ADDIS ABABA SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

UNIVERSITY
( AASTU )

College of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering

Department of Software Engineering

Statistics & Probability Individual

Assignment II

NAME : Edomiays Tariku

Group: 2
ID: 0328 /11
1. Four men and three women are to be seated at a lunch counter that has only five stools.

Let M=Men W= Women

a) In how many ways can these people be arranged at the counter?

There are 4M & 3M totally 7 Peoples to be seated on 5 stools

To arrange 7 peoples on 5 Stools
7 peoples for 1st stool, 6 peoples for 2nd stool …. and 3 peoples for 5th stool

Or
P(7,5) = 7! / 2! = 7*6*5*4*3 = 2520Ways

b) In how many ways can they be arranged at the counter if all the women are to be seated?

There are only 3 W to be seated on 5 stools, 2 stools are left so these 2 stools are filled by 2M
To place 3 W = 3 W for 1st Stool, 2W for 2nd Stool ,1W for 3rd Stool = 3*2*1= 6 ways
It’s obvious 4 & 5 Stool are M
th th

To place Left Places by 2M = 4M for 4th Stool , 3M for 5th Stool = 4*3 = 12 ways
By Multiplication Rule
12*6= 72 ways to place All W on 5 stool

C) In how many ways can they be arranged at the counter if all the women are to be seated and
if men occupy the first and last stool?

We know that we have 4M & 3W

Easily the pattern looks like M W W W M

1st Stool 2nd Stool 3rd Stool

4th Stool 5th Stool
M W W W M
4 Men 3 Women 2 Women 1 Women 3Men

4*3*2*1*3 ways = 3* 4!= 3* 24= 72 ways

D) If customers take seats at random, what is the probability that all of the men are seated and
that a woman occupies the middle stool?

Let A = all men to be seated

B = woman occupies 3rd Stool (middle)
A n B = all of the men are seated and that a woman occupies the middle stool
S = 5 stools counter

n(A n B) = looks like M M W M M

1st Stool 2nd Stool 3rd Stool 4th Stool 5th Stool
M M W M M
4 men 3 Men 3 Women 2 Men 1 Men

n(A n B)= 4*3*3*2*1 ways = 72 ways

n(S)= 5! ways= 120 ways

P(A n B)= n(A n B)/n(S) = 72 /120 = 0.6

2. In how many ways can a committee of three be chosen from 4 married couples if
A) all are equally eligible?
Selecting 3 peoples form 4 couples(4*2) or 8
C(8,3)=8!/5!*3!= 56 ways
B)one particular man must be on the committee?
Selecting 2 poeples(1 man already in a committee) from 7(that man also from 4 couples)
C(7,2)=7!/5!*2!=21 ways
C)a husband and a wife cannot be in the same committee?
Selecting husband or wife (not both) from Couples(2 in this case) is C(2,1).
So we do this for each committee 3 times
C(2,1)*C(2,1)*C(2,1)=2*2*2=8 ways

3. If the permutation of the word WHITE is selected at random, find the probability that the
permutation.
Let S= Sample space = WHITE(5 letter’s)
C = consonant
V = vowel
A word WHITE contains 3C { W,H,T} & 2V {I,E}
n(S)= 5!= 120

a) begins with a consonant

Assume A = word begin with Consonant

To begin with Consonant there are 3 C , for the rest 4 place all can be settle except the one
Consonant that’s place on 1st place (no repitition) = 3*4!

C C or V C or V C or V C or V
3 Consonant 4 Letter’s (5-1) 3 Letter’s (5-2) 2 Letter’s (5-3) 1 Letter’s (5,4)

n(A)= 3*4*3*2*1= 3 *4!=72

n(S)=5*4*3*2*1= 5!= 120

P(A)= n(A)/n(S)= 72/120 = 0.6

b) ends with a vowel

Assume B = word end with Vowel

To finish with Vowel there are 2V(either I orE) ,for the rest 4 place all can be settle except the one
Vowel that’s place on end place either I or E =2*4!
C or V C or V C or V C or V V
1 Letter’s 2 Letter’s 3 Letter’s 4 Letter’s 2 Vowel

