Arba Minch University

School of public health

Assignment 1 for Jinka site weekend MPH students (please show the
steps strictly)
Date of submission: 15 Jan, 2022

Assignment by group 11
Agegneh C.
Bizuwayeh B.
Bota Enkias
Dr Eleni Hagos
Wondmagegn Tesfaye
1. The following table shows sample of persons, cross classified according to marital status
and educational level.

Marital Education Level Total

status Diploma Degree
Single 25 30 55
Married 20 23 53
Divorced 10 27 37
Widowed 5 12 17
Total 60 102 162

A. Suppose we pick a person at random from this group. What is the probability that this
person will be the one with degree level of education?

P(degree)= All degree holder/total=102/162=0.63

B. If we pick a person at random, what is the probability that the person will be one with
diploma level of education and single marital status?
P(diploma and single)= 25/162=0.154

C. Suppose we pick a person at random and find him/her diploma holder. What is the
probability that this person will be the one who is divorced?
P(divorced/diploma)=P(Divorced and diploma)/P(diploma)
= (10/162)/(60/162)
= 10/60=0.167

D. What is the probability that a randomly picked person is one who is degree holder or
has a single marital status or both?
P (degree or Single) = P(degree) + P(single) – P(degree and single)
= (102/162 + 55/162) - 30/162
= (0.63 + 0.34) – 0.185
= 0.785
2. In town X the probability that a female married women being positive for cervical Cancer
screening was found to be 2%. If you randomly select 3 women, what is the probability that
at least 2 married females will be positive? What is the mean and the variance for the
distribution.
x n-x
• Pr(X=x) = n! p (1- p)
x!(n-x)!

where Pr (X) is probability of 2 married cervical Ca positive

n=3
p=2/100=0.02
1-p=1- 0.02=0.98
X=2
n-x=3-2=1
2 1
Pr(2 married cervical Ca positive) = 3! 0.02 (0.98) =
2!(1)!

= 6 * 0.0004 *0.98
2*1
= 0.001176
The probability of 2 married females being positive for cervical Ca among 3
randomly selected female is almost 0 (0.001176)
The mean for the above distribution will be n*p = 3*0.02= 0.06
The variance will be calculated after calculating the SD. So,

SD = √np(1-p) = √3*0.02*0.98=0.0588

The variance, therefore, will be SD2 variance =0.05882 = 0.00345744

3. The finishing times for marathon runners during a race are normally distributed with a mean
of 195 minutes and a standard deviation of 25 minutes.
a. What is the probability that a runner will complete the marathon within 3 hours?
3hrs=180 minutes and we will calculate the Z score= X-µ/s
Z=180-195/25= -0.6
P(Z -0.6) = 0.2743 so that will be 27.43%

b. What proportion of the runners will complete the marathon between 3 hours and 4 hours?
Z score for 180 minutes is -0.6 as calculated above
Z score for 240minutes(4 hrs)=240-195/25=1.8
So the P(180min  X  240 min ) = P(-0.6  Z 1.8) = 0.9641-0.2743=0.6898
So 68.98% of the runers willl complete the maraton between 3hrs and
4hrs
4. In a population of subjects who died from lung cancer following exposure to asbestos it was
found that the mean number of years elapsing betweeen eposure and death was 25.the
standar deviation was 7 years.consider the sampling distribution of sample means based on
samples of size 35 drawn from this population.
a. What will be the shape of the samplig distribution?Why?
It will be expected to be normally distributed because the sample
size is greater than 30.
b. What will be the mean and variance of the sampling distribution?

µx̄=25
sx̄=s/ √35=1.1832
Variance will be 1.182=1.4

c. What is the probability that a single simple rando sample of size 35 drawn from this
population will yield a mean between 22 and 29?

Z value of sampling distribution of mean (µ) 22 = x̄-µ/s/ √35 = 22-25/1.1832=-

2.535˜2.54

Z value of sampling distribution of mean (µ) 29 = 29-25/1.1832 = 3.38

P(-2.54  Z  3.38)= 0.9996-0.0055=0.9941

So the probability that a single simple rando sample of size 35 drawn from this
population yielding a mean between 22 and 29 will be 99.41%.