Crown-pillar risk assessment—planning aid for cost-effective mine closure remediation T. G. Carter and R. |. Miller ‘Synops Tn many countries mines are now required to file closure plans and post bonds for decommissioning. Establishing whether the remediation of specific sur- face hazards arising from mining activity is necessary in a given situation is not always straightforward. In consequence, particularly because of the high cost of closure requirements, considerable interest is being focused on improving methods of assessing the stability of surface crown pillars. Even with such improvements, however, itis not always a simple matter to determine the most appropriate and cost-effective remediation ‘method for a particular surface crown pillar. ‘Some simple probabilistic approaches to the charac~ terization of a crown-pillar rock mass are suggested (0 assist in determining the risk of crown-pillar failure by reference to previous experience. An outline is then given of methods for rationalizing the selection of optimum remediation solutions based on the use of risk-based decision matrices for the quantification and comparison of costs. Establishing whether remediation is necessary to ensure the long-term stability of surface crown pillars over sil active oF abandoned near-surface stopes in hard rock mines presents a particular challenge for mine closure planning. Decision- ‘making is frequently complicated simply by the difficulty of assessing the stability of the crowns as they are usually weathered and are also often covered by overburden, ‘An attempt to assign a single factor of safety forthe unique set of dimensions and properties of a particular crown pillar is generally not valid, However, some basis is required for ‘practical decision-making so that a rational selection of optimum remediation measures can be made and costed and options for closure evaluated. Appropriate stability analyses obviously form e Key initial component of the overall decision-making process. Legislative requirements for long- term security also constitute one of the more important governing enteria that must be considered in such decision- making.! In fact, the regulations themselves often impose such strie controls on the remediation measures that are acceptable for ‘walk-away’ closure approval that they limit the applicability of many otherwise workable solutions. ‘The present contribution therefore provides some ‘examples of ways in which the application of uncertainty- besed decision-making procedures can assist in the selection of cost-effective remediation measures for submission as part ‘of required closure planning documentation, Paper presented at ce conference Risk atessment in the extractive industries held at che University of Exeter on 22-24 March, 1994 revised: manusenpt received bY the Insiuson of Mining and ‘Metallurgy on 13 October, 1994, Paper published in Trans Ino Mix. Mac. (Sec. Ae Min. indus), 104, Janwary~Apel 1995, ‘© The Inston of Mining and Metallurgy 1995, Assessing crown stability Since in almost al situations where a crown pillar has been used in mining there are significant differences berween the overall rock mass characteristics of the ore zone and those of| the hanging-wall and footwal, it is clear that attempts to deserbe the stability of such crowns by means of a single- value factor of safery will present difficulties, Nevertheless, some assessment must be made of the overall likelihood of failure so that conclusions can be reached on whether or not 4 particular crown zone pases a long-term hazard, Available methods of analy Recent back-analysis and detailed assessment of the ch teristics of past failures of surface crovn pillars have enabled the development of a useful guideline approach for evalu- ating the influence on stability of variability in the rock ‘mass? Examination of documented crown-pillar failures in biocky rock masses suggests that failure most frequently develops were several adversely orientated discontinuities Intersect or where a particular suite of major joints provides 2 release mechanism for gravity collapse. Similarly, in faihures of significant areal extent the geometry is often controlled by the orientations of major individual discontinuities. Where crown pillars are characterized by unfavourable geometry, small block sizes and generally poor-quality rock conditions, failure tends to occur by ravelling and breakdown of the blocks that form the crown zone (Fig. 1(b)), whereas in good-quality rock where jointing is not adverse the inter- locking of blocks may create a stress arch that, by providing some measure of horizontal clamping, promotes stability Fe. 1a, In cases where ubiquitous fabrics are the cause of failure uncontrollable slabbing and sloughing have often been res- ponsible for inducing progressive or chimney-type crown failures, the later being particularly evident where very weak crown material is present between relatively strong foot- and hhanging-wall rocks.