eR Ned Part tla eMule emlm (lied m1 (-La aa transportation Kostiantyn Turcheniuk ', Dmitry Bondarev ', Glenn G. Amatucci*, Gleb Yushin “* RESEARCH: Review "school of Materia Science & Engineering, Georgi institute of Technology, Manta, GA, 30332, USA Energy Storage Research Group, Department of Materals Science and Engineering, Rutgers University, North Brunswick, NJ, USA This review considers key parameters for affordable Li-ion battery (LIB) — powered electric transporta- tion, such as mineral abundance for active material synthesis, raw materials’ processing cost, cell performance characteristics, cell energy density, and the cost of cell manufacturing. We analyze the scarcity of cobalt (Co) and nickel (Ni) resources available for intercalation-type LIB cathode materials, estimate the demands for these metals by transportation and other industries and discuss risk factors for their price increase within the next two decades. We further contrast performance and estimated costs of LIBs based on intercalation materials, such as lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NCM), hium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA), lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and other oxide-based cathodes and carbonaceous anodes, with those of LIBs based on conversion-type active materials, such as lithium sulfide (LizS) and lithium fluoride/iron (Fe) and copper (Cu)-based cathodes and silicon (Si)- based anodes. Our analyses of industry data suggest that in the long-term the LIB price will be dominated by cost of the cathode materials. In addition, the cost contributions of manufacturing, overhead and inactive materials will be reversely proportional to the cell energy density. As such, we expect that to-be developed energy-dense conversion-type LIBs should be able to reach the $30-40/ kWh by around 2040-2050, while the type LIBs will likely be 60% more expensive and sensitive to the Ni price variations. By analyzing the availability and costs of lithium (Li), sulfur (S), Si, fluorine (F), Fe and Cu we conclude that the lower cost, broader accessibility, much greater abundance, and improved health and safety aspects of employing conversion-type chemistries should warrant dedication of substantial efforts in their development. Furthermore, we predict that based on pure economics, the widespread introduction of zero carbon-emission transportation and sustainable energy sources is inevitable and independent on the winning LIB chemistry. ntercalation Why Li-i batteries During the last 28 ears the evolutionary improvements in lithium-ion battery (LIB) technologies increased LIB volumetric and gravimetric enesgy densities by over 3 times (from ~200 to n rather than other metal-ion rechargeable over 700 Wh 1. ' and from 80 to 250 Wh kg *, respectively) [1] and reduced cell price by up to 45 times (from over $4500 kWh"? to $100-250 kWh”). As a result, LIBS mostly replaced other rechargeable battery technologies for most portable appli cations with the exception of lead-acid batteries [2]. Aqueous nicke 1d nickel-metal hydride cells lost their market share due to LIB's substantially improved performance and lower © Coreiponsng aur cost [3]. Will Na-ion, Kion, Mg-ion or Ca-ion be able to replace Fal ed Yt G (nino adminRESEARCH Materials Today * Volume 42 # January/February 2021 LBs for ground electric transportation in the long run due to lower cost and larger reserves of Na, K, Mg and Ca compared to 2 The answer depends on how ion replacement may reduce battery pack-level cost. Battery pack cost is currently a decisive factor for their use in electric vehicles (EVs) (provided, of course, that cell stability, specific energy and energy density meet the ‘minimal requirements) [4,5]. The pack cost depends on (i) pack- Ing module design, cost and efficiency (which considers cooling requirements and pack complexity), (i) cell energy density (in the units of Wh/L) because packs and battery management sys- tems become more expensive If larger number of less energy dense cells of the same dimensions are utilized, (il) the energy- normalized cell cost (in the units of kWh"). The energy- normalized cell cost depends on (a) the cost of cell materials, (both active and inactive); (b) the cost of cell manufacturing: and (¢) coll energy density (because larger number of the less energy dense cells and more materials need to be produced to attain the same energy). There is also the shipping costs