 anticipate changes?
 assess needed technologies?
 assign strategies to implement the technologies?
Choice of techniques
The choice of selecting techniques for a particular situation is a
complex problem, and depends on many factors such as:
 Purpose for which the forecast is being made
 Reliability needed
 Precision of the data
 Time period and resources available
 Ability to combine various interacting factors
The cost of using different forecasting methods vary considerably,
dynamic modelling being more expensive. In general, the cost increases
with the accuracy needed. It is preferable to use a combination of
methods for improving the reliability of forecasts through mutual
reinforcement.
The approaches to be selected for forecasting and elements to be
assessed in forecasting will depend on the purpose for which
technology forecasts are being prepared. Technology forecasting
techniques are used based on purpose (Holroyd, 1979), and various

5
 th
105 FOCARS

methods used for each of the purpose are given in the Table - 2. and
their applications are given in Table-3.
Table-2: Choice of selection of techniques
The Technology Forecasting techniques which can be used in search of

Problem Relevant factors Trends of Relationships Implications for

identification parameters among action
parameters
Brainstorming Brainstorming Extrapolation Dynamic Expert consultation
modelling
Delphi Delphi Growth curves Morphology Scenario building
Expert opinion Expert opinion Substitution Cross-impact Modelling
Monitoring analysis
Scenario writing Relevance tree & Simulation

Table-3: Application of technology forecasting

Technique Questions it tries to answer Applications

Past versus future R&D Market
Trend Is there a rate change? Why rate is declining? planning
extrapolation Future performance levels Corporate
Total market size planning

Growth Is there a limit? New product

curves Sales growth of new product identification
Setting up new plant capacity Production
Delphi When can, will or should certain events occur R&D
Setting up goals Market research
What are the elements of future New product
identification
Morphology Can we have a new way? Long
Valuerange
Did we consider all alternatives? Listing planning
engineering
diversification alternatives design
Cross-impact Can interaction of events delay or accelerate the LRP
R&DR&DMarketing
analysis growth?
Relevance Target-orient planning R&D
tree Problem solution convergence

6
 National Academy of Agricultural Research Management

Mathematical Thought provocation R&D New products Policy

How to assess alternative policies? analysis
modelling
How to change course of action to achieve a R&D
desired result? Production
Innovation stimulation marketing
Scenario Policy
LRP
writing Consideration of all interactions planning

Technology Organisational alternatives

What are the new areas? LRP
R&D
monitoring Production
R&D New
What are the likely new products? Prediction of
break through Threats to the existing products products

Production R&D Marketing New product

demand/repla d
cement e
decisions m
a
Case-1: Delphi study of future of Indian agriculture n
d
The results of Delphi study conducted during 1976-77 to forecast the
future of Indian Agriculture (Rohtagi et al, 1979) are given below. The
expert panel for this study consisted of scientists and faculty from
universities and R & D laboratories and administrators from
government departments. The questionnaires were sent to 143 persons
in the first round. But the actual respondents were 39 in the first round
and 23 in the second round. The experts were asked to indicate the year
of achievement of the events. Some of the forecasts and the actual
achievements, wherever applicable and available, are given below:

Event Forecast Actual

achievement
(achieving
year)

Double crop to 50 m.ha. 1993 Achieved

Total irrigation to 50 m.ha. 1992 Achieved
Food grains to exceed 141 m.t. 1982 Achieved 1983-84
75% bread fortification by soybean 1991 Not achieved
Fertilizer consumption of 50 kg/ha of cropped 1988 Achieved
area
Fertiliser consumption of 75 kg/ha of cropped 2003 Likely to exceed
area
Post harvest losses below 10% 1986 Achieved
Post harvest losses below 5% 1998 Not possible

7
 th
105 FOCARS

Milk to exceed 40 m.t. 1992 Achieved 1985

Case-2: Delphi study of future of sorghum in India

A forecast of sorghum scenario in India was carried out using
Delphi and trend methods (Rama Rao and Kiresur, 1992). The
sorghum data for total cropped area and total production during
1950-1990 indicate great deal of fluctuation owing to various factors
such as demand, prices, rain fall, seed quality and farmers priorities.
The remarkable drop in area under Sorghum during late 1960s is
noteworthy. This was a forced situation mainly due to near constant
demand coupled with enhanced yield due to introduction of HYVs in
this period i.e. green revolution. Given such an uncertain situation,
forecast of sorghum was made in terms of its cropped area,
production, productivity, demand for alternate uses and relative
price structure.

