556 JaNt\901003 HYDROLOGICAL SUPPORT UNIT PROJECT INTENSITY DURATION FREQUENCY CURVES NORMAN MANLEY & SANGSTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTS UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME, GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA UNDERGROUND WATER AUTHORITY +[a]-OG(TABLE OF CONTENT 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background 1.2 Acknowledegements INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS. 2.1 Gumbel’s Extremal Distribution 2.2 Probability Weighted Moments 2.3 Data Used and Sample Calculation RESULTS AND DISCUSSION REFERENCES LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES1.0 INTRODUCTION ‘When engineers design drainage systems, it is important that they size drainage conveyance structures based upon expected rates of peak flows. At present, many engineers attempt designs without a proper understanding of the statistical relationships between rainfall intensity and expected return periods. This results either in uneconomical over-design, or under-design which creates additional drainage problems. Precipitation events are recorded by gauges at specific sites. Data collected at these locations can be used to determine the frequency and character of Precipitation events in the vicinity of the site. Point rainfall data from Jamaica's ‘two (2) international airports are used to derive Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves, which can be used in urban stormwater drainage design for regions in the vicinity of Kingston and Montego Bay. The publication of a method to derive these IDF curves should go a long way to improve many engineers’ understanding of rainfall and drainage Characteristics, and hence improve the quality of their designs for regions where similar rainfall data is available.1.1_Backaround One of the most popular methods used by engineers to estimate the peak rates Of runoff, required for design applications in small urban and rural watersheds, is the Rational Formula: oc a Where Q, = peak runoft (ft%/sec) A = drainage area (acres) 1 = average rainfall intensity (in/he) lasting for a critical uration (t.), and corresponding to the return period (1) used in design, © = dimensiontess runoff coefficient, based upon degree Of imperviousness and infitration capacity of the drainage surface. the watershed are contributing to the outflow at the Point to design. That Condition is met after the elapsed time, t,, the time of Concentration, which Usually is taken as the time for water to flow from the Most remote part of the drainage basin,tes Methods for the determination of values of C, A and t, for drainage basins are well documented (Refs 1 and 2) and will not be elaborated on in this paper However, designers usually have problems estimating the intensity (I) of the design storm, due to the lack of locally derived IDF curves. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves are a family of curves which show the frequency of occurrence (or return period) of the maximum mean rainfall intensity associated with a number of durations. Preparation of these will enable the engineer/designer to easily read the desired intensity (I) corresponding to a return period (T), using a rainfall duration equal to the time of concentration t.. ‘An intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) analysis based on rainfall data from a single station relates, in the strictest sense, only to the specific location. It can however, be considered reliable for a limited region surroundil 1g the reference location, an area not usually exceeding twenty five square kilometers (25 km*). For larger areas, point values are generally reduced by means of area reduction curves (Ref 3). The objective of this report is firstly to publish derived rainfall IDF curves for Kingston and Montego Bay, and secondly to demonstrate a method for the development of IDF curves for any location where similar rainfall data exists.Ackne ‘The Authors would like to thank the entire Team of the Hydrological Support Unit for their invaluable contribution to the production of this document. The National Meteorological Services (NMS) provided invaluable data for the completion of this document and gratitude and best wishes in the re- establishment of their data base are extended towards them. Most of all, Gratitude is extended to the UNDP and the GOJ for making this possible. Authors