ESTIMATION OF URBAN GROWTH USING CELLULAR

AUTOMATA IN KARACHI IN UPCOMING YEARS

Murad, Minhaj Siddiqui

ABSTRACT:
Karachi is Pakistan's only major city and the capital of Sindh. It plays an important role in the
country's economy, accounting for 65% of total income. But without proper long-term
planning, the survival of the city is threatened by mismanagement and development.
Advances in urbanization are causing serious problems such as increased population density,
governance problems, resource shortages and environmental pressures. The expansion of
uncontrolled cities is expanding urban development. Data from remote sensing and
geographic information systems are now widely used in the analysis and development of
sensing applications. Urban sprawl is one such element that can be efficiently and cost-
effectively analysed using satellite data available on the Internet in the form of current and
past images at various spatial resolutions. Pakistan’s urbanization is increasing by 3% each
year, the highest rate in South Asia. By 2025, 50% of the population is expected to live in
cities. In the Pakistani city of Karachi, population and urban areas have increased
dramatically over the last 40 years. In this study change detection technique was used to
assess the urban sprawl through the integration of historical maps with Landsat-5 TM sensor
image of 1999 and Landsat-8 OLI images of 2020. With the aid of these images we
monitored, measured and analysed the urban sprawl of Karachi. Despite of many
unsustainable conditions in the city, its population growth is tremendous i.e. approximately 4
% per annum. This growth is the result of the high natural increase as well as substantial
migrations from other parts of the country. It is assessed that the living population in the mid
2020 was around 21 million, which was far greater than of 2000 i.e. 9.2 million. In the last 25
years, Karachi has extended around 15 percent at the rate of 2 square kilometres per year to
accommodate its increasing population with considerable high density.
1.1 Introduction and depend on many contextual factors.
[6].
Migration from the countryside to the
cities is mainly the result of voluntary Urban growth is a global phenomenon and
pressures such as the growth of the local one of the fundamental reform processes
population, the expansion of employment that affect the natural and human
opportunities in urban areas and the environment through many environmental,
improvement of access to health and social and economic processes. Mass
education facilities. in the towns. This migration of people to cities is the main
situation is often aggravated by the reason for accelerating the growth of
inability of the government to allocate cities. The number and area of migration to
such facilities. The relative and absolute cities and urban areas is increasing due to
growth of the urban population has both the continuous development of
positive and negative effects, the former of infrastructure. Urban growth, on the other
which can be mitigated or avoided hand, is an important indicator of socio-
(respectively) through proper planning. economic development, but unfortunately
The strengths and weaknesses are diverse it occurs at the expense of agricultural land
and makes a big difference in land use.
The increasing trend of urbanization in
developing countries has led to different
types of land use changes both inside and
outside the city centre. Increasing urban
density in cities in developing countries
requires proper monitoring for planning
purposes, as accelerated urbanization
poses a serious threat to sustainable urban
development. Migration from rural to
urban areas for live and commercial
purposes is a fascinating sign of economic
power and a cause of changes in
urbanization and land use, but these types
of changes are regional and global. May
affect the environmental conditions of.
Human activity causes changes in land
cover and land use patterns for several
reasons. The need for housing, food and
other infrastructure is changing cities [4].
1.2 Aim and Objectives
The aim of this study is to develop a
system to predict future population growth
in Karachi city.
1 Several software, programming and
theories involved in constructing the
model, such as visual studio code, Draw.io
and Cellular Automata (CA).
2 Collecting the necessary data for this
research, including city population, size of
area, and the growth rate for different
years.
3 Design a Prototype to understand a basic
visualization of its behavior on a sample
data
4 Using a known equation, to predict the
future population growth through the
calculation, and apply it to three scenarios.
5 Develop prototypes by improving
predictions. The growth is allowed in the
city if the city infrastructure meets the
requirements, added an ambiguous logic
file, and was done in three scenarios lower
growth rate. Constant growth rate, and
increase growth rate. It takes place in
stages the first stage considers the region,
area of city and the same population
density and different population densities
at different stages. 30 years prediction was
made in this model
6 The results of the model are to be
Compared with the calculations in three
scenarios of the two stages.
2.1. Population
One of the most pressing global issues is
the huge and growing population growth
and ambitious lifestyle expansion,
especially in developing countries. In
2009, the world's population was about 7.1
billion, 50% of whom lived in urban areas
(United Nations Department of Economic
and Social Affairs [UNDESA], 2009). It
has a significant negative impact on the
environment, natural resources, and the
global climate due to increased growth,
increased use of natural resources, and the
generation of pollution (air, water, land,
acoustics). And visual) has already
appeared. Oneself in the spread of species
extinction.
Major cities are more common in the
developing world, particularly in Asia.
This can be clearly demonstrated in
Pakistan, where there has been an obvious
