TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents ____________________________________________________________________ 1

Welcome and thank you…_____________________________________________________________ 4
Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 6
Links (Data and resources) ____________________________________________________________ 8
Contacting the Author: ______________________________________________________________________ 8

What is Market Share _______________________________________________________________ 10

Why Market Share? _________________________________________________________________ 11
Definitions and Values ______________________________________________________________ 12
Pre Draft Rookie Big Board ___________________________________________________________ 14
**Post Draft Hit Rate Model Results** _________________________________________________ 16
**Post Draft Rookie board** _________________________________________________________ 21
***Rookie Projectionsand Landing SPots*** _____________________________________________ 24
Hit Rates by Breakout Age ___________________________________________________________ 27
Player Production Profiles ____________________________________________________________ 30
Age 18 Breakouts___________________________________________________________________ 31
Christian Kirk _____________________________________________________________________________ 32
James Washington ________________________________________________________________________ 34
Antonio Callaway _________________________________________________________________________ 36

19-year-old Breakouts _______________________________________________________________ 38

D.J. Moore _______________________________________________________________________________ 39
Courtland Sutton _________________________________________________________________________ 41
Tre'Quan Smith ___________________________________________________________________________ 43
Justin Watson ____________________________________________________________________________ 45
Equanimeous St. Brown ____________________________________________________________________ 47
DaeSean Hamilton ________________________________________________________________________ 49
Allen Lazard______________________________________________________________________________ 51
Daurice Fountain__________________________________________________________________________ 53
Devonte Boyd ____________________________________________________________________________ 55
Jordan Lasley _____________________________________________________________________________ 57
 D.J. Chark _______________________________________________________________________________ 59
Deontay Burnett _________________________________________________________________________ 61
Jordan Villamin __________________________________________________________________________ 63
Steve Ishmael ___________________________________________________________________________ 65
Shay Fields ______________________________________________________________________________ 67

Age 20 Breakouts___________________________________________________________________ 69
Michael Gallup __________________________________________________________________________ 70
Calvin Ridley ____________________________________________________________________________ 72
Cedrick Wilson ___________________________________________________________________________ 74
Richie James ____________________________________________________________________________ 76
Keke Coutee_____________________________________________________________________________ 78
Auden Tate _____________________________________________________________________________ 80
Cam Phillips _____________________________________________________________________________ 82
Simmie Cobbs ___________________________________________________________________________ 84
Dante Pettis _____________________________________________________________________________ 86
J'Mon Moore ____________________________________________________________________________ 88
Wyatt Demps ____________________________________________________________________________ 90

Age 21 Breakouts___________________________________________________________________ 92
Anthony Miller __________________________________________________________________________ 93
Trey Quinn ______________________________________________________________________________ 95
Ricky Jeune _____________________________________________________________________________ 97
Jester Weah _____________________________________________________________________________ 99
Deon Cain _____________________________________________________________________________ 101
**Braxton Berrios** _____________________________________________________________________ 102

Age 22 Breakouts__________________________________________________________________ 104

Marcell Ateman _________________________________________________________________________ 105
Byron Pringle ___________________________________________________________________________ 107
Korey Robertson ________________________________________________________________________ 109
Darren Carrington _______________________________________________________________________ 111
Jaleel Scott _____________________________________________________________________________ 113

Trends and Values _________________________________________________________________ 115

Age Relative Production __________________________________________________________________ 116
Breakout Ages __________________________________________________________________________ 118
Over/Under the AVG _____________________________________________________________________ 121
Production Dips and Losses _______________________________________________________________ 123
Conclusion _______________________________________________________________________ 127
 WELCOME AND THANK YOU…
Welcome to the 2018 wide receiver production report. Thanks for reading!
I imagine this is often the page people skip in rookie guides, but you shouldn’t. While I’ve worked very hard
on the information in this report, I can honestly say one of the most valuable things in it isn’t the list of people
who helped. These people are thought leaders, data providers, and good joke tellers. They are the rainmakers
and if you haven’t heard of them before, I can promise that finding out about them - supporting their efforts and
benefiting from their work - is definitely one of the most valuable things I can offer.
None of the things I do would be possible without any of these people and sites.
Most of the raw stats I use from 2000-2017 were collected from sports-reference.com by Sean Slavin from
TwoQBs.com (@slavin22). He is a god among men. He also happens to be one of the most talented quarterback
evaluators I’ve ever read and his TANY/A stat might actually be the most interesting new metric in the field I’ve
seen.
Addison Hayes (@amazehayes_ ) runs and operates ffstatistics.com/app. It is the easiest to use and the most
intuitive site for NFL statistics and information I have found.
Josh Hermsmeyer (@friscoJosh) works for 4for4.com now, but he is also the owner and operator of
airyards.com. His one of the most informative and fun accounts to follow on twitter.com. While his data isn’t
something I used directly in this report, it’s impossible to explain exactly how much effect his attitude to free
data and his process of doggedly working to find what stats and metrics can actually tell us has been.
Matt Kelley from playerprofiler.com was the first risk-taking adventurer to take a chance on me by letting me
write for his website. His website freely gives out so much information on every player and rookie that it has
revolutionized the way we can evaluate players. He also taught me a lot about how to form a process, adjust it,
as well as the value of taking a stance and not just hedging.
Thanks to the good folks over at Pro-football-reference.com and Sports-Reference.com, without who we’d still
be drafting quarterbacks in the first round and believing touchdowns lead to more touchdowns. Without data
we can do nothing to evaluate our ideas.
DLF and every writer on staff including Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23), Bobby Kock (@rekedfantasy), Peter
Lawrence (@_Petelaw), Jake Anderson (@NFLdrafttalker) and Nick Canzanese (@FF_NickCanz). Fantasy is
nothing if not fun and without the folks at DLF to talk about this stuff with, it would be a whole lot less, and much
less fun.
Finally (but nowhere near last) you. Cheesy, I know. But you took a chance and bought this thing. I can’t tell
you how grateful I am for that and how much I hope you find your values within. If you didn’t, let me know what’s
missing; if you did, let me know what’s missing. I’d appreciate that to.

Okay, let’s do this thing.

 INTRODUCTION
The 2018 NFL draft is upon us! While it’s the most exciting time of the year for a lot of us, there is always this
soul, rotten note that I don’t like. A lot of people seem to mistake fantasy analysis for an evaluation of the people
the stat lines we covert represent. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Every player entering the NFL draft has worked hard and hard enough to deserve success. You can’t get this
far in football without working hard. Many of them have done bad things off the field. Many of them have done
good things. Like most human beings they have likely done a mixture of both. But no matter what I or anyone
think their chances of success in the NFL are, we still have no idea or way to evaluate them as people. Nor should
we. Screw anyone who has an opinion on who these people are, or if they have worked hard enough. We don’t
know them, and we will not know them. And the one thing I know for sure is that all of them have worked harder
at this at most will likely ever work at anything.
There is not a single player I will root against succeeding. Or find undeserving of success.
Of course, life isn’t about deserve most of the time. When looking for fantasy relevant NFL prospects we are
quite honestly searching for one of the rarest things in sports. It’s so small a group that the only thing I can think
of more limited is trying to predict which kid from high school will actually get to go to space. Being good isn’t
enough. Ein the best isn’t enough. Being luck and good isn’t always enough.
It’s really, really unlikely.
To let you “behind the curtain” a minute, I’m writing this introduction before I finish the book. That’s not how
I’d recommend planning a writing schedule. Like any good process, you should set out what you will do in writing
before your finish, then you determine what you want to find before starting to research. An introduction should
really be hypotheses as much as a summary.
But I’ve just finished writing a large number of Rookie production reports and I need a break. I’m pushing my
deadline to the wire and all rakes must take on the form of a different kind of work or it’s not going to happen.
So, I’m going to tell you what I think I’m going to do in the pages that follow.
What am I going to do here?
First off, I want to actually give an answer; it’s one you can take or leave to whatever degree you want. But
instead of grades I’m going to give you a yes, I want that player, and a no I don’t’ want that player system. If
someone falls into a “maybe” category, then I want to give you a very precise value for the maybe: 3.4? 4.6? When
would maybe become yes.
To do that, I’m going to show you all the information I have about the most predictive values I can find for
predicting success in the NFL. Because I’m me, and I’ve been converted to the cause of actually proving what I
think or not thinking it by smarter people (many of whom I mention in the “Welcome Thank You” note before
this introduction, I’m also going to show you what I can about why, and how predictive the values I use are.
 After the Rookie Production profiles I’ve put some chapters outlining the studies I’ve done with production
data and the things I know about metrics I’ve found valuable. I’ll link to as many articles and people as I can.
There is always more to say and always more to know about everything.
I also going to have to define my terms. Because, I to, went to college and as you know they are really tight-
fisted… “folks” about that kind of thing. Just before the profiles I’ll include some definitions and explanations of
things like “when is age calculated to, at the start or end of the season” etc.
But since it’s fantasy, I know ranks are also something we gravitate towards. I’ll put up my ranks for WR’s and
RBs, because why not? I’m already here. I’ll also include my pre-draft “board”. This is where I would take every
player rounds 1-4 if I was the only person drafting.
More links. I have a lot of the data and all the values I’m going to use in this report available on Google Sheets
and in articles all over the place. I’m going to put it all in one place so you can use, test, look at, or whatever you
want.
So that’s the plan. How’d I do?
So, back to it then…Cedrick Wilson’s next for me but you can start wherever you’d like.
 LINKS (DATA AND RESOURCES)
Since internet links don’t work well in all formats this report will be published you can find an online version of
the lists by visiting:

rebeccaphoward.net/peteslinks

It’s easier to type into a web browser and should be much simpler for Kinde users at least.

Contacting the Author:

You can find me on twitter, pretty much anytime @pahowdy.

My work posts regularly on playerprofiler.com, Dynastyleaguefootball.com and TwoQBs.com.

