Designing intuitionistic fuzzy

forecasting model combined with

information granules and weighted
association reasoning
Shafqat Iqbal1,2,

ABSTRACT A time series is a sequence of observations that a variable takes with respect to
times. It has a wide range of applications in decision making and forecasting in economics,
agriculture, medicine, industry, energy sector and other scientific fields. Time series modeling and
forecasting contain some of the classical issues that are widely addressed in the literature based on
traditional statistical models with low interpretability. Fuzzy time series has become a powerful
tool that can counter the problem of prediction of historical data in linguistic terms. This study
proposes a new framework for modeling the fuzzy time series approach in the environment of
intuitionistic fuzzy set theory to play viable role in ensuring robustness to the uncertainty involved
in data series. In order to get the optimized length of intervals, the principles of fuzzy c-means
(FCM) clustering and information granules are integrated. To fuzzify the historical data,
intuitionistic fuzzy triangular function is practiced to acquire the intuitionistic fuzzy sets.
Furthermore, the distance measures between the elements of the intuitionistic fuzzy set of the
fuzzified historical data and the centers of the corresponding clusters are computed for all fuzzy
sets. Finally, a robust fuzzy time series model is designed by extracting fuzzy logical relationships
and employing weighted association reasoning as an exhaustive defuzzification approach. The
parameters of accuracy measures such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error
(RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) are used to identify the strength of the proposed
modeling and forecasting. Findings demonstrate that the proposed forecasting method is robust in
determining the highly accurate forecasts.

INDEX TERMS Intuitionistic fuzzy set, FCM clustering, Information granules, Distance
measures, Forecasting.

I. INTRODUCTION information which resulted a lot of work presenting

In practice of time series modeling and forecasting,
classical issues are widely addressed in literature by
data analysts from almost every domain, e.g., capital
planning, scientific experiments, stock management
information, biological and medical experiments,
miscellaneous findings from sensor system and
different data sets regarding quality parameters.
Consequently, there has been a drastically expanding
measure of enthusiasm for querying such mining
new algorithms for indexing, clustering, classifying and
predicting time series data.
Song and Chissom [1], originally proposed the
idea of a fuzzy time series, based on Zadeh's fuzzy set
theory [2] to model uncertainty inherited in data series
due to vagueness and imprecision. Environmental
information regarding temperature, financial data
mining of stock market, energy consumption pattern of
different domains and data collection in various other
sciences should be called fuzzy time series in nature
because of the ambiguity and non-determinism found
therein. Fuzzy based algorithms deliver without
preliminary assumptions that the statistical forecasting
models generally require. Furthermore, fuzzy time
series methods can deal with time series data
containing a non-linear structure. These reasons are
encouraging and boosting the enthusiasm of researchers
in fuzzy time series modeling.
Recently, In addition to the development of new
mechanisms practiced in various fields  such as transfer
function and stabilization models [3, 4], fuzzy based
time series modeling and estimation analysis has been
widely applied in different sectors, including
forecasting of enrollments [5-7], ecological prediction
analysis [8, 9] and forecasting of financial data series in
terms of stock index [10-12]. Due to significance and
wide concern originated by the FTS theory to settle the
uncertainty problems, excellent work of different sorts
has been done. Genetic algorithm [13], single variable
based optimization model [14], algorithm based on
particle swarm optimization approach [15], clustering
methods [16-18], entropy based partitioning [19] and
fuzzy k-Medoid clustering approach [20] based
algorithms have been implemented in the literature to
improve prediction accuracy. Most of the FTS
algorithms are extracted from the Chen’s model [5].
These categorical notes discuss the real predictive
problems including data partitioning with different
length of intervals [16, 21, 22], order [23, 24] and
variables statistic [25, 26]. This study is also settled on
the prescribed framework.
The entire mechanism of FTS modeling, analysis
and accurate forecasting is affectively regulated by the
interval partitioning of data set [27]. In the earlier
developed FTS models, fuzzification was explored as
optimization of interval partitioning. Different expertise
such as technique of equal length intervals [1], using
average based approach [21], neutrosophic set and
quantum optimization based method [28] and automatic
clustering algorithms [10, 29] have demonstrated their
significance in literature. In addition, the notion of
information granules and fuzzy c-means clustering [30,
31] have been practiced to get the optimize length of
intervals to improve prediction results. Fuzzy c-means
clustering [32] is commonly practiced to develop
forecasting models, which is a soft type of k-means
algorithm. Because of indecisive and ambiguous data
about consideration of weights properly, which effect
the accuracy of forecasting. To address this issue, this
study proposes a unique weighted association
approach, which not only utilize the membership
function but also the additional information of non-
membership information to build the model for one and
more than one fuzzy logical relationships (FLRs).
series information, less accurate aggregates are
extracted from the previously stated algorithm. To
tackle with the perceptive challenges, they have made
several improvements to increase the prediction
accuracy [33, 34].
After attaining the optimized length of intervals,
next step is to address the issue of computing and
assigning membership information, a theory of
intuitionistic membership and non-membership
function with integration of distance measures is
introduced in this study. Due to indecisive and non-
deterministic information in observed time series data,
the novel approach of intuitionistic fuzzy imparts as
productive technique. The concept of intuitionistic
fuzzy sets (IFSs) was delivered by [35] to tackle the
issue of non-determinism as an extension of Zadeh’s
work [2]. This capable theory has attracted the
researchers for forecasting and decision-making
problems [36-38]. Recently, a few prediction
algorithms based on IFSs were proposed by [37, 38],
which produced optimal outcomes with less forecasting
error. In clustering environment, input elements with a
set of membership information can associate more than
one cluster. In literature, we can examine that all the
progress in time series analysis specifies importance of
membership information associated with corresponding
clusters which ignores the additional knowledge of
non-membership information. The approach of IFSs
will be fruitful by utilizing the knowledge of both
membership and non-membership information.
Furthermore, the operation of distance measures is
introduced to evaluate the preference of fuzzy sets
when input elements with a set of membership
information are associated more than one cluster. The
aim of this note is to compute the distance
measurements between the elements of the IFS of the
fuzzified observed time series data and the center of the
corresponding cluster.
Now proceed to discuss the last defuzzification issue
in order to produce the crisp forecast. Most of the
studies in literature adopted the defuzzification
approaches of Song and Chissom [7] and Chen’s
models [5]. In fact, each fuzzy logical relationship has
significant influence on the performance of forecasting.
Several defuzzification approaches have been proposed
in literature with logical consideration of fuzzy
relationships to deal with vagueness and uncertainty [9,
11, 15, 24, 39]. However, there are some drawbacks
The significance of this study is to design a robust
forecasting algorithm that have capability to combat the
problems of uncertainty and vagueness in historical
data by optimize partitioning and proper utilization of
membership information to overcome the prediction
process obstruction.
The prime contributions of this study are:
 We propose to utilize the notion of information
granules and FCM to get optimize length of
intervals due to indecisive and vague information
in data series.
 The IFMF principle is applied on data from time
series to obtain intuitionist fuzzy sets (IFSs) and
technique of distance measures is exercised to
evaluate the preference of fuzzy sets.
 We introduce a weighted association approach by
setting up the prediction rules for one and more
than one FLRs, which makes the forecasting model
explicable and certainly comprehended in the
domain of all science.
The remainder of the article is structured in the
following way: Section 2 discusses some basic theories
of fuzzy set, fuzzy time series, vague and intuitive
penalties, aggregation of FCM and justification of
the non-confident information when defining the
membership function of each component in set Ã. It is
obvious from the above knowledge for every y ∊ Y and
0 ≤ π Ã ( y ) ≤ 1.
Definition 2. [41] Intuitionistic fuzzy triangular
function (IFTF)
Let an intuitionistic fuzzy set is denoted by Ã,
which characterizes the both membership ui and non-
membership vi information, then IFTF is described by
three parameters, a lower bound α, an upper bound c,
and a value b, such that α ≤ b ≤ c. The intuitionistic
fuzzy triangular function for membership information
is given as
0; y≤a