Scenario during 1992: India is the largest producer of sorghum with

about 11 per cent of the total area under food grains (128 m.ha) and 7
per cent of the total food grain production (172 m. tonnes) during
1990-91. Rabi sorghum is grown in an area of about 5.9 m.ha. and
its productivity is 594 kg/ha. Because of its good quality it is
preferred for human (traditional) consumption. About 71 per cent of
the total sorghum production comes from kharif crop which is grown
in a larger area (8.6 m.ha) and has improved productivity (974
kg/ha.). Though the production and productivity are high, its
relatively poor quality has led to low demand. Thus, there is a
gradual reduction in its area over the years. This situation may not
change unless and until superior quality varieties/hybrids are evolved
and/or alternate uses are made feasible.
Forecast: The forecasts made by Delphi are presented below:

Forecasted Parameter/Event Actual for 1990-91 Forecast for 2000

AD

Production (million
Area (million ha.) tonnes) 11.88
14.50 12.09
12.00
Yield (kg/ha) 819 949
Percentage area under HYVs 52.1 60.0
No. of years for sorghum to
become attractive for alternate
N.A. 10
uses.....:

8
 National Academy of Agricultural Research Management

The forecast for area under HYVs is 67 per cent by trend method and
60 per cent by Delphi method; the latter appears logical since
increased area under HYVs should reflect in decrease of cropped area
as the rate of demand change is unlikely to increase by 2000 AD. With
regard to the procurement prices of cereals, the forecast indicates
continuation of government policies as in the past. To promote
sorghum production, the experts strongly opined for a relatively higher
support price than now. This refers to governmental policy on food
grain procurement. As a corollary to present forecast, the total cropped
area will decrease to about 10 m. ha. when the average yield increases
to about 1500 Kg/ha. But the forecast does not indicate such a
possibility by 2000 AD. However, this will be relevant as a long term
forecast or alternatively should there be any breakthrough on the HYVs
front. Another area of concern is the advancements in dry land crops.
Any breakthrough in these crops will have severe impact on sorghum as
such crops are likely to grow at the expense of sorghum.

Bibliography
Ayres, R.U., 1969, Technological Forecasting and Long Range
Planning, McGraw - Hill, New York.

Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M., 1976, Time Series Analysis:

Forecasting and Control, Holden- Day, San Fransico.

Bright, J.R., 1978, Practical Technological Forecasting, Industrial

Management Centre, Austin. Cetron, M.J., 1971, Technological
Forecasting - A Practical Approach, Gardon & Breach
Sci.Pub., London.

Coates, J.F., 1976, Technology Assessment - A Tool Kit, Chemtech,

372-383.

Gordon, T.J. and Hayward, 1968, Initial Experiments with the Cross
Impact Matrix Method of Forecasting, Futures, Vol.1, No.2., pp
100-116.

Holroyd, P. 1979, Some Recent Methodologies in Future Studies,

R&D Mgmt, Vol 9, No3, pp107-116.

Jones, H. and Twiss, B.C., 1979, Forecasting Technology for

Planning Decisions, Macmillan, London.

9
 th
105 FOCARS

Lanford, H.W., 1972, Technological Forecasting Methodologies,

American Management Association, New York.

Makridakis, S.,Wheelwright, S.C. and Megee, V.E., 1983,

Forecasting: Methods and Applications, Wiley, New York.

Martino, J.P., 1972, An Introduction to Technological Forecasting,

Gardon and Breach Sci. Pub., New York

Martino, J.P., 1983, Technological Forecasting for Decision Making,

Elsevier, North-Holland. Porter, A.L., 1980, A Guidebook for
Technology Assessment Impact Analysis, Elsevier, New York.

Rama Rao, D. and Kiresur, V., 1994, Technological Forecasting of

Sorghum Scenario in India, NAARM, Hyderabad.

Rohtagi, P.K., Rohtagi, K. and Bowonder, B., 1979,

Technological Forecasting, Tata McGraw-Hill
Pub.Co.Ltd.,Delhi.

Saaty, T.L., 1988, Multicriteria Decision Making, McGraw-Hill, New

York.

Saaty, T.L. and Kearns, K.P., 1985, Analytical Planning, Pergamon

Press, Oxford.

Wheelright, S.C. and Makridakis, S., 1973 & 1980, Forecasting

Methods for Management, Wiley, New York

10
 ¦ÉÉEÞò+xÉÖ{É - ®úɹ]ÅõÒªÉ EÞòÊ¹É +xÉÖºÉÆvÉÉxÉ |ɤÉÆvÉ +EòÉnù¨ÉÒ
®úÉVÉäxpùxÉMÉ®ú, ½èþnù®úɤÉÉnù-500030, iÉä±ÉÆMÉÉhÉÉ, ¦ÉÉ®úiÉ
ICAR-National Academy of Agricultural Research Management
(ISO 9001:2008 Certified)
Rajendranagar, Hyderabad-500030, Telangana, India
https://www.naarm.org.in