n(B)= 4*3*2*1*2 = 4! * 2= 48
P(B)=n(B)/n(S)= 48/120 = 0.4

c) has a consonant and vowels alternating

Assume C= consonant & vowels Alternating like CVCVC pattern

C V C V C
3 Consonants 2 Vowels 2 Consonants 1 Vowel 1 Consonant

n(C)= 3*2*2*1*1= 3! * 2! = 12
 P(C)=n(C)/n(S)= 12/120= 0.1

4) A lot consists of 20 defective and 80 non-defective items from which two items are
chosen without replacement. Events A & B are defined as A = the first item chosen
is defective, B = the second item chosen is defective.

a) What is the probability that both items are defective?

Let D= Defective=20 T=Total=100
ND= Non defective=80
DD= Both to be defective
S= sample space
Easily by
n(DD) selecting 2 Defectives from 20 =C(20,2)=20!/18!*2!
n(S) total sample space =C(100,2)=100!/98!*2!

P(DD)=n(DD)/n(S)=C(20,2)/C(100,2)=20!*98!/18!*100!=19*20/100*99=0.038

b) What is the probability that the second item is defective?

This seems to be P(D,D) + P(ND,D) no matter about the first it can be both
But the second must be defective
P(ND,D)=80/100*20/99=80*20/99*100=0.1616
We know the value of P(D,D)= 0.038 from question a
P(_both_,D)=P(D,D) + P(ND,D) =0.038 + 0.1616=0.1996

5) Let A and B be two events associated with an experiment and suppose that
P(A)= 0.4
while P(A [ B) = 0.7. Let P(B) = P

a) For what choice of P are A and B mutually exclusive?

P( A u B)=P( A) +P( B)-P(A n B)
Since A & B are mutual exclussive A n B = 0 , P(A/B)=P(A n B)/P(B)=0/P(B)
P(A/B) also 0
P( A u B)=P( A) +P( B)
P(B)= P(A u B) -P(A)
p =0.7 -0.4
P=0.3
b) For what choice of P are A and B independent?
If A & B are independant A nB= A*B implies that
P(A n B) =P(A)*P(B)
So
P(A u B)=P(A) +P(B) -P(A n B)
0.7 =0.4+ p -P(A)*P(B)
0.7=0.4+P - 0.4*P
0.7-0.4= P(1-0.4)
0.3=P(0.6)
P= 0.3/0.6
P=0.5
Easily using venn diagram the concept becomes more clear
6) A medical research suggest that 20% of the general population suffers adverse side effects from a
new drug. If a doctor prescribes the drug for 4 patients, what is the probability that:

This question is an example of Bionomial Distribution satisfy all of 4 criteria

 Let X = number of side effects for doctor prescribed drug for 4 patients
n= number of patients = 4
P= 0.2(probability of having side effects)
q= 0.8(probability of not having side effects)=1-p

P(X=x) = nCx Px q n-x

a) None will have side effects?

In question a X= 0 (no side effect)
P(X=0) = 4C0 P0 q 4
= (0.8)4
= 0.4096
b) All will have side effects?
In this case X= 4 (all have side effects)
P(X=4) = 4C4 P4q 0
= (0.2)4
= 0.0016
c) exactly 3 will have side effects?
In this case X= 3 (3 will have side effects)
P(X=3) = 4C3 P3q
= 4*(0.2)3*(0.8)
= 0.0256

d) Find the expected number of patients that will have side effects.
X will be 1,2,3,4 side effects x=1…… . .n
In our case n=4

X=x 1 2 3  4
P(X) C(4,1) C(4,2) C(4,3) C(4,4)
(0.2)1(0.8)3 (0.2)2(0.8)2 (0.2)3(0.8)1 (0.2)4(0.8)0
X P(X) 4*(0.2)(0.8)3 2*6*(0.2)2(0.8)2 3*4*(0.2)3(0.8)1 4*(0.2)4

To find P(0) upto P(4) use the formula X=0,1,2,3,4

P(X=x) = nCx P n
q n-x

E(X) = x1 P(x1 ) + x2 P(x2 ) + x3 P (x3) + x4 P(x4)

