Evaluating the Accuracy of Using the 85th Percentile Operating Speed to Determine Posted

Speed Limits on Road Segments

A Thesis

Presented to the

Graduate Faculty of the

University of Louisiana at Lafayette

In Partial Fulfillment of the

Requirements for the Degree

Master of Science

Hilda Ofori-Addo

Spring 2021
© Hilda Ofori-Addo

2021

All Rights Reserved

 Evaluating the Accuracy of Using the 85th Percentile Operating Speed to Determine Posted
Speed Limits on Road Segments

Hilda Ofori-Addo

APPROVED:

Elisabeta Mitran, Chair

Assistant Research Professor of Civil Engineering

Julius A. Codjoe
Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering

Raju Thapa
Assistant Research Professor of Civil Engineering

Xiaoduan Sun
Professor of Civil Engineering

Mary Farmer-Kaiser
Dean of the Graduate School
Immense gratitude to God and the divine helpers He brought my way.
I will forever remember their assistance.
 “Trust in the Lord with all your heart;
do not depend on your own understanding.
Seek his will in all you do,
and he will show you which path to take”
— Proverbs 3:5-6 NLT
 Acknowledgments

Through all the changing scenes of life, in trouble and in joy, the praises of my God

shall still my heart and tongue employ. I am grateful to God Almighty for the enormous

grace and peace He gave me throughout my journey in graduate school. I am thankful for my

supervisor, Dr. Elisabeta Mitran, for pushing me to the best version of myself and guiding me

on the right path to successfully complete this chapter of my life. I am grateful.

To the other professors and committee members, Dr. Julius Codjoe, Dr. Raju Thapa

and Dr. Xiaoduan Sun, I would like to say a big thank you for their time and patience in

guiding me during my research work. I am deeply indebted to you all.

Last but not least, I appreciate the prayerful support system I am privileged to have.

To my family, I cannot thank you enough. To my friends and loved ones, you will forever

hold a special place in my heart.

vi
 Table of Contents
Dedication .......................................................................................................................... iv

Epigraph .............................................................................................................................. v

Acknowledgments............................................................................................................... vi

List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... ix

List of Figures ...................................................................................................................... x

List of Abbreviations .......................................................................................................... xi

Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ........................................................................................................ 1
1.1.2 Setting design speeds ........................................................................... 5
1.1.3 Louisiana speed limits ......................................................................... 6
1.2 Problem Definition ............................................................................................. 7
1.3 Contribution of Thesis ....................................................................................... 8
1.4 Thesis Scope ....................................................................................................... 9
1.5 Thesis Organization ........................................................................................... 9

Literature Review .............................................................................................................. 10

2.1 Relationship between Different Speed Types .................................................. 10
2.1.1 Posted speed and the operating speed ............................................... 10
2.1.2 Design speed and operating speed ................................................... 111
2.1.3 Design speed and posted speed .......................................................... 12
2.2 Speed Prediction Models and Roadway Characteristics. ............................... 13

Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 19
3.1 Site Selection .................................................................................................... 19
3.2 Data Source and Collection ............................................................................. 20
3.2.1 Data summary.................................................................................... 23
3.3 Study Approach ............................................................................................... 24
3.3.1 85th percentile speed of vehicles on each segment............................ 24
3.3.2 Linear regression model .................................................................... 26
3.3.3 Logistic regression model .................................................................. 26
3.3.4 Measures of effectiveness................................................................... 27
3.3.5 Crash data and analysis..................................................................... 28

Results and Discussion ...................................................................................................... 30

4.1 Validation for Combined Data ........................................................................ 30
4.1.1 Linear regression model for arterial data......................................... 30
4.1.2 Linear regression model for interstate data ..................................... 31
4.1.3 Linear regression model for combined data ..................................... 32
4.1.4 Normal distribution curve ................................................................. 33

vii
 4.2 Logistic Regression Model ............................................................................... 34
4.2.1 AUC from analysis............................................................................. 36
4.3 Crash Analysis ................................................................................................. 36
4.3.1 Cross-tabular analysis ....................................................................... 36

Conclusion and Recommendations ................................................................................... 45

5.1 Findings and Conclusions of Linear Regression Model.................................. 45
5.2 Findings for Normal Distribution Curve ........................................................ 45
5.3 Findings and Conclusions from the Logistic Regression Model. .................... 46
5.4 Findings and Conclusions from Crash Analysis ............................................. 47
5.5 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 48
5.6 Limitations ....................................................................................................... 49

References .......................................................................................................................... 50

Appendix A ........................................................................................................................ 54

Abstract ............................................................................................................................. 59

Biographical Sketch .......................................................................................................... 61

viii
 List of Tables
Table 1: Impact of PSL reduction on the mean free speeds in urban areas by Silvano and
Bang (2016) [23] ..................................................................................................... 14

Table 2: Summary of Speed Prediction Models Developed from Past Studies. .................... 17

Table 3: Data summary....................................................................................................... 23

Table 4: Output from model for arterials. ............................................................................ 31

Table 5: Output for model for interstate. ............................................................................. 32

Table 6: Output for model for combined data...................................................................... 32

Table 7: Data summary for model....................................................................................... 35

Table 8: Output from model................................................................................................ 36

Table 9: Results for the 85th Percentile Operating Speeds of Sites and their Corresponding
Posted Speeds. ......................................................................................................... 54

Table 10: AADT data for each site. .................................................................................... 57

ix
 List of Figures
Figure 1: Location of study sites across Louisiana. ............................................................. 19

Figure 2: Google snapshots of sites. Source: Google map. .................................................. 20

Figure 3: The Massive Data Downloader dashboard showing the segment codes and the date
and time ranges selected. Source: https://pda.ritis.org/suite/download/ ..................... 21

Figure 4: Cumulative distribution function and trace for 85th percentile operating speed
value for test site 55. ................................................................................................ 25

Figure 5: Normal distribution curves for arterials, interstates and combined data. ............... 34

Figure 6: Number of crashes per mile within the 5mph range.............................................. 37

Figure 7: Number of crashes per mile outside the 5mph range. ........................................... 38

Figure 8: Number of crashes per area type and land use. ..................................................... 39

Figure 9: Number of crashes per mile according to road alignment and median type. .......... 40

Figure 10: Severity conditions for the two speed difference categories................................ 41

Figure 11: Primary contributing factor for the two speed difference categories. .................. 42

Figure 12: Manner of collision for the two speed difference categories. .............................. 43

Figure 13: Number of crashes according to roadway departure for the two speed difference
categories. ................................................................................................................ 44

x
 List of Abbreviations

AADT Average annual daily traffic

AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation

Officials

AUC Area under the Curve

FHWA Federal Highway Administration

IDE Integrated Development Interface

ITE Institute of Transportation Engineers

DOT Department of Transportation

LaDOTD Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development

LA Louisiana

mph Miles per hour

MUTCD Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices

N/A Not Applicable

NCHRP National Cooperative Highway Research Program

NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

PSL Posted Speed Limit

OLS Ordinary Least Square

RITIS Regional Integrated Transportation Information System

RMSE Root Mean Square Error

RSS Sum of Squares Residuals

TSS Total Sum of Squares

xi
 1.0 Introduction
1.1 Background

Speed is considered an essential component of transportation infrastructure and

design because it, directly and indirectly, measures the safety and mobility of the roadway.

Therefore it is essential to regulate the operating speeds of vehicles to ensure that speeds are

not too high to pose dangers on the roads, and in the same vein, they are not too low to

obstruct mobility of vehicles [1]. According to the American Association of State Highway

and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) green book [2], speeds are categorized into different

components such as posted speeds, operating speed, design speed, and running speeds.

Posted speed is a type of speed that lawfully indicates the maximum speed limit a

vehicle can operate on a road segment. These speed limits are displayed at a particular spot

along the roadway as a regulatory sign for drivers using that road segment and they are

defined in multiples of 5 mph [3]. Posted speed on a road segment generally represents the

speed considered by majority of drivers traversing the road as reasonable and safe taking into

account the traffic and roadway conditions of that segment [4].

On the other hand, several definitions have been used to describe the operating speed

on a highway since the 1990s editions of the AASHTO green book. The 1994 edition of the

AASHTO green book [5] defined operating speed as "the highest overall speed at which a

driver can travel on a given highway under favorable weather conditions and under

prevailing traffic conditions without at any time exceeding the safe speed as determined by

the design speed on a section-by-section basis". Due to the ambiguity of this definition,

roadways were rarely designed by that. Currently, according to AASHTO green book 2011

edition [2], operating speed is described as the speed traveled by drivers on a road segment

1
under free-flow conditions. Free-flow conditions however are defined by the Highway

Capacity Manual [6] as the “theoretical speed when the density and flow rate on a study

segment are both zero”. This means that drivers can operate at desired speed without being

affected by upstream or downstream factors. Operating speeds of roads are defined to

directly correlate to the posted speeds because the 85th percentile of these speeds are used in

determining the posted speed limit.

