Problem Set #3

10 points
DUE DATE: Saturday following end of Module 5: Check D2L for actual due date

Goal: Calculate diagnostic test measures and interpret results.

1. 5 POINTS: A recent publication (see paper which will be released once you submit this assignment)
provides details about a new diagnostic test for COVID-19 compared to the gold standard PCR
testing. A total of 386 people were tested using the new procedure and PCR testing. 71 people tested
positive by PCR, while 67 tested positive by the new test. 315 tested negative by PCR and the new
test.

Complete the 2 x 2 table below:

PCR Positive PCR Negative
Test Positive 67 0 67
Test Negative 4 315 319
71 315 386

Calculate:
Prevalence = 71/386 = 18.4%
Sensitivity = 67/71 = 94.4%
Specificity = 315/315 = 100%
False Positive Rate = 0/315 = 0%
False Negative Rate = 4/71 = 5.6%
Positive Predictive Value (PPV) = 67/67 = 100%
Negative Predictive Value (NPV) = 315/319 = 98.7%

Interpret what each of these measures means.

2. 2.5 POINTS: Calculate what would happen to the false positive and false negative rates, and PPV and
NPV, if you kept sensitivity and specificity constant (as calculated in Question 1), but used this test in
1,000 people in an area with an expected prevalence of 10%. Interpret all of your results.

Complete the 2 x 2 table below:

PCR Positive PCR Negative
Test Positive 94 0 94
Test Negative 6 900 906
100 900 1000

Calculate:
False Positive Rate = 0/900 = 0%
False Negative Rate = 6/100 = 6%
Positive Predictive Value (PPV) = 94/94 = 100%
Negative Predictive Value (NPV) = 900/906 = 99.3%

Interpret what each of these measures means and the meaning of each of the changes.
3. 2.5 POINTS: Calculate what would happen to the false positive and false negative rates, and PPV and
NPV, if the sensitivity changed to 85% and specificity changed to 90%, in 1,000 people in an area
with an expected prevalence the same as calculated in Question 1. Compare these to the results
Interpret all of your results.

Complete the 2 x 2 table below:

PCR Positive PCR Negative
Test Positive 156 82 238
Test Negative 28 734 762
184 816 1000

Calculate:
False Positive Rate = 82/816 = 10.0%
False Negative Rate = 28/184 = 15.2%
Positive Predictive Value (PPV) = 156/238 = 65.5%
Negative Predictive Value (NPV) = 734/762 = 96.3%

 Remember prevalence from first question is 18.4% so number of positive by PCR = 184

Interpret what each of these measures means and the meaning of each of the changes.

Grading: Grades are based on whether you attempted each question, NOT based on correct answers
right now. You must make a legitimate attempt to earn the points.