=0.4096 + 0.3072 + 0.0768 + 0.0064
= 0.8

7) The following table is obtained from the personnel department of a company. If a

Age Bachelor’s Degree Only Master’s Degree Bachelor Degree

Under 30 90 10 100

30 to 40 20 30 50

Over 40 40 10 50
Total 150 50 200
staff is selected at random from the company, find:

a) the probability that s/he has only a bachelor's degree;

Let A= s/he has only bachelor’s degree

S= all peoples in Personal department of company

n(A)= number of s/he has only bachelor’s degree in all age

= (under 30 )+( 30 to 40) +( over 40) = 150

P(A)=n(A)/n(S)= 150/200=3/4=0.75

b) the probability that s/he has a master's degree, given that s/he is over40;

This question is like conditional probablity

Let A = s/he has a master's degree
B = s/he is over 40
A n B = s/he has master’s degree and over 40
A/B = s/he has a master's degree, given that s/he is ove40

Use a Table to get the n( A n B) ,n(B)

P(A n B)= n(A n B)/n(S) = 10/ 200
(from table there are 10 s/he with master’s degree andage over 40)
P(B)=n(B) / n(S) = 50/200
(from table there are 50 s/he over age 40 (40 from BA only + 10 MA )

P(A/B) = P(A n B) / P(B) = (10/200) /(50/200)= 10/50= 0.2

c) the probability that s/he is under 30, given that s/he has a bachelor's degree.

Let B = s/he is under 30

C = s/he has bachelor’s degree
B n C = s/he is under 30 and has bachelor’s degree
B/C = s/he is under 30, given that s/he has a bachelor's degree
BA = BA only + MA
Every s/he has bachelor’s degree (b/c BA only has BA degree but also MA has BA degree)
Use a Table to get the n(B n C) ,n(B),n(c)
n(B)= 100 n(C)=200 n(S) =200
n(B n C)= 100
P(B n c)= n(B n C)/n(S)=100/200

P(C)= n(c)/n(S)= 200/200= 1 (Sure Event)the reason is

Every s/he has bachelor’s degree (b/c BA only has BA degree but also MA has BAdegree)
BA = BA only + MA

P(B/C)= P(B n C)/P(C)= 100/200= 0.5

8) A chemical company currently has in stock 100 lb of a certain chemical, which it

sells to customers in 5 lb packages. Let X be the r.v. denoting the number of
packages ordered by a randomly chosen customer, and suppose that the p.d.f. of
X is given by:

x 1 2 3 4
P(X=x) 2k 4k 3k k
a) Determine the value of k.
By using property PX (x) =1
2k+4k+3k+k=1
10k=1
K=0.1
b) Compute the following quantities: E(X), E(X2), and Var(X).

E(X)=  xP(x)=(1*(2*0.1)+(2*(4*0.1)+(3*(3*0.1)+(4*(1*0.1))=2.3
E(X2)=  x2P(x) (12(2*0.1)+(22*(4*0.1)+(32*(3*0.1)+(42*(1*0.1))=6.1
Var(x)=E(x2)-(E(x))2= 6.1 - (2.3)2= 0.81
c) Compute the expected number of pounds left after the order of the customer
in question has been shipped, as well as the s.d. of the number of pounds
around the expected value.

# number of pounds left after the order of the customer

in question has been shipped
Let K= amount of lb left after next consumer E(x)=2.3,V(X)=0.81 from b,
E(K)=E(100-5X)=100-5*E(X)=100-5*2.3=88.5
V(K)=V(100-5X)=V(100)-V(5X)=0-V(5X)=(-5)2V(x)=25*0.81=20.25

Note: we know that V(5x)=52V(x) from V(KX)=K2V(X),

V(100)=0 from V(K)=0 where K is constant
# the S.D of the number of pounds around the expected value.
S.D=√V(x)=√(20.25)=4.5

9) For the r.v. X with p.d.f. f(x)= ke-3x , for 0 < x < ∞:
a) Determine the value of k.
 

