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Thai Oil Public Company Limited

Presentation to Investors
May 2015
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Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is intended

solely for your personal reference. Please do not circulate this

material. If you are not an intended recipient, you must not

read, disclose, copy, retain, distribute or take any action in

reliance upon it.


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Corporate Vision, Mission and Values

A LEADING FULLY INTEGRATED REFINING & PETROCHEMICAL


VISION
COMPANY IN ASIA PACIFIC

• To be in top quartile on performance and return on investment

• To create a high-performance organization that promotes


MISSION teamwork, innovation and trust for sustainability

• To emphasis good Corporate Governance and commit to Corporate


Social Responsibility

Professionalism Excellent Striving


Vision Focus
Ownership & Commitment
VALUES Initiative
Social Responsibility Integrity Teamwork & Collaboration
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Corporate Governance Policy

Roles and Responsibilities for


Corporate Governance Policy Stakeholders
The board of directors, management • Truthfully report company’s situation and
and all staff shall commit to moral future trends to all stakeholders equally
principles, equitable treatment to all on a timely manner.
stakeholders and perform their duties for • Shall not exploit the confidential
the company’s interest with dedication, information for the benefit of related
integrity, and transparency. parties or personal gains.
• Shall not disclose any confidential
information to external parties.

CG Channels Corporate Management Office


Thai Oil Public Company Limited +66-0-2797-2999 ext. 7312-5
Should you discover any 555/1 Energy Complex Building A
ethical wrongdoing that is 11F, Vibhavadi Rangsit Road,
not compliance to CG policies +66-0-2797-2973
Chatuchak, Bangkok 10900
or any activity that could
harm the Company’s interest,
please inform: cgcoordinate@thaioilgroup.com http://www.thaioilgroup.com
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Thaioil Group Sustainable Development

Member of DJSI Emerging Markets for 2 consecutive years


• Highest Ranked Level in RobecoSAM Gold Class of Global Oil & Gas Companies
• No.1 in ENERGY industry around the WORLD (Industry Group Leader)
• No.1 in Oil & Gas Producers Worldwide (Industry Leader)
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Presentation Agenda

TOP GROUP BUSINESS OVERVIEW

KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

STRATEGIC INVESTMENT PLANS

MARKET OUTLOOK

LINEAR ALKYL BENZENE (LAB)


INTRODUCTION

APPENDIX
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TOP Group Business


Overview
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Strategic Relationship and Operational Integration with PTT

Thai Oil’s strong shareholder base

5.5%
• Benefits from PTT’s dual
20.3% role as our major
shareholder and key
49.1% business partner
• All transactions take
place at arm’s length
25.1% and in adherence with
strong corporate
PTT
49.1% governance principles
Foreign Investors
Local Investors
NVDR As of 27 Feb 2015

1. Long-term 2. Business 3. Operational


strategic partnership partnership synergies
Key strategic • Thai Oil is PTT’s • Product offtake • Freight costs reduction
benefits for Thai Oil principal refiner • Crude procurement • Knowledge transfer and shared
• Long-term strategic services
shareholder and joint • Close management collaboration
investment and secondment of trained staff
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TOP Group Synergy & Strategic Role in PTT Group Value Chain

Upstream Intermediate Downstream


Solvent
Pentane
Diversifying to a broad Hexane
range of downstream Toluene
SOLVENTS The majority of
Mixed-Xylene
products to enjoy higher refined petroleum
profit margins and Paraxylene products are sold
Mixed-Xylene domestically to
reduce earnings
Toluene PTT
volatility
AROMATICS Benzene

LPG
REFINERY
PLATFORMATE Gasoline
REFINED
CRUDE IMPORT PETROLEUM Jet/Kero
LONG RESIDUE Diesel
Fuel Oil

Lube Base Oil


Slack Wax
Extract
TDAE
LUBE BASE
Bitumen
PTT is our
POWER TP provides electricity and steam principal
domestic
NATURAL GAS to Thai Oil, TLB and TPX and sells customer for
its remaining power to the national our lube base
grid products

Thai Oil’s Businesses


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Key Milestones: 53 Years, A Long Track Record of Success

1961 – 1997 2004 – 2011 Today


Capacity expansion and initial stage of Listing, expansion and A leading integrated refining and
business diversification diversification petrochemical group in Asia Pacific

1961 1970 2004 • 275 kbd refinery ( approximately 25%


• Incorporated • Refining capacity • IPO and listed on the SET of Thailand’s total refining capacity)
expanded to 65 kbpd • Acquired remaining shares in • Nelson index 9.71
1964 Thai Paraxylene and Thai • Diversified business through 13
• Commenced 1989 Lube Base which became our subsidiaries 2013
operation with • Increased refining wholly-owned subsidiaries • The 3rd largest listed company
distillation capacity of capacity to by revenue in Thailand
2011
35 kbd 90 kbpd
• Simple refinery with
Nelson complexity 2013
Index ~ 41 2010 • Established LABIX to
produce LAB
2007 -2008 • Invested in power biz
via GPSC
2004
1993-1997
• TOP SPP for 239 MW
1970-1989
• Revenue 414,599 MB
1961 – 1964 2007 2010 • Net profit 10,394 MB
1993 • Increased refining capacity to 275 kbd • Established
Thaioil Ethanol 2011
• We expanded our refining capacity to 190 kbd
2008 • Production • 1st refinery in the Asia-
1994 – 1997 • The first refinery in Thailand with diesel expansion of Pacific region to
production to comply with the sulfur TDAE by manufacture diesel and
• Increased total refining capacity to 220 kbd
content requirements of Euro IV 50,000 tons per ULG in compliance with
• Initial investment in Thai Paraxylene (“TPX”) and
Thai Lube Base (“TLB”) • Capacity expansion of Thai Paraxylene annum the sulfur and BZ
• IPT became the first IPP to enter into a PPA with with total aromatics capacity of 900,000 aromatics content
EGAT2 with 700 MW capacity ; separately, Thaioil tons p.a. requirements of the
Power (“TP”) constructed the power generation • Invested in Solvents business in Euro IV
plant under the SPP with 118 MW capacity Thailand and Vietnam • Acquired 1st VLCC
Note 1. Based on our internal estimates using the methodology of the Nelson Complexity Index 2. The Electricity Generating Authority of
Thailand (“EGAT”) is the national grid
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Thai Oil Group Business Structure

100.0% 100.0% 74.0% PTT 26.0% 100.0% 100.0%


100%

Thai Paraxylene Thai Lube Base Thaioil Power Thaioil Marine Thaioil Ethanol
Thaioil (TOP) (TPX) (TLB) (TP) (TM) (TET)
Aromatics Capacity: Lube Base Oil • 4 Oil & Chemical Tankers Mitr Phol 35.0% Padaeng
Sells Electricity/Steam to
Capacity : Paraxylene Capacity : Capacity :51,250 DWT 30.0% 35.0%
Group Maesod Clean Energy
275,000 barrels/day 527,000 tons/annum Base Oil Small Power Producer • Crude Tankers: 3VLCCs
Mixed Xylene 267,015 tons/annum Capacity: 881,050 DWT (MCE)
Program
52,000 tons/annum Bitumen • 11 crew & utility boats Sugarcane Based Ethanol
3-on-1 Combined Cycle
Benzene 350,000 tons/annum (120 DWT each) Capacity : 230,000 lts/day
Electricity 118 MW
259,000 tons/annum TDAE Steam 168 tons/hour • 2 Large vessels for crude, 50.0% Sapthip (SAP)
Total 838,000 tons/annum 67,520 tons/annum feedstock & product Cassava Based Ethanol
TOP SPP Company storage and transportation
75.0% Mitsui 25.0% Capacity : 200,000 lts/day
100.0% Limited services
LABIX Company Limited 2 Small Power Producers Others 57.4% BCP 21.3%
Platformate Capacity: 200,000 DWT 21.3%
(LABIX) Total capacity: 239 MW Ubon Bio Ethanol (UBE)
1.8 million tons/annum • Ship management services
LAB producer and distributor COD 2016 Cassava/Molasses Based Plant
Capacity: 100 KTA COD: 2015 TP 27.7% PTT 40.4% Capacity : 400,000 lts/day
PTT 30.1% 9.2 % Others 50.4% 100.0%
100.0% Thaioil Energy Services
PTTGC 30.3%
(TES)
Thaioil 11.9%
Global Power Synergy Thappline (THAP) Proceeds the business on
Thaioil Solvent Company Limited various professional of
Multi-product Pipeline
Through TOP Solvent (TS) management services
Capacity:26,000 m.lts/y
80.5% 100.0% Principal power plant of PTT PTT 40.0%
capacity 1,038 MW of electricity PTTGC 20.0% 20.0%
1,340 tons/hour of steam IRPC 20.0%
Sak Chaisidhi Solvent distribute Top Solvent PTT Energy Solutions
Total aggregate capacity PTT ICT Solutions
(SAKC) in Thailand Vietnam (PTTES)
1,357 MW (PTT ICT)
Capacity : Solvent distribute in PTT Group Provides engineering
20.0%
141,000 tons/annum Vietnam 80.0% technique consulting
services