> For most other types of failure due to ubiquitous fabrics not only is the structural character of the crown important but so also is the weakness that such = fabric creates on the hanging-wall side of the stope. In fact, the presence of such fabrics can initiate a form of progressive failure that leads, first, to widening of the stope by de- lamination of material from the hanging-wall and ultimately ends in complete destabilization and collapse ofthe crown.* Approaches to assessment Current approaches to assessment of the stability of a surface crown pillar encompass a spectrum of techniques from empirical rule-of-thumb methods through to the application ‘of sophisticated numerical modelling using available ‘computer codes, such as UDEC, FLAC, UNWEDGE or PHASES. However, whenever sophisticated analytical pro- cedures are used the lack of a detailed understanding ef rock mass characteristics and variations imposes severe limitations fon the validity of the results obtained. When crown ‘conditions ere complex probabilistic evaluation techniques AMo Fig. 1 UDEC block-model geometry for (a) good and (fir sock conditions showing distinetelement prediction of stes-arch effect nd inition of hanging all slabbing fo diferent crown geometis have merit over modeling sophistication in that more explicit ‘expression can be piven to uncertainty in the assessment of| the heterogeneity of real rock masses. ‘Rock mass clasiication methods and quantitative, semi- empirical stabiliy-evaluation procedures. are particularly amenable to such probabilistic treatment es they essentially allow a descriptive characterization of all controlling para= meters, Further, as such methods are generally aleady built around some form of ranking assessment of each governing parameter, they provide @ convenient framework that is Suitable for staustical treatment. ‘The approach that is proposed here utilizes these classi- fication systems as 2 means of evaluating the likelihood ot probability that a crown pillar contains an area of poor- quality rock chat is suficiently large or sufficiently weak to result in collapse ofthe pilla. Accordingly, the approach has two themes: identification of the characteristics of an unstable crovsn-pillar rock mast; and assessment of the Statistical variation of rock mass properties within x given crovin to enable calculation of the likelihood that such = poor-quality zone is present Rock mass classification Although various classification methods are available thet have been specifically developed for mining applications— Aa some tailored to the design of deep stopes (the Mathews method"), others o caving design (the MRMS method”) and one to the analysis of surface crown pillas®!°—all rly for base input parameters on the descriptive codes that were first put forward for classifications for use in ranneling (ve. the O system! and/or the RMR system!2", ‘Although information on discontinuities is usually impli- ily included in the data that have been compiled for development of the classification indices, che influence of structure often cannot be adequately evaluated through the use of global classification indices alone. It ie therefore recommended that, before application of the approaches that fare set out in the present contribution, contoured stereoncts should be produced so that the primary joint trends ean be identified and quantified for further analysis and a check can bbe made for the presence of adverse joints—which may not always be members ofthe commonest set—as these may be a critical control on stability. As such joints are not represented by the mean, nor are all joint combinations represented by intersections of the mean planes, careful checking with the use of extremevalue statistics may often be appropriate ‘where weak joints are identified that could be eriical to the stability of a crown! imei dette et nos ate weeny 00) 3.) J o-Ps) eee ect pee a wero eco se tm na en an athan with the Q approach, it does tend co limit the sensitivity of the method when an attempt is made to classify subtle, but important, jint-controlled effects, Rather than being a limitation on their application, these ininsic differences between the classifications are a signi= ficant advantage in chat when both systems are applied and the deduced RMR and Q values are compared some confirmation of the reliability of the data from field obser- vations is obtained. Not only can the inherent vatiabiliry in the rock mass characteristics be stsested but a better appreciation of uncertainties inthe definitions of parameters can also be gained. Used together, therefore, in conjunction With other specific information on the orientation, persis- tence and surface conditions of discontinuities, such classi- fications provide a good basis for the «ype of probabilistic analysis