Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Forward Exchange Rate: With reference to its relationship with the spot rate, the forward rate may be at par, discount or
premium
PAR- Spot rate= Forward Exchange rate
Discount- Forward rate < Spot rate
Premium- Forward rate> spot rate
Swap Operation: The term swap means simultaneous sale of spot currency for the forward purchase of the same
currency or the purchase of spot for the forward sale of the same currency. The spot is swapped against forward.
Arbitrage: Arbitrage is the simultaneous buying and selling of foreign currencies with the intention of making profits
from the differences between the exchange rate prevailing at the same time in different market
Determination of Exchange Rates:
Purchasing Power Parity Theory
-the rate of exchange between two currencies must stand essentially on the quotient of the internal purchasing powers of
these currencies
Balance of Payments Theory
-the price of a currency, the exchange rate, is determined just like the price of any commodity is determined by the free
play of the forces of demand and supply.
To Conserve Foreign Exchange: The main objective of foreign exchange regulation is the conservation of the foreign
exchange resources .of the country and the proper utilization thereof in the interest .of the national development
To Check Capital Flight Exchange control may be employed to prevent flight of capital from the country and to regulate
the normal day-to-day capital movements.
To Improve Balance of Payments: Exchange control is .one .of the measures available to improve the balance .of
payments position.
To Curb Conspicuous Consumption: Exchange control may be used to prevent import and, thereby, consumption of
inessential 'luxury' goods.
To Make Possible Essential Imports: . By giving priority to such imparts in the allocation .of foreign exchange,
exchange control may ensure availability .of foreign exchange far these imparts.
To Protect Domestic Industries: Exchange control may also be employed as a measure to protect domestic industries
from foreign competition.
To Check Recession-induced Exports into the Country: If foreign economies are undergoing recession when 'he
domestic economy is free from it, the decline in prices .of foreign goods, due to the recession, may encourage their
exports into the country not yet affected by recession.
To Regulate Foreign Companies: Exchange Control may also seek to regulate the business of foreign companies in the
country
To Regulate Export and Transfer of Securities: Exchange control may be employed also for the purpose of controlling
the export and transfer of securities form the country.
Facilitate Discrimination and Commercial Bargaining: Exchange control offers scope for discrimination between
different countries. It would be used to accord exchange concessions, on a reciprocal basis, between different countries.
Enable the Government to Repay Foreign Loans: If the system of exchange control empowers the government to
acquire foreign exchange from the residents of the country, it becomes easy for the government to repay foreign loans.
To Lower the Price of National Securities held Abroad: It may be possible to reduce the price of national securities
held abroad by preventing nationals from buying them. This would enable the government to purchase such securities at a
lower price.
To Freeze Foreign Investments and Prevent Repatriation of Funds : Exchange control may be used to freeze
investments, including bank deposits, foreigners in the home country and to prevent the repatriation of funds out of the
country..
To Obtain Revenue: Governments may use exchange control to obtain some revenue by keeping certain margin between
the average purchase price and the average selling price of the foreign exchange.
Multinational Corporations: a corporation that controls production facility in more than one country, such facilities
having been acquired through the process of foreign direct investment
Dominance of MNCs: The economic dominance of the multinationals is manifested by the fact that the MNCs control
between a quarter and a third of all world production and the total sales of their foreign affiliates is about the same as the
gross national product of all developing countries excluding oil-exporting developing countries.
Technological Gap Model technological innovation forms the basis of trade. The innovating firm and nation get a
monopoly through patents and copyrights or other factors which turns other nations into importers of these products as
long as the monopoly remains. However, as foreign producers acquire this technology they may become more competitive
than the innovator because of certain favorable factors. When this happens, the innovating country may turn into an
importer of the very product it had introduced
Product Cycle Model According to this model an innovative product is often first introduced in an advanced county. The
product is then exported to other developed countries. As the markets in these developed countries enlarge, production
'facilities are established there.. Later, production facilities are established in the developing countries. They would then
start export.
Availability and Non-Availability:the availability approach states that a nation would tend to import those commodities
which are not readily available domestically and export those whose domestic supply can be easily expanded beyond the
quantity needed to satisfy the domestic demand.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INFLATION, INFLATIONARY GAP AND MEASURES TO
CONTROL INFLATION
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Structure
8.1 Introduction to Inflation
University of Chicago, inflation is fundamentally a monetary phenomenon.
Friedman, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon and can be produced
only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than output."
Johnson "inflation as a sustained rise in prices”.
Brooman "a continuing increase in the general price level."
Shapiro "as a persistent and appreciable rise in the general level of prices."