Links to my data:

My MS Data Sheet from 2014-2018:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R0LCG_l6yGSwZ22QUOLGuqJkABwDcMfN-
e7c9ZdfE4U/edit?usp=sharing

Check out the second tab in the linked sheet above, I have every tool I’ve made so far linked including a
regression evaluation for 2018 for all positions and a tracker for the tgts, rush attempts, and airyards lost by
each team this off season.

2017 College Target Data from taken from FootballStudyhall.com:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zcHYDQPeCGm3K1bnt_iKSmQyKNVordeIMCia2R-
m34c/edit?usp=sharing

Resource Links:

DLF Devy Age Table: https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/devy-age-table/

 College Stats: Sports-reference.com
Metrics and measurable: Playerprofiler.com
ADP and Analysis: Dynastyleaguefootball.com
NFL Data: ffstatistics.com/app
Pro-football-reference.com

**I also highly recommend checking out the Dynasty Dummies podcast “cheat Sheets” it’s also avilabale for
free on Google Sheets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CmHrFDHAL7vTDAJSLW5wghlhOlQNu0G52enb3VNjqbk/edit?usp
=sharing

Recommended Draft Guides:

DLF Draft Guide: dynastyleaguefootball.com/2018-nfl-rookie-draft-guide

PlayerProfiler: Playerprofiler.com
Orange Report: http://theffghost.com/
 WHAT IS MARKET SHARE
The best way to view College Production is through Market Share. The percentage of Receptions, yards and
touchdowns a player had of his team’s total.
It’s how much of what a team did, was done by the them. Market Share, or MS, can be used to asses a player’s
utility to a team. It’s also a useful proxy of talent. As the most talent players demand the higher usage.
600 receiving yards isn’t impressive, until those yards make up 30% of the team’s total yards that year.
Counting stats can be misleading based on scheme, surrounding cast and a variety of other factors. The amount
of production a player has, the amount of a team’s targets the player demands, tells us more about the player
outside of those problems.
The way I think about it is to remember that one player, the one on every team who you always want to have
the ball, puck, base or space when it counts.
The reason that player has the ball so much is because everyone on the team and coaching staff know that is
their best player. That player is special This is reflected in the fact that target shares change when a special player
arrives on a college team and revert after they leave. The history of production tells us this isn’t about scheme or
one good year.
Special players, often more predictably than anything else we track, demand volume ad create more of their
team’s yards and touchdowns then anyone else. It’s really that simple.
 WHY MARKET SHARE?
Because it’s better than everything else. More accuracy, it’s the only thing that works consistently outside of draft
capital. It’s also more useful then draft capital, because it can grade players within draft rounds better.
Taking a moment to convert “stats” and the real world again. All Market Share tells us is how valuable a player
was to his college team. The historical trends tell us that at certain levels and ages, this indicates a player who is
more or less likely to perform well in the NFL.
There are plenty of narratives as to why this works, but honestly you can pick the one you like best. If we
convert it into a story, we run the risk of trying to use that story to push ourselves into believing we understand
it better than we do.
Once we convert what we can see into numbers we can compare it more easily across time and between
situations. We can also track it, test it and make sure we are paying attention to what matters, and not just what
makes our heart race.
Instead production gives us the odds. Or a better sense of them. If a player hits certain marks that I’ll mention
in a moment it places them in a certain category. Form there a player has a certain percentage chance to hit based
on their production.
For example. Breakout age is one of the most consistently relevant production measurements we have. But
both Odell Beckham and Mike Evans have second year, 19 years old breakout ages. Meanwhile Brandon Cooks
and Sammy Watkins (from the same draft class) sit with 18 years old Breakouts ages. These measurements don’t
identify the “best players” for fantasy, or even offer a 100% hit rate. But they do put players in buckets of who is
more and less likely to ever be fantasy relevant.
There are also other production measurements we can use based on Market Share. Both Cooks and Beckham
were higher over the average of successful NFL players according to an Age Relative Production trend line. This
created a better picture of how to rank them for fantasy even before the draft.

 Draft Round is the best indicator of fantasy success

 College Market Share production is 2nd
 Draft Capital describes opportunity
 Market Share can explain draft capital hits and misses

By combining production with draft capital, we can identify potential first round busts (Laquan Treadwell,
Phillip Dorsett, all had noticeable problems on the production reports for example). We can also identify
potential third round values more easily.
 DEFINITIONS AND VALUES
In this section I’m going to highlight the historical trends I’m going to use to “read” the production profiles of the
2018 Wide receiver class. It’s what I’m basing my opinions on, and it’s also how definite I can be about those
opinions.

College Dominator

College Dominator has long been a very useful metric for getting sense of a player overall production in college.
Frank DuPont was the first to raise the idea in “Game Plan”. A dominator rating over 35% is considered a
benchmark for a player able to be significant in the NFL.
It is calculated using players best and last season market share in receiving yards and touchdowns. While it’s
one of the most useful and predictive production based metrics it has its faults. For one thing a final season
breakout is often repeating the same statistic in the metric. However, a late season breakout is often not the best
indicator of a players potential given the trends in age relative production and the tendency for higher levels of
production at every age for “successful NFL wide receivers.

AVG Over/Under

This is the average % a player was over or under the Market Share in Receiving Yards of successful NFL players
when they were in college. I’ve including a full explanation of who I can to those values in the Trends and Studies
Section.

REC – Yards MS

Be taking away the total percentage of receptions away from the total percentage of Yards we can see if a player
was catching more passes then he was gaining yards for the team.
This is both a potential inefficiency (since targets = yards and points, so being fueled by volume might indicate
their numbers are themselves inflated) but it can also tell us somethings about their role on the team.
 Breakout Age

The age (at the start of the season) when a player catches a combined 20% of their teams receiving yards and
touchdowns.

Hit Rate Indicator

I’ve put a lot of time into trying to find a success metric for rookie prospects. I’ve struck out. Failed. Don’t have
one.
I’ve tested a few of their “potential” metrics for rookies and the relation to the scores and whether a wide
receiver finishing in the top 24 ranges from 3% to 15%. Depending on the date range you use to test it. Frankly,
I haven’t found one that is particularly correlated to successful NFL players…
However, I do want an overall view of a prospect’s chances pre, and post, draft. So I performed a linear
regression on Breakout age, age players were in the first season in the NFL, the difference above below the
average in MS yards for NFL receivers.
In short, my “Hit Rate Indicator” is ONLY a representation of how young a player was when they broke out,
and entered the league weighted by how much production they actually had. It’s not accurate for predicting who
will breakout in the NFL by itself. It’s a bird’s eye view of profiles without digging into the nuances.
I also have one that weights in draft round the same way for after the draft.
 PRE DRAFT ROOKIE BIG BOARD
This is how I currently have players ranked, if I were the only person drafting:

Based on DLF’s average rookie rank I put the same board together. I also highlighted who I was high on, low
on, and didn’t have on my board at all.
 My second round looks very different. I’m not trying to tell you who to draft, or even give up accurate rankings
here, more I want to highlight the players I’m particularly high one based on Market Share. Because the rankers
DLF are sharp people, I also want to show you who I, and you, should probably read more about then just this
report to make sure I’m not missing anything crucial.
This able can also be used as a reference to the current (at the time I’m writing this) ADP, which I’ll refer to
at times when writing the production profiles.
 **POST DRAFT HIT RATE MODEL
RESULTS**
To provide some context for our second indicator model I plotted previous class against their PPR pints in the
first 3 years of their NFL career. Here are the result for WRs in my database from 2000-2015:

A 2% difference doesn’t seem much but I found solace in the fact it was better at least since it was mostly a
way to marry the value of a player’s age relative production to their draft capital. However going through the
classes 1 by one I realized the top 5 highlighted for every class got better and more accurate as I moved down
the timeline. So I ran the regression again using wide receivers form 2008 to 2015, the Common Era to modern
football.
 A 6% difference is little more encouraging. Keep in mind I still think the results should be taken as one data
point while we weight their landing spots and other variables. How I’ve done that will become clearer when you
review the Post Draft Rookie Board chapter.
But for now here are the results for every Wide receiver in the catch report according to the post draft
indicator model.
 Keep in mind that players with 20% and less on this scale have had 100 yard seasons, however Larry
Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Amari Cooper, Deandre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Demaryius Thomas, Brandi Cooks, and
Sammy Watkins all rank in the top 15 in overall. (They were all also 1st round picks of course) As with most
models we are only trying to adjust draft capital to find those the NFL has reached on. So it is most interesting
when it disagrees with draft capital. Keenan Allen being ranked top 3 in his class despite being drafted in the
third round, for example.
In that way Justin Watson, Tre’Quan Smith and Michael Gallup all stand out as players who the model likes
more than their draft position would indicate.
 **POST DRAFT ROOKIE BOARD**

The draft is over, now it’s time to take my initial reaction to players and how I liked their production and adjusted
it based on landing spot and draft capital.

Here it is in a position ranks format, those in red did not make it onto the four round draft board.
 Finally it’s time to compare it to the average ADP of rookies post draft. I’ve included the same hand drawn
“heat map” of how my ranks compare to it as well.
Values:

There are several players I’m obvious looking forward to targeting at value: Rashaad Penny, Michael Gallup, Tre-
Quan Smith, Nyheim Hines

Suprises:

I really thought I’d be much higher on Anthony miller then most. Also I don’t like being this low on Lamar Jackson.
 ***ROOKIE PROJECTIONSAND LANDING
SPOTS***

I’m doing some projections for the Rotounderworld draft Guide. While you’ll have to purchase the guide to get
the final and updated versions of all of them I thought I’d share the initial Rookie projections as away of
addressing landing spot.
I use RACR and aDot to produce receiving projections, as well as historical trends for both the team and OC/HC
history of play calling in a weighted average.
Since rookies have no NFL history their efficiency and role is also a projection based on how I think their
College Production Will match up in the NFL. However I also use historical tendencies of rookies and something
we’re calling a “historical throttle” to make sure the numbers remain within a respectable range of probable.
In other words this is my best guess at the happy medium for their potential in 2018.