{ }
justifiable information. The proposed fuzzy time series y −a
method is discussed in section 3. Section 4 describes
the application of the developed algorithm on the uà ( y )=
( )
b−a
−ϵ ; a ˂ y ≤ b
(3)
Taiwan Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) c− y
to predict the future trend, and also comparison with
the existing methods based on statistical performance
( )
c−b
−ϵ ; b ≤ y ˂ c

measures like, MSE, RMSE and MAE. Finally, the 0; y≥c

concluding remarks for this study and possible
recommendations are presented in section 5. Whereas the form of intuitionistic non-
membership information is as follows
II. PRELIMINARIES
This section briefly addresses the study of basic 1−ϵ ; y≤a
concepts of intuitionistic fuzzy sets [35], fuzzy time
series [1], FCM clustering [32] and information
granules [40].

A. FUZZY TIME SERIES

Definition 1. [35] Let Y be the finite universal set
then intuitionistic fuzzy set (IFS) characterizes the both
membership ui and non-membership vi information.
v à ( y )=

{
1−

1−
y−a
b−a(
c− y
c−b(
1−ϵ ; y ≥ c
)
; a ˂ y ≤b

)
; b≤ y ˂c
} (4)

Definition 3. [42] let Y(t) ( t = . . . , 1, 2, 3…) be the

Where u (y) and v (y) are associated with each point in
Y, a real value [0, 1]. An intuitionistic fuzzy set à in Y,
is presented as:
Ã={ y , u à ( y ), v à ( y )/ y ∊ Y }
Where u à ( y) ⟶ [0, 1], v à ( y ) ⟶ [0, 1] are the
membership and non-membership functions of the
observation y in IFS Ã with the following conditions
0 ≤ u à ( y) + và ( y ) ≤ 1
(1)
0 ≤ u à ( y) + v à ( y ) + π Ã( y ) ≤ 1
(2)
Where π Ã ( y ) is a degree of hesitancy introduced
by Atanassov for all intuitionistic fuzzy sets, which is
universe of discourse on which intuitionistic fuzzy sets
(linguistic terms) f i ( t )=〈 ui ( Y ( t ) ) , v i ( Y ( t ) ) ( t
= . . . , 1, 2, 3…) are specified. If F(t) is the collection
of sets f 1(t), f 2(t), … then F(t) (linguistic variable) is
known as intuitionistic fuzzy time series on Y(t) ( t = . .
. , 1, 2, 3…).
Definition 4. [42] Let there exist a intuitionistic
fuzzy logical relationship, such that F(t) is caused by
F(t-1) only then fuzzy logical relationship R(t-1,t) is
expressed as F(t) = F(t-1) ₀ R(t-1,t). where “₀” is a
compositional operator.
Definition 5. suppose there are fuzzy logical
relationships groups (FLRGs) such that F i ⟶ F j 1, F i
⟶ F j 2, . . . F i ⟶ F jn, then these relationships can be
grouped as F i ⟶ F j 1 F j 2 ,.. . F jn.
B.
C. INFORMATION GRANULES
The concept of information granules was primarily
directed by Zadeh [43]. This approach examines the
granulation a whole in all into small components and
every component is observed as a granule. Bargiela
[44] set out the notion of iterative data granulation with
respect to combination and evaluation issues. This
progression can appear in a particular optimal granular
computation structure. In this study, interest is to
establish a solitary information granule rely on
historical data set. Being recognized practice of
information granule, rational and semantic proficiency
are the two genuinely persuasive prerequisites. The
condition of feasible granularity is accomplished by
covering the more data particulars within the limits of
Ω, moreover, the magnitude of the granule
accomplishes the imperative of semantic. In order to
handle a time series data of the variable {
y 1 , y 2 , .. . , y n}, spread over a time interval {
t 1 , t 2 , . .. , t n}, information granules such as
Ω1 , Ω2 , . . ., Ωc must be executed at that point by
calling the notion of valid granularity to the
information index { y 1 , y 2 , .. . , y n}.
D. THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF
JUSTIFIABLE GRANULARITY
To construct information granules, the approach of
justifiable granularity [45] can be a better option among
the various practices of formalizing information
granularity.
Consider a one-dimensional numerical information Y =
{ y 1 , y 2 , .. . , y n} and a solitary information granule Ω
= [l, m] which is defined by its upper and lower bounds
“l” and “m” respectively. There are two inherently
convincing factors to be addressed in the course of
using the principle of justifiable granularity to develop
information granules: one is justifiable granularity and
the other is a well-persuasive semantics. For the
justifiable granularity, information granule Ω should
contain maximum information to be more acceptable.
The information granularity can be determined by
ascertaining the volumes of information contained
inside the granule Ω. For a finite set containing the
information of experimental data, we can ascertain the
cardinality of Ω, given as card{ x k ∨x k ϵ Ω }. The
increasing function of cardinality can be defined as
f 1 (card {x k ∨x k ϵ Ω}) where f 1 is an increasing