Michael St. S. Lawrence Philbert E. Brown Project Direction Thorant Hardware Michael S. Lawrence Consultation Herbert Thomas Bernard Williams Francis Murphy Errol Douglas Courtney Alexander Tying Paulette Robertson Project Director Hydrometeorologist Project Coordinator Project Direction Hydrologist Watershed Engineer Information Systems Engineer Senior Technician Assistant Hydrologist (UWA) Senior Technician (UWA) Project Secretary.2.0 INTENSITY-DURATION-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS 2.1_Gumbel’s Extremal Distribution commonly used distribution of extreme values (annual series) is the Gumbel or Extreme Value Type 1 (EV1) distribution (Ref 1). The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of this distribution takes the form: A XS) “A 2) exp -exp| 4) (2) Where the parameters u and a are functions of the first moment about the origin, and the second moment about the mean respectively. Two of the commonly used methods of estimating the parameters tf the extreme value distribution from observed data are the methods of moments and ‘he Graphical method. The Method of Moments uses Chow's general equation (Ref 4) for hydrologic frequency analysis: ek KS 3) Where x first moment about the origin (mean) the square root of the second moment about the mean (standard deviation) k frequency factorThe graphical method consists of plotting rank data on Gumbel extreme value Probability paper to fita straight line. The Weibull plotting position formual (Ret 1), is most commonly used in this method. Probability Weigh mn The method of parameter estimation of the Gumbel Distribution used in this report is based on Probability Weighted Moments (Ref 5), and not just the Conventional moments estimate as described above in the first method. This method was chosen because it provides unbiased estimates of the parameters, by weighting each event in the sample by its probability of occurrence. It can only be used in deriving expressions for the parameters of distributions whose inverse forms can be explicitly defined. The Gumbel distribution can be written in both forms F: (x) and x=x(F) and hence its parameters can also be estimated by Probability Weighted Moments. Probability Weighted Moments are defined by: pA XIFI IFS [X81 Fat (a) where |,j, and k are real numbers.For the special case of | = 1 andj = 0. The discrete from of equation (4) is ca Mae Et Kal ®) where W(1-,))* and Fy =/=0,38 and hence Moo AEX) (6) Ma 9.97 EM 1 LEO 881) ” The inverse form of the Gumbel distribution can be expressed as: HF) “Xe ural -In ( -InF (x))) 8) where Ax) -(1-4)‘The estimates of parameters a and u expressed in terms of Probebility Weighted Moments (Ref 4) are: a Mog-2Mos = UM o,o-0. 57720 (10) The moments M,.oo and M,9, can be calculated from the data using equations (6) and (7). The values of @ and @ calcualted from equations (9) and (10) are ‘then substituted into equation (8) to estimate point rainfall values for different return periods (T). 2.3_Data Used and Sample Calculation Annual maximum rainfall values for durations ranging from five minutes (5 mins) to twenty four hours (24 hrs) were obtaii "d_ from Jamaica’s National ‘Meteorological Service for each international airport in Kingston and Montego Bay, ‘The data from the Norman Manley international Airport in Kingston covered the thirty three (33) year period from 1957 to 1989, Twenty two years (22 vis) of data were available trom the Sangster International Airport, Montego Bay, between 1969 - 1991Tables 1 and 2 present the annual maximum rainfall values for both locations for periods of § mins, 10 mins, 15 mins, 30 mins, 60 mins, 2 hrs, 6 hrs, 12 bs, and 24 hrs. ‘A sample calculation is presented in Table 3 to demonstrate how the Gumbel (EV1) Distribution is combined with Probability Weighted Moments to produce estimates of T-year rainfall intensities (I) for storms of dtferent durations. This table determines the intensity values for 2 hr storms at the Sangster International Airport, for return periods of 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. 3.