problem of overpopulation in Karachi
since the partition of India in 1947.
According to the 1998 census, the total
population was around 9 million, but by
2010 it had risen to 13 million. Poverty is
the main driver of this urban growth, as
poor rural people flock to the city and
large families are the rule as collateral for
the elderly. The World Health
Organization has warned that if the birth
rate in Karachi does not stabilize over the
next ten years, the city will become the
most populous city among the 23 worlds,
according to a linear regression model,
with an expected exacerbation. the international community for the
Unemployment, health, housing problems development of Asia, urban planning
and terrorism [3]. initiatives generally fail across the
continent due to factors such as
mismanagement, corruption and etc [1].
Change detection techniques are used to
assess land use and land cover changes
2.2 Urban Planning (LULC) in the study area. Landsat 5
Urban planning in general refers to the images from 2010 were collected and
efficient use of land and transport processed, and in 2015 Landsat 8 images
planning, in an effort to make places of focused on changing the settlement were
human settlement more habitable and used. More accurate classifications have
efficient in relation to their environment. been performed to control the maximum
The discipline explores a very wide range potential to emphasize urban buildings.
of aspects of the built and social Karachi city (figure 2.1)
environments of urbanized municipalities
and communities, illustrating the
significance of health policies in relation to
the urban planning in the recent decades
[1]. The link between city planning and
health inequalities is stronger in cities with
lower socioeconomic status. There are
many planning and design processes that
cover landscape architecture,
infrastructure, city planning, and
transportation planning. The environment
created after all these reforms plays an
important role in the provision of medical
Table 2.1 Karachi Historical Population
services. City planning and design
Data
processes affect health fairness by shaping
the physical environment of the city. This Year Population
promotes the availability of adequate 2020 16,094,000
housing and basic communication, equal 2019 15,741,000
access to other benefits of urban life, a 2018 15,400,000
good standard of living, and an urban 2017 15,021,000
environment that promotes outdoor 2016 14,651,000
physical activity [5]. 2015 14,289,000
2014 13,937,000
One aspect of urban planning that could 2013 13,593,000
become a major global issue in the years to 2012 13,258,000
come is solid waste management. 2011 12,931,000
Scientists and environmental activists 2010 12,612,000
believe that the scale of human activity 2009 12,301,000
due to urbanization in Asian cities 2008 11,998,000
negatively affects health and the 2007 11,702,000
environment. Despite the enormous 2006 11,413,000
spiritual, economic and cultural value of 2005 11,132,000
 2004 10,857,000
2003 10,589,000
2002 10,328,000
2001 10,073,000
2000 9,825,000
2.3 Migration Factor:
The main reasons for Karachi city rapid
urban sprawl were immigration, sub urban
development, industrialization, enterprise
establishment, infrastructure improvement
and population growth. Quantitative
research and mixed approaches are
urgently needed to understand and
understand the underlying impetus for
Pakistan's urbanization.
3 Cellular Automata
The simplest definition of a cellular
automata (CA) is a group of cells in a state
that can be changed depending on the state
of the neighboring cell and the cell itself
[10]. The concept of CA is considered to
be a discrete model, which is mainly
studied in certain specialized fields,
including computability theory, physics,
designing and planning, intricate science,
mathematics and in the modelling of
microbiology [9]. The rules of Cellular
Automata are based on collecting
evidence, decision of a neighbourhood,
Classification of Conditions, building of
decision tree.
3.1 Using Cellular Automata to Predict
Growth.
The Cellular Automata (CA) for Urban
Growth is designed to simulate the
urbanization process in virtual areas. This
model consists of a set of rules that explain
the spatial interaction of cells and a set of
parameters that lead to the study of
different urban forms. In addition, you can
get a variety of typical results. It was
estimated by fractional analysis and
evaluation of the fractal dimension. There
is an important relationship between model
parameters and fractal dimension values,
and the model uses several important
elements to study true stress patterns in
urban landscapes, transport networks,
protected areas, and physical geography
[6].
Many factors contribute to urban space
planning and policy challenges in large
cities, including rapid migration, poorly
organized urban areas, and lack of data to
monitor urban growth and land-use
changes. I will. To support sustainable
urban development, we use the CA model
to predict the continuation of future growth
trends [7]. Defining CA rules is an
important step in urban modeling.
behavioral growth model similar to current
growth, such as performing advanced CA
simulations on historical images from
remote sensors categorized by developed
GIS tools. A set of rigorous rules defined
and adjusted according to actual urban
growth patterns. Although the percentage
of accuracy is very high and the average
accuracy is over 80%, the AC growth rules
need to be changed from time to time to
accommodate changing growth patterns
and achieve accurate simulations [8].
The advantage of using the CA model is
that you can not only understand the
evolution of urban growth, but also know
about many potential growth scenarios that
urban areas can navigate in the future.
Cities are considered a complex system.
The fuzzy cellular automated urban growth
model helps solve this complexity. The
dynamic urbanization model is a useful
tool for understanding the urbanization