function of its argument. The particularity of the
information granule Ω concomitant with the well-
explained semantics can be defined in respect of length
of interval. For the better outcome, length of interval
should be concise, which satisfies the specificity of the
information granule. Where m (Ω) = |b-a| indicates the
length of interval and f 2 is defined as continuous non-
increasing function, recognized as f 1 (m ( Ω) ).
In the following, let us concentrate on the
construction of the optimize information granule Ω
with optimize lower and upper bounds within D. The
elements of the set “D” are considered in such a way
that cardinality regarding information granule and an
increasing function f 1 can be computed as
f 1 (card { x k ∊ D|med ( D ) ≤ x k ≤ b }). As there is
conflict in prerequisite of experimental authentication
(justifiable granularity) and particularity (semantics), so
we can either use a particular description of multi-
purpose optimization or contemplate the augmentation
of the composite increasing index that is recognized
autonomously for the upper and lower bounds of the
interval, that is
V ( b )=f 1 ( card { x k ∊ D|med ( D ) ≤ x k ≤ b }) . f 2(|med ( D )−b|)
(6)
V ( a )=f 1 ( card { x k ∊ D|a ≤ x k ≤ med(D) } ) . f 2(|med ( D )−a|)
(7)
Where med (D) indicates the median of D.
max
V ( bopt ) = V ( b), shows optimal upper bound
b ≥ med (D)
max
and V ( aopt ) = a ≤ med (D)V ( a) shows optimal lower
bound.
By taking into account the formulations recognized by
[45], we consider the following functions
f 1 (u)=u (8)
f 2 (u)=exp ⁡( −αu)
(9)
Where α is defined as flexible parameter to optimize
information granules Ω i .
III. PROPOSED INTUITIONISTIC FUZZY
FORECASTING MODEL
The complete procedure of proposed algorithm is
presented in this section of the paper. The proposed
mechanism is implemented on Taiwan Capitalization
Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX), which is the one of
the benchmark data sets examined in literature to
evaluate the forecasting progress of the several
proposed fuzzy time series models [7, 9, 46-50]. In
current analysis and prediction process of TAIEX, two
months observations for the year 2004 were used to
reveal the effectiveness of the proposed model. For this
purpose, optimized clusters and intervals are built using
the concept of FCM and information granules taking
into account the concept of [30]. Intuitionistic fuzzy
triangular function is implemented for fuzzification of
time series data, the technique of distance measures is
utilized as a criterion to select intuitionistic fuzzy sets.
Fuzzy logical relationships are organized and
defuzzification rules of weighted association are
implemented to get forecasts regarding TAIEX data set.
This study summarizes the advantages of the
proposed method as follows
 In this proposed method, FCM clustering is
applied to improve the ability to partition the data
sets into intervals by integrating the optimal
capability of information granularity.
 In real-life cases, when hesitation in the system,
then a non-membership function is needed. IFS
introduced by Atanassov [35] includes both
membership and non-membership feature to
handle the non-determinacy into system that can
boost the model performance. While, using the
hesitation margin, the formation of intuitionist
fuzzy sets is more practical than creating fuzzy
sets.
 Distance measures achieve higher predictive
accuracy levels for the TAIEX forecasts and to
address drawbacks of existing models.
 Several previous studies have proposed different
approaches to deal with fuzzy relations. Chen [5]
approach deals with Fuzzy Relationships as an
equivalent weight, Yu [51] proposed recent fuzzy
logistic rules and Cheng [39] implemented
weighted Apriori’s association rules to reduce the
forecasting error. To refine the serious drawback
of previous findings, this research introduces new
weighted association rules for single and multiple
fuzzy relationships with a view to address the issue
of assigning appropriate weights to fuzzy
relationships.
The proposed fuzzy time series forecasting
algorithm is designed as follows:
Step 1. Define the universe of discourse. If Amax
and Amin be the integers classify as maximum and
minimum observations of the time series data such as
Amax =max { yi| y i ∈ A } and Amin =min { y i| y i ∈ A }
then universe of discourse is defined as U = [
Amin − A 1 , A max − A2]. Where A1 & A2 are two
positive integers. This process makes the universe of
discourse appropriate and fit for further evaluation of
the observed data series.
Step 2. Partition the universe of discourse into
various effective interval lengths. The reliable
execution for researchers in fuzzy time series modeling
is to coordinate the optimization of interval lengths for
