Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Capital Markets
REVIEW 45
Stanley we began securitizing automo- companies and savings banks, and they were
bile loans for General Motors Acceptance essentially delinked from capital market
Corporation as early as the 1950s. In activity. Morgan Stanley’s activity in the real
1962, when the J. I. Case Company went estate debt and equity markets at that time,
bankrupt, money was raised to pay off the in fact, did much to bring real estate finance
company’s senior creditors by setting up a into the capital markets system.
sales finance captive subsidiary and securi-
tizing Case’s accounts receivable. We used
statistical analysis of the average remaining EQUITY LINKAGES
REVIEW 47
and other instances, capital market link- began cautiously to put their feet in the
ages to real estate were born. At the end real estate waters.
of the decade, innovations such as the In the mid-1970s, the federal govern-
“spread” trading of debt instruments off of ment initiated some significant financial
Treasuries and the increasing transparency deregulation policies, loosening restraints
of the real estate capital markets caused on financial institutions. This led to a
such pricing anomalies to disappear. But slackening of investment discipline, which
it was fun while it lasted. carried forward into the 1980s. Capital
flows into real estate were augmented
by foreign investors from the Middle
REAL ESTATE CYCLES East, Japan, and Canada. By the early
1980s, inflation was rampant and inter-
I see the real estate world as a series of est rates were sky-high. By the end of the
discontinuous cycles—the public market decade, these conditions had stabilized,
pricing cycle, the private market pricing and an excess of investment funds became
cycle, the interest rate cycle, and the local available to commercial real estate, which
real estate supply and demand cycle. In fostered an overbuilding binge that took
addition, general economic cycles—five many years to work off.
or six of which I have lived through in my The early 1990s saw (guess what?)
professional life—overlay real estate cycles. “the worst real estate depression since
A way to “understand” real estate—and to the 1930s.” The fundamental cause was
make a fair amount of money from it—is the market’s over-reaction to financial
to keep an eye on all these cycles as they deregulation in the mid-1970s. Before
play out in relationship to one another, deregulation, government-insured depos-
creating pricing and value anomalies and its were invested in safe investments. After
opportunities for profit. deregulation, financial institutions were
When I started in real estate finance allowed to access capital and make invest-
in the 1970s, it was the greatest com- ments relatively unconstrained by regula-
mercial real estate downturn since the tions. The growing practice of spread
1930s. (Little did I know that two worse banking increased the cost of funds and
downturns were yet to come!) REITs had pushed institutions to make riskier and
only recently come on the scene, primarily riskier investments, including investments
as mortgage investors, and most failed to in commercial real estate.
survive the downturn, giving these invest- Institutions without sophisticated real
ment vehicles a bad name. Pension funds estate experience began offering open-
REVIEW 49
the experience factor of many developers. the crisis, one would not do any business…
The marketplace had never experienced a There is moral hazard in the presump-
down market like that of the early 1990s, tion that the distribution of risk mitigates
and to be truly seasoned, real estate prac- responsibility… Now is an excellent time to
titioners must have survived both ends of apply systematic risk analysis to the develop-
a cycle. ment and financing of projects. Do not over
borrow on projects or on an operating com-
pany basis. Keep some powder dry. Keep
THE CURRENT CYCLE financing flexible to add equity to projects
and to take advantage of the distressed prices
Starting in 1994 I have written annual that will surely follow.”
commentaries on the real estate capital In a February 2008 article, I wrote:
markets for Urban Land magazine. In “It appears to be a systemic breakdown.
February 2006 I wrote: “It appears we There were fraudulent mortgage brokers,
are in for another cycle—it is time to uninformed homebuyers, speculative buy-
manage debt structures prudently… Debt ers who owned as many as a dozen homes
underwriting standards have deteriorated. with no equity and an expectation of
In structured debt deals, loan to value continually rising prices, overly aggressive
percentages have moved up into the 90s. Wall Street firms, overwhelmed rating
It would be ironic if the financial instru- agencies, and buyers of securitized mort-
ments that alleviated the credit crisis of gage debt who did not perform adequate
the early 1990s became contributors to a due diligence. Cynicism appears to have
real estate credit squeeze in the next few run rampant… It is likely we are in the
years. The market may be forgetting the midst of one of the most severe credit
financial discipline it learned so hard in crises ever. It is anticipated to last for two
the 1990s. Proceed with caution!” to three years, and the ramifications are
A year later I wrote: “Real estate capital expected to last even longer. Federal policy
markets are not well positioned to sustain alone will not restore confidence to finan-
a general shock to the system. The capital cial institutions. The recapitalization of
markets are not pricing risk in general… these institutions, already under way, will
There is a great deal of stress built into the continue. The lack of liquidity will affect
system. There is enormous refinancing risk. everyone to some degree.”
There is a misalignment of interests. Risk is My February 2009 article stated: “If
not priced into the system… If one man- you did not play the game, you would lose
aged one’s business to protect oneself against all your ‘good’ people… The irony is that,
REVIEW 51
ing housing. Between six million and ten A long-term career in real estate is
million families are facing foreclosure, sustained by people and trust, not by
assuming the documentation gets straight- money and power. If you can compete in
ened out. The FDIC predicts 700 smaller a rough-and-tumble business and sustain
banks will fail. Over-valued securities that long-term trust relationships with people,
have not marked to market continue to you will prosper. If you view your clients
be held in great volume by commercial as people you can take advantage of, you
and investment banks, the Federal Reserve will not succeed. Instead, regard your busi-
System, the FDIC, and the GSEs. We ness not as an unending series of deals, but
have not as yet affected market clearing as a series of long-term trust relationships
prices for these assets. The major banks that you carefully nurture.
have indicated they will not begin to think Real estate has become a profession. To
about increasing their dividend payments this day, I can travel to almost any major
until 2012. CMBS issuances are about 5 city in the United States and see projects
percent of their highs, and the terms are that Morgan Stanley helped finance. It
vastly different. gives me great satisfaction to know that,
When will conditions return to nor- in our way, we helped shape the built
mal? Not for at least another three years, environment of so many cities, provided
and perhaps much longer. How will we jobs and promoted community. I see the
know what is normal? Narrowing spreads potential in the real estate business for
on all forms of debt will be a strong sig- adventure, success, and a noble calling.
nal, but the characteristics of the debt in
terms of loan amount, covenants and the
like will be much different. Banking will
become more highly regulated and more
capital-intensive and the returns on capital
will decrease, gradually driving down com-
pensation. Once we accomplish this mas-
sive readjustment, we can look forward to
rising interest rates and inflation, caused
by the huge federal deficit. At least we do
not have over-building to contend with.
Astute real estate players will know where
they are in the cycle and try to think a half-
cycle ahead in terms of opportunities.