Socioeconomics of Climate Change in The Philippines: A Literature Synthesis (1990-2010)

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Socioeconomics of Climate Change in the Philippines: A Literature Synthesis (1990-2010) 1
Socioeconomics
of Climate Change in the
Philippines:
A Literature Synthesis
(1990-2010)
Asa Jose Sajise
Mercedita Sombilla
and Rico Ancog
Philippine Council for Agriculture,

Aquatic, Forestry and Natural
Resources Research and Development
2 Sajise, Sombilla and Ancog
The Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) is
one of the regional research and training centers of the Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization
(SEAMEO), an intergovernment body founded in 1965 to promote cooperation among Southeast Asian nations
through activities in education, science, and culture. SEARCA’s programs are designed to accelerate sustainable
agriculture and rural development through human resource development, research, technology transfer, and
information dissemination. It is hosted by the Philippine Government at the University of the Philippines Los
Baños, which is based in Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines. It is supported by donations from SEAMEO member
and associate member states, other governments, and various international donor agencies.
Established in 1972, the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic, Forestry and Natural Resources
Research and Development (PCAARRD), a sectoral council of the Department of Science and Technology, is
the apex organization of the Philippine national agricultural research system. Certified since 2003 as complying
with the ISO 9001:2000 standards in terms of its quality management system, PCARRD plays a significant role
in fostering science and technology (S&T)-based economic development through natural resource utilization and
management. For over three decades now, it has been providing a unified and focused direction for national
research and development (R&D) efforts in agriculture, aquatic, forestry, and natural resources (AFNR).
Socioeconomics of Climate Change in the Philippines: A Literature Synthesis (1990-2010)
Authors: Asa Jose Sajise, Mercedita Sombilla and Rico Ancog
Layout: Joel Anthony T. Cardenas
Co-published by SEARCA, Los Baños, Laguna and PCAARRD, Los Baños, Laguna
Printed in the Republic of the Philippines

First Printing, March 2012
Philippine Copyright 2012 by SEARCA and PCAARRD
Parts of this publication may be quoted without permission by other scholarly writing and in popular writing as
long as credit is given to the source. However, it may not be reproduced or transmitted in its entirety in any form
or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval
system, without permission in writing from SEARCA.
The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect a consensus of
views within SEARCA and PCAARRD.
ISBN 978-971-560-151-1
Table of Contents
Introduction and Framework of Analysis 13
Climate Change-Related Risks/Hazards in the Philippines 15

Observed Changes in Climate Change-Related Risks 18
Simulated Changes in Climate Change-Related Risks 19
Effects/Impacts of Threats Related to Climate Change 20
Human Responses to Climate Change and its Impacts 29

Mitigation 29
Forestry sector 30
Agriculture sector 32
Fisheries and marine ecosystems 33
Adaptation 33
Categorizing recommended adaptation options 34
Autonomous adaptation 38
Trends in the Literature 45

Historical Perspective on Climate Change Literature in the Philippines 45
Methodologies Used 45
Conclusion, Research Gaps, and Future Direction of Climate 51

Change Research in the Philippines
Ingredients of a Relevant Climate Change Research Program 51
Area-Based Approach 51
Sector-specific Recommendations 52
Cross-sectoral Studies 54
Literature Cited 56
Appendix 60
Acknowledgment
This project commissioned to the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and
Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) was made possible through funding from the Philippine Council
for Agriculture, Aquatic, Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCAARRD).
The annotated bibliography of socio-economic research on climate change that was undertaken by
Dr. Nicomedes D. Briones of the School of Environmental Science and Management at the University
of the Philippines Los Baños was a key input to this report. This part of the project was guided by a
team of Climate Change experts including Dr. Albert P. Aquino, Dr. Ernesto Brown, Dr. Roehlano
M. Briones, Dr. Ben Malayang, Dr. Corazon B. Rapera, Dr. Agnes C. Rola as well as by a group of
Science and Technology consultants including Dr. Arsenio M. Balisacan, Dr. Felino Lansigan, Dr.
Butch Lanzona, Dr. Rodel D. Lasco, and Dr. Reiner Wassman.
The authors would like to thank Dr. Reiner Wassmann of the International Rice Research Institute
(IRRI); Dr. Rodel D. Lasco of the World Aroforestry Center (ICRAF); and Dr. Leonardo A. Lanzona,
Jr. of Ateneo de Manila University for their additional comprehensive comments on the final draft
report. Language editing was done by Dr. Serlie Barroga-Jamias.
This report was presented in the Department of Science and Technology-National Academy of
Science and Technology (DOST-NAST) Roundtable Discussion on Socio-Economic Research on
Climate Change in the Philippines: Where We Are and Where We Are Going held on August 17,
2011 at Traders Hotel, Pasay City, Philippines. The comments and recommendations expressed in
the forum further enriched the report.
Last but not the least, sincere gratitude is extended to Dr. Danilo Cardenas who advocated the
conduct of the study to guide the country’s research agenda on climate change.
Acronyms
ADB - Asian Development Bank

AFNR - Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources sectors
AR4 - IPCC 4th Assessment Report
CAR - Cordillera Administrative Region
CDM - Clean Development Mechanism
CERES - Crop-Environment Resources Synthesis Models
CGCM - Canadian Global Climate Model
COs - Community Organizations
CO2 - Carbon dioxide
cv - coefficient of variation
CVEs - Climate Variability and Extremes
DM - dry matter
ENSO - El Niño Southern Oscillation
GCMs - general circulation models
GHGs - Greenhouse gases
GVA - Gross value added
IACCC - Inter-agency Committee on Climate Change
ICZM - Integrated Coastal Zone Management
IECs - Information, Education and Communication Campaigns
IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change
IRRI - International Rice Research Institute
LGU - Local Government Unit
LUCF - Land-use change in the forestry sector
NPV - Net Present Value
PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
PAR - Philippine Area of Responsibility
PCAARRD - Philippine Council for Agriculture, Aquatic, Forestry and Natural Resources
Research and Development
PES - Payments for Ecosystem Services
PRECIS - Providing for Regional Climate Impact Studies models
PV - Present Value
SEARCA - Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture
REECS - Resources, Environment and Economics Center for Studies, Inc.
REDD - Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation
SLR - Sea-level rise
SWIP - Small Water Impoundments
UNFCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
VAA - Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
WWF - World Wildlife Fund for Nature
Foreword
Climate change is conceded to have dire effects on the environment and if left unabated, would result
to irreversible damage. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather disturbances
manifests the onset of this natural phenomenon which in turn causes havoc to peoples' lives,
livelihoods, and ultimately endangers food security. This has triggered the need for governments to
focus attention and efforts not only in strengthening resilience and adaptability to climate change but
more importantly, mitigation strategies to abate its impacts.
As early as 1991, the Philippines began to respond to climate change through a series of policy and
legal initiatives under the oversight and coordination of then Inter-Agency Committee on Climate
Change (IACCC). Various special bodies were subsequently formed and programs implemented to
address the impact of climate change paying special attention to adaptation and mitigation practices
and technology-based interventions. The most recent initiative is the establishment of the Philippine
Climate Change Commission by virtue of the Philippine Climate Change Act of 2009 (Republic Act
9729) which is tasked to formulate and implement plans for the country to better respond to natural
disasters. Even at the local government level, programs and policies are being initiated to address
climate change.
Climate change is one of the numerous development issues confronting the Philippines competing
for a share of the country’s meagre budget. Nevertheless, significant headway has been made
in addressing expected impacts and risks related to climate change despite the lack of sufficient
scientific guidance. It is in this regard that we commissioned this review to document more
extensively researches and studies undertaken, particularly in socio economics. It seeks to validate
the scientific basis of current development efforts focused on the dynamics of human behavior and
choices as affected by or in response to climate change. More importantly, the review aims to identify
researchable areas related to the socio-economics of climate change in the Philippines, particularly
in the agriculture, forestry, and natural resources (AFRN) sectors. It is intended as a guide to policy
makers and program implementers for crafting an appropriate and cost effective climate change
agenda to protect the country from the impending hazards and effects of this phenomenon.
The literature review and synthesis on the “State of the Art on the Socioeconomics of Climate Change
in the Philippines: Expert Synthesis and Benchmarking,” was funded by the Philippine Council for
Agriculture, Aquatic, Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCAARRD).
The Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA)
synthesized and analyzed the body of climate change-related socioeconomic researches in the
Philippines covering the immediate past two decades (1990-2010) when attention to climate change
heightened. Though focused on the Philippines, the analysis, conclusions and identified research
gaps are consistent with and are reflective of the situation in the Southeast Asian Region as a whole.
The report is timely as plans to update the current Philippine Climate Change Strategic Framework
and Action Plan are underway.
SEARCA and PCAARRD continue to implement carefully crafted projects in response to emerging
challenges faced by the agriculture and rural sectors in the Philippines and Southeast Asia in the
coming decades, including Climate Change.
Patricio S. Faylon Gil C. Saguiguit, Jr.