Floors:
I think DJ Moore’s projection errs towards the floor of his potential in 2018. There is a lot of passing to go
around and Devin Funchess Target share is anything but fixed at 20%, (I’ve dropped it to 17% for these initial
projections.) What’s more I expect Olsen, while undervalued, to suck up slightly less gets then unusual as he
comes back from his injury next season.
 Tre’Quan Smith has some upside even from this projection. I’m projecting he takes some of Ted Gin’s target
share, it’s a role Smith exceled in in College and it always has the benefit it leaves some room for Cameron
Meredith to get targets.
Michael Gallup could easily be this year’s rookie WR1 based on the amazing 52% of targets that have been
made available this off season with the loss of Jason Witten and Dez Bryant.
Rookies not projected who could easily become starters in 2018:
Richie James, the age 2 breakout, already had some promise despite his higher breakout age. Taken on by the
depth deprived San Francisco 49ers he could end up pushing Trent Taylor, anything but an established player at
this point, to find some work in the slot in 2018.
DJ Chark is on an open depth chart. While it might seem clustered and therefore deep, in fact I think the lack
of a clear hierarchy could help the rookie speedster establish himself if he impresses early. The same could be
said, with less convincing, about Allen Lazard.

Landing Spots I hate:

Clavin Ridley’s stuck hoping he can outperform Justin Hardy, he can, and Mo Sanu. Sanu’s bee extremely
efficient while in Atlanta and while 1st round draft pedigree should suggest Ridley has the inside track, that
efficiency is a hard thing to live up to. Sanu has yet to be a top 24 WR, and Julio, Freeman, and Coleman suck up
so much of the target share that even if he meets that high expectation he’ll struggle to be fantasy relevant. None
of that suggests a reason to replace Sanu with Ridley or decrease Julio’s dominance for Ridley. I’ve heard it
mentioned that he could become the next Roddy white, which seems like familiarity boas. It happened here
before so…but let’s not forget exactly how hard it is to be that good. Also how rare it is for a team t produce two
top 24 WRs.

Landing Spots I love:

An above average MS player, with a breakout age of 19, was taken not only in the top 3 rounds of the NFL
draft, but he was paired with Drew Brees! If there’s a player I’m more excited about in this year’s class, it’s either
DJ Moore, Anthony Miller or Michael Gallup, and given Smith’s third round ADP, I don’t think they come close.
Christian Kirk, and 18 year old breakout with draft capital and Larry Fitzgerald, move over Chad Williams I
have a new Arizona receiver I want to truther for.

It’s fine:
DJ Moore is still the WR2 in this class, and the landing spots not bad, plenty fo room for targets. But it’s just
fine. It likely means Moore is seen more as a do it all player than a typical number one receiver by the NFL, and
that’s definitely something he can very much excel at. So it’s fine. I’ll take it. Make me sad about all the Devin
Funchess teams I have now though.

Draft day surprise:

Of all the great role players in this draft, why did the San Francesco 49ers have to walk into Dante Pettis?
There’s always one player who I just can’t explain the fascination with, normally this is in the fantasy community
and often I spills over, or seems to, into the actually NFL draft. I can’t find a thing on his profile that even
approaches average ability or production. And yet his 2nd round draft capital ensures he will get targets.
Overall I’m hoping someone else takes him long before I have to decide if I want to in the late second round.
 HIT RATES BY BREAKOUT AGE
In a recent article for DLF I broke down the Hit Rates for NFL Rookie WRs by breakout age and draft round. I
used a top 24 finish as a benchmark for whether a player “hit” or not. Here is the table I included in that article:

I also broke it down by 150 Point PPR season. Using a lower definition of “hit” also increased the Hit rates for
each category, I thought it might give us a better perspective on the potential for each rookie prospect. A range
of outcomes can help decide where and when to draft a prospect.
This tool helps you rank players and then see their corresponding “Hit Rates” based on the draft round they are
taken in. This will be the start of my process after the NFL draft to see how my opinion on these players has
changed afterwards.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16RRTS4ea8pRgtmaCAjdPxyzeQ11gLsMRrxLwzZ8Htmc/edit?us
p=sharing
It also lets you know how far over or under the DLF consensus rank you are. This was only shared with those
subscribed to DLF and now, you guys. But I’m fine if you want to share it with other people. You bought it, after
all.
 PLAYER PRODUCTION PROFILES

Courtland Sutton 19 75.0% 60.0% 28.6% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Calvin Ridley 20 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
James Washington 18 80.0% 25.0% 28.6% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 40.0%
Christian Kirk 18 80.0% 25.0% 28.6% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 40.0%
Michael Gallup 20 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
E.St. Brown 19 75.0% 60.0% 28.6% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
D.J. Chark 19 75.0% 60.0% 28.6% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Deon Cain 21 33.3% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Anthony Miller 21 33.3% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Auden Tate 20 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Tre'Quan Smith 19 75.0% 60.0% 28.6% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Allen Lazard 19 75.0% 60.0% 28.6% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Dante Pettis 20 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Jordan Lasley 19 75.0% 60.0% 28.6% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Antonio Callaway 18 80.0% 25.0% 28.6% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 40.0%
Richie James 20 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
DaeSean Hamilton 19 75.0% 60.0% 28.6% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Keke Coutee 20 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Simmie Cobbs 20 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Cedrick Wilson 21 33.3% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
J'Mon Moore 20 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Marcell Ateman 22 100.0% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0%
Deontay Burnett 19 75.0% 60.0% 28.6% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Korey Robertson 22 100.0% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0%
Jaleel Scott 22 100.0% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0%
Braxton Berrios 21 33.3% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Trey Quinn 21 33.3% 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jake Wieneke 20 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Jester Weah 21 57.1% 41.7% 14.3% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Jordan Villamin 19 75.0% 60.0% 28.6% 27.3% 22.2% 25.0% 20.0% 17.6%
Darren Carrington 22 100.0% 66.7% 33.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0%
 AGE 18 BREAKOUTS

Having an 18th year Breakout age puts a wide receiver in the highest bucket for potential fantasy success in the
NFL. 45% of all WR’s with an 18th year Breakout age since 2001 have “hit” in the NFL. That’s if you define “hit”
as an 800-receiving yard season. The hit rate drops off fast and decreases by a 10%+ for every additional year.
Players with this value and draft capital in the first 3 rounds are target players. Those with above average
production according got age relative production become must draft players. Those with the physical and film
kudos to go along with it because players you trade up to get.
 Christian Kirk

Age: 21
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 201lbs
40 Time: 4.47
Yes/NO at ADP: Yes

Breakdown: Christian Kirk is a phenomenal prospect, and a likely slot receiver. The two are no mutually
exclusive.
 He has an 18th year Breakout age (38% to 59% hit rate), ranks 3.35% over the average in MS Yards for
successful NFL wide receivers. He should be drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft (10% correlation to
the number of 800 yards seasons.)
The chances that Kirk doesn’t have a fantasy relevant season compared to other prospects are small based on
historical trends. The fact he profiles physically as a slot receiver shouldn’t scare you off. Players that actually
have fantasy relevant seasons are rarer then we care to admit during rookie season.
I’ve yet to be convinced that roles transfer from the College game to the NFL game is a myth. Golden Tate was
a deep threat in college. But it doesn’t matter to me much if he is either. One successful WR from this draft class
would be great! SO what if he’s not a Julio Jones player, if no one else is either.
What we know is that in college he was a pivotal part of Texas’s passing game from the moment he stepped
onto the field. And his production could not place him in a higher percentile group for his odds of becoming
fantasy relevant.
Since 2001 there have been 11 WRs with 18th year Breakout ages, 1%+ above the trend line who entered the
NFL at age 21. All but 2 of those WRs have had a 150-point season: Dwayne Jarrett from 2004 and Marquess
Wilson who was drafted in the sevenths round.
Kirk does have a negative receptions-to-yards MS differential. In other words, he produced less of the team’s
receiving yards than he did of the team’s receptions. (like a slot receiver). Only 16 out of 61 players in my
database (26%) with this negative value (drafted since 2001-2015) have produced a 150-point PPR season. Kirk
compares more to those who did than those who didn’t Still, it’s enough that I won’t be willing to take him in the
first half of a rookie draft.
 James Washington

Age: 22
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 213 lbs
40 Time: 4.54
Yes/NOat ADP: Yes

Breakdown: I had some reservations about James Washington after charting his MS Yards compared to the NFL
Average. This slight drop in his final year, plus the fact he was under the average in year 1, made me wonder if
he wasn’t a mirage. Since then I’ve discovered that his -2.2% drop in yards doesn’t put him anywhere near the
danger category and that his final season was still above the trend line should matter more.
I do have one last reservation about his production and that’s how long he stayed in school. Like with Breakout
age the trend for production compared to the age a player enters the NFL is very clear. Coming in at 23-years-
old places him in a much narrower window for NFL success.
 Antonio Callaway

Age: 21
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 200 lbs
40 Time: 4.41
Yes/NO at ADP: Yes

Breakdown: I really want to focus on the production in this report. But it’s impossible to start a report on Antonio
Callaway without an off-field warning. Declaring for the NFL draft looked more like a move from The Great
Escape than a graduation ceremony for Callaway. He has had repeated and serious chargers brought up against
him at every stage of his career so far, enough that he is a risky investment even at the end of the second round
or start of the third in rookie drafts.
That said, his production profile is tantalizing. He’s entering the NFL at Age 21 (after skipping his last season
due to yet another problem involving an alleged credit card scam). If he had produced at a similar level as he did
in his first two years at Florida in 2017 he’d be in the conversation with DJ Moore and Christian Kirk as the most
impressive production profiles in this class. But he didn’t
Even still. he is 1.8% above the trend line for successful wide receivers, caught 11% more yards than he did
team receptions. Despite having only two years of production he still earned a 28% College Dominator rating in
the 29th percentile.
 19-YEAR-OLD BREAKOUTS
Between 2001 and 2015, the 19th year Breakout age is the most common for all for wide receivers in my database.
It’s also the second most likely group for a successful, and fantasy relevant, season.
39.6% of all wide receivers with this Breakout age have gone on to be relevant in the NFL (38 out of 96).
Notable players from recent draft classes with this Breakout age include Odell Beckham and Mike Evans.
While it’s nice to view a prospect through the higher probability lenses of an 18 th year Breakout, it should be
noted that a 19th year Breakout is NOT an indication of a lower quality receiver.
 D.J. Moore

