Risk Management and Resilience
Derin Ural
College of Engineering
University of Miami
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI
COLLEGE of ENGINEERING
Transforming Lives Through Education, Research, Innovation and Service 1
Reference: FEMA Higher Education Program
UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI
COLLEGE of ENGINEERING
Transforming Lives Through Education, Research, Innovation and Service 2
Risk Perception Fallibility Conclusion 1
Cognitive limitations, coupled
with the anxieties generated by
facing life as a gamble, cause
uncertainty to be denied, risks to
be distorted and statements of
fact to be believed with
unwarranted confidence.
**Slovic, Paul, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein. 1979.
“Rating the Risks.” Environment. V21, No.3. Pp. 14-20, 36-39. April.
Session 15 3
Risk Perception Fallibility Conclusion 2
Perceived risk is influenced (and
sometimes biased) by the
imaginability and memorability
of the hazard. People may,
therefore, not have valid
perceptions even for familiar
risks.
**Slovic, Paul, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein. 1979.
“Rating the Risks.” Environment. V21, No.3. Pp. 14-20, 36-39. April.
Session 15 4
Risk Perception Fallibility Conclusion 3
Risk management experts’ risk perceptions
correspond closely to statistical frequencies of death.
Laypeople’s risk perceptions are based in part on
frequencies of death, but there are some striking
discrepancies. It appears that for laypeople, the
concept of risk includes qualitative aspects such as
dread and the likelihood of a mishap being fatal.
Laypeople’s risk perceptions are also affected by
catastrophic potential.
**Slovic, Paul, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein. 1979.
“Rating the Risks.” Environment. V21, No.3. Pp. 14-20, 36-39. April.
Session 15 5
Factor 1: Factors Related to Dread
• Dreaded vs. Not Dreaded • Not Equitable vs. Equitable
• Uncontrollable vs. • Not Easily Reduced vs.
Controllable Easily Reduced
• Global Catastrophic vs. Not • Risk Increasing vs. Risk
Global Catastrophic
Decreasing
• Consequences Fatal vs.
Consequences Not Fatal • Involuntary vs. Voluntary
• Catastrophic vs. Individual • Affects Me vs. Doesn’t
• High Risk to Future Affect Me
Generations vs. Low Risk to • Not Preventable vs.
Future Generations Preventable
**Slovic, Paul, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein. 1979.
“Rating the Risks.” Environment. V21, No.3. Pp. 14-20, 36-39. April.
Session 15 6
Factor 2: Factors Related to How Much is Known
About the Risk
• Not Observable vs. Observable
• Unknown to Those Exposed vs. Known
to Those Exposed
• Effect Delayed vs. Effect Immediate
• New Risk vs. Old Risk
• Risk Unknown to Science vs. Risk Known
to Science
**Slovic, Paul, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein. 1979.
“Rating the Risks.” Environment. V21, No.3. Pp. 14-20, 36-39. April. Session 15 7
Risk Perception Fallibility Conclusion 4
Disagreements about risk should not
be expected to evaporate in the
presence of ‘evidence’. Definitive
evidence, particularly about rare
hazards, is difficult to obtain. Weaker
information is likely to be interpreted
in a way that reinforces existing beliefs.
**Slovic, Paul, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein. 1979.
“Rating the Risks.” Environment. V21, No.3. Pp. 14-20, 36-39. April.
Session 15 8
Social Constructs of Risk
• Socio-Economic Characteristics
• People’s Knowledge
• People’s Ignorance
• People’s Ability to Cope With Hazards
• People’s Ability to Access Help
**Vedantam, Shankar. 2003. “More Afraid Than We Should Be.”
The Washington Post. March 31. P.A6.
Session 15 9
Various Ways to Present Statistical Risk
1. Deaths per million people in the population
2. Deaths per million people within x miles of the
source of exposure
3. Deaths per unit of concentration
4. Deaths per facility
5. Deaths per ton of air toxin released
6. Deaths per ton of air toxin absorbed by people
7. Deaths per ton of chemical produced
8. Deaths per million dollars of product produced
9. Loss of life expectancy associated with exposure to
the hazard
**Slovic, Paul, and Elke Weber. 2002. “Perception of Risk
Posed by Extreme Events.” Presented at Risk Management Session 15 10
Strategies in an Uncertain World. Palisades, NY. 4/12-13/2002.
Risk Comparisons
• “On average, cigarettes kill as many people as would
die if three passenger-laden jumbo jets crashed every
day, month after month, year after year.
• “In one year, cigarettes kill more Americans than died in
World War I, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War
combined.
• “The annual death toll associated with cigarette
smoking is equal to that of a hydrogen bomb dropped
in the heart of a city such as Miami, Kansas City,
Cleveland, or wherever.”
**Warner, Kenneth E. 1989. “The Epidemiology of Coffin Nails.” In
Health Risks and the Press: Coverage on Media Coverage of Risk
Assessment and Health. Washington, D.C. The Media Institute. Session 15 11
How Safe is Safe Enough?
•Zero Level of Risk to the Public
•Best of available alternatives
•‘De Minimis’
•1 in 100,000
•1 in 1,000,000
Session 15 12
