Renewable Energy – Forecasting & Integration

– Managing mixed portfolio of generation

Indranil BANDYO
New DELHI
08-DEC-2015
Drivers Renewable Generation Growth

Factors Portfolio of Generation

• Increasing energy • Solar PV

demand.
• Solar Thermal
• Concern and commitment
with environment. • Wind
• Energy Security • Small Hydro
• Increasing hydrocarbon • Bio-energy
prices (Coal, Oil, Gas)
• Regulation in favour of
power from Renewable
sources.
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Renewable Energy Potential in India

Wind Power density Solar Irradiance

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Achievement in Renewable Energy Sector in India

Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government of India

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Indian target to be achieved by year 2022

Region Solar Wind Small Hydro Biomass Region Total

(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)
North 31,120 8,600 2,450 4,149 46,319
West 28,410 22,600 125 2,875 54,010
South 26,531 28,200 1,675 2,612 59,018
East 12,237 135 244 12,616
North East 1,205 615 1,820
Others 30 600 120 750
TOTAL 99,533 60,000 5,000 10,000 1,74,533

Source: Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government of India

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Issues with Renewable Generation Asset

Operation Issues Integration Issues

• Situational Awareness of • Power balance with a

the renewable generation mixed portfolio of
– Geospatial UI generation
• Quality and availability of • Mitigate stress on
forecast data conventional generation
• Ramp Forecast • Maintain generalized grid
security and reliability
• Generation of Alarm
• Management of reserve &
congestion in transmission
line
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Renewable Control Desk – Monitoring of Generation

Situational awareness of Renewable Assets

• Location plot on GIS

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Renewable Control Desk – Monitoring of Generation

Utilization of Renewable Assets & Weather Condition

Actual Generation
• Utilization Factor UF =
Maximum Capacity

• Current weather condition

Presentation title - 17/12/2015 – P 8

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that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without
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 Renewable Control Desk – Energy Forecast Management

• Multiple forecast
sources with
different
accuracy.
• Composite
forecast.
• Comparison with
actual
generation.
• Confidence of
forecast data.

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that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without
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 Integration of Renewables with existing SCADA/EMS

• Architecture
Numerical Wind / Solar Historical Future
Load
Weather Description & Met & Power Availability
Forecast
Prediction Location Data & Outages

Renewable
Forecast
Management

Real Time Day Ahead Look Ahead & Dynamic Oscillatory

Control Commitment Contingency Line Stability
EMS & Dispatch Study Rating Management

Presentation title - 17/12/2015 – P 10

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Integration of Renewable Generation with Grid

Power balance with a mixed portfolio of generation

• Balancing
Area

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Power balance between Conventional & RE Sources

• Conventional
Generation to meet
the Area demand
and generation
from Renewable
Assets
• Net Load =
Area Load –
RE Generation

Presentation title - 17/12/2015 – P 12

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Load Forecasting Process

Select Recent or Similar

Load Day(s)

Refine Forecast as
New Data Arrives

Use Location Specific

Regression Model
To Estimate/Scale/Adjust

Presentation title - 17/12/2015 – P 13

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 Generalized Grid Security

• Looking at real time is just not sufficient.

• Various scenarios that potentially could happen in the
presence of RE to be studied.
• Contingency with forecasted RE at high or low limits.
Preventive action, Controller movement response time

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 Look Ahead Study

• Multiple Time Point Analysis.

• Violations Summary for each time point.
• Optimal adjustment suggestion to mitigate the violations

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Commitment Results with mixed portfolio of generation

System Summary (allocation of generation)

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 Congestion Management – Dynamic Line Rating

• Traditionally
renewable plants
are far away from
load.
• Connected network
does not have
enough capacity to
carry additional
electricity.
• Limits vary with
weather - DLR
• ‘Ampacity’ increases
with wind speed.

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Implementation Strategy – Complete Integration

Presentation title - 17/12/2015 – P 18

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Our Product Portfolio

Issues Our Offering

Situational Awareness of the RE
e-terrarenewableplan
generation – Geospatial UI
Quality of forecast data
Ramp Forecast
e-terrascada
Generation of Alarm
Power balance
Stress on conventional generation & e-terracommit
day ahead schedule

Management of reserve e-terrageneration

Congestion in transmission line Overhead Line Monitoring

Grid security and reliability – look e-terratransmission

ahead study
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that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without
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Example References

Customer Project
Energinet, • High penetration of RE sources.
Denmark (TSO) • RE monitoring and forecast management.
• Visualization on a geographic display.
• Estimation and forecast of RE generation
• Coupling with real time operation for supply
demand balance.
• Integration with network security
application for look ahead study.

Hawaiian • Utilization of weather forecast feeds from

Electric weather service provider.
Company • Integration with SCADA / EMS forecast.
• Scenarios of reserve and forecast.
• Generation of Alarms

Presentation title - 17/12/2015 – P 20

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Key Differentiators

Situational Awareness of RE assets.

Manage Renewable Forecasts

Integration with SCADA Control room

Supports proactive operational decision

Requirement driven Innovative Solution

Presentation title - 17/12/2015 – P 21

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Conclusion

• Sustainable Development.
• Environmental Protection with Social Progress.
• RE generation to be maximized.
• Conventional generation to follow to meet Area demand.
• Situational Awareness of RE assets is a must.
• Accurate weather forecast and blending of forecast.
• Online Stability, DLR, Look ahead study, Predictive analysis
are required for proactive action.
• No Single solution – Combination of Innovative Solution
• Innovation only way to both go green & grow – Bill Gates at the
ongoing Paris COP21 climate summit.
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