Executive Director, PCAARRD Director, SEARCA
Photo by Rosemarie Razon

Introduction and Framework of Analysis
According to the Initial Communication of the Philippines, the Philippines is among the first countries
to respond to the challenge of the climate change phenomenon. As early as May 8, 1991, the
Philippine government had created the Inter-agency Committee on Climate Change (IACCC) by virtue
of Administrative Order No. 220. Since then, several initiatives such as action-oriented programs and
policies have followed to address climate change. Recently, the Philippine government established
the Philippine Climate Change Commission by virtue of the Philippine Climate Change Act of 2009
(Republic Act (RA) 9729), which was signed into law on October 23, 2009. The Commission is
tasked, among other things, to formulate and implement plans for the country to better respond to
natural disasters. Even at the local government level, proactive Local Government Units (LGUs)
like the Province of Albay and the City of Sorsogon have initiated programs and policies to address
climate change.
While we have made headway in the science and prediction of events related to climate change,
there have been few socio-economic literatures on climate change in the Philippines. We have yet to
document more extensively the processes and dynamics of human behavior and choices as affected
by climate change. How do people autonomously adapt to climate change?
This review is meant to fill in this gap. It is a comprehensive literature synthesis on climate change and
human adaptation from both published and electronic references. The main sources of information
are the Regional Review of the Economics of Climate Change by the Asian Development Bank (ADB,
2009) and the unpublished annotated bibliography of socio-economic literature related to climate
change undertaken by Briones et al. (2010). The synthesis’ end goal is to identify researchable areas
related to the socio-economics of climate change in the Philippines, specifically in the agriculture,
forestry, and natural resources (AFNR) sectors.
Knowledge of the socio-economics of climate change and its impacts, mitigation, and adaptation
can guide policy makers and program implementers on how to fully prepare the country for climate
change. It can also identify research gaps that should be addressed so that stakeholders can make
informed decisions and actions to mitigate and adapt to the problems associated with climate
change.
The synthesis is guided by the conceptual framework shown in Figure 1. The framework relates
the causes and impacts of climate change to the actions that help mitigate and/or adapt to such
impacts.
The first section discusses and identifies the major hazards and risks associated with climate
change in the Philippines. It also looks at available scientific evidence on the occurrence of climate
hazards. The second section looks at the impacts of these hazards/risks on water resources (stress),
agricultural productivity, and state of forests, marine, and coastal areas. The last two sections discuss
the literature on mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
Human activity
that leads to
excessive Climate change
Greenhouse
Gases (GHGs)
Impacts on:
Risks and threats Adaptation
associated with
climate change: • Ecosystems
Institutions • Economic
• Social
• etc.
Extreme weather Mitigation
Sea Level Rise
Flooding
Desertification
Figure 1. Conceptual framework for the literature synthesis
The discussions focus on the opportunities for mitigation in the different sectors and the information
needed to develop such mitigation measures. Likewise, different adaptation options to climate
change for the different sectors are identified. The literature synthesis covers the historical trends
of methodologies used in the economic analysis of climate change impacts. It includes some
observations on the methodologies that are being used to date. The concluding section offers some
recommendations on researchable areas in the future.
Climate Change-Related Risks/Hazards in the Philippines
Climate change manifests in many forms of threats or hazards. The World Wildlife Fund for Nature
(WWF, 2007) summarized these threats for the Philippines based on the Intergovernmental Panel for
Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4).
• Increase in temperatures as expressed by higher annual mean, maximum and minimum

values by 0.14°C from 1971 to 2000; increase in annual mean rainfall since the 1980s; and
increase in number of rainy days since the 1990s.
• Changes in extreme events and severe climate anomalies: increased occurrence of

landslides and floods in 1990 and 2004; droughts normally associated with El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) years causing massive crop failures, water shortages, and forest fires
(similar to Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia, and Vietnam). The 1997-98 El Niño event greatly
affected the production of rice and other crops in various parts of the Philippines (as well as
in Laos and Indonesia).
• On average, 20 tropical cyclones cross the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR). About
eight to nine tropical cyclones occur each year, with an increase of four cyclones entering
PAR during the period 1990 to 2003.
• Even under the most conservative scenario, the sea level by the end of the 21st century will
be about 40 cm higher than today. The sea level is projected to increase the annual number
of people flooded in coastal populations from 13 million to 94 million. About 20% of the
affected places and people will be in Southeast Asia.
• The increase in the cost of direct damage to Asia caused by tropical cyclones was more
than five times in the 1980s compared to the 1970s and 35 times more in the early 1990s
compared to the 1970s. In the 1990s, flood-related damages also increased by about three
times relative to the 1980s and eight times compared to the 1970s. These trends are likely
to persist in the future.
A more recent study by the ADB (2009) on the Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia
identifies the four primary climate hazards in the Philippine context as a) temperature increase, b)
rainfall, c) extreme weather events, and d) sea level rise (SLR). ADB has the most comprehensive
review of literature on climate change in the Philippines and in Southeast Asia to date. In some ways,
the ADB figures are more context-specific to the Philippines than the figures in the IPCC Report that
are more global in orientation.
Table 1 shows the available scientific evidence on the increasing frequency and severity of the
climate change hazards or risks in the country. These trends are based on either observed history
of events or simulations using mathematical models. Observed trends are those documented from
Table 1. Observed and predicted climate change risks in the Philippines
16
Climate Change-Associated Risks Observed Trends Citation Projected Trends Citation
Temperature Increase Departures from the annual mean, maximum, and Tibig (2004); Manton Under the A1B scenario mean annual Hilario et al. (2010)
minimum temperatures in recent years of 0.61°C, et al. (2001) temperatures in the Philippines are expected
0.34°C, and 0.89°C, respectively, from the 1961 to 1990 to rise by about 0.9oC to 1.4oC for 2020 and
normal values, indicating an increase in temperature. 1.7oC to 2.4oC by 2050.
The frequency of hot days and warm nights has
increased and the number of cold days and cool nights
has decreased.
Significant increasing trend in annual mean temperature Hilario et al. (2010)
and significant frequency of hot days and warm nights.
From 1951 to 2006, a) annual mean temperature
Sajise, Sombilla and Ancog
increased by 0.6104oC, b) mean annual maximum

temperature increased by 0.3472oC, and c) mean annual
minimum temperature increased by 0.8904oC.
Precipitation/ Rainfall Since 1960, the mean annual rainfall and the number Anglo (2006) Rainfall in the Philippines would continue to Perez (2008)
of rainy days in the Philippines have increased. But as be highly variable, as influenced by seasonal
in other places, the country has experienced similar changes and climate extremes (e.g., El Niño
variability at the onset of the rainy season. The trend has Southern Oscillation [ENSO] events), and be
been towards decreasing rainfall over Luzon and parts of of higher intensity
Mindanao and increasing rainfall over the central western
part of the country (the Visayan islands).
Extreme rainfall intensity (1951 – 2008). In most parts Hilario et al. (2010) Projection of seasonal temporal rainfall Hilario et al. (2010)
of the country, the intensity of rainfall is increasing variation is largest (-35% to 45%) during
with Baguio, Tacloban, and Iloilo showing statistically March-April-May (dry months become drier).
significant increases. Projections of temporal variation is lesser
(-0.5% to 25%) during December-January-
Frequency of extreme daily rainfall (1951-2008). In most February and September-October-November
parts of the country, daily rainfall is generally increasing. (wet months become wetter). The highest
Calapan, Laoag, Iloilo, and Tacloban show statistically increase in rainfall during southwest
significant increasing trends, while Palawan shows a monsoon season (JJA) is likely in Region 1
significantly decreasing trend. (44%), CAR (29%), Region 3 (34%), Region
4 (24%), and Region 5 (24%) in 2050.
Table 1. Observed and predicted climate change risks... (continued)
Climate Change-Associated Risks Observed Trends Citation Projected Trends Citation
Extreme Weather Events In the Philippines, the frequency of typhoons entering Amadore (2005); Modeling results indicate that climate change Hilario et al. (2010)
its area of responsibility increased significantly from Emmanuel (2005) will lead to an active southwest monsoon in
1990 to 2003. On average, 20 tropical cyclones, most Luzon and Visayas.
of them originating from the Pacific, hit the area each
year, with nine making landfalls. Most of these tropical
cyclones pass over the Central Visayas region. During
the past 15 years, the country was hit by the strongest
typhoon ever recorded, the most destructive typhoon,
the deadliest storm, and the typhoon that registered
the highest recorded 24-hour rainfall. Almost 80% of
disasters occurring in the country over the past 100 years
have been weather-related, with typhoons and floods
contributing to the two highest event categories
Tropical cyclones. There is no significant trend in the Hilario et al. (2010)