Refinery
Aromatics
Net Profit Contribution 43% 31% 15% 10% Lube Base
Others
(Avg. from 2006 – Q1/15)
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Process Linkage: Beauty of Integration

PROCESS FLOWCHART
Thai Paraxylene
ADIP FUELGAS

Thai Oil ISOM


LPG
20,000
MX
HDT-1 MX
40,000
HDT-2
HDT-3 CCR-1
ULG95
85,000 CCR-2
CDU-1 50,000 ULG91
45,000
KMT-1
CDU-2 JET
KMT-2
50,000

CDU-3
165,000 KEROSENE
HVU-1 Thai Lube Base
HVU-2

HVU-3 FCCU HDS-2


10,400
95,000 HDS-3
HMU-1 AGO
HMU-2 75,000
TCU 140TH2
19,000
DIESEL
HCU-
1HCU 2
50,000

FUEL OIL
BBU
BITUMEN
1,800
SRU-1/2
ADIP
SRU-3/4
SULPHUR
2x210
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One of Region’s Leading Refineries

Total Thailand crude refining capacity 1,241 kbd 2014 Market shares for refined petroleum product3

Thai Oil 22% Share


Nameplate Capacity 31%
Fang (3 kbpd) market
shares
Thai Oil (275 kbpd)
PTT’s Principal Refiner

BCP2 (120 kbpd) Esso (177 kbpd) Nelson Index - Regional Comparison

14.0 13.8
IRPC2 (215 kbpd)
9.84 9.2
PTTGC2 (280kbpd)
SPRC2 (155 kbpd) 6.6 6.5
4.6
RPCC (17 kbpd)

RPL JX TOP PTTGC Esso Sinopec SK Corp


Remarks:
• Nelson Complexity Index measures refinery’s upgrading capability for comparison
• It is the ratio of complexity barrels divided by crude distillation capacity
Source: The company and broker research

Note: 1. Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy Thailand,
2. PTT holds a 27.22% interest in BCP, a 38.51% interest in IRPC, a 48.9% interest in PTTGC, and a 36% interest in SPRC
3. Calculate by total domestic sales of refined petroleum products of Thai Oil in 2014 divided by total sales of petroleum products in Thailand in 2014 excl LPG. Source from EPPO
4. Based on our internal estimates using the methodology of the Nelson Complexity Index.
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Strategic Location with Competitive Advantages in Access to Key Markets

Close proximity to the key domestic markets Access to Indochina markets through deep water ports

Our strategic location


provide us with LAOS

1. Close proximity with the


key domestic markets and VIETNAM

Indochina Bangkok
Sriracha (124 km from BKK)
2. Direct access to deep water
Map Ta Phut
ports
Gulf of Thailand
3. Direct connection with
multi-product pipelines THAILAND

CAMBODIA

Direct connection with product pipeline system  Our plants are located within the Sriracha
Saraburi Complex

Don Mueng Lamlukka


 SBM provides direct access to deep water
ports, and ability to receive feedstock
Suvarnabhumi
BCP Ø24”, 134 km directly from VLCC

ESSO Sriracha  We also enjoy available connections to


delivery networks such as multi-product
PTTGC Map Ta Phut pipelines, including Thappline
SPRC
IRPC

Product pipeline system


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Optimized & Flexible Operations…Superior Performance

Crude Assays based on Sources of Product Spread over Domestic demand for
TOP configuration Crude output Dubai (US$/bbl) petroleum products*

1
% S = 1.54 % S = 2.13 % S = 0.79
Others 3% 4% -14.6 LPG
API = 31.2 API = 30.4 API = 39.7 14% 11% PLATFORMATE
Far East 19.3 24%

Short Residue Waxy Gas/Distillates 10% 15%


Local 15.3
18%
GASOLINE

22%
41% 17.1 12% JET
58% Middle
61%
East
1. LPG price = 73%
LPG CP - 20$/ton)
32% 41%
since 2 Feb 15 16.3 42% DIESEL
onwards.
29%
32%
27%
13% 7% 7% -1.8 4% FUEL OIL
Oman Dubai Murban Q1/15 Q1/15

Thai Oil is able to diversify its • Flexibility in crude intake allows diversification of crude types to source cheaper crude
type of crude intake and • Flexibility in product outputs by maximizing middle distillates (jet and diesel) by adjusting
product outputs to maximize production mode to capture domestic demand and price premium
demand and margin • Maximize Platformate production to capture higher margin on aromatics
• Minimize fuel oil output to avoid lower margin products

*Source: Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy Thailand


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Strong Domestic Sales despite Flatten Local Demand

Domestic Oil Demand / Domestic Refinery Intake Domestic Oil Demand


*including TOP intake (Excluding TOP = 70%)
Utilization = 106%
KBD
KBD Q1/14 Q1/15 0.9%
*
1,200
93% 89% 92% 92% 92% 95% 92% 87% 100% 1,000
86% 85% 85%
1,000 80% 800
800
60%
600 600 2.2%
40% -7.9%
400 724 698 667 700 732 706 668 706 756 400 13.9% 5.4%
698 701 -17.8%
200 20%
200
- 0%
0
LPG Mogas Jet/Kero Diesel Fuel Oil Total
Demand
Domestic Demand/Sales Net Export Others Utilization Rate
including LPG from refinery only

Sales breakdown by customers TOP’s Domestic & Export Sales

Refinery Intake
292 296 289
13% 10%7% (KBD)
9% 1%
FY/14 2% Q1/15 19% 19% 12%
Sales Sales 24% Export
38% Breakdown 22% 39% Breakdown
Domestic Domestic 88%
Domestic 81% 81%
Jobbers Jobbers
2% 15% 2% 17%

Export 19% Export 19% Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14


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Competitive Performance Benchmarking

Solomon (Bi-Annually) Shell Global Solutions International (SGSi)

2012
2010

Operational Performance Review

Hydrocarbon Management Review

Operational Troubleshooting

Staff Competency Development

Knowledge Management & Research


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TOP Group Key Highlights

Thailand’s largest and Diversified earnings

2
one of the region’s through integration

1
most advanced and with, and significant
competitive refineries contribution from, our
subsidiaries

Strategic relationship Strategic location with Industry with high

3 4 5
and operational competitive advantages barriers to entry and
integration with PTT as in access to key markets strong market
the Group’s principal positioning
refiner

Technological Highly experienced Strong financial profile

6 7 8
superiority, logistical management team
advantages & cost
leadership
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Key Financial Highlights