and the cost of sales, RE:D and profits. It has been estimated that replacement of Li by Na or other metals may reduce the automo: tive cell material costs by up to 1.5-300 without any changes in the cell manufacturing, depending on the price of Li and Ca [. Yet, so far, such replacements also reduce cell energy density by 15-40%, which, in tusn, increases energy-normalized cell cost and battery management system cost to the levels where these novel technologies become not economical now and likely in the foreseeable future (6 Li-ion batteries in ground electric transportation Fig. 1 illustrates the key factors that should be improved signifi- cantly to atain affordable electric transportation with LIB packs: (1) mineral abundance for active material synthesis, (2) raw materials’ processing cost, (3) cell performance characteristics, and (4) module/pack design. Transportation. already accounts for the largest portion of rechargeable batteries market and full 10%) + >10M metric tons of low-cost 40 kWh average Saati doo avrg time (10-30 min) = 4. Module/pack efficiency (es00 Wit:nan0 Wit) Optimal compact module -minerals/year design + Disruptive mining + Innovations and + Minimum heath hazard = sinpitatons ieee == = Oi ads) - 100 kWh (LDV) - 250 kWh Module UB cells set (MOV) -800 KWh (HOV) 2.Low cot of Improved LIB cell materials, Properties, Prottabe refinement Low energy normalized cel Cw poceeing cost cost 40-90 § kh) ‘Minimum price veo Efficient recycling ——— + High volumetric energy density (1000 Whit) + Long oyete life Key improvement areas or affordable electri wansportation (1) mineral abundance for active material synthesis (2) ow raw materia processing cost, (3) high ell performance characteristics at reduced cost and (4) ecient module/pack desig,Materials Today * Volume 42 # January/February 2021 speculated based on the projected cost reduction in LIB cells from the current $100-250 kWh”! to below $70-80 kWh! [13], andl the battery pack cost to fll below $90-100 kWh Reducing the pack cost to below $40-50 kWh would greatly accelerate the transition to renewables beyond the initial projections. However, such price reductions are not easy to attain and the Improvements in the highest performance LIB energy density hhas been slowed down toa mete 1-2% per yearas the technology matured, conventional intercalation-type active materials, approached thelr theoretical mits and further reduction in thickness of current collectors and separators increased the risk of runaway reactions that might lead to spontaneous ignition 114}, Will it become feasible 10 achieve 2-Sx LIB cost reduction ‘withthe economy of scale alone? Unlikely in the next many dec- audes because only moderate financial benefits could be attained with further increase in production volume once substantial scale has been reached (15). Recent estimations that take into consideration both the scale and the cost of raw materials, even argued that the pack-level cost will unlikely be reduced to ess than $130 kWh [16] in the nea ature without subsidies unless fundamentally new active (Li-storing) materials replace conven- tional anodes and cathodes to increase cell-evel energy density, of BEV LiBs, while reducing total (active and inactive) materials cost (which already account for 50-65% of the LIB cel price) Battery chemistries for electric transportation Several conventional active cathode materials are currently being pursued for BEV LIBs: () high capacity/high voltage lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide cathode (NCA, curtently com- ‘monly LINiy4Co9 sAlos02) oF (i) lithium nickel cobalt man- ganese oxide cathode (NCM, preferably higher capacity Ni-rich variants, such as NCM622-LINIp «Coy 2Mn 0» of mote prefer- ably NCMB1 LLINIp 4Coo;Mng 102 |17)} (i) lithium manganese oxide LiMn,0, (LMO) and (Iv) Ithium iron phosphate LiFePO, (LEP), Despite high costs of Ni and Co metals compared to Fe and Mn, the NCA and NCM-based LIBs and battery packs are known to be substantially cheaper than LMO- and LEP-based cones due to higher energy densities of the former. While higher capacity Co-free "NCA, Co-free "NCM" and Lirich “NCM" are being researched heavily [1S], itis uncles the automotive LIB performance requirements in the next dec- ade due to multiple known technical issues [17], Furthermore, leven. upon success, development of such chemistries will still not reduce LIB cost sufficiently, but will reduce reliance on min- Ing