the universe of discourse to obtain the precise
anticipating results. In this context, the framework
includes how to partition the universe of discourse,
determine the prototypes using the principle of FCM,
and then ascertain the data granules of already
constructed subsets to acquire the effective length
of intervals. The entire framework of partitioning,
clustering, and perceiving the optimized intervals is
conceived as follows:
At this level, we construct the information granules
Ω i according to the procedure explained in section 2. If
vi represents the prototypes of subset Ai , then upper
and lower bounds for information granules are
characterized as l i and m i.
 Obtain the optimize intervals with unequal
length [ue 1 , ue2 , .. . uek ].
Step 3. Compute the membership and non-
membership information in the form of intuitionistic
fuzzy sets for fuzzification process of historical data.
For this purpose, intuitionistic fuzzy triangular function
(IFTF) and information of optimize length of intervals
generated in previous step are employed to construct
the fuzzy sets.
Step 4. This step computes the distances d 1, d 2 ,
. . ., d n between the “y” of the observed fuzzified
historical values of the time series data and the
corresponding centers ć 1, ć 2, . . ., ć k of the optimized
length of intervals ue 1, ue 2, . . . , ue k constructed by
the process of fuzzy clustering and information
granules.
d jh ( y , p ) =| y j −ć h| (10)
Where d jh ( y , ć ) is the distance between observed or
actual value of time series data y j and the center of
corresponding interval ć h (h = 1, 2,…,k). This
approach contains some well know properties.
 d jh ( y , ć ) ≥ 0, for all y and ć and d jh ( y , ć )=0
only if y = ć
d jh ( y , ć ) = d jh ( y , ć ) for all values of y and ć
The theory employs the distance measure to
aggregate the preference illumination. This approach is
very simple and appropriate to practice in empirical
domains.
For Example, if two fuzzy sets A3 and A 4 for j th
value of time series data “y” are constructed, then
distance measure for fuzzy set A3 and A 4 can be
computed as
d j3 ( y , ć )=¿ y i −ć 3 ∨¿
d j 4 ( y , ć )=¿ y i−ć 4 ∨¿
Where ć 3 & ć 4 are center points of corresponding
equal length of intervals.
Step 5. Based on the distance measures, select the
IFS as minimum of d jh ( y , ć ) between or among IFSs
with relevant membership and non-membership
degrees. Furthermore, add the non-deterministic
parameter value “ 𝜖 ” to the maximum of the both
membership and non-membership degrees. The IFS’s
obtained after adding non-deterministic parameter
value will be named as induced intuitionistic fuzzy sets
~ (1−u jh )
I jh (u' jh , v ' jh ). In formulae (11-12), the induced
membership and non-membership values are described
as
'
u jh=u jh + ϵ (11)
If u jh has the maximum membership value in
fuzzy set I (u jh , v jh)
v' jh =v jh +ϵ (12)
Ifv jh has the maximum membership value in
fuzzy set I (u jh , v jh). In addition, fuzzy logical
relationships (FLRs) and fuzzy logical relationship
groups (FLRGs) are formed after formation of induced
fuzzy sets.
Step 6. This step contains a defuzzification
procedure to accomplish forecast values for fuzzy time
series data to attain more accurate results than the other
aforementioned methods. In literature, more effective
principles of defuzzification have been upgraded with
time to get accuracy in prediction. Song and Chissom
[1, 7] defuzzification method comprises of three
principles on the basis of membership information,
Chen’s model [5] rely on three rules for
defuzzification: (1) if F h( h = 1,2, . . ., k) has no
relationship then the defuzzification value is the center
point of that corresponding interval ueh . (2) if F h⟶
F h+1 has the relationship then defuzzification value is
the center point of ue (h +1) interval. (3) if F h⟶
F h+1 , F h+2 , .. . , F k establish the relationship group
then defuzzification value is the average of center
values of corresponding intervals
ue (h +1) ,u e(h +2) , … ,u ek. Yu’s [51] concentrate on
repetitive fuzzy relationships and weighted fuzzy
relationships. A Trend-Weighted matrix approach is
also implemented in some studies [52, 53] . Also, Li
[54] employed deterministic forecasting model. So, to
improve accuracy in forecasting a unique
defuzzification model is proposed in this study which is
explained as
Based on the FLR's and FLRG's, get the
relevant weighted value relating to each real value and
find out the crisp forecasts using Eq. (3).
r
^y jt =u jh ć h+ ∑ (ć hq ) (13)
p =1 p
Where u jh is the association weight for the current year
of fuzzy time series data, ^y jt is the predicted value for
the current year t, p specifies the number of FLR’s and
ć h is the pivot quantity of the corresponding interval.