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Q1/15 Key Industry Highlights

Refinery Implication
 $5/bbl drop in Dubai crude price from ongoing 1.5 $/bbl inventory loss
oversupply in crude oil market (from huge stock loss 11.2 $/bbl
in Q4/14 )
 Strong demand during winter season plus benefit from Improved market GRM
low oil price (i.e. low F&L ) supported market GRM (from 8.2 to 8.8 $/bbl Q/Q)

Aromatic
 Squeezed BZ margin due to weak downstream market and Pressured Aromatic
more supply from naphtha crackers, while Stable PX Margins
(GIM contribution from (0.3)
to (0.4) $/bbl Q/Q)

Base Oil
 Higher restocking demand ahead of oil changing season Improved Base Oil
 Lower feedstock cost following HSFO support margins margins
(GIM contribution from 0.4 to
 However oversupply of Gr II/III still pressured market 0.7 $/bbl Q/Q)

$/BBL Q1/15 Q4/14


Market GIM 8.9 8.0
Refinery + Aromatics + Base Oil Stock Gains / (Loss) (1.5) (11.2)
Accounting GIM 7.4 (3.2)
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Q1/15 Key Operation and Financial Highlights

Operations / Financial Highlights TOP Group Net Profit


 Maximized refinery run at 106% while Unit : million THB
Net Operating Profit before tax Stock G/(L)
optimized Aromatics unit at 66% & Lube at
Reversal of NRV/(NRV) Others i.e. FX G/(L), Hedging G/(L),
79% to support refinery DTA / tax expense etc.

 FX Gains from THB appreciation


676 MB Q1/15 Q4/14 R Q1/14 R
 Commodities hedging gains 76 MB 4,498 MB* (6,444) MB 2,468 MB

 7% Effective tax rate from utilizing


BOI Tax privilege of environmental
projects 716 MB 2,272 1,616**
1,087
 Maintain strong credit rating 3,938 4,192 2,814
 Moody’s Baa1(Stable Outlook) (1,273) (1,421)
 S&P BBB (Stable Outlook) (439) (12)
 Fitch AA- (Stable Outlook)
(10,454)
 Adopted TFRS10 on consolidated
Financial Statement since 1 Jan 2015
(1,798)
 Sustainability Development
 SET Sustainability Award & ESG 100 R Restated financial statement . As on 1 January 2015, Thaioil Group adopted TFRS10.
Certificate *redeemed BOI privilege for tax exemption on environmental projects in Q1/15 = 716 MB,
2014 = 0 MB
** Mainly from deferred tax assets -loss carry forward
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Integrated Margin & Competitive Cash Cost


Gross Refining Margin Refinery’s Cash Cost
(Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl)
Marketing GRM Accounting GRM (Marketing GRM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (Net)
8.8 *Including
6.4 5.7 7.3 MTA cost
6.2
5.3 0.14 $/bbl
4.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 5.1
3.4 3.3
2.2 2.1 2.3 2.1
1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6
1.1 0.7 0.8 0.7
0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4
0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5* 1.4
*Including MTA cost in MTA period since mid Jun-late July 2014 for 46 days
(TOP MTA cost in 2014 = 436 MB)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15

Gross Integrated Margin Group’s Cash Cost


(Unit: US$/bbl) (Unit: US$/bbl)
Marketing GIM Accounting GIM (Marketing GIM + Stock G/L) Operating Cost Interest Expense (Net)
TOP TPX TLB
*Including
9.3 8.9 MTA cost
7.9 7.8 1.3 7.6 7.6 0.20 $/bbl
6.9 6.8 0.7 7.4
0.7 6.1 6.3 1.3 6.2 0.7
2.1 0.9 0.9
4.3 4.3 0.7 5.6
1.1 0.1
1.0 2.1 1.7 0.9 0.9 1.8 0.7
1.0 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.5
0.7 0.7 2.6 8.6 7.1 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.3
6.1 1.1 5.9 5.4
1.9 0.7
2.6 4.4 5.1 4.3 4.1 4.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7
2.6 2.9 3.13.9 0.1 0.5 0.5 1.7 1.8*
1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6
(0.4)(0.4)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15
*Including MTA cost in MTA period since mid Jun-late July 2014 for 46 days
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15 ( TOP group MTA cost in 2014 = 609 MB)
Financial -23-

Financial Performance
Sales Revenue EBITDA
Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB
447,432 EBITDA (excl stk G/L & NRV) EBITDA (incl stk G/L & NRV)
446,241
399,125 414,575
390,090
318,391 28,760
284,123 23,868 22,808 22,337
22,897 20,350
21,393
17,381 19,713 19,541
14,585
12,846
71,366 7,949 6,209
5,210
2,651

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013R 2014R Q1/15 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013R 2014R Q1/15

Net Profit Free Cash Flow*


Unit: Million THB Unit: Million THB
NP (excl stk G/L & NRV before tax) NP (incl stk G/L & NRV)
16,946
14,853 14,777 14,035
12,750 13,753
11,435 12,062 12,320
9,961 10,349
8,956 9,316
6,999 6,692 6,791
5,652 4,498 5,767
3,499 2,157 3,801
224

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q1/15


(4,140)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013R 2014R Q1/15 CAPEX (PP&E)-Net
R Restated financial statement 6,284 1,300 3,187 3,850 6,103 12,330 18,666 2,622
* Free Cash Flow (FCF) = Operating cash flow – CAPEX(PP&E)-Net
Financial -24-

Strong Financial Performance


Statements of Financial Position Consolidated Long-Term Debt as at 31 Mar 15 1)
(Unit: million THB)
Total Long-Term Debt Net Debt
193,607 200,044 80,193 million THB 27,744 million THB
Cash & ST Trade Payable (US$ 2,452 million) (US$ 848 million)
investment 46,483 26,160 53,366 27,452 / Others As at 31 Mar 15 (32.70 THB/US$)

Current 48,981
47,277 80,193 2% THB
Assets 79,603 LT Debt1) 4%4% Loan
Non-Current 10%
Assets 98,143 99,401 92,399 THB US$
87,844 Equities
Bond Bond
32% 58%
31 Dec 14R 31 Mar 15 89%

R Restated financial statement as TOP has adopt TFRS 10


1) Including current portion of Long-Term Debt Interest Rate Currency
11% Float 42% THB
Financial Ratios 89%Fixed 58% USD
Net Debt / adj. EBITDA* Net Debt / Equity TOP avg. loans life 11.2 Yrs

Cost of Debt (Net***)

1.7 TOP Group 3.31%


1.6 1.3 **
0.3 0.4 0.3 ***Calculated by interest expense net off interest income as per FS as at 31 Mar 15

31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Mar-15 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-14 31-Mar-15

* EBITDA(excl stock gain/loss & Reversal of NRV/(NRV)) Baa1 BBB AA-


** Calculated by Q1 EBITDA excl stock gain/loss & Reversal of NRV/(NRV) * 4 Stable Outlook Stable Outlook Stable Outlook
Financial -25-
Dividend Payment

Dividend Policy :
Not less than 25% of consolidated net profit after deducting reserves, subject to cash flow and investment plan
THB/Share

n.a. n.a.