Age: 21
Height: 6’0”
Weight: 2010lb
40 Time: 4.42
Yes/NO at ADP: Hell Yes

Breakdown: DJ Moore is so far ahead of the rest of this class in terms of his production that he may as well be
playing a different sport.
 His College Dominator ranks in the upper 98th percentile and his 5.2% above the trend line for successful wide
receivers is also the highest in this class. He produced more yards than he received receptions despite being the
majority of the team’s offensive production in Maryland. Producing this much, on a team whose offence struggled
in 2017 is an extra feather in his cap and not a deficient.
Demaryius Thomas owned 62% of his college team’s touchdowns and yards at age 22, DJ Moore’s 53.3% is
the second highest I’ve ever seen for FBS rookies with likely top 3 round draft capital. And he did it at age 20.
Moore is the only WR I’d consider at the top half of the first round in a rookie draft. He missed out on a 18 th
year Breakout age by 1.5% and can easily be adjusted (based on his to games missed) into that category as well.
But there’s no need. Moore’s production is spotless in terms of historical trends. He is the most likely WR in this
class to be NFL and fantasy relevant.
There were 11 players between 2001 and 2015 to enter the NFL at age 21 with a 19th year Breakout value
and positive values against the trend line for successful WRs and in REC-YDs differential. 8/11 of those players
have had at least one 150-point PPR season (72%). Only one player in this group had a College Dominator over
50% and failed to have a 150 Point season: Stephen Hill who was drafted in the 2nd round in 2011 but finished
both of his first two seasons on the IR (and had to catch passes from Geno Smith at one point).
 Courtland Sutton

Age: 22
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 218lbs
40 Time: 4.54
Yes/No at ADP: Yes

Breakdown: Courtland Sutton didn’t do much in his 18th year season, which is concerning as is the -10.9% drop
in production in his final year. Players have become successful with both things on their production report, but
it places him in a less likely hit rate category than I’d hoped before the 2017 season. However, he still scores well
in College dominator and produced 22#% more of his team’s yards then he was given in receptions.
7 out of 86 (8%) players who have produced a 150-point fantasy season since 2008 had a production drop
greater then10% in their final year. This moderates Sutton’s Breakout age and his 1.2% average of the trend line
of successful WRs in age relative production.
In short, I think Sutton might have a lot more riding on the opportunity first round draft capital provides then
a player like DJ Moore.
 Tre'Quan Smith

Age: 21
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 210lbs
40 Time: 4.49
Yes/NO
at ADP: Yes
(I’d take him earlier too)
Breakdown: Another way to think about 19th year Breakouts: between 2001 and 2015 48 wide receivers have
entered the NFL with a Breakout age of 19 and zero MS Yards in their age 18 season. 22 of them have gone on to
have at least one 150-point PPR season (45%).
Of those who hit, 9 had 1st round draft capital (2 misses so far) 6 were drafted in the 2nd round and 4 were
drafted in round 3.
That leaves 3 players: 1 was drafted in the fourth round (Mike Williams, the 2010 version) 1 was Antonio
Brown (6th round), and 1 had two 150-point PPR seasons, but didn’t Breakout with his first in the NFL until his
sixth year (although he did have an 800-yard season in his 5th year).
Tre’Quan Smith’s production was above average; his last year dip isn’t big enough to be concerned about and
he did well enough at the combine. He has a 2% over AVG value which isn’t good (Deandre Hopkins has a +2.98%
AVG Over/Under). But a lot is going to ride on how he NFL views him. If he gets drafted, his odds of hitting as a
19th year Breakout with above average production is around 28% in the third round, and 60% in the second
round based. That’s a big difference.
 Justin Watson

Age: 22
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 215lbs
40 Time: 4.49 (adjusted)
YES/NO at ADP: Yes

Breakdown: Prospects outside the FBS do hit in the NFL, most recently; John Brown, Tyrell Williams, Adam
Thielen, and Keelan Cole. There are also examples of division II prospects who transfer to the FSB before being
drafted in the NFL. The most recent example is Kenny Golladay. These players provide a path to understanding
how lower valued college experience can still give us an idea of what to look for.
None of that matters much to Justin Watson. His combined yards and touchdowns at age 21 accounted for
60% of the offence. The only higher share I’ve seen was Demaryius Thomas at the same age. Now, Thomas was
the dominant force on an anemic Georgia Tech offence in the ACC when two the team rushed for close to 5000
yards in the same year. Thomas posted a 62% share of the receiving yards and 68% of Georgia Tech’s receiving
touchdowns and yards combined. On the other hand, Watson was the dominant force on a team that was more
pass centric, 2144 receiving yards in the same year and Watson’s.
There have been 5 prospects since 2001 who have posted 60%+ market share numbers at any age including
Thomas and Watson. One was Dez Bryant, one was Justin McCareins (who posted a 150-point PPR season).
Another was Rashaun Woods, a first round draft pick in 2004. Woods didn’t start a single game, only caught
7 passes for 160 yards a touchdown, and then got place on injured reserve at the end of the year. He finally
flushed out the NFL when he failed a physical for the Broncos in 2006 and failed to make the team after a workout
for the Vikings.
The hit rate of wide receivers who are invited the NFL combine are not good (Watson wasn’t). Unsurprisingly,
high levels of college production are included in the profiles of those who d0. Perhaps more significantly these
players tend to have lower draft capital, or no draft capital at all, and they often take longer to develop into
fantasy assets.
But the best players at this position, and I have no doubt Justin Watson is one of those players, can take
advantage of opportunity when it comes along.
Watson fits the profile of a player who can break the mold; his potential at the next level is muted only by the
NFL’s willingness to see passed “pedigree”.
 Equanimeous St. Brown

Age: 21
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 214lbs
40 Time: 4.48
Yes/NO at ADP: No (too much downside no long baked into his ADP, but yes at 2.03)

Breakdown: Equanimeous St. Brown might be the most landing spot dependent wide receiver in this class.
Entering the NFL at age 21 is a good thing, in terms of hit rate, but a bad thing in terms of development.
 He has a few warts on his production history that stand out. Notably he averages out to be under productive
compared to most successful NFL WRs according to his Age Relative production. He also suffered a 9.2% drop in
MS yards in his final year. This beats the 10% threshold (which is where a final year difference becomes most
concerning) but it’s still notable since it means he now has only one year with above-average production.
That he still finished as high in production despite his last year, and doing virtually nothing in his age 18
season, tells us something of his potential however.
I’ve seen his production changes compared to Juju Smith-Schuster’s. But the two don’t compare at all in my
opinion. Juju was dominate (technically) at age 17 and 18. That kicks the stuffing out of anything on St. Browns
production profile. But if I was going to guess I’d say Brown has a lot of raw natural talent, and when that goes
to the NFL the range of outcomes is as broad as humanly possible.
 DaeSean Hamilton

Age: 23
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 203lbs
40 Time: 4.57
Yes/NO at ADP: Yes (but it’s narrow, mid third is okay though)

Breakdown: DaeSean Hamilton’s enters the NFL at 23 years having been delayed his freshman year with a sure
to a wrist injury. When he final had his freshman year it was to Breakout with 29% of the teams receiving yards.
 There is a better signal between age adjusted productions then year adjusted but 19 is a fine age to Breakout.
DaeSean did have an advantage in his rookie year that other freshmen didn’t have, however. Still, it’s enough to
make him more interesting than a lot of receivers who ended up below the average of successful NFL players.
Entering the NFL at age 23 with a Breakout age of 19 doesn’t do him any favors though. He ended with a
below-average College Dominator and it all balances out into a poor 26% Hit Rate indicator.
 Allen Lazard

Age: 22
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 225lbs
40 Time: 4.55
Yes/NO at ADP: Yes

Breakdown: A four-year consistent starter, Allen Lazard was remarkably productive and involved in his team’s
offence. He produced 17% of Iowa’s receiving touchdowns and yards in his age 18 season and went on to produce
over 30% every year after that.
 Despite posting 941 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns Allen Lazard saw a 6% drop in receiving yards in his
final year, at age 22. While the drop isn’t concerning on a rank moving scale it’s not something that shows up as
clearly in his rare stats either, so it’s worth mentioning.
He was expected by some to declare early for the NFL draft after his age-20 season. It’s a higher hit rate, so I
would have been in favor of it (he didn’t ask, surprisingly). But the Player who chose to play at Iowa, his
hometown school, also decided to stick around one last time to see if they could win.
His production is perhaps the most consistent in this class and he measured and tested well at the Combine
with a 4.55 40 time.
As a third-round pick, by ADP, right now I think he’s a very solid add.
 Daurice Fountain

Age: 22
Height: 6’1”
Weight 206lbs
40 Time: 4.56
Yes/NO at ADP: For free after the draft? Okay

Breakdown: If it wasn’t for Justin Watson I’d be making the case for Daurice Fountain. As it is, he’s 2nd for me in
less likely players to get opportunity.
 While Watson’s production is so good (so good) that I’m willing to consider him among the other 2 nd round
players, Fountain’s is good enough that I’ll be fading the worse prospects (in terms of production) from colleges
with more esteem in the third and fourth rounds for him.
Being fairly unproductive in his age-18 season isn’t a red flag, though as a player facing lower completion I
weight everything as more significant. He was extremely dominant in yards for two different years at age 19 and
21.
In his final he accounted for 36% of the teams receiving yards and touchdowns.
 Devonte Boyd