of Co which has a documented negative societal impact. ‘Can we expect lower cost of key raw materials to become a norm in the future? As we recently mentioned in our comment {19}, such a scenario may be unlikely as well. The cost of Fe (in LFP) and Mn (in LMO) is already very low and rather stable and the growing battery demands will unlikely affect these, ‘The situation with Co and Ni is gloomier. The increase in demand for the BEV LIBs has caused wholesale prices of Co to Increase from ~22 $/kg to ~36 S/kg (with a temporary maximum, of 95 $/kg due to mismatch in supply and demand) over the past two years [20]. Asa result, the cost of most cathodes increased by bout 30-60% from Jan 2017 to Mar 2018 [21]. Note that both, if these could reach RESEARCH NCA and NCM cathodes typically comprise 6-12 wt. % Co and 436-48 wt. 96 Ni. For example, moderate 75 KWh LIB utilizes ~100 kg of cathode material and thus requires 6-12 kg of Co and 36-48 kg of Ni, Massive growth of the BEVs will require mi lions of metric tons of Co and Ni, which should increase prices ‘on these commodities, as we will discuss in detail further. Addi tionally, market push for LIB cost reduction may have multiple undesirable outcomes if LIB chemistry does not change. For example, Amnesty Intemational [22] and Bloomberg Technol ‘ogy (23| described the most outrageous exploitations of children land adult workers in Co mines In Aftica and shocking levels of air, water and land pollution of natural graphite-mining villages in China, both endangering health and lite of workers and their families, Small (artisanal) mines are particularly poorly regulated and often involve workers mining toxic Co by hands or using basic tools with little to none personal protection equipment to dig underground tunnels, and such mines account up to a fifth of African production in 2017 [23]. As such, we stress that the societal impacts of expanding mining operations to support BEV should not be negative relative to the potential positive 4gains of lower toxic and CO, emissions resulting from the elim- ination of ICE based transportation. In this work, we analyze the availability, price volatility and sustainability of key materials to evaluate their potential for long-term BEV applications, We stipulate that the development and scale-up of ultra-high capacity alloying-type anode and conversion-type cathode chemistries based on abundant and Inexpensive raw materials (such as Si, Fe and Cu, among others) to double LIB energy density is highly desired to exceed BEV LIB ‘cost targets, to overcome the scarcity of Co and Ni reserves and to Snally enable unobstructed and full transition to much cleaner BEVs. Available deposits of Co and Ni Looking at the amount of metals present in Earth’s crust may lead to erroneous conclusions about their abundance and avai ability because the cost of most metals is strongly influenced by their concentration in ore (24). For example, the Barth's crust contains approximately 0.7 Pt [25] (peta metre tons) of Co, how: ‘ever, the commercially viable deposits ofthis meta are limited to only 25.5 Mt (milion metsie tons) [26] (Fig. 2a) Similarly, Ni’ ‘content in the Earths crust is 2.1 Pt, the commercially available ‘deposits of Ni are estimated to be 130 Me (ig. 2 [25]. The sell ing prices of materials inversely corelate with their concentra tion in available deposits (Fig. 2) [15,27], because lower ‘mineral concentration increases the amount of the ore that must be processed and typically requires employment of additional ‘apitabintensive processing technologies (25). The progress and ‘ost reduction in such technologies is rather slow. Beginning of 2000s Co costs underwent strong growth due to ‘the rapidly ssing demands of the portable devices and battery EVs [26,29], Pure Co or Co-containing salt deposits are not found in nature. Due to somewhat similar ionic radii of Co (0.525 A) compared to Fe" (0.685 A) and Ni?" (0.69 A), Co is mainly substituting these metals and is found in more than 30 principal Co-bearing minerals (40,1). The total terrestrial Co resources are estimated to be ~25.5 Mt [50,32], with: () ~1.88 enRESEARCH ) Materials Today * Volume 42 # January/February 2021 a 100000 10000 e 1000 i a . Sw i Go 1 a @, Total amountin Ml Available 1E+00 16-01 16-02 16-03 16-04 16.05 16-06 “tonnes” coposte Cancnaon ince (8) sanng met Resenes (0) 07 7 0.16 oa ap % ony an Ge 8 % ? on mpegs) aie 2 enomiay ea Soa on (iG om F 8 oo = 2 tina : : esto vos 5 0 2) Refine i, Ming mer Reserves a mane ‘a {furl cana ieee’ ot aa ts z soi 2 “ 3 as : sa iu ra, sl 2 iene ‘Canada (slides) Z eceets en Cnteton, Indonesia, Phpines, g vot New Caledonia: taeaes) Shen 1S Restot ot Resources of Co and Ni available for auto-LIB cathode materials (25: (2) amount of Co and Ni available in Earth's crust compared to their terrestral mining reserves [b) dependence of metal prices on their concentration inthe ore () distribution of resources of Co by concentration and (4) country of orig © historical prices fr Co) distrbuton of resources of Ni by concentration and (g) country of origi: (h) historical prices for Nu Mi of the highest-grade ores (1.0-1.5 wt. 9) [30]; (i) ~4.84 Mt high-grade ores (0.3-0.9 wt. %), (ii) ~3.21 Mt medium-grade Co ores (02-03 wt. %) [30], (iv) ~8.75 MU lower grade ores (01-02 wt. %) and (v) ~103 Me very low grade deposits (0.01-0.1 wt.) (Pig. 2e) (30). Among these available terrestrial Co, ~7 Mt ate economically profitable for mining at recent prices [26], and a portion of the ~8 Mt of marginal reserves ‘may become economically viable [33] with further advance- ments of mining technologies in combination with Co price climb (Fig. 26), Still, the depletion of the high-grade Co ores should inevitably increase prices of already rather expensive ‘Co, High levels of radioactive uranium in some of the remaining ‘ores [34] will additionally contribute to substantially higher Co processing cost. In comparison, the prices of metals which are contained in the high-grade ores, such as Fe (20%) of AL (119%), will likely not change considerably [35]. While the iden- tifiable Co resources on the seabed are massive (~120 Mt) [30], they will not be available to satisfy the growing EV demands because the seabed mining Is very expensive [36], and because the development of suitable envionmental policy regulations ‘that protect the safety for the deep ocean habitat will take dec- ades [37].Materials Today * Volume 42 # January/February 2021 (Other significant limitations of Co for EVs and other cost- sensitive applications with relatively small profit margins are its price volatility and its dependence on the Cu/Ni mining indus- tries [38]. Indeed, nearly all Co is mined as a by-product of Cu and Ni mining [30]. AS such, independent increase in Co demand would unproportionally increase its mining cost. The {intermittent shortage of Co supply or the accumulation of stocks when Co demand was weakened (eg, induced by changes in the ‘metallurgical industries) caused substantial volatility of Co prices (Fig. 2e) [39]. ‘The uneven distribution of the Co-rich minerals in Earth poses yet another big. isk [40]. Nearly 60% of Co mined in 2019 came from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [30], Which possess majority ofall commercially available Co deposits {93}. The lack of environmental legislation enforcement in Africa thas caused the mines to have a significant negative impact on. the overall health of the dvvellers of neighborhoods adjacent to the Co production facilities [41,42]. The exposure to Co dust thas been associated with adverse respiratory, pulmonary, and neurological diseases that ead to cancers and breathing ditficul- ties, danger to unbom children and deaths to those exposed for prolonged time [43], While publie pressure to adopt better prac- tices has led some companies to follow strict regulations to verify Co suppliers [44], many mines continue to employ problematic practices. China has gradually gained controls In the export of containing ore from the DRC, becoming the world largest Co refinery (Fig. 2d) (40), ‘The rising costs of Co has pushed the LIB cathode producers to shift their attention to Nisich cathode materials with reduced Co content. However, the prevalence of Nitich eathodes to sat- Isly the grand demands of the future electric transportation may face similar challenges of price volatility and price increase. The commercially viable deposits of Ni have been estimated to be between! 