While the operating speed directly relates to the posted speed, there is no strong

correlation between the posted speed and design speed or the operating speed and the design

speed. The AASHTO green book [2] describes design speed as speed chosen or inferred to

determine the different geometric characteristics of the roadway. The speed selected is

required to be rational with the terrain characteristics of the roadway, expected operating

speed, land use, and functional class of the roadway because these variables are dependent on

the design speed for accurate estimation. Higher design speeds are selected when the road

terrain is leveled, and environmental conditions are favorable to achieve safety, mobility, and

efficiency of the road.

Unlike the other speeds explained above, running speed is obtained by dividing the

length of the road section by the time it takes the vehicle to travel that length of the section.

Running speed is an essential factor in traffic studies because it is an accurate measure of

calibrating the level of service of the roadway and travelers’ cost and it is estimated by the

measure of spot speeds along with a continuous measure of traffic flow at one or more

locations at a particular time.

In the estimation of posted speed limits, the most significant element considered by

most traffic engineers is the speed at which a vast number of vehicles are operating at. The

2
Manual for Traffic Uniform Control Devices (MUTCD) [7] specifically states that “when a

speed limit is to be posted, it should be within 10 km/h or 5 mph of the 85th percentile speed

of free-flowing traffic”. Nonetheless, other road characteristics and factors such as roadside

development, shoulder condition, road alignment, sight distance pedestrian, and parking

activities should be considered as well. Nevertheless, there are no written guidelines and

steps on how to effectively calibrate these factors mentioned therefore leaving experts to

their own judgment in estimating speed limits. Setting speed limits this way can result in

speed discrepancies which tend to confuse drivers using the roadway. In situations where

speed limits are set higher than what majority of drivers expect, a higher frequency and level

of severity of crashes may be experienced on the roadway. Notwithstanding, lower speed

limits set can lead to majority of drivers not obeying the posted speeds on the road segment

and can also lead to higher speed variation of vehicles which contributes to the occurrence of

a crash [8].

Generally, four approaches are used to set speed limits. They include the engineering

approach, the expert system approach, optimization, and the injury minimization or safety

system. The engineering approach is the most familiar method used in setting speed limits

especially in North America. The approach involves specific steps that include collecting,

coordinating, and analyzing data to calculate the speed limit. The data is collated based on

certain variables such as speed, traffic conditions, crash history, and road characteristics [9].

The engineering approach can be divided into two techniques namely, the operating speed

method and the road risk method [10]. Ideally, posted speeds are estimated using the

operating speed method. This technique uses the 85th percentile operating speeds obtained

through spot speeds studies under free-flowing conditions as the base speed and adjusted this

3
speed according to the roadway characteristics. Road risk method on the other hand uses the

functional classification of the road and the prevailing land use and road conditions as the

two most important variables to determine the speed limit, and the speed limit is adjusted

according to the risks associated with the roadway.

Expert system approach is a technique that is very popular in Australia to determine

speed limits. This method of setting speed limit involves the use of computer programs that

imitate expert thoughts to make sound judgments and decide on the appropriate speed limit.

The Federal Highway Authority in collaboration with the Australian Road Research Board

(ARRB) have adopted this approach to develop the USLIMITS which is programmed to

adapt to the conditions of the United States (US) in setting speed limits. The program is

forced to set speed limits within the 50th to 85th percentile range. A higher version dubbed

USLIMITS2 was further developed to provide complete information about the factors and

the logic that influence the speed limits recommended [8]. The USLIMITS2 is used to

develop speed limits for all types of roads ranging from rural local roads to residential roads

and urban freeways. The system employs a web-based tool and allows the program to adjust

the speeds based on traffic and environmental conditions, unlike the operating method that

leaves experts to adjust the speeds based on their own judgment [11].

The optimization approach, which is quite different from the engineering approach

and the expert system approach, involves selecting speed limits based on suggestions from

individuals in the society or the community as a whole. Optimizing speed limits reflects

minimum cost of vehicle operation, crash, travel time, and other societal costs although this

method of setting speed limit is hard adopted because certain variables cannot be accounted

therefore it is difficult to reach a consensus on the speed value. The speed model is

4
developed to express the total cost per mile as a function of the posted speed limit. Although

this method is rarely used, it is more useful in settings where cyclists, pedestrians, and

vehicles that share the road have little idea of the effects of their speeds on other road users.

It is also useful occasionally in snowy areas and other roadways except for urban freeways

[10].

The safe system or injury minimization method of setting speed limits is also another

method of setting speed limits. This involves the use of crash types and patterns and the

likely occurrence of a crash as the base premise for establishing speed limits. This technique

is prevalent in countries like Sweden and the Netherlands to create roads that solely aim at

safety and preventing the creation of environments that can lead to fatality. Therefore,

motorists are prohibited from speeds that can result in a fatal or severe injury crash. Although

the primary basis for this method is the crash type which is more attributed to the speed

factor, the approach acknowledges the effects of other factors which are likely to contribute

to the occurrence of a crash as well [10].

1.1.2 Setting design speeds. Design speeds are selected and set to be similar to the

anticipated operating speed of the road. However, several studies have shown that the

observed 85th percentile operating speed tends to be higher than the design speed on certain

types and portions of the roadway such as vertical and horizontal curvatures of urban

residential collectors, rural two-lane highways, and suburban arterial streets. This explains

that although the design speed of the highway is built to be the maximum safe speed, it could

be lower than the operating speed. Nonetheless, it is not necessarily unsafe as long as the

margin is not large. When setting the design speed, a considerable amount of built-in safety

5
factors is included and therefore accommodates for a higher operating speed making the road

facility safe for travel [4].

On the other hand, when higher design speeds are selected on leveled terrain and

favorable conditions, it is important to factor in the needs of travelers on the road. In that

case, a speed distribution curve in the form of an S-shape is be plotted with observed speed

against the percentage of vehicles, and a higher design speed value is considered from the

results of the speed distribution curve [2]. One limitation when setting design speeds is that it

may not factor in the magnitude of unfavorable weather conditions which will require drivers

to adjust their speeds on the highway during such conditions [4].

1.1.3 Louisiana speed limits. Louisiana state statutory speed limits ensure that most

drivers can drive safely at a predetermined maximum speed under free-flow conditions.

However, motorists are advised to slow down during adverse weather conditions, on curves

or hills, when approaching potential hazards along the roadway, and for emergency vehicles

[12]. Louisiana state law RS 32:61 institutes the following speed limits unless otherwise

posted or altered by the districts. The law requires that the speed limit on a highway should

not exceed 55 miles per hour (mph) except for multi-lane divided highways and interstates

that are permitted to have speed limits of 65mph and 70 mph, respectively. Motorists may be

allowed to operate beyond the speed limit only within speed zones that are established by the

Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (LaDOTD) [13]. Speed limits are

set using the operating speed method and the goal of the LaDOTD is to set speed limits that

ensure maximum safety by using sound engineering principles. LaDOTD also is mandated to

set speed limits for only state-owned roadways. All other roadways are governed by the local

governing bodies [12]

6
1.2 Problem Definition

State legislatures establish and enforce speed limits on specific roadways such as

interstates, rural highways, and urban streets, and these speeds are known as statutory speed

limits. However, on roadways where these statutory speed limits are inappropriate, the state

allows Department of Transportations (DOTs) to establish a reasonable and safe speed by

adjusting the statutory speeds to estimate these altered speed limits. These altered speed

limits are established based on an engineering study performed according to traffic

engineering practices before being displayed on roadways as posted speed limits [14].

Posted speed limits are instituted on roadways because it generally reflects the safe

and reasonable speed assumed by most drivers on the roadway. The MUTCD proposes that

transportation agencies set speed limits within a 5mph range of the 85th percentile speed of

free-flowing traffic [7]. In Louisiana, all speed limits are set by the LaDOTD using the 85 th

percentile speed and speed limits set outside of the 85th percentile due to special

circumstances need to be justified before allowed on roadways. These special circumstances

may include high enforcement roadways, inadequate or non-existing shoulders along with a

crash history, and geometric constraints such as a 2 or more mile horizontal curve [15].

Although the 85th percentile is considered to show the collective judgment of most drivers as

the appropriate and safe speed, some previous studies have shown inconsistencies in using

this percentile as the base speed in determining the posted speed limit for different types of

roads [16] [17]. The dangers associated with wrongfully estimating posted speed limits tend

to result in varying vehicle operating speeds on the road segment. This has the tendency of

increasing the likelihood for a crash to occur or the crash severity level by increasing or

decreasing the distance needed for a vehicle to slow down or come to a halt when

7
encountering an event or increasing the impact of a collision [18]. Due to this, there is the

need to investigate the use of the 85th percentile operating speed method as a key

consideration factor for setting posted speed limits on roadways through field investigations.

Subsequent paragraphs in this report will discuss the use of space-mean speeds obtained

probe data instead of the conventional approach of using spot speeds from radar guns or

meters to evaluate the 85th percentile speeds.