9.19 9.40

7.82 8.13
7.28 EPS
Total dividend
5.91 6.04 Interim dividend
5.09 Dividend payout
48% 4.41
45% 4.50 43% 45% 45% 45% 45%
40%
3.50 3.50 3.30
2.75 2.55 2.70
25% 2.30
1.80 1.75 1.75 2.00
1.50 1.30
0.11 1.05 1.16
0.60 0.50 0.80 0.56
FY/04 FY/05 FY/06 FY/07 FY/08 FY/09 FY/10 FY/11 FY/12 FY/13 FY/14

-1.97
Yield* 4.0% 5.6% 5.6% 6.2% 5.2% 7.1% 4.0% 4.7% 4.2% 3.6% 2.3%
* Based on average TOP price in each year

TOP
price
44.7 63.0 62.7 72.7 53.3 35.9 49.9 69.8 65.1 64.6 50.4
-26-

Strategic Investment Plans


Project Update -27-
Broadening Growth, Capturing Step Out ,Pursuing Sustainability

Operational Excellence Growth (Core & Step Out)

Core Business

Quick win
Value Chain Enhancement
Adjacent

Logistics New Business

AEC countries

Geography
Updated CAPEX plan -28-
Strategic Investment Plan

CAPEX Plan (Unit US$ million) Remaining capital investment


Our CAPEX Projects COD Total
Project
investments will Cost 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
cover improvements
Refinery upgrading 2014 137 32
in plants reliability,
efficiency & Reliability, efficiency and - 353 103 58 14 8 31
flexibility improvement
flexibility,
environmental & fuel Environmental and fuel - 269* 89 12
efficiency improvement
efficiency
improvement as well CDU-3 preheat train 2014 68 45 15
as value chain Benzene Derivatives - LAB 2015 300 141 77 10 16
enhancement
Power – 2 SPPs 2016 380 140 192 48
Solvent expansion – SAKC 2014 64 13 7
Thai Oil has Marine fleets expansion 2014/15 56 15 8
sufficient internal
Lorry Expansion 2016 55 28 27
cash flow to fund
this investment plan Total 1,682 578 396 98 24 31
Notes: Excluding approximately 40 M$/year for annual maintenance
*anticipated to receive BOI for environmental projects
$153m

Update as of Feb 2015


Project Update -29-
Margin Contribution from completed projects in Q1/15

Project Project Details Actual Benefit Realization


HVU Revamp: • Modify HVU-2
• Phase I: • Capable to produce more diesel/jet at Benefit Realization Benefit
PSA-3 the expense of fuel oil (1-2%) ($/bbl)
• Phase II: • Capable to process cheaper heavier  Total Benefit from Fuel + 0.32
HVU-2 crude oil Oil upgrading & crude
Revamp • Expected Incremental benefit to MKT optimization
GRM ~ 0.2-0.4 $/bbl

• CAPEX = 137 M$
• COD = May-14

Project Project Details Actual Benefit Realization


CDU-3 Crude • Set up, replace & rearrange heat
Preheat Train exchangers in CDU-3 to reduce fuel Benefit Realization Benefit
Improvement usage ($/bbl)

• Expected Benefit = ↓ fuel usage in  Total Benefit from Fuel + 0.05


CDU-3 ~ 15 % or equivalence to 20 Saving & more jet
MW (~0.1 $/bbl) & ↑ jet fuel production
production

• CAPEX = 68 M$
• COD = Aug-14
Project Update -30-
Key Project Progress Update : LAB

Project Detail Progress


• TPX JV with Mitsui (75% : 25%) 92%
• Upgrade existing Benzene and Kerosene into higher
Linear Alkyl valued product; LAB which is an intermediate feedstock
Benzene in production of surfactant (detergent)
(LAB)
• Capacity: 100 KTA (First Integrated LAB Plant in SEA)
• Benefit = add to GIM ~ 0.4-0.6 $/bbl
• CAPEX = 400 M$
• COD = End 2015

LABIX : Feedstock / Products


KTA %

Feedstock

Kerosene (from TOP) 532 94%


Benzene (from TPX) 33 6%
Product/ By-products

LAB 100 18%


By-products (mostly Kerosene 463 82%
components) (to TOP)
Project Update -31-
Key Project Progress Update : 2 SPPs

Project Detail Progress


• Low risk power business enhance income stability 74%
• Support reliability of electricity & steam supply for
TOP Group
TOP SPP • Develop 2 new SPP power plants;
(2 blocks of SPP) • Total power capacity 239 MW (~20% used in
TOP complex ~80% sales to national Grid
under firmed contract)
• Total steam capacity 498 T/H (100% used in
TOP complex)

• CAPEX = 380 M$
• COD = 2Q 2016
Project Update -32-
Progress on Myanmar Project

Study Project Detail Progress


• On mid-July, 2014, Myanmar Petrochemical  PTT/TOP had
Enterprise (MPE) issued Invitation to Tender, submitted proposal on
specifying the proposal deadline by mid-Oct, Oct 13, 2014
Refinery 2014
Upgrading
Project in • Planned Two Phase Proposal (Expect result
Myanmar (TOP in collaboration with PTT Group) announcement by Q1/15)
1 - Revamp existing Thanlyin Refinery
2 – Option to Develop new green field refinery

Thanlyin Refinery Thanlyin Refinery


Yangon

Thanlyin

Thanlyin Refinery Info


 Total Capacity 20 KBD
 Year Built 1963
 Location 14 km from Yangon
-33-

Q1/15 & 2015 MARKET OUTLOOK

• Crude Oil
• Petroleum Products
• Aromatics
• Base Oil & Bitumen
-34-

CRUDE OIL
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -35-

2015 Global GDP Growth by IMF

IMF Maintained the Global GDP growth at 3.5%

Growth 2014 2015 2016


(%YoY) China US EU World

15% Apr-15(1) Jan-14(2) Apr-15(1) Jan-15(2) Apr-15(1)

USA 2.4% 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1%

10% EU 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6%

China 7.4% 7.1% 6.8 % 6.3% 6.3%

5% 3.9% 3.5% 3.8%


2.8% 3.2% Japan -0.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2%

- India 7.2% 7.4% 7.2% 6.5% 7.5%


0%
ASEAN-5(5) 4.6% 5.4% 5.2% 5.3% 5.3%

Thailand 0.7%(3) 4.0%(4) 3.8%(3) N/A (4) 3.9%(3)


-5%
World 3.4% 3.8% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8%

Sources:
(1) IMF Apr‘15 (2) IMF Jan’15
(3) BOT Dec, 2014 (4) BOT Dec, 2014
(5)ASEAN-5 includes Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -36-

Non-OPEC Demand Growth Projection

IEA forecasted 2015’s global oil demand to increase by 1.1 MBD mainly from Asia

Demand Growth
IEA (MBD) (MBD)
2013 91.9 1.3 The global oil demand will grow by 1.1 MBD in 2015,
2014 92.5 0.7 supported by improved global economic conditions.
2015 93.6 1.1
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report April 2015
Macroeconomics & Crude Prices -37-

Non-OPEC Supply Growth Projection

IEA revised down 2015’s Non-OPEC oil supply growth by 350 KBD to 0.6 MBD.

Remarks: Non-OPEC Supply excl. Biofuels/Processing G/(L)

Non OPEC
Growth
IEA Supply
(MBD)
(MBD)
2013 50.5 1.2 IEA forecasted 2015’s oil supply from non-OPEC
2014 52.4 1.9 producers to rise by 0.6 MBD, mainly from North
2015 53.0 0.6 America.
Source: IEA, Oil Market Report April 2015
Refinery -38-
Crude Prices Rebound in 2H-15
as the Market Strives to Find the Demand-Supply Balance
Dubai Price Movement
$/BBL Shale Oil Boom
110.0 Dramatic Declines in
100.0 Oil Rigs & CAPEX Cuts
90.0
80.0 Conflict in Yemen
70.0
60.0
OPEC’s Meeting:
No Output Cut Iran’s Final Nuclear
50.0
Deal Deadline
40.0
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
Actual Forecast *Q2TD (as of 7th May): $59.79/BBL

Key Highlights

• Decelerated non-OPEC oil supply growth

• Geopolitical risks remain in attention

• Higher oil demand bolstered by improved economy


Refinery -39-

Decelerated Non-OPEC Oil Supply Growth

A Dramatic Plunge in U.S. Oil Rigs B Slowing Shale Production Growth


Oil Rigs Oct’14 Peak $/BBL Forecast
KBD
1800 1609 140 1250
120 2015 2016
1400 100 750
Almost 60% 80
1000 250
Drop in Oil Rigs
60
40 -250
600 1-May-15,
679 20 -750
200 0
Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15

Oil Rigs Dubai (RHS) Bakken Eagle Ford Niobrara Permian


Sources: EIA , Baker Hughes Sources: EIA, JP Morgan (2015)

C Stable U.S. Crude Production in Q2 D Global Oil Supply


MBD U.S. Crude Production MBD

10.0 98
Non-OPEC supply slows
9.0 96 down
8.0
Flat Rate of 94
7.0
Production
6.0 92
5.0
4.0 90
1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
Feb-11 Dec-11 Oct-12 Aug-13 Jun-14 Apr-15

Source: EIA (2015) Source: IEA (2015)


Refinery -40-

Geopolitical Risks Remain in Attention

A Prolonged Tension in Yemen B Relieved Iran Sanction

KBD Iran’s Production and Exports KBD


Declined Significantly.