Dernberg and McDougall "the term usually refers to a continuing rise in prices as measured by an index such as the
consumer price index (CPI) or by the implicit price deflator for gross national product."
1. Creeping Inflation. When the rise in prices is very slow like that of a snailSuch an increase in prices is regarded safe
and essential for economic growth.
2. Walking or Trotting Inflation. It can be defined as when prices rise moderately and the annual inflation rate is a
single digit. Inflation lit this rate is a warning signal for the government to control it before it turns into running Inflation
3. Running Inflation. When prices rise rapidly like the running of a horse Such inflation affects
the poor and middle class.
4. Hyper inflation. When prices rise very fast at double or triple digit rates.hyperinflation is a situation when the rate of
Inflation becomes immeasurable and absolutely uncontrollable. Prices rise many times every day. Such a situation brings
a total collapse of the monetary system because of the continuous fall in the purchasing
power of money
Structural Inflation:inflation that results from changes in the structure of demand and supply. Under the influence of
changes in the structure of demand and supply, some branches will experience an increase in demand for their products,
while in the case of others, this demand will fall
Markup Inflation. If one firm raises its prices in order to maintain its desired markup, the costs of other firms are raised
which, in turn, raise their prices and this process of raising costs and prices will spread to other firms in an endless
chain.When consumers buy such goods whose prices are rising, their cost of living rises. This causes wage costs to rise,
thereby increasing the inflationary spiral
Open Inflation: Inflation is open when markets for goods or factors of production are allowed to function freely, setting
prices of goods and factors without normal interference by the authorities.
Suppressed Inflation: On the contrary, when the government imposes physical and monetary controls to check open
inflation, it is known as repressed or suppressed inflation.
Stagflation
The word stagflation" is the combination of stag plus flatiron, taking ‘stag' from stagnation
and 'flation' from inflation. Thus it is a paradoxical situation where the economy experiences stagnation or unemployment
along with a high rate of inflation. It is, therefore, also called inflationary recession
Causes of Inflation
Factors Affecting Demand: Both Keynesians and monetarists believe that inflation is
caused by increase in the aggregate demand
1.Increase in Money Supply
2. Increase in Disposable Income:
3. Increase in public Expenditure:
4. Increase in Consumer Spending:
5. Cheap Monetary Policy:
6. Deficit Financing:
7. Expansion of the Private Sector:
8. Black Money
9. Repayment of Public Debt:
10. Increase in Exports
Factors Affecting Supply: There are also certain factors, which operate on the opposite
side and tend to reduce the aggregate supply. Some of the factors are as follows:
1. Shortage of Factors of Production:
2. Industrial Disputes
3. Natural Calamities
4. Artificial Scarcities
5. Increase in Exports
6. Lop-sided Production
7. Law of Diminishing Returns
8. International Factors
8.7 Measures to Control Inflation
1. Monetary Measures: Monetary measures aim at reducing money incomes.
a) Credit Control:
b) Demonetizations of Currency
c) Issue of New Currency
2. Fiscal Measures: Monetary policy alone is incapable of controlling inflation. It should, therefore, be supplemented by
fiscal measures. . The principal fiscal measures are the following:
a) Reduction in Unnecessary Expenditure
b) Increase in Taxes
c) Increase in Savings
d) Surplus Budgets
e) Public Debt
3. Other Measures: The other types of measures are those which aim at increasing
aggregate supply and reducing aggregate demand directly.
To Increase Production: The following measures should be adopted to increase production:
a) Increase the production of essential consumer goods
b) If there is need, raw materials for such products may be imported on preferential basis to increase the production
of essential commodities.
c) Industrial peace should be maintained through agreements with trade unions, binding them not to resort to
strikes for some time.
d) The policy of rationalization of industries should be adopted as a long-term measure.
e) All possible help in the form of latest technology, raw materials, financial help, subsidies, etc. should be
provided to different consumer goods sectors to increase production.
Rational Wage Policy:
a) The government should freeze wages, incomes, profits, dividends, bonus, etc.
b) Link increase in wages to increase in productivity.
c) Price Control: Price control means fixing an upper limit for the prices of essential consumer goods. They are the
maximum prices fixed by law and anybody charging more than these prices is punished by law.
d) Rationing: Rationing aims at distributing consumption of scarce goods so as to make them available to a large number
of consumers.
