Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presentation to Investors
May 2015
-2-
Disclaimer
MARKET OUTLOOK
APPENDIX
-7-
5.5%
• Benefits from PTT’s dual
20.3% role as our major
shareholder and key
49.1% business partner
• All transactions take
place at arm’s length
25.1% and in adherence with
strong corporate
PTT
49.1% governance principles
Foreign Investors
Local Investors
NVDR As of 27 Feb 2015
LPG
REFINERY
PLATFORMATE Gasoline
REFINED
CRUDE IMPORT PETROLEUM Jet/Kero
LONG RESIDUE Diesel
Fuel Oil
Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol
Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET)
Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil • 4 Oil & Chemical Tankers Mitr Phol 35.0% Padaeng
Sells Electricity/Steam to
Capacity : Paraxylene Capacity : Capacity :51,250 DWT 30.0% 35.0%
Group Maesod Clean Energy
275,000 barrels/day 527,000 tons/annum Base Oil Small Power Producer • Crude Tankers: 3VLCCs
Mixed Xylene 267,015 tons/annum Capacity: 881,050 DWT (MCE)
Program
52,000 tons/annum Bitumen • 11 crew & utility boats Sugarcane Based Ethanol
3-on-1 Combined Cycle
Benzene 350,000 tons/annum (120 DWT each) Capacity : 230,000 lts/day
Electricity 118 MW
259,000 tons/annum TDAE Steam 168 tons/hour • 2 Large vessels for crude, 50.0% Sapthip (SAP)
Total 838,000 tons/annum 67,520 tons/annum feedstock & product Cassava Based Ethanol
TOP SPP Company storage and transportation
75.0% Mitsui 25.0% Capacity : 200,000 lts/day
100.0% Limited services
LABIX Company Limited 2 Small Power Producers Others 57.4% BCP 21.3%
Platformate Capacity: 200,000 DWT 21.3%
(LABIX) Total capacity: 239 MW Ubon Bio Ethanol (UBE)
1.8 million tons/annum • Ship management services
LAB producer and distributor COD 2016 Cassava/Molasses Based Plant
Capacity: 100 KTA COD: 2015 TP 27.7% PTT 40.4% Capacity : 400,000 lts/day
PTT 30.1% 9.2 % Others 50.4% 100.0%
100.0% Thaioil Energy Services
PTTGC 30.3%
(TES)
Thaioil 11.9%
Global Power Synergy Thappline (THAP) Proceeds the business on
Thaioil Solvent Company Limited various professional of
Multi-product Pipeline
Through TOP Solvent (TS) management services
Capacity:26,000 m.lts/y
80.5% 100.0% Principal power plant of PTT PTT 40.0%
capacity 1,038 MW of electricity PTTGC 20.0% 20.0%
1,340 tons/hour of steam IRPC 20.0%
Sak Chaisidhi Solvent distribute Top Solvent PTT Energy Solutions
Total aggregate capacity PTT ICT Solutions
(SAKC) in Thailand Vietnam (PTTES)
1,357 MW (PTT ICT)
Capacity : Solvent distribute in PTT Group Provides engineering
20.0%
141,000 tons/annum Vietnam 80.0% technique consulting
services
Refinery
Aromatics
Net Profit Contribution 43% 31% 15% 10% Lube Base
Others
(Avg. from 2006 – Q1/15)
-12-
Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration
PROCESS FLOWCHART
Thai Paraxylene
ADIP FUELGAS
CDU-3
165,000 KEROSENE
HVU-1 Thai Lube Base
HVU-2
FUEL OIL
BBU
BITUMEN
1,800
SRU-1/2
ADIP
SRU-3/4
SULPHUR
2x210
-13-
One of Region’s Leading Refineries
Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,241 kbd 2014 Market shares for refined petroleum product3
BCP2 (120 kbpd) Esso (177 kbpd) Nelson Index - Regional Comparison
14.0 13.8
IRPC2 (215 kbpd)
9.84 9.2
PTTGC2 (280kbpd)
SPRC2 (155 kbpd) 6.6 6.5
4.6
RPCC (17 kbpd)
Note: 1. Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy Thailand,
2. PTT holds a 27.22% interest in BCP, a 38.51% interest in IRPC, a 48.9% interest in PTTGC, and a 36% interest in SPRC
3. Calculate by total domestic sales of refined petroleum products of Thai Oil in 2014 divided by total sales of petroleum products in Thailand in 2014 excl LPG. Source from EPPO
