Professional Documents
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Arvind Fashions
BSE SENSEX S&P CNX
60,617 18,056 CMP: INR285 Not Rated
Cleanup phase over; focus on profitable growth
Doing the right things
Stock Info
Bloomberg ARVINDFASN IN
Arvind Fashion has seen a tumultuous phase since its listing around three years
Equity Shares (m) 132.3 ago at ~INR460 and is now down 40%. The last two years have been particularly
M.Cap.(INRb)/(USDb) 37.7 /0.5 challenging due to COVID. This has triggered four rounds of equity raise,
Financials Snapshot (INR b) including the Flipkart backing, which has reduced its leverage. The business has
INRb FY19 FY20 FY21 become much leaner, in addition to the company’s decision to cast aside the
Sales 46.4 38.7 22.0 long tail of loss-making brands and sell the value retail chain “Unlimited.” We
EBITDA 2.9 -1.2 -0.1 see a change in the management philosophy from “chasing growth to “chasing
Adj. PAT 0.2 -6.9 -4.4 profitable growth.” It now focuses on six key brands (contributing ~70% to
EBITDA Margin (%) 6.2 -3.0 -0.3
revenue) – USPA, Arrow, Tommy Hilfiger, and Flying Machine among the power
brands and CK and Sephora under emerging brands (~10% revenue) – with a) a
Adj. EPS (INR) 3.7 -120.1 -76.9
revenue scale of INR30b in the pre-COVID base and the ability to do high-single-
EPS Gr. (%) 66.3 LP -36.0
digit to low-double-digit margins (pre-Ind-AS 116).
BV/Sh. (INR) 211.5 119.1 102.5
Ratios Focus on power brands to drive disciplined growth
Net D:E 0.6 1.7 1.5
The segment (which contributes ~70% to revenue) has seen steady recovery
with positive LTL growth in the last few months. Going forward, the focus would
RoE (%) 1.8 -72.7 -69.4
be on monetizing brand value through franchisee-led store expansions. The
RoCE (%) 12.1 -22.4 -11.7
Retail segment contributes 35–40% to revenue. It aims to add 150–200
Payout (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0
exclusive brand outlets (EBOs) each year through the Franchise Owned,
Valuations
Franchise Operated (FOFO) route. It plans to expand largely in power brands on
P/E (x) 76.6 -2.4 -3.7
the current base of 800–900 stores, implying 15–20% new store additions.
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 -24.3 NA Multi-brand outlets (MBOs), which contribute 10–15% to revenue, have seen
EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.7 1.1 muted recovery from COVID. Also, the penetration of the online channel in tier
Div. Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 2/3 cities and elongated working capital have posed challenges. It further plans
FCF Yield (%) 0.9 3.0 -4.7 to add 5–10 Sephora stores every year, on the base of 24 stores, spending
about INR30–50m. The key focus is on a) expanding- into tier 2 towns by
reducing store size from 2–3k sq.ft to 1k sq.ft, b) initiating online and
marketplace models, and c) increasing the range of lower price point SKUs from
2.5k/product currently.
Can the online channel gain a bigger piece of the pie with the Flipkart
backing?
The last 2–3 years have seen a big push for Arvind Fashion’s online foray, similar
to most retailers. On the back of the COVID-led lockdowns, Arvind Fashion’s
online share increased from low double digit digits to 30% of revenue
(annualized revenue run-rate estimated at INR10b in 2QFY22). Earlier, only
merchandise from the old season was sold to online market players on an
outright basis. Now, even new season merchandise is well-received online.
Moreover, the tie-up with Flipkart is creating new opportunities. For instance,
online players are now ordering specific merchandise outright, piloting
promotional campaigns in select categories at sharper pricing to drive higher
volumes at limited fixed costs. This presents a huge opportunity to earn and
would potentially double revenue over the next 3–4 years. This could prove a
big opportunity for specific brands such as Flying Machine.
Aliasgar Shakir - Research Analyst (Aliasgar.Shakir@MotilalOswal.com)
Harsh Gokalgandhi - Research Analyst (Harsh.Gokalgandhi@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.
Arvind Fashions
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Flying Machine (279 stores – 500 sq ft stores) has 50% coming from digital
given its JV with Flipkart, while for the remaining 50%, the contribution of
retail and distribution is higher, with the LFS mix being lower.
CK (69 stores) and Sephora (24 stores of 2000–2500 sq ft), being premium
brands, are largely Retail-led businesses. The typical high-street format has a
higher store size, while stores at malls are relatively smaller in size at 1000–
1500sq ft.
Revenue outlook
Overall with the online channel and Retail segment firing, it has the potential
to achieve revenue of INR45–50b over the next three years.
It has the potential to add 150–200 EBOs each year, mainly in power brands, on
the current base of 800–900 stores, implying 15–20% new store additions. The
store additions may come largely through the franchise route (inventory on a
consignment basis, with a security deposit). The Company Owned, Company
Operated (COCO) model would be only for Sephora.
