Solutions 2.

Probability, Counting, Binomial Distribution

1. Let x represent the number of times a student visits a bookstore in a one month
period. Assume that the probability distribution of x is as follows:

x 0 1 2 3
p(x) 0.05 0.25 0.50 0.20

a. Find the mean .

b. What is the probability that the student visits the bookstore at least once in a
month?

c. What is the probability that the student visits the bookstore at most twice a
month?

Solution 1

a.
n
E ( x)    
i 1
x i P ( x i ) in our case n has 4 values 0, 1, 2 , 3 . So we add

  0 * 0.05  1 * 0.25  2 * 0.50  3 * 0.20  1.85

b. At lest once in a month tells us either 1 or 2 or 3 times in a month.

So we need P(1)  P(2)  P(3)  0.25  0.50  0.20  0.95

c. At most twice means 0 or 1 or 2

So we need P(0)  P(1)  P(2)  0.05  0.25  0.50  0.80

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 2. In a race with 8 runners how many runners can finish first, second and third?

Solution 2

The order obviously is important here. We will use the formula for permutations.

n!
n Pr  where n is 8 and r is 3
( n  r )!

8! 8! 40320
8 P3     336 ways.
( 8  3 )! 5! 120

Using Excel

PERMUT(8,3) = 336

3. A combination lock has a total of 30 numbers and will unlock with the proper 4
number sequence. How many possible combinations are there?

Solution 3

Again the order of the numbers is important. We will use permutation formula.

n!
n Pr  where n is 30 and r is 4
( n  r )!

30 ! 30 !
30 P4    657 , 720 ways.
( 30  4 )! 26 !

Using Excel

PERMUT(30,4) = 657,720

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 4. A set of 12 jurors need to be selected from a group of 50 people. How many
different juries can be selected?

Here, we are interested in the number of different groups of 12 we can select. The order
within any of the groups of 12 is irrelevant. We will therefore use the combination
formula

n!
n Cr  I n our case we have n = 50 and r = 12.
( n  r )! r !

50 ! 50 !
50 C 12    121 , 399 , 651 ,100
( 50  12 )!* 12 ! 38 !* 12 !

Using Excel

COMBIN(50123) = 121,399,651,100

For questions 5 - 9, solve firstly using the formulas and then using the tables and finally
using Excel. So you will have 3 methods for solving each one. Assume the binomial
distribution applies.

5. A student randomly guesses at a 20 question multiple-choice test where each

question has 4 choices. What is the probability that the student will correctly
answer 14 questions (70%)? Assume the guesses follow a binomial distribution.

We have a binomial distribution where n = 20, r = 14 and p = .25

Apply the binomial formula

n!
P (r, n)  p r q nr
( n  r )! r !

n! 20!
P ( r , n)  p r q n  r  P(14,20)  (0.25)14 (0.75) 6
(n  r )!r! (20  14)!*14!

20!
 * (0.25)14 (0.75) 6  38,760 * (0.25)14 * (0.75) 6  0.0000257
6!*14!

That is 0.00257%

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Apply the Tables

0-0 = 0. The tables are rounded to 4 decimal places and that is why the answer comes out
to zero and not 0.0000257.

Excel

=BINOMDIST (14, 20, 0.25, FALSE) = 0.0000295117

6. Suppose a judge’s decision follows a binomial distribution and that his verdict is
correct 90% of the time. In his next 10 decisions, what is the probability that he
will make fewer than 2 incorrect verdicts?

We have a binomial distribution where n = 10, r = 0, 1 and p = .1

We need the judge to make either 0 or 1 incorrect decision to ensure fewer than 2
incorrect verdicts. That is P (0, 10) + P (1, 10)

Apply the binomial formula

n!
P (r, n)  p r q nr
( n  r )! r !
10!
P(0,10)  * (0.1) 0 * (0.9)10  (0.9)10  0.3487
(10  0)!*0!

10! 10!
P(1,10)  * (0.1)1 * (0.9) 9  * (0.1)1 (0.9) 9  0.3874
(10  1)!*1! 9!

So P(0,10)  P(1,10)  0.3487  0.3874  0.7361 OR 73.61%

Apply the Tables

Straight from the tables we get 0.7361

Excel

=BINOMDIST (1, 10, 0.10, TRUE) = 0.736098929

OR if you took n = 10, r = 10, 9 and p = 0.9 then

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Apply the Tables

1 – 0.2639 = 0.7361

Excel

=BINOMDIST (10, 10, 0.9, TRUE) - =BINOMDIST (8, 10, 0.9, TRUE)
= 1.0 – 0.263901071 = 0.736099

OR
=BINOMDIST (10, 10, 0.9, FALSE) + =BINOMDIST (9, 10, 0.9, FALSE)
= 0.34867844 + 0.387420489 = 0.736098929
7. The United States Postal Service reports 95 percent of first class mail within the
same city is delivered within two days of the time of mailing. Six letters are sent
randomly to different locations.

a) what is the probability that all 6 arrive within 2 days?