number of cyclones forming in or entering the country’s
area of responsibility in the past 58 years (1948 - 2005).
The trend in the five-year running average of tropical
cyclones with velocity greater than 150 kph is on the rise
and had been more frequent during the El Niño events.
Sea Level Rise Studies on rising sea levels in major coastal cities show a Yanagi and Akaki In the Philippines, increase in sea level of Hulme and Sheard
slight upward trend (Yanagi and Akaki, 1994). The Manila (1994); Perez (1999); 0.19–1.04 m by 2080 relative to mean sea (1999)
area has exhibited a particularly strong increase in mean Hulme and Sheard, level from 1961 to 1990
sea levels, probably because of a combination of local 1999)
subsidence and a global rise in sea level.
17
actual observations of climate change risks. Simulation studies are those that use models to predict
or forecast what would likely happen in the future based on trends and key parameters.
Observed Changes in Climate Change-Related Risks
Studies have recorded actual trends for all the four climate hazards. Table 1 shows that the annual
mean, maximum, and minimum values of temperature have been increasing from 1961 to 1990.
More recent and longer temperature records for 1950 to 2008 also point to increasing temperatures
(Hilario et al., 2010). Likewise, the frequencies of hot days and warm nights have increased, while
those of cold days and cool nights have decreased. These observed increases in temperature have
been cited several times in various printed media ranging from journal articles (Manton et al., 2001;
Tibig, 2004; Hilario et al., 2010) to information, education, and communication campaign (IEC)
brochures on climate change.
Extreme weather events, most especially typhoons, have also increased in strength. Based on
a five-year running average (between 1948 to 2005), the trend shows that tropical cyclones with
velocity greater than 150 kph are on the rise, while strong cyclones are more frequent during El Niño
events (Anglo, 2006). Regions where storms made landfalls have also changed. Whereas previous
typhoon-prone areas were the Eastern Visayas (e.g., Samar and Bicol), recent typhoons (such as
Typhoon Frank) are now affecting the Western Visayas region. Most recently, typhoons such as
Ondoy and Peping have been veering towards Northern Luzon. These typhoons linger for days
resulting in heavy flooding.
The frequency of typhoons also appears to increase although this trend depends on the time window
used for analysis. The frequency of typhoons entering the country’s area of responsibility increased
significantly during 1990-2003. On the average, 20 tropical cyclones, most of them originating from
the Pacific, hit the country each year, with nine typhoons making landfall (Amadore, 2005; and
Emmanuel, 2005). However, Hilario et al. (2010) contradicted this observation based on new and
longer time-series data from 1948 to 2005. Based on Hilario et al.’s analysis, there has been no
significant difference in the number of cyclones forming in or entering the PAR during the last 58
years. Rather, the typhoons have been more hazardous because of their increased strength.
Precipitation and rainfall have also been increasing because of climate change. Hilario et al (2010)
observed that in most parts of the country, the intensity of extreme rainfall is increasing. Baguio,
Tacloban, and Iloilo showed statistically significant increases between 1951 and 2008. Concurrently,
frequencies of extreme daily rainfall are generally increasing for most parts of the country. Hilario
et al. (2010) noted that Calapan, Laoag, Iloilo, and Tacloban have shown a statistically significant
increasing trend whereas a significantly decreasing trend was found in Palawan. Anglo (2006) noted
the same trends in precipitation and rainfall for a shorter time- series data. His observations indicated
decreasing rainfall over Luzon and parts of Mindanao and increasing rainfall over the central western
part of the country (i.e., the Visayan islands).
Another threat that has received much attention is sea level rise. The sea level is expected to rise
because of global warming caused by thermal expansion of the ocean in combination with melting
glaciers. Being an archipelagic country, the Philippines is expected to experience drastic impacts of
sea level rise that has been observed as early as the 1990s. In particular, there has been a strong
increase in mean sea levels in Manila probably because of a combination of local subsidence and
a global rise in sea level. Aggravating erosion observed in most coastal areas may also be taken as
an indicator of rising sea levels.
Simulated Changes in Climate Change-Related Risks
Apart from an ex-post analysis of changes in climate-related hazards and threats, some researchers
have also conducted projection simulation of climate-related events. These ex-ante simulations
were done to project likely changes in climate parameters and their associated threats in the future.
Scenarios are being built for different time spans, some extending to as far as 2080.
Of the threats discussed earlier, temperature increase, precipitation/rainfall, and sea level rise have
been prominently studied. The results of the various simulations are also summarized in Table 1.
Most of the studies were summarized from information contained in Economics of Climate Change
in Southeast Asia (ADB, 2009). These studies were based on different general circulation models
(GCMs) including those used in the IPCC reports.
To obtain results at the country level, Hilario et al. (2010) used the modeling system “Providing for
Regional Climate Impact Studies” (PRECIS) from the Hadley Center. PRECIS was developed “to
generate high resolution climate change information for many regions.” One drawback of genuine
GCM-based models without downscaling has been the large resolutions of the resulting scenarios.
These scenarios may not be directly useful in regional planning. Despite the differences in simulation
models, the trends point to increasing risks brought about by climate change.
Both empirical and simulated studies in the Philippines have shown that the primary climate change
risk now and in the future would be hydrometeorological in nature - that is, having too much water
than needed. Other prominent hazards such as landslides and flooding are often secondary effects
caused by the hydrometeorological events.
Effects/Impacts of Threats Related to Climate Change
Ultimately, the hazards of climate change will have specific impacts on both humans and ecosystems.
This section summarizes studies that provide quantitative and qualitative evidence of the impacts of
climate-related hazards. Identified risks and impacts are derived from either observed or simulated
data. As in the ADB study (2009), the literature reviewed is presented under these categories: a)
water stress, b) decline in agricultural production, c) effects on forests, and d) effects on coastal and
marine areas.
Alternatively, the literature synthesis could have been structured according to specific climate
change threats (as mentioned in the previous section). However, such categorization would not
be appropriate, since individual risks are often compounded in their sector impacts. For instance,
extreme weather events and the associated flooding often intertwine in damaging the functioning of
agricultural production or ecosystem services.
Table 2 compiles studies that have documented observed impacts from actual events and the
monetary valuations of damages in specific sectors. It also shows the likely impacts of various climate
change scenarios based on the results of simulation models that estimate the changes of physical
measures critical to the effective functioning of various sectors. Monetary valuation of these impacts,
however, is difficult. Quantification seems subjective given that socioeconomic conditions would
change in the future. What can perhaps be done in the future is to pursue monetary approximations
with these simulation results to assess monetary damages from mitigation/adaptation measures
vis-à-vis inaction.
Table 2. Impacts of climate hazards on different ecosystems
Impacts of Climate Change- Observed Impacts of Climate

Citation Predicted Impacts Citation
Related Threats Change-Related Risks
Water Stress The 1997–1998 El Niño years reduced Perez (2008) A preliminary and limited assessment of the country’s water resources Jose and Cruz (1999)
water in the Angat dam by 10%, was done applying the general circulation model (GCM). Simulation
resulting in water rationing (daily of climate change scenarios incorporated incremental changes in
service shortened by about 4 hours) in temperature and rainfall using a hydrological model to determine
some areas. the future runoff-rainfall relationship. Results showed that changes
in rainfall and temperature in the future will be critical to future inflow
in the Angat reservoir and in Lake Lanao, with rainfall variability
having a greater impact than temperature variability. In the Angat
reservoir, runoff is likely to decrease in the future and be insufficient
to meet future demands for water. Lake Lanao is also expected to
have decreased runoff in the future. In the Angat water reservoir, it
is projected that a 6% decrease in precipitation and a 2°C increase
in temperature will result in a 12% decrease in runoff. However, if
precipitation increases by 3 –15% and the temperature by 2.4°C –
3.1°C, runoff will increase by 5% –32%.
Contamination of groundwater used Perez (2008) The lumped hydrologic BROOK90 model was utilized for the Combalicer et al.
for both drinking and irrigation in some water balance assessment of climate change impacts based on (2010)
parts of Northern Luzon because of two scenarios (A1B and A2) from the Canadian Global Climate
advancing seawater. Model CGCM3experiment. The water balance showed that 42%
of precipitation is converted into evaporation, 48% into stream flow,
and 10% into deep seepage loss. The impacts of climate change on
water balance reflected dramatic fluctuations in hydrologic events
leading to high evaporation losses and decrease in stream flow, while
groundwater flow appeared unaffected
21
22
Table 2. Impacts of climate hazards... (continued)

Between 1991 and 2006, around 10,000 people died as Amadore (2005)
victims of flash floods and landslides. From 1975 to 2002,
intensified tropical cyclones caused an annual average of 593
deaths and annual damage to property worth US$ 83 million,
including damage to agriculture of around US$ 55 million.
The flash flood in Ormoc and the flooding event in the coastal
areas along Cabalian Bay in Southern Leyte because of
storm surge/sea level rise brought tremendous damage
and significant impacts to households and the community.
Historical data for the Ormoc flash flood showed that the
estimated damage cost was about PhP 620 million plus other
non-quantified damages. Apart from physical impacts, the
disasters also brought significant perceived impacts on the
households’ welfare. Comparison of pre-disaster and post-
disaster changes in impact indicators showed that climate-
induced disaster decreased the households’ access to land
for crop cultivation as well as to coastal and fishery resources,
hence affecting their socio-economic conditions and livelihood
systems. The disaster also significantly decreased the overall
state of natural resources and the environment.

Decline in agricultural production: The sharpest fall in gross value added Amadore (2005) A United States Environmental Protection Agency Modeling Project Escaño and Buendia
reduced yields (GVA) and in volume of production are predicted that an increase in temperature of +2°C (at 330 ppm CO2 (1994)
notably on the four major crops—rice, concentration) would reduce rice yield by 22% in the Philippines.
maize, sugarcane, and coconut. The
losses were most severe in the El Niño Using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model of a doubling of Centeno (1995)
years of 1982 to 1983 and in 1997 to CO2, a yield decrease of 14% is predicted due to a higher increase in
1998. The decline of GVA was noted temperature, which reduces spikelet fertility and consequently reduces
between 1975 and 2002. Tropical yields.
cyclones in the country caused damage
to agriculture amounting to PhP 3 billion The effects of climate change on yields of rice and corn in selected Lansigan and
(or around US$55 million). areas in the Philippines were simulated under 10 climate change Salvacion (2007)
scenarios in three selected provinces, namely: Ilagan, Isabela; Los
Baños, Laguna; and Malaybalay, Bukidnon. Yield simulation was
done using two CERES (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis)
models, namely, CERES-Rice and CERES-Maize. Simulation results
showed that rice and corn yields tended to decrease. Under potential
climate change, corn performed better than rice. This was exhibited
by the smaller percentage change in corn yield. Corn yield variations,
measured in terms of the coefficient of variation (cv), were also smaller
than those of rice yields within and between locations.
The rise in sea level contributed to Perez (2008)

the loss of arable lands in low-lying
coastal areas of the Philippines. It
has intensified saltwater intrusion in
groundwater resources in the northern
part of Luzon, which is predominantly
an agricultural region.
23
24

Destruction of Forest Areas In the Philippines, the highest recorded Glantz (2001);
forest fire damage occurred during the PAGASA (2001)
El Niño years of 1983, 1992, and 1998
when fire destroyed from 50,000 to
65,000 ha of forests. Thousands of ha
of secondary growth and over-logged
forests were also burned during the
1997–1998 ENSO events.
Endemic trees like the Philippine teak ADB (2009)

(Tectona philippinensis) have been
threatened by increasing temperatures
and shifting precipitation patterns.
Effects on Coastal and Marine Massive coral bleaching in various ADB(2009) A projected 30-cm rise in sea level in the Philippines by 2045, under ADB (2009) citing
Areas reefs has been caused by elevated sea citing B2-mid and A1-mid scenarios, is seen to affect 2,000 ha and about Hulme and Sheard
temperatures during the severe 1997– Amadore 500,000 people. An A2-high scenario, which shows a 100-cm rise (1999)
1998 ENSO episode. Coral bleaching (2005a); in sea level by 2080, will inundate over 5,000 ha of the Manila Bay
has been reported in the Masinloc Arceo et al. coastal area and will affect over 2.5 million people. These risks will
Fish Sanctuary (Zambales Province, (2001) be further intensified if sea surges associated with intense storm
Northern Luzon), where almost 70% activity increase. A1-mid and A2-high scenarios for 2080 indicate an
of the corals have been bleached. increase in typhoon intensities in the Western Pacific by 5% and 10%,
Bleaching has also occurred in some respectively. More intense typhoon activities will also pose threats to
parts of Luan, Megalawa Island, and inland areas where frequent mudslides are triggered by torrential rains
Oyon Bay. More than 20% of the corals associated with typhoons.
in the Tubbataha Reef in the center of
Sulu Sea have been bleached, causing
dramatic impact on the fish ecosystem.