For more details, following rules are illustrated for the
process of defuzzification to figure out the forecasted
output.
Rule 1. If the observed production value for the
year j (j = 1,2,…,n) has association weight value uhj
and F h(h = 1,2,…,k) is the intuitionistic fuzzy set
corresponding to jth value of time series data and there
exists only one fuzzy logical relationship such as F h⟶
F h1 , and F h, F h1 are the current and next states
respectively, then the forecast of actual value for jth
time period is computed as
 ^y jt =u jh ć h+(1−u jh )(ć h 1) (14)
Where u jh is the association weight for the
corresponding year of the fuzzy time series data y jt
which related to fuzzy set F h, whereas ^y jt is the
forecasted value for the time t and ć h is the center
value of the optimize interval corresponding to F k .
Rule 2. If the observed value for the year j (j = 1,2,
…,n) has the membership value u jh and F h is the
fuzzy set corresponding to j th value of time series data
and there exists a fuzzy logical relationship group such
as F h⟶ F h1 , Fh 2 , .. . , F k , then the forecasted value
for j th time period will be given as
(1−u jh ) (1−u jh )
^y jt =u jh ć h+ ( ć h 1) + ( ć h 2 ) +, .. . ,+
p p
p
(1−u jh )
^y jt =u jh ć h+ ∑ (ć hq )
i=1 p The proposed mechanism is implemented on TAIEX,
Where u jh is the association weighted for the
corresponding year of fuzzy data series y jt, ^y jt is the
forecasted value for the year t j , ć h is the center value
of the optimize interval corresponding to F k and p
shows number of fuzzy logical relationships, for
example: if F h⟶ F h1 , Fh 2 which shows a
relationship of F h with F h1 , F h 2 then the value of p
will be equal to 2.
Rule 3. If the observed production value for the
year j (j = 1,2,…,n) has association weight value
and F h(h = 1,2,…,k) is the intuitionistic fuzzy set
corresponding to jth value of time series data and if
there is no fuzzy logical relationship, then the forecast
of actual value for jth time period is the center value of
the related interval. The proposed intuitionistic fuzzy
time series model is illustrated in Figure 1.
A. PERFORMANCE MEASURES
a: MEAN ABSOLUTE ERROR (MAE)
It is the average absolute difference between the real
and forecasted values. The equation can be described as
n
1
MAE= ∑ │ y jt −¿ ^y │ ¿
n j=1
jt
(15)
: ROOT MEAN SQUARED ERROR (RMSE)
Root Mean Squared Error is a determinant of
accuracy, used by measuring forecast errors of
historical data set to compare various forecasting
models. It is written as follows
RMSE = ¿¿ (16)
: MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE)
n
MSE = ∑ 1n ¿ ¿¿ (17)
i=1
(1−u jh )
where( ć ky) jt shows actual value and ^y jt indicates the
p
forecasted value
IV. IMPLEMENTATION OF PROPOSED MODEL
which is the one of the benchmark data sets examined
in literature to evaluate the forecasting progress of the
several proposed fuzzy time series models [7, 9, 47-50,
55, 56]. In the analysis and prediction process of
TAIEX, two months observations for the year 2004
were used to reveal the effectiveness of proposed
model. The description of TAIEX data set in terms of
size is presented in Table 1.
A. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Step 1. Defined the universe of discourse. If Amax =
5656.17 and Amin = 6088.49 are the integers
uhj
classified as maximum and minimum observed values
in TAIEX series data then universe of discourse is
defined as U = [5656.17−A 1 ,6139.69−A 2].
Where A1 &A2 are the two positive integers. We
took the value of A1=56.17 and A2=60.31 which
defined the universe of discourse as U = [5600, 6200].
Step 2. In this step partitioned the universe of
discourse into optimize lengths of intervals compatible
to the density of time series data. Because incredible
eminence for researchers is to organize optimize length A 4={ y ∊ A∨5903.30 ≤ y ≤ 5929.82},
of intervals is to get the exact anticipating outputs. In
this concern, firstly defined the universe of discourse in A5 ={ y ∊ A∨5929.82≤ y ≤5970.82 },
previous step, prototypes are determined by the use of
the FCM theory and subsequently the information A6 ={ y ∊ A∨5970.82≤ y ≤6024.77 },
granules of the subsets are measured to acquire the
necessary and efficient interval lengths. The method of A7 ={ y ∊ A∨6024.77 ≤ y ≤ 6139.69 }
separating, clustering and perceiving the effective
length of intervals is described as follows: Medians for the constructed subsets Ai are obtained
Computed the number of clusters c = 7 and prototypes with the following calculations.
vi (i = 1,2,…,c). where c = k/2= 15/2, then the number
of clusters are seven and, there are fifteen number of med ( A1) =5781.96, med ( A2 ) =5857.98,
intervals to be estimated. med ( A3 ) = 5892.51, med ( A 4) = 5911.63,