1.3 Contribution of Thesis

The main objective of this thesis is to evaluate the use of the 85th percentile speed as

a key consideration factor in determining the posted speed limit of a roadway.

The specific objectives are:

i. Conduct a detailed literature review on the design speed limit, operating speed limit,

advisory speed limit, and posted speed limit.

ii. Determine potential sites for operational speed data collection.

iii. Evaluate if the 85th percentile speed is an appropriate base speed in determining

posted speed limit by comparing existing speed limits to operating speeds obtained

from the data collected. This is important to identify if the speed limit reflects the

operating speeds of vehicles on a road segment.

iv. Based on the analysis conducted, determine possible relationships between roadway

features with 85th percentile speed above or below the posted speed limit.

v. Conduct a crash evaluation to check if the discrepancies in the 85th percentile

operating speed and posted speed limit have any correlation on the frequency and

severity of a crash.

8
1.4 Thesis Scope

The scope of this project is limited to meet the outlined objectives of this research. An

important factor that was taken into consideration in selecting the sites was sections of the

roadway that had significant variability in the observed speeds of vehicles. It is important to

note that the study is limited to roadways with the existence of posted speed limits in

Louisiana. A preliminary assessment was conducted by collecting speed data from INRIX

data on Regional Integrated Transportation Information System (RITIS). Variables that were

considered to have any form of influence on the observed speeds of vehicles were obtained

from the LaDOTD open data source and Google Map software. Crash data for selected road

segments were obtained from the LaDOTD crash database.

1.5 Thesis Organization

This thesis is organized into five chapters. The first chapter introduces the entire

research, detailing the observed problem, the objectives of the study, and the scope of work.

Chapter two discusses relevant literature and results of similar work carried out in the US, as

well as current practices in other countries. Chapter three consists of the methodology

employed for the research. Site selection criteria, tools and resources used to collect field

data, software used, and the analytical methods are explained. Chapter four expounds on the

data analysis performed and a summary of the analysis conducted using the necessary

softwares and computational analysis. The chapter also interprets and discusses in detail the

results obtained for each analysis. The fifth chapter concludes the findings from the analysis

and makes reliable recommendations for future posted speed limits design. Limitations of

this work are also listed in this chapter.

9
 2.0 Literature Review

2.1 Relationship between Different Speed Types

The different speeds one way or the other correlate and depends on each other. The

paragraphs below explain the different associations between the speed types and the

influence each has on the other.

2.1.1 Posted speed and the operating speed. There is a strong relationship between

the posted speed limit and the operating speed limit. Selecting a posted speed limit for a

highway is obtained by using the 85th percentile of the observed speeds on the roadway. A

study conducted by Fazio et al [19] on the estimation of free-flow speeds showed that posted

speed limits are accurate estimates of operating speeds and the simplest linear regression

model indicated a very strong positive correlation with a coefficient of +0.99 between the

two. When a scatter graph of the free-flow speed versus the posted speed limit was plotted, a

proportional linear relationship was inferred, which interpreted that as the free-flow speed

increased, higher posted speeds were expected. Although there is a strong correlation

between the operating speed and posted speeds, the interactions between vehicle speed and

roadway characteristics such as road centerline and edge line still show some variabilities in

vehicle operating speeds. In another field study conducted by Fitzpatrick et al. (2003) [20] on

the relationship between operating speed and posted speed, free-flow speed data was

collected from 79 sites in suburban, urban, and rural areas in six states. The goal was to

predict the operating speeds on these selected roads with the roadside variables. The

variables considered for the study were access density, posted speed limit, median type,

parking along with the street, and pedestrian activity level. The results from a graphical

evaluation showed that the posted speed limit had the strongest correlation to the 85th

10
percentile speed, indicating that the higher the posted speed limit, the higher the 85th

percentile speed. The remaining variables considered showed some effects on the 85th

percentile after a further regression analysis but they were not as strong as the posted speed

limit. Similarly, a study that was conducted on 19 suburban arterials with horizontal curves

and 36 tangent sites in Texas [17] showed that the 85th percentile operating speed recorded

on the horizontal curves was mostly influenced by the posted speed limit, the deflection

angle, and the access density. Roads without the posted speed limits were considered and

analyzed to assess the speed limit's significance on the operating speed. Without the speed

limit, only the lane width affected the speed of vehicles on the straight section of the road and

the presence of a median together with roadside development affected the speeds of vehicles

on curve sites. The study proceeded to conclude that higher speeds were expected in

locations with higher posted speeds on suburban arterials horizontal curves.

Although the 85th percentile is used to determine the posted speed limits, highways

with higher crash rates do not use the value obtained from the 85th percentile. In this case, the

85th percentile speed value used in estimating the posted speed may be reduced by 7mph.

Also, national or state maximum speed limit prevents the use of higher posted speed limits on

roadways that obtain higher 85th percentiles [4].

2.1.2 Design speed and operating speed. Design speed has very little effect on the

operating speed on a roadway except for geometric characteristics of the road such as

horizontal curves with smaller radii. This is because the design speed is theoretically selected

to determine geometric features during road design hence it does not reflect the existing

speed operated by vehicles on the road. For instance, in a study [20] conducted on horizontal

curves of a rural two-lane roadway with a radius less than 250m and vertical K-values about

11
20m per change in unit percentage, lower operating speeds were experienced when compared

to the design speed. For sections that recorded values above the design speed limit, the

operating speeds were recorded from 56mph to 68mph for a roadway with a design speed of

approximately 56 mph. Fitzpatrick et al. (1995) [21] also conducted a study to determine the

compatibility of design speed and the 85th percentile operating speed on certain sections of

the roadway. Spot speed data were sampled using laser and radar guns on horizontal and

vertical curves and their approaches on suburban arterials in different cities in Texas. Speeds

were collected in locations just before the midpoint of the horizontal curve, near the crest of

the vertical curve with minimum sight distance, and locations where drivers operated at

desired speeds. The outcome of this study showed that drivers exceeded the design speed

inferred on the curve radius and indicating the safe and reasonable speeds majority of drivers

considered to operate on suburban highway horizontal curves when compared with the

design speed. Design speed less than 55.9mph were found to be below the operating speed of

the curve. Also, there was an increase operating speeds of vehicles as the radius of the

horizontal curve increased. On the other hand, the design speed was acceptable for predicting

the 85th percentile speed on the vertical curves [21].

2.1.3 Design speed and posted speed. Design speed limits selected for roadways are

considered to be the highest speed of the roadway [2]. Posted speeds are established based on

statutory limits except in cases where an engineering study has been performed with respect

to the traffic engineering practices. In cases where the posted speed limits exceed the design

speed, liability concerns are raised even though drivers are safely exceeding the design speed

[22]. An examination of the posted speed, operating speed, and the design speed conducted

by the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) [20] project concluded

12
that the relationship between the posted speed and design speed was not directly defined as

the relationship between posted speed and operating speed. However, there are locations of

the roadway where the posted speeds obtained from the 85th percentile speed are higher than

the roadway design speed. Design speed has been shown to have minimal impact on the

operating speed when there was a horizontal curve with a tight radius and a vertical curve

with a low K-value [20].

2.2 Speed Prediction Models and Roadway Characteristics.

Previous studies have shown that vehicles' operating speeds are directly and indirectly

influenced by certain roadway characteristics and environmental features such as the

available sight distance, the length and degree of a horizontal curve, posted speed limit,

vertical grade, super elevation and Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT). These road

characteristics either cause vehicles to slow their speeds or increase their speeds based on

what drivers assume safe. Several studies have also used linear regression models to predict

the 85th percentile speeds on different types of roadways with different characteristics. Some

of these studies are summarized below.

A research was conducted by Silvano and Bang [23] to identify if there were any

effects on the free flow of vehicles on urban roads with different posted speed limit signs and

road features. The study conducted a before-and-after survey on 118 sites in 11 cities for

different years. Two analyses were undertaken to determine how the free flow speed is

affected when the posted speed limit (PSL) is either increased or decreased using a pairwise

(before and after) method and estimate the mean free-flow speed using a multiple linear

regression method. The results for the first analysis showed in table 1 when the PSL was

decreased from 50km/h to 40km/h indicated that there was a reduction in the mean free-flow

13
speed change by 1.57km/h at a p-value less than 0.001 and the decrease in the 85th percentile

speed by 2.44km/h. The speed variability in terms of the standard deviation also decreased by

0.72. However, when the PSL was increased from 50km/h to 60km/h, the mean free-flow

speed increased by 2.59km/h and the 85th percentile operating speed increased by 2.37km/h.

This analysis pointed out the direct correlation between the mean free-flow speed and the

PSL. Results from the multiple linear regression analysis, however, exhibited a decrease in

mean free-flow when there was the presence of on-street parking, presence of a sidewalk,

city centers areas and increase in mean free-flow speed when arterials in suburban areas with

wider lane width and longer segments were present. The R-squared value recorded was 0.76

which indicated a strong relationship.