process and has many social and economic
indicators that influence urbanization. The
CA model of land cover change is a good
way to protect the growth of sensitive
areas and expected cities. Population
growth is one of the main drivers of
change in any urban system and will
determine the shape of the city in the
future. This is because this factor should
be the starting point for any model [9].
3.2 Fuzzy Logic
Fuzzy logic is an algorithmic approach
based on "degrees of truth" rather than the
usual "right or wrong" (1 or 0) logic that
modern computers rely on. The idea of
fuzzy logic was first proposed by Dr.
Lotfi Zadeh of the University of
California, Berkeley in the 1960s. To
obtain high accuracy, two fuzzy logic files
have been used at different stages in this
research: the first file consists of two
inputs, population and area each one has
three variables which gives nine rules; and
the second has three inputs namely
population, area and density also each of
them has three variables to sum up with 27
rules.
CA Model Basic Diagram (figure 3.1)
3.3 Population Growth
The 30 year of population growth (2000-
2030) was calculated using the classical
equation shown below (eq 3.1). It is
widely used and very accurate results can
be obtained using raw data. The current
population and growth rate are correct.
Calculations for the three scenarios of
constant growth rate, increasing and
decreasing growth rates consider 2.53% as
constant because this was the average
growth rate over the last decade, but
0.25% in the increasing scenario is added
every 10 years (2.25% 2.5%, 2.75%). and
the same value of 0.25% are deducted
every 10 years in decreasing scenarios
(2%, 1.75%, 1.5%). Since changes in
population growth are usually very small
each year and large fluctuations are rare,
only 0.25% was selected for changes in
population growth in both increasing and
decreasing scenarios [3].
𝑃2 = 𝑃1 × (1 + 𝑖) n ......................... (3.1)
where p2 is predicted population, p1 is
current population, i is the growth rate, and
n is number of years.
The population is 9825000 in 2000. So, in
2030 at constant growth rate population
will be 20608602 (figure 3.4) the
decreasing will be 18850054 (figure 3.5)
and the increasing will be 22367150
(figure 3.6).
The CA model in (figure 3.2) where the
density is same in the population
prediction and it is equal the population
density in 2000 (292 pop/km2). To obtain
accurate results a fuzzy logic file was used
with population input which has three
variables which are representing the three
scenarios of population growth rate and
area input also has three variables which
are representing the number of cells
around the cell being tested. The output is
expansion ranges from zero to one which
is representing the expand whether big or
small, using Gaussian function and nine
rules. (Table 3.1)
CA model Fuzzy logic block diagram
(figure 3.2)
 6 Small Medium High Medium
7 Small Big Small Small
8 Small Big Medium Medium
9 Small Big High Medium-
Big
10 Medium Small Small Small-
Medium
11 Medium Small Medium Medium
12 Medium Small High Medium
Table 3.1: Fuzzy Logic Rule Base 13 Medium Medium Small Medium
14 Medium Medium Medium Medium
Area| Small Medium High 15 Medium Medium High Medium-
High
Population
16 Medium Big Small Medium-
Small Small Small- Medium Big
medium 17 Medium Big Medium Medium
Medium Small- medium Medium- 18 Medium Big High Medium-
medium high High
19 High Small Small Small-High
High Medium Medium- High 20 High Small Medium Medium
high 21 High Small High High
22 High Medium Small Medium
23 High Medium Medium Medium-
High
At this stage, given the relatively high land 24 High Medium High High
prices associated with the availability of 25 High Big Small Small-High
26 High Big Medium High
drinking water, the projected population 27 High Big High High
size considers the different population
density of the city. The difference in the
Table 3.3 Three scenario population
population density projected using the
growth
model and it is achieved by giving a
command at a given moment. The block Year Increase Constant Decrease
diagram below shows the role of fuzzy 2030 22367150 20608602 18850054
logic and CA in the model (figure.3.3), and Constant population growth chart
the table shows the rule for fuzzy ruler. (figure 3.4)
The figure describes population, area,
density, and expansion of functional areas.
Using Gaussian function with 27 rules
(table 3.2).
CA enhanced model block diagram
(figure 3.3)

Decreasing population growth chart

(figure 3.5)

Table 3.2: Fuzzy logic rule base with

population density
Rul Population Area Density Expand
e
1 Small Small Small Small
2 Small Small Medium Small
3 Small Small High Small
4 Small Medium Small Small
5 Small Medium Medium Small-
Medium
Increasing population growth chart
(figure 3.5)
Conclusion
There is no doubt that all discoveries and
achievements in human history, including
civilization itself, were solutions to the
problems facing humankind. For example,
medicine was created to cure illness,
transport to facilitate travel, and electricity
to do the hard work that was previously
done by the mechanical work of human
and animal muscle strength. A unique
problem in this regard of human
development is that the pressure on natural
resources and ecosystems by people is no
longer sustainable due to the growing
population and ambitious lifestyles of
people around the world.
This study identifies a particular city of
karachi that faces major urban planning
challenges due to decades of negligence
and confusion that have resulted in random
settlements, overcrowding, pollution and
lack of public facilities. It applies directly
to the situation and brings benefits to the
poor infrastructure. This will predict trends
in population growth and urban expansion
by region. This will allow local
government planners to prepare the right
infrastructure and ultimately ensure the
sustainable expansion of karahi and the
improve the living standards of people.

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