  k.e
3 x
By property, = dx  1
 0

∞
) �) 0
��-3xdx= -ke-3x/3 |0= k(0 +1/3)=1
K/3=1
K=3
b) Compute P (1 < X < 2)
f(x) becomes 3e-3xsince we get k=3
P (1 < X < 2)= 1 3�-3x = 3e-3x/-3=-e-3x (let u=-3x
2
as x→2 u → -6 ,x→1 u→-3)
u -6
= -e |-3 = -e-6+ e-3=-0.0024 + 0.04978= 0.047
c) Calculate E(X) and V ar(X).
F(x)=3e-3xxf(x)=E(X),x2f(x) implies
E(X)=x*3e-3x ,E(X2)=x2*3e-3x
Using integration by parts to solve this question
 � � = 0
∞
∞
�3�-3xdx = e-3x(-x-1/3) | 0=0-(1*(0-1/3)=0-(-1/3)= 1/3=0.333
2
E(x )=( 0
∞ 2 −3�
� � )dx)= -x2e-3x-2xe-3x/3 -e-3x/9 | 0 ∞
=e (-x -2x/3-2/9)|∞0
-3x 2

= 0-(1*(0-0-2/9)=0-(-2/9)=2/9=0.222

Var(X) =E(x2)-(E(x)2)=0.222-(0.333)2=0.222-0.110=0.112

10) A secretary makes 2 errors per page on the average. What is the probability that
on the next page she makes
a) 4 or more errors?
Let X= no.of errors
P(X=x)= e-(np) (np)x/x!
Where np=the average number
In this case np= 2 errors on average
X>=4
P(X>=4) + P(X<=3) =1
P(X>=4)=1-P(X<=3)
P(X=0) = e-220/0!= 0.1353
P(X=1) = e-221/1!= 0.2706
P(X=2) = e-222/2!= 0.2706
P(X=3) = e-223/3!= 0.1804
P(X<=3)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)
=0.13+0.26+0.26+0.17=0.8569
P(X>=4)=1-P(X<=3)=1-0.8569= 0.1431

b) no errors at all?
We have done this question in a. X=0 , np=2
P(X=0)= e-(np) (np)x/x!
=e-220/0!=0.1353

11) All the pumps at a water treatment plant have been made to the same
specifications by a single manufacturer. From tests made over 4-week period, it has
been ascertained that there are on average two breakdowns during each period. A
new plant manager assumes that the problem is not serious if there are no more
than four breakdowns over a period of 4 weeks. What is the probability of such an
occurrence?
This question is the same like Q#10
no more than 4 (it must less than or equal 4)

P(X ≤)  P(X  0)  P(X  1)+P(X  )  P(X  ) P(X  )

k
e 
Using the formula P(X=k)= ٨=2 k=0,1,2.. find for 0,1,2,3,4 and add all of them
k!
P(x=0) = 0.1353
P(x=1) = 0.2706
P(x=2) = 0.2706
P(x=3) = 0.1804
P(x=4) = 0.0902
P(X ≤)  P(X  0)  P(X  1)+P(X  )  P(X  ) P(X  )
=0.1353 + 0.2706 + 0.2706 + 0.1804 + 0.0902=0.9471
12) From past data, an engineer has estimated a probability of p = 0.01 that timber
delivered at a construction site from a particular source is below specification. If
150 joists of timber are necessary for a particular construction job, determine the
minimum number which should be ordered so that the chance of not having the
required number of suitable joists is less than 10%.

We know that from Poisson distribution

P(X=x)=e-λλx/x!
n=150
P=0.01
Λ=np=average number =150*0.01= 1.5

13) The compressive strengths of concrete have an estimated mean of 60.14 N/mm
2 and a standard deviation of 5.02 N/mm2 and are assumed to be normally
distributed. What is the probability that in ten random tests the compressive
strength will be in the range 45-75 N/mm2 ?