Furthermore, Enumerated the prototypes { med ( A5 ) =5941.33, med ( A6 ) = 6001.04,
v1 , v 2 , .. . , v 7} by taking into account the FCM med ( A7 ) =6049.49
approach.
The optimal results regarding interval information
v1 =5769.45, v 2=¿ 5857.11, granules Ω i are constructed in such a way that each
v3 =5892.588, granule comprises as much information as possible. If
vi represents the prototypes of subset Ai , then upper
v 4=¿ 5914.015, v5 =5945.613, v 6=¿
and lower bounds for information granules Ω i are
5996.022
characterized as l i and m i. For example, we explicate
v7 =¿ 6053.53 how to determine l and m, lower and upper bound,
respectively for the subset A1. First, we ascertain the
On the basis of aforetime established clusters and optimize upper bound m. For this purpose, the values
for prototypes v1 ˂ v 2 ˂ . . . v7 , the mid points x g are for the subset A1={ y 1 , y 2 , … y n } from left to right
v i+ v i+1 are as follows y 1=5656.17 , y 2=5759.61,
computed using the formula xg= , Where, g y 3=5778.65 , y 4 =5781.96, y 5=5785.26 and
2
= 1,2,…,c-1. y 6=5798.62 . Using Eq. (8) and Eq. (9) the upper
bound (m) for the information granule Ω 1 with median,
v 1 +v 2 v 2 +v 3
x 1= = 5813.28, x 2= = 5874.85, med ( A1) =5781.96 at α = 0.001 is constructed as
2 2
v3 + v4 v 4 + v5 m= y 4 , V(m) = 1 . exp (-0.001 . 5781.96) = 0.0031
x 3= = 5903.30, x4= = 5929.82
2 2 m= y 5 , V(m) = 2 . exp (-0.001 . 5785.26) = 0.0061
v 5 + v6 v6 + v7
x 5= =5970.82 , x 6= =6024.77, m= y 6 , V(m) = 3 . exp (-0.001 . 5798.62) = 0.0091
2 2
Moreover, the outputs of prototypes and mid points As a result, we obtained m opt = 5798.62 and in the
established the following subsets same way, the value of lower bound l is also computed
Ω 1. See Table 2. The other
for the information granule
A1={ y ∊ A∨5656.17 ≤ y ≤5813.28 },
computations regarding Ω 2, Ω 3 , . . .,Ω 7 are also
A2={ y ∊ A∨5813.28≤ y ≤5874.85 }, presented in Table 2. Furthermore, besides the
information of fuzzy clustering and granules data,
A3 ={ y ∊ A∨5874.85≤ y ≤5903.30 }, following optimize intervals [ue 1 , ue2 , .. . uek ] are
determined.
 U 1+ med ( A 1 ) Ã1 = [5600, 5600, 5690.98], Ã2 = [5600, 5690.98,
[
U e 1= U 1 ,
2 ]
=[5600 , 5690.98], 5781.96], Ã3 = [5690.98, 5781.96, 5818.52], Ã 4 =
[ 5781.96, 5818.52, 5857.95], Ã5 = [5818.52, 5857.95,
U 1 +med ( A 1)
U e 2=
,
[ 2 ]
, med( A 1) =[ 5690.98 ,5781.965876.71],
] Ã6 = [5857.95, 5876.71, 5892.51], Ã7 =
Ã
[5876.71, 5892.51, 5899.98], 8 = [5892.51, 5899.98,
5911.63], Ã9 = [5899.98, 5911.63, 5928.30], Ã10=
m1 +l 2
[
U e 3= med ( A 1 ) ,
2 ]
, =[5781.96 ,5818.52], [5911.63, 5928.30, 5941.33],
5941.33, 5967.22],
Ã11 = [5928.30,
Ã12= [5941.33, 5967.22, 6001.04],
m1 +l 2
Ue 4= [ 2 ]
, med ( A 2) =[5818.52 ,5857.98 ], Ã13 = [5967.22, 6001.04, 6022.98], Ã14 = [6001.04,
6022.98, 6049.49], Ã15 = [6022.98, 6049.49, 6200].
Then, using the IFTF (Eqs. (3-4)) and information of
m2 +l 3 triangular fuzzy sets, fuzzified the TAIEX’s historical
[
U e 5= med ( A 2 ) ,
2 ]
, =[5857.98 ,5876.71], knowledge in the form of intuitionist fuzzy sets. The
intuitionist fuzzy sets for the TAIEX data series with
m 2 +l 3
U e 6= [ 2 ]
, med( A 3) =[ 5876.71 ,5892.51],
membership and non-membership degrees are provided
in Table 3.
Step 4. In this step computed the distances d 11, d 22 ,
m3 +l 4 . . ., d jh between the y of the observed fuzzified TAIEX
[
U e 7= med ( A3 ) ,
2 ]
, =[ 5892.51, 5899.98], values of the data series and the corresponding centers
ć 1, ć 2, . . ., ć k of the optimized length of intervals ue 1,
m 3 +l 4
U e 8= [ 2 ]
,med ( A 4) =[5899.98 , 5911.63], ue 2, . . . , ue k constructed by the process of fuzzy
clustering and information granules by using the Eq.10.
This process is conducted for both intuitionistic fuzzy
sets individually and computations are depicted in
m 4 +l 5
[
U e 9= med ( A4 ) ,
2 ], =[5911.63 , 5928.30] Table 4. On the basis of distance measure values, the
intuitionistic fuzzy set containing the lower distances
are preferred and selected corresponding to every value
m 4 +l 5
U e 10=[ 2 ]
, med ( A 5 ) =[5928.30 , 5941.33], of TAIEX data series for further prediction process, see
Table 5.
m5 +l 6 Step 5. Based on the distance measures computed in
[
U e 11= med ( A5 ) ,
2 ]
, =[5941.33 , 5967.22] Table 4, selected the IFS as minimum of
between or among IFSs with relevant membership and
d jh ( y , ć )
,
m 5+l 6 non-membership degrees. Furthermore, the value of
U e 12=[ 2 ][
, med( A6 ) = 5967.22 , 6001.04 ], non-deterministic parameter “𝜖” is included to the
maximum of the both membership and non-
m 6 +l 7
[
U e 13= med ( A 6 ) ,
2 ]
, =[6001.04 ,6022.98], membership degrees using the criteria described in (11-
12). The IFS’s obtained after adding non-deterministic
m 6 +l 7 parameter value are named as induced intuitionistic