Bab el-
Mandeb

Crude Transits via MBD


4.0
Yemen’s
Bab el-Mandeb 3.0
Source: IEA, Morgan Stanley (2015)
2.4
2.0 1.9
Risks to strategic 1.0
shipping route 0.9 1.2
0.0
Likely unchanged exports in 2015
Proxy war Y2013 Y2014

between Saudi North Bound Keep an eye on 30 MBBL floating oil


South Bound
Arabia and Iran
Source: EIA (23 April 2015)
Refinery -41-

Higher Oil Demand Bolstered by Improved Economy

A World Oil Balance B Global Crude Oil Balance

MBD MBD
3.0
98 Crude oil surplus
Non-OPEC supply narrows down
96
growth slows down
2.0

94

1.0
92
Recovering oil
demand
90 0.0
1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15
Demand Supply

Sources: IEA (Apr’15), JP Morgan(2015) Sources: IEA (Apr’15)

Improved U.S. demand as a result of economic recovery


Exceptionally, strong Indian demand growth, tracking the robust economic
expansion.
-42-

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
Refinery -43-

Firm Refinery Margins in 2015

Singapore Cracking GRM ($/BBL)


Winter Chinese New Year
demand

Strong Gasoline
Restocking Margin
Q1/14: $6.3/BBL
Q1/15: $8.6/BBL
Q2/14: $5.8/BBL Q4/14: $6.2/BBL
Q3/14: $4.8/BBL

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

Actual Forecast *Q2TD (as of 7th May): $7.47/BBL

($/BBL) 2014 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-TD* 2H-15** Key Highlights


ULG95-DB 14.3 13.4 15.3 17.2 Strong Gasoline demand due to
JET-DB 15.9 17.7 17.1 13.5
low prices
Delayed refinery expansion in
GO-DB 16.1 16.0 16.3 13.8 India
HSFO-DB (8.3) (5.6) (1.8) (3.6) Winter demand for Jet and Gasoil
Remarks: *as of 7 th May 15 , **Compared to 1H-15
Refinery -44-

Strong Gasoline Demand due to Low Prices

A AP Gasoline Demand B US Gasoline Demand


KBD KBD
7000
2015Y : 304 KBD 10000
2015Y : 145 KBD
2014Y : 233 KBD 2014Y : 80 KBD
6500 9500

6000 9000

5500 Upbeat Chinese and 8500 Low pump prices


Indian demand bolster demand
5000 8000
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

Source: FACTs , National Statistic Source: EIA STEO (Apr 2015)

C Chinese Vehicle Sales D U.S. Light Vehicle Sales


Million Units Million Units
25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Bloomberg, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Refinery -45-

Delayed Indian Refinery Expansion

Addition
CDU Addition VS Additional Demand – AP & ME Nameplate
(start-up Country Company
(KBD)
AP Additional Demand ME Additional Demand period)
ME Addition China Q1-15 UAE 417 Ruwais
Australia Japan Q2-15 China 100 Local Rizhao Lanqiao
India Vietnam (Dec’14 > May’15)
Other AP Net Addition Q3-15 China 30 Sinopec Jiujang
KBD
1400 Q4-15 China 140 CNOOC/Ningbo Daxie
India 300 IOC Paradip
1200 (Jan’15 > Oct’15)
New Zealand 8 Marsden Point
1000 Q1-16 10
816 847 Pakistan Pakistan Refinery
764
800 Q2-16 India 112 BPCL Kochi
649 136
550 Qatar Ras Laffan
600
Mongolia 41 Mongol Sekiyu
400 Q3-16 China 60 CNOOC Taizhou

200 88 China 200 CNPC/SA Anning


South Korea 102 Hyundai Lotte
0
Closure
-200 Q2-15 Australia -95 BP Bulwer
Q4-15 China -80 Local refineries
-400
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Japan -93 Nansei Sekiyu KK

Note: Adjusted capacity based on start-up period Taiwan -93 CPC Corporation
(Effective additional capacity)
Q3-16 Japan -93 Cosmo oil
Q4-16 China -111 Local refineries
Sources FACTs Semi Annual Reports, Spring 2015, Reuters, Bloomberg, TOP estimate
Thailand Oil Demand -46-

Recovered Thailand’s Oil Demand in 2015

Thailand Petroleum Demand Factors to Watch


Year on Year 2013 2014 2015F C
Energy Policy
Mogas A +6.7% +3.8% +4.3%
GSH91 E10 Phase out
Jet/Kero +9.5% -1.0% +4.5%

Diesel A +1.9% +0.9% +1.9%

Fuel Oil -8.4% -3.9% -4.5% Economic Stimulus Program


Total +3.4% +1.0% +2.8% Public investment on
+2.9% infrastructure projects
GDP Growth +0.7% +3.8%B

Remarks : (A) Mogas and diesel included ethanol and biodiesel, respectively
(B) Forecasted by BOT (Monetary Policy Report as of Mar-15 )
(C) Forecasted by TOP

Thailand oil demand growth is expected to increase by 2.8% YoY


supported by economic improvement
-47-

AROMATICS
Aromatics -48-

Stable Aromatics Market in 2H-15

Aromatics Market
PX-ULG95 ($/TON) BZ-ULG95 ($/TON)
371
326
279 273 277 268 286
252 255 254
221 207
178
98

2Q15TD*
Y2014

Y2015
1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2H15
1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15TD*
Y2014

2H15

Y2015
Actual Forecast Actual Forecast

($/TON) 2014 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-TD* 2H-15**


Key Highlights
Major plant turnarounds limited
PX-ULG95 279 252 255 277
supply in Asia
BZ-ULG95 268 207 98 178 Recovering downstream demand
Remarks : *as of 7th May 15 ,
**Compared to 1H-15 New plant startups
Aromatics -49-
Stable PX Market on Firm Demand amid Rising
New Capacity
A Seasonal Turnaround Supports PX Price B Firm Demand from Low Chinese Inventory
KTA Days of
Demand
1200
50
1000
1,020 40
800
738 30
600
626
400 20
422
200 10
Chinese Polyester Inventory
0 0
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

Jul-13

Mar-14

Nov-14
Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Jan-15

Mar-15
AP PX Capacity Turnaround

C AP PX Additional/Closure Capacity Country Plan KTA Company

KTA Korea 1Q15 -200 Lotte Chemical1


1000 800
800 Kazakhstan 2Q15 469 JSC KazMunaiGas
600 469
400 120 Ningbo Zhongjin
200 China 3Q15 800
Petrochemical 1
0
-200
-400 -200 Thailand 4Q15 120 PTTGC
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Total 2015 = 1,189
AP Nameplate PX Additional/Closure Capacity
Source: PCI Xylene & Polyesters as of Feb’15 and IHS as of Apr’15
Aromatics -50-
BZ Improves on Recovering Downstream Market