4. Based on our internal estimates using the methodology of the Nelson Complexity Index.
-14-
Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets
Close proximity to the key domestic markets Access to Indochina markets through deep water ports
Indochina Bangkok
Sriracha (124 km from BKK)
2. Direct access to deep water
Map Ta Phut
ports
Gulf of Thailand
3. Direct connection with
multi-product pipelines THAILAND
CAMBODIA
Direct connection with product pipeline system Our plants are located within the Sriracha
Saraburi Complex
Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Spread over Domestic demand for
TOP configuration Crude output Dubai (US$/bbl) petroleum products*
1
% S = 1.54 % S = 2.13 % S = 0.79
Others 3% 4% -14.6 LPG
API = 31.2 API = 30.4 API = 39.7 14% 11% PLATFORMATE
Far East 19.3 24%
22%
41% 17.1 12% JET
58% Middle
61%
East
1. LPG price = 73%
LPG CP - 20$/ton)
32% 41%
since 2 Feb 15 16.3 42% DIESEL
onwards.
29%
32%
27%
13% 7% 7% -1.8 4% FUEL OIL
Oman Dubai Murban Q1/15 Q1/15
Thai Oil is able to diversify its • Flexibility in crude intake allows diversification of crude types to source cheaper crude
type of crude intake and • Flexibility in product outputs by maximizing middle distillates (jet and diesel) by adjusting
product outputs to maximize production mode to capture domestic demand and price premium
demand and margin • Maximize Platformate production to capture higher margin on aromatics
• Minimize fuel oil output to avoid lower margin products
Refinery Intake
292 296 289
13% 10%7% (KBD)
9% 1%
FY/14 2% Q1/15 19% 19% 12%
Sales Sales 24% Export
38% Breakdown 22% 39% Breakdown
Domestic Domestic 88%
Domestic 81% 81%
Jobbers Jobbers
2% 15% 2% 17%
2012
2010
Operational Troubleshooting
2
one of the region’s through integration
1
most advanced and with, and significant
competitive refineries contribution from, our
subsidiaries
3 4 5
and operational competitive advantages barriers to entry and
integration with PTT as in access to key markets strong market
the Group’s principal positioning
refiner
6 7 8
superiority, logistical management team
advantages & cost
leadership
-19-
Refinery Implication
$5/bbl drop in Dubai crude price from ongoing 1.5 $/bbl inventory loss
oversupply in crude oil market (from huge stock loss 11.2 $/bbl
in Q4/14 )
Strong demand during winter season plus benefit from Improved market GRM
low oil price (i.e. low F&L ) supported market GRM (from 8.2 to 8.8 $/bbl Q/Q)
Aromatic
Squeezed BZ margin due to weak downstream market and Pressured Aromatic
more supply from naphtha crackers, while Stable PX Margins
(GIM contribution from (0.3)
to (0.4) $/bbl Q/Q)
Base Oil
Higher restocking demand ahead of oil changing season Improved Base Oil
Lower feedstock cost following HSFO support margins margins
(GIM contribution from 0.4 to
However oversupply of Gr II/III still pressured market 0.7 $/bbl Q/Q)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15
Financial Performance
Sales Revenue EBITDA
Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB
447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV)
446,241
399,125 414,575
390,090
318,391 28,760
284,123 23,868 22,808 22,337
22,897 20,350
21,393
17,381 19,713 19,541
14,585
12,846
71,366 7,949 6,209
5,210
2,651
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013R 2014R Q1/15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013R 2014R Q1/15
Current 48,981
47,277 80,193 2% THB
Assets 79,603 LT Debt1) 4%4% Loan
Non-Current 10%
Assets 98,143 99,401 92,399 THB US$
87,844 Equities
Bond Bond
32% 58%
31 Dec 14R 31 Mar 15 89%
Dividend Policy :
Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan
THB/Share
n.a. n.a.