Coastal erosion has been observed in ADB (2009) It is likely that the waters of the Sulu Sea in the Philippines will ADB (2009) citing
key cities and areas in the Philippines, continue to warm in the future. For the region around the Tubbataha Hulme and Sheard
including Cebu and La Union. This Reef, mean annual sea surface temperatures for B1-low and A2-high (1999).
was confirmed by the University of scenarios will increase by 1.5° and 3.5°C in 2100, respectively. Coral
the Philippines National Institute of reef ecosystems will be threatened by increasing levels of atmospheric
Geological Sciences-Marine Geology CO2, which is projected to increase by 2 ppm (B1-low) and by 4 ppm
Laboratory in a study that showed that volume per year (A2-high).
sea level rise contributes to coastal
erosion.
Vulnerability analysis showed that most areas along the coast of Manila Perez et al. (1999)
Bay — specifically Cavite City, Noveleta, Kawit, Imus and Bacoor in the
province of Cavite; some parts of Las Pinas and Parañaque; Malabon,
Navotas in Metro Manila; and parts of Bulacan such as Hagonoy and
Malolos — could succumb to a 1-m sea level rise by 2100. Even inland
areas would be affected, especially near riverbanks, when sea level
rise reaches 2 m.
25
Photo by Sourav Karmakar

Human Responses to Climate Change and its Impacts
Mitigation
Reports of the IPCC have shown that enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the major
anthropogenic causes of climate change. Thus, the straightforward response to forestall climate
change is to reduce the production of GHGs. However, the need for mitigation and the role of the
country in mitigation efforts has to be seen in the context of the latter’s contribution to the global
production of GHGs
In 1994, the Philippines came up with its first Greenhouse Gas Accounting through the US Country
Study Program to address the problem of climate change (Government of the Philippines, 1999).
This study reported emissions in 1990, which were updated with the 1994 data for the National
GHG Inventory included in the Initial National Communication (Government of the Philippines, 1999)
that was submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
According to UNFCCC regulations, non-Annex I countries were required to report their 1994 National
GHG Inventory. As of this writing, an updated GHG inventory has been completed for the forthcoming
National Communication of the Philippines. However, these results have not yet been published,
hence were not available for this report.
The breakdown of the 1994 GHG emissions is shown in Table 3. The bulk of emissions (49.7%)
came from power generation, transportation, and manufacturing. The Energy Sector Projections
cited in Merillo (2001) also suggest that these sectors would also have a 145% increase in projected
emissions by 2008. The agriculture sector was the second largest source of emissions (32.9%).
Emissions in this sector were mainly from methane gas (CH4) which is a by-product of rice paddy
cultivation (64% of total GHG emissions from the agriculture sector). In particular, CH4 emission
came from anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in the aquatic environment of the rice paddies.
Alarmingly, methane emission from rice cultivation was projected to have increased by 51% in 2008.
The land use change in the forestry (LUCF) sector had a negative net contribution because of offsets
brought by increased forest biomass. The projected increase in the LUCF sector, however, is the
largest among the five sectors. This large increase is associated with increased deforestation by
2008.
Table 3 shows that the Philippines has been a minor source of global GHGs emissions. Therefore,
we do not expect the Philippines to be a major driver in global mitigation efforts. However, the country
can exploit opportunities in global mitigation policies, efforts, and funding to achieve developmental
goals such as poverty alleviation while contributing to mitigation efforts. One such window is the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
Most of the current CDM contracts in the country are in the transportation and energy sectors. The
Banggi Wind Farm in Ilocos Norte was the first successful CDM engagement in the country. Several
projects undergoing the long and tedious approval process are mostly energy- and transportation-
Table 3. Philippine GHG emissions in 1994
Total CO2
Projected 2008
Equivalent
Sector % of Total CO2 Equivalent % of Total % Change
Emissions (ktons),
Emissions (ktons)
1994
Energy 50,038 49.7 122,344 70.4 145

Industry 10,603 10.5 20,500 11.8 93.3
Agriculture 33,130 32.9 20,177 11.6 -39.1
Wastes 7,094 7.0 6,173 3.6 -13.0
Land Use Change in
-126 4,492 2.6
Forestry (LUCF)
TOTAL 100,738 173,686
Source: Summarized from Merilo (2001)