Table 1: Impact of PSL reduction on the mean free speeds in urban areas by Silvano and
Bang (2016) [23]
PSL reduction Mean speed 85th Standard Sample size sites
percentile deviation
Before(50km/h) 43.41 52.57 9.09 46,885 47
After (40km/h) 41.84 50.13 8.37 49,712 47
Difference -1.57 -2.44 0.72 N/A N/A

Another study was conducted by Jessen et. al (2001) [24] to predict the operating

speeds on vertical crest curves of rural two-lane highways in Nebraska. Speed data were

collected on 70 sites of a two-lane rural road together with data of crest vertical curve

measurements, roadway and traffic characteristics and a multiple linear regression was

developed. The study modeled the 50th, 85th and the 95th percentile operating speeds of

passenger cars and concluded that as the approach grade increased, the 50th, 85th and 95th

percentiles decreased, and this was evident at location where the sight distance available was

minimum. Also, R-squared values of 0.54 and 0.42 were recorded for models with limit
14
minimum available sight distance and at locations with non-limited stopping sight distance,

respectively, emphasizing the effect of available sight distance on vehicle operating speeds .

Similar to the Jessen et al., Schurr et al (2005) [25] modeled the 50th, 85th and 95th operating

speeds on horizontal curves on approaches to a stop-controlled intersection on two-lane two-

way rural highways in Nebraska. The study concluded that an increase in the deflection angle

generally decreased the speeds and curves with longer length experienced higher operating

speeds. However, the 85th percentile operating speeds decreased when the approach grade

increased. R-squared values of 0.46 and 0.19 were recorded for vehicle operating speeds at

curve midpoint and approach locations respectively.

Lamm et al (1988) [26] developed a model to predict the 85th percentile on horizontal

curves using the ordinary least square regression (OLS) with stepwise specification

procedure on horizontal curves. The study collected data of curves on intersection spacing

and curves on vertical grade. In addition, data was collated for the different vehicle types

such as passenger cars, trucks, vans, and pickups, and roadway with AADT between 400 to

5000 vehicles per hour (vph). The results showed that factors such as the lane width,

shoulder width, and AADT were statistically significant with a p-value of 0.05 with a

goodness of fit (𝑅2 ) value of 0.842. A similar study was conducted by Morrall and Talarico

(1994) [27] on the 85th percentile speed of passenger cars on horizontal curves to estimate the

effect of the degree of curvature on the operating speeds. The regression modeled showed an

Rsquared value of 0.631 indicating a moderately strong relationship.

The length of a tangent and how sharp a curve is at the end of a tangent significantly

influence the maximum speeds vehicles operate on roadways. In study conducted by

Fitzpatrick et.al (2000) [28] on the predicting the 85th percentile speeds on both vertical and

15
horizontal alignment for two lane rural highway, it was found that out of all the geometric

variables examined, the only significant variable that affected the free-flow speed of vehicles

on long tangent was the vertical grade. The linear regression model also showed that for

geometric tangent sections and attached curves (G𝑀𝑙 ) less than 200𝑚2 , a fit to data value of

0.33 was recorded and for (G𝑀𝑙 ) less than 1000, a fit to data value of 0.23 was recorded. This

explains that there was very little to no significant relationship between the 85th percentiles of

vehicles and the lengths of tangents. However, the authors also concluded that long tangents

are likely experience operating speeds similar to those on horizontal curves with a radius

greater or equal to 800m experienced.

According to the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), posted speeds can be estimated

using an assumed free-flow speed when field measurements are not available as long as

certain adjustments are made for rural and suburban multilane. These adjustments are made

to the mimic free-flow speeds taking in account the effects of the median, median type, lane

width, and access point density on the roadway [29]. In a study conducted by Dixon et al.

(1999) [30] to determine the relationship between the posted speeds and the operating speeds

on a rural multilane in Georgia it was observed that there was an increase in mean speed by

3.2mph when the national speed limit of 55mph was increased to 65mph. However, this was

recorded few months after the speed limit was increased. The authors indicated that the mean

speeds were likely to increase further over time. Also, the relationship between the free-flow

speeds and the access density of the road was found not to be statistically significant in the

study. Ali et al. (2007) [31] also conducted a similar study to determine how the free-flow

speed, the posted speed, and the geometric design variables were related on a four-lane urban

street in Virginia. An R-squared value of 0.76 was recorded, showing that the posted speeds

16
had a significant effect on the free flow speed. For instance, sites with posted speeds of

45mph observed mean free-flow speeds of 5mph higher than the speed limit and 8mph higher

on sites with posted speed limits of 35 and 40mph.

Table 2 provides a summary of the studies reviewed in this section. A description of

the dependent variable used in the linear regression model, the independent variable used to

predict the dependent variable, and the R-squared values are detailed in the table.

Table 2: Summary of Speed Prediction Models Developed from Past Studies.

Study Dependent variable Independent variables R-squared

Reference

[23] Mean free-flow speed Area type, Length of 0.76

roadway, Functional class
of road(local and arterial),
Lane width, on- street
parking, sidewalk, speed
limit

[24] 85th percentile operating Minimum available sight 0.54

speed distance, curve

Control locations (non- 0.42

limited stopping distance)

[25] 85th percentile operating Curve segments, minimum 0.46

speeds sight distance

Approach tangent 0.19

[26] 85th percentile operating Horizontal curves, 0.84

speed shoulder width,
superelevation, available
sight distance, vertical
grade, posted speed limit,
AADT

[27] 85th percentile operating Shoulder type(paved or 0.63

speed unpaved), shoulder widths,
grade less than 5%,
circular curves,

17
[28] 85th percentile operating G𝑀𝑙 less 200, horizontal 0.33
speed curves

G𝑀𝑙 less than 1000, 0.23

horizontal curves

[30] Mean free-flow speed Access point, vertical -

grade, traffic volumes,
horizontal curves, segment
close to adjacent to
intersections

[31] Mean free-flow speed Posted speed, median 0.76

width, median type, lane
85th percentile free-flow width, access density, 0.77
speed adjacent land use, segment
length

18
 3.0 Methodology
3.1 Site Selection

The study sites were selected based on:

• Road segments with access to XD identification number.

• Data availability of roadway characteristics and traffic conditions that influenced

operating speeds of vehicles.

• Functional class of the road (interstates and arterials).

• Road alignment (curve or tangent before a curve)

A total of 93 sites were selected in both rural and urban areas consisting of 67

arterials and 26 interstates. The sites were selected randomly to better represent the operating

speeds of vehicles across Louisiana and the locations of the sites are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Location of study sites across Louisiana.

19
Sample snapshots of these sites from Google Earth were included below in Figure 2 to give a

visual representation of the type of sites selected for the study.

a) A tangent segment before a b) A sample site in rural c) A sample curved site

curve area

Figure 2: Google snapshots of sites. Source: Google map.

3.2 Data Source and Collection

The speed data was obtained from INRIX which is generated from the Regional

Integrated Transportation Information System (RITIS) platform, a third-party vendor. The

RITIS platform comprises of different tools based on the query of interest. However, for this

study, the Massive Data Downloader tool was used because it allowed access to more vehicle

probe data for specific locations and time range of interest using XD segment identification

numbers of each site obtained from the attributes table of Louisiana shapefile. Ideally, speeds

are collected at specific locations to determine the speed distribution of a traffic stream. One

limitation in using XD segments was that these segments were represented in linear form and

not point form therefore space mean speeds were collected instead of spot speeds. Due to

this, segments with shorter lengths ranging from 0.006 miles to 0.693 miles were considered.

Figure 3 shows how the XD segments codes were inputted in the Massive Data Downloader,

the time range, and specific day of the week for the data collection.

20
Figure 3: The Massive Data Downloader dashboard showing the segment codes and the date and
time ranges selected. Source: https://pda.ritis.org/suite/download/

Speed data were collected for five different months (January, May, July, October, and

December) chosen randomly for the year 2020 and this was undertaken to observe speeds at

free-flow conditions during different times. For each month, the Saturday of the second week

and Tuesday of the third week with time intervals between 12 pm to 4 pm and 10 am to 1 pm

respectively, were selected.

To ensure that speeds collected were uninterrupted on all sites, traffic congestion

scans were performed on the RITIS platform. Also, free-flowing speeds were collected

during daylight off-peak periods to account for driver visibility. Dry weather conditions were

also considered and to verify that; the selected days, zip codes of each city in which the road

segments were located were obtained from the attributes table of the Louisiana shapefile and

21
inputted into a weather website and the forecast for the specific day was obtained [32]. After

these steps were checked, vehicular speed data were then downloaded from the RITIS

platform. The downloaded files consisted of the average speed per minute, segment lengths,

the coordinates of each segment, and the road name.

Roadway characteristics such as land use, presence of a median, grade of the

roadway, presence of a curb along the roadway, geometric alignment, presence of a shoulder,

median type, and road surface condition were retrieved by plotting coordinates of each site in

Google Earth.

