The Wetlands Alliance Int. Conf. Wetlands Management: Science, Practice and Sustainable Development: 19-21 January.

2016

Climate change and water allocation to Moeyingyi wetland: impact on flows and
diversion of Bago River, Myanmar

Manish Shrestha1.• Sangam Shrestha1 • Avishek Datta2

1
Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani
12120, Thailand
2
Agricultural Systems and Engineering, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of
Technology, Pathumthani 12120

Abstract— Originally built for flood control, Moeyingyi wetland now provides valuable resources such as fishery, irrigation
water, tourism and is also habitat to many rare species and migratory birds. Moeyingyi wetland is the only wetland in
Myanmar sited as a Ramsar site. The study was conducted to predict the future water availability in Bago River Basin to be
diverted to Moeyingyi wetland. Bias corrected weather data form three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two
emission scenarios of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5), namely RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 was used to forecast the temperature
and rainfall. Future climate scenarios were predicted for three future periods as 2020s (2021–2030), 2030s (2031–2040)
and 2040s (2041–2050). The analysis shows that, the future annual average temperature of the study area increases
continuously compare to base period however, the magnitude of the increase varies with different GCMs. The Soil Water
Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological analysis to predict the water availability in Bago River Basin and
Moeyingyi wetland. Future ensemble climate scenarios were used to predict the discharge in the basins and shows that the
annual average discharge in the Bago River decreases during 2020s and 2030s whereas significant increase is seen during
2040s. Seasonal analysis suggests that the discharge is expected to decrease during the dry seasons which can have a
negative impact on diversion of water from Bago River to Moeyingyi wetland. On the other hand, the discharge is likely to
increase during the month of July and can further worsen the recurring floods. Similarly, inflow at Moeyingyi wetland is also
expected to decrease in future. Hence it is wise that the water management planners consider robust adaptation strategies to
cope with both scenarios of water availability to enhance sustainability to climate change in future.

Keywords— Climate change • RCP • SWAT • Water diversion

Agriculture and Irrigation. There are reports of conflicts

 between the Forestry Department and the Irrigation
1. INTRODUCTION
Department regarding maintenance of the water level of
Moeyingyi wetland was constructed in 1978 and was
Moeyingyi wetland. The Forestry Department wants to
originally built as a reservoir for flood control. The
maintain the water level to at least 7 m during the months
wetland is also used to supply water to Bago-Sittoung
of March and April whereas the Irrigation Department
canal during the dry season as a source of irrigation water
faces high water demand during these seasons and are
for rice farmers. In addition, it also serves as a habitat for
compelled to supply water for irrigation resulting in a
various species and acts as a resting place for migratory
decrease in water level to less than 6.4 m. Due to constant
birds. Thousands of tourists are attracted to the site since
human interference, extraction of water for irrigation,
it was opened in 1998. Seeing the importance of the
climate variation and climate change, Moeyingyi wetland
wetland ecosystem it was declared as a Ramsar site in
faces huge threats to its ecosystem [1], [2].
2005. Moeyingyi wetland provides many valuable
Global climate change may alter hydrologic parameters
resources such as fishery, forest products and it is also a
upon which wetlands, and the species that inhabit on
source of fresh water. However, the natural characteristics
them, depend [3]. Hydrology is probably the most
and value of Moeyingyi wetland have been changed by
important determinant for the establishment and
human activities, thus, reducing their natural values.
maintenance of specific types of wetlands and wetland
Other than natural sources like rainfall and small
processes [4]. Climate change could have an effect both
streams, the Bago River is one of the major sources of
on the long-term water availability and short-term
water to Moeyingyi wetland. Around 8.5m3/s of water is
variability of water resources in many regions of the
diverted to Moeyingyi wetland through Zangtu weir at the
world [5]. The intensity and characteristics of the impact
Bago River. Similarly, water is diverted during the
varies significantly from region to region [6]. Therefore it
monsoon season to prevent flooding at Bago city situated
is very much importance to assess the impact of climate
at the bank of Bago River. Moeyingyi wetland is managed
change on hydrology at regional scale to better understand
by the Forestry Department, Ministry of Environmental
the potential change in water resources [5], [7], [8], [9].
Conservation and Forestry whereas the sluice gates are
Myanmar ranks one of the top countries vulnerable to the
controlled by the Irrigation Department, Ministry of
effect of climate change [10] and is experiencing an

Government of Japan and Ramsar Convention Secretariat, Switzerland.