A Seasonal Turnaround Supports BZ Price B Recovering SM P2F Buoys BZ Demand


KTA
$/TON
800 300
700 SM P2F 258
737 250
600
500 200 163
530 150
400 498 150 131
437
300 87
100 69
200
100 50
0 0

2Q15TD
1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
AP BZ Capacity Turnaround

Rising Naphtha over LPG Price Improving Chinese BZ Import


C Limits BZ Output D Supports BZ price
$/TON KT
160 137 250
121 Chinese BZ Import
120 200
89
80 150
40 29 100
9
0 50
-40 -13 0
2Q15TD
3Q14
1Q14

2Q14

4Q14

1Q15

May-13
Jan-13

Mar-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

Mar-14

May-14

Jul-14

Sep-14

Nov-14

Jan-15

Mar-15
Naphtha MOPJ-LPG
Source: IHS as of Apr’15 and Platts as of Apr’15
Aromatics -51-
PX and BZ Demand/Supply Outlook

A AP/ME PX Capacity* and Demand B New Polyester Plants Support PX Market


Forecast Forecast
MTA MTA
2010-2014 2015 2016-2019
60 Dem: 7.2% Dem: 5.6% Dem: 5.9% 8
Cap: 8.1% Cap: 9.3% Cap: 5.9% 7
50
52 6
40 45 46 48 5
41 37 39 41
30 37 35 4
31 33 3
20
2
10 1
0 0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Demand Capacity AP Polyester Nameplate Additional Capacity
Remark : * Nameplate capacity Source: PCI Xylene & Polyesters as of Feb’15 and TOP estimate

C AP/ME BZ Capacity* and Demand D Rising BZ Import from North America


MTA Forecast Forecast MT
60 2010-2014 2015 2016-2019 3
Dem: 5.1% Dem: 4.3% Dem: 4.2%
50
Cap: 5.6% Cap: 3.6% Cap: 3.3%
40 43 2
38 39 40 41
30 37
29 30 31
20 25 26 28 1
10
0 0
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Demand Capacity North America BZ import

Remark : * Nameplate capacity Source: IHS as of Mar’15 and TOP estimate


-52-

BASE OIL & BITUMEN


Base Oil & Bitumen -53-

Stable TLB Margin in 2H-15

Base Oil Market

Base Oil Benchmark Spread ($/TON) Gr.II-Gr.I Price Difference ($/TON)

90
495 486 501 499 493
70
369 379
50

30

10
2Q15TD*
Y2014

Y2015
1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2H15
-10
2012 2013 2014 2015
YTD2015*

500SN-HSFO (Actual) Forecast 150N-150SN 500N-500SN

($/TON) 2014 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-TD* 2H-15** Key Highlights

500SN-HSFO 495 493 369 379


Widening spread between Gr.II and
Gr.I lowered price competition
Remarks : *as of 7th May 15 ,
**Compared to 1H-15

Source: ICIS Publication (2014-2015)


Base Oil & Bitumen -54-

Stable TLB Margin in 2H-15

Bitumen Market

Bitumen Benchmark Spread ($/TON) Domestic Bitumen Demand (KTON/M)


Average Demand Growth (2011-2015): 11% p.a.
85 100

80
23
12
60

40
-32
20
-69 -66
-77
0
1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15TD*
Y2014

2H15

Y2015
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(1)
(1)averaged from Q1-2015 data

Bitumen-HSFO (Actual) Forecast Average of domestic demand per month

($/TON) 2014 Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-TD* 2H-15** Key Highlights

Bitumen-HSFO -32 85 23 12 High domestic demand growth


Slow demand in rainy season
Remarks : *as of 7th May 15 ,
**Compared to 1H-15

Sources: ICIS Publication and DOEB (2015)


-55-

CONCLUSION
Conclusion -56-

2H-15 Market Outlook Conclusion

Refinery
• Crude prices recover, buoyed by U.S. oil production
growth slowdown and MENA tension.
• Modest GRM backed by Middle Distillate demand

Aromatics
• Stable Aromatics spread on recovering downstream
demand

Base Oil
• Stable Base oil spread on widen Gr.II-Gr.I price
difference
-57-

LINEAR ALKYL BENZENE (LAB)


INTRODUCTION

LAB Innovation for EXcellence


LAB -58-

Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)

Kerosene
Customers
Feedstock

LAS
Domestic

LAB

Benzene
Export
Feedstock

Products

Kerosene By Products
Return

Detergent Power Detergent Liquid


Naphtha
Fuel oil

*LAS = Linear Alkyl Benzene Sulfonate Concentrated Liquid Tablet Detergent Dish Washing
LAB -59-

SE Asia as a Net Importer

SE Asia LAB Balance


KTA

100

-100

-200

-300

-400

-500
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030

Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Other s

Source: MITSUI and TOP Estimation


LAB -60-

Benzene Value Added

Product Spread ($/Ton)


800

750 BZ price recovery


Bearish Crude market
700
and low BZ demand

650
Average 564 $/Ton
600

550

500
Higher US BZ import from Asia High BZ price from Dragon
450 pacific loss supply
400
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15

LAB CFR SEA - BZ FOB Korea

Source: ICIS Publication


LAB -61-

LABIX Competitive Advantages

Strong Local and Regional Demand First Integrated Plant in SEA

LABIX 100 KTA


(Integrated plant)
c
PT Unggul Indah
Philippines Cahaya (UIC)
Thailand Indonesia
(Non-integrated plant)

Vietnam
Strong Strategic Partner
Malaysia

Mitsui & Co.


Indonesia

- World leading LAB trading company

- Strong network with customers


-62-

APPENDIX

• Q1/15 Performance analysis


• World GRM / Inventories
• Thailand petroleum demand by products
• Implication of TFRS 10 adoption
-63-

Q1/15 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS


-64-
Thai Oil Refinery : Superior Performance…

Better Refinery Utilization Rate & Domestic Sales than industry average

TOP’s Refinery Utilization vs Industry * TOP’s Domestic Sale vs Industry *

TOP Refinery Overall Industry Domestic Sales Export Sales


(Thailand)
108%
106% 105%
19% 21% 19% 12% 18%
28%
95%
92%
86% 88% 82%
81% 79% 81%
72%

Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14 TOP Industry TOP Industry TOP Industry


Thailand Thailand Thailand
Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14

Remark: Some Local Refineries Shutdown in Q1/14


*Source : Department of Energy Business, Ministry of Energy
Refining -65-
Q1/15: Strong Demand…Decent Refining Margins

Dubai Crude Price & Key Petroleum Product Spreads Refinery Utilization
Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14
2014 2015 2014
106% 108% 105%
$/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD * FY14
DUBAI (DB) 104.4 106.1 101.5 74.4 51.9 59.6 96.6
ULG95 - DB 14.6 16.1 13.2 13.4 15.3 17.2 14.3 Dubai
JET - DB 17.0 14.3 14.5 17.7 17.1 13.5 15.9 - Excess OPEC & Non OPEC
supplies; unprecedented US
GO - DB 17.8 16.0 14.4 16.0 16.3 13.8 16.1 crude oil inventory.
HSFO - DB (8.5) (10.6) (8.4) (5.6) (1.8) (3.6) (8.3) - Strong U.S. Dollar
* As of 7 May 15
120
104 105 104 105 106 108 106 102 +Unrest in the Middle East
96
100 87 and North Africa including
Dubai Price
80
76 Libya, Iraq and Yemen.
(US$/bbl) 65
60 59
55 55
60 46
GRM
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
+Strong demand in winter
2014 2015
support product spread i.e.
Gross Refinery Margins - GRM Jet/GO/HSFO
2014 2015 2014 +Q/Q drop in oil price,
$/bbl Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY14 benefit GRM thru lower F&L