9.19 9.40
7.82 8.13
7.28 EPS
Total dividend
5.91 6.04 Interim dividend
5.09 Dividend payout
48% 4.41
45% 4.50 43% 45% 45% 45% 45%
40%
3.50 3.50 3.30
2.75 2.55 2.70
25% 2.30
1.80 1.75 1.75 2.00
1.50 1.30
0.11 1.05 1.16
0.60 0.50 0.80 0.56
FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 FY/07 FY/08 FY/09 FY/10 FY/11 FY/12 FY/13 FY/14
-1.97
Yield* 4.0% 5.6% 5.6% 6.2% 5.2% 7.1% 4.0% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 2.3%
* Based on average TOP price in each year
TOP
price
44.7 63.0 62.7 72.7 53.3 35.9 49.9 69.8 65.1 64.6 50.4
-26-
Core Business
Quick win
Value Chain Enhancement
Adjacent
AEC countries
Geography
Updated CAPEX plan -28-
Strategic Investment Plan
• CAPEX = 137 M$
• COD = May-14
• CAPEX = 68 M$
• COD = Aug-14
Project Update -30-
Key Project Progress Update : LAB
Feedstock
• CAPEX = 380 M$
• COD = 2Q 2016
Project Update -32-
Progress on Myanmar Project
Thanlyin
• Crude Oil
• Petroleum Products
• Aromatics
• Base Oil & Bitumen
-34-
CRUDE OIL
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -35-
Sources:
(1) IMF Apr‘15 (2) IMF Jan’15
(3) BOT Dec, 2014 (4) BOT Dec, 2014
(5)ASEAN-5 includes Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -36-
IEA forecasted 2015’s global oil demand to increase by 1.1 MBD mainly from Asia
Demand Growth
IEA (MBD) (MBD)
2013 91.9 1.3 The global oil demand will grow by 1.1 MBD in 2015,
2014 92.5 0.7 supported by improved global economic conditions.
2015 93.6 1.1
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report April 2015
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -37-
IEA revised down 2015’s Non-OPEC oil supply growth by 350 KBD to 0.6 MBD.
Non OPEC
Growth
IEA Supply
(MBD)
(MBD)
2013 50.5 1.2 IEA forecasted 2015’s oil supply from non-OPEC
2014 52.4 1.9 producers to rise by 0.6 MBD, mainly from North
2015 53.0 0.6 America.
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report April 2015
Refinery -38-
Crude Prices Rebound in 2H-15
as the Market Strives to Find the Demand-Supply Balance
Dubai Price Movement
$/BBL Shale Oil Boom
110.0 Dramatic Declines in
100.0 Oil Rigs & CAPEX Cuts
90.0
80.0 Conflict in Yemen
70.0
60.0
OPEC’s Meeting:
No Output Cut Iran’s Final Nuclear
50.0
Deal Deadline
40.0
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
Actual Forecast *Q2TD (as of 7th May): $59.79/BBL
Key Highlights
10.0 98
Non-OPEC supply slows
9.0 96 down
8.0
Flat Rate of 94
7.0
Production
6.0 92
5.0
4.0 90
1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
Feb-11 Dec-11 Oct-12 Aug-13 Jun-14 Apr-15
Bab el-
Mandeb
MBD MBD
3.0
98 Crude oil surplus
Non-OPEC supply narrows down
96
growth slows down
2.0
94
1.0
92
Recovering oil
demand
90 0.0
1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
Demand Supply
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Refinery -43-
Strong Gasoline
Restocking Margin
Q1/14: $6.3/BBL
Q1/15: $8.6/BBL
Q2/14: $5.8/BBL Q4/14: $6.2/BBL
Q3/14: $4.8/BBL
6000 9000
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bloomberg, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Refinery -45-
Addition
CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Nameplate
(start-up Country Company
(KBD)
AP Additional Demand ME Additional Demand period)
ME Addition China Q1-15 UAE 417 Ruwais
Australia Japan Q2-15 China 100 Local Rizhao Lanqiao
India Vietnam (Dec’14 > May’15)
Other AP Net Addition Q3-15 China 30 Sinopec Jiujang
KBD
1400 Q4-15 China 140 CNOOC/Ningbo Daxie
India 300 IOC Paradip
1200 (Jan’15 > Oct’15)
New Zealand 8 Marsden Point
1000 Q1-16 10
816 847 Pakistan Pakistan Refinery
764
800 Q2-16 India 112 BPCL Kochi
649 136
550 Qatar Ras Laffan
600
Mongolia 41 Mongol Sekiyu
400 Q3-16 China 60 CNOOC Taizhou
Note: Adjusted capacity based on start-up period Taiwan -93 CPC Corporation
(Effective additional capacity)
Q3-16 Japan -93 Cosmo oil
Q4-16 China -111 Local refineries
Sources FACTs Semi Annual Reports, Spring 2015, Reuters, Bloomberg, TOP estimate
Thailand Oil Demand -46-
Remarks : (A) Mogas and diesel included ethanol and biodiesel, respectively
(B) Forecasted by BOT (Monetary Policy Report as of Mar-15 )
(C) Forecasted by TOP
AROMATICS
Aromatics -48-
Aromatics Market
PX-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ-ULG95 ($/TON)
371
326
279 273 277 268 286
252 255 254
221 207
178
98
2Q15TD*
Y2014
Y2015
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2H15
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15TD*
Y2014
2H15
Y2015
Actual Forecast Actual Forecast
Jul-13
Mar-14
Nov-14
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
AP PX Capacity Turnaround
2Q15TD
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
AP BZ Capacity Turnaround
2Q14
4Q14
1Q15
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Naphtha MOPJ-LPG
Source: IHS as of Apr’15 and Platts as of Apr’15
Aromatics -51-
PX and BZ Demand/Supply Outlook
90
495 486 501 499 493
70
369 379
50
30
10
2Q15TD*
Y2014
Y2015
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2H15
-10
2012 2013 2014 2015
YTD2015*
Bitumen Market
80
23
12
60
40
-32
20
-69 -66
-77
0
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15TD*
Y2014
2H15
Y2015
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(1)
(1)averaged from Q1-2015 data
CONCLUSION
Conclusion -56-
Refinery
• Crude prices recover, buoyed by U.S. oil production
growth slowdown and MENA tension.