Data on traffic conditions and other road characteristics, which included the

functional classification of the road, the speed limits, AADT, number of lanes per direction,

and area type, shapefiles were downloaded from the LaDOTD Data portal [33]. These

shapefiles were projected into ArcMap software, and data for each variable was collected

from the attribute tables in the software per the study sites.

22
 3.2.1 Data summary. A summary of the data collected for the variables of interest is

found in Table 3. Data for the AADT variable for each site is detailed in Appendix A.

Table 3: Data summary

Continuous Standard
Description Mean Minimum Maximum
Variables deviation
1 = one lane each direction
Number of
2 = two lane in each direction 1.923 1 3 0.484
lanes
3 = Three lane divided roadway
AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic 41640 5203 103458 24666
Posted
Corridor Posted Speed 57.69 45 70 6.038
speed limit
Categorical Count Count
Description Levels
Variables (Arterials) (Interstates)
Residential land use is predominately Residential 17 4
household settlement
Land use
Non-Residential 50 22
Non-residential land represents business
district, vegetation, swamp, and water.
Presence of The existence of a curb along the Yes 4 1
curb roadway No 63 25
Presence of The existence of any type of median Yes 28 23
a median other than a centerline of the roadway No 39 3
Shoulder The existence of shoulder along Yes 41 20
present roadway per road type No 26 5
The level of roadway at or above Above grade 0 9
Grade
ground At grade 67 17
Median The presence of a divided or undivided Divided 28 23
type median barrier on the roadway Not divided 39 3
Road Curve 26 17
The geometric alignment of roadway
alignment Tangent before curve 41 9
Road Good 42 17
The surface condition of the roadway
Surface
from a Google map observation Fair 25 9
Condition
Urban area is designated with a Urban 19 17
population of 5000 or more,
Area Type
Rural area with a population of 2500 to Rural 48 9
4999

23
3.3 Study Approach

3.3.1 85th percentile speed of vehicles on each segment. To evaluate the accuracy

of the posted speed limits, it was important to find the 85th percentile of the speed data

collected on each site. The 85th percentile of the speed is calculated by finding the total

number of vehicles that traverse a segment and plotting the cumulative percentile of the

vehicle count against the observed speeds recorded. Theoretically, to find the exact

percentage, Equation 1 is used.

𝑃𝐷 − 𝑃𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝑆𝐷 = (𝑠 − 𝑆𝑚𝑖𝑛 ) + 𝑆𝑚𝑖𝑛 ………………………(1)
𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 − 𝑃𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑚𝑎𝑥

Where 𝑆𝐷 = speed at percentile desired,

𝑃𝐷 = Percentile desired

𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 = higher cumulative percent

𝑃𝑚𝑖𝑛 =lower cumulative percent

𝑠𝑚𝑎𝑥 =higher speed

𝑠𝑚𝑖𝑛 = lower speed

The method used in the collection of speed data did not allow for vehicle count.

Therefore, to quantify the number of vehicles for each segment, the underlying assumption

was made:

• For every posted speed limit given for a segment, a proportion was calculated with

respect to the length of the segment to estimate the time frame for a vehicle to

traverse that segment. The results showed that, averagely, it took about a minute for a

24
 vehicle to traverse a segment. Therefore, to obtain the number of vehicles for that

segment, it was assumed that every speed data obtained per minute corresponded to a

vehicle count within the period.

The speed data was analyzed using R 3.6.1 as the integrated development interface (IDE).

Various R packages were used to compute the frequency, cumulative percentage of the

vehicle count, and the 85th percentile speed for each site. The analysis was repeated for

the other selected days to account for any discrepancies that occurred for a particular day

and improve accuracy. The 85th percentile operating speeds obtained were averaged for

each site and compared to the corresponding posted speed limit found. Figure 4 shows

the speed profile curve for a sample site.

Figure 4: Cumulative distribution function and trace for 85th percentile operating speed value for test
site 55.

25
 3.3.2 Linear regression model. Linear regression model has been used by many

researchers to predict speeds of vehicles in the past [21] [24] [28] [31]. However, for this

study, three linear regression models were developed from three dataset (interstate data,

arterial data and combined (interstate and arterial) dataset) and the outcome of the model was

compared to validate if these two functional classes can be combined given the difference

that exists in their operational characteristics due to the limited study sites.

A linear regression model is theoretically expressed in Equation 2.

Y = a + 𝑏1 𝑋1 + 𝑏2 𝑋2 + 𝑏3 𝑋3 + ⋯ … + 𝑏𝑖 𝑋𝑖 + e … … . . (2)

Where Y = the dependent variable (Difference in speeds between the 85th percentile

speed and the posted speed)

a = Intercept,
bi = Regression coefficients from the model,

Xi =Independent variables

e = Error term

3.3.3 Logistic regression model. The logistic regression is a classification algorithm. It

is used to predict a binary outcome (1 / 0, Yes / No, True / False) given a set of independent

variables. The logistic regression is used to measure the odds ratio when there are several

predictor variables. The response variable is binomial. It also predicts the probability of

occurrence of an event by fitting data to a logit function. The key benefit is that it eliminates

conflicting effects by examining the relationship of all variables together [34]. Theoretically,

a logistic regression used to model the probability of a given outcome is shown in Equation 3

below:

𝜆
log ( ) = a + 𝑏1 𝑥1 + 𝑏2 𝑥2 + 𝑏3 𝑥3 + ⋯ 𝑏𝑚 𝑥𝑚 + … … . . (3 )
1−𝜆
26
where, 𝛌 = the probability of an event

a = Intercept,

𝑏𝑖 = Regression coefficients from the model,

𝑥𝑖 = Predictor variables

The Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) recommends that speed

limits should be set within 5mph of the 85th percentile operating speed [7]. Using this as a

reference, a binary classification of the response variable was considered:

• Speed differences between the 85th percentile speed and the posted speed that fell

within 5mph range.

• Speed differences between the 85th percentile speed and the posted speed that fell
outside 5mph range.
The logistic regression model was developed to determine the effect of the predictor

variables and the odds ratio of the observed event of interest.

3.3.4 Measures of effectiveness. Three measures of effectiveness were used to check

the accuracy of the models developed:

R-squared and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for the linear regression model.

Area under the Curve (AUC) for the logistic regression model.

The equations for R-squared and RMSE are provided below:

𝑅𝑆𝑆
𝑅2 = 1 − 𝑇𝑆𝑆 …………………………………. (4)

where 𝑅2 = coefficient of determination

RSS= sum of squares of residuals

TSS= total sum of squares

27
 ∑𝑛1(𝑆𝐷𝑜 − 𝑆𝐷𝑖 )2
𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸 = √ … … … … … … … … … … (5)
𝑛

where 𝑆𝐷𝑜 = observed speed difference

𝑆𝐷𝑖 = predicted speed difference

n = total number of observations

Generally, the higher the R-squared and AUC, the better the predictive power of the model

[35] and lower RMSE indicates a good measure of how accurately the model predicts the

response [36].

3.3.5 Crash data and analysis. An evaluation of crash data for the study sites shows

the crash patterns and whether the crashes are caused by speed-related factors. The MUTCD

recommends that crash data for at least a 12-month period should be used for crash studies.

However, this period is considered too short by many road agencies to make a sound safety

judgement. Road authorities therefore consider crash data between 3 to 5 years [10]. For this

study, a five-year crash data was collected between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2020,

from the LaDOTD Highway Crash List and evaluated to determine the effect of the speed

difference on the frequency and severity of crashes of the road segments. Crash data were

collected only for the study sites of interest. The crash data were normalized by dividing the

number of crashes by segment length for every road to prevent unbiasedness. Contributing

factors of the crashes were collated as well.

3.4.3.1 Cross tabular analysis. Cross tabulation is an analytical method that

quantitatively establishes the relationship between multiple variables, and it is usually

performed on categorical data. The cross tabular analysis involved a pairwise comparison

between the crash characteristics and the two speed difference categories (within the 5mph

28
range and outside the 5mph range). Excel was used to perform this analysis. Data was

cleaned and categorized accordingly, and the different variable combinations were explored

to examine the contributing factors for a crash.

29
 4.0 Results and Discussion

The results from the computations and statistical analyses are presented in this

section.

4.1 Validation for Combined Data

Data collected for this analysis were taken from both interstate and arterial corridors.

Due to the limited data, combining data collected from these two functional classes was

considered to increase the data input for the model analysis. Realizing the difference in

functional class and operational characteristics of these two roadway classes, validation

analyses were performed to assess the impact of combining data from these two roadway

types. The validation analyses were performed using a linear regression model and a normal

distribution curve. Three linear regression models were developed, using data from the

arterial corridor, interstate corridor and the third model using the combined data for both

corridors.