Marketing GRM 5.1 4.4 4.6 8.2 8.8 5.7


Stock G/(L) (1.7) 1.4 (5.2) (11.7) (1.5) (4.5)
Accounting GRM 3.4 5.8 (0.6) (3.5) 7.3 1.2
Aromatics -66-
Q1/15: Squeezed BZ...Pressured Aromatics Margin

Aromatics Spreads and Margins Aromatics Production

2014 2015 2014 Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14

$/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD * * 66% 89% 95%


FY14
PX*-ULG95 273 220 371 252 255 277 279
Paraxylene (PX)
BZ-ULG95 285 254 327 207 98 178 268
*CFR Taiwan 600 * * As of 7 May 15
+ PX plants maintenance
and cutback limit downside
415
450 381
353
317 − Ongoing PX oversupply
290 290
(US$/Ton) 273
242 248 266 251 224 277 278
300
340 191 180 191 333
372 − Soft PTA & Polyester
285 293 275 270 PX-ULG95 demand due to weak margin
150 232 241 228 229
184 BZ-ULG95
122 120 119 141
0 56

TPX’s Sales & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F)


(Unit : KTon)
Benzene (BZ)
51 BZ − Squeezed SM margin and
61 64
35
31
48 slow US import demand
127 106
20 129 103 MX − Excess BZ supplies from
69
Olefin plants switching their
PX
Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 feedstock to Naphtha as
more competitive during low
2014 2015 2014 oil price
$/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY14
P2F -$/ton 63 37 66 22 11 46
P2F -$/bbl 8.2 4.8 8.7 2.9 1.4 6.1
Lube Base Oil -67-
Q1/15: Restocking Demand…Improved Lube Margins

Base Oil & Bitumen Spreads & Margins Base oil Production

2014 2015 2014 Q1/15 Q4/14 Q1/14

$/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2TD * FY14 79% 80% 100%

500SN-HSFO 486 501 500 493 369 379 495


BITUMEN-HSFO (69) (77) (66) 85 23 12 (32) Lube Base Oil
* As of 7 May 15 + Demand from restocking
800 activities ahead of oil
493 483 486 506 505 492 497 501 507 534 454 490 changing season
600 430 390 369
400 312 366 500SN-HSFO
(US$/Ton)
76
145
73
+ Lower feedstock cost
200 32 (22) 19 27 (11)
(49) (78) (78) (68) (75) (90) (78) (74) (48) Bitumen-HSFO tracking oil price
0
-200 - Excess Gr.II supplies i.e.
US & South Korea pressured
TLB’s Sales & Product-To-Feed Margin (P2F) market
(Unit : KTon) Bitumen
Bitumen
90 89 87 93 98
TDAE/Extract/Slack + Stable Indonesian &
33 40 37 32 41 Wax
70 60 58 52 64 Vietnamese demand for
Base Oil road construction
Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15
+ Lower feedstock cost
2014 2015 2014 tracking oil price
$/ton Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY14 - Softer Chinese demand in
winter
P2F -$/ton 135 117 107 90 108 112
P2F -$/bbl 20.5 17.8 16.2 13.6 16.3 17.1
Performance Breakdown -68-

Beauty of Integration…Sustainable GIM

(Unit: US$/bbl)
19.2
8.2 4.8 8.7 6.1
2.9 1.4
Product to Feed
Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 FY/13 FY/14

8.2 8.8
5.1 4.4 4.6 4.3 5.7
Crude Marketing GRM
(excluded stock gain / loss)
Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 FY/13 FY/14

20.5 17.8 16.2 16.3 21.9 17.1


13.6
Product to Feed

Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 FY/13 FY/14

Marketing GIM Accounting GIM


(Unit: US$/bbl) TOP TPX TLB GIM (Unit: US$/bbl) TOP TPX TLB GIM
8.9
8.0 0.7
0.4 6.8 6.2 6.4 7.4
6.1 5.5 7.6
5.1 0.9 0.7
0.7 0.9
0.4 0.8 0.8 0.4
0.7 1.8 0.1 4.5 0.8
0.0 7.9 8.6 0.8 0.0 1.8
5.4 1.9
4.9 4.2 4.4 4.1 0.4 5.6 7.1 4.9
3.3 0.5 0.7 0.7
0.4 0.4 1.1 0.1
(0.3) (0.4) (3.3) (0.4)
(0.6)
(0.3)
(3.2)
Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 FY/13 FY/14 Q1/14 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1/15 FY/13 FY/14
Performance Breakdown -69-
Q1/15: Performance Breakdown

Utilization/Production (%) & Net Profit (million THB) Key Points


• TOP: max run to capture decent
margins
***74% • TPX: optimized run to support
holding refinery due to lower P2F
• TLB: improve commercial condition
due to higher demand ahead of lube
oil changing season
Refinery Aromatic Lube Solvents Marine Ethanol Power • TP: stable contribution as lower FT
but offset by lower cost
• TS: better net profit Q/Q as higher
sales volume and improved margin
• TM: higher ship utilization due to
106% 108% 98% 97% resumption of VLCC after dry dock
98% 93%
89% 91% 94% • TET: better performance from
79% 80% 72%* seasonally low feed stock price help
66% offset softer ethanol demand
58%
** 32.39%
holding StkG/(L)& Consol Excl
Q1/15 Q4/14 Consol Reversal Stock G/(L)
of NRV/ & Reversal of
(NRV) NRV/(NRV)
Q1/14R 1,929 (161) 437 43 39 64 71 18 2,468 (1,433) 3,901

Q4/14R (6,188) (633) 98 3 11 10 93 129 (6,444) (12,252) 5,808

Q1/15 4,497 (742) 322 34 47 45 90 173 4,498 999 3,499

389 ****
QoQ 10,685 (109) 224 31 36 35 (3) 44 10,942 13,251 (2,309)

YoY 2,568 (581) (115) (9) 8 (19) 19 155 2,030 2,432 (402)
*Since Q3/14 onwards, 2014 SAKC capacity = 141 KTA / 2013 SAKC capacity = 76 KTA
** Apply on an equity accounted basis in the consolidated financial statement.(GPSC has been held by TOP 11.88% and TP 27.71% since 10 Jan 13)
***TP performance are based on TOP’s equity portion (excluding 27.71% shares of profit from the investment in GPSC). TOP hold TP 74% since 4 Dec 12
**** Excluding net profit from TOP SPP and TES = 17 MB
Financial -70-
Consolidated Financial Performance

(million THB) Q1/15 Q4/14R QoQ+/(-) Q1/14R YoY+/(-)

Sales Revenue 71,366 88,545 (17,179) 112,228 (40,862)


Hedging Gain 76 328 (252) 602 (526)
EBITDA 6,209 (5,373) 11,582 4,102 2,107
EBITDA excl. Stk G/(L) & Reversal
5,210 6,879 (1,669) 5,535 (324)
of NRV/(NRV)
Financial Charges (956) (992) 36 (959) 3
FX G/(L) & CCS 676 (548) 1,224 692 (16)
(Tax Expense)/reversal (354) 1,451 (1,805) (208) (146)

Net Profit / (Loss) 4,498 (6,444) 10,942 2,468 2,030

EPS (THB/Share) 2.20 (3.16) 5.36 1.21 0.99

Stock G/(L)&Reversal of
999 (12,252) 13,251 (1,433) 2,432
NRV/(NRV)
Net Profit/ (Loss) excl. Stk G/(L)
3,499 5,808 (2,309) 3,901 (402)
and Reversal of NRV/(NRV)

THB/US$ - average 32.79 32.85 (0.06) 32.81 (0.02)


THB/US$ - ending 32.70 33.11 (0.41) 32.58 0.12
Effective Tax Rate (%) * 7% N/A N/A 8% (1%)
R Restated
financial statement . As on 1 January 2015, Thaioil Group adopted TFRS10.
*redeemed BOI privilege for tax exemption on environmental projects in Q1/15 = 716 MB
Financial -71-