Notes:
1. Figures may not add up because of rounding off
2. Projected emissions from agriculture are only for the rice sector.
related, while CDM projects in AFNR sectors are at present limited to methane avoidance in animal
waste treatment (biogas technology). Collectively, however, the AFNR sectors have a much larger
potential to be a source of carbon credits. What is needed in the first place are assessments of the
emission reduction/ carbon sequestration potentials of the different AFNR sectors.
The following sections discuss activities to provide information on the emission reduction/ carbon
sequestration potentials of the AFNR sectors. These serve as benchmark information to initiate
active participation in CDM and other mitigation window opportunities.
Forestry sector
The bulk of the studies in the AFNR sector, show the carbon sequestration potential in the forestry
sector. Lasco and Pulhin (2003) reviewed over a dozen studies between 1981 and 2001. Although
there were two earlier studies in 1981 and 1994, most of the studies emerged between 1999 and
2001 amd focused on Mt. Makiling. They covered several types of forest ecosystems, namely: a)
protection forests, b) secondary forests, c) brushlands, c) tree plantations, d) grasslands, and e)
agroforestry.
The review revealed that carbon stock (amount of carbon “trapped” inside the forest ecosystem)
ranges from 5 t/ha to 200 t/ha. Stocked gasses can be found in old growth forests with the lowest
amounts in grasslands. Carbon sequestration, on the other hand, ranges from 1 t/ha per year (natural
forests) to 15 t/ha per year (tree plantations). In the process of the review, the authors claim that
“.... there are still limited data on carbon sequestration compared to carbon stocks. This is because
carbon stocks can be easily calculated using alleometric equations (mainly from Brown, 1997), but in
contrast, biomass change and carbon sequestration requires long-term monitoring.” This statement
reveals a gap in the set of information needed to conduct accurate carbon studies that would be
useful in the development of CDM projects in the forestry sector.
Using revised IPCC guidelines, the authors calculated the net carbon absorption (carbon emission
less carbon sequestration) from land use change and forestry (LUCF) from 1997 to 1998. Their
calculations show that the “total LUCF sector sequestration is almost equal to the total net GHG
emission of the Philippines from all sources (101 mt in 1994). This reveals the importance of
Philippine forests in climate change mitigation because they absorb practically all the fossil fuel
emissions of the country.”
Most of the studies reviewed usually entailed simulation of the increase and change in biomass of
forest trees. Many were actually driven by the alleometric equation used in the analysis as clearly
shown in Lasco et al. (2005). The latter conducted a study on the carbon stocks of the Pantabangan-
Carranglan Watershed using field and laboratory techniques to measure carbon stocks from above-
ground biomass, necromass, and the soil. On the other hand, total carbon budgets over time of
natural forest ecosystem were simulated using the CO2-Fix Model. The results showed that total
above-ground carbon stock of the whole watershed ranged from 4,800 to 8,900 MgC, depending on
the biomass alleometric equation used. They further noted that Brown’s alleometric equation gave
about 50% higher biomass estimate than the Power fit alleometric equation. They attributed this
large difference in biomass values to Brown’s equation being calibrated to site conditions and tree
species that may be entirely different from that in the local study area.
Likewise, these studies largely aimed to characterize the carbon stock and sequestration potential
of various forest ecosystems and types of forest cover or vegetation. The carbon sequestration and
stock potentials of different forest management options were only implicitly discussed or casually
mentioned. Lasco and Pulhin (2001), however, attempted to extend the genre of forest carbon
stock studies by looking at the carbon stock potential of five forestry management options, namely:
a) afforestation (short and long plantations), b) agroforestry, c) reforestation and regeneration, d)
protection/conservation, and e) bioenergy. The results, however, are quite confusing1. Nevertheless,
the authors claim that “of the mitigation options assessed, long rotation plantations and forest
protection activities produce the greatest C gain (199 and 104 ×106 Mg, respectively under high
scenario. The net present value (NPV) of benefits is highest in the bioenergy option with $24.48 per
Mg C (excluding opportunity costs) at a real discount rate of 12%. However, the investment and life
cycle costs are also highest using bioenergy.”
A clearer picture of the cost of one forest management option can be found in Lasco et al. (2002).
In this study the authors estimated the cost of a unit of CO2 stored and sequestered in a year by the
vegetation around eight geothermal plants in the Leyte Geothermal Reservation. They found that a
1
The study measured the NPV of benefits, but we suspect that the authors are referring to the PV of Carbon
Benefits. Computation and comparison of PV of costs are also not possible because benefits and costs were
measured using different units.
unit of CO2 stored and sequestered in one year will cost around PhP 1.22 per t of CO2 (PhP 4.46 per
tC). They further calculated that under the assumption of similar maintenance cost, it will cost PhP
30.40 to keep a ton of CO2 for 25 years (PhP 111.58 or US$ 2.94 per tC). This value is consistent with
the cost of C offset projects in other tropical countries, estimated to be US$ 2–4 per tC.
Sheeran (2006) extended the evaluation of the costs of forest management practices that expand,
restore, or protect forest areas for climate purposes. Her study estimated costs that were based
on opportunity costs from forgone logging and included losses from non-market activities such as
subsistence agriculture. Earlier calculations excluded these opportunity costs, hence underestimating
the social costs of these forestry options for climate change mitigation. These opportunity costs turned
out to be significant. For subsistence agriculture, the forgone income (in present value terms) from
preserving a hectare of forest was between US$ 886 and US$ 3,116. The total losses from foregone
logging ranged from US$ 33,205 per ha to US$ 39,897 per ha. What is more interesting is that for
developed countries like the U.S., it may be more cost-effective to pay the opportunity costs of forest
conservation in the Philippines than to reduce emissions within their own borders. This supports the
claim that a CDM agreement between the U.S. and the Philippines is a win-win situation.
Sometimes, forest protection projects may lead to perverse results. For instance, forestry-based
mitigation programs can lead to reductions in net potential sequestration instead of achieving
increased carbon mitigation. Perverse results are called leakages. Leakages can happen, for
instance, if a forest protection project leads to the cutting of trees in an adjacent forest resulting in
minimal net carbon sequestration.
Lasco et al. (2007) estimated the potential leakage from a carbon sequestration project in the Upper
Magat Watershed using historical experience on technology adoption in community forestry projects
in the Philippines. The sources of leakage identified: a) clearing of adjacent forests by people whose
livelihood depended on the preserved forest, and b) activity shifting by farmers on developed land.
The simulations showed that carbon lost via leakage amounted to 3.7 million tC and 8.1 million tC in
the baseline and project scenarios, respectively. Shifting to resource-degrading livelihood because
of conservation efforts showed a loss of between 3% to 42% of potential sequestration. Hence, it is
imperative to craft CDM contracts that would prevent losses from leakages.
Agriculture Sector
Unlike the comprehensive studies in the forestry sector, the scope of studies on the options for
mitigation and CDM in agriculture in the Philippines is limited to specific land use types. Studies that
provide information on the mitigation potential in agriculture are mostly from research on rice and
methane production. There are also studies on carbon sequestration potential in soil for grassland
ecosystems, which are often classified as part of forest ecosystems.
Matthews and Wassmann (2003) reviewed a decade of study done by scientists at International Rice
Research Institute (IRRI) on climate change and rice and methane production. Part of the review
dealt with mitigation options through crop management scenarios. The scenarios: a) ‘baseline’
scenario assuming no addition of organic amendments or field drainage during the growing season;
(b) addition of 3,000 kg dry matter (DM) ha-1 of green manure at the start of the season but no field
drainage; (c) no organic amendments but drainage of the field for a 14-day period in the middle of the
season and again at the end of the season; and (d) addition of 3,000 kg DM ha-1 of green manure and
field drainages in the middle and end of the season. Their simulations showed that option (c) resulted
in the largest decline in emissions ranging from 10% to 39% of the baseline scenario. Amendments
of organic manure tended to increase the production of methane by a large amount.
Soil, which is an integral component in agriculture, also contributes to the sequestration of carbon.
Pulhin (2008) studied the carbon content of the grassland and soil in 11 sites of the Ikalahan Ancestral
Domain in Nueva Vizcaya. Soil carbon density ranged from 35.36 Mg/ha to 47.22 Mg/ha. This was
relatively lower than earlier measurements in Leyte and Tanay, Rizal. Soil carbon density values of
the grasslands in Leyte (Lasco et al., 2002) and Kaliwa Watershed (Lasco et al., 2007b) were 52.70
Mg/ha and 55 Mg/ha, respectively. The findings of Pulhin (2008) supported the results of Lasco et al.
(2007b) that soil is a major sink of carbon. Soil plays an important role in the mitigation effort because
it absorbs carbon and holds it for longer periods than vegetation.
Enhancing the role of soil in carbon sequestration, however, requires some supportive actions. Among
these are: 1) reforesting to reduce erosion; 2) maintaining or improving soil fertility; 3) concentrating
on tropical agriculture and reducing shifting agriculture; 4) removing marginal lands from agricultural
production; and 5) retaining forest litter and debris after silvicultural or logging activities (Pulhin, 2008
citing Dixon et al., 1993).
Fisheries and marine ecosystems
Studies on the carbon potential of the fisheries and marine ecosystems are focused mainly on
mangrove ecosystems. There have been no studies on the carbon sequestration potential of other
ecosystems such as coral reefs, inland fisheries, and marine fisheries. Neither have there been
studies on the mitigation potentials of these ecosystems.
Some of the mangrove carbon sequestration studies were by Gevaña and Pampolina (2009). They
studied Rhizophora stands of mangroves in San Juan, Batangas and noted that despite the low
species diversity, the estimated total carbon stored in this ecosystem was around 115.45 t ha-1.
On the other hand, Gevana et al. (2008) estimated the mean total carbon density of Avicennia-
dominated stands in the same area at 141.71 Mg/ha.
Adaptation
Although there are mitigation efforts, the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC concludes that
reduction of GHG emissions, even stabilization of their concentration in the atmosphere at a low
level, will not prevent climate change and its impacts (IPCC, 2007). Thus, some form of defensive or
adaptive action must complement mitigation or preventive measures against climate change.
The IPCC (2007) defines adaptation as “Adjustments in ecological, social or economic systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects and impacts (and) to changes in
processes, practices and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities
associated with climate change.” Adaptive behavior in the literature can be categorized either based
on who initiates the adaptive action and when the action is done. The initiator of adaptation can
be classified further as either autonomous or planned adaptation. Adaptation that comes from
autonomous private actions in reaction to actual or expected climate change even without policy
interventions is called “autonomous” adaptation (ADB, 2009). The majority of adaptive behavior fall
into this category. In contrast, some adaptation programs or actions are products of deliberate and
calculated policy decisions. These types of programs are categorized as “planned” adaptation.
On the other hand, timing of adaptive behavior, can be classified as “reactive” or “proactive” whether
this is autonomous or planned. Reactive adaptation is usually action done in response to actual
climate change either during or after a climate-related event Proactive adaptation, on the other hand,
is done in anticipation of a climate- related event.
Categorizing recommended adaptation options
Sevral studies have been done in identifying potential adaptation actions and policies for the various
AFNR sectors. For instance, the comprehensive study done by the ADB (2009) outlines various
policies and programs that can enhance adaptive capacity in Southeast Asia. This study has identified
programs and policies for each sector for all five Southeast Asian countries. Scoping studies focused
on the Philippines are likewise comprehensive. The Resources, Environment and Economics Center
for Studies, Inc. (REECS, 2010), for instance, conducted a National Environmental and Development
Study (NEEDS) for climate change. The detailed report discusses existing knowledge as well as
gaps in the knowledge of both mitigation and adaptation policies in the country.
There are also some studies in the Philippines on sector- and site-specific adaptation options,
instead of a countrywide perspective. For example, Boquiren et al. (2010) recommended a variety
of programs, such as the establishment of Marine Protected Areas, regulation of activities such as
artificial reef development, channel dredging, etc. under a comprehensive Integrated Coastal Zone
Management (ICZM) for the Verde Island passage. Capili et al. (2005) in a study for Manila Bay
recommended a similar approach to enhancing adaptive capacity of various stakeholders.
In an even earlier research, Perez et al. (1999) studied the Manila Bay coastal area for the possible
consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change and assessed adaptive
responses to such threats. Results showed that areas along the coast if inundated by a 1-m sea level
rise would include coastal barangays from 19 municipalities of Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Cavite
and would cover an area of 5555 ha. Proposed response strategies consisted of protecting the coast
by building sea walls; institutional actions such as formulating setback policies and construction
regulations; and adaptive planning in the context of an integrated coastal zone management to
address the short- and long-term problems, with the involvement of communities in the area.
Information and education campaigns (IEC) are essential along with technical and scientific efforts
to achieve a well-balanced adaptation plan.
Boquiren et al. (2010) identified site-specific livelihood activities that could increase the resilience of
coastal communities in the Verde Island area. They espoused a Sustainable Livelihood Approach
through diversification as a means of increasing the adaptive capacity of coastal communities. This
includes shifting away from resource-degrading livelihood, such as pebble picking, to reduce coastal
erosion and to derive revenues from sustainable practices. The study highlights the importance of
employing site-specific adaptation measures and ground truthing.
On the other hand, Hilario (2008) outlined adaptation options specific to the agriculture sector. These
options ranged from redesigning cropping systems (on the ground) to improving institutional and
research support (especially those that would create a favorable policy environment) to focus more
on responding to changing climate.
Jose et al. (1999) looked into increasing adaptive capacity in water resources for two major
reservoirs, Angat and Lake Lanao. They recommended improving water conservation to enhance
the water supply and curb excessive demand for water.
Some studies identified close relationships between adaptation policies across sectors. Lasco et
al. (2006) looked into adaptation options for several terrestrial sectors, namely: forest, agriculture,
and water resources around the Pantabangan-Caranglan watershed. The local stakeholders during
consultation workshops, focus group discussions, and surveys. This study is unique because
recommendations came directly from the stakeholders. Another interesting facet of the study is
that after looking at the recommended options, authors noted and emphasized that the sectoral
adaptation options could pose some interesting trade-offs and that some measures would be
beneficial to some sector but not to others. Hence, they recommended prioritizing adaptation options
that minimized trade-offs between sectors.
Some of the prevailing recommendations in the literature are shown in Table 4. Although studies
may vary in their recommended adaptation strategies, common themes cut across sectors and
sites. We attempt to broadly categorize the recommended adaptation policies and programs into
the following:
1. Sustainable development, natural resource conservation, and management policies.