Effects of Inflation
1. Effects on Redistribution of Income and Wealth
The poor and middle classes suffer because their wages and salaries are more or less fixed but the prices of
commodities continue to rise. They become more impoverished. On the other hand, businessmen, industrialists, traders,
real estate holders, speculators, and others with variable incomes gain during rising price.
a) Debtors and Creditors. During periods of rising prices, debtors gain and creditors lose. When prices rise the
value of money falls. Though debtors return the same amount of money, but they pay less in terms of goods and services
because the value of money is less than when they borrowed it.
b) Salaried Persons. Salaried workers lose when there is inflation. The reason is that their salaries are
slow to adjust when prices are rising
c) Wage Earners. Wage earners may gain or lose depending upon the speed with which their wages adjust to rising
prices. If their unions are strong, they may get their wages linked to the cost of living index
d) Fixed Income Group. All such persons lose because they receive fixed payments, while the value of money
continues to fall with rising prices.
e) Equity Holders or Investors. Persons who hold shares or stocks of companies gain during inflation. For when
prices are rising, business activities expand which increase profits of companies.
f) Businessman. Business of all types, such as producers, traders and real estate holders gain during periods of rising
prices.
g) Agriculturists. Agriculturists are of three types, landlords, peasant proprietors, and landless agricultural workers.
Landlords lose during rising prices because they get fixed rents. But peasant proprietors who own and cultivate their farms
gain. The landless agricultural workers lose because heir wages are not raised by the farm owners, because trade unionism
is absent among them. But the prices of consumer goods rise rapidly.
h) Government. The government as a debtor gains at the expense of households who are its principal creditors. This
is 'because interest rates on government bonds are fixed and are not raised to offset expected rise in prices
2. Effects on Production
Misallocation of Resources. producers divert resources from the production of essential to non-essential goods
which they expect higher profits.
Changes in the System of TransactionsIt means that time and energy are diverted from the production of good and
services, and some resources are used wastefully.
Reduction in Production. Inflation adversely affects the volume of production because of the expectation of rising
prices along with rising costs of inputs bring uncertainty.
Fall in Quality. producers preclude and sell sub-standard commodities in order to earn higher profits.
Hoarding and Black marketing. To profit more from rising pries, producers hoard stocks of their commodities and
sold it to black market.
Reduction in Saving. When 'prices rise rapidly, the propensity to save declines because more money is needed to
buy goods and services than before.
Hinders Foreign Capital. Inflation hinders the inflow of foreign capital because the rising costs of materials and
other inputs make foreign investment less profitable.
Encourages Speculation. Rapidly rising prices create uncertainty among producers who indulge in speculative
activities in order to make quick profits.
3. Other Effects
Government: the government gains under inflation for rising wages and profits spread an
illusion of prosperity within the country.
Balance of Payments.When prices rise more rapidly in the home country than in foreign countries, domestic
products become costlier compared to foreign products. This tends to increase imports and reduce exports, thereby
making the balance of payments unfavorable for the country
Exchange Rate. When prices rise more rapidly in the home country than in foreign countries, it lowers the exchange
rate in relation to foreign currencies. .
Collapse of the Monetary System. If hyperinflation persists and the value of money continues to fall many times in
a day, it ultimately leads to the collapse of the monetary system
Social. Inflation is socially harmful. By widening the gulf between the rich arid the poor, rising prices create
discontentment among the masses.
Political. Rising prices also encourage agitations and protests by political parties opposed to the government.
The most common measure of inflation is that of the Consumer Price Index or 'CPI' as calculated by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (the BLS). The CPI, also known as the Laspeyres Index, is calculated using a weighted average of
current to past price ratios for this basket of goods:
Deflation is the inverse of inflation. Deflation may be defined as a situation of falling prices, or what is the same thing as
saying, the rising value of money
Deflation will occur in either of the following two situations:
(a) When the aggregate demand falls, and / or
(b) When the supply rises.
a. Factors on the Demand side: On the demand side the major factors that work to
cause deflation are as follows:
Money Shortage
Fall in disposable income
Fall in business outlays
b. Factors on the supply side: On the supply side, deflation may be caused by a glut of
commodities which may result from over-investment and over-production
Effects of Deflation:
a) Effect on economic activity: Deflation leads to depression. Depression is a phase of economic activity
characterized by shrinking investment, shrinking production, shrinking employment of factor service and shrinking
income
b) Effect on Distribution of Income: Ordinarily, all those economic groups who gain during inflation tend to lose during
deflation. Conversely, those groups who lose during inflation tend to gain during deflation.
Measures to Check Deflation: Measures to check deflation take the same form as are used to check inflation,
• Monetary measures,
• Fiscal measures, and
• Non-monetary measures
Note: these measures have to operate in the reverse direction.