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increase in temperature and a change in precipitation
patterns over the past decade [1].
The objective of the study was to access the impact of
climate change on the hydrology of upper Bago River
Basin (BRB) and Moeyingyi wetland of Myanmar. The
impact of climate change on the River runoff was
projected using three GCMs and two emission scenarios
for different future periods. Multiple GCMs were used in
the study to reduce the uncertainty while projecting the
climate change impact analysis, which has been widely
adopted in other studies [9], [11], [12]. The result of this
study would provide the change in discharge of the Bago
River due to climate change for diversion to Moeyingyi
wetland. The findings would help decision makers’ device
necessary adaptation strategies for sustainable
development of the water resources.

2. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA

The study area comprises of Moeyingyi wetland and
nearby BRB. The overall study area with the location of
hydrological stations and canal system is presented in
Figure 1. The total area is 3,170 km2 with an average Fig. 1 Location map of the study area in Myanmar
annual temperature of 26 °C. The average annual rainfall
is about 3,000 mm and almost 85% of it occurs during the 3. METHODOLOGY
monsoon season (May to October).
The study was conducted to evaluate the impact of
future climate change on BRB and Moeyingyi wetland
Moeyingyi Wetland
and its effect on water availability in Moeyingyi wetland
Moeyingyi wetland lies in Bago and Waw township of
for future period up to 2050. Output form three GCMs
Bago district and covers an area of 103.6 km2. The
namely MIROC5, CSIRO and ECHAM for two RCP
wetland is surrounded by embankment of an average
scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used. The outputs
height of 3.66 m with the total storage capacity of 173
from these GCMs were bias corrected using linear scaling
million cubic meters. There are three main sluice gates to
into local observed stations to project future climate
supply water for irrigation: Moeyingyi (10 openings),
scenarios in terms of rainfall and maximum and minimum
Kapin (8 openings) and Zwebat (4 openings). These sluice
temperatures.
gates are controlled and managed by the Irrigation
Hydrological model SWAT was setup and calibrated
Department of Bago district to irrigate around 12,400 ha
against the observed discharge stations at Bago and
land through Bago-Sittaung canal. Around 65 species of
Zangtu stations. Forecasted weather data were then used
water birds, 60 species of terrestrial birds, 30 species of
as an input for SWAT model to determine the water
fishes and 29 species of reptiles and amphibians are
availability at Bago and Moeyingyi wetlands. SWAT
commonly observed in Moeyingyi wetland [2].
model is a semi distributed hydrological model widely
used in the scientific community to simulate hydrological
Upper Bago River Basin
processes [13], [14], [15], [16]. SWAT can be used in
Upper BRB is jointly shared between Bago Township
modeling ungagged basin and the input data can be
of Bago Division and Yangon Division of Myanmar and
lies west of Moeyingyi wetland. The northern part of the altered to simulate the changes such as land use change,
basin has higher altitude of up to 800 m AMSL whereas climate change or land management practices [17].
the lower southern part is relatively plain and fertile. The SWAT divides the basin into a number of sub-basin
Bago River flows through Bago city and is flooded almost which is further sub divided into Hydrological Response
every year during the monsoon period. The average flow Unit (HRU) based on the topography, land use and soil
in the Bago River is 135 m3/s which can increase up to type.
450 m3/s during the rainy season. Water from the Bago
River is diverted for irrigation and to maintain the water
level of Moeyingyi wetland during the dry season through
canal. The intake of the irrigation canal lies between
Zangtu and Bago stations.