Recommendations such as the implementation of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management
(ICZM), agroforestry and reforestation, mangrove conservation, and the like fall under this
category. Notice that these policies have been recommended as responses to natural resource
degradation long before the climate change issue became popular. Briones et al. (2010) identified
and discussed several literature studies that gave examples of such policies.
2. Economic policies. A policy recommendation under this category is the removal of subsidies,
reform of water pricing, and provision of insurance. These adaptation policies are related to the
correct pricing of natural resources and insurance and these have been recommended before to
correct market failures.
36
Table 4. Recommended adaptation options for the different AFNR sectors
Reactive/Responsive Proactive/Anticipatory
Water Resources • Protection of groundwater resources • Better use of recycled water

• Improved management and maintenance of existing water • Conservation of water catchment areas
supply systems • Improved system of water management
• Protection of water catchment areas • Water policy reform including pricing and irrigation policies
• Improved water supply • Development of flood controls and drought monitoring
• Groundwater and rainwater harvesting and desalination
Agriculture • Erosion control • Development of tolerant/resistant cultivars (to flood, drought, and salinity and heat
• Dam construction for irrigation stresses)
• Changes in fertilizer use and application • Investment on research and development programs/projects
• Introduction of new crops • Adoption of soil and water technologies and sustainable management approaches
• Soil fertility maintenance • Diversification and intensification of food and plantation crops
• Changes in planting and harvesting times • Policy measures, tax incentives/subsidies, free market
• Switching to improved cultivars with high resilience to flood, • Development of early warning systems
drought, salinity and heat stress
• Educational and outreach programs on conservation and
management of soil and water
Forestry • Improvement of management systems including control of • Creation of parks/reserves, protected areas and biodiversity corridors
deforestation, reforestation, and afforestation • Identification/development of species resistant to climate change
• Promotion of agroforestry to improve forest goods and • Better assessment of the vulnerability of ecosystems
services • Monitoring of species
• Development/improvement of national forest fire • Development and maintenance of seed banks
management plans • Forest fire early warning systems
• Improvement of carbon storage in forests
Table 4. Recommended adaptation options... (continued)
Reactive/Responsive Proactive/Anticipatory
Coastal and Marine • Protection of economic infrastructure • Research and monitoring of coasts and coastal ecosystems
Resources • Public awareness to enhance protection of coastal and • Formulation of ICZM guidelines and legislation (including land use planning in coastal
marine ecosystems zones)
• Implementation of structural measures (e.g., building dikes, • Inclusion of coastal wetlands, swamps, and marshes in the National Integrated
seawalls and other engineering options, observational Protected Areas System and enhanced efforts in classifying wildlife sanctuary and
infrastructure) and nonstructural measures (i.e., policies on unique ecosystems
natural resource conservation, environmental management, • Strict implementation of mining laws and reforestation of denuded watersheds to
land use policies and building codes) reduce river and coastal erosion
• Protection and conservation of coral reefs, mangroves, sea • Incorporation of geological, hydrometeorological, and structural engineering evaluation
grass, and littoral vegetation, and massive reforestation of in the environmental impact assessment prior to coastal development
degraded mangrove systems through a community-based • Assessment of current practices on crisis management and promotion of awareness
approach, formulation of additional policies and regulations on climate change and variability among policy makers for the creation of coastal
or amending existing policies on sustainable mangrove sectoral policies
management • Development of multi-hazard mitigation or protection plans for natural coastal hazards
with priority on the maximum reduction of threat to life, structures, and economic
production
• Discouragement of government subsidies or tax incentives to support the development
of land sensitive to sea-level rise, such as barrier islands, coastal wetlands, estuarine
shorelines, and critical wildlife habitats
• Encouragement of insurance and banking industries to factor risks of climatic
variability into investment decisions
• Complementation of environmental management with disaster management at the
community level.
37
3. Public investment in infrastructure. This involves government expenditure on infrastructure like

dikes, Small Water Impoundments (SWIP), and seawalls. These are related to engineering
solutions to increase adaptive capacity.
4. Production of knowledge and information. Adaptive policies under this category include research
and development of new cultivars, information and educational campaign on conservation and
protection, and development of early warning systems. In general, these policies aim to make
use of new information and technology to address and prevent the negative impacts of climate
change.
Autonomous adaptation
Autonomous adaptation denotes “adaptation that does not constitute a conscious response to
climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare
changes in human systems” (IPCC, 2007).
In the Philippine setting, autonomous adaptation has been practiced since time immemorial both
at the household and LGU levels. For instance, Tibig (2003) described the indigenous peoples’
coping and adaptation strategies to climate variability long before the interest in climate change.
Emerging studies focus on households’ choice, which is not surprising, because most of adaptation
measures are decided upon at the household level. Understanding how ineffective these households’
adaptation behavior is can help in crafting complementary programs that will strengthen their adaptive
capacities. Some interesting results from studies on household adaptation behavior are as follows:
1. There is a disparity between recommended and actual adaptation.
Huigen and Jens (2006) reported on the socioeconomic effects and coping mechanisms of farm
households affected by super typhoon Imbudo in San Mariano, Isabela,Philippines. They found that
farming households in some areas unexpectedly did not change their agricultural strategies and
continued with ‘‘business as usual’’ (78%). They also did not adopt a more typhoon-resistant crop
(e.g., watermelon or sweet potatos) despite significant crop losses ranging of 64% (yellow corn),
24% (banana), and 27% (rice). Similarly, they did not practice the recommended crop diversification
strategy but continued planting the crops they used before the typhoon.
In terms of infrastructural responses, Peñalba and Elazegui (2010) assessed how the adaptive
capacity of LGUs, community organizations (COs), and households in the province of Batangas
translated into adaptation behavior in response to Typhoon Milenyo (international name Xangsane)
in September 2006. The households employed mainly “soft” structures such as reinforcing their
houses and properties. Their behavioral responses included securing food, water, and other
necessities including boats and livestock. Similarly, there were significant gaps between actual and
recommended practices and serious misconceptions held by local government institutions. Hence,
the researchers recommended improving the adaptation behavior among groups.
Predo (2010) observed a similar behavior in terms of infrastructure. He studied the flash flood in
Ormoc and the flooding event in coastal areas along Cabalian Bay in Southern Leyte resulting
from storm surge/sea level rise. He found that the respondents preferred adaptation options at the
household level rather than at the community level. Adaptations at the community level required
cooperation that is needed in broader strategies or major defensive engineering works. This finding
indicated that some households lacked confidence in cooperative solutions, or they would just
depend on LGUs for defensive strategies and actions.
Acosta-Michlik and Espaldon (2008) applied an agent-based framework that considered a behavioral
model of farmers in three villages in Tanauan City, one of the LGUs of Batangas Province. They
attributed the deficiencies in applying available technical adaptation measures or the disparity
between recommended and actual adaptation to lack of money and information, particularly among
subsistence farmers. They also found that cognitive failure was a reality in explaining adaptive
behavior.
Predo (2010) also found cognitive failure as a factor in explaining choice (or lack thereof) of adaptation
strategies. His interesting observation was that the choice of temporary solutions seemed to be
based on the household’s perception that the impacts of sea level rise were only short-lived and
that life would return to normal thereafter. This suggests that in reality, the households did not fully
understand that sea level rise is a permanent or irreversible process. Hence, he recommends that
“a more effective proactive planning approach involving the affected households and the community
is necessary to improve their understanding of the situation and to enable them to make informed
decisions.”
On the other hand, Huigen and Jens (2006) asserted that the lack of adaptation can be traced to
the cultural and societal structure of farm households and their traders. These social and economic
relationships especially with traders prevent households from adapting their cultivation practices to
climate change.
2. Household heterogeneity matters and adaptation behavior is a product of constrained

choice.
Different income and occupational groups apply different adaptation strategies. As gleaned in the
previous section, households choose within an environment of financial and informational constraints.
For instance, Predo et al. (2010), who studied adaptation and coping strategies to climate-induced
disasters, found that households with higher educational attainment, annual income, and bigger
landholdings were less vulnerable to climatic risk and threats.
Similarly, Acosta-Michlik and Espaldon (2008) found that commercial farmers in Tanauan City
showed the highest rate of adoption in all considered adaptation measures and traditional farmers
the lowest. Also, very few traditional farmers changed their production activities and consumption
habits. These results showed the variability in adaptation strategies and vulnerabilities as a function
of wealth (i.e., commercial or wealthy farmers vs. traditional farmers)
Variability in vulnerability is seen not only in adaptation strategies but also in available means of
recovering after a disaster. Sales (2008) showed that the degree of impacts and vulnerability of
socio-economic groups to climate variability and extremes (CVEs) and sea-level rise (SLR) varied
disproportionately among them. The better-off families had better coping mechanisms, thus a
comparatively low level of vulnerability than the other socio-economic groups. On the other hand,
small fishers and shellfish gatherers who bore the highest impact with more damage to livelihood and
assets, had poor coping mechanisms, hence a higher level of vulnerability. The micro-entrepreneurs
and employed coastal residents experienced relatively lesser damage to livelihood and property,
hence they had a moderate level of vulnerability. Sales also found a gender angle. Among the most
vulnerable groups are women who aside from performing child rearing and housekeeping activities
had to undertake other activities such as selling their husbands’ fish catch.
According to Peras (2005), strong typhoons, droughts, and delayed onset of the rainy season had
harmful impacts to many farmers. Impacts vary among different socio-economic groups with the poor
farmers being the most adversely affected and more vulnerable. As confirmed by several studies,
adaptive practices and their effectiveness vary across socio-economic groups and geographical
locations. In general, while various local adaptation practices exist, they are either limited or
ineffective to minimize adverse impacts, especially among the poorer households.
3. Households tend to cope with -- rather than adapt -- to extreme weather
There is a reliance on credit from social networks after a typhoon. Acosta-Michlick and Espaldon
(2008) found that social networks were important sources of adaptive capacity. The networks of
all types of farmers in Tanauan City, for instance, comprised relatives and neighbors whom they
regarded as providers of informal credit. Cooperatives, extension officers, and local officials, who
were potential sources of technical knowledge on adaptation, had only a minimum role in the farmers’
social networks. Only 25% of the farmers sought assistance from government officials (e.g., village
and municipal officials). None sought help from the government through agriculture officers. It is
expected that improving the social interaction of farmers with extension workers and local officials
will help reduce the farmers’ vulnerability to climate change.
The above finding is corroborated by Predo (2010) who found that the most important coping
mechanisms in times of flash floods and sea surges after a storm are the use of family savings,
grants received/requested, and loans from friends. He concluded that the provision of immediate
financial assistance to households and the community in disaster-prone areas would enhance their
coping capacity in the short term.
4. Household maladaptation can have social (and economic) consequences.
Households also adapt in ways that lead to detrimental social consequences. For instance, Huigen
and Jens (2006) found that after super typhoon Imbudo in San Mariano, Isabela, more than half
(53%) of the households adjusted by minimizing their meat intake and relying on less preferred and
less expensive foods. Furthermore, 32% of the families with schoolchildren reduced the money spent
on the education of their children. This is supported by Isorena (1990) who found that the survival
strategies of upland farmers to environmental disturbances (notably typhoons) in Solong, San

