ARIMA ANALYSIS

An ARIMA model is a class of statistical models for analysing and forecasting time series
data. It explicitly caters to a suite of standard structures in time series data, and as such
provides a simple yet powerful method for making skilful time series forecasts. ARIMA is an
acronym that stands for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. It is a generalization of
the simpler Autoregressive Moving Average and adds the notion of integration.

Steps
1.First we ensure that we have added the xreal stats add-in
2.Then by using correlogram in the xreal stats we determine the p,d,q values to find out
which value is to be found the highest and touching the upper line.
3.Then we open the add-in for the Arima forecasting.We need to put in the p,d,q values we
found out in the earlier step to find out the forecast and future price of Bitcoin.
4.As we need to determine the forecasting for the next 30 days we write 30 in the last box.
We shall thus get the forecasted values
Analysis-
The above graph shows the expected forecasted values of Bitcoin for a period of 1 month
from 1st Oct-2021 to 31st Oct-2021 based on the volatility of the underlying asset ie
bitcoin.We see a marginal increase in the forecasted prices everyday.Though this cannot be
used as a definitive measure because of the nature of volatility of bitcoin but it could gives
us a brief idea about the forecasted prices of the same.The model also doesn’t take into
consideration the demand and supply side of bitcoin and other news based information
which could directly affect the prices of bitcoin.