The validation analysis for the linear regression compared the model R-squared value,

RMSE, and the estimated variable coefficients. A normal distribution curve was also plotted

to compare the means and standard deviations of both functional classes. The results for the

analyses are discussed in the section below.

4.1.1 Linear regression model for arterial data. Table 4 shows the model output

developed for arterials. 5 out of the 12 predictor variables were statistically significant (p-

value < 0.05) on the difference in speed for arterials. The positive sign indicated that as the

independent variable increased, the dependent variable increased. Also, the negative sign

indicated that an increase in the independent variable decreased the dependent variable.

Predictor variables such as posted speed limits increased the difference in speeds by 0.617.

30
An R-square of 0.576 was recorded, which was consistent with previous studies and showed

a good proportion of variance of the response variable explained by the predictor variables

[24] [25] [28] [31]. An RMSE of 4.127 was recorded which showed the fit of the model to

the data.

Table 4: Output from model for arterials.

Standard 95% confidence
Variables Estimate p-value
Error interval
Response Variable=speed difference (85th percentile speed-posted Lower Upper
speed) limit limit
Posted speed limit 0.617 0.104 0.000 0.408 0.826
Road Alignment (curve=1, 6.905
4.637 1.134 0.0001 2.370
tangent=0)
Area Type (rural=1, urban=0) -5.916 1.416 0.0000 -8.747 -3.084
Presence of curb (Yes=1, 0.0001 7.941 17.768
12. 854 2.456
No=0)

Median (Divided=1, Not 0.0001 -10.261 -5.358

-7.809 1.226
Divided=0)

R-Squared= 0.576, RMSE= 4.127 Number of sites =67

4.1.2 Linear regression model for interstate data. The estimated model in Table 5

shows a relationship between the posted speed limit and the difference in speeds (85th

percentile speeds-posted speeds) on interstates. Out of the 12 predictor variables, only the

posted speed limit was statistically significant using a p-value less than 0.05. The remaining

variables, such as the presence of a shoulder, the road surface conditions, and the presence of

a curb, showed no significant relationship. The posted speed showed a positive sign, which

implied that the difference in speeds increased as the posted speed limit increased. The R-

squared recorded was 0.56 which was in line with previous studies [24] [25] [28] [31] and an

RSME of 4.8 was recorded for the model as well [19].

31
Table 5: Output for model for interstate.
Variables Estimate Standard p-value 95% confidence
Error interval
Response Variable=speed difference (85th percentile speed ─ posted Lower Upper limit
speed) limit
Posted speed limit 0.883 0.159 0.000 0.555 1.211
R-squared: 0.562, RMSE= 4.800 Number of sites=26

4.1.3 Linear regression model for combined data. Table 6 showed the output when

both functional classes were combined. From the model, six predictor variables were found

to be statistically significant (p-value<0.05). The results showed that the posted speed limit

increased the difference in speeds by 0.697 and was found to be in close range with the

results obtained from arterials and interstates with estimate values of 0.617 and 0.883

respectively. RMSE values were compared as well. RSME values of 4.127, 4.800, and 4.718

were recorded for arterials, interstates and the combined (arterial and interstates) respectively

and this showed similar measures of errors between the predicted and the actual speed

difference for all three models. Similarly, R-squared values of 0.58, 0.56, and 0.53 were

recorded for all for arterials, interstates, and combined (arterial and interstates) respectively

indicating similar goodness of-fit. Previous studies conducted obtained R-squared ranging

from 0.44 to 0.90 for their models [23] [24] [25] [26].

Table 6: Output for model for combined data

Variables Estimate Standard p-value 95% confidence
Error interval
Response Variable=speed difference (85th percentile speed-posted speed) Lower Upper
limit limit
Posted speed limit 0.690 0.098 0.000 0.495 0.885
Area Type (rural=1, urban=0) -5.075 1.489 0.0010 -8.037 -2.113

32
 Presence of curb (Yes=1, No=0) 7.965 2.666 0.0037 2.664 13.266

AADT 0.0001156 0.00003 0.0023 0.000043 0.00018

Shoulder (yes=1, no=0) -2.836 1.276 0.0289 -5.373 -0.210
Median (divided=1, Not -6.046 1.361 0.001 -8.752 -3.340
divided=0)

R-Squared= 0.53, RSME=4.718 Number of sites =93

4.1.4 Normal distribution curve. To further validate the use of the combined dataset

for this study, a normal distribution curve was plotted for the differences in speeds for each

functional class of the road and for all the sites combined. Figure 5 shows the different plots.

It was observed that the mean of speed differences for arterials was in close range with the

mean of the speed difference for interstates. A mean of approximately 5mph was recorded

for arterials with about 4mph standard deviation compared to interstate with a mean of

6.3mph and a standard deviation of 4.3mph. When these two classes of roadways were

combined, a mean speed difference of 5.3mph was recorded with a standard deviation of

4mph. The speed differences between the 85th percentile speeds and the posted speeds on

these two functional classes indicated some similarities therefore, they can be combined for

further analysis given the difference in operational characteristics.

33
Figure 5: Normal distribution curves for arterials, interstates and combined data.

4.2 Logistic Regression Model

A logistic regression model was run in JMP 15 Pro for the 93 sites with all the 12 predictor

variables. The dependent variable was categorized into two: speed difference within 5mph

was classified as 0 and speed difference outside the 5mph was classified as 1. The purpose of

this model was to distinguish between the categories and the predictor variables that affected

34
each category. Table 7 below gives a summary and brief description, level and the reference

for each variable used in the model.

Table 7: Data summary for model.

Dependent or Y-variable- Speed difference (85th percentile speed-posted speed)
Number of sites = 93
Predictor or Independent Variables Levels Sample Size Base or Reference
Interstates 26 Interstates
Functional Class
Arterials 67
Urban 36 Urban
Area Type
Rural 57
Number of lanes 1, 2, 3 93 1
≤ 500 2 ≤ 500
AADT
> 500 91
Residential 21 Residential
Business District 17
Land-use type Swamp 4
Vegetation 49
Water 2
Yes 5 No
Presence of curb
No 88
Yes 47 No
Presence of a median
No 46
Yes 61 No
Shoulder present
No 32
Above grade 9 At grade
Grade
At grade 84
Divided 51 Not divided
Median type
Not divided 42
Curve (less than 0.7 43 Tangent before curve
Road alignment mile)
Tangent before curve 50
Good 59 Fair
Road Surface Condition
Fair 34

Table 8 shows the output obtained from the logistic regression model. The results show that

sites with curve road alignment were less likely to have difference in speeds between the 85th

percentile and the posted speeds outside 5mph range with odds ratio (OR) of 0.338 when

compared to sites with tangent road alignment. Similarly, sites in rural areas were less likely

35
to have differences in speeds between the 85th percentile and the posted speeds above 5mph

range (OR=0.336) compared to sites in urban areas. However, sites with higher posted speed

limits were more likely to have difference in speeds above the 5mph range with OR of 1.18

compared with sites with lower posted speed limits.

Table 8: Output from model.

Odds Ratio
Standard (Exponent
Variable Type Estimate Error p-value coefficient)
Intercept -7.7787253 2.7618727 0.0049
Posted Speed limit 0.16257298 0.0476935 0.0007* 1.176534
Road Alignment used -1.0841031 0.5353584 0.0429* 0.338205
Area Type used -1.0903726 0.5324474 0.0406* 0.336091
Shoulders or No Shoulders used 1.13696914 0.5871219 0.0528 3.117306
*Significant at 5% level of significance

4.2.1 AUC from analysis. The performance measurement used for the prediction

model was determined by using the Area under the Curve (AUC) [37]. Higher AUC

indicates a more accurate model. AUC can be interpreted as: (90-100) % = excellent, (80-90)

% = good, (70-80) % = fair, (60-70) % = poor, < 60% = fail [38]. From the logistic

regression model developed, an AUC of 0.781 was recorded which indicated that the model

was able to fairly distinguish between speed differences within 5mph range and speed

differences outside 5mph range.

4.3 Crash Analysis

4.3.1 Cross-tabular analysis. Out of the 93 sites, 86% (80) were found to have

recorded crashes. A total of 1150 crashes occurred, and after normalization of the crashes,

2713 crashes per mile were recorded.

36
 4.3.1.1 Number of crashes per mile within the 5mph range. Figure 6 shows a distribution

of the number of crashes per mile on road segments with the difference in speeds within the

5mph range. A total of 1053 crashes per mile were recorded. It can be observed that when the

difference between the 85th percentile speeds and the posted speeds was 1mph, very low

number of crashes were recorded (18crashes/mile). However, a speed difference of 3mph

recorded the highest number of crashes per mile (439). Generally, relatively higher number

of crashes per mile were recorded when the difference in speeds increased contrary to what

was expected given that operating speeds were in close range of posted speeds.

Number of crash/mile according to the speed difference

500
439
450
400
Number of crash/mile

350
300
235
250
199
200 162
150
100
50 18
0
1 2 3 4 5
Difference in speed (mph)

Figure 6: Number of crashes per mile within the 5mph range.