We have a binomial distribution where n = 6, r = 6, 1 and p = .95

Apply the binomial formula

6!
P(6,6)  * (0.95) 6 * (0.05) 0  0.7351
(6  6)!*6!

Apply the Tables

1 – 0.2649 = 0.7351

Excel

BINOMDIST (6, 6, 0.95, FALSE) = 0.7351

b) what is the probability that exactly 5 arrive within two days?

We have a binomial distribution where n = 6, r = 5, 1 and p = .95

Apply the binomial formula

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 6!
P(5,6)  * (0.95) 5 * (0.05)1  0.2321
(6  5)!*5!

Apply the Tables

0.2649 – 0.0328 = 0.2321

Excel

BINOMDIST (5, 6, 0.95, FALSE) = 0.2321

c) find the mean number of letters that will arrive within two days.

 = 5.7, found by 6(.95)

8. The industry standards suggest that 10 percent of new vehicles require warranty
service within the first year. Jones Nissan in Sumter, South Carolina, sold 12 Nissans
yesterday.
There are no tables to use for this example.
a) What is the probability that none of these vehicles requires a warranty service?

We have a binomial distribution where n = 12, r = 0 and p = 0.10

Apply the binomial formula
12!
P(0,12)  * (0.1) 0 * (0.9)12  0.2824
(12  0)!*0!

Excel

=BINOMDIST (0, 12, 0.10, TRUE) = 0.282429536

b) What is the probability that exactly one of these vehicles requires a warranty service?

We have a binomial distribution where n = 12, r = 1 and p = 0.10

Apply the binomial formula

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 12!
P(1,12)  * (0.1)1 * (0.9)11  0.3765
(12  1)!*1!

Excel

=BINOMDIST (1, 12, 0.10, FALSE) = 0.376572715

c) Determine the probability that exactly two of these vehicles require warranty service.

We have a binomial distribution where n = 12, r = 2 and p = 0.10

Apply the binomial formula
12!
P(2,12)  * (0.1) 2 * (0.9)10  0.2301
(12  2)!*2!

Excel

=BINOMDIST (2, 12, 0.10, FALSE) = 0.23012777

d) Compute the mean of this probability distribution.

 = 1.2, found by 12(0.1)

9. The speed with which utility companies can resolve problems is very important. GTC,
the Georgetown Telephone Company, reports they can resolve customer problems the
same day they are reported in 70 percent of the cases. Suppose the 15 cases reported
today are representative of all complaints.

a) How many problems would you expect to be resolved today, and what is the standard
deviation?
 = 10.5, found by 15(0.7) and   15(0.7)(0.3)  1.7748

b) What is the probability that 10 of the problems can be resolved today?

We have a binomial distribution where n = 15, r = 10 and p = 0.70

Apply the binomial formula

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 15!
P(10,15)  * (0.7)10 * (0.3) 5  0.2061
(15  10)!*10!

Apply the Tables

0.4845 – 0.2784 = 0.2061

Excel

=BINOMDIST (10, 15, 0.70, FALSE) = 0.2061

c) What is the probability that 10 or 11 of the cases can be resolved today?

We have a binomial distribution where n = 15, r = 10, 11 and p = 0.70

Apply the binomial formula

0.4247, found by 0.2061 + 0.2186

Apply the Tables

0.7031 – 0.2784 = 0.4247

Excel

=BINOMDIST (10, 15, 0.7, FALSE) + =BINOMDIST (11, 15, 0.7, FALSE)
= 0.2061304 + 0.218623 = 0.424754

OR
=BINOMDIST (11, 15, 0.7, TRUE) - =BINOMDIST (9, 15, 0.7, TRUE)
= 0.703132 – 0.278379 = 0.424754
d) What is the probability that more than 10 of the cases can be resolved today?

We have a binomial distribution where n = 15, r = 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15 and p = 0.70

Apply the binomial formula

0.5154, found by 0.2186 + 0.1700 + 0.0916 + 0.0305 + 0.0047

Apply the Tables

1 - 0.4845 = 0.5155

Excel

1- =BINOMDIST (10, 15, 0.7, TRUE)

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= 1 - 0.484508941 = 0.515491