Age: 23
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 193lbs
40 time: 4.64
Conference: MWC
Yes/NO at ADP: Yes, I may end up being the only person who wants him
Breakdown: Devonte Boyd doesn’t much attention coming from the Mountain West Conference as other later
round prospects like Jordan Lasley and DaeSean Hamilton. But Boyd was able to sustain his age 19 freshman
Breakout through his college career.
While lower conference Breakouts should get a little more scrutiny I’m more interested in a player that
dominated his teams production at a lower conference then those from more established teams who barley
rested the average of successful NFL players.
The most worrying thing on his profile is an 11% drop in MS yards in his age 22 season. Boyd broken arm at
the end of his junior season also cost him an all-conference spot. But since he’s barley registering interesting
right now I’ll be more than happy to take that chance.
Coming into the NFL at age 23 is worrying – less so for a lower conference receiver where it’s more common.
His most troubling problem however is his 4.64 40-yard dash time. Even though I don’t think it’s a predictive
measurement there’s amble evidence it’s a good threshold stat and Boyd is on the wrong side of that threshold.
 Jordan Lasley

Age: 21
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 203lbs
40 Time: 4.5
Yes/NO at ADP: No, too much interest for a profile that is more AVG then above

Breakdown: Jordan Lasley may be the definition of while I look at the AVG Over/Under value. There’s enough on
his MS Yards chart to make me interesting but it’s hard to keep up that interest when you see it compared.
Despite his age 20 season coming close of the line, Lasley doesn’t meet the grade in of a Market Share standout.
 Only playing in 3 games in his first year, like many players he didn’t make much of an impact at 18. He became
progressively more involved and provided solid value for his team producing a greater share of yards than he
was given reception percentage.
He only played in 9 games in his final year and there is a chance his comparatively low ownership of the team’s
production despite the impressive looking yardage total (1264). He had numerous off the field issues for
example. But overall his profile is underwhelming.
 D.J. Chark

Age: 21
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 199lbs
40 Time: 4.34
Yes/NO at ADP: No (yes at anywhere in round 3)

Breakdown: DJ Chark is probably going to be valued by the NFL because speed is valued by the NFL. There’s
nothing terrible in his production profile, his College Dominator is slightly below average but acceptable, and a
few positive notes to go along with his Breakout age. I’m a little uncertain what to make of him to be honest. I
was all set to fade his hype after he ran a 4.34 at the NFL scouting combine. But the dynasty community seems
keen to that trick as his ADP and value has dropped into the second round in most places.
As one of 15 WR’s drafted in recent years from LSU he makes for a well-trained role player in the NFL. That
role is particularly valuable for teams, but not typically for fantasy. As the league becomes more and more role
orientated in its receiving game however a player with a solid 32% hit rate with deep speed isn’t terrible. His
large receptions to yards MS reflects his 21.9 YPC as a true deep threat at the college level. He looks like a
discounted Will Fuller.
One production note is that he is a very old 19-year-old Breakout prospect, to the point where he is listed as
a 20-year-old Breakout by Playerprofiler.com. This is worth noting since he walks a boundary just above a very
steep drop to a 20% hit rate at the NFL level for finishing in the top 24 in PRP scoring.
 Deontay Burnett

Age: 20 (OMG)
Height: 6’
Weight: 186lbs
40 Time: -
Yes/NO at ADP: No, needle is too hard to thread for his role rd4)

Breakdown: The overall Hit Rate of players with an age 19 college Breakout age is 39% for a 150-point PPR
season and 32% for a top24 finish. For players with a 30% of higher College Dominator Rating, like Burnette, it
jumps up to about 50% (40/81). But 75% of those hits were drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.
This drops Burnette’s likely Hit Potential from a 39 to a 25% based on his Breakout age alone.
Overall, he produced just over 2% more receptions then he did yards for USC. Combined with his slight frame
(6’0”, 170lbs) it’s fair to say he was not playing on the outside in College. He also didn’t take part in the NFL
combine so his athletic measurements have been slow in coming from his pro day results. In short, Burnett has
some positive signs on his profile but also remains somewhat of a mystery.
Burnett’s 161 yards in 20015 amounted to about 3 per cent of USC’s receiving yards. That wouldn’t be
unimportant normally, plenty of successful players don’t do much in their first year. But since Burnett was an
extremely young 18-year-old in 2015, I’ll consider that 3% market share a bonus. In 2016 he caught a combined
19% of USC’s touchdowns and yards, just under the threshold for a Breakout season at age 18. He did finally
Breakout in 2017 with 30% of the team’s touchdowns and yards. He enters the NFL at the age of 20, which as
DLF’s own Michael Zingone (@FFzinger) has been explain is a positive sign for any prospects potential
As a younger-than-average prospect I suspect he can probably handle the extra weight a little better than
most. Unfortunately, his pro day numbers don’t bear that out very well, as he is reported to have ran a 4.70 40-
yard dash. That’s a concerning number but given his attempt to change his body time and the fact the 40 time
doesn’t line up neatly with on field performance in agility or on field speed, it’s not a death nail either. Then again,
the NFL values speed, so it’s worth considering.
It’s going to be very hard to make the case for Burnett if he doesn’t receiver at least some amount of draft
capital and/or an interesting landing spot. His pro day results probably didn’t help with that.
 Jordan Villamin

Age:
Height:
Weight
40 Time:
Yes/NO
at ADP: No

Breakdown: Jordan Villamin is almost entirely unnoticed in the fantasy community. There is one lone ranker on
DLF that put his name on my radar, from there I crunched his raw stats into the chart above.
 He counting stats are not lofty even for Oklahoma, having never cresting 700 yards. But his market share was
enough in the Pac-12 that he might have make a few late round flyer lists.
So, he’s what you can’t find easily- he’s a 6’5” 220lbs receiver. He started playing at the age of 19 but was
under productive for that age group compared to successful NFL wide receiver sin market Share. He did pick it
up in year 2 at age 20 and was in fact over the average but was quickly back down below it at 21 and 22.
As recently as November there were articles written about his potential in the NFL. (Linked below) As it is
there isn’t much of a reason to quell that notion, however I’d have to argue against if based on his low and late
market share numbers.
Still, look for him to be remembered by someone at some point and become an “under the radar” sleeper
eventually.
 Steve Ishmael

Age: 22
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 212lbs
40 time: 4.59
Yes/NO at ADP: No (yes at 4.01)

Breakdown: Call him Ishmael, (because it’s way cooler than Steve). Is Steven Ishmael more like the Great White
Whale or the Captain in Moby Dick? I don’t know, of course. But based on a conversation I had with Mick Nartin
(@themicknartin) I’ve come around the possibility he could be more than his low yardage market share suggests.
 He has one of those profiles that make you wonder if you should ever trust a metric on the face of it without
digging into it every time. His College Dominator looks great till you realize it’s based on the same year. Using his
best and last year, the same thing, mean that his college dominator instead of production a number that creates
a sense of his production through his career instead just gives you the highlight reel.
Overall his production isn’t bad, it just wasn’t really good in yards until he was 22-years old and had a size,
experience and seniority on his side. The team didn’t choose to feature him any other year. However, he did
collect over 30% of the teams combined yards and touchdowns twice (at 19 and 22).
Sometimes it takes someone else to point out your own logic. Mick Nartin, who was a fan of Ishmael’s from
his Syracuse tape, pointed out that his age 19 breakout separates him from most players going in a similar ADP
range. He isn’t getting much notice especially because of his lack of a combine invite and the fact he ran a 4.59
(slightly over the threshold of 4.55 that even “combine faders” like myself should pay attention to).
Given his current draft value I think he makes for an interesting flyer in the mid to late fourth round.
 Shay Fields

Age: 21
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 187LBS
40 time: 4.51
Yes/NO
at ADP: No
Breakdown: Shay Fields caught some attention especially in his final year in 2017 at age 22 for those who like to
dig deep. He is close to a significant producer at every age, but never quote hits the mark.
As it is he still holds some outside potential based on his final year market share. But that potential should be
limited to keeping an eye out for him on waivers if he ever lands on an interesting depth chart.
Based on his minus grade in REC to Yards Differential I think he profiles as a productive slot receiver in college
which is always a role deeper stashes get associated with. Based on his entry age and lack of a combine invite, he
has a lower potential to find that role than someone like Trey Quinn in this class.
 AGE 20 BREAKOUTS

Age 20 Breakout rookies are the last big category in terms of Hit Rate. They top out at 20%, all rounds, for players
who have entered the NFL and become top 24 players. That’s out of a sample size of 90 players.
They should be considered less likely to hit than players with earlier Breakout ages. But again, remember
every round 3 rookie with this Breakout age could become a top 24 player this year and the trend would still
look roughly the same. This is just an overview that should be regarded in the face of significant evidence a player
can and or should surpass the average.
10 players have a Breakout age of 20 in the 2018 rookie class. This is about the same as the last 2 draft classes
although 2014 had 2015 had under five. Out of the 25 most recent players to enter the NFL with an age 20
Breakout value since 14, there have been 3 hits:
Nelson Agholor: 1st Round : Hit in year 3
Robby Anderson: Undrafted : Hit in year 2
 Michael Gallup

