Albert Einstein's famous line: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and

expecting different results."

Abdelmajid Tebboune's election to the presidency of Algeria was supposed to provide stability to
the country. However, since his inauguration in December 2019, the country has entered an era
of doubt and unreliability. The COVID-19 pandemic, political fickleness and yawning economic
anxiety have affected the regime. Since the start of Algeria's unrest, known as
the Hirak movement, the country is stuck in the same deadlock it has faced since 2019. The
movement, which began on Feb. 16th 2019, days after Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced his
intention to run for a fifth term, altered the relationship between the ruling elite and the
population. Notwithstanding that the Hirak did not provide any accurate concrete results, it
resulted in Boutefilka's removal by the army in April 2019. 
The Algerian top brass military's decision to abandon Bouteflika was surprising. The military
had been a staunch supporter of Bouteflika presidency. The Algerian army Lt. Gen. Ahmed Gid
Salah blocked any political reforms. He tried to placate the widespread anger by scheduling a
presidential election at the end of 2019. The goal was to erase the long years of Bouteflika's
presidency. The voter turned out was significantly low because Algerians believed that the move
was superficial.
The Military Rules but Does not Govern.
The government's stability is unlikely to be at risk if it retains the support of the army. The death
of General Gaid Salah, who played a crucial role in ascertaining the government's reaction to the
protest movement, and a key architect of Tebboune's rise to the presidency is unlikely to erode
the army's influence in government decision making. Unlike his predecessor, the new chief of
staff, General Said Changriha, has made no public comment on the Hirak. A long way from
meeting the legitimate demands of protesters, the race to presidential elections was a weak
attempt to stabilize a fragile regime. It is no secret that the army and police are the primary
power holder. They have been hiding behind the civilian government. The army and the elite
ruling groups have chosen nearly all of the country presidents since the independence of Algeria
in 1962. Controlling the executive office of the country has been a way for the army to keep its
grip over Algeria. All presidents from Ahmed Ben Bela to Abdelmajid Tebboune are always
cognizant that the duration of their presidencies is decided by the army*. The current
administration has initiated various refinements, including a constitutional change that was
subject to a referendum in November 2020. However, the proposed changes are unlikely to grant
the government the credibility it seeks from the protest movement.
An absent president and Deja Vue
Covid 19 caused a severe challenge to the regime. In late October, the day before the
constitutional referendum, the Algerian government announced that Tebboune had COVID-19,
and he was flown to Germany for treatment. Amid a hazy announcement by the government that
he was due to return shortly, Algerians were left without a president, or any updates about his
medical status, for two months. As a result, critical decisions and measures to fight the pandemic
and deal with the troubled economy have been postponed.
After returning to Algeria in December, Tebboune was flown back to Germany for more medical
treatments. He returned on Feb. 12th. Tebboune's absences have destabilized the regime by
increasing the degree of unpredictability. Although he has reported his recovery, his absences
certainly brought back memories of the previous health issues of Bouteflika, which often
compelled him to spend time overseas for medical treatment. Tebboune has spent three months
overseas for medical treatment. Upon this time, the government has reported just over 170,000
Covid-19 cases and slightly under 5,000 deaths from the virus. The country has recently received
its first shipments of vaccines and has begun a vaccination campaign, but the global demand for
vaccine doses will likely slow the process down. More challenges will likely follow. As the
pandemic expands, demonstrations against the current government and army rule will continue.
Although the government did not use violence against demonstrators, it has used the law
enforcement and the judicial system to repress them, including targeting free speech on social
media, arresting and harassing members of Hirak. Tebboune's attempt to portray himself as a
promoter of political change is not genuine by most Algerians. They are skeptical of promises of
reform presented by the same political elites that have governed the country for the past 60 years.
In a simple word, pressure on the regime will likely increase as the economic situation keeps
deteriorating.