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Confidence Intervals

Walden University

RSCH 8210: Quantitative Reasoning and Analysis

Dr. Randy Heinrich

September 26, 2021

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Dataset Analysis via SPSS

For purposes of this assignment, the Afrobarometer dataset was utilized. There were

10,313 total study participants, ranging in age from 18 to 100. The mean age of those

participating in the research study is 37.15 years old with a standard deviation of 14.490 years.

Due to failure to disclose age by 90 research participants, this statistic was calculated using the

reported ages of 10,223 study participants (Afrobarometer Dataset E, n.d.).

Confidence Interval: Number of Adults in Household

Table 1
Case Processing Summary: Number of Adults in Household

Figure 1
Number of Adults in Household Histogram
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Table 2
95% Confidence Interval: Number of Adults in Household

Table 3
90% Confidence Interval: Number of Adults in Household
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Interpretations

Using example direction from Frankfort-Nachmias et al. (2020) and instruction from

Wager (2020), the above figure and tables were created in SPSS and input into this document for

assignment purposes. The data was analyzed from Afrobarometer Dataset E, located in Doc

Sharing Resources (Afrobarometer Dataset E, n.d.). Confidence intervals of 95% and 90% are

displayed in Table 2 and Table 3, respectively. Though Magnusson (n.d.) presents confidence

intervals as being heavily misunderstood, he notes their usefulness when used in conjunction

with other forms of statistical analyses. Furthermore, despite a personal belief that confidence

intervals are not as valuable as other statistical analyses, Magnusson (n.d.) does recognize the

possibility of presenting confidence intervals in a standalone format.

Given the variable of “Number of Adults in the Household,” little change can be seen

between the 90% confidence interval and the 90% confidence interval. The lower bound 95%

confidence interval is 3.62 adults, and the upper bound is 3.72 adults, suggesting there is a 0.95

probability that the true mean of the dataset will lie within those numbers. This confidence

interval also indicates a 0.05 probability of error, or the mean not being encompassed within that

given range. This data can be seen presented in Table 2.

Table 3 presents the data given a 90% confidence interval. The lower bound is 3.63

adults, and the upper bound is 3.71 adults. The data suggests a probability of the dataset's true

mean being within the noted range as 0.90, allowing a 0.10 probability of error. This data

accounts for the 90% confidence and the 10% margin of error.

The 95% confidence interval offers a range of 0.10 from the upper to lower bound. The

90% confidence interval narrows the range slightly, calculated at 0.08 between upper and lower

bounds. Though decreasing the confidence narrows the range, it also increases the allowance for
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error. Given few outliers presented in the Afrobarometer Dataset E (Afrobarometer Dataset E,

n.d.), changing the confidence level does not drastically alter the upper and lower bounds as it

would with data showing more variance. This only slight change is suggestive of data that the

majority is closely grouped.

Implications for Social Change

Given the statistical analyses presented above, one can surmise the number of adults

typically present in the household is between two and four adults. This can be seen in Figure 1,

showing larger respondents reporting between two and four than any other number of adults

present in the household. There would then be a benefit in assessing the community supports

and programs available for that demographic, being that it makes up the majority of the

participants. This knowledge is also beneficial when establishing new services in the community

that aim to promote social change.

Households containing between two and four adults are largely representative of all

collected data. Targeting their needs will likely reach those reporting other numbers of adults in

the household via ripple effect. Should programs and resources initially be established for the

larger represented demographic, the likelihood that the program or resource will thrive is higher

because it can elicit greater participation. As the resource or program stabilizes, it can then

expand to reach the lower represented demographic without disrupting establishment in the

community. As more individuals are reached, there is a higher chance for positive social change

to occur.
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References

Afrobarometer Dataset E. (n.d.). Data base available at: Afrobarometer Dataset E.sav.

Frankfort-Nachmias, C., Leon-Guerrero, A., & Davis, G. (2020). Social statistics for a diverse

society (9th ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Magnusson, K. (n.d.) Welcome to Kristoffer Magnusson’s blog about R, Statistics, Psychology,

Open Science, Data Visualization [blog]. Retrieved from

http://rpsychologist.com/index.html

Wagner, III, W. E. (2020). Using IBM® SPSS® statistics for research methods and social

science statistics (7th ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.