Diwali Muhurat Fundamental 2021

Fundamental
Muhurat Picks
Samvat - 2078
November 2021
Samvat - 2078
Wishing everyone Happy Diwali and a Prosperous Samvat 2078

Indian Markets created history in Samvat 2077 by hitting milestone after milestone. The Nifty surpassed 18000 on 11th October 2021 and BSE
Sensex surpassed 60000 on 24tth September 2021, with both Indexes gaining around 50% during Samvat 2077. The BSE Midcap and Smallcap
Index outperformed and gained 75% and 94% respectively. The upmove in markets was exceptional considering the spread of Covid19 and
subsequent lockdowns. The upmove was driven by all class of investors. While the FPIs set forth their conviction in Indian capital market by
infusing Rs 66000 cr in equities YTD, the retail category wasn’t behind. Samvat 2077 belonged to BSE Metals (+156%), BSE Realty (+125%) and
BSE Power (+115%).
Covid19 and subsequent lockdown impacted Indian economy which de-grew by 7.3% in FY21. However, the economy rebounded during the
second wave and grew by 20.1% in Q1FY22. Now IMF estimates Indian economy to grow fastest in the World at 8.5% in 2022. CPI inflation after
peaking in May and June 2021, has also softened in August and September 2021 and is below the RBI threshold of 6%. Hence, the RBI’s MPC
decided to maintain its accommodative stance on repo rate. The successful privatization of Air India has raised hopes about quick privatization
of other PSUs. The FDI flow also remained strong in FY21 with gross FDI inflow at US$82 bn compared to US$74.4 bn in FY20. Proactive RBI,
government reforms, schemes like Aatmanirbhar Bharat and PLI, fast pace of vaccination, strong GST collection, domestic consumption and
private investments would keep the story of Indian markets intact for the next two years. High frequency economic indicators like power
consumption, railway freight, e-way bills, cement and steel consumption have shown strong performance in recent months. Broadly, we do not
see any major change to the short-term and medium-term drivers for the Indian market. We expect a strong economic and earnings revival and a
stable Covid-19 situation to provide short-term support to the market. We do not see any change to India’s medium-term narratives including
favorable demographics and likely multi-year investment cycle led by corporate and household capital expenditure.
In global markets, commodities are experiencing a cocktail of price swings since the past year. What started out with the price of WTI crude
turning negative for the first time in history in April 2020 has now turned 180 degrees with oil prices hitting their highest since November 2014
after OPEC+ decided to stick to their planned output. Even natural gas soared, with no relief for coal either. As the global and domestic economic
recovery continues, persistence of supply-side disruptions and commodity prices’ surges pose adverse risks to both growth and inflation. Central
banks have started reversing pandemic measures gradually. The minutes of the FOMC’s September meeting highlighted that the Federal Reserve
officials could begin reducing asset purchases as soon as mid-November 2021.
Samvat - 2078
Wishing everyone Happy Diwali and a Prosperous Samvat 2078
Policy makers globally may also be prompted to look at rate hikes earlier than expected to combat rising inflation. Amidst fears of a global
contagion triggered by a probable default by debt-ridden Chinese behemoth, Evergrande, and the overhang of the Fed’s tapering stance, investor
sentiments globally altered between pessimism and optimism.
As India advance towards full vaccination and complete opening of the opening, we can expect consumption driven sectors to outperform in
Samvat 2078.Banks can be in focus led by demand revival in the retail sector such as housing, auto and unsecured loans. A low interest rate
regime leading to improved affordability will continue to fuel sales momentum in residential real estate sector. While we expect strong
performance of construction companies over the next one year on account of government’s impetus towards the infrastructure sector. We also
remain constructive on the cement sector on the back of medium-term demand growth visibility and increase in capacity utilization amid limited
supply addition. Focus on technology, automation, and shift towards greener capex bodes well for sustainable long term demand for the capital
goods sector. Non-ferrous metals are expected to do well due to supply side shortage, while Auto sector may show gradual improvement in
performance. Pharma sector also looks promising with speedy introduction of generic drugs, rural health programmes, lifesaving drugs,
preventive vaccines and USFDA approvals. Lastly, IT sector is also expected to do well as the demand environment is reasonably strong led by
spending by clients globally.
At 18,125 the Nifty is trading at 22.0x FY23E earnings of Rs 822 (KIE) and at 19.6x FY24E earnings of Rs 926 (KIE). The rich valuations of the
Indian market and of most sectors after the sharp re-rating in the multiples of most stocks from their pre-pandemic levels raise the prospects of a
pullback in the market and/or modest returns for a ‘longish’ period of time. On the basis of our assessment of markets, sectors and stocks, we
have identified ten potential stock ideas which are expected to do well in Samvat 2078. Happy Investing!
Samvat - 2078
ACC (ACC) – ADD
CMP: Rs. 2208 Target: Rs.2550 Investment Argument:

 ACC is well-placed ahead of its capacity expansion in attractive Central India and
Time: 12 Months Upside: 15.5% new WHRS (waste heat recovery systems) capacity commissioning in CY22E.
 ACC’s Q3CY21 operating profit was ahead of our estimate led by higher-than-
expected prices more than offsetting weak volumes.
 For 9MCY21, EBITDA increased 37% yoy on higher prices (+3% yoy) and higher
volumes (+20% yoy).
 ACC has impressively kept costs under control despite commodity cost
headwinds in 9MCY21.
 Benefits of master supply agreement and cost-saving initiatives like ‘Parvat’ are
reflecting under various cost heads.
 ACC’s expansion and cost-saving projects provide growth visibility. We expect
company’s volumes to grow by 17% in CY21E and by 8% in CY22E.
This is a synopsis of the Research report issued by Kotak  ACC is a free cashflow generating company. The company is net debt-free.
Securities Limited. This is not a comprehensive report and
before taking any investment decision we request you to refer  Our Fair Value of Rs2,550/share is based on 9X December 2023E EBITDA
the detailed report including disclaimers by clicking here: (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization).
https://www.kotaksecurities.com/ksweb/ResearchCall/Fundam
ental. Further, the recipient of this material should take their
own professional advice before investing.
Disclaimer: http://bit.ly/2n5AxIE Click here To read detailed report dated 19th October 2021
Samvat - 2078
BPCL (BPCL) - BUY
CMP: Rs.432 Target: Rs.550 Investment Argument:

 We remain bullish on BPCL noting -
Time: 12 Months Upside: 27.4%
 (1) expected recovery in refining margins driven by sustained improvement in
global demand,
 (2) robust marketing margins despite elevated oil prices and
 (3) potential value unlocking from privatization.
 Notably, BPCL's auto fuels volume growth was ahead of domestic consumption
in 1QFY22.
 Two of the three PDPP units have been commissioned in Q1FY22, although
stabilization activities will take a few months.
 Marketing margins on auto fuels have remained elevated.
 Kotak India refining margins have increased in recent weeks.
 We expect earning per share to increase by 18.3% in FY23E to Rs. 39.9.
This is a synopsis of the Research report issued by Kotak
Securities Limited. This is not a comprehensive report and  SoTP-based Fair Value of Rs550 based on 7X EV/EBITDA plus the value of
before taking any investment decision we request you to refer
investments.
the detailed report including disclaimers by clicking here:
Disclaimer: http://bit.ly/2n5AxIE
Click here To read detailed report dated 16th August 2021
Samvat - 2078
Hindalco Industries (HNDL) – BUY

Investment Argument:
CMP: Rs.473 Target: Rs.565
 UBC scrap spreads in August 2021 hit new record highs led by improved collection
Time: 12 Months Upside: 19.4% rates and rising aluminum prices.
 Rising scrap spreads should keep Novelis margins on an uptrend notwithstanding
the headwinds in the auto segment.
 Strong can sheet segment should more than offset transient impact on auto
segment.
 HNDL, commodity-based EBITDA is growing sharply on higher aluminum prices.
 Higher spreads suggest further QoQ margin expansion for Novelis in coming
quarters.
 We expect the company to report Free Cashflow of Rs29,575 cr during FY22-24E
period.
This is a synopsis of the Research report issued by Kotak  Strong aluminum prices and record margins at Novelis to drive earnings upgrades.
before taking any investment decision we request you to refer  With upside risks to earnings across India & Novelis, HNDL offers attractive risk-
https://www.kotaksecurities.com/ksweb/ResearchCall/Fundam reward.
own professional advice before investing.  Value the Hindalco at 4.5x Sep’23E EBITDA and Novelis at 6.9x Sep’23e EBITDA
and arrive
Click here at detailed
To read a fair value ofdated
report Rs565.
8th September 2021
Samvat - 2078
Hindustan Unilever (HUVR) – ADD
CMP: Rs.2456 Target: Rs. 2950 Investment Argument:

 HUVR reiterates strategy of growing the core, premiumization and market
Time: 12 Months Upside: 20.1% development.
 Management reiterated the underpinnings of HUVR’s growth.
 Winning with digitally savvy premium consumers in e-commerce.
 The company is market leader in Home Care segment.
 The management has called out some softness in rural demand.
 HUVR is confident of consistent double digit EPS growth partly aided by modest
margin expansion.
 In Q2FY22, HUVR witnessed market share and penetration gains in 75%+ of the
portfolio.
 Value the stock on Discounted Cash flow (DCF) basis & arrive at a fair value of Rs
2950.
Click here To read detailed report dated 20th October 2021
Samvat - 2078
ICICI Bank Ltd. (ICICIBC) – BUY

• ICICI Bank reported ~30% YoY earning growth on 20% yoy operating profit growth.
Time: 12 Months Upside: 7.0%
• Headline NPA declines as recovery and upgrades match slippages.
• Well diversified loan growth of 17% YoY; Deposit grew 17% yoy.
• NIM were at all-time high of 4%, increased by ~10 bps qoq.
• Gross NPL declined 25 bps qoq to 4.8%. The provision cover is 80%.
• NIM were at all-time high of 4%, increased by ~10 bps qoq.
• Gross NPL declined 25 bps qoq to 4.8%. The provision cover is 80%.
• We maintain our positive view.
• The scope of earning upgrades remain high. Valuation has room for expansion.
• We maintain Buy with revised Fair Value of Rs. 900 (at 2.6x Dec 23 book value) from
Rs. 810.
Samvat - 2078
Infosys (INFO) – BUY

CMP: Rs.1,708 Target: Rs.2,000
 Infosys is well-equipped for industry-leading growth in the medium term.
Time: 12 Months Upside: 17.1%  Infosys will be at the forefront of core transformation deals and managing digital
journey of clients.
 The growth leadership comes on the back of investments in multiple dimensions
of business.
 The outcomes of these investments are strong growth in digital, de-risked and
localized delivery structure and deal momentum, driving a consistent and broad-
based growth.
 Infosys will outperform TCS on revenue growth for the third consecutive year.
 Infosys has increased FY22E revenue growth guidance to 16.5-17.5% in c/c
(constant currency) from 14-16% earlier.
 The guidance revision is impressive and reflects strength in demand and market
share gains.
Securities Limited. This is not a comprehensive report and  We forecast good double-digit revenue for the next three years.
 Fair Value is Rs2,000, valuing the company at ~30x September 2023E EPS. A
https://www.kotaksecurities.com/ksweb/ResearchCall/Fundam growth leader that deserves premium multiples.
Samvat - 2078
ITC (ITC) – BUY
CMP: Rs.233 Target: Rs. 275 Investment Argument:

 The cigarette segment registered 33% yoy revenue growth in Q1FY22. We
Time: 12 Months Upside: 18.0% estimate volume growth at 30% yoy.
 The company witnessed gradual improvement in market conditions post mid-
June 2021. ITC launched refreshed packs of many brands in core areas.
 The FMCG business witnessed 10.4% yoy in revenue growth in Q1FY22 aided
by uptick in demand for staples and convenience foods. ITC continues to
invest towards distribution expansion in FMCG business.
 The domestic leisure segment witnessed an uptick since Jun 2021 which
Augurs well for the Hotel business.
 Paperboard, paper and packaging segment and agri business remain strong
for the company.
 Inexpensive valuations (cigarette business trading at 7-8X PE) and robust
This is a synopsis of the Research report issued by Kotak dividend yield (~5%).
before taking any investment decision we request you to refer  We are now attributing Rs10/share (Rs120 bn) to ITC InfoTech.
 Value the stock on Sum of the parts (SOTP) & arrive at a fair value of Rs275.
Click here To read detailed report dated 25th July 2021
Samvat - 2078
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) – BUY
CMP: Rs.1783 Target: Rs.2,100 Investment Argument:

 L&T has been selective in bidding for projects in the past, reflective in it
Time: 12 Months Upside: 17.8% generating healthy quantum of free cash flows (FCF).
 The central government provided impetus under Gati Shakti program to improve
execution of infrastructure jobs. We expect L&T to be a key beneficiary from the
course correction.
 L&T may consider bidding for more infrastructure jobs in urban infrastructure,
roads, power and railways once execution and commercial terms turn favorable.
 We believe that L&T can enhance exposure in railways and power sector as EPC
business gets de-risked.
 We expect 17% CAGR in revenues and 26% CAGR in PAT of L&T’s core
Engineering and Construction (E&C) business in FY21-24.
 L&T has generated meaningful amount of free cash flows after interest in
contrast to peers.
Securities Limited. This is not a comprehensive report and  We reiterate positive stance on L&T and value the consolidated core E&C
before taking any investment decision we request you to refer business at 17x earnings multiple.
https://www.kotaksecurities.com/ksweb/ResearchCall/Fundam  We increase sum of the parts (SoTP) based fair value to Rs2100 from Rs2050 on
ental. Further, the recipient of this material should take their higher fair value of investment Mindtree.
Samvat - 2078
Reliance Industries (RIL) – ADD

CMP: Rs.2,602 Target: Rs.2,800
 Near-term triggers from (1) recovery in refining, (2) launch of JioPhone Next, (3)
Time: 12 Months Upside: 7.6% plausible hike in telecom tariffs and (4) anticipated strong growth in retail
business keeps us constructive on the stock.
 Jio has commenced 5G trials at various locations.
 We expect higher subscriber base and rise in blended ARPU to Rs168/month in
FY2023 which will drive substantial increase in revenues and EBITDA.
 RIL remains on track to produce first gas from the MJ field by Q3FY23. Guidance
remained unchanged on achieving cumulative peak production of ~3 crore scm/d
in CY23 from the three KG D6 projects.
 Reliance Retail’s operational performance improved sharply in Q2FY22
benefitting from easing of restrictions.
 JioMart has extended to 249 cities now, scaling up its merchant base by 20x over
the previous year.
This is a synopsis of the Research report issued by Kotak  Fashion and lifestyle segment revenues increased 2x yoy to its highest-ever
quarterly sales.
the detailed report including disclaimers by clicking here:  We remain bullish on RIL with a Fair Value of Rs2,800.
Samvat - 2078
State Bank of India Ltd. (SBIN) – BUY

Time: 12 Months Upside: 8.6% • SBI reported ~45% yoy earning growth on the back of ~15% decline in provisions.
• NPL ratios were largely unchanged; restructured book is at 0.8%.
• It has built additional provision buffers and road to RoE normalization is shorter.
• It has an additional provision buffer of ~1% and a high coverage ratio of 70%.
• It is well positioned to emerge stronger. We can see more aggression on growth.
• We raise our fair value to Rs. 550 from Rs. 520; we value it at 1.3x adjusted book.

Click here To read detailed report dated 4th August 2021
Samvat - 2078
Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)

Samvat - 2078

Samvat - 2078
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Wishing everyone Happy Diwali and a Prosperous Samvat 2078

Wishing everyone Happy Diwali and a Prosperous Samvat 2078

ACC (ACC) – ADD

CMP: Rs. 2208 Target: Rs.2550 Investment Argument:

BPCL (BPCL) - BUY

CMP: Rs.432 Target: Rs.550 Investment Argument:

Hindalco Industries (HNDL) – BUY

Hindustan Unilever (HUVR) – ADD

CMP: Rs.2456 Target: Rs. 2950 Investment Argument:

ICICI Bank Ltd. (ICICIBC) – BUY

CMP: Rs.841 Target: Rs.900 Investment Argument:

Infosys (INFO) – BUY

ITC (ITC) – BUY

CMP: Rs.233 Target: Rs. 275 Investment Argument:

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) – BUY

CMP: Rs.1783 Target: Rs.2,100 Investment Argument:

Reliance Industries (RIL) – ADD

State Bank of India Ltd. (SBIN) – BUY

CMP: Rs.507 Target: Rs.550 Investment Argument:

• NPL ratios were largely unchanged; restructured book is at 0.8%.

• It is well positioned to emerge stronger. We can see more aggression on growth.

This is a synopsis of the Research report issued by Kotak

Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)

Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)

Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)

Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)

Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)

Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)

Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of subject company(ies): No

Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)

Disclosure/Disclaimer (Private Client Group)

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