7 Sep 2021

Country Economic Forecast

Mauritania

Economist
 The economy contracted by 1.5% in 2020, after jumping by 5.9% in 2019. This
Callee Davis was the first economic contraction since 2008. The slump was largely driven by
Economist a 5.7% fall in household consumption (which accounts for around 58% of GDP).
Although export and investment growth slowed, growth in both remained
positive, thanks to the strong extractives sector. Both iron ore and gold
production ticked higher; demand for the former gathered momentum in H2
2020 as China’s economic recovery gained traction.

 Going forward, iron ore output will be at the mercy of developments in China. Plans to
Iron ore production cut steel production in a bid to curb carbon emissions have seen Chinese demand
remained strong in (and thus global prices) plunge in recent weeks. Fears of an earlier-than-expected
2020, as Chinese tapering of asset purchases by the US Fed also led to a sharp fall in gold prices at the
demand gained start of August. We expect this downward trend in gold prices to continue into 2021 as
traction in the the US shifts towards tighter monetary policy. These developments will not bode well
second half of the for the external position.
year
 Mauritania passed the peak of its third wave of Covid-19 infections in early August.
Much like its North African peers, the latest wave saw the highest number of daily
cases recorded since the start of the pandemic. The cases are believed to have been
driven by the highly transmissible Delta variant. Vaccination rates remain low: only
around 4.2% of the total population has been partially vaccinated. A recent UNICEF
report notes that logistical challenges and vaccine hesitancy have resulted in a
slower-than-anticipated uptake of vaccination.

 Former president Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz was jailed on June 22, after failing to
appear before a judge. He was required to do so regularly under the terms of his
house arrest, which he had been placed under since May, amid investigations into
alleged corruption during his time in office. The fact that the incoming President
Mohamed Ould Ghazouani is overseeing his predecessor's trial suggests that he is
willing to alienate some in his party for the sake of clean governance, which is good
news from the point of view of the operating and investment environment.

…but output will be Forecast for Mauritania

at the mercy of (Annual percentage changes unless specified)

developments in 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Real GDP growth (% year) 2.1 5.9 -1.5 1.6 3.4 3.2
China CPI inflation (%) 3.0 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.2
Current account ($ bn) -1.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.0 -1.0
Current account balance (% of GDP) -13.8 -10.9 -12.0 -12.7 -11.6 -10.7
Exchange rate per USD (year average) 35.7 36.7 37.2 36.1 37.0 37.9
Population (millions) 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0
Nominal GDP ($ bn) 7.0 7.6 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.3
GDP per capita ($ current prices) 1,599.1 1,678.2 1,697.6 1,778.2 1,812.7 1,849.9

Contact: Callee Davis | callee@oxfordeconomics.com

Country Economic Forecast | Mauritania

Mauritania: Real GDP growth Mauritania: Inflation

% year % year
20 16
F'cast F'cast
Mauritania
14
15 Mauritania Africa
12
10
10
Africa
5 8
6
0
4
-5
2
-10 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021
Source: Oxford Economics / World Bank Source: Oxford Economics / World Bank

Mauritania: Current account balance Mauritania: Foreign exchange reserves

US$ bn % of GDP US$ bn
0.4 10.0 1.8
F'cast
0.2 5.0 1.6
0.0 0.0 1.4
-0.2 -5.0 1.2
-0.4 -10.0
1.0
-0.6 -15.0
0.8
-0.8 -20.0
-1.0 -25.0 0.6
-1.2 -30.0 0.4
% of GDP
-1.4 US$ bn -35.0
(RHS)
(LHS)
0.2
-1.6 -40.0 0.0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: Oxford Economics / World Bank Source: Haver Analytics

Mauritania: GDP per capita* (US$) Mauritania: GDP per capita

US = 100 US$ PPP
12.0 *calculated using market exchange rates
16,000
Mauritania
10.0 14,000
All developing economies Sub-Saharan Africa
12,000
8.0 Emergers
10,000
6.0 8,000

4.0 6,000
Africa
4,000
2.0 Mauritania
2,000
0.0
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 0
2019
Source: Oxford Economics / World Bank Source: Oxford Economics / IMF

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Country Economic Forecast | Mauritania

Key Facts
Politics
Head of state: President Mohamed Ould GHAZOUANI
Head of government: Prime Minister Ismail CHEIKH SIDIYA
Political system: Presidential Republic
Date of next presidential election: 2024
Date of next legislative election: 2023
Currency: Mauritanian Ouguiya (MRU)

Long-term economic & social development

1990 2000 2010 2020*
GDP per capita (US$) 740.7 676.6 1,610.9 1,697.6
Inflation (%) 6.6 3.3 6.3 2.4
Population (mn) 2.0 2.6 3.5 4.6
Urban population (% of total) 39.3 38.1 46.6 55.3
Life expectancy (years) 59.7 60.7 62.5 64.9
Source : Oxford Economics & World Bank

Structure of GDP by output * 2020 or latest Source : CIA Factbook

2020 available year Western Africa, bordering the North Atlantic Ocean,
Agriculture 20.4% between Senegal and Western Sahara
Industry 28.0%
Services 51.6%
Source : Oxford Economics 2138.33

Long-term sovereign credit ratings & outlook Corruption perceptions index 2020
Foreign currency Local currency Score
Fitch Not rated Not rated Developed economies (average) 74.3
Moody's Not rated Not rated Emerging economies (average) 38.6
S&P Not rated Not rated Mauritania 29.0
Africa 32.5
2018
1990 1995 2000 2017 Source: Transparency International
Structural economic indicators Scoring system 100 = highly clean, 0 = highly corrupt
1990 2000 2010 2020*
Current account (US$ million) -130.0 -98.0 -357.0 -945.0
Trade balance (US$ million) - - - - Composition of goods & services exports 2018
FDI (US$ million) -10.0 - - 880.0

1.0%
Debt service (US$ million) 145.7 83.4 114.0 382.5
2.3%
Debt service (% of exports) 30.7 - 4.9 14.1 43.4%
2.8%
External debt (% of GDP) 140.0 131.8 63.2 70.6 0.4%
1.6%

Oil production (000 bpd) - - - - 3.2%

Oil consumption (000 bpd) 6.3 22.8 8.0 22.7

Source : Oxford Economics / World Bank / EIA
45.1%

Agricultural products Fuels and mining products

Destination of goods' exports 2020
Manufactures Other goods exports
China 43.2%
European Union 28.6% Transport Travel

Japan 6.6% Other commercial services Other services exports

Russias 5.7%
Other 15.9%
Source : IMF DOTS Source : WTO

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