Results of plagiarism analysis from 2021-12-10 06:47 UTC

77.9% T B21021_BAL AM URUGAN_EF M .d o cx

Date: 2021-12-10 06:46 UTC

 All sources 1 7  Internet sources 1 7

 indianexpress.com/article/explained/explainspeaking-current-challenges-and-the-future-threats-facing-the-indian-economy-7378895/
[0] 77.6% 76 matches
 1 documents with identical matches

 www.ijcrt.org/papers/IJCRT2107075.pdf
[2] 76.6% 74 matches
 1 documents with identical matches

 www.nextias.com/current-affairs/28-06-2021
[4] 44.7% 42 matches
 1 documents with identical matches

 chanakyaiasacademy.com/daily-current-affairs-for-28th-june-2021/
[6]
37.9% 42 matches

 www.ncaer.org/uploads/photo-gallery/files/1609249580MYR 2020 Report.pdf

[7]
4.9% 9 matches

 www.livemint.com/economy/ncaer-calls-for-fiscal-push-projects-growth-at-8-4-10-1-for-fy22-11624632435516.html
[8]
0.5% 3 matches

 indianexpress.com/article/explained/explainspeaking-how-covid-19-impacted-central-and-state-government-finances-in-2020-7327525/
[9]
1.0% 3 matches

 economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/ncaer-pegs-april-june-quarter-growth-at-11-5/articleshow/83866877.cms
[10]
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 services.india.gov.in/service/ministry_services?cmd_id=2339&ln=en
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 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_Statistics_and_Programme_Implementation
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 mospi.gov.in/web/mospi/annual-report-of-ministry
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 www.indiawaterportal.org/author/ministry-statistics-and-programme-implementation-mospi
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 www.livemint.com/news/india/gdp-growth-rate-for-2019-20-revised-downwards-to-4-11611925568343.html
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 aiaso.co.in/mospi/
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 m.economictimes.com/news/economy/policy/rbi-calls-for-deep-seated-wide-ranging-reforms-for-sustainable-growth/articleshow/77736943.cms
[17] 0.6% 1 matches
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 mospi.nic.in/role-mospi-sdgs
[19]
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 mospi.gov.in/documents/213904/0/SEP_Final.pdf/228bdf01-91b8-8358-7984-b3fe1216511b?t=1595413363584
[20]
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11 p ag es, 1711 wo rd s

 A very light text-color was detected that might conceal letters used to merge words.

Plag L evel: 77.9% selected / 80.2% o verall

76 matches from 21 sources, of which 21 are online sources.

Settin g s

Data policy: Compare with web sources, Check against my documents

Sensitivity: Medium

Bibliography: Consider text

Citation detection: Reduce PlagLevel

Whitelist: --
Name BALAMURUGAN M
Batch PGCBM(Batch-40)
SMS ID TB21021
Topic Indian Economy:
Current Challenge and the future
threat
Faculty Professor- Vishwa_Ballabh

Sources Referred for this Assignment:

✓ “Newspapers: Indian Express web”
[7]
✓ “National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) Economic Review”
[0]
✓ “Data from Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)”

[0]
“
 Indian Economy
Current challenges and the future threats

Objective
[0]
✓ To analyse the Challenges on Indian Economy due to COVID-19.
✓ To analyse the Future threats on Indian Economy