Age: 22
Height: 6’1”
Weight 205lbs
40 Time: 4.51
Yes/NO at ADP: Yes

Breakdown: If you want to get excite about a later Breakout receiver, I’ve got your guy right here. All trends are
made to be broken, but if you want to bet against the odds then take the player who has beaten them at every
turn, at every level, and keeps showing up the competition who had more chances. Michael Gallup is not someone
I’d bet against whether the odds are in or out of his favor. He played at community college for a year, and
dominated, before suffering a injury in his second seasons. This likely cost him a place at a higher rated school,
but Colorado was enough to put him on the map, thankfully.
I was among those excited about Kenny Golladay last year. I still an. One of the season is that Go9lladay was
able to dominate after making the jump from Northern Iowa to Northern Illinois in the MAC conference. But,
Golladay also sat for a year while he waited to take on his role on his new team, contributing to his later entry
age. Gallup didn’t take that year. Gallup also made that jump to the tune of a 40% market share of yards and 44%
of the team’s total receiving yards and touchdowns combined. He didn’t “make the leap” into the higher
completion, the higher competing spent his age 20 season trying to make the leap to meet him.
His drop-in production in his final season is ether concerning nor surprising. He increased his yardage total
from 1272 yards in 2016 to 1418 yards in 2017. IN the end the whole team just scored a slightly higher yardage
total, and I’m fine with believing that was because they were elevated by the presence of Michael Gallup himself
or any other story. Gallup owned the MAC conference for two years after fighting his way to get through
community college. His production is so high that even his later age and Breakout (the two highest weighted
parts of the Hit Indicator) can’t bring his score under a 50% on the Hit Indicator.
 Calvin Ridley

Age: 23
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 189 lbs
40 Time: 4.43
Yes/NO at ADP: No (yes in rd2)
Breakdown: I probably won’t be drafting Calvin Ridley in my rookie drafts. The Hit Rate for 20-year-old Breakout
age is considerably lower than 18 and 19, and if I have to choose I’ll take DJ Moore and Christian Kirk over him
every time. But, here’s the thing, there’s plenty of reason to think I’m wrong from a market share perspective.
We are often myopic in our opinions when we find something what works. Age and production work, but age
is so much easier to show a direct correlation to NFL success that adjusting for production is often overlooked.
If you follow the link to my mini-database for market share you can see every rookie since 2014 and their
market share breakdown. It also has every value I’ve created so far and mentioned in this report. Calvin Ridley,
according to the way I’ve calculated “Age Relative Production” is over the average for successful NFL players.
The MS Yards graph on his profile here shows a good portion of the story. Even though he started his career
late, he produced well above average *based on the age he was playing*.
The AVG Over/Under also shows this. It has flaws, as I mentioned in the breakdown of this value, but that’s a
big feather in his cap in my opinion. The Hit Rate Indicator also values him to the tune of a 49% resemblance to
successful NFL WRs based on age and MS production. It evaluates the age of a player and the age he had his best
production adjusted for his overall production using his college dominator.
In short, Ridley did everything he could do on the field to demonstrate an above average talent. But, because
he didn’t play younger, we can’t know nearly as well if it can translate to the NFL. In the same way we can’t know
if Antonio Callaway would have done if he’d been able to play in his third year.
Being above average at 20 is simply easier, but not easier than doing it at 18.
Between 2001 and 2015 90 players have entered the league with a Breakout age of 20 years old. Of those 90
players 20 started their career at age 27 like Ridley. Out of those 27 players only 6 finished in the top 24 in PPR
scoring.
BUT only 11 of those 25 players were drafted in the first 3 round of the NFL draft. Something we expect will
happen for Ridley. Of those 11 players 5 have finished in the top 24 in PPR scoring (45%).
-3 were first round picks: Korey Robinson, AJ Green, Michael Crabtree
-1 was a 2nd round pick: Jordy Nelson
-1 was a third-round pick – Mike Wallace
In other words, there is some evidence, in a very small outlier group, to suggest that when the NFL “goes big”
on a later Breakout player there is a higher expectation of them hitting then their typical round by Breakout age
hit rate would suggest.
 Cedrick Wilson

Age: 22
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 188lbs
40 Time: 4.55
Team: Boise
Yes/NO at ADP: Yes at 3.08

Breakdown: Cedrick Wilson is my “X-Files” flashback. “I want to believe”. I also don’t want the organizing I’ve
had to do to separate him from his father in my database to be for nothing.
 Yes, his father was an NFL wide receiver (drafted 2001) who either also broke out at 21 years old or their
values have been cross-referenced again and I have to go straighten that out again now.
Daddy Wilson didn’t start ‘til year 2 after being drafted in round 6. He never had a top 24 season or a 150-
point PPR season, but he did rack up 562 receiving yards by the end of year 3. I’m not a big fan of the “bloodlines”
argument, but it’s something.
Junior, as we’ll call him, took off the minute he stepped on the field at Boise State after moving from Coffeyville
Community College. He broke out with 29% of the teams receiving yards and a combined 31% of the team’s yards
and touchdowns at age 20.
So why Gallup over Wilson? From a pure production standpoint, Wilson wasn’t quite as impressing as Gallup,
scoring on average 1% less each year over. He also has a much high REC-YD’s differential despite this. That
indicates he was more of a down-the-field receiver whereas I think versatility, while trying to make yourself
useful to an NFL team, pays off. Role players are important, of course, so it doesn’t hurt Wilson so much as give
Gallup a broader range of potential I’m more likely to value.
 Richie James

Age: 22
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 183lbs
40 Time: 4.48
Yes/NO at ADP: Maybe? If I must reach at all I’m out. Yes at 4.03
Breakdown: What Is it with this class and late starting MS Yards dominance? Richie James spent time play
quarterback in high school but moved over to receiver before staring as a 19-year-old freshman in 2015. He
immediately dominated in yards to the tune of 33% of the team’s market share and 25% of the team touchdowns.
That spree continues in his age-21 season where he combined for 34% of the combined team receiving yards
and touchdowns at age 22. A broken collar bone cut his final season short to five games and drags has AVG
Over/Under to -1.1%.
Given his injury it’s fair to say he’d be a discount Calvin Ridley in terms of Market Share had he stayed healthy,
albeit one from a CUSA conference with lower competition.
James’ other impressive production marks include his 554 rushing yards on 61 attempts during his time at
Middle Tennessee. His versatility is a positive sign for him finding a way to stick on a roster and his Market Share
make him as good a bet as any 20-year-old Breakout from a lower conference putting his Hit Rate grade at 40%
seems fair and his Breakout Age Hit rate at a standard 20% for all rounds of the NFL draft.
 Keke Coutee

Age: 21
Height: 5’10”
Weight: 181lbs
40 Time: 4.43
Yes/NO at ADP: No, I don’t’ see it

Breakdown: Keke Coutee gets high marks for the market share he was eventually able to produce at age 20. In
2017 he owned a combined total of touchdowns and yards that accounted for 30% of Texas Tech’s receiving
numbers. He gets low marks for this early production at age 18 and 19 however.
 Hi age entering the league helps to balance out his Hit Rate Indicator, since he will be 21 in his first season in
the NFL.
I want to like him more than I do because of what I’ve heard about him from film analysists I trust. I also think
the fact he produced a much greater Yard Per Target (it was Jared Smola who first pointed this way of evaluating
efficiency for Rookie WRS – follow him @SmolaDS) then everyone else on his team is significant. Overall, I don’t
mind him as a late round flyer based on his final season numbers but based on his overall profile I can’t say I’d
reach for him above his current ADP.
 Auden Tate

Age: 21
Height: 6’5”
Weight: 228lbs
40 Time: 4.68
Yes/NO at ADP: No

Breakdown: Auden Tate seems like a solid receiver, but for fantasy I think he profiles like he’s destined to be a
roster clogger-the unwise hold onto for too long. He never crested the average for successful wide receivers in
MS yards, and despite an average College Dominator I can’t see any way he dominated in College.
 In 2017 he finally broke out with 34% of his team’s combined yards and touchdowns. At the height of his age
and experience advantage he was just about able to crawl over that boundary. But, even then, his team didn’t
provide him more than 19% of their total targets. If Texas Tech didn’t feel the end to feature him it’s unlikely an
NFL offence will find a cause for it.
Hit rate Indicator reflects his overall average profile mixed with his entry age of 21 years old. But I’d let Tate
take someone else’s week-5 drop instead.
 Cam Phillips

Age: 22
Height: 6’0”
Weight: 199 lbs
40 Time: 4.84
Yes/NO at ADP: Maybe, yes at 4.05 in deep enough league

Breakdown: Meet my “Lance Lenoir” of the 2018 draft class. Don’t know who Lance Lenoir is? Check the link
below. I have a soft spot for relatively productive players who have zero draft capital, and there is a subset of
players (Tanner Gentry, lance Lenoir, Pharoh Cooper – the list goes on) that meet this criterion but also have
zero athletic ability. I stash them in very deep leagues and cross my fingers that one day I will find the next Willie
Snead.
2018 is not likely to be that day. I do like Cam Phillips’ profile, he’s someone who was reasonably productive
young and eventually did crest the Age Relative trend line in MS Yards. But the hit rate on this sub-set of players
is so low I wouldn’t recommend joining me in this waiting room of damned “taks”. They don’t even have any
good magazines in there to kill the time with.
 Simmie Cobbs

Age: 22
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 220 lbs
40 Time: 4.64
Yes/NO at ADP: No

Breakdown: Simmie Cobbs chose to play in Indiana when he found out Purdue, who he’d committed to, wanted
to play him on defense. I can admire a player who chooses to go where he can do what he loves and not what a
team thinks he should be best at. As a 6’3” 220lbs man now, his size probably reflects a lot of why a team wanted
to change his position. Unfortunately, he couldn’t do much in his age-19 season in the Big Ten conference and
after his ate age-20 Breakout he had to miss a year due to a season ending ankle injury.
What we’re left with is a player who dominated at a later age as an immense size specimen playing against
mostly younger, less experienced players when he was effective on the field. While I root for every player to do
well in the NFL there’s little on Simmie Cobs profile to suggest much hope of him becoming fantasy relevant. That
by no means suggests he won’t have a fruitful NFL career, of course.
 Dante Pettis

Age: 22
Height: 6’1”
Weight: 186lbs
40 Time: -
Yes/NO at ADP: Never!
(for me, 3.02 more reasonably)