Fig. 2 Research methodology for the study

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3.1. Data collection
Meteorological and Hydrological Data
The observed rainfall and maximum and minimum
temperatures from three stations, Bago, Zangtu and
Tharayawady, were collected on daily time step from the
Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar for
the periods of 1991–2008. Of the three stations, two
stations, Bago and Zangtu, lie within the BRB. There are
no weather stations within or near Moeyingyi wetland.
Other climate data required for SWAT such as relative
humidity, wind speed and solar radiation were simulated
within each sub-basin based on topography, rainfall and
temperature [17]. SWAT model was verified based on the
observed discharge of the Bago River. The daily
discharge of the Bago River was collected from two
stations, Bago and Zangtu, for the year of 1994–2008.
Topography, Land Use and Soil Data
DEM used in the model was of 90 m resolution
collected form SRTM (http://www.cgiar-csi.org/data
/srtm-90m-digital-elevation-database-v4-1). Land use map
and its properties was collected from ESA website
(http://due.esrin.esa.int/globcover/) which has a resolution
of 300 m. Among 22 land cover type identified by ESA,
seven types of land use were found in the study area. The
data showed that forest covers 46% and 10% is covered
by agricultural area. The soil map and soil properties
required for the SWAT model was collected form Digital
Soil Map of the World (DSMW) of 1:5000000 scale
(http://data.fao.org/map?entryId=446 ed430-8383-11db-
b9b2-000d939bc5d8). There were two types of soil in the
study area: Nitosols (Ne) covering 62% of the area and
Eutric Gleysols (Ge) covering 38% of the total area.
Climate Change Scenarios
The climate change scenarios were based on the output
of GCMs based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).
This study examines the potential effect of climate change
under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios on the discharge of the
Bago River. Three GCMs, namely MIROC5, CSIRO and
ECHAM, data were analyzed to find out future climate
scenarios for the period of 2021–2030 (2020s), 2031–
2040 (2030s) and 2041–2050 (2040s). The GCMs were
selected by evaluating its historical run with the observed
meteorological station based on four indicators:
coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error
(RMSE), mean and standard deviation. These climate
scenarios data were bias corrected using linear scaling
bias correction method [7]. The bias correction help
increase the R2 value while decreasing the RMSE. In
addition, the mean and standard deviation of the model
would be close to that of observed precipitation and
temperature.
3.2. SWAT CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION
Two separated models were created for upper BRB and
Moeyingyi wetland. A total of 22 parameters were chosen
to calibrate the model. The upper BRB model was
calibrated against the observed discharge at two stations:
Zangtu and Bago, which is the basin outlet. The observed
discharge data form years 1994–2003 and 2004–2008
were used for the calibration and validation of the model.
Three years data from 1991–1993 were used as a warm up
period for the model.
The model performance was checked using statistical
indicators like Nash-Shtcliffe simulation efficiency
(NSE), Percentage Bias (PBIAS), coefficient of
determinant (R2) [14], [15], [18], [19], [20], [21]. The
optimum value indicating the perfect match between the
observed and the simulated discharge for NSE and R 2 is 1
whereas PBIAS is 0. The model performance is
acceptable if the NSE is greater than 0.5 and PBIAS lies
in the range of ±25 [19], [20].
Where, 𝑄𝑖= measured daily discharge, 𝑄𝑖′= simulated
daily discharge, 𝑄̅𝑖= average daily discharge for observed
period, 𝑄̅𝑖′= average daily discharge for simulated period,
𝑛 = number of daily discharge value.
Due to the scarcity of discharge data at Moeyingyi
wetland outlet, calibration of the model was not possible.
However, Heuvelmans et al, 2004 concluded that transfer
of parameters of semi-distributed SWAT model to a
neighboring catchment with similar topography, soil and
landuse yield reasonable good model performance. Hence,
model parameters from neighboring BRB was transferred
to Moeyingyi wetland model as they both share similar
topography, soil and landuse.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1. Climate Change Scenarios
The average temperature and precipitation of the basin
was calculated by averaging bias corrected maximum and
minimum temperatures using Thiessen polygon method.
A continuous increase in annual mean temperature was
observed under both the scenarios. Figure 3 shows the
relative increase in temperature of the basin predicted by
three GCMs and their average ensemble under RCP 4.5
and RCP 8.5. The largest increase in temperature is
predicted in 2040s where ECHAM model shows the
highest increase in temperature up to 2.7°C. A large
uncertainty is observed while predicting the future
temperature but, all the GCMs and both the scenarios
predict the continuous increase of temperature of the
basin. This indicates that the evapotranspiration in the
future will increase.
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 mm for the period of 2020s. In general, the precipitation
will decrease during the monsoon period except the month
of July.