that is the subject of subsequent sections of the present paper. Crown-pillar characterization In addition to the need to cope with the vagaries of the various classifications, considerable and real difficulties arise in attempting to define single classification values for typical ‘rown-pillar rock masses that are both representative and unique In principle, the same basic techniques of geostatistical analysis that are routinely applied to the evaluation of variability in ore grade can also be applied to assessment of| the variation in rock quality across a crown-pillar zone, for, just as ore grade varies across site, so tg0 does rock mass duality. In practice, however, variations in the latter sze generally much more difficult to quantify as an evaluation of| rock quality at a particular point requires 2 relatively large amount of information about the rock mass, whereas ore grade can usually be assessed by measuring a single parameter. There is seldom, if ever, sufficient relevant information to define completely the spatial variation of rock ‘quality across a given crown in a fully quantitative manner. Furthermore, most crown pillars are characterized by the presence of different zones of competent rock (usually the ‘margins to the ore) and weak, faulted ground (often the ore ‘zone). In recognition ofthis, the approach that is developed in the present contribution s based on weating the quality of| the weakest zone of rock in a particular crown pillar 35 a random variable and evaluating the likelihood (probability) that this zone ofthe crown is sufficiently poor or extensive to result in a collapse Variation in rock mass characteristics across the crown snd abutments is one aspect that must be carefully examined, but the dificulties of classification are further compounded when areas close to the surface are assessed Here the rock is not only likely to be variable asa result of| ‘weathering effects but is offen so completely covered by joverburden that it can only be crudely characterized trom borehole core. In these situations classification of the rock ‘mass is by no means straightforward. Estimating represen tative discontinuity characteristics is tricky and defining RQD is particularly difficult. In such circumstances there is merit in determining RQD from core (with specific cor- rections for core size effec!) and comparing the calculated values with estimates based on underground -measurements of fracture frequency and surface observations of scan-ines. Where core is not available for areas ofthe rock mass for which a classification is required representative ROD values for different sections of the crown can be estimated ffom maps of fracture frequency using the exponential decay relationship proposed by Priest and ® as correlated to other published trends (including the range of RQD data compiled by Deere!® and ‘hat compiled by Bieniawski (see Kendorski et af)) RQD = 100e**(72.+ 1) @ where Lis the fracture frequency (fractures/m) and t= 0.1 m defines the theoretical limst-cate, upper-bound RQD range, Values computed from this approach can also be checked using the method proposed by Palmstrom:?! ROD= 115-331, @ where J, is a measure of the number of joints erossing a 1-m? block of rock Although correct characterization of the weakest part of the rock mass inthe crown zone isthe key to appreciation of | the inherent strength of the pilla, aecurate information on the geomeuy of the underground stope excavation is also essential to a proper assessment of stability. Obtaining sufficiently accurate profile is sometimes no tival matter as all too often no reliable data ate available on the final ge0- ‘metry of the excavation, Furthermore, in many cases the sope crown and hanging-wall may have caved and ravelled to such an extent thatthe shape created by mining may have changed completely. Resolution of the considerable un- certainties that can sometimes arise in defining the geometry of a particular stope crown requites careful site inves: tigation—often with the use of faiky sophisticated techniques, such as those discussed by Cole et al? Carter ral and Steed and co-workers. Empirical assessment of crown stability Although various rule-of-thumb methods for the design of| surface crown pillars have been applied in mining practice for well over a century, recent research has documented ‘numerous failures that have occurred where the rules were simply inappropriate*% Attempts have therefore been ‘made to improve the existing rules by undertaking detailed checks of available data to establish rock mass characteristics and pre-ulure geomerry for as many failed and non-feiled surface crown pillars as possible” Early evaluation led to the development of an improved relationship of the form shown in Fig. 2 whereby the thick ress to span ratio that was employed in the old rule-of- ‘thumb approach, rather than being defined as single