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T he speed of the economic bounceback
from the enormous recession of 2020
has taken many forecasters by surprise.
and four of our five indicators). Some
countries remain in the economic pits,
while others are faring better than they
for people’s lost labour income by sending
them vast amounts of money. That was
America’s strategy: although unemploy
Output across the 38 mostly rich oecd were before the pandemic on almost every ment soared as the economy locked down,
countries combined probably surpassed measure. Denmark, Norway and Sweden households received more than $2trn in
its prepandemic level a few months ago. are all near the top, and America has also government transfers in 2020 and 2021, in
The average unemployment rate across the performed reasonably well. Many big the form of toppedup unemployment
club, at 5.7%, is in line with the postwar European countries, however, such as Brit benefits and stimulus cheques. Canada did
average. And aggregate household income, ain, Germany and Italy, have fared worse. something similar. Other countries, how
adjusted for inflation, is above its preco Spain has done worst of all. ever, such as the Baltics, focused their fis
vid level. The overall picture has been re The change in headline gdp since the cal firepower on protecting firms’ cashflow
markably benign, even as several variants end of 2019, our first indicator, offers a or expanding healthcare capacity. Austria
of the coronavirus have emerged. But it snapshot of economic health. Some coun and Spain seemed neither to preserve jobs
hides stark differences beneath. The pan tries always looked vulnerable to travel nor compensate the losers: in both coun
demic has created winners and losers— bans and a collapse in services spending— tries real household income is still around
and the dispersion between them is likely in particular those in southern Europe, 6% below its prepandemic level.
to persist in 2022. which rely heavily on tourism. Other plac What about companies? Stockmarket
In order to assess these differences, The es, including Belgium and Britain, suffered performance hints at their health, as well
Economist has gathered data on five eco high levels of covid19 infections and as a country’s attractiveness to foreign in
nomic and financial indicators—gdp, deaths, which limited consumer spending. vestors. Share prices in Britain are slightly
household incomes, stockmarket perfor Granular data help fill in the picture. lower today than on the eve of the pandem
mance, capital spending and government The change in household income gives a ic—a reflection, perhaps, of Brexitin
indebtedness—for 23 rich countries. We sense of how well families have done, as it duced uncertainty. Britain also hosts fewer
have ranked each economy according to includes not just earnings from employ companies in the highergrowth sectors
how well it has performed on each mea ment but also handouts from govern that have benefited from pandemicin
sure, creating an overall score (the table on ments. Our measure is in real terms, which duced technology adoption and lower in
the next page shows the overall ranking, adjusts for reduced purchasing power as a terest rates. America, which has more such
012
54 Finance & economics The Economist January 1st 2022
many journeys to workplaces fell to about
League table of nations 25% and 16% below prepandemic levels,
OECD countries, % change during the covid-19 pandemic* respectively, in the week to December 23rd.
In Britain, where the government has is
Selected countries Household income sued guidance to work from home, they
(Ranking out of 23†) GDP per person Share prices‡ Investment were 30% lower (see chart 1). By contrast,
Denmark (1) 2.1 3.4 57.3 12.1 retail and recreationrelated activity has
continued to recover in all three countries.
Sweden (3) 2.1 2.0 50.4 5.6
This suggests that people may have be
Norway (4) 3.5 4.0 31.3 -8.5
come more discriminating about when to
United States (10) 1.4 6.2 24.4 3.6 leave the house, especially as the festive
Canada (=11) -1.4 9.4 25.9 0.7 season began. It might also indicate that
France (=15) -0.1 0.7 17.4 1.3 people who can easily work from home
were doing so, a sign of the economy’s in
Italy (=15) -1.3 -0.2 18.5 6.9
creased adaptability to new variants.
Germany (=20) -1.1 -0.9 15.6 -1.9
Other measures show that the hospital
Japan (=20) -1.9 1.2 17.4 -3.8 ity industry is taking a knock. Fewer peo
Britain (22) -2.1 -2.3 -2.2 -7.4 ple are eating at restaurants than in 2019,
Spain (23) -6.6 -6.3 -7.2 -6.5 according to data from OpenTable, a book
ing platform. In America and Britain there
*Compares Q3 2021, or latest available data, with Q4 2019. Share-price data are monthly figures †Average score of five indicators: changes in were 1215% fewer diners in the week to De
real GDP, real household income per person, share prices, gross fixed capital formation, public debt to GDP ‡National all-share or broad index
Sources: OECD; IMF; World Bank; national statistics; The Economist
cember 20th than in the same period in
2019 (see chart 2 on next page).