4.2. Model Performance

The daily simulated discharge value was compared with
the observed discharge to calibrate the SWAT model at
two points. Fig. 5 and Fig 6 show the comparison between
the observed and the simulated discharge for calibration
and validation period at Zangtu and Bago stations,
respectively.
Fig. 3 Relative change in average temperature for
different future period under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5

Figure 4 shows the relative annual precipitation changes

under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Under both the scenarios, the
annual precipitation will likely to decrease by 2020s. The
largest decrease is seen under RCP 4.5 up to 350 mm. A
large uncertainty is observed while predicting the future
precipitation. MIROC 5 shows decrease in the annual
precipitation for both scenarios whereas ECHAM shows
increase in annual precipitation. The average ensemble of Fig. 5 Comparision of the observed and simulated daily
these GCM shows that the precipitation will decrease in discharge at Zangtu station
the near future whereas it will gradually increase for the
period 2040s.

Fig. 6 Comparision of the observed and simulated daily

discharge at Bago station

The model performed better at Bago station than at

Zangtu. The NSE and r2 values at Zangtu station showed
satisfactory results and were above 0.50. In contrast, the
NSE and r2 values were above 0.70 during the calibration
and above 0.80 during the validation at Bago station. For
all cases PBISA was within the range of ±25% except at
Zangtu station during the validation.

Time Zangtu Bago

Period
Span R2 NSE PBIAS R2 NSE PBIAS
Calibr 1994-
0.53 0.50 -16.63 0.7 0.69 5.40
ation 2003
Valida 2004-
0.56 0.50 29.49 0.82 0.81 4.54
tion 2008

Fig. 4 Relative change in rainfall for different future

period under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
4.3. Climate Change Impact on Water Availability
Under RCP 4.5, the decrease in precipitation is noticed The period of 1994–2008 was considered as the base
in the months of May, June, August and September period for Bago River and the change in the future
whereas the increase is observed during the months of discharge was calculated as relative change in the
April, July and November. The highest increase in discharge at two points: Zangtu and Bago stations. Land
precipitation up to 300 mm is predicted during the month use changes and its effect on the discharge are not
of April for the period of 2040s compared to base period. considered during the study period.
For all time periods, the precipitation for the month of
July is increasing with the highest increase up to 65 mm
for the year 2040s. Similar pattern of changes is observed
under RCP 8.5. Here the largest decrease is for the month
of May where the precipitation will decrease up to 113