74 and 130 Mt [45] (Fig. 20. In 2016, about 2.1 Mt were consumed by all industries with battery-related applications accounted for <10%, As the world will face the depletion of the rich (1%) Ni ores in ~20 years, the increase in Ni prices may be inevitable, Most of the world’s Ni terrestrial resources are hosted in Ni laterites (70%) and sulfides (30%) [46] (Pig. 29. Australia, Indone- sia, and New Caledonia possess over 600% of total world’s reserves of Ni laterites (Fig. 2f-g) [26]. The grade of the laterite ore depends on its composition with maximum grade 1.6% for oxide and clay laterites and 2.4-2.6% for Ni silicates [47]. Outstanding barriers to the development of lateritic-Niis in high capital cost of processing facilities, stable oxide mineralogy, low Ni concen- tations, high moisture content, large volumes of consumables, fewer opportunities for side-product recovery, very high energy requirements, and technical challenges of hycrometallurgical process [47,48], Consumption of Ni by aerospace, batteries and stainless steel production industries rapidly deflates Ni ore grade (Fig. 2h), In adaition, political factors (Indonesia, China, Russia) and Ni demand increases by aerospace (United States, China, Russia) may contribute to Future price volatility (ig. 2h). Another important concern for the battery industry is that only Class 1 Ni (the high-purity Ni >99.806; priced at ~35% higher than the reference LME prices [49)) is suited for battery production due to the ease of processing and low purification RESEARCH cost to produce nickel (Il) sulfate (NiSO,), a LIB cathode precut- Sor [50]. Refining Class 2 Ni (lower-class purity Ni <99.8% — fe ronickel, of nickel pig iron, NPI) remains prohibitivel ‘expensive for LIBs [48]. Class 1 Ni is easier to produce from sulfite deposits (via Ni carbonyl route), while Class 2 is mostly made from laterite deposits (via primary extraction to matte or fer ronickel) [48,49,51] Global car sales approached 80M in 2019 {52}. In onder to investigate the potential availability of Co and Ni resources, we hhave built @ projection model for year 2025-2050 based on the ‘demand by electric transportation industry, including () electric cars, (i) busses and (ii) trucks. The number of electric cars was estimated based on the public announcements with 120M per vyear by 2050 [53], the number of electric busses ~ 1 M per year by 2050, and the number of electric heavy-, medium-, and light-duty vehicles (HDV, MDV and LDV) - 2.4M, 1.3 M and 25 M per year, respectively, by 2050 (conservative sub-S0% bat ‘ery electrification of busses and trucks). Fig. 3a shows the energy storage demand contributions, which are close to previous est mates (6). For simplicity, we assumed that on average the EV LLIB will be made with NCA cathodes with relatively low amount of Co (9.2 wt 96) and high Ni content (48.9 wt.%). We assumed a small (40 kWh) battery pack in an average car, 400 kWh in a bus and 100, 250, and 800 kWh in LDV, MDV, and HDV, respec- tively. We also assumed that electrification of trucks will be delayed till 2030 [54,55] ‘Without a change in the LIB chemistry, an immense amount ‘of Co supply would be needed to satisfy the annual transporta tion demand: ~0.32 Mt by 2030 rapidly growing to 0.76 Mt by 2040 and to 1.3 Mt by 2050 (Fig. 3b, ©. The demands for Co Use in magnets [56] and superalloys [57] will also likely exper ‘ence growth. With current Co mining capabilities of less than ~0.15 Mt per year, the industry would need to increase fivefold by 2040 to keep up with the demand (Fig. 3c) If we limit our- selves to 9.2 Mt of “economically viable” Co reserves then these ‘would be exhausted by early 2030-35 (Hg. 30), forcing the price increase to open up “marginally feasible” reserves (Fig. 1c). Increasing the rate of recycling will help, but it cannot contribute ‘enough due to rapidly rising market [5S]. The situation with Niis slightly better ~ the EV demands would exceed feasible mining from the “currently economically viable” reserves by ~2040 and surpass unsustainable 8 Mt per year by 2080 (Fig. 3d). Note that we optimistically considered both Class 1 and Class 2 Ni, which makes our estimations to be “best case” scenarios and doubling the Ni prices may be needed to initiate investments In the currently “marginally feasible” reserves to catch up with, the expected demand. Multiple other factors may contribute to ‘the volatility of Co and Ni priees (Fig. 3e) Costs of Co/Ni based intercalation cathodes ‘The NCM production commonly relies on the formation of the ‘composite hydroxide from a mixture of MaSOs, CoSO, and Ni8Oj in a basic solution containing NaOH and NH; [50], The ‘composite hydroxide Is then annealed in the presence of LIOH ‘or Li,CO, at temperatures of 700-1000°C, which leads to the ‘transformation of hydroxides and carbonates to oxides (59) Alternatively, corresponding carbonates or hydroxides of the i