Breakdown: Do you ever feel like there’s a conspiracy to troll you? I just don’t get Dante Pettis. I’ve seen him
ranked at some very high spots by people I respect, and I just can’t find a thing to like based on what he
accomplished in college. There’s not a player in the league or out of it I’d root against, every success story is
another way for me to score fantasy points in a selfish way, and watching good football is the heart of why we all
like the game anyway. So, if Pettis hits, I won’t be sorry. But based on what I know to be relevant for projecting
fantasy relevance in the NFL, there’s no reason to think he can. None. Not even a little bit.
He started off at age 18 being mildly productive for Washington with 9% of the team’s yards and working as
the fourth wide receiver on the depth chart in terms of raw counting stats. At age 19 he worked his way up to 3rd
on the depth chart, becoming even more mildly productive with 12% of the team’s yards (doubling his raw
production from over 200 yards to over 400 with John Ross out for the season). At 20 he broke out, as second on
the depth chart behind a now healthy John Ross, doubling his raw counting stats again, to over 800 whole
receiving yards, for 22% of the teams receiving yards.
After Ross left for the NFL. Pettis finally ascended to the top of the depth chart, scored fewer yards then the
year before, and still caught a larger 26% of the team receiving yards, because the whole pie was smaller because
no one was left on the team who could produce at the same level.
He was always below the average of successful NFL receivers, and he progressed gradually up the depth chart
as he aged, as with any replacement level player, improving his yardage total through volume rather than the
team choosing to feature him in any specific way.
Washington did not think Pettis was a player worth featuring in the Pac-12. I don’t see a reason to think he
would be that in the NFL.
 J'Mon Moore

Age: 22
Height: 6’3”
Weight: 207 lbs
40 Time: 4.60
Yes/NO
at ADP: No

Breakdown: Looking at J’Mon’s raw stats I was reminded of Rashad Greene, who also had two lower total years
before posting two 100-yard seasons. The only difference was that Greene did it younger and his yardage
accounted for more of his year’s total yards. When I looked back at Greene’s SM Yards Graph, it got worse. Green
was actually right on the trend line at age 18 and 19 with 17% and 2% of his team’s total yards. Looking back his
raw yardage was better as well, it was just the pattern that looked familiar. Of course, Greene also played in the
ACC a Moore was in the SEC.
This was the best thing I could find to say about J’Mon’s production for Missouri. Even when he was 21 and
22 years old and the dominate force on his teams he wasn’t as dominate as the average successful NFL player on
their college teams.
Players do become relevant with a AVG over/under of -5%. Most recently Michael Thomas who broke out in
his first year after being drafted in the second round, but also Brandon Marshall who broke out in his second
year and was drafted in the fourth. Wes Welker and Doug Baldwin (both undrafted) also broke out but it took
them 4 and 5 seasons respectively to do it, Terrell Pryor (undrafted) also broke out after 6 seasons, and James
Jones after 6 seasons (drafted in the 3rd round).
I’d bet against Moore following the very narrow path to become Michael Thomas or Brandon Marshall and
while Welker and Baldwin hold some hope for Moore who did test well in Agility drills, but poorly in speed drills,
both took long enough drafting them in their rookie years would have been folly. Terrell Pryor was a quarterback,
so I’ll ignore him. James Jones had third round draft capital. All of them did enter the league at age 23, so Moore
has that going for him as a spry 22-year-old with a Hit Rate of 20%, round agnoistic, as a 20-year-old Breakout
player.
 Wyatt Demps

Age:
Height:
Weight
40 Time:
Yes/NO
at ADP: No, think you’d cut him before he did anything
Breakdown: This class is especially heavy with late Breakout players who dominate their teams’ market share.
However, the plethora of players like Wyatt Demps who improve gradually over time as they get older and earn
or targets isn’t unusual. This is the typical career arc of a College Player.
The team is not singling them out as particularly worth of extra targets at a young age. They are learning and
growing and becoming bigger and stronger. They are more experienced in the offence and so they get more
targets. Targets equal more yards. It’s not a huge mystery.
Demps was a fine college player, but nothing about his profile suggests he will be relevant for fantasy in the
NFL.
 AGE 21 BREAKOUTS
Age 21 is when the numbers get a little less trustworthy. There are fewer and fewer example of college breakouts
after the age of 20. Also, there are fewer example sf NFL hits to any degree.
Outside of the safety of Breakout age I’m going to look for several things.
1. Extremely high market share
2. Reasonable evidence of special talent in the less predictive elements of their profile (rec-yds
difference etc.)
3. The number of draft able NFL players they had on their team with them
4. Athleticism because a lot more important to me; it’s less predictive but they are already looking like
outlier to succeed so I’ll look for anything that might help them find a role or opportunity in the NFL

The odds are already against them. So they have to stand out in other ways.
 Anthony Miller

Age: 23
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 201 lbs
40 Time: 4.55
Team:
Yes/NO at ADP: No, yes at 3.03
Breakdown: It makes me nervous when a player I like with an older than ideal Breakout age, gets called out for
being “strong” on tape. Why? Because they almost all do. My first thought is “well, of course they look strong-
they are grown men who work out a lot, facing teenagers.”
There is a mass of contradictions on Anthony Miller’s production profile. I can see opinions vary on him so
much. He is a late Breakout, with a terrible Breakout age. And yet, like Calvin Ridley, it’s impossible to ignore that
when he was on the field at Memphis he produced at the level of an NFL starter. Without knowing who he would
or could have been at 18 and 19 I must lower him in my ranks, but his overall production profile is worth valuing.
He produced 17% of the team’s receiving yards in his first season at age 19, and 20 just missing a 20-year
Breakout age because of a correspondingly low 17% of team receiving touchdown. In his age-21 season he caught
his stride and took over the offence earning 31% of receptions and producing 36% of their yards as well as 41%
of touchdowns.
Ultimately Miller has to fall to the wayside because of the dominance age he has in Breakout rates but in a
class full of later Breakout players miller is one I won’t mind taking a swing on if he falls to the right spot. Still I
will be heavily influence by the amount of draft capital he gets. Outside being drafted in the first 2 rounds, 21-
year-old Breakouts becoming top 24 players is almost impossible.
 Trey Quinn

Age: 22
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 203lbs
40 Time: 4.55
Yes/NO
at ADP: Yes (at 3.10)

Breakdown: From my DLF article on Trey Quin: “It’s a bird, it’s a plane, no wait, it’s another ‘Wes Welker’
archetype!” To begin at the end, Trey Quinn has some positive signs on his resumé from his final year. But he was
also inefficient in some concerning areas for a player who will have to walk a very narrow path to become fantasy
relevant.”
Based on his current ADP I think he’s a fine value (n the late 3rd or fourth round). But this is heavily dependent
on landing spot. This age-21 production was impressive enough, a clear 10%+ above the trend line for his age,
that he makes for one of the more interesting age-21 prospects.
However, I think we would be a in for a long wait while he looks for opportunity and tries to develop as a
player having had little to no chance to work at it from ages 18 to 20. For that reason, I’m more likely to side with
an RB if one is in the same range I’m interested in. But of the WRs in this are he is one of the more interesting
prospects.
 Ricky Jeune

Age: 24
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 213lbs
40 Time: 4.61
Yes/NO at ADP: No

Breakdown: It’s not that he didn’t play earlier in his life, it’s that we don’t know how he would fair without the
advantage of age and experience against the same competition. Past examples suggest this is because he’s not as
good as his raw stats would suggest.
 Ricky Jeune is old, even for most 21-year-old Breakout candidates. He entered the NFL at age 24. I doubt there
will be many situations I’d find his potential interesting in a rookie draft.
 Jester Weah

Age: 23
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 210 lbs
40 Time: 4.43
Team: Pittsburg
Yes/NO at ADP: No, and never
Breakdown: Jester Weah’s dip in production in 2017 is often explained by the team’s passing game going
downhill after his junior year. But he can’t hide from Market Share. Lower totals or not, Weah earned less yards
in relation to his team at age 21. While the dip in production isn’t enough to warrant attention by itself, the fact
he wasn’t able to earn enough playing time until he was 20 is a major red flag.
Weah’s profile reads like the worst case for a higher-level producer. He ran a sub 4.5 time which will also get
him noticed. But as for myself I’m out, I’d rather take my late round picks elsewhere.
 Deon Cain

Age: 23
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 210 lbs
40 Time: 4.43
Team: Pittsburg
Yes/NO at ADP: No

Breakdown: A standard good player’s career. We’re hunting unicorns and Deon Cain doesn’t fit that mold. If
you’re looking for an arbitrage Dante Pettis, maybe?
 **Braxton Berrios**

Age: 22
Height: 5’9”
Weight: 184 lbs
40 Time: 4.49
Team: Miami
Yes/NO at ADP: Nooooooooooooooooo!
I was asked to include Braxton Berrios in the Catch Report, and I’m happy to round out the number of WRs to
40. But I don’t really know what to say about his production. It wasn’t great. He comes in dead last on the Post
Draft Hit rate indicator and he was bottom 2 in the pre-draft Hit rate indicator. He never approached the average
production of successful NFL wide receivers whether I work the trend line by 800 yard season or top 24 PPR
finishes.
 AGE 22 BREAKOUTS
At this point it should come as no surprise to you that players who break out at age 22 are less likely to succeed
for fantasy in the NFL. Outside of very high draft capital, I don’t think there is an instance when I would seek to
draft one.
There are five players in this year’s class with Breakout age of 22. None of them look like they will be drafted
in the first round.
So…here they are…I guess.
 Marcell Ateman

Age: 23
Height:
Weight:
40 Time:
Yes/NO At ADP: That’s a No from me, Cotton

Breakdown: Marcell Ateman may get some popularity this year owing to the fact he broke out late and may have
taken away some of James Washington’s production in 2017. But I have some problems with that. For one thing,
Washington’s loss of production wasn’t nearly significant. For another, Ateman’s market share of yards still
didn’t crest the trend line even with over 1000 raw yards.
I’m going to avoid his ADP like it could bite me.
 Byron Pringle

Age: 24
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 205 lbs
40 Time: 4.46
Yes/NO at ADP: No