Miguel, Catanduanes resulted to functional and dysfunctional consequences. These included (a)
illness, (b) undernourishment, (c) absenteeism and dropping out from school, (d) depletion of rattan
and other forest products, (e) return of migrants to their place of origin, and (f) family abandonment
and disorganization.
Photo by Armin Hari

Trends in the Literature
Historical Perspective on Climate Change Literature in the Philippines
Figure 2 shows the genre and themes of climate change studies from 1985 to 2010. It also shows
key global and local developments related to climate change. As early as 1985, the global community
was already airing concerns over the effects of human activity on the earth’s climate. Even though
the Philippines seems to have caught up a bit later, it was still among the first to have a local agency
that dealt solely with policy making on climate change.
The genre of the studies seems to track global developments. The earliest research on climate
change in the country focused on providing scientific evidence for the existence of the climate
change phenomenon and its impacts. Researches likewise included adaptation options in selected
resource systems - coastal, water, and agricultural resources specifically for rice cultivation. These
early studies were spearheaded mostly by climate scientists from PAG-ASA. Offshoot studies looked
at physical vulnerability, i.e. hazard/risk identification for various resource systems.
Impact and adaptation options continued to the early to mid-2000, and included other resource
systems. There was also an emerging genre on the carbon sequestration studies for the forestry
sector. This was perhaps triggered by the international concern for mitigation activities and the
development of avenues (such as the CDM) for developing countries to participate in mitigation
measures.
Late in 2000 the direction of local researches changed. While impacts of climate change and
adaptation options were still discussed, the concept of vulnerability was modified. In addition to
physical/biological vulnerabilities, the concept of economic vulnerability was recognized. Economic
vulnerability is the interaction between physical/biological vulnerability and adaptive capacity
of households and institutions. This concept emerged because of the interest in the adaptation
behaviors of households and communities. This also highlights the realization that some sectors are
more vulnerable than others although they face common climate threats or hazards.
Methodologies Used
The literature followed some common methodologies that were basically of three types: a)
simulations, b) qualitative (expository), and c) quantitative (use of equations). Although simulation
models are also quantitative methods, they were treated as a distinct methodology because of their
preponderance in the literature.
Simulations were used as early as in the 1990s, and they are still being used widely as a tool to
analyze and project the impacts of climate change. They were first used to assess the likely changes
in key climate variables such as temperature and rainfall. The basic simulation involved the use of
46
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
World Climate IPCC established 2nd World UNFCC Kyoto Buenos Aires Kyoto Protocol Ball Conference
Conference & World (1988) Climate Conference established Protocol Program of Work ordered into force (2007)
Climate Program (1990) (1992) (1997) on Adaptation & (2005) Launch of
(Feb. 1979) Response Measures Adaptation Funds
(2004) (2007)
GLOBAL
IPCC 1st AR IPCC 2nd AR IPCC 3rd AR IPCC 4th AR
(1990) (1995) (2001) (2007)
IACC established Clean Air Act Phil Govt signs Kyoto Biofuels Act
(1999) Protocol (2006)
(1991)
(2003)
1st Phil National Presidential Task
Phil Networks on Communication DENR designated as Force on CC
CC (1992) (1999) NA for CDM (2007)
(2004)
LOCAL
Phil signs UNFCC Renewable
Energy Bill
Phil GHG Inventory (2008)
(1994)
CC and Rice Impacts of CC and Adaptation ADB, Economics

(IRRI Studies, 1996) Options [Agriculture (Rice), of CC in SEA,
Watersheds] 2008
Impacts of CC and Adaptation
Options [Water Resources, Carbon Sequestration Studies in Forestry Economic
Coastal] Ecsystems Vulnerability,
(PAGASA Authors, 1999) Autonomous
Behavior Studies
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Figure 2. A historical account of global and local events in climate policy and literature
the IPCC story lines2 (A1 and B1 story lines) as future climate scenarios. These scenarios were then
combined with GCMs to project the likely trends in key climate variables. Currently, researchers
are still using the IPCC story lines but are using better climate models that are often coupled with
downscaling tools such as PRECIS. The problem with the stand-alone GCM models is that the
results are suitable for predicting global changes but fail to provide fine-tuned information relevant
for local-level planning.
Another form of simulation combined biophysical models, e.g., for simulating crop production, with
the climate models and the IPCC story lines. This was the dominant methodology used to analyze
the future impact of climate change on rice and corn production. In these simulations, the resulting
trends in climate variables from climate scenarios were fed into crop production models such as
CERES for corn and ORYZA for rice.
Other studies, mostly expository and descriptive in nature, used qualitative methods. Studies on the
observed impacts of climate change used descriptive analysis heavily. Recent studies on adaptive
behavior also used descriptive discussions together with simple frequency counts to analyze adaptive
behavior.
In contrast, only a few studies in the Philippines have used quantitative methods. Carbon sequestration
studies frequently used alleometric equations to predict tree growth and correlate this with the extent
of carbon sequestration. Very few have used econometric techniques. These techniques emerged
only lately in the analysis of factors affecting the choice of adaptation options. Use of benefit-cost
analysis is limited in analyzing adaptation options.
2
See Appendix for the description of these story lines.
Conclusion, Research Gaps, and Future Direction of Climate

Change Research in the Philippines
Ingredients of a Relevant Climate Change Research Program
At present, there are two recurring themes in the climate change literature: downscaling and
mainstreaming. Downscaling has been a byword especially in simulation-based studies that have
used GCMs. Milestone studies in climate change would include the four IPCC Assessment Reports,
the IFPRI study on climate change and its impact on agriculture and adaptation costs, and the World
Bank study on the economics of adaptation to climate change. Like the results of the GCM, these
studies have been global or regional in nature. Though they may be useful in outlining possible
policies, they may not provide information relevant for local level planning in addressing climate
change. This is important since action against the adverse effects of climate change will most likely
be discernible at the local level.
Mainstreaming, on the other hand, is the “integration of policies and measures that address climate
change into development planning and ongoing sectoral decision-making so as to ensure the long-
term sustainability of investments as well as to reduce the sensitivity of development activities to
both today’s and tomorrow’s climate“ (Lasco et al., 2009 citing several authors). It simply means that
climate change policy should be introduced as part of a larger sustainable development policy and
not in a segregated manner.
Combining these two concepts, we can generate studies relevant to policy making. Relevant
researches are downscaled studies that help in mainstreaming climate change mitigation and
adaptation into larger sustainable development frameworks. A systematic Climate Change Research
Program with the aim of mainstreaming initiatives should complete the following set of studies:
vulnerability assessment (physical and economic), hazard/impact mapping, assessment of current
adaptive capacity, and appropriate and implementable adaptation and mitigation actions.
Area-Based Approach
One possible approach to designing research programs is to have area-based studies, i.e. focus
on one location and implement studies mentioned previously for this location. In effect, this involves
creating programs with multiple components/sub-studies in specific locations. One such program
that led to climate-related policy at the local government level is the Sorsogon City Climate Change
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (VAA). This study, which was implemented by the city
of Sorsogon, was funded by the UN- HABITAT’s Cities and Climate Change Initiative and the UN
System-Spanish Government Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Achievement Fund. It was a
highly participatory assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, which involved
communities throughout all stages of the study. The study led to the development of city-wide
policies that were grounded on solid scientific evidence. An area-based study like the Sorsogon
VAA can also be done by other sectors such as the agriculture or forestry sectors. Since the studies
should lead to policies that would be part of a larger sustainable development program, the unit of
analysis can be, for instance, watersheds.
Sector-specific Recommendations
Some studies can be part of a multi-component climate change research. These recommended
studies can contribute information leading to policy that can be mainstreamed into sustainable
development programs. The discussion dwells on sector-specific recommendations as well as cross-
sectoral studies.
Forestry Sector
The forestry sector will still play a major role in securing benefits from mitigation opportunities. Thus,
studies should be focused on providing needed information for the country to effectively participate in
CDM and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) programs.
Carbon sequestration studies
Better alleometric or biomass equations must be developed for carbon sequestration studies
in the Philippine context. These equations should be suited to the site and species in the site.
Findings will then lead to more accurate projections of tree growth and carbon sequestration.
Vulnerability assessment of forest ecosystems
To date, there are few studies on the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. There
is a need to assess the vulnerability of these ecosystems. The assessment could be done by
forest type and by forest species. A complementary study would be the valuation of impacts and
damages on forest types and species from climate change-related threats.
Improving and expanding mitigation options in forestry
Mitigation studies for the forest sector should be extended to capture realities in the field. In
particular, the mitigation potential of forestry projects must be estimated taking into consideration
barriers/constraints such as land tenure, rural cultures, risk-averse behavior, lack of product
markets, etc. (Sathaye et al., 2001).
There are also some researchable areas related to REDD. One is exploring the potential for
participation in REDD programs through PES schemes. Another is economic valuation of Forest
Ecosystem Services under the threat of climate change.
As discussed earlier, leakages may occur in well-meaning mitigation programs and reduce the gains
from CDM contracts. Hence, we need to analyze and identify effective provisions/rules in CDM and/
or REDD contracts that would address leakages.
Agriculture Sector
How climate change will affect the agriculture sector, in particular rice and corn, has been studied
extensively. However, there are gaps in assessing the most vulnerable areas and how this sector can
participate in mitigation opportunities.
Vulnerability assessment of agriculture
There is a need to conduct agricultural vulnerability mapping (economic) to identify which