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ‘The results of the calculations for the derivation of the Rainfall IDF Curves for Kingston and Montego Bay are presented in Table 4. ‘The calculated intensity values have been plotted on graph paper to produce these curves (Figures 1 - 4). Two sets of curves are plotted for each location, fone for shorter storms of dur jons of up to two (2) hours, and the other for storms of durations between two (2) hours and twenty four (24) hours. The resented IDF curves gives intensities in metric units (mmvhr). Care should be taken to convert them to english units (in/hr) for use in the Rational Formula asit is presented earlier in this report These curves show that for extreme storms which last between six (6) and twenty four (24) hours, Kingston has higher overall rainfall intensities than Montego Bay. However storms of durations less than two (2) hours are more intense in Montego Bay than in Kingston, and hence more flash flooding can be expected in Montego Bay. ‘The derivation of these curves has demonstrated a method for the development of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves for any location where adequate rainfall data may exist. It is hoped that this report will enhance many engineers’ understanding of point rainfall analysis, and lead to future improved drainage designs.| 4.0 REFERENCES 1. Viessman, W., Knapp, J.W., Lewis, G.L., and Harbaugh, T.E., “Introduction to Hydrology”, 2nd ed., New York, IEP, 1977 : Chapters Sand 11 2. U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, "Design of Small Dams", 2nd ed., Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, 1997 : Chapter Il World Meteorological Organization, “Guide to Hydrological Practices, Volume II", 4th ed. Geneva, WMO-No.168, 1983 : Chapter 5. 4. Chow, Ven T., "A General Formula for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis", Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, Vol. 32, 1951 : 231 - 237, 5. Greenwood, J.A., Landwehr, J.M., Matalas, N.C., and Wallis, J.R., “Probability Weighted Moments: Definition and Relation to Parameters of Several Distributions Expressable in Inverse Form”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 15(5), 1979 : 1049 - 1054.5.0 LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: ‘Annual Maximum Rainfall Values, Norman Manley Airport. Annual Maximum rainfall Values, Sangster Airport. ‘Sample Calculations of T-Year Intensities, Using Probability Weigthed Moments Calculated Rainfall Intensities and Return Periods for !OF Curves.‘TADDE A ORNRM HUMLEX_GITERIATIONAL MIRFORE. KINGETON . DR¥AIC ve Sin ie min asain 20min comin 2ar 6 hr azar 26 br 1970 peas sa 99,92 139.80 119.0 son a.68 16.76 19.20 29.97 42.42 45.97TABLE 2: BANGSTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, HORTEGO BAY. JAMAICA ANNUAL MAXIMOM RAINFALL VALUES (nm). ve 1969 1970 197 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 sea 1983 ses 1985 ase 1987 1988 1989 1990 3991 Simin 10 nin 7.60 2.90 26.10 32.70 9.10 20.10 10.90 20.20 5.80 15-40 7.20 2.80 8.80 8.80 10.20 12.80 14.00 19.60 47.00 15.00 20.10 32.30 22.90 15.00 15.20 32.20 22.90 25.00 19.50 8.50 15.10 14.00 17.30 15.80 24.30 as min 18.50 24.60 63-50 17-80 22.60 24.40 19.60 22.90 17.50 15.70 23.40 45.20 30.00 26.20 9.70 18.40 26.70 22.80 20.10 26.50 20 ain 22.90 25.40 a1.20 71.40 30.50 29.50 24,40 0 31.00 21.30 21.60 39.10 54.20 45.70 42.50 37.60 30.60 30.70 46.10 29.40 28.10 60 min 2 br 35.60 47.70 39.60 73.72 32.50 40.90 35.60 35.60 93.50 22.98 24.10 54.40 72.10 57.50 55.70 26.70 34.90 35.20 37.60 35.90 39.60 78.00 52.30 45.20 38.30 43.90 34.00 34.00 74.60 57.60 33.50 45.60 47.40 ar 52.10 62.00 49.80 78.70 91.20 72.60 44.70 55.60 56.40 35.80 34.00 66.50 74.20 61.90 21.50 62.40 37.00 54.50 68.40 86.40 124.40 174.90 46.10 28.70 52.20 29.90 57.40 29.90 a2 hr 61.00 62.00 49.80 78.70 15.30 77.50 58.20 60.00 36.30 34.00 66.50 74.20 61.90 82.50 63.40 38.10 54.50 71.00 175.00 57.40 29.90 2a ne 68,30 62.00 49.80 748.70 120.40 60.20 44.70 60.80 62.40 39.20 34.00 66.50 74.20 61.90 21,50 62.40 39.20 54.50 nae 176.20 57.409) mma cnuerton oF -RAR nails ezeuezraze aay) pre nn or anGAEED Aon {Sate fi he Annual Haslam nanPeit Goaye tents Bay) vt sui an 2a. es espa ea cee ceded ve 8, ese te ce fe : oes wa Sow ee eee eel me ORS 2m Ee as am So Pe SS ia Se 3 m4 Mine = 1952/50/22 = 92.99, © Muay = 450.55/22 = 20.48 pe ei, Maser 6 seas 2s gee ee wee eae6.0 Fig t Fig 2 Fig 3 Fig 4 LIST OF FIGURES IDF CURVE IDF CURVE IDF CURVE IDF CURVE Norman Manley Aisport t, = 5-120 minutes, Norman Manley Airport 2-24 hours. Sangster Airport t, = 5- 120 minutes. Sangster Airport 2-24 hoursoz sor o (sumpat = ¢ = 9) saa VOIVAVE * NO. vor ivan (aW/wW) LuaswHINtNoLvandt (CU/ NH) AUISNALNT "TIVaNIVA