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RUSSIA AND THE AFGHAN PEACE

PROCESS
By
Muhammad Taimur Fahad Khan
Research Associate
Centre for Strategic Perspectives (CSP), ISSI

Edited by
Najam Rafique

March 5, 2021

(Views expressed in the brief are those of the author, and do

not represent those of ISSI)

"The United States, not the Taliban, breaching the Afghan peace deal."1 This was
stated by Russia's Presidential Envoy to Afghanistan Ambassador Zamir Kabulov on
February 17, 2021. This statement came hours before the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization's (NATO) defense ministers' meeting which deferred the possibility of
forces' withdrawal from Afghanistan by the US appointed May 1, 2021 deadline.2

There seems to be a change in the policy orientation and attitude of Russia towards the peace
process in Afghanistan.

Despite allegations of playing the role of an antagonist for peace in Afghanistan3, Russia, a former
invader of Afghanistan, has adopted a positive policy approach towards the country in general and
the ongoing conflict in particular. Russia has been making some genuine efforts towards the
cessation of hostilities in Afghanistan and establishment of peace and security in the war-ravaged
country.

1
Ayaz Gul, "Russia Alleges US, Not Taliban, Breaching Afghan Peace Deal", Voice of America (VOA), updated
on February 17, 2021. https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/russia-alleges-us-not-taliban-
breaching-afghan-peace-deal
2
Jeff Seldin, "NATO Defers on Afghanistan Pullout, Calls on Taliban to Negotiate in 'Good Faith'", Voice of
America (VOA), updated on February 18, 2021. https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/nato-
defers-afghanistan-pullout-calls-taliban-negotiate-good-faith
3
Scott Neuman, "Top U.S. Commander In Afghanistan Accuses Russia Of Aiding Taliban", NPR, published on
March 26, 2018. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/26/596933077/top-u-s-
commander-in-afghanistan-accuses-russia-of-aiding-taliban

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 IB Russia and The Afghan Peace Process March 5, 2021

While fully supportive of the international effort to eradicate terrorism from Afghanistan since
20014, Russia also initiated the "Moscow Format"5 of consultations for deliberations on establishing
peace in Afghanistan and providing an inclusive platform for all important stakeholders to reach a
common understanding that can finally bring an end to the protracted war.

The Moscow Format was an important platform where representatives from 11 countries from
across the world were in attendance, including members of the Taliban political office and various
Afghan groups and factions. It was the first time that the Taliban were invited to an international
forum for discussion on peace in Afghanistan.

Furthermore, Russia was also an active part of the "Four Party Talks"6 that were initiated to resume
US-Taliban negotiations and ensure that the settlement protects the human, political and economic
rights of Afghans as a priority. These talks included Russia, China and Pakistan. In these talks, US was
represented by US representative for Afghan reconciliation, Zalmay Khalilzad.

Moreover, the Russian leadership, especially President Vladimir Putin have stated on several
occasions that Russia is ready to work with all stakeholders in Afghanistan, especially the US, for the
resolution of the conflict. He has stated, however, that the US presence in Afghanistan is not seen as
a threat to Moscow's external interests.7

Russia, since the US invasion, has adopted a very mature approach towards Afghanistan and also
started to be actively involved in Afghan affairs. It is a strong advocate of a peaceful, political
settlement of the Afghan conflict, a settlement which is Afghan-owned and Afghan-led.

Besides the political and diplomatic support extended by Russia to Afghanistan, the former has also
contributed materialistically in Afghanistan by investing substantially in the agriculture, transport,
mining and development sectors.8

This policy approach towards Afghanistan in general and the Afghan conflict in particular is practical,
mature and simultaneously extremely beneficial for Afghanistan as well. Such a policy discourse is
instrumental for Russia's long term interests vis-a-vis Afghanistan and the region.

4
Dmitri Trenin and Alexei Malashenko, "Afghanistan - A View From Moscow", Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, (Moscow, 2010). https://carnegieendowment.org/files/trenin_afghan_final.pdf
5
Zahid Hussain, "The 'Moscow Format'", Dawn, published on November 14, 2018.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1445504
6
Tahir Khan, "Four-party talks in Moscow seek resumption of US-Taliban negotiations", Arab News,
updated on October 25, 2019. https://www.arabnews.pk/node/1574236/pakistan
7
"Putin says US presence in Afghanistan not against Russia's interests", 1TV News Afghanistan, published
on October 26, 2020. https://1tvnews.af/26/10/2020/5352/
8
Samuel Ramani, "Russia's Soft Power Push in Afghanistan", The Diplomat, published on November 29,
2017. https://thediplomat.com/2017/11/russias-soft-power-push-in-afghanistan/

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 IB Russia and The Afghan Peace Process March 5, 2021

With horrific experiences with militancy and terrorism in the Middle East (case in point Syria), it is in
Russia's benefit not to let the same experience get translated in Afghanistan with spill-over effects to
Central Asia that is practically Russia's backyard. Elimination of the illicit trade of narcotics
emanating from Afghanistan is a Russian policy goal9 which is only possible with establishment of
peace and stability in the country, hence the Russian efforts for peace in Afghanistan.