LFS and MBO should see flat to single-digit growth. Although MBO gives a good
full-price sell-through, the elongated WC cycle in the past has been a concern.
The management focus is now on ensuring profitability and a lean balance sheet
instead of chasing growth, as seen in the past.
Sephora operates 24 stores currently and has the capability to add 5–10 stores
every year, with capex of INR3–5m/store. Sephora has a healthy average order
value of INR3,000. There are three key focus points here: a) expanding in tier 2
cities by reducing the store size from 2,000–3,000 sq.ft to 1,000 sq.ft stores; b)
initiating the online and marketplace models to drive growth and scalability,
with better inventory utilization; and c) increasing the range of lower price point
SKUs from INR2,500 currently to below INR2,500 to expand the target market.
Currently, it sells 10k SKUs of the 25k SKUs provided by Sephora. However, it has
the potential to drive 20–25% growth by expanding the retail network. If the
growth opportunity from digital channel is considered, it could see much higher
growth.
EBITDA outlook
On INR30b in revenue, stable-state margins could be 8% (pre-Ind AS 116). In
2QFY22, it has achieved a positive EBITDA margin, which should improve to the
high single digits over the next 2–3 years. Thus, it has the potential to achieve
INR4–4.5b in EBITDA on a revenue base of INR40–45b.
Historically, power brands have achieved 12% margins. However:
In the last few years, the high margin business from institutional and MBO
(nearly INR6b) in Arrow has been curtailed.
In USPA, the INR1.50–2b Footwear and Innerwear businesses (15–20% of
USPA’s brand revenue of INR10b) are profitable. Footwear was started two
years ago (via online and Retail). Innerwear was started three years ago in
FY19 (predominantly via MBO and Retail). Growth for Innerwear would be
higher.
Adjusted for these two factors, power brands would achieve 10–12%
margins. At an overall level, it should achieve high-single-digit to double-
digit margins, if we adjust for lower profits in Footwear and Innerwear.
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10.1
(16.7)
(51.7) (43.1) (0.3)
0.8 2.3 2.9 2.3
42.2 46.4 38.7 22.0
12.9
(0.1)
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
Exhibit 8: Segmental revenues impacted in FY21 (INR b) Exhibit 9: Segmental EBITDA trend (INR b)
Power Brands Emerging Brands Speciality Power Brands Emerging Brands Speciality
28.0 3.4
25.9
23.1 2.8
20.0 2.2
1.8
15.2 1.1
11.1 11.1 0.4
8.1 9.5 (0.5) (0.2) (0.4) (0.5)
7.0 5.5
5.3 5.0 4.6
2.2 (0.3) (0.1) (0.4) (0.3)
(0.9)
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
FY21
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Arvind Fashions
Exhibit 10: Consolidated revenue at 73% of pre-COVID levels Exhibit 11: EBITDA turns positive in 2QFY22
Revenues (INR b) QoQ Growth (%) EBITDA (INR b) EBITDA margins (%)
12.6
6.9
11.7
11.4
319.8
11.2
8.1
(10.4) (14.4)
9.0
9.0
154.4
7.7
1.0
(114.7)
7.1
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.2
1.1
1.1
0.7
0.7
0.6
20.1 4.1 (7.2) 24.2 1.4 (14.7)
4.4
(22.9) (37.4) 106.4
3.2
(0.1)
2QFY21 (1.2)(0.5)
(0.5)
(85.4) (58.5)
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
2QFY22
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
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Ratios
Y/E March FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21
Basic (INR)
EPS 3.3 2.4 4.0 -127.5 -81.7
Cash EPS 11.2 27.9 32.1 -47.0 -26.0
BV/Share 121.1 211.0 224.6 126.5 108.8
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Payout (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Valuation (x)
P/E 85.3 120.0 72.2 -2.2 -3.5
Cash P/E 25.4 10.2 8.9 -6.1 -11.0
P/BV 2.4 1.4 1.3 2.3 2.6
EV/Sales 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.8
EV/EBITDA 28.0 10.0 8.4 -24.6 -559.6
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
FCF per share -16.7 -42.8 3.7 14.6 -11.1
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 3.6 1.4 1.8 -72.7 -69.4
RoCE 26.7 7.5 12.1 -22.4 -11.7
RoIC 30.3 8.2 14.5 -32.7 -28.5
Working Capital Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) NA NA NA NA NA
Asset Turnover (x) 1.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.0
Inventory (Days) 267 63 78 123 134
Debtor (Days) 71 68 69 74 104
Creditor (Days) 211 92 97 17 155
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.1 1.0
Interest Cover Ratio 1.0 1.0 1.1 -1.9 -1.4
Net Debt/Equity 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.7 1.5
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