37
 4.3.1.2 Number of crashes per mile outside the 5mph range. Figure 7 shows a

distribution of the number of crashes per mile on roadways with difference in speeds outside

the 5mph range. A total of 1660 crashes per mile were recorded. From the plot, it can be

inferred in descending order that, speed differentials of 7mph contributed to the highest

number of crashes per mile recorded (634) followed by 10mph with 302 crashes per mile,

then, 15mph, 13mph, and 12mph with 273, 210, and 120 crashes per mile respectively. Out

of the 80 sites, 21 accounted for these high number of crashes and 52% of these sites were

curves. From observation, increasing difference in speeds did not necessarily account for a

higher number of crashes per mile as expected, and this may be due to factors such as the

area type, land use development, roadway alignment, and traffic volumes at the specific

locations.

Number of crash/mile according to the speed difference

700
634

600

500
Number of crash/mile

400
302
300 273
210
200
120
100 62
20 24 8
3 4
0
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17
Difference in speeds (mph)

Figure 7: Number of crashes per mile outside the 5mph range.

38
 4.3.1.3 Number of crashes per mile on land use and area type. The frequency of

crashes that occurred on each land use and area type was investigated. Higher number of

crashes were observed in urban non-residential areas for both speed difference categories

compared to rural non-residential. This was accounted for by the higher traffic volume on

urban roads with respect to rural roads. Lower number of crashes occurred for rural and

urban residential areas which were in line with expectation because of the high-speed

roadways considered for this study. Also speed limits ranged from 25mph to 40mph for

residential areas. Figure 8 illustrates the distribution of crashes per mile for each area type

and land use.

a) Speed difference within 5mph b) Speed difference outside 5mph range

range

Figure 8: Number of crashes per area type and land use.

39
 4.3.1.4 Number of crashes per mile according to road alignment and median type.

Exploring the number of crashes per mile that occurred on a divided and undivided roadway

with the different road alignment (tangent and curve), it was observed that about 20% of the

total crashes per mile occurred for on tangents with divided road segments with speed

differentials within 5mph and approximately 25% were on divided tangent road segment with

speed differential outside 5mph. However, a relatively higher number of crashes per mile

occurred on undivided tangent roadways with speed difference outside the 5mph range

compared with undivided tangents segment with speed differential within the 5mph. Similar

crash frequencies were also perceived for divided curve segments for both speed differentials

categories.

600 700
Number of crash per mile

500 600

400 500
400
300
300
200
200
100 100
0 0
Divided Undivided Divided Undivided
Curve Tangent Curve Tangent

a) Speed difference within 5mph range b) Speed difference outside 5mph

range
Figure 9: Number of crashes per mile according to road alignment and median type.

4.3.1.5 Number of crashes per mile and speed difference on severity condition.

Figure 10 shows the effects of the difference in speeds between the 85th percentile speeds of

vehicles and posted speeds and the severity of a crash. The graph represents the five different

crash severity levels: fatal, incapacitated injury (severe), non-incapacitated injury (moderate),

complaint, and no injury or property damage only. Approximately 57% of the total crashes

40
occurred on segments with speed differentials of 6mph and above compared to 43% with

speed differential of 5mph or less. Also from the graph, it can be inferred that higher

frequency of fatal and severe crashes occurred on segments with vehicle operating speeds

outside the 5mph range of the posted speeds which was expected. For crashes with severity

levels of moderate and complaint, similar percentages were observed for both speed

differential categories. However, the likelihood of a crash occurring was more common on

road segments with higher speed differentials.

Figure 10: Severity conditions for the two speed difference categories.

41
 4.3.1.6 Primary contributing factors. The primary contributing factors that

influenced the occurrence and the frequency of a crash were assessed. Contributing factors

were categorized into five which included violations, movement prior to the crash, condition

of the driver, vehicle conditions, roadway and surface condition. From the graph, it was

deduced that, out of the 2713 crashes per mile that occurred, approximately 49% were caused

by violations of traffic regulations on segments with speed difference outside the 5mph

range. Majority of these violations were found to be speed-related factors such as drivers

exceeding the posted speed limit or the safe speed on the roadway. Relatively, similar

number of crashes of 154 and 162 were recorded for roadways speed differential within

5mph range or outside the 5mph range, respectively when the primary contributing factor

was the movement of vehicles prior to the crash. This explained that the movements prior to

a crash were not influenced by speed differential hence could not account for the frequency

of crashes for both categories considered. Figure 11 gives a breakdown of the primary

contributing factors for each speed differential category.

Figure 11: Primary contributing factor for the two speed difference categories.

42
 4.3.1.7 Manner of collision. Figure 12 presents the different manner of collision for

road segments under the two speed differential categories. Three different manner of

collision was seen to be predominately high. They included rear-end collision, sideswipe-

same direction, and non-collision with motor vehicles. Studies have shown that higher

operating speeds of vehicle contributes to the occurrence of sideswipe crashes and higher

speed differentials can lead to the frequent occurrence of rear-end crashes [39]. Comparing

the two speed differential categories showed that the proportion of crashes from the total

crashes per mile(2713) as a result of rear-end collision, sideswipe-same direction, and non-

collision with motor were approximately 50% for roadways with speed difference outside

the 5mph range and 40% road segments with speed differential within 5mph respectively.

Other types of collision such as angle turn and opposite direction turn contributed to

relatively higher crashes on roads with higher speed differences outside the 5mph range.

Figure 12: Manner of collision for the two speed difference categories.

43
 4.3.1.8 Roadway departure. Figure 13 presents the distribution of the number of

crashes with reference to roadway departure. The FHWA defines a roadway departure crash

as a type of crash when the vehicle crosses the centerline or moves from the traveled way

[40]. From the graph, it can be inferred that higher number of crashes as a result of vehicles

leaving the road were observed on road segments with speed differences within the 5mph

range when compared to sites with speed differences outside the 5mph range. In further

investigation to understand why, a study conducted by Rahman et al [41] on the influential

factors of roadway departure on rural two-lane roads concluded that roadway departure

crashes were strongly associated with factors such as animal presences and intoxication, and

absence of streetlight. This pointed out that speeds did not necessarily cause a vehicle to

leave the travel lane hence explaining the lower number of crashes segments for both speed

differential categories, especially segments with speed difference outside the 5mph.

Figure 13: Number of crashes according to roadway departure for the two speed difference
categories.

44
 5.0 Conclusion and Recommendations

The main objective of the study was to evaluate the use of the 85th percentile in

determining the posted speeds on roadways. This involved identifying potential sites for

operational speed data collection, evaluating the 85th percentile of each site, and conducting

an analysis to determine the possible relationship between roadway features and the

difference in speeds between the 85th percentile speeds and the posted speed. A crash

analysis was also done to assess the impacts of these speed discrepancies on the roadway.

5.1 Findings and Conclusions of Linear Regression Model

The linear regression model developed in JMP 15 Pro was used to validate the use of

combined data from arterials and interstates for the study using the estimates, the R-square

values and the RMSE. The results showed that:

• The posted speed limit was found to be statistically significant with a p-value less

than 0.05 for all three models with estimates of 0.617, 0.883, and 0.690 for arterials,

interstates, and the combined dataset, respectively.

• Similar R-square values of 0.58, 0.56, and 0.53 were recorded for arterials,

interstates, and the combined dataset, respectively.

• RMSE values of 4.127, 4.800, and 4.718 were recorded for arterials, interstates and

the combined dataset and showed very similar measures of errors for all three models.

5.2 Findings for Normal Distribution Curve

A normal distribution curve was plotted to further validate the use of combine dataset for

arterials and interstates using the mean and the standard deviation of the difference in speeds

for each roadway class and the combined dataset. The results showed that:

45
 • A mean value recorded for the difference in speeds for interstate was 6.3mph with a

standard deviation of 4.3

• A mean value of approximately 5mph with a standard deviation of about 4 was

recorded for arterials.

• Similarly, when the dataset was combined, a mean of 5.3mph with a standard

deviation of 4 was recorded.

5.3 Findings and Conclusions from the Logistic Regression Model.

The dependent variable was categorized into two: speed difference within 5mph was

classified as 0 and speed difference outside the 5mph was classified as 1. A logistic

regression model was used to distinguish between the two categories and the odds that a

predictor variable had any effect on the dependent variable. The results obtained from the

model is as follows:

• The predictor variables that were statistically significant with a p-value less than 0.05

were the road alignment, area type, and posted speed limit.

• Sites with curve road alignment with a radius less than 0.7 miles were less likely to

have difference in speeds between the 85th percentile and the posted speeds outside

5mph range with odds ratio (OR) of 0.338 when compared to sites with tangent road

alignment.

• Sites in rural areas were less likely to have differences in speeds between the 85th

percentile and the posted speeds above 5mph range (OR=0.336) compared to sites in

urban areas.