U e 14=[ 2
)]
, med ( A 7 =¿ ] fuzzy sets
~
I jh ¿ ) and are given in Table 4. Also, this
step contains the establishment of FLR’s and FLRG’s
U e 15=[ med ( A 7 ) ,U U ]=¿]
shown in Table 6 & Table 7 using the information of
Step 3. At this stage of computation, the Table 5.
membership and non-membership information is Step 6. In this step, defuzzification procedure
collected in the form of intuitionistic fuzzy sets for conducted on the basis of already established FLRs and
fuzzification process of historical data. For this
FLRGs for the fuzzified TAIEX data series to
purpose, firstly constructed the intuitionistic fuzzy
accomplish the crisp forecasts. The weighted
triangular fuzzy sets Ãh ( h = 1,2, . . . ,15) as follows
association approach described in section 3 is
implemented for this purpose. For example, the Other forecasts for the period 01/11/2004 to
calculations for the time 13/12/2004 are computed as 31/12/2004 are similarly computed and provided in
From Table 5, it can be seen that the fuzzified table 8. The comparison graph (Figure.2) indicates that
TAIEX values of time 13/12/2004 and 14/12/2004 are expected values are very similar to the actual values.
~ ~ Residuals are useful to help in anticipating the
I 6 and I 8, respectively. From Table 7, we can see that
adequacy of the model whether or not a proposed
there is a single fuzzy logical relationship (FLR)
model collecting the sufficient information for accurate
{widetilde {I}} rsub {6} ⟶ {widetilde {I}} rsubprediction.{8}
~ A successful model of time series prediction
. The induced fuzzy set “ I “corresponding to TAIEX must satisfy the following properties of the residuals.
~
data series for the time 13/12/2004 is I 6 = ˂ 5878.89,
~ ~  Uncorrelated residuals
{0.860,0.140} ˃ and FLR corresponding to I 6 is I 6⟶
 Residuals with zero mean
~  Residuals with constant variation
I 8. Since the center-points of the optimize length of
 Residuals are Normally Distributed
intervalsu6 & u8 are 5884.61 and 5905.805
respectively, then TAIEX forecast value for the time The analysis shown in Figures 3 & 4 with the help
13/12/2004 using Rule 1, Eq.14, is calculated as of R-studio software shows that all information in the
data set is used by the proposed intuitionistic fuzzy
^y 1=0.860 ( 5884.61 ) +¿) time series model and that all residual properties are
satisfying in this residual analysis.
^y 1 = 5887.58 The approach proposed in this study which is
applied to the TAIEX data set of 01/11/2004 to
Similarly, for more than one fuzzy logical relationships 31/12/2004, forecasting error results reported from the
or FLRGs i.e F h⟶ F h1 , Fh 2 , .. . , F k , Rule 2 proposed model and also for the existing fuzzy time
described in section 3 is implemented. For example, the series models are summarized in Table 9 and Figure 7.
calculations for the time 03/11/2004 are computed as Taking into account the results provided in Table 9 for
From Table 5, it can be seen that the fuzzified TAIEX the observations of the last two months of 2004 as a
~ study, it is evident that forecasting accuracy of the
value of time 03/11/2004 is I 5. From Table 7, we can
proposed method is better than other existing methods
see that there is a fuzzy logical relationship group for the specified TAIEX data set in the literature. The
(FLRG) proposed intuitionistic fuzzy forecasting model has the
{widetilde {I}} rsub {5} ⟶ {widetilde {I}} rsubbest {3}performance
{widetildein{I}} rsub {7}
forecasting the ,TAIEX
{widetilde
with MSE{I}} rsub {9} , {w
~
. The induced fuzzy set I corresponding to TAIEX data of 927.669 (Figure 5). It indicates that from this aspect
~ the proposed prediction model has a quite competitive
series for the time 03/11/2004 is I 5 = ˂ 5862.85, {0.74, characteristic as regards its predictive ability. As more
~ proof of this finding, Figures 5 & 6 describe the
0.26} ˃ and FLRG corresponding to I 5 is
~ ~~ ~ ~ predictive performance of TAIEX data set models
I 5 ⟶ I 3 I 7 , I 9 , I 10. Since the center-points ć h of the based on the RMSE and MAE values. When examining
optimize length of intervalsu3 , u5 ,u7 , u9 & u10 are the Figures 5 and 6, it is apparent that the developed
5800.24, 5867.345, 5896.245, 5919.965 and 5934.815 approach is better regarding accuracy measures than
respectively, then TAIEX forecast value for the time the other methods. Especially, for RMSE, having not as
03/11/2004 using Rule 2, Eq.13 is calculated as it was the smallest error value but moreover the least
MAE and MSE of the proposed method could be a
solid confirmation that it is the foremost strong
(1−u jh ) (1−u jh ) (1−u jh )
^y jt =u jh ć h+ ( ć h 1) + p ( ć h 2 ) +, .. . ,+ pforecasting
( ć k ) method among all the existing methods [7,
p 9, 47-50, 57].