4

Fig. 7 Box and whisker plots of projected discharge under
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 as a fraction of discharge of base
period
Figure 7 shows the relative change in discharge at Zangtu
and Bago stations. The discharge in the River will
decrease under RCP 4.5 in both the stations. Under RCP
8.5, however, the discharge will increase for the period of
2040s. The simulation projected an average of change in
discharge of –7% (–38 to 29%), –7% (–32 to 42%) and –
1% (–29 to 126%) in the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s,
respectively, for Zangtu station. Similarly, an average
change in discharge of –6% (–45 to 62%), –5% (–36% to
61%) and 0.1% (–31 to 166%) in the 2020s, 2030s and
2040s, respectively, is observed for Bago station.
Fig. 8 Relative change in monthly discharge of Zangtu
and Bago stations
Figure 8 shows the relative change in monthly mean
discharge at Zangtu and Bago under two scenarios. Both
scenarios show similar change in trends. The discharge at
Zangtu station is likely to decrease during the monsoon
season. The largest decrease of up to 25 m3/s is predicted
in the month of August under RCP 4.5. At Bago station,
similar pattern was observed to that of Zangtu station. In
Bago station, the discharge will likely to increase for the
month of April and lies in the range of 27 m3/s to 80 m3/s
during 2040s under RCP 4.5. On the other hand, a
discharge up to 130 m3/s will increase during the month
of April for the period 2020s under RCP 8.5. The largest
decrease is observed in October up to 30 m3/s to 56 m3/s.
Similarly, the discharge is expected to decrease during the
dry seasons which can have a negative impact on
diversion of water from Bago River to Moeyingyi
wetland. On the other hand, the discharge is likely to
increase during the monsoon season for 2040s at Bago
city and can further worsen the recurring floods. The
change in discharge is both driven by increase in
temperature and change in precipitation.
Fig. 9 Relative change in monthly inflow at Moeyingyi
wetland
Climate change impact analysis shows a decrease in
inflow at Moeyingyi wetland in future periods. Inflow at
the wetland can decrease as high as 23% for the period of
2020s compared with the base period. This can have
serious consequences for both agriculture and wetland
biodiversity. The inflow is expected to decrease during
the dry season and increase during the wet seasons. The
highest decrease in the inflow can be observed during the
month of May and October whereas the inflow will
increase for the months of June and July.
5. CONCLUSIONS
In summary, the impact of climate change on water
availability of upper Bago River Basin and Moeyingyi
wetland was investigated. Three future periods up to 2050
as 2020s, 2030s and 2040s were considered for the study.
The bias corrected data of temperature show that the
average basin temperature will increases continuously
throughout the study period and will reach up to 1.2 to
2.7°C indicating an increase in evapotranspiration. It is
also observed that the overall precipitation will decrease
during the near future period and will rise in the mid of
the 21st century. The monthly analysis of precipitation
also shows a decrease in precipitation during the monsoon
period except on July when the precipitation will increase.
5
 With increasing temperature and decreasing
precipitation, a decrease of mean annual discharge will be
evident at both Zangtu and Bago stations indicating a
decrease in water availability in Bago Basin. The
projected monthly changes in discharge reveal that the
discharge will decrease during the months of May and
October. This can have a serious consequence on water
diversion to Moeyingyi wetland. On the other hand
increase in discharge during the monsoon season can
worsen the regular floods at Bago city. Similarly, a large
increase in discharge is predicted during the month of
April due to an increase in precipitation. Whereas, inflow
at Moeyingyi wetland can be expected to decrease in the
future.
Water availability at Moeyingyi wetland may decrease
in future as a result of decrease in discharge at Bago River
for diversion as well as decrease in inflow at Moeyingyi
wetland during dry seasons. This will have a negative
impact on the irrigation system as well as ecosystem of
wetland. In the same way climate change may create
serious consequences in the future activities that are being
developed at the present. Proper adaptation measures
should, therefore, be implemented to resist the impact of
climate change.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This work was made possible through a grant support
from the Government of Japan and Ramsar Convention
Secretariat, Switzerland. The authors would like to thank
the Department of Irrigation, Bago, Myanmar and Forest
Department, Bago, Myanmar for providing the valuable
information and data of the study area. Mr. Aung Myo
Khaing and Mr. Aung Ye Htut were also duly
acknowledged for providing hydro-meteorological data of
the study area.
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