46
 • However, for sites with higher posted speed limits, higher difference in speeds above

the 5mph range were more likely to occur with OR of 1.18 compared with sites with

lower posted speed limits.

5.4 Findings and Conclusions from Crash Analysis

A five-year crash data was evaluated and analyzed to determine the speed

discrepancies on the frequency and level of severity of the selected roadways. The results

showed that

• Out of the 93 sites, 86% (80) recorded crashes

• A total of 2713 crashes per mile were found these sites

Two speed differential categories were used for this analysis. They included a)

roadways with speed differences within 5mph range and b) roadways with speed differences

outside 5mph range. The purpose was to compare the crashes that occurred on road segments

between the two categories and identify if there were trends and similarities. The findings are

listed below according to each category.

• A total of 1053 crashes per mile were recorded on segments with speed difference

within 5mph compared to 1660 crashes per mile with speed difference outside 5mph.

• More crashes occurred in urban non-residential areas and on tangent road segments

for both speed differential categories.

• Higher fatal and severe crashes were observed on roads with speed difference outside

the 5mph compared with segment within the 5mph range.

• The primary contributing factor for the occurrence of a crash for both speed

differential categories was identified as violations of traffic regulations.

47
 • Rear-end, sideswipe same direction, and non-collision with motor vehicles were the

three prevalent manner of collision on road segment for the two speed differential

categories.

• Roadway departure was observed to be higher with on segments with speed

differential within the 5mph range compared to road segments outside the 5mph

range.

5.5 Recommendations

Based on the findings and conclusions from the analyses, the following recommendations

were made:

• 85th percentile speeds of vehicles are greatly affected based on roadway

characteristics. Therefore, roadway features should be considered as equally

important as the 85th percentile operating speeds when establishing posted speeds at a

site.

• A survey conducted by the ITE Engineering council Technical committee survey [42]

indicated that speed limits can sometimes be reduced due to external or political

pressures. Therefore, sites with existing low speed limits when compared to the 85th

percentile speeds should be investigated to identify the actual cause and be adjusted

accordingly.

• Law enforcement and transportation agencies should put in place more measures to

reduce the number of crashes caused due to the violation of traffic regulations.

48
5.6 Limitations

• On-site collection of data was not considered because of the source of the speed data.

Therefore, characteristics of roadway such as the measurement of shoulders was

inhibited.

• The source of data did not allow for vehicular count therefore an assumption was

made on the vehicular count for obtaining the 85th percentile operating speeds.

• Also, due to the small sample size of the dataset, fair AUC value was recorded for the

logistic regression model and relatively smaller RSME values were recorded. Larger

sample size could have generated better AUC and RSME value.

49
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 =70%20mph%20on%20interstate%20highways,55%20mph%20on%20other%20roads.
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[25] K. S. Schurr, B. W. Spargo and R. R. Huff, "Predicted 95th Percentile Speeds on
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[26] R. Lamm, E. M. Choueiri, J. C. Hayward, Paluri and A. Paluri, "Possible Design

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53
 Appendix A
Table: 9 Results for the 85th Percentile Operating Speeds of Sites and their Corresponding
Posted Speeds.
Operating speed
Posted Speed (85th percentile) Difference between
Sites limit(mph) (mph) speed(mph)
1
55 54 1
2
65 53 12
3
50 54 -4
4
65 63 2
5
60 57 3
6
45 53 -8
7
45 30 15
8
45 57 -12
9
65 63 2
10
50 47 3
11
50 47 3
12 45 40 5
13
55 45 10
14
55 60 -5
15
55 54 1
16
45 32 13
17
45 40 5
18
55 52 3
19
55 58 -3
20
55 59 -4
21
55 58 -3
22
55 60 -5
23
55 59 -4

54
24
55 60 -5
25
65 66 -1
26
65 67 -2
27
65 66 -1
28
55 60 -5
29
55 59 -4
30
55 58 -3
31
55 57 -2
32
50 59 -9
33
70 67 3
34
60 57 3
35
60 63 -3
36
60 56 4
37
55 52 3
38
55 46 9
39
70 68 2
40
55 50 5
41
55 46 9
42
60 53 7
43
65 58 7
44
60 62 -2
45
60 60 0
46
50 60 -10
47
55 58 -3
48
55 56 -1
49
60 55 5
50
50 43 7

55
51
50 59 -9
52
50 62 -12
53
60 63 -3
54
60 63 -3
55
55 65 -10
56
55 66 -11
57
50 67 -17
58
50 66 -16
59
55 47 8
60
55 49 6
61
50 57 -7
62
45 48 -3
63
55 53 2
64
55 55 0
65
60 56 4
66
65 64 1
67
65 64 1
68
55 42 13
69
55 43 12
70
65 67 -2
71
65 67 -2
72
55 45 10
73
55 65 -10
74
55 62 -7
75
55 65 -10
76
45 57 -12
77 45 55 -10

56
 78
65 65 0
79
45 42 3
80
60 67 -7
81
60 66 -6
82
60 66 -6
83
55 57 -2
84
55 57 -2
85
55 57 -2
86
55 57 -2
87
65 63 2
88
65 62 3
89
65 65 0
90
65 62 3
91
65 61 4
92
65 62 3
93
65 63 2

Table: 10 AADT data for each site.

Sites AADT Sites AADT
1 356 50 3960
2 43466 51 25438
3 43466 52 79303
4 12810 53 69089
5 61215 54 69089
6 16440 55 7892
7 38456 56 7892
8 4229 57 25438
9 14641 58 25438
10 1749 59 4228
11 1749 60 3248

57
12 14012 61 25428
13 4506 62 9066
14 1954 63 16529
15 1114 64 16529
16 38456 65 15276
17 3651 66 14641
18 589 67 14641
19 1106 68 4137
20 1106 69 4137
21 1106 70 5722
22 1106 71 5722
23 1106 72 7892
24 1106 73 4696
25 5715 74 15539
26 5715 75 7892
27 5715 76 4229
28 1954 77 4229
29 1954 78 7455
30 1358 79 3784
31 1358 80 45655
32 15539 81 45655
33 25236 82 45655
34 5203 83 1575
35 38017 84 1575
36 84321 85 1636
37 5306 86 1636
38 5306 87 7455
39 25236 88 7455
40 17925 89 7455
41 4228 90 7455
42 103458 91 7455
43 13236 92 7455
44 13236 93 8070
45 38017
46 38017
47 864
48 67
49 61215

58
Ofori-Addo, Hilda. Bachelor of Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and
Technology, Spring 2017; Master of Science, University of Louisiana at Lafayette,
Spring 2021
Major: Engineering, Civil Engineering concentration
Title of Thesis: Evaluating the Accuracy of Using the 85th Percentile Operating Speed to
Determine Posted Speed Limits on Road Segments.
Thesis Director: Dr. Elisabeta Mitran
Pages in Thesis: 72; Words in Abstract: 297

Abstract
Speed is regarded as an important component of transportation infrastructure and

design because it, directly and indirectly measures the safety and mobility of the roadway.

Posted speed limits are instituted on roadways because it generally reflects the safe and

reasonable speed assumed by most drivers on the roadway. The MUTCD proposes that

transportation agencies set speed limits within a 5mph range of the 85th percentile speed of

free-flowing traffic. However, some previous studies have shown inconsistencies in using

this percentile as the base speed. Wrongfully estimating posted speeds tend to result in

increasing the frequency or the level of severity of a crash. Thus, the study seeks to

investigate the use of the 85th percentile operating speed as a key consideration factor for

setting posted speed limits on roadways.

A total of 93 sites were selected in both rural and urban areas consisting of 67

arterials and 26 interstates across Louisiana. The speed data was obtained from INRIX, a

third-party vendor. Using MUTCD recommendation as a reference, a logistic regression

model was developed to distinguish between speed differences that fell within 5mph range of

the posted speeds and speed differences that fell outside 5mph range. The results showed that

curved sites with a radius less than 0.7 miles and sites in rural areas were less likely to have

difference in speeds outside 5mph range with odds ratios (OR) of 0.338 and 0.336,

respectively. Also, higher posted speed limits on sites resulted in higher difference in speeds

59
above the 5mph range with an OR of 1.18. A five-year crash data was evaluated to determine

the effects of speed discrepancies on the frequency and level of severity of the selected

roadways. The results showed that more crashes were observed on roadways when the speed

difference was outside 5mph range.

60
 Biographical Sketch
Hilda Ofori-Addo was born on July 18, 1994, in Accra, Ghana. She pursued her college

education in civil engineering at Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology

(KNUST) in Kumasi, Ashanti Region, Ghana where she earned her Bachelor of Science in

civil engineering in 2018. In fall 2019, she gained admission to University of Louisiana at

Lafayette to pursue a master’s degree in civil engineering. Her research is focused on

evaluating the accuracy of using the 85th percentile operating speed to determine posted speed

limits on road segments. She graduated in the spring of 2021 with a Master of Science in

engineering (M.S.E) with a civil engineering concentration.

61
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