agricultural areas in the country are most vulnerable to threats of climate change.
Exploring mitigation options for agriculture
There is a need to assess the mitigation potential of agricultural projects. Related to this is the
need to identify “CDMable” agricultural projects and to conduct benefit-cost analysis on such
projects.
Studying the potential of setting up a PES scheme for agricultural mitigation of net GHG emissions
is also recommended. This scheme can increase the value of conservation-friendly agriculture and
can increase the adoption of conservation agriculture. It is also a sustainable means of financing
projects on mitigating GHG emissions and/or carbon sequestration. This would require the valuation
of environmental services from agriculture. For instance, the U.S. has studies on valuation of carbon
sequestration benefits from soil conservation.
There are also emerging mitigation efforts such as conversion of crops into biofuels. While this is
a good development, there is a need to study the possible negative trade-offs between biofuels
(corn, sugarcane, and coconut) and food and land markets, land use change, biodiversity, and
environmental degradation.
The key for adaptation and mitigation measures, however, can be seen in agricultural development
aimed at co-benefits with higher resource use efficiencies. More prudent use of irrigation water in rice
can substantially reduce methane emissions. Fertilizer dosage driven by nutrient demand of crops
can likewise reduce nitrous oxide emissions.
Coastal Sector
Previously, coastal areas were seen as receptors of inland environmental degradation or the typical
upstream-downstream externality problem. With climate change, the problem or view has turned
“seaward in” or from the coast towards inland. This is especially true since major climate hazards
such as typhoons and sea level rise emanate from the sea. With continued degradation of terrestrial
ecosystems, coastal areas are being “sandwiched” by hazards. Despite this, there is very little
information on the impacts of climate change-related risks on coastal fisheries, inland fishery, and
aquaculture. Thus, this is one of the sectors that need more climate-related studies.
Vulnerability and impact assessment studies
While there have been rigorous simulations on the effect of climate change on specific crop
production, more studies are needed on the impact of climate change on the productivity of
coastal and inland fisheries. Studies addressing this gap could combine predictive climate
models with Biological Fish Growth Models. Fishery growth models should be site- and species-
specific. Scientific studies are prerequisites of these growth models.
Economic valuation of impacts should follow these simulations to generate values of potential
damage as well as the benefits of attendant mitigative and adaptive actions. The results of the
valuation even at just the financial level can be used to determine where intervention is most
needed and which species would be most affected
Implementing adaptation options for coastal and inland fisheries
It is also necessary to evaluate and value the protective functions of mangroves against sea level
rise and storm surges and create a PES-type scheme to encourage mangrove conservation.
Exploring mitigation options for coastal areas
With the strengthening of the REDD window, participation of the coastal sector in this window
through mangrove conservation can be explored.
Cross-sectoral Studies
Apart from sector-specific studies, there are also studies that can provide information for all sectors.
These studies can generate information for general climate change planning.
Vulnerability assessment
General studies that can help improve assessment for physical vulnerability include the
following:
- Use, identification, and/or development of better climate simulation models that would be
relevant to local-level planning. Such models should produce results with finer resolutions.
Current models like the GCM have low resolutions, thus results are more appropriate for
global and regional planning. Resolutions that cover around, say 20 km, are very useful for
planning at the local government level.
- Identify and develop community-based methodologies for vulnerability assessment. Refining

community mapping techniques, for instance, would produce more timely information and
would give stakeholders or communities some sense of ownership of the results. Along with
this is developing economic vulnerability measures/ indicators for the different sectors.
Implementing adaptation options in AFNR
Cross-sectoral studies under this would include the following:
- Benefit-cost analysis of adaptation strategies/options in agriculture, fisheries, and forestry.

These studies can be patterned after the IFPRI study on adaptation costs in agriculture
(Nelson et al., 2009).
- Analyzing adaptation behavior (i.e., choice of adaptation strategies) and adaptive capacity of
natural resource-dependent households/communities. We have little knowledge of the factors
that drive and affect the choice of adaptation strategies. This study should be done across
various ecosystems (e.g., upland vs. lowland farmers; inland vs. coastal fisheries, etc.). It
should also identify constraints to effective adaptation and explain the disparity between
recommended and actual adaptation strategies.
- Analyzing the coping mechanisms of natural resource-dependent households/communities

and the role of rural agrarian organizations and institutions in increasing their coping
capacity
- Increasing the adaptive capacity of natural resource-dependent households/communities

through diversified and sustainable livelihood activities.
- Assessing levels of adaptation deficit for AFNR at the household and LGU levels
- Evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation measures taken at the household and LGU
levels
- Studying the role of market and regulatory mechanisms in scaling up and enhancing the
efficiency of adaptation efforts (OECD, 2008)
Like most developing countries, the Philippines may contribute less to the climate change problem,
but we bear a significant brunt of its effects. Hence, the goal of any research initiative related to
climate change is to be relevant. Relevance entails that these studies either lead, aid, or permit local
level action that can contribute to solving the global problem of climate change. Focus on increasing
adaptive capacity and making resilient communities while capitalizing on emerging opportunities
from mitigation activities could be an effective policy strategy on climate change for the Philippines.
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APPENDIX
IPCC Story Lines
A1: The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, a
global population that peaks mid-century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and
more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity
building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional
differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family is further developed into three groups that
describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are
distinguished by their technological emphasis on fossil-intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources
(A1T), or balanced across all sources (A1B) (where balance is defined as not relying too heavily on
one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar improvement rates apply to all energy
supply and end-use technologies).
A2: The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying
theme is self- reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge
very slowly, which results in continuously increasing populations. Economic development is primarily
regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological changes are more fragmented
and slower than other story lines.
B1: The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global
population, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline. But, it involves
rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in
material intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on
global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but
without additional climate initiatives.
B2: The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions
to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global
population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid
and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 story lines. While the scenario is also
oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.
Source: ADB (2009) citing IPCC (2000)

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Socioeconomics of climate change in the Philippines: a

Book · December 2012

Asa Jose U. Sajise Rico Ancog

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Philippine Council for Agriculture,

Socioeconomics of Climate Change in the Philippines: A Literature Synthesis (1990-2010)

Authors: Asa Jose Sajise, Mercedita Sombilla and Rico Ancog

Layout: Joel Anthony T. Cardenas

Printed in the Republic of the Philippines

Philippine Copyright 2012 by SEARCA and PCAARRD

Introduction and Framework of Analysis 13

Climate Change-Related Risks/Hazards in the Philippines 15

Effects/Impacts of Threats Related to Climate Change 20

Human Responses to Climate Change and its Impacts 29

Trends in the Literature 45

Conclusion, Research Gaps, and Future Direction of Climate 51

ADB - Asian Development Bank

Patricio S. Faylon Gil C. Saguiguit, Jr.

Photo by Rosemarie Razon

Introduction and Framework of Analysis

Figure 1. Conceptual framework for the literature synthesis

Climate Change-Related Risks/Hazards in the Philippines

• Increase in temperatures as expressed by higher annual mean, maximum and minimum

• Changes in extreme events and severe climate anomalies: increased occurrence of

Climate Change-Associated Risks Observed Trends Citation Projected Trends Citation

increased by 0.6104oC, b) mean annual maximum

Climate Change-Associated Risks Observed Trends Citation Projected Trends Citation

Tropical cyclones. There is no significant trend in the Hilario et al. (2010)

Observed Changes in Climate Change-Related Risks

Simulated Changes in Climate Change-Related Risks

Effects/Impacts of Threats Related to Climate Change

Impacts of Climate Change- Observed Impacts of Climate

Table 2. Impacts of climate hazards... (continued)

Impacts of Climate Change- Observed Impacts of Climate

including damage to agriculture of around US$ 55 million.

Impacts of Climate Change- Observed Impacts of Climate

The rise in sea level contributed to Perez (2008)

Impacts of Climate Change- Observed Impacts of Climate

Endemic trees like the Philippine teak ADB (2009)

Impacts of Climate Change- Observed Impacts of Climate

Photo by Sourav Karmakar

Human Responses to Climate Change and its Impacts

Table 3. Philippine GHG emissions in 1994

Energy 50,038 49.7 122,344 70.4 145

Source: Summarized from Merilo (2001)

Fisheries and marine ecosystems

Categorizing recommended adaptation options

1. Sustainable development, natural resource conservation, and management policies.

Table 4. Recommended adaptation options for the different AFNR sectors

Water Resources • Protection of groundwater resources • Better use of recycled water

3. Public investment in infrastructure. This involves government expenditure on infrastructure like

1. There is a disparity between recommended and actual adaptation.

2. Household heterogeneity matters and adaptation behavior is a product of constrained

3. Households tend to cope with -- rather than adapt -- to extreme weather

4. Household maladaptation can have social (and economic) consequences.

strategies of upland farmers to environmental disturbances (notably typhoons) in Solong, San

Photo by Armin Hari

Trends in the Literature

Historical Perspective on Climate Change Literature in the Philippines

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010