• Modest GRM backed by Middle Distillate demand
Aromatics
• Stable Aromatics spread on recovering downstream
demand
Base Oil
• Stable Base oil spread on widen Gr.II-Gr.I price
difference
-57-
Kerosene
Customers
Feedstock
LAS
Domestic
LAB
Benzene
Export
Feedstock
Products
Kerosene By Products
Return
*LAS = Linear Alkyl Benzene Sulfonate Concentrated Liquid Tablet Detergent Dish Washing
LAB -59-
100
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030
650
Average 564 $/Ton
600
550
500
Higher US BZ import from Asia High BZ price from Dragon
450 pacific loss supply
400
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
Vietnam
Strong Strategic Partner
Malaysia
APPENDIX
Better Refinery Utilization Rate & Domestic Sales than industry average
Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization
Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14
2014 2015 2014
106% 108% 105%
$/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD * FY14
DUBAI (DB) 104.4 106.1 101.5 74.4 51.9 59.6 96.6
ULG95 - DB 14.6 16.1 13.2 13.4 15.3 17.2 14.3 Dubai
JET - DB 17.0 14.3 14.5 17.7 17.1 13.5 15.9 - Excess OPEC & Non OPEC
supplies; unprecedented US
GO - DB 17.8 16.0 14.4 16.0 16.3 13.8 16.1 crude oil inventory.
HSFO - DB (8.5) (10.6) (8.4) (5.6) (1.8) (3.6) (8.3) - Strong U.S. Dollar
* As of 7 May 15
120
104 105 104 105 106 108 106 102 +Unrest in the Middle East
96
100 87 and North Africa including
Dubai Price
80
76 Libya, Iraq and Yemen.
(US$/bbl) 65
60 59
55 55
60 46
GRM
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
+Strong demand in winter
2014 2015
support product spread i.e.
Gross Refinery Margins - GRM Jet/GO/HSFO
2014 2015 2014 +Q/Q drop in oil price,
$/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY14 benefit GRM thru lower F&L
Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production
(Unit: US$/bbl)
19.2
8.2 4.8 8.7 6.1
2.9 1.4
Product to Feed
Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 FY/13 FY/14
8.2 8.8
5.1 4.4 4.6 4.3 5.7
Crude Marketing GRM
(excluded stock gain / loss)
Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 FY/13 FY/14
389 ****
QoQ 10,685 (109) 224 31 36 35 (3) 44 10,942 13,251 (2,309)
YoY 2,568 (581) (115) (9) 8 (19) 19 155 2,030 2,432 (402)
*Since Q3/14 onwards, 2014 SAKC capacity = 141 KTA / 2013 SAKC capacity = 76 KTA
** Apply on an equity accounted basis in the consolidated financial statement.(GPSC has been held by TOP 11.88% and TP 27.71% since 10 Jan 13)
***TP performance are based on TOP’s equity portion (excluding 27.71% shares of profit from the investment in GPSC). TOP hold TP 74% since 4 Dec 12
**** Excluding net profit from TOP SPP and TES = 17 MB
Financial -70-
Consolidated Financial Performance
Stock G/(L)&Reversal of
999 (12,252) 13,251 (1,433) 2,432
NRV/(NRV)
Net Profit/ (Loss) excl. Stk G/(L)
3,499 5,808 (2,309) 3,901 (402)
and Reversal of NRV/(NRV)
Financing
Financing 141 1,911
Loans proceeding (i.e.
Free Cash Flow 1,667 5,122 +
LABIX, SAKC)
1,584 3,231
Dividends paid - -
Interest (1,443) (1,321)
Statement of Income
Thank You
Any queries, please contact:
at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com
Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961
Fax: 662-797-2976