In this Topic, I would like to present, what is the current challenges facing the Indian economy
and where are the future threat lies.
[0]
The end of any financial year generally throws up many economic analysis. Last Month, the
RBI released the newsletter, which provides the RBIs assessment of how our Indian economy
[0]
is placed in this FY. Eventhough hardly any firm/Person knows as much about our Indian
economy compared to RBI, the more informative analysis were carried out by the National
Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) & also they released their Quarter-Economic
Review and Study.
[0]
They find innovative ways to plot the status of our Indian economy through this pandemic. At
a time when other official sources of data hurt big gaps and insufficiencies, sleuths at NCAER
found the peculiar ways to measure the extent of economic disturbance due to Covid-19. As
early in December2020, It had properly predicted that the full year GDP_growth will be
[2]
minus7.3% , number that the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)
arrived at only by May31 2021, As such, it makes sense to pay attention to NCAER's forecast
in the rouse of the second wave of Covid.
 Challenges:
A. 2years of GDP growth been lost
Below chart provide us an understanding that how our Indian Economy has been hit.
[0]
If we look at the green bar,It show us final value of India GDP which is measured in trillions of
rupee (left hand side scale)
[0]
In 2019-20FY, India GDP was Rs 146 trillions. In-other way, we have produced goods
[0]
and services worth Rs 146 trillions that year. Then in the last financial year 2020-21, it fell to
Rs 135 trillions. That means it the fall of negative 7.3%.
[0]
 In the current financial year — that is, in 2021-22 — the GDP is expected to grow back
[0] [0]
to Rs 146.0 trillions after registering a growth of 8.3%. This would mean that, in terms of
[0]
overall economic production, India would have lost two full years of growth. For instance, if
[0]
there was no Covid-19 disruption and India's grew by even 6.% in both these years, the total
GDP would have reached the level of Rs 164 trillions — that is, Rs 18 trillion more than where
India is likely to end up now.
[0]
There is a chance that India might grow by 10% this year, instead of 8%, and in that
case, India's GDP would go up to Rs 149 trillions but even so, India would be far off from
where it could have been without Covid.
[0]
The red line, which maps the growth rate of GDP in percentage terms and corresponds
to the scale on the right-hand side of the Chart which gives an impression of a “V-shaped”
[0]
recovery. But in terms of actual production,the economy will only manage to recover the
ground it lost last year.
 [ 6 ]
B. Retail and wholesale inflation are trending up
At a time when economic growth has taken a hit and recovery is muted due to the second
[0]
Covid wave, India is also facing ever-increasing prices. CHARTS 2 and 3 provide a break up of
how retail and wholesale inflation has behaved over the past couple of years.
[0]
Headline retail inflation, the read line in CHART 2, is the rate at which prices increase for retail
[0]
consumers like you. This inflation rate stayed above the RBI's comfort zone (2% to 6%)
[0]
between November 2019 and November 2020. But, after a brief period of martial relief, it has
again crossed the 6%-mark in May this year.

[0]

Rate at which prices increase for retail consumers

[0]
The other crucial line to look at is the orange dotted line. It shows the core inflation — it is
[0]
calculated by taking away the price rise in fuel and food items. The fact that even this inflation
rate has remained consistently close to RBI's upper limit, shows that it is not just a matter of
[0]
petrol and diesel prices being very high or vegetables and fruit prices rising too fast. The
[0]
common Indian is witnessing a fast rise in prices across the board.
 [0] [0]
What about wholesale prices? CHART 3 provides the answer. For a long time, the wholesale
[0]
prices were not increasing too fast. But starting from January onwards, that trend, too, has
[0] [0]
worsened. In May, WPI inflation was nearly 13%. In other words, wholesale prices were rising
at the rate of 13%.

[0]

For a long time, the wholesale prices were not increasing too fast
 [0]
3: Poor credit offtake in the commercial sector
The biggest engine of GDP in the Indian economy is the expenditure that Indians undertake
[0]
in their private capacity. This demand for goods and services — be it in the form of a new car
or a haircut or a new laptop or a family vacation — is what accounts for more than 55% of all
GDP in a year.
[0]
Even before Covid, the Indian economy had reached a stage where the common man was
[0]
holding back this expenditure. The first Covid wave made that trend worse with people either
[0]
losing jobs or salaries being reduced. The second Covid wave has compounded the problem
further because now everyone is bothered about the high health expenses.
[0]
In the absence of consumer spending, the country's businessmen — both big and small — are
holding back new investments and refusing to seek new loans.
[0]
CHARTS 4 shows how bank credit to the commercial sector has plummeted in just the last
[0]
two years. CHART 5 shows how the percentage of sampled firms seeking loans has just
collapsed.