We have a mean μ =60.14 ,standard deviation σ = 5.02 , range b/n 45 -75

Z1=45 Z2=75
P(Z1<X<Z2)= P( (Z1-μ)/σ < (x-μ)/σ <(Z2-μ)/σ )
= P( (45-60.14)/5.02 < Z < (75-60.14)/5.02)
= P(-3.016 < Z < 2.96)
Z1= -3.016, Z2= 2.96
From table
The area to the left of Z1 (-3.02) is 0.0013
The area to the left of Z2 (2.96) is 0.9985
The area b/n z1&z2 is 0.9985-0.0013 = 0.9972
The probability that in 10 random tests the compressive strength will be in the
range 45-75 is 99.72%

14. The scores for a statistics course seems to be normally distributed with mean 70
& standard deviation of 8.If the instructor wishes to give an A grade to 10% of the
students, what should be the dividing line between an A grade and a B grade?

mean μ=70 , standard Deviation σ = 8

It ‘s easy to represent this question in graph ,but in short 10% graded to A we find
the dividing line b/n A & B grade
Subtract 0.1000 (10%)from 1.000 to get the area under the normal distribution to the
left of x: 1-0.100=0.900
The area to the left of (0.900) is 1.28(using the closest value in this case
0.8997) z=1.28 ,μ=70 , σ = 8 find x
Z=(X-μσ =(X-70)/8
1.28=(X-70)/8
X=1.28*8+70
X=10.24+70
X= 80.24
Anyone Score >= 80.24 Score get A grade( dividing line b/n A & B grade)

15) A normal distribution has mean µ = 62.4. Find its standard deviation if 20% of
the area under the curve lies to the right of 79.2.

mean μ
P(Z>79.2)(20% of the area lies to the right of 79.2)
※ To the right of any z value: Look up the z value and subtract the area from 1.
※ To the left of any z value: Look up the z value in the table and use the area given.
※ Between any two z values: Look up both z values and subtract the corresponding areas.
Since it is to the right the P(Z>79.2) we subtract the area from 1
P(Z>79.2)=1-0.200= 0.8(80%)
From table the area to the left of z is 0.84 (the value 0.7995 is close to 0.8) now we
get Z value = 0.84 easily we can get standard deviation

Z=(X-μσ =(79.2-62.4)/σ =0.84

=16.8/σ =0.84
σ = 16.8/0.84= 20

16) A Population consists of five numbers 3, 4, 7, 9, and 12. Consider all possible
samples of size 2 that can be drawn with replacement from the population and
find:
Given that N=5 (Population size) n=2 (Sample size) with replacement
We have Nn=52= 25 Possible samples
a) the mean and the standard deviation of the population;

Population mean μ=(3+4+7+9+12)/5=7

Population s.Deviation σ=√( ((3-7)2+(4-7)2+(7-7)2+(9-7)2+(12-7)2 )/5))
=√(54/5)=√10.8=3.286
b) the sampling distribution of the mean
c) the mean of the sampling distribution of the sample mean (X- );
25 possible Samples distribution With it’s mean
3 4 7 9 12
3 (3,3) 3 (3,4) 3.5 (3,7) 5 (3,9) 6 (3,12) 7.5
4 (4,3) 3.5 (4,4) 4 (4,7) 5.5 (4,9) 6.5 (4,12) 8
7 (7,3) 5 (7,4) 5.5 (7,7) 7 (7,9) 8 (7,12) 9.5
9 (9,3) 6 (9,4) 6.5 (9,7) 8 (9,9) 9 (9,12) 10.5
12 (12,3) 7.5 (12,4) 8 (12,7) 9.5 (12,9) 10.5 (12,12) 12

The frequency distribution of sample mean

Xi 3 3.5 4 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 9 9.5 10.5 12 Total
fi 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 1 2 2 1 25

Find the mean of , X say

 Mean of Sample means μ x-=(3*1+ 3.5*2+ . . .. +10.5*2+12*1)/25=175/25=7

The mean of the sample means will be the same as the population mean.

d) the standard deviation of the sampling distribution of the samplemean(X- );

S. Deviation of sample means
σx- =√(3-7)2*1)+(3.5-7)2*2)+(4-7)2+1)+…+(10.5-7)2*2)+(12-7)2*1)/25
=√(135/25)=√(5.4)=2.32
σx- < σ
2.32<3.286
The standard deviation of the sample means will be smaller than the standard deviation of
the population & it will be equal to the population standard deviation divided by the
square root of the sample size.

σx-=σ/(√n)=3.286/√(2)=3.286/1.414=2.32

d) sketch the graph of the sampling distribution of X-.