Q1/15 Consolidated Cash Flow

(Unit: Million THB) (Unit: Million THB)


Operating Cash Flow Investments
Q1/15 Q1/14R Q1/15 Q1/14R
Operating Cash Flow 9,413 9,318 Investments (7,746) 4,196

Net income & non-cash adj. 4,232 5,192


+ ST investments (5,128) 9,000
CAPEX (PP&E) & other (2,618) (4,804)
Change in working capital 5,181 4,126

Financing
Financing 141 1,911
Loans proceeding (i.e.
Free Cash Flow 1,667 5,122 +
LABIX, SAKC)
1,584 3,231

Dividends paid - -
Interest (1,443) (1,321)

Beginning Change Effect of FCD Ending


cash 16,237 + 1,808 + (54) = 17,992
S/T investment 30,246 5,128 35,374
46,483 53,366
-72-

• World GRM / Inventory


• Thailand petroleum demand by
products
World GRM -73-
Asian Margin Vs. US-EU margin

90.9% 60.4% 69.5%

Total Capacity: 17.0 MBD Total Capacity: 4.9 MBD


Total Capacity: 17.5 MBD

Source: EIA, Norwegian Energy, Thai Oil


Inventories -74-
Crude Inventory

Source: Norwegian Energy


Inventories -75-
Global Distillate Inventory

Source: Norwegian Energy


Inventories -76-
Fuel Oil Inventory

Source: Norwegian Energy


China Export -77-
China’s Product Export

Source: Norwegian Energy


Thailand petroleum demand by products -78-

Domestic LPG Demand

Thailand LPG Demand


LPG Demand Highlight
• In Q1/15 LPG was markedly dropped by 7.9%
over the same period last year on account of
lower usages in cooking, transportation and
petrochemical sectors. Most of the decline came
from cooking sector that faced higher retail prices
and slowly-than-expected improvement of
economy. Meanwhile, industrial usage was seen
slightly higher on the brink of lower retail prices
from last year.
*

Remark : Include Petrochemical and own used consumption

LPG Demand by Sector Outlook for 2015


• LPG demand is expected to dropped by 2.0% YoY
pressured by the expectation of lower demand in
auto and cooking sectors as increased of LPG price
and slowly-than-expected improvement of Thai
Economy
• However, the slow down of LPG demand was
expected to limit by higher usage in industry
sector as lower price compared to last year
Thailand petroleum demand by products -79-

Domestic Gasoline Demand

Thailand Gasoline Demand


GASOLINE Demand Highlight
• In Q1/15 Mogas demand rose considerably by
13.9% from the same period last year to an
average 25.44 mml/day. This was mainly due to a
significant drop in retail prices and low-based last
year which had the political protest in BKK.
Meanwhile, gasohol portion was slightly dropped
from Q4/14 to 94.60% of total gasoline because of
demand shifting toward ULG95, GSH95, GSH91.

• The level of domestic ethanol demand in Q1/15


jumped sharply by 18.4% YoY from 2.93 mml/day
to 3.46 mml/day because of higher demand in
GSH-91, E20, and E85 backed by increasing in the
Gasoline Demand by Grade number of new registered personal car and E20
gas station.

Outlook for 2015


• Mogas consumption is predicted to grow by 4.3%
YoY supported by increasing passenger cars and
retail mogas price reduction.
Thailand petroleum demand by products -80-

Domestic Jet Demand

Thailand JET-A1 Demand


JET Demand Highlight
• In Q1/15 Jet consumption increased by 5.4%
over the corresponding period last year mainly
owning to reviving tourism sector. The expansion
in tourism sector was a result of the return of
Chinese and Malaysia tourists during Chinese New
Year and higher travel activities, pushing the
number of flight movements higher both
international and domestic aircrafts.

Outlook for 2015


JET-A1 demand and # of flights • Jet demand growth is expected to surge by
4.5%YoY owing to returning tourists from
improving global economy and stable politic
situation in Thailand.
Thailand petroleum demand by products -81-

Domestic Gasoil and NGV Demand

Thailand Gasoil Demand


Diesel Demand Highlight
• In In Q1/15 Diesel demand rose by 2.2% YoY as
relatively low retail prices boosted the
consumption amidst strong agricultural demand
from the peaking of harvesting season.
Nevertheless, demand growth was curbed by the
decline in export orders from ASEAN, EU and China
and slowly-than-expected improvement of
domestic demand.

Outlook for 2015


• Diesel demand in 2015 is expected to expand by
1.9% YoY supported by reducing retail price and
NGV Demand increasing new commercial car sales. However,
gasoil demand was limited gain by concerns on in-
recovery of Thailand’s export sector.

NGV Demand Highlight


• In Q1/15 NGV demand was marginally declined
from last year, drop by 0.4%. This was in part
because of retail prices increasing to the recorded
high of 13.0 baht/kg and lower oil prices which
reduced the fuel switching from old cars.
Thailand petroleum demand by products -82-

Domestic Fuel Oil Demand

Thailand Fuel Oil Demand


FUEL OIL Demand Highlight
• In Q1/15 Fuel Oil consumption significantly fell
by 17.8% from a year earlier. The decline was
mainly due to high base last year when demand
showed a substantial increase as Yetagun and
Yadana gas platform maintenance. Moreover,
industrial demand declined on back of economic
slowdown, while transportation demand was flat.

Outlook for 2015


• Fuel oil demand is expected to dropped by 4.5%
Thailand Fuel Oil Demand by Sector YoY following the government power develop plan
(PDP) that aim to promote alternative fuel.
Moreover, power plant also alternate to use natural
gas instead of fuel oil thanks to lower price.
Implication of TFRS 10 adoption -83-

Effect on Changes in Accounting Policies

TFRS 10 Consolidated Financial Statements


Implication of TFRS 10 adoption -84-

Changes in Accounting Policy


1 Jan 2015
To consider the previous acquisition of
TPX, TLB and GPSC to be business
combinations under common control, at
YE 2004 9 Jan 2013 YE 2014 the time of business combinations, to be
recorded by equity method.
TFRS 10 become effective
Purchased shares of Amalgamated IPT
TPX and TLB from vs. PTTUT,
PTT Namely GPSC Recognized
Retrospectively
in FS
Restated Restated

Old (TAS 27) New (TFRS 10)


 PTT has no control over TOP  PTT has control over TOP (de facto control)
 To record acquisition shares of TPX, TPX
 To record acquisition shares of TPX, TPX and shares swap in GPSC by equity method
and shares swap in GPSC by Acquisition
 Measure at book value of net assets
Method
acquired
 Measure at fair value of net assets acquired
Implication of TFRS 10 adoption -85-

Effect on Changes in TFRS 10

งบแสดงฐานะการเงิน 31 Dec 2014 หน่


31วย : ล้2013
Dec านบาท
Restated Transaction
Dr. Cr. Dr. Cr.
Statement of Financial Position
Investment in associates (GPSC) 684 798
Property, plant and equipment (TPX/TLB) 121 141
Retained earnings 364 477
Surplus on business restructuring under common control (TPX/TLB) 331 331

Non-controlling interests (PTT) 110 131


Total 805 805 939 939

Statement of Income

Cost of sales of goods 20 20


Share of profit of associates (GPSC) 114 101
Profit for the year 134 777
Reversal of loss on disposal of investment (GPSC) 898
Total 134 134 898 898
* This effect of restated transaction has not impacted with FS for Q1’ 2015
Remark: The impact of TFRS 10 on consolidated financial statements shows in notes to financial statements under item 41 in page no.271 of TOP
annual report 2015
-86-

Thank You
Any queries, please contact:

at email: ir@thaioilgroup.com
Tel: 662-797-2999 / 662-797-2961
Fax: 662-797-2976

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