Omicron also seems to have contribut
firms, has seen its stockmarket jump. But it By the end of next year, the oecd expects ed to travel disruptions. That has been
has nothing on the bourses of northern Eu the combined gdp of our three highest most notable in America and China, where
rope, where prices have soared. Three of ranked countries to be 5% higher than its domestic air travel had more or less re
the ten biggest firms by market capitalisa prepandemic level. Output for the three turned to normal. In the week to December
tion on the Danish market are in health worst performers, meanwhile, is expected 26th some 3,500 domestic and interna
care, decent stocks to hold in a pandemic. to be just 1% higher than it was before co tional flights that started or finished in
Capital spending, our fourth measure, vid19. The uneven effects of the pandem America were cancelled, according to
provides a gauge of businesses’ optimism ic, in other words, will endure. n FlightAware, a data firm—about 2.5% of the
about the future. Some countries are in the total number of flights. That compares
middle of a capex boom: in America, for in with a cancellation rate of 0.7% in the same
stance, entrepreneurs are spotting oppor Real-time data week in 2019. American airlines have
tunities created by the pandemic, and blamed covidrelated staff shortages and
companies are spending big on technol Omicron omens bad weather for the cancellations. The
ogies that make working from home more number of passengers passing through
efficient. In October Goldman Sachs, a American airports on December 22nd and
bank, forecast that s&p 500 companies 23rd slightly exceeded that in the same per
would spend 18% more on capex and re iod in 2019. But only 3.2m made journeys
search and development in 2022 than they on the 24th and 25th, compared with more
The economic effects of the rapidly
did in 2019. Investment in some other plac than 5m in 2019.
spreading variant
es, by contrast, is more sedate. Norway has These indicators give only a limited
seen cuts to oilandgas capex.
Our last indicator is public indebted
ness. All else equal, a big rise in govern
W hat is the economic impact of Omi
cron? The latest variant of the coro
navirus has let rip at such a ferocious pace
view of the economy. But they may well
capture the areas that are most likely to be
affected by fresh outbreaks of covid19. An
ment debt is worse than a small one, since that forecasters are still catching their alysts at Moody’s, a rating agency, have re
it could indicate potentially larger tax rises breath, and it will be some time before its vised down their estimates of growth in
and spending cuts in the future. Not every economic effects become apparent in the America in early 2022 partly because of re
country has amassed enormous debts dur official data, which are published with a
ing the pandemic, even if America, Britain, lag. But a number of speedier, albeit par
Canada and others certainly have. Swedish tial, indicators can provide some insight Stay in or go out? 1
public debt has risen by just six percentage into how consumers and workers may be Britain, mobility index*, % change
points as a share of gdp. This is a reflec adjusting their behaviour. relative to pre-pandemic baseline
tion, perhaps, of the fact that the country Consider first people’s willingness to go 20
largely avoided strict lockdowns, necessi out and about. A mobility index using real
tating less fiscal support. time data from Google and constructed by Travel to retail 0
and recreation
The spread of the Omicron variant is The Economist includes visits to workplac -20
likely to curtail growth in early 2022 (see es, retail and recreation sites, and tran
next story). But the economic recovery is sport hubs. This measure has been reason -40
Travel to
still likely to continue over the year, and ably stable in America, albeit at levels be work
-60
the overall picture will probably mask va low prepandemic norms, and has fallen a Average†
riation again. The oecd expects some of little in Britain and Germany in recent -80
the worst performers to start catching up: days. But underlying those headline fig 2020 2021‡
Italy is forecast to grow by 4.6% in 2022, ures are bigger differences depending on *Seven-day moving average †Visits to sites of retail and
recreation, workplaces and transit stations ‡To Dec 23rd
above the average pace for the club of 3.9%. the kind of activity. The return to the office Sources: Our World in Data; Google; The Economist
But the laggards have a long way to go. seems to have stalled. In America and Ger
012
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