[0]

Above CHARTS[0] shows how bank credit to the commercial sector has plummeted in just the
last two years.
 These essentially imply that businesses are not very hopeful of increased demand in the near
term.

CHART 5 shows how the percentage of sampled firms seeking loans has just collapsed.
[0]
4: Inadequate spending by the government
Given that domestic consumers are holding back consumption and domestic
businesses are holding back investments (the second-biggest engine of GDP growth), it was
incumbent on the third-biggest engine of India's GDP growth — that is, the government — to
spend more and pull the economy out of the current rut.
[0]
But as the green bars in CHART 6 show, the Indian government has been stingy about
[0]
spending more. The green bars show the total expenditure (in terms of a per cent of GDP).
[0]
After being forced to spend more in 2020-21, the government has actually pulled back (as a
[0]
proportion of GDP) in 2021-22. It is for this reason that its deficit will fall in FY22 as against
[0]
FY21.
The green bars in CHART 6 show how the Indian government has been stingy about spending
more
[0]
But this move is proving to be counterproductive for India's economic revival. The NCAER
[0]
review makes the following remark: “Unfortunately, an inexplicably contractionary fiscal
policy in 2021–22, sharply reducing the deficit, will delay recovery.”
 [0]
Future threats:
There are several ways in-which India's economic recovery may become even more difficult.
Following are our prediction as per present trend.

[0]
1: The slow pace of vaccination and a possible third Covid wave
By now it is clear that there is no economic recovery unless India gets a significant majority of
[0]
its population vaccinated. If the pace of vaccination continues to lag, there is the possibility
of a third wave, which may bring with it another round of disruption.
[0]
It is also very important to understand that even the possibility of a third wave is quite
[0]
dangerous for economic recovery. That's because the increased uncertainty further worsens
the trends of consumers holding back consumption and businesses holding back new
[0]
investments. This is more so because the people's resilience and ability to deal with the
adverse effects of Covid has also been coming down.

[0]
2: Fiscal policy hitting a barrier
Between Fiscal policy (the ease with which one can take a loan and the interest rate one has
to pay on new loans) and Monetary policy (which has to do with government's spending),
[0]
most of the heavy lifting towards achieving economic revival has been done by the RBI. As
mentioned earlier, the government has not been expanding its fiscal policy by as much as
[0]
many expected it to. Indeed, it was largely left for the RBI to pump in loads of cheap money
in the form of new loans in a bid to jump-start the economy.
[0] [0]
But there are several reasons why RBI may not be able to help out for much longer.
[0]
For one, as shown earlier, inflation rates are spiking. The RBI, which is legally required to
[0]
control inflation, will have to do whatever it takes to keep inflation within bounds. Typically,
this would require the RBI to raise interest rates.
[0] [0]
There is another reason why RBI might have to raise the domestic interest rate. Thanks to the
sharp spurt in economic growth and inflation in the US, its central bank — the Federal Reserve
[0]
— could soon raise US interest rates. If India has to remain an attractive destination for global
investors, RBI would have to give up on the regime of low-interest rates.
 Conclusion:
[0] [7]
Starting from 2020–21 baseline which is 7.3% lowerthan in 2019–20, GDP has to grow well
[0]
above the recent pre-pandemic trend rate (5.8%) for India to catch up with its pre-pandemic
[0]
growth path. This will require deep and wide-ranging structural reforms in the financial
[0]
sector, power & foreign trade. Reforms in cooperation with the states are also urgent in
[0]
health, education, labour and land, which are all primarily state subjects. In fact, the main
[0]
burden of our song is that the impacts of this [Covid shock] are more long term than one
might imagine and by then India would have gone beyond its sweet spot of so-called
demographic dividend so the long-term impacts are very frightening.
“