Xi 3 3.5 4 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 9 9.5 10.5 12 Total

fi 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 1 2 2 1 25

Using table from above sample mean with their frequency

Figure 1. Sampling distribution of X-

17. Describe briefly the difference between:

a) Census and sample survey
Census includes the whole population for study whereas sample survey only
participates part of the whole population for study.

B) Sampling and non sampling error

 Sampling error is the discrepancy between the population value and sample value. May
arise due to in appropriate sampling techniques applied whereas Non sampling errors are
errors due to procedure bias such as: Due to incorrect responses
Measurement
Errors at different stages in processing the data.

c) Sampling frame and sampling units

sample frame is the complete list of all the units of the population whereas
sample units are just the unit used for one specific sample

Example : If one studies performance of freshman students in AASTU

Sample frame is the list of student at registrar whereas sample units is the students.

d) Probability and non probability sampling.

probability sampling is used when the selection of the sample is purely based on
chance and no subjective bias in the selection of units but non-probability sampling is not
based on chance rather on personal judgement.

e) Simple random sampling and stratified random sampling

simple random sampling is the most basic scheme of random sampling and each unit has
equal chance of being selected and stratified random sampling is a sampling used when the
characteristics to be studied is strongly affected by certain variable so samples don’t
have equal chance of being selected.

f) Cluster sampling and stratified random sampling

cluster sampling is the scheme of selecting the required sample by doing groups of study
units instead of studying each individually. stratified random sampling is the same as
cluster sampling but stratified random sampling study each sample individually.

18. Why do researchers usually select sample elements from a given population
◎ It saves the researcher time and money.
◎ It prevent destruction Test & provide higher level of accuracy.
◎ It provide greater Scope.
◎ It enables the researcher to get information that he or she might not
be able to obtain otherwise. For example.if the breaking strength of cables is to be
determined, a researcher cannot test to destruction every cable manufactured, since the company
would not have any cables left to sell.
◎ It enables the researcher to get more detailed information about a
particular subject. If only a few people are surveyed, the researcher can conduct in-depth
interviews by spending more time with each person, thus getting more information about the
subject. This is not to say that the smaller the sample, the better; in fact,the opposite is true. In
general, larger samples—if correct sampling techniques are used—give more reliable information
about the population.
◎ The only option when the population is infinite.

19. An insurance company has insured 300,000 cars over the last six years. The com
pany would like to know the number of cars involved in one or more accidents over
this period. The manger selected 1000 cars from the files and made a record of cars
that were involved in one or more accidents.
 a. What is the population?
Total No. Of cars =30,000 cars.
b. What is the sample?
The No. Of Selected cars by Manager=1,000 cars.
c.What is the sampling unit?
The Sampling units are cars.
D.What would be the sampling frame?
The Sampling frames are list of cars.
e. What is the variable of interest to the insurance company?
The variable of interest to the insurance company is the No. Of Accidents.

20. Suppose that in a certain population of drug addicts, the mean duration of abuse
is 5 years and the standard deviation is 3 years. What is the probability that a
random sample of 36 people from this population will yield a mean duration of
abuse between 4 and 6 years?

Given that μ σn

Using Z=(x-- μ)/(σ/√(n))
Mean duration b/n 4 and 6 years
Z1=(4-5)/(3/√36)= -1/0.5= -2
Z2=(6-5)/(3/√36)= 1/0.5= 2

To find the area b/n 2 z values -2 & 2, from table & subtract one from another
The area for Z1=-2 is 0.0228
The area for Z2= 2 is 0.9772

The area b/n Z1 & Z2 is 0.9772-0.0228= 0.9544 0r 95.44%

The probability of obtaining a mean duration of abuse b/n 4 & 6 years is 95.44%
P(4<x-<6)=0.9544=95.44%

21. Suppose that a random sample of n = 25 observations is selected from a

population which is normally distributed with mean 1 and standard deviation 0.25.
Calculate the standard error of the sample mean.

Given that n=25 μ=1, σ=0.25

then find Standard error of the sample mean (σx-)
σx-=σ/(√n)=0.25/(√25)=0.25/5=0.05= 5%

The end !!!!