^y 1=0.740 ( 5867.345 ) +¿ V. CONCLUSIONS

This paper proposes a novel fuzzy time series
^y 1 = 5872.67 forecasting model based on fuzzy c-means clustering,
information granules, intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory,
distance measuring approach and weighted association
laws to minimize the forecast error. The most
constructive step in this model is to consider the
relation in clustering process among values of time
series data. It first categories time series into a number
of time span, and then takes advantage of the justified
principle of information granularity to create granules
of different lengths. After designing the unequal space
intervals, initial intuitionistic fuzzy sets corresponding
to every observation are acquired and distance measure
approach favors to select appropriate intuitionistic
fuzzy set. Furthermore, induced intuitionistic fuzzy sets
are constructed, which lead to establish the FLRs and
FLRGs. At the end, the weighted association approach
is implemented to acquire the crisp forecasts. This
approach of association rules may consider the
relationship between preceding and next orders.
Although, numerous defuzzification operations are
used in literature, such as Chen [5] used arithmetic
function, Fuzzy c-Regression by Dincer [58] and
centroid average formula by Gupta and Kumar [59],
which obtained the weights by computing the
cardinality with the same FLRs. Therefore, the
proposed weighted association approach is more
realistic than the existing methods.
The productivity of the proposed fuzzy model is
evaluated through the real-time application: Taiwan
Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index
(TAIEX). The calculated accuracy measure values for
the proposed model are respectively 927.669, 30.46 &
23.172 for MSE, RMSE and MAE, which are
substantially lower than existing models. Furthermore,
residual evaluation and experimental findings indicated
that the suggested methodology reflects the better
predictive findings for prediction.
Future research is underway on expanding the
proposed model to address multivariate fuzzy time
series issues. Although this proposed mechanism
produces promising results, some limitations still exist
to the proposed method. Second or higher order logical
relationships, successful optimal and mixed methods
can be used to examine the single and multidimensional
problems of forecasting.
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