value, ‘was replaced by an expression related to rock mass quality: ssquse a where Tis thickness and $ i span. Initially, it was considered that this method of evaluation would provide simple, guideline relationship that would be suitable for checking crowns in geological serings similar to those for which assessments were held in the database. It was, however, ‘quickly realized that since the relationship was not scale independent, its use without calibration could very easly lead to significant errors. Accordingly, efforts were made 10 develop a relationship that would describe crown geometry ‘more accurately. Sealed crown span Some success was achieved by examining different beam- bending analogies by methods of dimensional analysis, This allowed the definition of a sealing expression that could be effectively applied to provide a unique characterization ofthe a3Noi-a lo 19 © 0 400 000 ° i: t S | store span OPEN STOPE \ | Sone 2ove o rcuas ctses | o.0l T > ap a KO GEOMECHANICS RMR Fig. 2 Summary of erown-plar ease records plotted as thickness to span ratios versus rock mass quality of weakest zone within crown feomcuy, NGI-O, Norwegian Geotechnical Insitute tunseling ‘ual index, three-dimensional geometry ofa given surface crown pila!” In addition, it was subsequently found that ths ‘scaled crown span’ concept enables fuirly reliable comparisons to be made of the stability of different pillars that have been excavated in Giflerent rock masses of different overall quality. The approach was based on a simple sealing expression of the form Cy = 5x Ky where a geometric scaling factor, Ky is used co modify the actual span, S, t0 take into account differences in three-dimensional pillar geometry. The scaling telationship that was developed to consider all the critical dimensions of crown thickness and the dip and geometry of the rock forming the stope walls and surface crown pillar ig. 3) can be expressed as - x O° S FG e MH Oaeosd] @ where Ge is scaled erown span, m; S is actual crown-pilla span, mis specific gravity ofthe rock mass; Tis thickness of the crown pillar, m; 8 is dip of the orebodyloliation, degrees; and Sy i8 the span ratio SIL (span of crown pillar Aivided by its strike length). Derailed discussion of the fll development of this expression is beyond the scope of the present work, but i should be noted that in the overall expression the foliation dip angle, 8, reflects also the dip of the controlling hanging- \wall ofthe stope. Thus, for a tabular orebody (Fig. 3(@)), a8 the dip of the foliation and, hence, of the stope sidewalls shallows from 90 to less than 45, the effective span of the stope should no longer be considered as the width of the ore zone but rather as the dip length ofthe hanging-wall, Although by no means perfect, this simple scaling approach represents @ considerable’ improvement on the ‘iraight thickness to span ratio as a means of defining pillar stability a8 some account can be taken of each of the most {important variations in dree-dimensional geometry. With time and the accumulation of more case records the approach is likely to undergo further development and refinement, At this stage, however, it can be considered a useful index approach that, like the Mathews method for ddeep-stope design or the Q and RMR systems for tunnel evaluation, provides a ready means for quick assessment of the likely stability of a given pillar geometry. (For 8 fuller ata Fig. 3 Terminology fOr definion of crowm-pllar sealing relationship. (a) Schematic view of stope showing span, S; lena, L fand dip, 0. (5) Stope croseseotion showing S, 6 and crown, thickness, T description of the development and application of the approach the interested reader is referred 10 Carter! oto the original (1990) report by Golder Astocistes to CANMET.), “Taking the scaling expression given as equation 5 and recasting the database records plotted in Fig. 2 allow generation of the graph presented as Fig. 4. Again, all the case records in the Golder-CANMET database have been plotted against the rock quality of the weakest zone in the crown. As in Fig. 2, for convenience of reference the RMR and O seales have both been used for the plotting, their relative positioning being based on Bieniawski's 1976 cor relation, RMR =9l0g,0¢ 4.2 Although it must be recognized that for certain rock conditions significant divergences can occur in the cor- Felation between the two indices, this widely published relationship has been utilized as, for most rock masses, it adequately reflects the relationship between the two classfcatons. However, in cases where comparative classi- fications suggest wide divergences either these must be treated explicly or a specific site andlor rock mass calibration relationship must be developed. Critical span tine In addition to the plot of the database records, Fig. 4 includes three power-law relationships forthe assessment of |