Russia seems to be mainly following the US lead and supporting the current Doha Format and its
consequent Intra-Afghan Dialogue. It can be observed from the statements given by the Russian
leadership that they are following the 'wait and watch' policy with regard to Afghanistan. While they
want peace, but they are also anxious what will become of Afghanistan post-US withdrawal.

In line with this policy, Russia has once again sought the help of concerned partners, particularly the
"enlarged troika" (countries with the most influence on the Afghan peace process including US,
China, Iran, Pakistan and Russia), to help facilitate the stalled Afghan peace process by hosting a new
meeting of the stakeholders in Moscow in the coming days.10

According to Ambassador Zamir Kabulov, the US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has also agreed to
the proposition of holding such a meeting in Moscow as well. Russia already enjoys China, Pakistan
and Iran's confidence in this regard.11-12-13

To sum up earlier discussion, Russian efforts for a lasting and durable peace in Afghanistan seem to
be genuine and sincere out of sheer political, strategic and economic necessities (if nothing else).
Russia is strictly against any abrupt withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan without a workable and
mutually agreed post-withdrawal plan. It is constantly advising caution to the US and its coalition
partners as was evident from the statements made by Ambassador Kabulov during the recent visit to
Islamabad14 and Russian Ambassador to Pakistan H.E. Danila Ganich at a webinar15 that said that

9
The Paris Pact Initiative, "Illicit Drug Trends in the Russian Federation", UN Office on Drugs and Crime -
Regional Office for Russia and Belarus, published in April 2008.
https://www.unodc.org/documents/regional/central-asia/Illicit%20Drug%20Trends%20Report_Russia.pdf
10
Ayesha Tanzeem, "Russian Envoy Visits Pakistan as Part of Effort to Jumpstart Stalled Afghan Peace
Process", Voice of America (VOA), published on February 19, 2021. https://www.voanews.com/south-
central-asia/russian-envoy-visits-pakistan-part-effort-jumpstart-stalled-afghan-peace-process
11
"China, Russia, U.S., Pakistan hold talks on Afghan peace process", Xinhua News, published on October 26,
2019. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-10/26/c_138504646.htm
12
Press Release No PR-32/2021-ISPR, "H.E. Mr Zamir Kabulov, Russian Presidential Envoy to Afghanistan
called on General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Chief of Army Staff (COAS) at GHQ, today", Inter-Services Public
Relations (ISPR), published on February 19, 2021. https://www.ispr.gov.pk/press-release-
detail.php?id=6059
13
"Joint Statement by the Special Representatives on Afghanistan Affairs of Russia, China, Iran and
Pakistan", The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, published on May 18, 2020.
https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/4130492
14
Ibid.

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 IB Russia and The Afghan Peace Process March 5, 2021

Russia made mistakes in Afghanistan earlier which it never wants to repeat and so shouldn't the US
now!.

15
News Desk, "KCFR holds webinar on Russia-Pakistan relations", Pakistan Today, published on February 09,
2021. https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2021/02/09/kcfr-holds-webinar-on-russia-pakistan-
relations/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=231583ae0e190f145ed62508af28dcfe4450e2a5-1614254687-0-
AcqluirlHj9umUt3eTJJbrlNMkel3DHMB5uhI7VCy57OWIVjNn7wJmFXamyXo5QjFC6F9dRhZj07eU48QUbPM
4CZsI_7p2zG9AhK_Eo1lh9CMhX5_U8nrzgdw02NNRuh75Nn9ElSYV0k_6dxmDlBxysPzGqeMqWdLW1Ofy-
jdB5WV4vOVNxGGPH_7ULbZo7JFBmtDudlYOYQUz6awtqqQbvyG1c0gQwOxykoKbus-
dIU7VqakDuthHn5ghnN_hsqHnHOsKLAx4lB6kqUMQbXOJe_qe5wIW5F6zeybVy-
lOMGHGr4eM2b26V6Lb33AbVArVqcUBksbwjjPwLYUoZz503747jRC2EO6Ex9NRZwm40xAfXJnQ58fk0duGQ
j7rl0hA

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