Breakdown: Would I draft Byron Pringle for the potential his name brings in team name options? Yes, yes I would.
 But, since I can legally make puns in my team name without drafting him, I’m just going to do that…Welcome
to, “All the Pringle Ladies.”
As you know (re: Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson) I give credit for not skipping a step when moving up from
having dominated at the community college level. Moving from Kansas Butler Community college to the Big-12
is a good sign, as is his skill in the return game. But it’s not enough to swallow a 21 Breakout age, and a 24-entry
age.
If I were going to take a shot at a 22-year-old Breakout In this class, despite his late market share, it wouldn’t
be Pringle.
 Korey Robertson

Age: 22
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 210 lbs
40 Time: 4.56
Yes/NO at ADP: No
Breakdown: A late-breaking., perfectly average College Career. That he made it over the trend line in his last year
is admirable but doesn’t move the needle for me much at all, to be honest. Robertson seems like he was a talented
college player, but there’s not enough on his profile to predict that he could be fantasy relevant to any great
degree.
 Darren Carrington

Age: 23
Height: 6’2”
Weight: 199lbs
40 Time: 4.83
Yes/NO at ADP: No

Breakdown: If I were going to take a shot on a player with a 22-year-old Breakout age in this class? It would
probably be Carrington. His market share is solid enough at every age that I could believe he would return decent
numbers if he fell into a role because of injuries or being on the Jets. But I can’t really say it’s more than Korey
Robertson, what last crested the trend line once at age 22.
His Breakout age is poor in terms of Hit Rate outside of the third round I’d still have my doubts about him
reaching 150 PPR points in a single season (WR3). But nothing’s a 100% hit rate, even hit rates (get it?).
So, if I have a space to fill on my roster with a need for WR in the last round of a (6 round) rookie draft, with
only these players left on the board, Carrington’s the one I’d chose.
 Jaleel Scott

Age: 23
Height:
Weight:
40 Time:
Team:
Yes/NO at ADP: No
Breakdown: Jaleel Scott was unable to demand a high usage and didn’t produce particularly well with the usage
he did get.
He looks to have improved and has been a fine college player but nothing on his profile suggests he’ll be one
of the few who become fantasy relevant in the NFL.
 TRENDS AND VALUES

Not all Markets Share is created equally. Production matters, and it matters more than anything else. But early
production matters most.

See also:

- https://www.playerprofiler.com/article/college-dominator-rating-wide-receiver-nfl-draft-advanced-
stats-metrics-analytics-profiles/
- https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2018/03/03/age-rookie-wide-receiver-prospects-
whippersnapper/
 Age Relative Production

For every player, I’ve included a graph comparing their percentage of yards for each year in college by age. I’ve
also found the average production of every successful NFL player in college and created trend line to provide
that production context.
This is largely an extension of the work of others. Chiefly the work of John Moore at Rotoviz.com.

Converting that back into the real world. This tells us how valuable they were to their team in college, compared
to how valuable players who have already made it in the NFL were to their teams. This is the meat of what has
proven useful and predictive for projecting rookies in the NFL.
The main trend line (in red) represents the trend from all players who have scored a 150-point PPR fantasy
season from 2008 to 2017.
The Red lines something new I’ve started playing with. It’s based on all players who have scored a 200-point
PPR seasons from 2000 to 2017.
The raw stats to find qualifying players were populated from ffstatistics.com/app and pro-football-
reference.com.

See also:
- https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2018/03/04/rookie-wide-receiver-ranks-judged-by-age-sensitive-
production/
 Breakout Ages

Frank DuPont and Shawn Siegele first broke down the age at which a player holds a significant percentage of a
team’s production as a Breakout Age. They published it on RotoViz.com. Since then it has been added to by a
great number of analysts including the fork of Jon Moore.
I get questions about how I calculate Breakout age often because it often differs from one site to another a
little. Notably Playerprofiler.com is one of the easiest and best places to get this information.
I combine the Yards MS and TD MS and divide by 2 for each age. If a player has 20% of this teams Yards and
Touchdowns in a single season he has “Broken out”. I calculate the age a player is at the start of the college season,
I think it’s more standard to use the end.
I use total yards and touchdowns for the season. This is likely one difference between my database and other
sources. It is, I think, more descriptive but less agile. Sometimes per game numbers are used instead of totals to
adjust for games a player misses. I don’t do that.
So, a player that has a combined yards and touchdown MS in his age-19 season has a Breakout age of 9. I don’t
calculate the decimal place.
It’s incredibly easy to create an essential and accurate prioritization of prospects using market share and
Breakout Age. A player is defined as having broken out in college when he owns (produces) 20% of a team’s
combined yards and touchdowns. This is a test threshold that indicates a player has become integral to the
functioning of an offence. When, and at what age, the player crosses this threshold is one of the most predictive
and informative stats about who that player can be in the NFL.
For example, draft capital is one of the most accepted and predictive values for fantasy success. 55% of all
NFL players drafted in the first round have reached 800 or more total receiving years in the NFL (drafted since
2001). Only 25% of players drafted in round 2 have reached the same mark.
On the other hand, 36% of players with a Breakout Age of 18 have reached the same mark and 36% of them have
reached 1000 yards in the NFL as well.

Out of 49 players with an 18-year-old Breakout Ages only 21 were drafted in the 1st round (46%). Despite
making up only 10% of the player pool 18-year-old Breakouts account of 48% of the Breakout players to reach
800 yards and 36% of the players who broke out with over 100 yards in the NFL since 2001. MS production can
help us identify 1st round busts and 3rd round steals.
I’ll often refer to the percentage chance different Breakout years provide based on draft capital as well. That
is all based on the way my database broke down when I analyzed the hit rate of players from 2001 to 2015. Here
is the table summation.
 Over/Under the AVG

One value I reference when trying to out a player’s production in context is their “over/under the AVG”. This is a
simple way of references what their production graph looks like without having to go back and look at it. I simply
take the average production of successful NFL WR’s by age from the player production by age. I then average the
results.

This gives me a simple value instead of a graph or long description to represent how a player compares to the
trend line. This value can be found for players form 2014-2017 on the mini-database I’ve included in the links
section. It has the data from every rookie player I have collected from 2014-2018 sheet.
 No only can it give us a decent overview of class as a whole when compared to passed draft classes, but it also
compares well to other metrics in predictivness.
From 2008 to 20015 Above/Below had a 10% correcltaion to the number of top 24 PPR seasons in the NFL,
whereas Draft Capital scored 11%. If those low numbers worry you, wlecome to NFL analytics! But I think we
can improve the number if I was mor ejucious with my sample, using only drafted WR college production ranges
with 5% of NFL draft capitla in terms of r squared redictivness in motst of the regressions I’ve run no matter
what the criteria. But in eveything I’ve tested production and draft round have always bee the two most
predictive values. The fact Above/Below shows some comparison to draft round in any sample means it has at
least some value as a stand aline number in my opinion.
 Production Dips and Losses

There is often a lot of concern when a player sees a dip in production in their final year. Equanimeous St. Brown
and Courtland Sutton are two players this year who are often mentioned in this way for 2018. So, I looked at
every successful WR since 2008 (at least one 150-Point PPR season) and calculated the difference between their
last and second to last seasons.
Below is a sample of that list:

The most relevant trend I found was in the distribution of player’s final year difference.
The majority of successful WRs suffered less than a 10% change in their production in their final year. But the
divide between those that increased and decreased their production was about even. 30 players on the list
increased their yards by less than 10% and 24 decreased by less than 10%.
On the other hand, 32 out of the 86 players on the list (37%) saw a greater than 10% change in their
production in their final year.
My conclusion is that only a change over 10% really seemed to matter. Very few successful NFL players, by this
definition, saw a 10% or greater drop in their final year. On the other hand, 29% of the successful WRs saw a
10% increase. That’s a significant enough percentage to suggest that an increase of over 10% is a good sign for a
payers NFL career.
In the same vein, a drop of less than 10% in MS Yards can probably be ignored. In those cases, the player’s
comparison to the average trend line is a lot more relevant than their final season drop.
Only four players in the 2018 draft class saw more than a 10% drop in 2017.

While Sutton does turn up on this list, I’m not overly concerned. I haven’t been able to dive into this value very
far and the fact that 8% of successful WRs have had a drop greater than 10% means it’s not a clear threshold cut
off. I think his expect draft capital and production is enough to obscure this negative. Overall, I’m more interested
in a player’s early production and his comparison to the age relative trend line.
16 players in this class saw more than a 10% increase in 2017.
I also took a look at how this relates to the NFL season at which each successful player broke out with a 150-
point PPR season in the NFL.

While I think this value could prove useful at predicting NFL success for a rookie prospect, right now all I can say
for us is that there is little correlation on the face of it.
The R Squared value of 0.11% between their final year production change and the year in which they broke out
says this clearly. They aren’t connected.
 CONCLUSION
So that’s it. I’ll update this book after the draft, so be sure to check back in. I have a rankings model that
incorporates draft capital so I’m going to include those results in the post-draft update as well.
I don’t know what else to say, it just seemed like a book deserves a better end then the last sentence you
happen to write.
The class is strong overall. There are more players over the average in age relative production ten have been
n the last 3 years. However, the high notes are dulled. I think therefore we always hear “it’s a weak class, but…”
every time someone starts talking about it.
Ultimately, I think it feels weak, or we are trying to describe, the lack of clear NF level Dominant receivers.
But if we adjust our sights to recognize that any class that can produce two or three fantast relevant players at
any position would be a win. In fact, wide receiver has been so barren I think we’ll be happy if just one makes it.
The 2018 NFL draft is set to be one of the most interesting to watch that we’ve seen in a while. Ad that’s saying
something for one of the most exciting events in sports. I don’t think wide receiver is going to be the focus of
most watching, in a strong running back and quarterback class set to see half a dozen trade sin the first round.
But I think there are several players who could surprise this year, and with the lack of production form the
position recently, perhaps we see a few surprises there to.
Good luck, have fun, let me now if I can help. Most importantly remember to breath when Cleveland takes
Josh Allen at number 1 overall. We’ll get through this together.